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Asia’s Milk Production Is Expected to Increase by 2% in 2020

milk

Asia’s Milk Production Is Expected to Increase by 2% in 2020

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Whole Fresh Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

After four years of growth, the Asian whole fresh milk market decreased by -2.1% to $309.6B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the past decade. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 with an increase of 15% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $316.1B in 2018 and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Consumption by Country in Asia

India (198M tonnes) remains the largest whole fresh milk consuming country in Asia, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Pakistan (47M tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by China (35M tonnes), with a 9.6% share.

From 2009 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India totaled +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Pakistan (+3.2% per year) and China (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, India ($146.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Pakistan ($37.3B). It was followed by China.

The countries with the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption in 2019 were Uzbekistan (339 kg per person), Turkey (281 kg per person), and Pakistan (231 kg per person).

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Uzbekistan, while whole fresh milk per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2020-2030

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 477M tonnes by the end of 2030.

According to FAO projections, Asian production is expected to increase by 2% in 2020 due to expected growth in India, Pakistan, and China, while Turkey may experience a decline. India, the world’s largest milk producer, is projected to increase production by 2.6 percent, or 5 million tonnes. The increase expected this year reflects the efforts of the vast network of rural cooperatives that have been mobilized to maintain milk collection despite the pandemic lockdown. Given the loss of sales in the foodservice industry due to the COVID-19 lockdown, large volumes of milk were sent for processing to drying plants, which were reported to operate at almost full capacity.

Pakistan’s milk production is projected to increase by an average of 3% due to an increase in the herd population.

In China, where the sector has been recovering since 2018, it is projected that milk production will increase by almost 3% in 2020, amid ongoing consolidation of farms and increased efficiency of large dairy enterprises. The introduction of stringent food safety standards by the government has also increased consumer confidence in Chinese milk, which has helped support domestic production growth.

According to FAO forecasts, milk production in Japan will grow, which will be supported by the government measures offered to farmers to manage excess milk supplies and stabilize prices. This is despite a drop in milk consumption in the first months of the year after the government declared a state of emergency and closed schools amid concerns about COVID-19.

Production in Asia

In 2019, production of whole fresh milk in Asia rose to 368M tonnes, picking up by 3.8% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 4.8% y-o-y. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. The generally positive trend in terms of output was largely conditioned by a moderate increase in the number of producing animals and a tangible expansion in yield figures.

Production By Country in Asia

India (198M tonnes) remains the largest whole fresh milk producing country in Asia, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (47M tonnes), fourfold. China (35M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.5% share.

In India, whole fresh milk production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2009-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Pakistan (+3.2% per year) and China (-1.4% per year).

Producing Animals in Asia

In 2019, the amount of producing animals in Asia expanded modestly to 427M heads, rising by 1.8% against the previous year. This number increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. The level of producing animals peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Yield in Asia

The average whole fresh milk yield amounted to 860 kg per head in 2019, picking up by 2% on the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 5.2% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the whole fresh milk yield attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports in Asia

In 2019, after two years of decline, there was growth in overseas shipments of whole fresh milk, when their volume increased by 2.6% to 305K tonnes. Total exports indicated moderate growth from 2009 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. Based on 2019 figures, exports decreased by -27.9% against 2014 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 50% y-o-y. The volume of export peaked at 423K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports expanded to $311M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of whole fresh milk, namely Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Thailand, China, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, India, Kyrgyzstan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and Viet Nam, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (+53.2% per year), while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Kuwait ($62M), Thailand ($49M), and Turkey ($25M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 44% share of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Pakistan, India, Viet Nam, and Kyrgyzstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

Kazakhstan saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The whole fresh milk export price in Asia stood at $1,020 per tonne in 2019, approximately reflecting the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was  Hong Kong SAR ($2,147 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($423 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

beet sugar

Global Sugar Beet Demand Is Expected to Hit 332M Tonnes by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sugar Beet – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global sugar beet market stood at $657.6B in 2019, with an increase of 2.1% against the previous year. World consumption indicated a notable expansion from 2009 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend line, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the market value increased by 52% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the global market reached a maximum level of $805.2B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum. Based on 2019 figures, consumption decreased by -18.3% against 2017 indices.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of sugar beet consumption in 2019 were Russia (44M tonnes), France (40M tonnes), and the U.S. (30M tonnes), with a combined 42% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Germany, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, China, Egypt, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 42%.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Egypt, while sugar beet consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($340.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($151.2B). It was followed by Turkey.

The countries with the highest levels of sugar beet per capita consumption in 2019 were France (612 kg per person), Belarus (521 kg per person), and Belgium (432 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for sugar beet worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 332M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Sugar Beet Production

In 2019, global production of sugar beet totaled 271M tonnes, approximately equating 2018. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 299M tonnes in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The generally positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a pronounced increase of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of sugar beet production in 2019 were Russia (44M tonnes), France (40M tonnes), and the U.S. (30M tonnes), with a combined 42% share of global production. These countries were followed by Germany, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, China, Egypt, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 42%.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Egypt, while sugar beet production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area

In 2019, the global harvested area of sugar beet shrank slightly to 4.7M ha, standing approx. at 2018 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 9.5% y-o-y. The global harvested area peaked at 5M ha in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Yield

In 2019, the global average yield of sugar beet stood at 58 tonnes per ha, picking up by 1.6% against the previous year’s figure. In general, the yield saw a mild increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 12% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average sugar beet yield hit record highs at 62 tonne per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2019, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of sugar beet, which increased by 42% to 503K tonnes in 2019.

In value terms, sugar beet exports rose sharply to $50M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, exports saw a noticeable shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Global exports peaked at $91M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Germany ($16M) remains the largest sugar beet supplier worldwide, comprising 32% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($6.9M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 6.3% share.

In Germany, sugar beet exports expanded at an average annual rate of +12.8% over the period from 2009-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (-7.1% per year) and Belgium (+106.1% per year).

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

carrot

The Middle Eastern Carrot And Turnip Market Continues Moderate but Robust Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Carrots And Turnips – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Middle Eastern carrot and turnip market increased by 3.1% to $458M, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2012 with an increase of 8.9% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of carrot and turnip consumption in 2019 were Turkey (564K tonnes), Iran (319K tonnes) and Israel (142K tonnes), with a combined 73% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Kuwait, which together accounted for a further 20%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of carrot and turnip consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Oman, while carrot and turnip consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest carrot and turnip markets in the Middle East were Turkey ($96M), Israel ($86M) and Iran ($86M), with a combined 59% share of the total market. These countries were followed by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan, which together accounted for a further 31%.

The countries with the highest levels of carrot and turnip per capita consumption in 2019 were Israel (16 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (12 kg per person) and Turkey (6.81 kg per person).

Production in the Middle East

In 2019, carrot and turnip production in the Middle East stood at 1.3M tonnes, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 4.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 1.4M tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, carrot and turnip production reached $396M in 2019 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of carrot and turnip production in 2019 were Turkey (644K tonnes), Iran (331K tonnes) and Israel (228K tonnes), together accounting for 89% of total production. The United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 3.6%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in the United Arab Emirates, while carrot and turnip production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in the Middle East

In 2019, the carrot and turnip harvested area in the Middle East stood at 40K ha, approximately reflecting the year before. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the harvested area increased by 11% year-to-year. The level of harvested area peaked at 41K ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Yield in the Middle East

In 2019, the average carrot and turnip yield in the Middle East shrank modestly to 34 tonne per ha, remaining relatively unchanged against 2018. In general, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 5.1% y-o-y. The level of yield peaked at 39 tonne per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Exports in the Middle East

In 2019, overseas shipments of carrots and turnips increased by 2.1% to 202K tonnes for the first time since 2016, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Total exports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, exports decreased by -29.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 45% year-to-year. As a result, exports reached the peak of 312K tonnes. From 2012 to 2019, the growth exports failed to regain the momentum.

In value terms, carrot and turnip exports totaled $79M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Total exports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last twelve-year period.

Exports by Country

Israel (86K tonnes) and Turkey (80K tonnes) dominates carrot and turnip exports structure, together creating 83% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Iran (12K tonnes), committing a 5.9% share of total exports. The following exporters – Saudi Arabia (8.8K tonnes), Syrian Arab Republic (4.9K tonnes) and Oman (4.9K tonnes) – together made up 9.2% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Iran, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Israel ($53M) remains the largest carrot and turnip supplier in the Middle East, comprising 68% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Turkey ($14M), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Saudi Arabia, with a 3.2% share.

In Israel, carrot and turnip exports expanded at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Turkey (+2.7% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+0.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2019, the carrot and turnip export price in the Middle East amounted to $389 per tonne, rising by 2.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, export prices attained the maximum at $469 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Israel ($620 per tonne), while Turkey ($170 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the Middle East

Carrot and turnip imports expanded sharply to 262K tonnes in 2019, growing by 6.9% against the previous year. Total imports indicated a tangible expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +55.3% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 with an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2019 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, carrot and turnip imports expanded rapidly to $138M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, imports continue to indicate a remarkable increase. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure in 2019 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

The United Arab Emirates (81K tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (74K tonnes) represented roughly 59% of total imports of carrots and turnips in 2019. Kuwait (22K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 8.3% share, followed by Qatar (7.5%), Lebanon (6.7%) and Bahrain (4.8%). Oman (9.8K tonnes) took a little share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Saudi Arabia, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest carrot and turnip importing markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($45M), Saudi Arabia ($36M) and Qatar ($14M), with a combined 69% share of total imports.

Saudi Arabia recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The carrot and turnip import price in the Middle East stood at $529 per tonne in 2019, picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. Import price indicated a tangible expansion from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, carrot and turnip import price increased by +16.1% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $554 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Qatar ($708 per tonne), while Lebanon ($352 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Qatar, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

fig

Global Fig Market Posts Solid Gains

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Figs – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Exports 2007-2019

In 2019, shipments abroad of figs increased by 4% to 130K tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 13% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global exports attained the maximum in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fig exports shrank to $467M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports by Country

Turkey dominates fig exports structure, amounting to 85K tonnes, which was near 65% of total exports in 2019. It was distantly followed by Spain (7.6K tonnes), making up a 5.8% share of total exports. Germany (3.8K tonnes), the Netherlands (3.8K tonnes), Syrian Arab Republic (3.7K tonnes), Greece (3.6K tonnes), the U.S. (2.3K tonnes), France (2K tonnes) and Iran (2K tonnes) occupied a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to fig exports from Turkey stood at +5.0%. At the same time, Greece (+6.5%), Germany (+5.3%), Spain (+3.9%), Syrian Arab Republic (+3.7%) and the Netherlands (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Greece emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.5% from 2007-2019. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the U.S. (-2.3%) and Iran (-7.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2019, the share of Turkey and Spain increased by +29% and +2.2% percentage points, while Iran (-2.1 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($287M) remains the largest fig supplier worldwide, comprising 61% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($21M), with a 4.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Spain, with a 4.4% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey totaled +4.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+3.2% per year) and Spain (+7.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average fig export price stood at $3,591 per tonne in 2019, dropping by -6.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 an increase of 20% year-to-year. As a result, export price attained the peak level of $4,138 per tonne. From 2009 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices failed to regain the momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($5,855 per tonne), while Iran ($2,269 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2019

Global fig imports rose notably to 162K tonnes in 2019, surging by 10% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, total imports indicated a tangible expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +25.8% against 2017 indices. Global imports peaked in 2019 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, fig imports rose sharply to $603M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, total imports indicated a strong increase from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2019, India (27K tonnes), followed by Germany (18K tonnes), France (15K tonnes), the U.S. (12K tonnes) and the UK (7.5K tonnes) were the key importers of figs, together making up 49% of total imports. The following importers – Russia (5.6K tonnes), Austria (5.5K tonnes), Italy (5.2K tonnes), the Netherlands (4.7K tonnes), Canada (4.1K tonnes), Viet Nam (3.6K tonnes) and Switzerland (3.6K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($96M), Germany ($63M) and France ($57M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 36% of global imports. These countries were followed by the U.S., the UK, Austria, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Viet Nam and Russia, which together accounted for a further 33%.

Viet Nam saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average fig import price stood at $3,725 per tonne in 2019, waning by -4.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $4,294 per tonne. From 2009 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average import prices failed to regain the momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Canada ($5,675 per tonne), while Russia ($1,529 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

pineapple juice

The EU Pineapple Juice Market Lacks to Gain Momentum

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Pineapple Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The EU pineapple juice market (which refers to the single strength juice of both direct extraction and reconstituted from the concentrate) was estimated at $368M in 2019, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a mild decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when the market value increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $624M. From 2010 to 2019, the growth of the market failed to regain the momentum.

COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a noticeable transformation of the markets throughout the world, in particular, with regard to the pineapple juice market. So far, the uncertainty regarding the depth of both the global and the national economic decline is too great to make reliable forecasts. However, changes are currently taking place in key market fundamentals: macroeconomic background, sales channels, supply chains, consumer behavior, and prices.

According to the IMF, even several months lived outbreak would lead to at least a 3% contraction of the global GDP in 2020. Previously, during the 2008-2010 crisis, pineapple juice production in the world declined in 2010, and afterward, it rebounded over the next two years. Since pineapple juice is a less popular product than more common types of juice, it is more at risk from the COVID-19 epidemic than staple food products. In the context of falling incomes, consumers primarily tend to exclude non-staple goods from purchases, which in the EU countries is relevant for pineapple juice. Given those assumptions, the contraction of the market in the short term of 2020 might be perceptible. In the medium term, the market growth should start to rebound gradually along with rising incomes and the wane of the pandemic.

Major supply chain risk comes from the fact that the pineapple industry in large producing countries (Costa Rica, the Philippines, Thailand) is largely export-oriented, therefore, a decrease in demand in Western countries can hurt local producers. Future pineapple cultivation may be hampered by the possible lack of investment in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty and tight financial conditions for both farmers and investors. Consequently, it could undermine supply chains because local producers will switch to other crops if pineapple cultivation becomes unprofitable.

Another risk may appear due to the disruption of established international supply chains including food handling and packaging intermediaries, as well as in the processing sector. Supply chains may be undermined by asynchronous quarantine measures taken in the involved countries as well as the restraints in deliveries. However, this is now mitigated by the gradual re-opening of the economies in the are key importing markets  – the U.S. and Europe, which should support the market demand.

Given the limitations of the HoReCa sector and the reduced number of visits to traditional malls and shops, online retail is becoming a key channel for the sale of food products, including pineapple juice. Moreover, contactless delivery becomes a ‘must-have’ option for retail services. As online retail becomes the key sales channel, advertising budgets are to shift increasingly from point-of-sale advertising towards Internet messengers and social networks.

On the other hand, retail packaging adapted to different consumption situations becomes more popular: family packages, single person packages of various shapes and dimensions, snack packages, etc. Furthermore, increased consumer attention to health stimulates changes in branding and promotion towards focusing on the health benefits of pineapple juice, which may support the rise of ‘non-from-concentrate’ brands.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of pineapple juice consumption in 2019 were Spain (117K tonnes), France (82K tonnes) and Germany (47K tonnes), together comprising 52% of total consumption. These countries were followed by Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 33%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Belgium, while pineapple juice (single strength) consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($115M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by France ($52M). It was followed by Italy.

The countries with the highest levels of pineapple juice per capita consumption in 2019 were the Netherlands (2.54 kg per person), Spain (2.49 kg per person) and Belgium (2 kg per person).

Production in the EU

In 2019, pineapple juice production in the European Union declined modestly to 334K tonnes, which is down by -3.6% on 2018. In general, production continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 33% y-o-y. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume at 669K tonnes in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2019, production failed to regain the momentum.

Production By Country

Spain (100K tonnes) remains the largest pineapple juice producing country in the European Union, accounting for 30% of total volume. Moreover, pineapple juice (single strength) production in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, France (47K tonnes), twofold. Italy (44K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 13% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Spain amounted to -2.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (-0.7% per year) and Italy (-6.4% per year).

Exports in the EU

In 2019, exports of pineapple juice in the European Union shrank notably to 112K tonnes, which is down by -29.9% compared with the previous year. Total exports indicated tangible growth from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The volume of export peaked at 160K tonnes in 2018, and then reduced notably in the following year.

In value terms, pineapple juice (single strength) exports contracted to $82M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands was the largest exporter of pineapple juice in the European Union, with the volume of exports recording 59K tonnes, which was near 52% of total exports in 2019. It was distantly followed by Germany (13K tonnes), Belgium (11K tonnes), Spain (6.9K tonnes) and Cyprus (5.5K tonnes), together achieving a 32% share of total exports. Austria (4.1K tonnes) and France (3.6K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The Netherlands was also the fastest-growing in terms of the pineapple juice (single strength) exports, with a CAGR of +16.1% from 2007 to 2019. At the same time, France (+11.0%), Cyprus (+9.1%), Belgium (+9.0%) and Spain (+8.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Austria (-9.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2019, the share of the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Cyprus and France increased by +44%, +6.1%, +3.7%, +3.2% and +2.3% percentage points, while Austria (-8.7 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($38M) remains the largest pineapple juice supplier in the European Union, comprising 46% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($12M), with a 14% share of total exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 8.4% share.

In the Netherlands, pineapple juice exports increased at an average annual rate of +14.4% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+0.8% per year) and Belgium (+7.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average pineapple juice  export price in the European Union stood at $733 per tonne in 2019. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, export prices attained the maximum at $873 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was France ($1,212 per tonne), while Cyprus ($543 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2019, overseas purchases of pineapple juice decreased by -5.1% to 249K tonnes, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. Against its outset level of 2007, imports, however, enjoyed a prominent increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 36% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 318K tonnes. From 2017 to 2019, the growth imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, pineapple juice imports reduced to $131M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Total imports indicated a pronounced increase from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Imports by Country

In 2019, the Netherlands (87K tonnes) was the main importer of pineapple juice, generating 35% of total imports. France (39K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 16% share, followed by Germany (15%), Belgium (12%), Spain (9.5%) and the UK (6.4%).

Imports into the Netherlands increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% from 2007 to 2019. At the same time, Belgium (+19.7%), Spain (+17.8%), Germany (+11.6%) and France (+9.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +19.7% from 2007-2019. The UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of the Netherlands (+18 p.p.), Germany (+11 p.p.), France (+10 p.p.), Belgium (+10 p.p.) and Spain (+8.1 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($35M), France ($24M) and Germany ($20M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, with a combined 60% share of total imports. Belgium, the UK and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the pineapple juice import price in the European Union amounted to $528 per tonne, waning by -9.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when the import price increased by 8.4% year-to-year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $850 per tonne. From 2010 to 2019, the growth in terms of the import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the UK ($649 per tonne), while the Netherlands ($404 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

agricultural

Current Health Pandemic Shows the Need to Restructure Old Agricultural Trade Policies

Haiti is still rebuilding following the devastation of the 7.0 earthquake that struck a decade ago. Among an array of social burdens keeping this small Caribbean country in a perpetual cycle of vulnerability, food insecurity has been a persistent threat to its citizens since well before the earthquake. The earthquake exacerbated Haiti’s food crisis, and consequently, about half of the Haitian population remains undernourished.

In the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake, the country of 10 million people faced a dire food shortage. Approximately 25,000 tons of food aid of U.S. origin was distributed in response to the earthquake. Over 80 percent of the total dollar value of funds and metric tons of U.S. food aid allocated for emergency activities throughout Latin America and the Caribbean during the 2010 fiscal year was apportioned to Haiti. During the same year, Haiti imported about US$160 million worth of rice from the United States. Haiti needed to rely on foreign food aid, including rice imports.

Fast forward to 2020, Haiti continues to face severe food insecurity that has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Haiti imported more staple food, for which the prices had decreased, by April 2020 than the previous year. However, the global slowdown on imports and exports, in addition to low domestic production and high production costs, have resulted in elevated prices on locally produced staple food such as rice. Haiti’s dependency on rice imports is puzzling considering that it once produced enough rice for local consumption.

The Result of Disproportionate Liberal Trade Policies in a Time of Crisis

As a supporter of trade liberalization myself, it is important to fully understand this contradiction by going back to the liberalization policies of the 1980s and 1990s, when many Latin American and Caribbean countries implemented open-market trade policies to grow their economies. In 1986, Haiti placed a 50 percent ad valorem tariff on rice imports. By 1995, with the support of U.S. President Bill Clinton, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank pushed structural adjustment programs in Haiti, which involved Haiti drastically reducing its tariffs on rice imports to three percent.

Rather than leading to economic growth, these policies resulted in an influx of cheaper, subsidized rice imports. Haitian rice imports increased dramatically from 7,000 metric tons in 1985 to 207,000 metric tons a decade later, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) figures. The majority of these imports came from the United States.

On the other hand, rice productivity in Haiti dropped significantly. From 1980 to 1990, Haiti averaged 124,000 tons of rice produced, which dropped down to an average of 114,400 tons by 2005-06.

Most of the U.S. rice imports come from Clinton’s home state of Arkansas. The rice grower in Arkansas has received billions of dollars of subsidies since 1995. Following the earthquake, Clinton stated during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, “It may have been good for some of my farmers in Arkansas, but it has not worked. I have to live every day with the consequences of the lost capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people, because of what I did.”

The liberalization of Haiti’s rice market has created a cycle of dependency for the country, which becomes more evident during a crisis, such as the 2010 earthquake and today’s global health pandemic. Many Haitian rice growers have found it difficult to sell within their own market because of the inability to compete against the lower cost, subsidized imports from the United States. As a result, and prior to the pandemic, 80 percent of rice consumed in Haiti had been imported.

With the current global health pandemic, the United Nations World Food Programme estimates that the number of people in Haiti alone that face food insecurity will jump from 700,000 to 1.6 million.

In April 2020, the World Bank, which supported trade liberalization in Haiti, provided US$9.5 million to Haiti’s agricultural sector to address the deepened food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, as well its impact on global trade. Ironically, such support may help the local agricultural sector to become self-sufficient again. Time will tell.

Awareness to Action

Haiti’s story is a familiar one in other regions as well, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. However, many remain unaware of the link between trade policies and food insecurity. For instance, in response to my TEDx talk on the subject, people have commented, “I had no idea about how these policies impacted so many lives.”

Similar to Haiti, the East African country of Tanzania is a net importer of rice, a least-developed-country, and implemented liberal trade policies by the 1990s. Local measures have been taken to reduce the effects of trade liberalization on Tanzania’s local farmers and food production thus, offering insight into three approaches to mitigate the negative impact of structural adjustment policies–acknowledge disproportionate trade policies, implement policies that support local producers, and build the capacity for local producers to compete internationally.

Consider the trade policies that restrict market access to local producers and create an unfair competitive advantage for foreign producers. Being aware of the role of disproportionate trade policies in the loss of food in developing countries and creating a reliance on imported food aid is the first step to developing effective policies and practices to promote higher levels of food security.

Tanzania allows for duty-free agricultural imports from other East African Community (EAC) members—Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Uganda. However, it places a 75 percent tariff or $345 per ton, whichever is higher, on rice imports from non-EAC countries. This high tariff rate limits the influx of foreign rice imports. In 2018, Tanzania imported a total of 236 tons of rice from international suppliers. The majority of rice—180 tons–came from Pakistan. The United States only accounted for 16 tons.

Tanzania has since placed a ban on rice imports for the 2020/21 marketing year in an effort to boost local production. The US Department of Agricultural estimates a nine percent decrease in rice imports into Tanzania during this period.

The second solution is to develop policies that complement local production, rather than displace it. It becomes a win-win outcome when exported goods are not already abundantly available in a market for which there may be a growing demand. However, the export of staple crops already being produced in a lower-income country should add to the supply and be sold at market value to allow for fair competition.

At the same time, Tanzania has experienced increased imports as rising demand exceeds local production. For instance, in the late 1990s, food imports jumped almost three-fold only because of a decline in domestic production, rather than trade liberalization. Rice imported from the United States are mainly for food aid programs. The rice imports supplement, rather than compete directly with, local production.

Finally, trade facilitation and capacity building (TFCB) programs present a third solution. Such programs emphasize enhancing the skills of local farmers to compete in today’s global economy. TFCB programs can produce success stories, given that they are implemented under truly reciprocal trade policies and practices.

The EAC countries, including Tanzania, have implemented TFCB programs with technical assistance from organizations such as the United Nation Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). EAC countries have adopted an electronic cargo tracking system and invested in transport infrastructure (ports, roads, railways, airports) to improve their trade competitiveness. In Tanzania alone, the transportation and storage industries have grown 16.6 percent by 2017. Improving infrastructure becomes important as Tanzania’s rice production is expected to increase slightly by 2020, per USDA estimates. Furthermore, Tanzania has expanded its market access by exporting rice to its neighboring East African countries, making it a major supplier of rice throughout the region. Tanzania’s rice producers can provide for domestic and international markets. Tanzania’s response to trade liberalization has resulted in it being the fastest growing East African economy at 7.1 percent in 2017.

In sum, trade liberalization policies create structural incentives that shift supply and demand in favor of foreign producers to the detriment of local subsistence farmers. As the COVID-19 pandemic is showing, the cycle of food insecurity only worsens when imports are restricted, local production remains low, and food prices go up. However, designing trade liberalization policies and capacity-building programs that support local producers over the long-term may help address food insecurity in developing countries.

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Sarita D. Jackson, Ph.D. is the President and CEO of the Global Research Institute of International Trade, a Californian think-tank and consulting firm. Dr. Jackson has previously worked on overseas projects funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Fulbright Scholar/Lecture Award. She is also a published author, TEDx speaker, and business school instructor. She conducts her work in English and Spanish. Dr. Jackson earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism and Spanish at the University of Southern California and a Master’s and Doctorate in political science at Brown University. 

frozen fish

Global Frozen Fish Market – China Holds 17 Percent of World Exports, with $7.6B in 2018

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Frozen Fish – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global frozen fish market revenue amounted to $118.3B in 2018, rising by 6.6% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2014 to 2018.

Driven by increasing demand for frozen fish worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 43M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Frozen Fish Trade 2014-2018

In 2018, the global exports of frozen fish amounted to 17M tonnes, increasing by 6.5% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2014 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 7.1% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global frozen fish exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, frozen fish exports stood at $43.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The exports of the twelve major exporters of frozen fish, namely China, Russia, the U.S., Viet Nam, Norway, the Netherlands, Chile, Taiwan, Chinese, Japan, Spain, Namibia and India, represented more than half of total export.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by India, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($7.6B) remains the largest frozen fish supplier worldwide, comprising 17% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($3.6B), with a 8.2% share of global exports. It was followed by Russia, with a 6.7% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average frozen fish export price amounted to $2,574 per tonne, increasing by 2.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the frozen fish export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 2.9% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average export prices for frozen fish attained their maximum at $2,628 per tonne in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2018.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Chile ($5,059 per tonne), while Namibia ($1,334 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports by Country

In 2018, China (2.2M tonnes), followed by Thailand (1.4M tonnes), Japan (1.4M tonnes), the U.S. (1M tonnes) and South Korea (0.9M tonnes) were the largest importers of frozen fish, together making up 40% of total imports. The following importers – Viet Nam (706K tonnes), Nigeria (581K tonnes), Spain (515K tonnes), the Netherlands (470K tonnes), Germany (436K tonnes), Cameroon (404K tonnes) and Russia (371K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen fish importing markets worldwide were Japan ($6B), the U.S. ($5B) and China ($4B), together comprising 34% of global imports. Thailand, South Korea, Viet Nam, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Russia, Nigeria and Cameroon lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Import Prices by Country

The average frozen fish import price stood at $2,582 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 2.2% against the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($5,112 per tonne), while Nigeria ($839 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

pork

BRINGING HOME THE BACON: U.S. PORK TRADE

The Year That Wasn’t

This year was supposed to mark a comeback for U.S. pork producers. Instead, the industry faces volatile markets and unprecedented supply chain disruptions. COVID-19’s domino effect on farmers, processors, retailers and consumers underscores the complexities of our modern food system.

In late April, meat industry executives warned the United States could soon face a meat shortage after processing facilities closed temporarily due to the spread of COVID-19 among employees. Total meat supplies in cold storage facilities across the United States totaled roughly two weeks’ worth of production. With processing at a standstill, meat supplies for retail grocery stores were expected to shrink by nearly 30 percent by Memorial Day, leading to increases in pork and beef price prices of as much as 20 percent, according to analysis by CoBank.

Shuttered plants also meant that farmers had nowhere to send their mature pigs, creating a massive livestock backlog. While many meat processors have re-opened as of May 2020, hog farmers may yet be forced to euthanize as many as seven million pigs in the second quarter of 2020, a loss valued at nearly $700 million. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute forecasted a total loss of $2.2 billion for the U.S. pork industry in 2020 due to the pandemic.

US 3rd largest pork producer

Going Whole Hog on Exports

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, the United States is the world’s third-largest producer and consumer of pork, shipping on average more than 5 billion pounds of fresh and frozen pork internationally each year since 2010.

But this dominant role in world pork trade is a fairly recent phenomenon. The United States became a net exporter of pork in 1995. Exports jumped from two percent of total production in 1990 to 21 percent in 2016. What made this spike possible?

The U.S. pork industry has gone through a major restructuring since the mid-1980s, shifting from small, independently owned operations to larger, vertically-integrated companies that contract with growers to raise pigs. This structure increased the industry’s productivity and year-round slaughter capacity. Between 1991 and 2009, the number of hog farms in the United States dropped by 70 percent but the number of hogs remained stable.

The National Pork Producers Council calculates that exports account for nearly 36 percent of the total $149 average value of a hog. While American pork is shipped to more than 100 countries, just four countries account for 75 percent of U.S. pork exports: Mexico, Japan, China, and Canada. It’s easy to see why implementation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is important to U.S. pork producers: Mexico alone accounts for about one-third of all exports by volume. U.S. exports of pork increased 1,550 percent in value since 1989, when the United States first implemented a free trade agreement with Canada.

U.S. pork producers mainly compete with pork producers in the European Union, Canada, and Brazil for sales in overseas markets. American farmers were concerned they could lose market share in Japan after the United States did not join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Japan made a trade deal with the European Union. Japan is the largest value market for U.S. pork and the second largest market by volume. However, pork exports there have been trending higher in 2020 following the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement.

Where US pork exports go

Higher on the Hog in China?

For the last two years, American pork producers have found themselves in the crosshairs of a trade war between the United States and China, a key export market. In April 2018, China levied a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on many U.S. pork imports in response to Section 232 tariffs put in place by the United States. In 2019, China again retaliated against American pork, this time in response to Section 301 tariffs.

Before the trade war, China was the second-largest market for U.S. farm exports (after Canada). In 2016, China purchased nearly $20 billion in American farm products but sales dropped sharply in 2018 to $7.9 billion.

The “Phase One” U.S.-China trade agreement went into effect on February 14, 2020. It includes a commitment from China to import an additional $12.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products during 2020 on top of a 2017 baseline of about $24 billion. The agreement also provides access for a larger variety of U.S. pork products and restores access for processed pork products, which had been blocked by China.

As part of this deal, on February 17 China announced tariff exclusions for 696 products, including pork. In the first quarter of 2020, China bought $5.05 billion in U.S. farm goods, up 110 percent from last year. China’s pork imports almost tripled from March 2019, reflecting a major domestic supply gap caused by African Swine Fever (ASF).

However, concerns remain if it is feasible for China to meet the purchase targets set in the agreement. Through March 2020, U.S. Census Bureau data show that U.S. agricultural exports to China were only at 37 percent of year-to-date targets. The American Farm Bureau Federation found that U.S. agricultural exports to China need to accelerate by 114 percent each month from May through the rest of the fiscal year to meet the “Phase One” target.

China ag purchases fall in trade war

Not Exactly “Year of the Pig” for Pork Industry

The possibility of U.S. sales to China going unfulfilled seems surprising. Another virus – ASF – has been ravaging China’s pork output since August 2018. ASF is a highly contagious, deadly pig disease with no known treatment or vaccine. It does not affect humans or food safety but it has had a devastating impact on China’s pork industry, the world’s largest, leaving a shortage in domestic supply.

Despite low officially reported cases of ASF, as many as 350 million pigs died from the disease in China during 2019. (And because the disease continues to spread across borders, one quarter of all the world’s pigs may die from ASF.) After more than a year of declining pork output, China’s total pork supply gap is estimated at 18 million tons – a figure much larger than total global supplies. Chinese consumers have faced record high prices for pork, traditionally their protein of choice. Some parts of the country also faced meat shortages due to disrupted supply chains during the COVID-19 quarantine.

To address persistent high prices, the Chinese government auctioned off a small amount of frozen pork from publicly held pork reserves, but the move was largely symbolic and had a limited short-term impact on prices. The government’s total pork reserve volumes are a national secret and not publicly available.

Enter: Coronavirus

As American hog farmers were positioning to fill China’s need to import more pork, enter the coronavirus in early 2020, which threw the U.S. pork market into extreme volatility.

After COVID-19 forced processing plants to temporarily close, U.S. pig prices dropped 27 percent in about a week, reducing profits for pig producers while consumers paid more for pork at the grocery store. The demand for meat often takes a hit during economic recessions as consumers keep a close eye on their grocery bill. At the same time, the industry lost major food service markets such as restaurants, universities, and elementary schools that were also shut down.

To help pork producers and other farmers, USDA on April 17 announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) to provide $19 billion in emergency aid to farmers and ranchers hit by market disruptions. CFAP includes $16 billion in direct payments to producers and $3 billion in purchases of fresh produce, meat, and dairy products for distribution through food banks. USDA will purchase an estimated $100 million per month in pork and chicken, along with other food products, beginning in May. Nonetheless, an industry-funded analysis by Iowa State University found that American hog farmers will lose $5 billion (or $37 per pig) due to reduced prices for pork and shuttered processing plants.

US pork shipments to China

Saving Our Bacon

America’s pork industry has been beset with uncertainty in recent years. The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer found that the unknowns surrounding the pandemic have further decreased farmer optimism to a four-year low, with 67 percent of farmers saying they are worried about the impact of the coronavirus on their business.

Prior to COVID-19, U.S. farmers were already reeling from lost sales due to China’s tariffs. The saving grace for U.S. pork producers now is that pork exports are actually ramping up.

During March and April, the number of pigs slaughtered per day decreased by 40 percent, but shipments of U.S. pork to China more than quadrupled, including whole carcasses as well as products that Americans generally don’t eat, like feet and organs. The U.S. Meat Export Federation estimated that so far in 2020, about 31 percent of U.S. pork has been exported with one-third of that volume going to China.

That means that in the near term, increasing exports will remain vital for the U.S. pork industry to weather the coronavirus storm as processing capacity gets back online and domestic sales begin to rebound.

____________________________________________________________

Sarah Hubbart provides communications strategy, content creation, and social media management for TradeVistas. A native of rural Northern California, Sarah has melded communications and policy throughout her career in Washington, D.C., serving in government affairs, issues management, and coalition building roles in the agricultural sector. She is an alum of California State University, Chico and George Washington University.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.
covid

Post-COVID Logistics: Retooling for the Future

The impact of COVID-19 continues to be felt across global economies and businesses, but for the supply chain and logistics industry, challenges go beyond the present and threaten the future of operations and business continuity. These challenges redefine what prediction could look like for the logistics industry and what considerations should be taken to keep the supply chain moving.

Global Trade had the opportunity to speak with business owner and author of “The GOP’s Lost Decade: An Inside View of Why Washington Doesn’t Work,” Jim Renacci on what changes the industry can anticipate as the current health crisis continues to change the pace for global business.

What planning measures will logistics players need to consider in a post-COVID environment?

There is no doubt that COVID-19 has changed the way manufacturers/logistic players will need to review their supply chain management post-COVID-19 and access their supply chain vulnerabilities. The crisis has demonstrated that reliance on sourcing from two geographic areas could pose a risk.

During the crisis, while supplies became unavailable, many companies were forced to start looking for new supply chains as many of their overseas suppliers had to limit or reduce shipments significantly. Post-COVID planning will include asking current suppliers to take on more and different product lines. It is already happening with many current business relationships. Also, the reliability of the supply chain…. over cost…. will be more of a priority.

In what ways have supply chain players supported their customers and consumers during the crisis?

Manufacturers/supply chain players are supporting their customers by shifting and increasing supply chain needs where possible. In many instances, secondary suppliers have started adding product lines where possible. With any crisis, opportunities will be there for the business that can move quickly and adapt to change.

How will the manufacturing site selection process shift in a post-COVID world? 

Manufacturing site selection processes in a post-COVID world should include seeking locations within the US and other countries that have access to highly trained engineers, top tier R&D, access to advanced manufacturing technologies as well as private and public institutions and universities. Site selection should also include countries that offer a competitive investment package as more and more countries post-COVID will be looking to entice companies to locate or relocate inside their jurisdictions.

In what ways can logistics players use the disruption from COVID-19 to benefit their operations in the future?

Current disruption due to COVID-19 will allow companies to reassess their vulnerabilities but also their strengths. With these disruptions, companies can retool for the future. They can adjust for their weaknesses and benefit from their strengths.

_______________________________________________________________

Jim Renacci is the author of The GOP’s Lost Decade: An Inside View of Why Washington Doesn’t Work. He is also an experienced business owner who created more than 1,500 jobs and employed over 3,000 people across the Buckeye State before running for Congress in 2010. Jim represented Ohio’s 16th District in the House of Representatives for four terms. He is also the chairman of Ohio’s Future Foundation, a policy and action-oriented organization whose goal is to move the state forward.

chicken meat

Africa’s Chicken Meat Market to Reach 11M Tonnes by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Chicken Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the chicken meat market in Africa amounted to $11.4B in 2018, jumping by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the market value increased by 8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the chicken meat market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of chicken meat consumption in 2018 were South Africa (2.1M tonnes), Egypt (1.1M tonnes) and Morocco (720K tonnes), with a combined 52% share of total consumption. Angola, Algeria, Ghana, Libya, Nigeria, Malawi, Tunisia, Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of chicken meat consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Malawi, while chicken meat consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest chicken meat markets in Africa were South Africa ($3.3B), Egypt ($1.8B) and Morocco ($1.1B), together accounting for 54% of the total market. Nigeria, Angola, Malawi, Libya, Ghana, Tunisia, Algeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Congo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

The countries with the highest levels of chicken meat per capita consumption in 2018 were Libya (39 kg per person), South Africa (36 kg per person) and Congo (23 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for chicken meat in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in Africa

In 2018, the amount of chicken meat produced in Africa totaled 5.7M tonnes, surging by 4.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2018. The general positive trend in terms of chicken meat output was largely conditioned by a moderate expansion of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of chicken meat production in 2018 were South Africa (1.8M tonnes), Egypt (1.1M tonnes) and Morocco (720K tonnes), with a combined 62% share of total production. Algeria, Nigeria, Malawi, Tunisia, Libya, Tanzania, Sudan and Mozambique lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of chicken meat production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Malawi, while chicken meat production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 1.9M tonnes of chicken meat were imported in Africa; picking up by 23% against the previous year. In value terms, chicken meat imports amounted to $1.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, chicken meat imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 21% against the previous year. The level of imports peaked at $2B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Angola (432K tonnes) and South Africa (370K tonnes) represented the major importers of chicken meat in 2018, accounting for near 23% and 20% of total imports, respectively. Ghana (213K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 12% share, followed by Libya (6.6%), Congo (6.2%) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.8%). Benin (77K tonnes), Gabon (67K tonnes), Egypt (45K tonnes) and Guinea (37K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Guinea, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Angola ($465M), South Africa ($372M) and Ghana ($188M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together accounting for 53% of total imports. Libya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Congo, Egypt, Benin, Gabon and Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

Import Prices by Country

The chicken meat import price in Africa stood at $1,038 per tonne in 2018, approximately reflecting the previous year. Overall, the chicken meat import price continues to indicate a pronounced decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 9.1% against the previous year. The level of import price peaked at $1,266 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Egypt ($1,705 per tonne), while Congo ($835 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform