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The Global Mineral Wool Market Started to Slow Down

mineral wool

The Global Mineral Wool Market Started to Slow Down

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Slag Wool, Rock Wool And Similar Mineral Wools And Mixtures – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

For the fifth consecutive year, the global mineral wool market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 0.3% to $30.9B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is likely to continue growing in years to come.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of mineral wool consumption in 2019 were China (4.9M tonnes), the U.S. (3.9M tonnes) and India (2M tonnes), together comprising 56% of global consumption. Japan, Russia, Mexico, Germany, South Korea, Thailand, Canada and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of mineral wool consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while mineral wool consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($6.8B), the U.S. ($6.2B) and Japan ($5.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 58% of the global market. India, Mexico, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Russia, Thailand and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

The countries with the highest levels of mineral wool per capita consumption in 2019 were the U.S. (12 kg per person), Japan (9.63 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (8.70 kg per person).

Production

In 2019, global mineral wool production expanded to 19M tonnes, increasing by 4.3% compared with the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of mineral wool production in 2019 were China (5M tonnes), the U.S. (3.8M tonnes) and India (2M tonnes), with a combined 56% share of global production. These countries were followed by Japan, Russia, Mexico, Germany, South Korea, Canada, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and Poland, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of mineral wool production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while mineral wool production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

After three years of growth, purchases abroad of slag wool, rock wool and similar mineral wools and mixtures decreased by -3.3% to 2.3M tonnes in 2019. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2013 to 2019. Global imports peaked at 2.3M tonnes in 2018, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, mineral wool imports shrank slightly to $2.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2019; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

Imports by Country

France (183K tonnes), Italy (156K tonnes), the U.S. (137K tonnes), Germany (132K tonnes), Austria (113K tonnes), Romania (85K tonnes), Kazakhstan (81K tonnes), Sweden (81K tonnes), Poland (72K tonnes), the Czech Republic (67K tonnes), Belgium (63K tonnes) and Belarus (59K tonnes) represented roughly 54% of total imports of slag wool, rock wool and similar mineral wools and mixtures in 2019.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Romania, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest mineral wool importing markets worldwide were Germany ($203M), the U.S. ($186M) and France ($180M), with a combined 22% share of global imports. Italy, Austria, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Romania, Kazakhstan and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Import Prices by Country

The average mineral wool import price stood at $1,155 per tonne in 2019, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a slight shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 4.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $1,295 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,535 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($485 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

railway

France, Italy, and Austria Drive the European Railroad Rail Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Railway Or Tramway Track Construction Material Of Iron Or Steel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the EU market for railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel increased by 1.9% to $3.1B, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $3.7B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel in 2019 were France (463K tonnes), Italy (434K tonnes) and Germany (369K tonnes), together accounting for 40% of total consumption. These countries were followed by the UK, Poland, Austria, Spain, the Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Luxembourg, which together accounted for a further 52%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by France, Italy, and Austria, while consumption of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest iron and steel railway construction materials markets in the European Union were France ($601M), Italy ($506M) and Germany ($333M), together accounting for 47% of the total market. These countries were followed by Spain, Austria, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic and the UK, which together accounted for a further 43%.

In 2019, the highest levels of per capita consumption of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel were registered in Luxembourg (108 kg per person), followed by Austria (30 kg per person), Belgium (9.15 kg per person) and the Netherlands (8.78 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of iron and steel railway construction materials was estimated at 6.13 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of the per capita consumption of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel in Luxembourg totaled -3.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Austria (+14.8% per year) and Belgium (+0.2% per year).

Production in the EU

In 2019, production of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel increased by 1.4% to 3.2M tonnes, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, production of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel expanded remarkably to $5.4B in 2019 estimated at export prices.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel in 2019 were Austria (718K tonnes), Poland (406K tonnes) and Spain (387K tonnes), with a combined 48% share of total production.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Poland, while the production of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

For the third consecutive year, the European Union recorded growth in overseas purchases of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel, which increased by 4.9% to 1.4M tonnes in 2019. Total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +32.8% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2019 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come. In value terms, imports of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel dropped to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

In 2019, Germany (314K tonnes), distantly followed by Italy (173K tonnes), France (155K tonnes), the UK (118K tonnes), Poland (88K tonnes) and Belgium (86K tonnes) were the major importers of railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel, together creating 69% of total imports. The Czech Republic (59K tonnes), Sweden (55K tonnes), Spain (55K tonnes), the Netherlands (35K tonnes), Hungary (33K tonnes) and Portugal (27K tonnes) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Italy, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($271M), Italy ($201M) and France ($126M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, with a combined 45% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The import price for railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel in the European Union stood at $993 per tonne in 2019, falling by -11.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a mild curtailment.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Hungary ($1,402 per tonne), while the UK ($655 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

tea

The UK Remains an Indisputable Leader for the European Tea Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Tea – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the EU tea market decreased by -5.1% to 214K tonnes, slipping back slightly from the previous year. Over the last five years, consumption remains relatively stable which indicates that any prerequisites for sharp growth of the demand aren’t currently expected.

Consumption by Country

The country with the largest volume of tea consumption was the UK (104K tonnes), accounting for 48% of total volume. Moreover, tea consumption in the UK exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (27K tonnes), fourfold. Poland (15K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7% share.

In the UK, tea consumption contracted by an average annual rate of -1.5% over the period from 2013-2019. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (+0.7% per year) and Poland (+0.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tea per capita consumption in 2019 were Ireland (2,314 kg per 1000 persons), the UK (1,540 kg per 1000 persons) and the Netherlands (536 kg per 1000 persons).

Imports in the EU

Tea imports reduced modestly to 311K tonnes in 2019, with a decrease of -3.5% against 2018 figures. In general, imports recorded a mild decline. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 344K tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, imports remained at a lower figure. In value terms, tea imports fell to $1.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

In 2019, the UK (123K tonnes) represented the key importer of tea, creating the demand for approx. 40% of total imports. Germany (50K tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Poland (38K tonnes), the Netherlands (17K tonnes), France (17K tonnes) and Belgium (14K tonnes). All these countries together occupied approx. 44% share of total imports. Ireland (12K tonnes) held a minor share of total imports.

Imports in the UK decreased at an average annual rate of -1.8% from 2013 to 2019. At the same time, Ireland (+7.7%) and Poland (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Ireland emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +7.7% from 2013-2019. By contrast, France (-1.5%), Germany (-1.6%), Belgium (-3.5%) and the Netherlands (-11.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, the largest tea importing markets in the European Union were the UK ($356M), Germany ($228M) and France ($167M), with a combined 51% share of total imports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium and Ireland, which together accounted for a further 26%.

Import Prices by Country

The tea import price in the European Union stood at $4,701 per tonne in 2019, remaining constant against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 7.1% year-to-year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $4,754 per tonne in 2018, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was France ($9,624 per tonne), while the UK ($2,890 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

trade

Free Trade Agreements: Is There a Trade Lane Left Without One?

Since the first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 1860, a lot has happened. A solid 160 years will do that for you. On the FTA front specifically, the focus has also shifted: what used to be an opportunity for significant duty reduction and, therefore, a more competitive position in the FTA partner’s home market has turned into a tool for faster access to the market and control of a trading relationship. With the applied, weighted, mean duty rates globally down to 2.59% from 8.57% in 1994 (Source: macrotrends.net based on World Trade Organization (WTO) data), the importance of duty rate reduction has been marginalized—so why is there still such a strong movement towards adding more FTAs to an already considerable total worldwide?

Some Recent Developments

Trade agreements are not only about duty rates anymore; the collaboration and facilitation part is just as, if not more, important. That means trading partners make efforts to reduce the paperwork on the trade lane, give priority to incoming shipments, and collaborate on data exchange and simplification of procedures. In today’s economies, these elements are just as crucial as a few duty points. In addition to the facilitation, environmental clauses are included in new FTAs. Got to start somewhere. Customs unions (like the EU) take it one step further—they usually allow for goods to move freely between member states and have a single common tariff for the outside world.

In a similar fashion, the FTA accounts for financial and administrative arrangements that are not limited to duty rates and import documents. In a broader scope, abolishing of export subsidies, transparency with added value calculations, investigative cooperations, etc. are part of the package and simplify the use and verification of FTA claims.

Perhaps not a trend (yet?), but the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean is loosening its Rules of Origin (likely in effect in 2021). Rules of Origin set forth the requirements that need to be met to benefit from FTA arrangements (i.e., qualify for preferential treatment). Typically, Rules of Origin encompass a required tariff shift (i.e., a substantial transformation needs to take place) and/or a value-added component (i.e., the value add of locally sourced parts, materials, labor, etc. needs to exceed a specific threshold). The value-added thresholds have historically been relatively high (60% and up) and loosening those requirements will simply allow more products to qualify, which will give developing countries especially more opportunities to qualify their exports for preferential treatment.

Per the WTO, over 300 Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) are currently in force. This number only reflects agreements that include preferential duty rate schemes, as agreements such as bilateral investment treaties or Joint Commissions would increase this number two- or three-fold. The RTA number includes bilateral/local agreements as well as ‘monster trade pacts’ such as the EU, USMCA or ASEAN – China agreements. It has been a steady growth of FTAs since the 1990s, with a peak in the action between 2003 and 2011. And (see below) there is no end in sight.

What’s Next?

Go big or go home is what the EU is thinking. Agreements are in place with around 40 countries, ratification in progress for agreements with around 30 countries, and agreements with another 20 countries are waiting to be signed. For any countries left behind, it seems that there are ongoing negotiations (e.g., Australia, New Zealand) or plans to negotiate. Don’t despair.

Never-ending speculation on a Trans Atlantic agreement (US – EU) or a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) including the US will not be put to rest until actually completed and in force (the US withdrew from the TPP in 2017). The US currently has 14 FTAs with 20 countries, re-did the USMCA in 2020, and negotiations with Kenya and Taiwan seem to be in the works.

Lastly, with Brexit in its final stages, the UK is also breaking off FTA relationships with EU partners. That means the UK will have to create separate FTAs with these countries. Practically, not all of the EU FTAs will have a UK equivalent by January 1, 2021, and some may never be in place. This means regular (Most Favored Nations – MFN) rates will apply come January 1 unless another preferential program (like the Generalized System of Preferences) applies. But with the UK exit comes an opportunity for Britain to conclude agreements the EU has not been able to pull off. Perhaps a US – UK FTA is nearer than thought. Let’s check the odds on that!

___________________________________________________________________

Anne van de Heetkamp is VP of Product Management and Global Trade Content at Descartes and is an international trade expert with 20+ years of industry experience. Previously he served as Director for global trade compliance/management company, TradeBeam.

cabbage

Portugal and Spain Emerge as the Fastest-Growing Exporters in the European Cabbage Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Cabbage And Other Brassicas – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The EU cabbage market rose significantly to $3.1B in 2019, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $3.1B in 2013; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cabbage consumption in 2019 were Romania (1.1M tonnes), Poland (924K tonnes), and Germany (693K tonnes), with a combined 59% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by the UK, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Austria, and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while cabbage consumption for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, Poland ($510M), Germany ($438M) and Romania ($425M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together accounting for 45% of the total market.

In 2019, the highest levels of cabbage per capita consumption was registered in Romania (57 kg per person), followed by Poland (24 kg per person), Portugal (10 kg per person) and Belgium (9.60 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cabbage was estimated at 9 kg per person.

Production in the EU

In 2019, the production of cabbage and other brassicas decreased by -1.3% to 4.6M tonnes, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, production showed a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 4.2% y-o-y. As a result, production reached a peak volume of 5.3M tonnes. From 2015 to 2019, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild decline of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cabbage production in 2019 were Romania (1.1M tonnes), Poland (955K tonnes), and Germany (591K tonnes), with a combined 58% share of total production. Italy, the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Portugal, Belgium, and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cabbage production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Spain, while cabbage production for the other leaders experienced a decline in the production figures.

Harvested Area and Yield in the EU

The cabbage harvested area fell to 156K ha in 2019, standing approx. the year before. In general, the harvested area showed a mild descent. The level of harvested area peaked at 166K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, it remained at a lower figure.

The average cabbage yield amounted to 29 tonnes per ha in 2019, almost unchanged from the year before. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports in the EU

In 2019, the amount of cabbage and other brassicas exported in the European Union expanded slightly to 656K tonnes, growing by 2.5% compared with 2018 figures. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 7.1% y-o-y. As a result, exports attained the peak of 743K tonnes. From 2015 to 2019, the growth exports remained at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, cabbage exports expanded sharply to $613M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands represented the major exporting country with an export of around 210K tonnes, which reached 32% of total exports. Spain (99K tonnes) occupied a 15% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (12%), Italy (11%), Poland (8.9%), Belgium (7.3%) and Portugal (5.3%).

The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to the volume of exports of cabbage and other brassicas. At the same time, Portugal (+9.0%), Spain (+6.2%), Belgium (+3.9%), and Italy (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Portugal emerged as the fastest-growing cabbage exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +9.0% from 2013-2019. By contrast, Germany (-2.4%) and Poland (-13.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($224M) remains the largest cabbage supplier in the European Union, comprising 37% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Spain ($107M), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 15% share.

Export Prices by Country

The cabbage export price in the European Union stood at $934 per tonne in 2019, rising by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2019, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.4%. As a result, export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growing in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,321 per tonne), while Poland ($609 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

lemon juice

The Pandemic Hampers the Growth of the Global Concentrated Lemon Juice Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Concentrated Lemon And Other Citrus Fruit Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Only a Slight Growth of the Global Concentrated Lemon Juice Market is Expected, As The Pandemic Hit Major Importing Countries

The value of the global concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice (excl. orange and grapefruit juice) market stood at approx. $647M in 2019, declining by -6.0% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

In physical terms, global concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice consumption also declined slightly the last year, amounting to 258K tonnes in 2019. From 2015-2018, the market increased steadily, but in 2019 the growth lost its momentum due to a slight decrease in the lemon harvest in Argentina, which remains the largest lemon juice producing country.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption of concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice in 2019 were the U.S. (31K tonnes), Argentina (16K tonnes) and Japan (15K tonnes), with a combined 24% share of global consumption (IndexBox estimates). These countries were followed by Canada, Spain, Germany, China, India, Peru, France, Brazil and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 38%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption of concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Spain, while consumption of concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice markets worldwide were the U.S. ($79M), Japan ($56M) and Argentina ($47M), with a combined 28% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Germany, Spain, China, Canada, France, Brazil, India, Mexico and Peru, which together accounted for a further 37%.

The countries with the highest levels of concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice per capita consumption in 2019 were Canada (371 kg per 1000 persons), Argentina (354 kg per 1000 persons) and Peru (298 kg per 1000 persons).

Concentrated lemon juice is a well-known product in South America and in Southern Europe, as well as, being imported, in the U.S., Canada, and across Western Europe. By contrast, in Southern and South-Eastern Asia, the market is relatively underdeveloped; however, China emerges as the fastest-growing lemon juice importer – rapid urbanization and the rising popularity of the western-style cuisine drive the use of lemon juice here.

Apart from the other types of juices which are largely consumed as a beverage, concentrated lemon juice is used as an ingredient in various recipes in baking, grilling, and as an ingredient in marinades and salad dressings, in cocktails, hot tea, lemonade, and hot lemonade. It also may have some non-food applications like home deodorization and cleaning. Therefore, population growth remains a fundamental market driver, combined with increases in disposable income, which in turn will contribute to enhanced consumer spending.

The major downside risk for market growth comes from the possible contraction of incomes due to the COVID pandemic. In the context of falling incomes, consumers primarily tend to exclude non-staple goods from purchases, which include concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice.

Concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice is a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output increased from near 72% in 2007 to about 86% in 2019 (IndexBox estimates). This is conditioned by the rising demand for tropical and citrus fruit juices in those countries that don’t grow many lemons like the U.S., Europe, and Canada, on the one hand, and Argentina’s (together with some other countries) specialization in lemons, on the other hand.

The largest concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($102M), the Netherlands ($87M), and Japan ($63M), with a combined 40% share of global imports. Germany, France, Spain, Canada, Italy, the UK, China, Israel, and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%. The hit of the pandemic in the U.S. and Europe was severe, which leads to a dramatic drop in terms of GDP and consumer spending. This is to affect the consumption of concentrated lemon juice which is largely supplied by imports.

In Latin America, the impact of the crisis on domestic demand should be less significant because concentrated lemon and other citrus fruits and concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit juice are available locally. However, the concentrated lemon and other citrus fruit industry in large producing countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) are largely export-oriented, therefore, the decrease in demand in Western countries can damage local producers and cause further disruption of supply chains.

Accordingly, the market is expected to decrease somewhat in 2020 and then to start recovering gradually. Over the next decade, the market is expected to grow modestly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 265K tonnes by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Brexit

Preparing to Cross Brexit’s Finish Line

For many, the onset of Brexit’s transitional period, which began on February 1, 2020, probably seems like an eternity ago, particularly considering the global pandemic that has consumed world affairs since that time.

But while the outcome of the transitional period may no longer be top of mind, its final stages are rapidly approaching, and businesses engaged in trade with the UK, the EU or both will need to begin preparing for changes that will take place as early as January 1, 2021. The governments of the UK and EU have now publicized clear guidance on what will be required with the official splitting of ties between the two entities – guidance that will determine how enterprises will trade, and what processes they will be required to follow in a post-Brexit landscape.

In February 2020, the UK’s government said it would implement full border controls on imports coming into Great Britain from the European Union. This statement has now been eased with the UK taking the decision to introduce the new border controls in three stages ending July 1, 2021. Downing Street has also published the “Border Operating Model,” which provides visibility and instruction to traders.

The details of these three stages of border controls for imports are as follows:

IMPORTS

1st January 2021

-Importers of non-controlled goods will need to prepare for basic customs requirements, such as keeping sufficient records of imported goods and completing customs declarations within six months of the date of import.

-Importers of controlled goods, however, will need to prepare for full customs declarations at the point of importation.

-There will be physical checks by the authorities at the point of U.K. destination (or other approved premises) on all high-risk live animals and plants where there is a biosecurity risk.

1st April 2021

-All Products of Animal Origin (POAO) will require pre-notification to British customs authorities along with the requisite health documentation. This includes meat, pet food, honey, milk or egg products.

-Physical checks will continue to be conducted at point of U.K. destination until July 1st

-All regulated plants and plant products require pre-notification to British customs authorities along with the requisite health documentation. A full listing of products will be published by the authorities prior to implementation.

-High-risk food and feed, which is not of animal origin will also require import pre-notifications to British Customs Authorities in advance of the goods’ arrival.

-For any high-risk food and feed, which is not of animal origin, importers will need to submit pre-notifications via the Import of Products, Animals, Food and Feed System (IPAFFS)

1st July 2021

-Importers moving goods will have to make pre-lodged notice to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), complete full declarations and pay tariffs at the point of importation directly or via their nominated representatives.

-The pre-lodged model requires all goods coming into Great Britain to have been declared to HM Revenue & Customs prior to export, the carrier normally undertakes this declaration on behalf of traders. Pre-lodgement allows HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to complete risk-assessments and clear many imports and transit movements prior to their arrival in the UK.

-To support the pre-lodgement requirement of HMRC the UK Government will also be implementing the Goods Vehicle Movement System (GVMS). The GVMS system is an IT platform that will support pre-lodgement. This will enable the linking of goods, customs brokers and customs through a referencing system, allowing the shipment to be customs cleared enroute to the UK or providing notification of a customs inspection upon arrival.

-Full Safety and Security declarations are required.

-For Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) commodities, there will be an increase in physical checks that will now take place at Great Britain Border Control Posts.

EXPORTS

Any exports from Great Britain after January 1, 2021 to European Union destinations will be treated as third-country exports and, as such, full export customs processes and declarations will be required by HM Revenue and Customs.  This includes a full Safety and Security declaration prior to exit from the UK and an export entry declaration.

When declaring goods for export, an organization will require the following:

-An Economic Operator Registration and Identification Number (also known as an EORI number), which is a unique ID code used to track and register customs information.

-Commodity Code for the goods

-Correct Customs Procedure Code (CPC)

-If required, an Advanced Customs Ruling on the commodity code or country of origin.

-License validation and application as required.

-All paperwork (including any licenses) to be submitted to customs, usually via an intermediary, such as a customs broker.

If export customs formalities are to be completed by the organization rather than an intermediary, the following steps must additionally be implemented:

-Setup the organization for making customs declarations:

–Register for National Export System (NES)

–Apply for CHIEF badges from HMRC

–If applicable, register to export plants or controlled goods

-Complete internal training in the completion of export declarations and record-keeping requirements

-Submit all export declarations through NES

Understanding these requirements and preparing for them in advance will allow exporters to the UK — and those trans-shipping goods to the EU via the UK to avoid border delays and/or penalties for incomplete or inaccurate customs documentation.

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Paul Woodward is a Senior Consultant in the Global Trade Consulting division of trade services firm Livingston International. He can be reached at PWoodward@livingstonintl.com.

pork

European Pork Production is Supported by Strong Demand from China

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Pork (Meat Of Swine) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Despite the decline in pork consumption in the EU and the UK, domestic producers may receive support due to growing demand from China.

The European Union and the UK together are the largest pork supplier to the global market, and the second-largest consumer in the world, only China is ahead. On the contrary, producers in China are facing serious problems due to the forced reduction in animal numbers in the wake of the African swine fever epidemic.

According to FAO forecasts, pork production in China may fall to 34 million tonnes in 2020, which is almost 17 percent lower than in 2018. The shortage of products in the local market is offset by growing supplies, mainly from Europe and Latin America, in particular Brazil. The United States, the world’s second-largest pork exporter, is losing the Chinese market as a result of a protracted trade war with Beijing, which imposed a 72 percent tariff on US pork in 2019.

In 2020, Europeans can enjoy not only an increase in supplies to China but also rising world prices for pork. This is especially important when the borders for export to Russia are closed due to mutual sanctions. After four years, this market can be considered lost for the Europeans due to the rapidly growing production of Russian farmers.

Pork Production in the EU and the UK

In 2019, pork production in the European Union reached 24M tonnes and is likely to see steady growth in years to come. The countries with the highest volumes of pork production in 2019 were Germany (5.4M tonnes), Spain (4.6M tonnes), and France (2.2M tonnes), with a combined 53% share of total production.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals

In 2019, approx. 245M heads of animals slaughtered for pork production in the European Union; a decrease of 2% on 2018 figures. Overall, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the number of producing animals increased by 2% year-to-year.

Yield

In 2019, the average yield of pork in the European Union amounted to 93 kg per head, approximately mirroring the year before. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 1.8% year-to-year. The level of yield peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of pork consumption in 2019 were Germany (4.5M tonnes), Spain (3M tonnes), and Poland (2.4M tonnes), with a combined 47% share of total consumption.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($12.5B), Spain ($8.9B), and Italy ($5.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 50% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of pork per capita consumption in 2019 were Denmark (115 kg per person), Spain (65 kg per person) and Poland (62 kg per person).

Exports in the EU and the UK

In value terms, pork exports rose markedly to $20.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2009 to 2019. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, exports reached the peak figure at $21.2B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports failed to regain the momentum despite the recent increase in shipments to China.

Exports by Country

Germany (1.8M tonnes) and Spain (1.7M tonnes) were the main exporters of pork in 2019, recording near 23% and 22% of total exports, respectively. Denmark (958K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by the Netherlands (12%), Belgium (8.5%) and Poland (5.7%). France (351K tonnes) occupied a little share of total exports.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($5.1B), Germany ($5B) and Denmark ($2.7B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, together accounting for 62% of total exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and France, which together accounted for a further 27%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The pork export price in the European Union stood at $2,641 per tonne in 2019, picking up by 9.2% against the previous year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the countries with the highest prices were Spain ($2,978 per tonne) and Germany ($2,800 per tonne), while Poland ($2,146 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,186 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

france

USTR Announces Additional Duties on Cosmetics and Handbags from France, Delays Effective Date Until January 2021

On July 10, 2020, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that it would impose a 25 percent additional duty on certain cosmetics, soaps and cleansing products, and handbags that are products of France, valued at $1.3 billion, due to the French Digital Services Tax (DST). Nevertheless, USTR delayed the application of the duties for as long as 180 days, which means that at the earliest, the additional duties would go into effect January 6, 2020.  USTR stated that the tariffs could go into effect sooner than the 180-day suspension period, but if this change were to occur, USTR would issue a subsequent Federal Register Notice amending the effective date of implementation for the tariffs.

In July 2019, USTR opened an investigation directed at the Government of France under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, because of France’s new DST, which imposed a 3 percent revenue tax on companies providing certain online services directed at French customers. In December 2019, USTR found that the French DST was “unreasonable, discriminatory, and burdens U.S. commerce” and was expected to collect over $500 million in taxes for activities in 2021. USTR accepted comments from interested parties in early 2020 on a proposed list of goods targeted for additional tariffs, which included French cheeses, wines, cosmetics, and handbags. However, prior to the imposition of additional duties, the U.S. and French governments were able to negotiate a truce that temporarily delayed the implementation of the DST until December 2020 and obviated the need for USTR to take immediate action.

USTR has stated that this action concerning tariffs on certain French goods is not intended to escalate trade tensions with France but instead was necessitated by Section 304(a)(2)(B) of the Trade Act of 1974 requiring that USTR announce the action to be taken within 12 months of the initiation of the Section 301 investigation. The 180-day delay of the imposition of the tariffs is intended to provide USTR and France additional time to continue discussions, which could lead to a satisfactory resolution of the DST matter.

USTR has stated that it will continue to monitor the effect of the trade action and may modify the list of affected goods necessary to ensure resolution of the matter with the Government of France.

This action comes on the heels of USTR announcing a similar action into digital service taxes involving India, the European Union and several other countries. Over the last few years, various governments have enacted or considered taxes on revenues generated by digital services companies within the different jurisdictions. Proponents of DSTs argue that the tax corrects corporate taxation to cover previously untaxed or undertaxed revenues. Alternatively, the position of the Trump administration is that DSTs unfairly discriminate against “large, U.S.-based tech companies” such as Amazon and Google.

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Robert Stang is a Washington, D.C.-based partner with the law firm Husch Blackwell LLP. He leads the firm’s Customs group.

Emily Lyons is an attorney in Husch Blackwell LLP’s Washington, D.C. office.

egg

Despite Ranking only Fifth in Terms of Market Size, the Netherlands Leads European Chicken Egg Exports

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Hen Eggs – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the EU chicken egg market decreased by -2.1% to $12.7B for the first time since 2016, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. The level of consumption peaked at $15.8B in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

In physical terms, the volume of consumption amounted to 6.3M tonnes which remained relatively stable against the previous year; over the last decade, it increased gradually with some slight fluctuations in certain years.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of chicken egg consumption in 2019 were Germany (1.1M tonnes), France (881K tonnes) and Spain (761K tonnes), together accounting for 44% of total consumption. Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Hungary and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of chicken egg consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Belgium, while chicken egg consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest chicken egg markets in the European Union were Germany ($2.3B), France ($2B) and Spain ($1.4B), together comprising 45% of the total market. These countries were followed by Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Portugal and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 40%.

The countries with the highest levels of chicken egg per capita consumption in 2019 were the Netherlands (31 kg per person), Austria (17 kg per person) and Spain (16 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for chicken egg in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

Chicken egg production reached 6.4M tonnes in 2019, stabilizing at 2018 figures. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 9.2% y-o-y. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 6.6M tonnes. From 2014 to 2019, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of chicken egg production in 2019 were Germany (852K tonnes), France (845K tonnes) and Spain (841K tonnes), with a combined 39% share of total production. Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Belgium, Portugal, Hungary, Austria and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 48%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of chicken egg production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Austria, while chicken egg production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals in the EU

The total number of hens for egg production stood at 458M heads in 2019, approximately equating 2018 figures. Over the period under review, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 5.5% y-o-y. As a result, the number of producing animals attained the peak level of 461M heads. From 2011 to 2019, the growth of this number failed to regain the momentum.

Yield in the EU

The average chicken egg yield dropped slightly to 14 kg per head in 2019, approximately equating the year before. Over the period under review, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the chicken egg yield reached the peak level at 15 kg per head in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, the yield failed to regain the momentum.

Exports in the EU

In 2019, the amount of chicken eggs exported in the European Union fell modestly to 1.1M tonnes, declining by -2% against the year before. Overall, exports saw a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 2.4% year-to-year.

In value terms, chicken egg exports dropped modestly to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 17% year-to-year. The level of export peaked at $2.3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports failed to regain the momentum.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands was the largest exporting country with an export of around 396K tonnes, which accounted for 34% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Poland (214K tonnes), Germany (130K tonnes), Spain (87K tonnes) and Belgium (85K tonnes), together mixing up a 45% share of total exports. France (34K tonnes), Latvia (22K tonnes), Italy (19K tonnes), Bulgaria (18K tonnes) and the Czech Republic (18K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($743M) remains the largest chicken egg supplier in the European Union, comprising 35% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Poland ($284M), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 13% share.

In the Netherlands, chicken egg exports plunged by an average annual rate of -3.0% over the period from 2007-2019. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (+13.0% per year) and Germany (-1.6% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The chicken egg export price in the European Union stood at $1,845 per tonne in 2019, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, the export price recorded strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the export price increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export prices reached the maximum at $1,875 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($2,582 per tonne), while Latvia ($1,259 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform