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Lower Supply in South America to Raise Soybean Price Forecast in 2022


Lower Supply in South America to Raise Soybean Price Forecast in 2022

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Soya Beans – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2021, the average annual soybean price soared by 43% y/y to $583 per tonne. This year, soybean prices were expected to remain relatively stable, but shortages in supply are likely to spur their growth.

Soybean prices are challenged with supply risks. According to World Bank and USDA data, the average annual soybean price (U.S Gulf Yellow Soybean #2, CIF Rotterdam) amounted to $583 per tonne in 2021, increasing by 43% compared to the previous year’s figure. Despite World Bank predicts the price to pick up 1% y/y to $588 per tonne this year, lower stocks due to poor weather in Brazil, Argentina and other countries may drive price growth.

Global soybean production is expected to reduce slightly by 0.6% y/y to 364M tonnes in 2022 due to expected lower outputs in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, China, Canada, Indonesia, Viet Nam and South Africa. Anticipated production increases in the U.S., the EU, Uruguay, India, Russia, Ukraine, and Mexico will not fully offset the drops in other countries.

Despite the harvested area in Brazil, the leading soybean producing country, expanded by 4% over the last year, drought reduced yields sharply. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to fall by 3% y/y to 134M tonnes.

Global Soybean Exports

In 2020, global soya bean exports rose significantly to 173M tonnes, picking up by 11% against 2019. In value terms, supplies soared to $64.1B (IndexBox estimates).

Brazil (83M tonnes) and the U.S. (65M tonnes) dominates the soya bean exports structure, together making up 85% of total exports. Paraguay (6.6M tonnes), Argentina (6.4M tonnes), and Canada (4.4M tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, the largest soya bean supplying countries worldwide were Brazil ($28.6B), the U.S. ($25.9B) and Argentina ($2.2B), with a combined 88% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, the U.S. (+38% y/y) recorded the highest growth rate concerning the value of exports in 2020, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform