Metros with the Most COVID-Impacted Workforces

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Metros with the Most COVID-Impacted Workforces

April 22nd, 2020 Volusion Leave a comment

The coronavirus pandemic has led to an unprecedented economic shutdown as thousands of “nonessential” businesses have closed their doors. The crisis disproportionately affects the 21.3% of American workers in retail, leisure, and hospitality who not only face lack of work, but also suffer from long-standing, below-average wages. According to the latest annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for workers in the retail trade and leisure and hospitality sectors was just $19.70 and $16.55 in 2019, compared to $28 per hour across all workers.

Overall, the share of workers in retail, leisure, and hospitality increased steadily from 1970 to 2016 when it peaked at 21.8%. This trend was largely driven by an increasing share of employment in restaurants and bars, while employment in retail stagnated. Even though the last few years have seen a modest decline in the share of workers in these two sectors overall, more than one-fifth of all U.S. workers were employed in either retail trade or leisure and hospitality in 2019, totaling over 32 million workers.

The share of employment in these industries varies widely across cities and states based on local economic conditions and levels of tourism. Nevada and Hawaii lead the nation in the share of employment in retail, leisure, and hospitality at 35.5% and 30.1%, respectively. At the low end, Kansas and Minnesota both have about 19% of their workforce employed in these sectors.

To find the locations with the workforces most impacted by COVID-19, researchers at Volusion used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau. The researchers ranked metro areas according to the share of workers employed in the retail trade and leisure and hospitality industries. Researchers also looked at the total number of retail trade workers, the total number of leisure and hospitality workers, the cost of living, and the percent of residents below the poverty level.

To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 people were included in the analysis. Additionally, metro areas were grouped into cohorts based on population size. Small metros have 100,000 to 349,000 residents; midsize metros have 350,000 to 999,999 residents; and large metros have at least 1,000,000 residents.

Here are the large metropolitan areas with the greatest share of employment in retail, leisure, and hospitality, making their workforces the most impacted during the coronavirus pandemic:

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Volusion’s website: https://www.volusion.com/blog/cities-with-the-most-impacted-workforces-during-coronavirus/

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Barley Market Rose 3.3% to $33.7B

April 22nd, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Barley – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global barley market revenue amounted to $33.7B in 2018, picking up by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Barley Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of barley consumption in 2018 were Russia (12M tonnes), China (9.7M tonnes) and Spain (9.5M tonnes), together accounting for 23% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of barley consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China, while barley consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($2.5B), Spain ($2.4B) and Russia ($2.3B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, together accounting for 21% of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of barley per capita consumption in 2018 were Spain (203 kg per person), Canada (167 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (130 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of barley per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China, while barley per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of barley production in 2018 were Russia (17M tonnes), France (11M tonnes) and Germany (9.6M tonnes), with a combined 27% share of global production. Australia, Spain, Canada, Ukraine, Turkey, the UK, Argentina, Kazakhstan and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of barley production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Kazakhstan, while barley production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, the global barley exports totaled 37M tonnes, falling by -4.7% against the previous year. In value terms, barley exports stood at $7.5B (IndexBox estimates).

Exports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of barley exports in 2018 were Australia (6.9M tonnes), France (6.6M tonnes) and Russia (5.4M tonnes), together finishing at 51% of total export. Ukraine (3.6M tonnes) occupied a 9.7% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Argentina (6.9%), Canada (6%) and Germany (5%). The following exporters – Romania (1,336K tonnes), Kazakhstan (1,052K tonnes), the UK (852K tonnes), Denmark (776K tonnes) and Hungary (567K tonnes) – together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kazakhstan, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest barley supplying countries worldwide were Australia ($1.4B), France ($1.3B) and Russia ($1B), together comprising 50% of global exports. Ukraine, Argentina, Canada, Germany, Romania, the UK, Denmark, Kazakhstan and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average barley export price amounted to $202 per tonne, rising by 14% against the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Canada ($236 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($145 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Most Affected Industries By US-China Trade War

March 31st, 2020 Sarah Morris Leave a comment

Since Donald Trump became president, the US and Chinese governments have been at loggerheads after the Trump administration started imposing hiked tariffs on goods coming from China. This came hot on the heels of a trade deal that the two governments had been negotiating on, a deal that was supposed to strengthen trade between the two global economic powerhouses. Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods are now being tariffed at 25%, up from 10%. China is threatening to come up with stringent countermeasures, which threatens to precipitate a full-blown trade war.

Trade experts are predicting that American companies that import goods from China will be paying unreasonably hefty taxes to their government by 2020. That could cripple their operations.

This trade tension has precipitated many harsh and far-reaching consequences. Manufacturers and importers in the US are now cutting costs, postponing key business deals, and putting off investments in a bid to cushion the business-crippling impact of the trade wars. Moody’s Analytics- an American economic research firm- estimates that this has already cost 300,000 Americans their jobs and if things don’t change for the better, more than 450,000 job opportunities will have been quashed by the end of 2019. This impact is being felt across industries, although some industries have been affected more than others. Here are some of these industries:

The Energy Sector

Steel and aluminum are very important to America’s energy sector. They are used to construct oil pipelines, to build solar panels, to distribute electric power- you name it! President Trump has proposed an additional tax on aluminum and steel imports from China, which has already caused the country’s energy PD to hike significantly. Projects in the energy sector will keep getting pricier, which in turn will force consumers to pay higher prices for clean energy. If the price gets out of hand, there is a serious danger of many Americans ditching the expensive clean energy for the cheaper dirty energy.

Automobiles

American automakers sell most of their products in the Chinese market. In 2018, as a countermeasure, the Chinese government raised tariffs from 15% to 40% for all automobiles entering its market from the US. This hasn’t affected the Chinese so much, bearing in mind that the Asian nation has a thriving automobile sector that can satisfy the local market.

On the other hand, American electric automakers including Tesla Inc. (TSLA) will be feeling the pinch in the long run if the China-US trade tension deteriorates. Auto parts sellers will also stand to lose if the situation won’t improve. That being said, things are looking up for this industry as the Chinese government promised to suspend the tariffs as an act of goodwill. If the US could return the gesture, fortunes are likely to turn in favor of American automakers.

Translation Industry

Digital technology has allowed many American firms to expand their products and services in China. The Asian market helps companies from the west to generate a consistent growth rate of 4-5% per annum, sometimes more. That is why localization services have become very marketable in the recent past: If you want to expand in China, you should consider hiring professional translation services to handle all your localization projects, failure to which you could greatly hurt your chances of understanding or impressing your Chinese customers. But then with the growing trade tension, lesser companies will be keen to move to China in the future, which will mean lesser need for translation services. The translation industry in China could really suffer going forward.

Food and Agribusiness

The Chinese government cut off imports of corn, soybeans, nuts, lobster, and other farm products from the US. The American farmers are now struggling to find a market for their produce, which has, in turn, affected their productivity. Tractor manufacturers and farm input sellers are also feeling the pinch. Processed food companies in the US might be forced to lay off workers and close some of their processing plants if things remain as they are.

Tech Sector

Most tech companies in the US have opened shops in China, some of them including NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Intel Corp. (INTC). Chinese tech manufacturers, on the other hand, depend on American semiconductor suppliers to run their businesses. An escalation in the U.S.-China trade war could really hurt tech traders in both countries.

Conclusion

The tension between the U.S. and Chinese officials could end up hurting key industries in both economies. It could be a battle over who will control international trade, but it can easily boil over and become counterproductive. The sad thing is that no one really knows for sure if the tension will rage on or we still are going to witness more draconian tariffs. Only time will tell.

Archives, Features, Global Trade Daily, Stories

THE EAGLERAIL HAS LANDED: CEO MIKE WYCHOCKI PUSHES A “NO BRAINER” WHEN IT COMES TO MOVING SHIPPING CONTAINERS AT CONGESTED PORTS

March 30th, 2020 Matt Coker Leave a comment

It’s amazing where new logistics solutions come from. They are usually born by veteran shippers with visions on how to improve an existing operation. Or it can be a customer or customers seeking help in conquering a specific challenge that eventually resonates throughout the industry.

Then there is the inception of Chicago-based EagleRail Container Logistics’ signature solution. It can be traced to a pitch meeting for a new monorail in Brazil that was attended by a port authority official who was there more as a cheerleader than a participant.

Watching a Chicago marketing man’s PowerPoint presentation about his company’s passenger monorail system to local leaders in São Paulo eight years ago, the port representative, Jose Newton Gama, marveled at how the magnetic levitation (Maglev) trains holding people would be suspended under overhead tracks.

Then the Brazilian known by friends as Newton raised his hand.

“Excuse me?” he asked the Americano. “Could your system be adapted to hold shipping containers?”

That had never occurred to project designers, whose monorail cars for passengers are much lighter than would be required for cargo containers hauled by ships, trucks and freight trains. But the marketing man shared Gama’s question with his colleagues in the Windy City, and that planted the seed that eventually bore EagleRail Container Logistics.

Chief Executive Officer Mike Wychocki was an early investor who eventually bought out that marketing man, but the first EagleRail system is named “Newton” after the Brazilian who now sits on the company’s board of advisors. “He’s a great guy,” says Wychocki during a recent phone interview. “Newton is our biggest cheerleader.”

Wychocki’s no slouch with the pom-poms himself, having pitched EagleRail at 40 ports in 20 countries over the past five years. His company, which has offices around the world, is developing its first prototype in China, and studies are underway at six ports as EagleRail sets about raising $20 million in capital. (The window for small investments had just closed when Wychocki was interviewed. His company has since shifted its focus to large investors.)

The way ports have operated for decades left no need for a system like EagleRail’s. Big ships dock, cranes remove containers stacked on their decks and each box is then moved onto the back of a flatbed truck that either hauls it to a distribution center or an intermodal yard. Until recent years, no one really thought of disrupting the process because, as Wychocki puts it, “you could always find cheaper truck drivers.”

However, truck driver shortages, port-area air pollution and congestion caused by the time it takes to load and unload ever-larger ships have prompted serious soul searching when it comes to short hauls. Expanding the size of ports is often not an option due to the cities that have grown to surround them. This has led to the creation of large container parks for trucks and/or freight trains within a few miles of ports, but getting boxes to those remains problematic—at a time when megaships are only making matters more difficult.

“There is an old saying that ports are where old trucks go to die,” says Wychocki, who ticks off as problems associated with that mode of moving containers pollution, maintenance and fuel costs, as well as the issues of public safety because some drivers essentially live inside of their vehicles, which can attract prostitution and leave behind litter and human waste. Adding even more of these dirty trucks would necessitate more road building, which only adds to environmental concerns.

With ground space at ports a constantly shrinking commodity, tunneling underground may be viewed as an option. But Wychocki points out that many ports have emerged on unstable ground like backfill, and water, power and sewer lines are usually below what’s under the streets beyond port gates. The idea of a hyperloop has been bandied about, but it would require emptying shipping containers at the port, loading the contents into smaller boxes, sending those through to another yard, and then repacking the shipping containers on the other side. “That defeats the whole point” of relieving port congestion, the EagleRail CEO says.

Ah, but every port has unused air space, which is what Wychocki’s company seeks to exploit. “If an Amazon warehouse can lift and shuttle packages robotically,” he says, “why not do the same with a 60,000-pound package? Go to a warehouse. See how Amazon works with packages. They use overhead light rails. It’s an obvious idea, so obvious. It’s a no brainer when you think about it.”

Yes, Amazon also uses drones, but can you imagine the size it would have to be to carry a 60,000-pound shipping container? Wychocki sees a suspended container track as an extension of the cranes on every loading dock worldwide, which is why EagleRail systems are also all-electric and composed of the same crane hardware to avoid snags when it comes to replacing parts.

However, Wychocki is quick to note EagleRail is not a total solution when it comes to port congestion. He calculates that among the short-haul trucks leaving a port, 50 percent are going to 500 different locations, many of which are different states away, while the other half is bound for just a couple nearby destinations. EagleRail is geared toward the latter, and the problem with getting containers to them “is not technological; it’s who controls the five kilometers between the port and the intermodal facility,” he says.

Lifting equipment at ports “is exactly the same in all 200 countries,” he adds. “The part that is not the same is the back end. What is the port’s configuration? Where do the roads come in? What we do is form a consortium and build it with each local player, such as the port authority, the road authority, the national rail company, the power company. Getting everyone involved helps get procurement and environmental rights of way.”

He concedes that getting everyone on board “varies by location,” but when it comes to environmental concerns “everyone’s kind of wanting to do this because it means fewer trucks, and the power companies would prefer the use of electricity (over burning diesel). It sounds harder than it is to get everyone rowing in the same direction.”

Wychocki points to another bonus with EagleRail: It allows for total control of one’s intermodal yard because containers come and go on the same circular route—all day long. “We take this on as a disruptive business model,” he says, noting that short-haul trucks generally involve the use of data-chain-breaking clipboards and mobile phones. EagleRail systems track containers on them in real-time, rolling in all customs paperwork and billing invoices automatically.

“It’s amazing, I just came from the Port of Rotterdam, where I was a keynote,” Wychocki says. “Even the biggest ports in the world like Antwerp were saying, ‘This is great. Why isn’t anyone else doing it?’”

Actually, EagleRail accidentally created direct competition. Wychocki explains that during the initial design phase, his company worked with a foreign monorail concern whose cars used what were essentially aircraft tires rolling inside a closed channel. Concerns about maintaining a system that would invariably involve frequently changing tires—and thus slowing down operations—caused EagleRail to reject that design in favor of another third-party’s calling for steel-on-steel wheels. The designer with tires is pressing on with its own system and without EagleRail.

“I’m glad we didn’t go that route,” says Wychocki, who nonetheless expects more serious competition once EagleRail systems are up and running. Fortunately for the company, there are plenty of ports bursting at the seams that cannot wait that long. Wychocki says a question he invariably gets after pitching EagleRail is: “Where were you 10 years ago? Usually, there is an urgency.”

That’s why “our goal was to get out of the gate fast, build market share and our brand and create a quasi-franchise network,” says Wychocki, whose business model has EagleRail owning 25 percent of a system while the port and other local entities own the rest.

He estimates that within 10 years, 12 EagleRail systems will be operating. If that sounds like a pipe dream, consider that his company’s newsletter boasts 3,000 subscribers before a system is even up and running. Wychocki does not credit “brilliant marketing” for that keen interest. “It’s because every port’s problems are getting worse. Everyone is squealing about what to do with these giant ships that cannot be unloaded fast enough. They are desperate.”

Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

BORN TO TRADE

March 23rd, 2020 Ayelet Haran Leave a comment

The stork brings more than babies

My husband and I welcomed our first child, a baby boy, in January. As we prepared for his arrival, we quickly learned that as first-time parents, we will be acquiring an enormous amount of baby stuff, in complete disproportion to the expected size of our newborn. Our apartment was rapidly inundated with a car seat, stroller, swing and Pack ‘n Play, playmats, toys, onesies, hats, pajamas, burp cloths, swaddles, bibs, a crib, a changing table, and of course, mounds of diapers and wipes.

The baby product industry is booming. Sales reached an estimated $10.9 billion in 2017 and are expected to reach $16.8 billion by 2025. And with the pressures placed on first-time moms to be the perfect parent, it’s no wonder we shell out thousands of dollars in the baby’s first year to keep them warm and safe, hoping to avoid the 3am cries as much as possible.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the annual spending on a child under two was $12,680 in 2015 (for a married couple with two children). While most of that spending was allocated to housing and child care, an average family still spent over $1,000 a year on baby products, excluding food.

No surprise, the three big components of baby-related expenditure – diapers, car seats and toys — are global industries.

Dry and clean derrieres

A first-time parent might be surprised by the number of diapers they will change in their child’s first year. At two and a half months, my son goes through 6-8 diapers a day, not including the occasional mishap affectionately known as a “poop explosion”. And while I applaud families that choose to use cloth reusable diapers, by necessity or out of eco-consciousness, we opted for disposable diapers in my family.

The global disposable diaper market is dominated by two brands – Pampers made by Procter & Gamble (P&G) and Huggies made by Kimberly-Clark. Together, the two companies control roughly 80 percent of the global disposable diaper market. The disposable diaper industry has been undergoing significant changes in recent decades, driven by a decline in birth rates in the West and increased demand in China and other emerging markets. Both P&G and Kimberly-Clark have complex supply chains that span dozens of facilities around the world to meet parental needs.

China only recently became a significant market for disposable diapers, with Pampers leading the way. In the 1990s, P&G launched a low-cost diaper brand in China that failed to make inroads locally. Recognizing that Chinese consumers valued the diaper’s softness and ability to absorb over price, the company reentered the market in 2010 with higher-end products targeted at China’s middle class, and sales have been growing strongly since. In 2018, diaper sale revenues in China reached $7.6 billion. American diaper producers are working to convince Chinese parents to ditch kaidangku, Chinese back split-pants, which allow young toddlers to squat anywhere. While kaidangku are still popular among China’s rural population, China’s middle class is rapidly adopting the disposable diaper lifestyle.

Strapped in for safety

Car seats are often one of the most expensive purchases new parents will make in the baby’s first year. Given the stringent safety requirements for baby car seats, large international brands generally do not face significant competition from low-cost, lower-quality brands.

The global car seat market was estimated at $7 billion in 2018, with infant seats representing 32 percent of global sales. Leading companies are headquartered around the world: Dorel, Quinny and Cosco are brands based in Canada; Artsana Group’s Chicco brand and Kiwi Baby are Italian; UPPAbaby and Newell Brands, which make Graco and Baby Jogger are based in the United States; Goodbaby, the maker of Cybex and Evenflo, is based in Hong Kong; Renolux is based in France, Mothercare in the U.K., and InfaSecure is headquartered in Australia – to name a few.

While the companies above are headquartered around the world, many of their brands are manufactured in China (a few high-end brands are also made in the United States). Over the last several years, the U.S. trade war with China placed significant pressure on the car seat industry. While the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) provided exemptions from Chinese tariffs to some safety products, including finished car seats, the components and materials used to manufacture the car seats did not receive the same treatment, placing increasing costs on U.S.-based car seat manufacturers. Advocating for an exemption for all baby safety products, the Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association argued that an increase in the costs of these products could put children, especially those in low-income families, at risk. And while the conclusion of the phase one trade negotiation with China suspended the tariffs, the risk to the industry remains.

Play time

You may be surprised to learn, much like my husband was, that toys play an important role in a baby’s development from their first weeks of life. Toys not only entertain, but they help develop key skills such as creativity, innovative thinking, and other important developmental milestones.

The global toy market dwarfs all other products for children, reaching $90.4 billion in 2018. The top seven toy companies in the world account for 55 percent of global toy sales. These include Mattel (with brands such as Barbie and Fisher-Price), Hasbro (making the Disney toys), Lego, and others. It’s estimated that 80 percent of all toys produced worldwide are manufactured in China and 85 percent of U.S. toy imports are from China. It’s no wonder that the trade war between the U.S. and China had a significant impact on the toy industry.

While the toy industry managed to avoid the 15 percent tariffs that were planned for December 2019 on Chinese-made toys, the tariff threats resulted in a turbulent environment for two large U.S. toy makers Hasbro and Mattel. Shares of both companies fell in late 2019, driven in part by the tariff uncertainty. As toy manufacturers generally operate with low margins in a highly volatile market driven by consumer preferences, most manufacturers are hoping for a long-term resolution of the trade tensions with China to ease their pressures ahead of the next holiday season.

A bottomless pit

As my son approaches three months, I am amazed at how quickly my purchasing habits have changed. I’m already thinking of our next car seat that can transition with him as he gets older, looking into the weight recommendations for different diaper sizes, and researching new toys to keep him (and myself) interested. And while we may slow down our purchasing to prevent a total baby takeover of our apartment, one thing is absolutely clear – we will always need to buy more diapers.

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Ayelet Haran is a contributor to TradeVistas. She is a government affairs and policy executive in the life sciences industry. She holds a Master’s of Public Administration degree in International Economic Policy from Columbia University.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Global Cement Market Reached $305B, With China Leading the Expansion

March 19th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Cement – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global cement market revenue amounted to $305.4B in 2018, flattening at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Consumption By Country

China (2,363M tonnes) remains the largest cement consuming country worldwide, accounting for 58% of total volume. Moreover, cement consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (289M tonnes), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by the U.S. (101M tonnes), with a 2.5% share. From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +5.2%.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, the global cement production totaled 4,072M tonnes, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

In value terms, cement production amounted to $289.7B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2018.