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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Free Trade Agreements with Israel and the EU

inflation "made in Ukrainian" product imported into Israel, is that the product is manufactured in the territory of Ukraine.

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Free Trade Agreements with Israel and the EU

As is well known, the war between Russia and Ukraine affects a wide range of areas, both security and economic.

This new war situation created, may also affect aspects related to imports and exports between Israel and Ukraine, aspects of customs duties, and other import taxes.

Israel and Ukraine have signed in 2019 a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and entered into force in January 2021 (1).

Under the FTA, the imposition of customs duties on the movement of goods between countries was abolished, in relation to most types of products, mainly industrial, and the reduction of customs duties on agricultural products.

The main products that Israel imports from Ukraine are agricultural products and food products, metals and machinery (2).
One of the basic conditions in the FTA for granting a customs exemption for a  “made in Ukrainian” product imported into Israel, is that the product is manufactured in the territory
of Ukraine.

The FTA defines in Article 1.2(w)(1), that the territory of Ukraine, is:
“…the land territory, internal waters, and territorial sea of Ukraine and the airspace above them and the exclusive (maritime) economic zone and continental shelf, over which Ukraine exercise sovereign rights and jurisdiction in accordance with its national laws in force and international law…”

The new war situation that has arisen may intrigue the interesting legal question of: What is the origin of a product manufactured in the territories of eastern Ukraine, that are de-facto, under the control of Russia.

That is, whether for the purposes of the FTA with Israel, such a product remains a “Made in Ukriane” product, or not.
This is not an academic question, but a question that may directly affect the question of whether the product will be subject to customs duty on imports to Israel, or not.

It is important to note that there is no FTA between Israel and Russia, and therefore products made in Russia, imported into Israel, are usually subject to customs duties upon importation.
Israel has been negotiating with the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan) for several years to sign a FTA, but the talks have not yielded to an agreement yet.

For example, ketchup imported from Russia to Israel is subjected to a 12% customs duty, and if imported from Ukraine, is subjected to a reduced duty rate of about 8.5%. Imports of electric motors from Russia are subject to 12% customs duty and from Ukraine to Israel is
exempted, and there are many more examples.

Apart from Israel, Ukraine has other FTA, for example, with Canada and the EU countries, and also in these agreements a basic condition for granting a customs exemption for a product made in Ukraine is that it creates in Ukrainian territory.

The EU, by the way, has already hastened to issue a notice on February 23 rd , 2022 stating that products arriving from the Donetsk and Lugansk territories in Ukraine will not enjoy a
customs benefit when entering the EU, due to difficulty in verifying the Ukrainian origin of the product (3).

Needless to say, this is not the first time there has been a territorial dispute over certain territories in the world, and any such dispute usually has one effect or another on trade relations between countries.

For example, in this context it is interesting to note that the European Union, which has had a FTA with the State of Israel since 1995, previously declared that the territories of Judea and Samaria (the west bank), including territories from Modi’in-Maccabim-Reut, and the Golan Heights (north of Israel, near Syria), would not be considered as the State of Israel for the FTA purposes. Therefore, according to the EUs decision, a product manufactured in these territories will not enjoy a customs benefit upon entering the EU.

This case even came to a decision in the European Court of Justice, which ruled that products manufactured by Soda Club in Mishor Adumim (near Jerusalem) would not enjoy a customs benefit when
entering Germany. Contrary to this, when it comes to other territorial disputes, such as Turkish Cyprus, or the Falkland Islands (dispute between Britain and Argentina), no similar declarations have been made.

In my opinion, the State of Israel will not be interested in undermining trade relations with Ukraine or Russia, and therefore will not issue declarations regarding the disputed territories of east Ukraine.

apple juice

European Concentrated Apple Juice Imports Dropped Twofold over the Past Decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Concentrated Apple Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, concentrated apple juice imports in the EU dropped twofold after peaking in 2007, from $1.2B to $0.6B. In physical terms, imports fell from 808K tonnes to 463K tonnes over this period. Germany represents the main European importer of concentrated apple juice, accounting for 34% of total import volume in the EU. Austria and the Netherlands, with a further combined 25%-share, follow Germany. From 2007 to 2020, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands recorded a slump in the value of imports.


 

Concentrated Apple Juice Imports in the EU

Concentrated apple juice imports dropped to 463K tonnes in 2020, reducing by -13.7% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, concentrated apple juice imports estimated at $584M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In value terms, European concentrated apple juice imports dropped twofold, from $1.2B in 2007 to $0.6B in 2020. In physical terms, imports reduced from 808K tonnes to 463K tonnes during this period.

Germany represented the major importer of concentrated apple juice in the EU, with the volume of imports reaching 158K tonnes, which was approx. 34% of total imports in 2020. Austria (58K tonnes) occupied a 13% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (12%), France (11%) and Poland (11%). Ireland (20K tonnes) and Denmark (10K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, Germany ($209M) constitutes the largest market for imported concentrated apple juice in the EU, comprising 36% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($73M), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by Austria, with a 12% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany totaled -6.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the Netherlands (-3.6% per year) and Austria (-8.8% per year).

The concentrated apple juice import price in the EU stood at $1,262 per tonne in 2020, jumping by +19% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Denmark ($1,397 per tonne), while Ireland ($572 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. From 2007 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform 

electric cooker

Electric Cooker Trade in the EU Soars 33% to Over $5.2B

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Electric Ovens, Cookers, Cooking Plates, Boiling Rings, Grillers And Roasters – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In Q1-Q3 2021, the trade value on the EU electric cooker market reached $5.2B, surging by 33% against the same period of the previous year. The leading European suppliers, Germany, Poland and Italy, increased electric cooker exports by more than 28% compared to 2020’s figures.

EU electric cooker trade is forecast to hit a record $30B in 2021. During Q1-Q3 2021, electric cooker exports in the EU reached $5.2B, rising by 33% against the same period in 2020. This figure includes the total value of ovens, plates, boiling rings, grillers, rollers and other electric cookers and their accessories.

The largest European electric cooker exporter, Germany, ramped up supplies by 30% to $1.6B. Poland’s foreign sales rose by 28% to $772M, while Italy expanded electric cooker exports by 46% to $766M over the period under review.

EU Electric Cooker Exports by Country

In 2020, electric oven and cooker exports stood at $5.6B (IndexBox estimates), rising by 8.1% from 2019’s figures. The largest electric oven and cooker supplying countries in the EU were Germany ($1.7B), Poland ($884M) and Italy ($778M), together accounting for 62% of total supplies. Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 20%.

The electric oven and cooker export price in the EU stood at $126 per unit in 2020, picking up by 5.6% against the previous year. The most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovenia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth during 2020.

Source: IndexBox Platform

dairy

EU Dairy Market Forecast: Cheese Prices to Rise Sharply, Butter and Fluid Milk to Keep Calm

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

EU cheese prices are expected to rise with the boosting export demand, while fluid milk and butter prices will keep relatively stable. The EU dairy market is forecast to grow only moderately, having raw milk availability restrained by sustainability objectives. Despite that, the EU is to remain the largest dairy exporter worldwide.

Key Trends and Insights

This year, EU dairy prices are forecast to increase, driven by high demand against limited supply. The average cheese price will post the most noticeable gains, rising to $3.23 (+5.1% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021), while milk will be up to $0.346 per kg (only a +0.6% increase). By 2025, cheese could reach $3.30 per kg, and milk will cost $0.361 per kg. Butter price will remain stable near $2.2 per kg throughout the next five years.

According to the EU Agricultural Outlook 2021-31, in the next decade, the growth of EU milk production will slow down to +0.5% per year due to a decline in herds driven by sustainability objectives. In 2022, dairy cow milk production should increase by 1.4% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021 and total 156M tonnes; then, it should reach 158M tonnes by 2025. The number of dairy cows is expected to decrease from 20.0M heads in 2022 to 19.6M in 2025.

This year, cream production is projected to rise to 2.5M tonnes (+1.4% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021), while by 2025, it will reach 2.6M tonnes. Yoghurt and butter production will not see significant changes, remaining at 7.8M tonnes and 2.4M tonnes, respectively.

In 2022, cheese production will expand to 10.9M tonnes (+1.8%) and reach 11.1M tonnes by 2025. Thanks to the rising demand in Asia, foreign trade in cheese will see gains, while the domestic market will expand only moderately since cheese is a long-known product with established consumption patterns. The EU is expected to keep its position as the largest exporter of dairy products, outstepping New Zealand and the U.S. in shipment volumes. Currently, the largest European suppliers of dairy products are Germany (23%), the Netherlands (12%) and France (11%).

Dairy Produce Exports in the EU

In 2020, the amount of dairy produce exported in the EU declined to 19M tonnes, stabilizing from the previous year. In value terms, dairy exports amounted to $43.4B.

In 2020, Germany (4.6M tonnes), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.3M tonnes), France (2.1M tonnes), Belgium (1.5M tonnes), Poland (1.3M tonnes), the Czech Republic (1.1M tonnes), Ireland (1M tonnes) and Austria (0.9M tonnes) were the largest exporters of dairy produce, together constituting 76% of total exports. Denmark (765K tonnes), Italy (540K tonnes), Latvia (407K tonnes), Spain (379K tonnes), and Luxembourg (366K tonnes) occupied a relatively small share of total volume.

In value terms, Germany ($8.7B), the Netherlands ($7.5B) and France ($5.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 50% share of total supplies. Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Poland, Austria, Spain, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

In 2020, the average dairy produce export price in the EU amounted to $2,238 per tonne, rising by 2.1% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy, while Latvia was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Brexit

Navigating Trade & Business 1 Year Post-Brexit

It is just over five and a half years since the Brexit referendum delivered a surprise 52/48 verdict in favor of the UK departing the European Union.

It has been a period of intense political upheaval in the UK resulting in the departure of two successive Prime Ministers and two general elections, all against the backdrop of fraught negotiations to agree with the EU a Withdrawal Agreement (WA), setting out the terms of the departure, and a new Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), designed to frame the new relationship.

The WA was concluded in December 2019. The UK exited the EU on January 31, 2020, but nothing changed until the expiry of a transition phase at the end of that year, by which point the TCA was also agreed.

The dust has still not fully settled on the definitive shape of EU-UK relations as there are several as yet unresolved issues due to certain grace periods (the UK is only this year beginning fully to implement checks on EU imports) and some unfinished business (defining the modalities of the vexed arrangements for Northern Ireland). However, the general direction of travel is clear. The UK has opted for the most severe form of exit, seeking to cut most ties with the EU and aiming to achieve the maximum degree of regulatory independence.

The economic and social dislocation caused by the pandemic has made it difficult sometimes to distinguish between the impact of Brexit only versus that of COVID 19. However, this article seeks to describe, as far as possible, how Brexit has affected the business and regulatory environment across the full range of areas covered by Steptoe and Johnson practices so far, and to identify issues of potential future concern for companies.

Trade, Customs, and the Level Playing Field

Customs and Supply Chain Issues

2021 was a year characterized by supply chain issues. Not just in the EU or the UK, but globally. While trade was down in the first half of 2020 due to the global pandemic, 2021 saw a complete reversal with global ports being highly congested. This issue was felt differently in the EU as compared to the UK, however. Euro-area exports of goods in October 2021 were close to pre-pandemic levels, being only 2,34% down from October 2019.[1] In the UK, on the other hand, exports of goods were 9,6% lower in October 2021 than in October 2018, the “most recent ‘stable’ period” in the UK.[2]

A key reason why customs and supply chain issues were more acute in the UK as compared to the EU appears to be Brexit. UK companies have so far experienced more difficulties in trading under the new customs arrangements following Brexit than EU companies.[3] Indeed, the EU has been applying full customs checks to imports from the UK since January 1, 2021, while the UK has repeatedly delayed similar checks on imports from the EU. However, as of January 1, 2022, the UK has introduced full customs checks on goods imported from the EU to Great Britain, with exceptions regarding Ireland and Northern Ireland.[4] UK importers are likely to face significant disruptions, at least in the short term, as they get used to the additional red tape due to the application of full customs checks. This could have an important impact on EU export volumes to the UK, similar to the disruptions caused to UK exports to the EU when the EU started applying full customs checks on imports from the UK.

The Level Playing Field

Ensuring a post-Brexit “level playing field” was a key issue during the Brexit negotiations. A key fear of Brussels was that having left the strict rules of the EU, the UK would turn into an economy with limited regulations and uncontrolled subsidies while retaining duty free access to the Single Market. The TCA ended up including a number of components related to the level playing field, with key parts being related to subsidies and state-aid. The outcome of this on the UK side has been the UK Subsidy Control Bill 2021,[5] which seeks to strike a balance between the UK’s obligations under the TCA, while at the same time allowing the UK with sufficient flexibility to provide subsidies where it deems fit. In its current form, its principles regarding subsidy control largely mirror those of the TCA, although there does seem to be room for interpretation and it remains to be seen whether the EU will consider the implementation thereof to be in line with the TCA.

In parallel, the EU is in the process of adopting a new regime to address distortions caused in the EU market by foreign subsidies.[6] This would give the European Commission the power to investigate foreign subsidies granted to any company active in the EU and impose regressive measures to counteract any distortive effects (see our blog post describing this proposed regime here). While this proposed legislation is not specifically related to Brexit, it could have implications for UK companies active in the EU which have received UK subsidies.

The Northern Ireland Protocol

While Brexit happened on February 1, 2020, and the Brexit transition period ended on January 1, 2021, there are still many unresolved issues under negotiation. Throughout 2021 the EU and the UK have been engaged by intense negotiations regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has in effect resulted in Northern Ireland remaining in the EU Single market for goods. This has, however, resulted in several disruptions in trade between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland, with several customs checks on goods, and severe disruptions on agri-food products, due to the absence of a veterinary agreement.

These disruptions are despite the fact that all the checks under the Protocol have not yet been fully implemented, while the UK has continued to extend the “grace period” during which lesser checks apply.

Towards the end of 2021, the situation got very tense, with the UK threatening to unilaterally suspend part of the Protocol over continued trade disruptions caused by the Protocol. Although at the time of writing the situation seems to have somewhat settled down, UK red lines remain, and the UK remains prepared to suspend part of the Protocol should the parties not come to an agreement.[7]

Should the UK suspend (part of) the Protocol, the EU has indicated that it may initiate dispute settlement proceedings and/or take retaliatory measures. There is even the potential that the EU may renounce the TCA in its entirety if the UK suspends the Protocol, although this appears less likely. It is clear, however, that a UK suspension of the Protocol would have significant consequences for EU-UK relations; not only in terms of trade but also other issues dealt with in the agreement.

Regulatory landscape

Competition

Since the end of the transition period, EU competition law ceased to apply to the UK and EU competition law is no longer applied by UK enforcement authorities. Although they must have regard to EU guidance and future EU case law, they are not bound by future EU law and may depart where appropriate.

The UK’s competition authority, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is no longer party to the EEA’s cooperation network, nor does it benefit from the 60+ cooperation agreements between the EU and third countries. The TCA envisaged such an agreement and under discussion are provisions to share information, attend each other’s interviews (M&A and infringements), and request the other to conduct raids. However, it has yet to be concluded.

EU block exemptions (which define certain types of agreements that are allowed under the EU’s competition rules) have been retained as part of the UK’s domestic law. The EU has been conducting public consultations on some Block Exemptions which will expire soon, including those concerning vertical agreements. The CMA is in the process of preparing its own version. The two are likely to diverge, not least because the EU’s Single Market imperative is not relevant in the UK context, save as between the UK nations (where the UK now has its own UK Internal Markets Act).

As regards merger control, the UK regime is voluntary and the thresholds are unchanged. It is envisaged that mandatory notification may be introduced in the digital markets. The UK has now also adopted, in line with other major jurisdictions, a foreign direct investment (FDI) screening regime – the National Security and Investment Act (NSIA). Under the NSIA, there is currently mandatory notification of transactions required in 17 key “sensitive” sectors, including notably telecommunication, technology, and defense. The CMA has issued new Market Assessment Guidelines which, for example, broaden the CMA’s approach to when it will claim jurisdiction over a transaction. The CMA closely monitors the market and has significantly increased the review of transactions and called in completed transactions for investigation.

Sanctions

During Brexit negotiations, the EU and UK stated their desire to coordinate as much as possible on sanctions policy post-Brexit without agreeing on a formal framework to do so. The past year has seen several examples of continuing cooperation when EU and UK political priorities align, including announcing coordinated measures under their respective Belarus, Global Human Rights and Myanmar sanctions regimes. Yet, the decoupling brought about by Brexit has resulted in a degree of divergence between EU and UK sanctions priorities, designations and implementation.

The UK’s establishment of an autonomous Global Anti-Corruption sanctions regime in April 2021 underlines the UK’s efforts to develop a more agile autonomous sanctions regime that is capable of swift action. The move brought the UK more into line with the scope of the “Magnitsky” regimes adopted in the US and Canada, which unlike the EU’s Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime also apply to corruption offenses. It also emphasized the UK’s commitment to expanding the roster of like-minded international partners with which it will collaborate post-Brexit.

The decision to not directly transpose existing EU sanctions regimes into the UK’s new legal framework for sanctions already has resulted in divergence in designations and the implementation of sanctions policy, bringing with it the potential to create sanctions compliance difficulties for companies that are subject to both regimes. For example, the legal tests for designation are different in the EU and UK, which has resulted in disparities between EU and UK sanctions lists. It is likely that, over time, these differences will expand further in response to the refinement of designation thresholds and shifting political priorities. The UK also has introduced new tools, such as general licenses, to enable companies that meet certain conditions to undertake otherwise prohibited activities under specified sanctions regimes.  Such tools are absent from the EU’s sanctions architecture. This could potentially complicate the navigation of sanctions exemptions and licensing derogations for companies operating across Europe.

Insurance

In preparation for Brexit, many insurers rationalized their business so that UK business was handled by entities in the UK and EU business was handled by entities in the EU. Numerous books of business were transferred using portfolio transfers (almost half of those from the UK were to Ireland or Luxembourg). In other cases, insurers simply discontinued their UK or EU business.

The TCA, concluded at the last moment, largely excluded financial services.

Following Brexit, the right under EU law for insurers to passport from the UK into the EU, and vice versa, ended. However, the UK permitted EU insurers to carry on business as usual in the UK for a limited period, under a temporary permissions regime (“TPR”), the intention being to allow such insurers to become UK-authorised if they wished to do so. Fewer insurers than expected opted into the TPR. The EU did not offer any comparable arrangement, and most EU Member States now prohibit UK insurers from conducting new business and have stringent rules concerning the run-off of existing business.

During the Brexit negotiations, the possibility of the EU recognizing the UK as an equivalent regime under the EU’s insurance legislation was a key topic. Although the UK has granted equivalence to the EU, the EU has not done so with the UK’s regime. The EU and the UK regimes concerning solvency may diverge in the near future due to the ongoing reviews of an applicable framework on both sides of the Channel, which further reduces the likelihood of the EU recognizing the UK as equivalent.

UK and EU re-insurers have adjusted their operations to reflect the restricted market access rights, including by establishing local licensed entities and setting up appropriate outsourcing arrangements for the most efficient allocation of group resources.

Chemicals

Those campaigning for Brexit often cited the benefits of a more flexible, targeted, UK-centric approach to environmental regulation as one of the prizes, and in 2021 the UK government wasted no time in seeking reform. However, of all the environmental issues, the regulation of chemicals stands out as creating some of the biggest Brexit challenges.

The issue stems from the European approach of ‘no data, no market’, which requires companies to submit data on hazard properties through a registration process to obtain market access. The UK failed to reach an agreement with the EU on the existing database, so the independent regimes for the UK market require companies to populate new databases, at a cost estimated at over a billion euros.

In response to industry concerns about timescales and costs, in December 2021 the UK announced a review to explore a ‘new model’ for data packages, with longer timescales for submitting data and a greater focus on use and exposure, allowing ‘more targeted’ regulatory action. Also, in December 2021, the UK announced its approach to identifying ‘substances of very high concern’, setting a different process to the EU list. The moves generated an immediate reaction from NGOs who claim the UK is not upholding the terms of the TCA on ensuring a ‘level playing field’, and urging the EU to step in.

The arguments are likely to intensify in 2022, when the EU pushes forward with its legislative agenda to deliver the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability, with some significant changes predicted. In 2022 we also anticipate the UK’s own chemicals strategy, first promised in its 25 Year Environment Plan back in January 2018. With chemicals underpinning so much of the economy, this is an agenda with implications far beyond the chemicals sector itself, and international companies should monitor this closely. You can read more in our briefing.

Data protection

Brexit left a question mark over the flow of personal data between the UK and the EEA. That question was not resolved until June 2021 when the European Commission issued its decision confirming that the UK does ensure an adequate level of protection. While that outcome was highly political, it was difficult for the Commission to come to any other decision given that the UK had implemented the EU’s data protection legislation into national law and, to date, applied the case law of the European Court of Justice. However, the adequacy decision is not permanent. It may be revoked by the Commission if the UK no longer provides that requisite protection and will be reviewed in 2024. If that review does not result in an extension, the decision will expire on June 27, 2025.

Notwithstanding the above, the UK has flagged its intention to deviate from the EU’s privacy strategy by adopting a supposedly more business-friendly approach. In particular, the UK is likely to adopt its own set of adequacy decisions, develop domestic data transfer mechanisms and has stated its intention to overhaul the regulation of website cookies. In addition, the UK will not be a party to the upcoming changes in the EU to the regulation of cybersecurity, AI, and more.

How quickly and how far the UK deviates from the EU’s data protection legislation is yet to be seen. Whatever the possible deviations, the key question will be how far the EU is prepared to tolerate such divergence and still grant adequacy.

Criminal Investigations

The WA and the TCA have significant implications for cross-border cooperation in criminal matters in the UK and EU.

In relation to financial crime enforcement, the key provisions in the WA are contained in Title V on ‘Ongoing Police and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters.’  In relation to investigations and proceedings commenced before the end of the implementation period, requests or judicial orders received by the appropriate authority in the UK or EU prior to the end of the implementation period remain enforceable.  For requests or orders issued after that time (including European Investigation Orders (“EIOs”)) mutual legal assistance arrangements will need to be relied upon instead.  These arrangements can be administratively burdensome and time-consuming. There are also exceptions that allow members states to refuse to comply with a request, including where a matter has already been adjudicated on in another state, that state may refuse to comply with a request.

Part 3 of the TA concerns ‘Law Enforcement and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters,’ and covers a number of areas including exchanges of operational information, cooperation with Europol and Eurojust, surrender, mutual legal assistance, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, and freezing and confiscation orders.  Most significantly, the UK ceased being a member of Europol and Eurojust, with its influence and involvement being significantly reduced as a result.  The availability of the European Arrest Warrant (“EAW”) in the UK also came to an end, and was replaced by a new regime known as ‘surrender’.  In essence, surrender is based on the mutual recognition of arrest warrants issued by another state.  In contrast to an EAW, states can elect to refuse to comply with a request for surrender on the basis that the underlying offense is ‘political’, and may also elect to refuse to surrender their own nationals or attach conditions to the surrender of their own nationals.

The TCA also expressly provides for Joint Investigation Teams (“JITs”) between UK and EU member state investigating authorities, although it is largely silent on the detail.  It is envisaged that changing political moods and relationships have the potential to affect the willingness and ability of authorities to cooperate with each other.

Conclusion

While some of the impacts of the UK’s departure from the EU are becoming increasingly clear, much of the detail remains to be defined. The politics of Brexit are likely to remain fraught, both around the Northern Ireland Protocol and other areas such as fisheries, data privacy, chemicals, and financial services. Companies will need to follow very closely both the fine-tuning of existing arrangements as well as the way potential new arrangements will evolve. Steptoe and Johnson can offer detailed and informed commentary and advice on all the areas covered in this article.

_______________________________________________________________

*Co-authors: Renato Antonini, Eva Monard, Byron Maniatis, Charles Whiddington, Alexandra Melia, Guy Soussan, Angus Rodger, Simon Tilling, Ruxandra Cana, Leigh Mallon, Charles-Albert Helleputte, Diletta De Cicco, Zoe Osborne

[1] See https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11563419/6-16122021-%20AP-EN.pdf/fe1315b6-a0c5-56b3-3de3-13468db7becd, and https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10662401/6-16122020-BP-EN.pdf/083d8003-af99-e3c6-0294-6b5df4e68156.

[2] See https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/october2021#total-trade-three-monthly-and-annual-movements. After October 2018 disruptions caused by Brexit started to kick in, further exacerbated by the pandemic starting in 2020.

[3] In December, the British Chamber of Commerce reported that 45% of UK companies have had difficulties in trading under the new customs arrangements put in place by the TCA. See https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/12/almost-half-of-firms-facing-difficulties-trading-with-eu-under-post-brexit-trade-agreement.

[4] See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/less-than-a-month-until-full-customs-controls-are-introduced.

[5] See https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3015.

[6] See https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_198.

[7] See https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-to-eu-british-position-on-northern-ireland-remains-unchanged/.

polycarboxylic acid

Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports Experience a Fourfold Increase over Past Decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Turkey – Polycarboxylic Acids – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Turkey featured a record growth of polycarboxylic acid imports over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, imports surged fourfold in physical terms and twofold in value terms. In 2020, the supplies to Turkey rose by +41% y-o-y to 1.4M tonnes. South Korea remains the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acids, accounting for 41% of Turkey’s imports. The average polycarboxylic acid import price fell by -36% y-o-y to $599 per tonne in 2020.

Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports by Country

Over the last decade, Turkey’s polycarboxylic acid imports grew from 322K tonnes to 1.4M tonnes. In value terms, imports soared from $401M to $825M during this period.

In 2020, polycarboxylic acid imports into Turkey surged by +41% y-o-y against 2019. In value terms, imports fell from $915M in 2019 to $825M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, South Korea (568K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acid to Turkey, accounting for a 41% share of total imports. Moreover, polycarboxylic acid imports from South Korea exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Belgium (249K tonnes), twofold. Portugal (226K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 16% share.

In 2020, the volume of imports from South Korea increased by +41.2% y-o-y. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following growth of supplies: Belgium (+69.9% y-o-y), Portugal (+1.5% y-o-y).

In value terms, South Korea ($312M) constituted the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acid to Turkey, comprising 38% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Belgium ($134M), with a 16% share of total imports, and it was followed by Portugal, with a 15% share.

In 2020, the average polycarboxylic acid import price amounted to $599 per tonne, waning by -35.8% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,031 per tonne), while the price for Belgium ($539 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

ethylene

The UK, Norway and Finland Benefit from Rising Sweden’s Ethylene Imports

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Sweden – Ethylene – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Sweden is rapidly ramping up ethylene imports. In the first half of 2021, Sweden purchased 100K tonnes of ethylene. Last year, imports spiked from $125M to $388M, or from 116K tonnes to 525K tonnes in physical terms. The UK, Norway and Finland supply 80% of Sweden’s ethylene imports. In 2020, the UK’s exports rose fourfold, while Norway’s and Finland’s recorded an eightfold increase. The average ethylene import price dropped by -31.8% y-o-y to $739 per tonne.

Ethylene Imports into Sweden

In the first half of 2021, Sweden imported 100K tonnes of ethylene. Over the last year, imports soared from 116K tonnes to 525K tonnes. In value terms, imports surged from $125M in 2019 to $388M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, the UK (295K tonnes) constituted the largest ethylene supplier to Sweden, with a 56% share of total imports. Moreover, ethylene imports from the UK exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Norway (88K tonnes), threefold. Finland (36K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total ethylene imports with a 6.8% share.

Over the last year, imports from the UK grew fourfold in physical terms. Purchases from Norway and Finland increased by eight times, while France expanded exports to Sweden threefold.

In value terms, the UK ($227M) constituted the largest supplier of ethylene to Sweden, comprising 59% of total imports. The second position in this ranking was occupied by Norway ($62M), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by Finland, with a 7.2% share.

In 2020, the average ethylene import price amounted to $739 per tonne, declining by -31.8% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were the Netherlands ($776 per tonne) and Finland ($774 per tonne), while the price for Portugal ($628 per tonne) and France ($641 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal, while the prices of the other significant suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform 

grain

EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Grain – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There’s a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84М tonnes due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook, there will be a decrease in the livestock herd in the EU in the next two years, causing lower demand for feed and a subsequent drop in grain prices. In 2024, wheat prices should decline from 206 to 178 euros per tonne, barley from 189 to 174 euros per tonne, and maize from 206 to 165 euros per tonne. This scenario is only possible if gas prices fall and the fertilizer imbalance is eliminated. However, high gas costs make fertilizer production in the EU less profitable and limit the possibility of a drop in prices in the next few years.

Demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU will remain stable, while consumption of phosphorus fertilizers will expand, driven by an increase in the input per hectare. As EU countries do not have enough phosphorus supply, a large share of the gains in consumption will be balanced by imports from the U.S., Morocco and China.

In 2025, grain prices will rise again due to higher energy resources and fertilizers costs. By 2031, costs per tonne for wheat are expected to reach 202 euros, barley – 183 euros and maize – 182 euros.

Demand for organic produce will continue to grow as Europeans place more and more preference on healthy products. This additionally will push prices up as the yield for organic produce is lower than with conventional crops due to the less aggressive use of fertilizers and pesticides.

The EU is forecast to remain competitive on the global grain market, although its share in the global exports will decrease due to tough competition from other key players, especially from the Black Sea region. Grain trade in the EU will reduce by 8% to 84М tonnes in 2025 (IndexBox estimates).

EU Grain Trade 

In 2020, the amount of grain exported in the EU stood at 91M tonnes, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In value terms, exports rose significantly to $23.2B.

France was the major exporting country with about 32M tonnes, which accounted for 35% of total exports. Germany (12M tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Romania (11M tonnes), Poland (9M tonnes) and Lithuania (4.9M tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of exports in the EU. The Czech Republic (3.4M tonnes), Latvia (3.4M tonnes), Slovakia (2M tonnes), Croatia (1.9M tonnes), Sweden (1.8M tonnes) and Denmark (1.6M tonnes) occupied a minor share of the total supplies.

In value terms, France ($7.7B) remains the largest grain supplier in the EU, comprising 33% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($2.8B), with a 12% share, followed by Romania (10% share).

In France, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% in 2020. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+56.7% y-o-y) and Romania (-15.7% y-o-y).

The grain export price in the EU stood at $255 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 5% against the previous year. Major exporting countries recorded the following prices: France ($245 per tonne), Germany ($230 per tonne). In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

safety glass

China Ramped Up Safety Glass Exports Threefold in Past Decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Safety Glass – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

China boosted safety glass supplies abroad nearly threefold in the past decade, from $1.3B to $3.0B, topping the global exporter ranking. With an average annual growth rate of +8.5% over the last decade, China emerges as the fastest-growing supplier. Germany held the leading position in global exports until 2010, but now, it remains the largest safety glass importer, along with the U.S. and Vietnam. In 2020, the global safety glass trade reduced by -6% y-o-y to 366M square meters, and China’s supplies accounted for 58% of that volume. In value terms, global trade fell to $9.5B last year, dropping by -10% y-o-y.

Global Safety Glass Exports by Country

Global safety glass exports declined to 366M square meters in 2020, which is down by -6.2% compared with the year before. Total exports indicated noticeable growth from 2010 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade.

In value terms, safety glass exports reduced from $10.5B in 2019 to $9.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2010 to 2020.

China prevails in safety glass export structure, amounting to 214M square meters, which was near 58% of total exports in 2020. Germany (29M square meters) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Poland (19M square meters). All these countries together held approx. 13% share of total exports. The following exporters – Italy (13M square meters), Turkey (11M square meters), France (8.7M square meters), the Czech Republic (8.7M square meters), Belgium (8.3M square meters), Hungary (8M square meters), the Netherlands (6.1M square meters) and Mexico (5.7M square meters) – together made up 19% of total exports.

In value terms, China ($3B) remains the largest safety glass supplier worldwide, comprising 31% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($1B), with a 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Poland, with a 7.6% share.

From 2010 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +8.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+0.2% per year) and Poland (+4.3% per year).

The average safety glass export price stood at $26 per square meter in 2020, with a decrease of -3.4% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($46 per square meter), while China ($14 per square meter) was amongst the lowest. From 2010 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

World’s Largest Safety Glass Importers

In 2020, Viet Nam (33M square meters), Germany (31M square meters), the U.S. (30M square meters), South Korea (24M square meters), Thailand (21M square meters), France (17M square meters), Belgium (12M square meters), the Netherlands (10M square meters), Italy (8.9M square meters), the UK (8.3M square meters), Taiwan (Chinese) (7.7M square meters) and Spain (7.1M square meters) was the main importer of safety glass in the world, comprising 65% of total import. Poland (6.4M square meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, the largest safety glass importing markets worldwide were Germany ($1.1B), the U.S. ($955M) and Viet Nam ($738M), together comprising 29% of global imports.

Source: IndexBox Platform

wine

France’s Wine Exports Strongly Rebound After Last Year’s Drop

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘France – Wine – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Wine exports from France are returning to pre-pandemic levels this year. Throughout January-September 2021, France’s supplies abroad reached $9.56B, increasing by +43% compared to the same period of 2020. Last year, the Covid-crisis hit the French wine trade, reducing exports by -9% y-o-y (based on USD values). Germany, the UK and the U.S. remain the major foreign buyers, accounting for 42% of total wine exports from France. The average wine export price dropped by -5.5% y-o-y to $7,026 per tonne in 2020. 

France’s Wine Exports by Country

From January to September 2021, France’s wine exports totaled $9.56B, exceeding by +43% the value of the same period in 2020. Last year, wine exports contracted to $10B (IndexBox estimates), dropping by -9% y-o-y. In physical terms, wine exports from France fell slightly to 1.4M tonnes, declining by -3.8% on the previous year’s figure.

Germany (232K tonnes), the UK (204K tonnes) and the U.S. (161K tonnes) were the main destinations of wine exports from France, with a combined 42% share of total exports. Belgium, the Netherlands, China, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Poland lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 40%. Switzerland (+63.7% y-o-y) recorded the highest increase in purchases as compared to other countries.

In value terms, the largest markets for wine exported from France were the U.S. ($1.6B), the UK ($1.3B) and Germany ($832M), with a combined 38% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Belgium, Japan, China, Switzerland, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden and Poland, which accounted for a further 33%.

In 2020, the average wine export price amounted to $7,026 per tonne, dropping by -5.5% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($10,788 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Poland ($3,149 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. Last year, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform