The food and beverage industry has many growth drivers but also some constraints. As a non-cyclical industry, there is a constant demand for food, which helps drive some growth in the industry.  Profit margins in food production and processing, however, are becoming thinner and are facing some pressure due to the highly competitive nature of this industry. Companies are facing higher commodity price volatility, disease outbreaks and weather events, which may well affect profitability and growth.

While the U.S. food and beverage industry has fared well in comparison to worldwide industry performance during the pandemic, and insolvencies have been lower than expected, due to a surge in U.S. food production costs, companies are seeing tighter margins even as higher prices are being passed on to consumers. The U.S. food and beverage output is still forecast to grow by 1% in 2022 – much less growth than seen in the past several years, however.

The recent wave of the Omicron variant felt around the globe may affect plans for a smooth path in 2022. Many businesses, specifically those in hospitality and food service subsectors, are still struggling to absorb the shocks from the beginning of the pandemic, according to a recent food industry trends report from Atradius. The absence of tourism and travel at the height of the pandemic and new variants of COVID-19, are cause for a slow rebound to the economic recovery in that subsector.

The U.S. is currently seeing the highest food price inflation since 2008 and food prices are expected to continue to rise in 2022, at least until the supply chain issues are resolved. As government subsidies disappear, pressures will mount for the U.S. consumer.

Subsectors

-Beverages: A more positive prognosis this year, with solid growth and sufficient liquidity. Beverages have seen much innovation and product development, adding to its positive performance.

-Meat and Dairy: Remains neutral as higher operating and production costs remain high and impact profit margins.

-Food Services: This sector will be the slowest to rebound from the effects of the pandemic and is much more susceptible to future Covid-19 variants.

Trends for 2022

Food will always be a necessity and consumers enjoy cooking at home, as well as dining at restaurants. Demand will always be high in the food industry, however, it is also highly competitive. Healthy and innovative products are key for food companies and restaurants to remain competitive in this landscape.

During the pandemic, food delivery skyrocketed, and this trend will persist in 2022. Options for plant-based and health-focused alternatives continue to increase as consumers demand more choices in this area. Raw material costs and lack of skilled employees will continue to be an issue for the sector in the coming year.

The credit risk assessment remains fair over the next 12 months (for nonpayment and insolvencies). Businesses that are able to effectively pass on price increases while maintaining enough labor and production capacity to meet ongoing demand will find themselves better situated in the coming months.

Sharon Benfer is a Senior Risk Underwriter at Atradius