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U.S. Wheat Prices to Fall in 2022, Global Supply to Remain Adequate

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U.S. Wheat Prices to Fall in 2022, Global Supply to Remain Adequate

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The average annual wheat price in the U.S. is forecast to drop by 2% y-o-y to $250 per tonne in 2022, falling on reduced domestic consumption coupled with stable supply worldwide. The market balance will be buoyed by production gains in Argentina and the EU that will offset decreasing output in Brazil and Paraguay.

Based on the World Bank’s and USDA data, IndexBox predicts that the average annual price for Hard red winter wheat in the U.S. will drop by 2% y-o-y to $250 per tonne in 2022. Reducing domestic consumption is the key reason for that decrease, as feed use of wheat is expected to fall due to relatively high prices compared to other grains. The EU and Ukraine are to follow the same trend.

The global wheat supply will remain stable in 2022, as boosting production in Argentina and the EU should compensate for the expected decreases in Brazil and Paraguay and lower Russia’s beginning stocks. Argentina’s production is to surpass a record 20.5M tonnes this year.

In 2022, projected global trade will decline to 204M due to reduced supplies from the U.S. and Russia. American wheat remains uncompetitive in foreign markets, while the Russian government imposes quotas on export volumes to ensure sufficient domestic supplies and stabilize domestic food prices. Rising supplies from the EU could only partially offset that drop in the world’s exports.

Global Wheat Exports in 2020

Global wheat exports were estimated at 199M tonnes in 2020, increasing by 13% compared with the previous year’s figure. In value terms, supplies rose markedly to $45.3B.

The shipments of the five major wheat exporters, namely Russia, the U.S., Canada, France and Ukraine, represented more than half of global supplies. Australia (10M tonnes) ranks next in terms of total exports with a 5.2% share, followed by Argentina (5.1%) and Germany (4.7%). The following exporters – Kazakhstan (5.4M tonnes), Poland (4.7M tonnes), Romania (4.3M tonnes), Lithuania (4M tonnes) and Bulgaria (3.2M tonnes) – together made up 11% of the total volume.

In value terms, Russia ($7.9B), the U.S. ($6.3B) and Canada ($6.3B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 45% share of global supplies. These countries were followed by France, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria, which together accounted for a further 44%.

Top Largest Wheat Importers in 2020

The purchases of the twelve significant wheat importers, namely Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, China, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Brazil, Bangladesh, Morocco and Japan, represented more than a third of the total volume. The Netherlands (4.3M tonnes) occupied a minor share of global imports.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), Indonesia ($2.6B) and Turkey ($2.3B), together accounting for 16% of international purchases. These countries were followed by China, Nigeria, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Japan, Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and the Netherlands, which together accounted for a further 34%.

Source: IndexBox Platform 

organic farming
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Site Selection, State Spotlight

U.S. States With the Most Organic Farms

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As the force that feeds and nourishes the population, agriculture is one of the most vital industries in the U.S. economy. To accommodate the country’s growth over the years, agricultural practices have evolved to become more efficient, capable of reliably meeting the population’s daily needs. But these efficient practices also come with environmental costs, and many farmers and consumers are increasingly seeking out more sustainable alternatives.

Organic farming is an approach to agriculture that attempts to mimic nature and natural processes when raising crops and livestock. Rather than using techniques of larger-scale industrial agriculture, like genetic modifications, monoculture farming, and synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, organic farmers seek to conserve biodiversity and natural resources on their farmland.

Organic products have seen a boom in demand in recent years, and there are a number of reasons why consumers might be seeking out organic products. Organic techniques appeal to environmentalist consumers who value a more sustainable approach to agriculture that promotes biodiversity, limits pollution, and increases carbon capture. For meat and dairy consumers, livestock production on organic farms is considered to be a more ethical and humane way to raise animals because they are given more access to the outdoors, better feed, and fewer hormones and antibiotics. Health-conscious consumers can point to evidence that organic products have health benefits like greater nutrient density and lower levels of toxic metals and pesticide residue than conventional agricultural products.

Whatever the reasons, organic farming has increased substantially over the last decade or so. In 2008, the U.S. had 10,903 organic farms covering around 4 million acres of farmland. In 2019, there were nearly 16,500 organic farms on 5.5 million acres. And these farms have grown alongside consumer demand: the sales of organic products have more than tripled over the same span, rising from $3.1 billion to $9.9 billion.

Within the nearly $10 billion organic food market, milk, chicken, and eggs are the top-selling products. Organic milk leads all products with sales of more than $1.5 billion per year, while chicken sees $1.1 billion in sales annually and eggs generate $887 million. Apples are the top-selling form of organic produce, with $475 million in annual sales.

While the organic farming industry has seen tremendous growth, not all farmers are adopting organic practices. Many large-scale agricultural operations in the Midwest and South have relatively low numbers of organic farms and acreage devoted to such operations. But one location where organic agriculture has taken hold deeply is California. California is home to more than 3,000 organic farms—more than twice the next-highest state—and the total acreage of organic farms in the state totals nearly 1 million acres.

California is the nation’s top state for agricultural sales overall, so it is unsurprising that the state is also the leader in organic production. In relative terms, several other states devote a greater share of their farmland to organic farming than California, where organic farms represent only about 4% of the state’s agricultural acreage. Instead, the list of top states for organic farms on a relative basis is led by northeastern states including Maine, New York, and Vermont—the runaway leader, where organic acreage accounts for nearly 17% of its total.

The data used in this analysis is from the USDA. To identify the states with the most organic farms, researchers at Commodity.com calculated the total certified organic acres operated as a percentage of total farmland in each state. In the event of a tie, the state with the greater number of organic farms as a percentage of total farms was ranked higher. Only states with available data from the USDA were included in the analysis.

Here are the states with the most organic farms.

State Rank Organic acreage as a percentage of total Organic farms as a percentage of total Total organic acreage Total organic farms Total value of organic products sold
Vermont    1   16.92% 9.63% 203,002 655 $159,742,000
New York    2   4.68% 3.96% 323,081 1,321 $298,420,000
Maine    3   4.25% 6.00% 55,261 456 $63,820,000
California    4   3.97% 4.31% 965,257 3,012 $3,596,923,000
New Hampshire    5   2.72% 1.95% 11,708 80 $11,274,000
Wisconsin    6   1.75% 2.10% 250,940 1,364 $268,921,000
Massachusetts    7   1.63% 1.85% 8,170 133 $32,895,000
Nevada    8   1.60% 1.19% 97,868 40 $66,803,000
Idaho    9   1.57% 0.98% 180,732 240 $205,968,000
Pennsylvania    10   1.47% 1.79% 107,550 944 $741,764,000
Michigan    11   1.25% 1.15% 122,253 541 $230,955,000
Oregon    12   1.24% 1.22% 196,045 455 $454,406,000
Utah    13   0.88% 0.27% 94,591 48 $26,903,000
Maryland    14   0.86% 0.97% 17,196 120 $50,080,000
Ohio    15   0.82% 1.01% 111,920 785 $116,999,000
United States    –   0.61% 0.81% 5,495,274 16,476 $9,925,911,000

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/most-organic-farms/

vegetable
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

States Producing the Most Fruits & Vegetables

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Many sectors of the economy have struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic, but one of the sectors that has faced the greatest challenges in the U.S. is also one of the most critical: agriculture.

The early days and weeks of the pandemic were difficult for many agricultural businesses as shutdowns created major disruptions for some of their primary customers. Much of the food service industry shut down overnight in March 2020, drastically scaling back one of the primary sales markets for farmers. In response, more agricultural producers shifted their focus to retail grocery and wholesalers. However, they paid a steep price in the form of lost products and new costs in labor and logistics to adapt to different distribution channels.

Since then, agriculture has faced many of the same supply chain and labor challenges currently plaguing the rest of the economy. Supply chain breakdowns have meant that farms have been struggling to obtain supplies and equipment that they need and that it has become more difficult to transport their products to customers. Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, especially in low-wage occupations, which has contributed to a shortage of pickers and other agricultural workers. Because produce is perishable, these issues have caused millions of pounds of produce to go unharvested or spoil before reaching consumers.

These disruptions pose a problem for consumers, who may have less ability to access high-quality fresh food at a low price, but also for the economy at large. Fresh produce in the form of fruits, nuts, and vegetables represents nearly a quarter of the total production value of U.S. crops. These products are also part of a larger value chain in the food industry that includes food processing plants, distributors, restaurants and other food service businesses, and grocery. This means that challenges in growing, harvesting, and supplying fresh produce creates additional struggles downstream for other closely related businesses.

These issues are also likely to affect what crops farms choose to grow and in what amounts. Because crops take time to raise, farmers essentially must make decisions in the present based on predictions about what the market might look like months in advance. With continued uncertainty, agricultural producers may prefer to shift more of their focus to crops that have higher value to improve their margins. In general, tree nuts and fruits tend to have higher production value than vegetables.

The current state of the agricultural market also underscores the importance of domestic agricultural production. In recent years, the U.S. has been importing a large share of its fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, with imports totaling more than $24 billion in 2019. But with ongoing supply chain challenges worldwide, production closer to home will be important in maintaining the supply of food.

These fruits and vegetables come from a relatively small number of states where agricultural production is highly concentrated. The leader among these states is California, which is responsible for nearly 70% of U.S. fruit and vegetable production by itself. California is joined by other Western states like Washington, Oregon, and Arizona among the leaders, along with highly agriculture-dependent states in the South and Midwest.

The data used in this analysis is from the USDA. All data shown is for the year 2019, the most recent available covering both fruits and vegetables. To identify the states producing the most fruits and vegetables, researchers at Commodity.com calculated the total production value of both fruit and nut crops as well as vegetable crops, measured in dollars. Researchers also calculated what percentage of total U.S. fruit, nut, and vegetable production is accounted for by each state. Only states with available agricultural data from the USDA were included in the study.

Here are the states producing the most fruits and vegetables.

State Rank Total fruit & vegetable production Share of U.S. total fruit & vegetable production Total fruit production Total vegetable production
California    1    $29,181,329,000    68.94%    $21,437,185,000    $7,744,144,000
Washington    2    $3,396,600,000    8.02%    $3,033,860,000    $362,740,000
Florida    3    $2,759,462,000    6.52%    $1,536,612,000    $1,222,850,000
Arizona    4    $1,825,539,000    4.31%    $197,188,000    $1,628,351,000
Georgia    5    $823,604,000    1.95%    $308,074,000    $515,530,000
Oregon    6    $650,912,000    1.54%    $456,326,000    $194,586,000
Michigan    7    $578,847,000    1.37%    $361,709,000    $217,138,000
North Carolina    8    $560,492,000    1.32%    $60,811,000    $499,681,000
New York    9    $503,842,000    1.19%    $276,937,000    $226,905,000
Texas    10    $348,246,000    0.82%    $163,350,000    $184,896,000
United States    –    $42,326,702,000    100.0%    $28,770,303,000    $13,556,399,000

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/most-fruits-vegetables/

female farmer
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States With the Most Female Farmers

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Agriculture has historically been one of the most important industries in the U.S., but the sector has become less prominent over time. Farms have become more productive thanks to improved technology, which has changed farms’ needs for labor. Simultaneously, economic opportunities in more urbanized areas have grown at a much greater rate and attracted workers away from agricultural life. As a result, the demographic profiles of U.S. farmers are changing.

Most notably, farm producers—a person who is involved in making decisions for the farm—have been getting older on average. According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, nearly one-third of the 3.4 million producers in the U.S. are 65 or older, and an additional 950,000 are aged 55 to 64. And fewer young people are taking their place, with only 284,000 producers under the age of 34.

But one area where the ranks of farmers are growing is female farmers. From 2012 to 2017, the number of female farm producers in the U.S. grew by more than 250,000, while the number of male producers declined by about 40,000 over the same span. Collectively, females today farm 388 million acres of U.S. farmland and are responsible for a total of $148 billion in agricultural sales.

As with other sectors of the economy, however, there is a difference in the earning power of farmers by sex. Female-operated farms tend to be smaller in scale and therefore earn less than their male-operated counterparts. In 2017, the most recent year for which data was available, 50% of female-operated farms earned less than $5,000 in sales and government payments, compared to 43% of male-operated farms. At the other end of the spectrum, only 19% of female-operated farms earn more than $50,000, compared to 26% of male-operated establishments.

Part of the reason for this disparity is related to historical and cultural factors. Agricultural professions have historically been seen as men’s work, so opportunities for women to lead in farm operations have been more scarce. The data bears this out: male farmers are almost three times more likely than female farmers to manage a farm on which they are the only producer. Women, on the other hand, are more likely to share management roles with others, especially other male producers.

Male and female farmers also differ in where they are located. Female farmers and female-operated farms are most common in the West and Northeast-—but these locations tend to have lower agricultural productivity. These states and counties also have a lower number of farms overall. In contrast, major farming areas including the upper Midwest and the Southeast have much lower proportions of female farms and farmers, which likely contributes to the gap in earnings as well.

The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. To determine the states with the most female farmers, researchers at Commodity.com calculated the percentage of producers that are female for each state. In the event of a tie, the state with the greater number of total female producers was ranked higher. Researchers also included statistics on the number of farms with at least one female producer and the total number of farms.

Here are the states with the most female farm producers.

State Rank Percentage of producers that are female  Total female producers Percentage of farms with at least one female producer Total farms with at least one female producer Total farms 
Arizona    1          48.7% 15,968 71.6% 13,670 19,086
Alaska    2          46.7% 802 72.2% 715 990
New Hampshire    3          45.5% 3,277 73.9% 3,048 4,123
Oregon    4          44.2% 29,868 73.4% 27,592 37,616
Maine    5          43.7% 5,859 70.1% 5,327 7,600
Massachusetts    6          43.6% 5,572 66.2% 4,793 7,241
Washington    7          42.4% 26,868 68.9% 24,663 35,793
Nevada    8          42.4% 2,524 68.2% 2,335 3,423
Colorado    9          41.8% 28,839 67.9% 26,406 38,893
Vermont    10          41.6% 5,120 68.9% 4,691 6,808
Hawaii    11          41.4% 5,044 62.5% 4,580 7,328
Rhode Island    12          41.4% 743 63.9% 666 1,043
Connecticut    13          40.9% 3,892 63.6% 3,510 5,521
Florida    14          40.7% 32,122 62.6% 29,779 47,590
Wyoming    15          40.7% 8,816 66.9% 7,990 11,938
United States    –          36.1% 1,227,461 55.8% 1,139,675 2,042,220

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/most-female-farmers/

wine
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Climate Change: The French Wine Disaster & Beyond

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Complex supply chains around the world make countries dependent on others for essential items, including food and drink. When it is interrupted, the effects are felt globally. We’ve already experienced the turmoil that disrupted supply chains can have during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire issued a statement to the nation’s supermarkets urging them to stock French products.

There are a few instances other than COVID-19 where disasters have interrupted the supply chain, causing economic damage. Agriculture tends to take the biggest financial hits and losses during disasters such as extreme weather, which are becoming more frequent, intense, and complex. Between 2008 and 2018, agricultural disasters cost developing countries more than €908 billion, having a profound effect on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who were already struggling against large corporations.


Electrix, a producer of coffret électrique encastré for the food industry, takes a look at the French wine disaster and other events around the world that had an impact on food and drink.

The wine disaster

Unseasonal frost hit France this year, seeing a usually warm April suddenly struck by freezing temperatures and bitter frost. The initial record-warm early spring resulted in vines and fruit trees blooming earlier than they would usually, and they were then ruined by an unexpected bout of cold temperatures. Research has found that as the world’s temperature rises, the timing of seasons will change and become more severe.

Vineyards in Bordeaux, Burgundy, Provence, and the Rhône Valley were affected and resorted to lighting thousands of fires and candles near the vines and trees in an attempt to keep them warm overnight. Sadly, many winemakers have reported a 100 percent loss on their yield.

French agriculture minister Julien Denormandie commented: “This is probably the greatest agricultural catastrophe of the beginning of the 21st century.” Meanwhile, Prime Minister Jean Castex pledged €1bn in aid to winemakers and farmers. It may take years for some vineyards to recover.

France’s wine industry has already been dealing with the effects of COVID-19 and decreased demand from restaurant orders, as well as previously battling with Donald Trump’s tariffs on key French goods, including wine and cheese, which resulted in a near 14 percent drop in French wine and spirits exports last year. Furthermore, due to the effects of climate change, the flavors of wine will likely change or, in some cases, disappear forever. Merlot, for example, could become a thing of the past due to the grapes used in that particular wine being less resilient to changing weather patterns.

Thirsty crops exhausting groundwater

Rice is the primary source of food for more than three billion people every day and is helping prevent the world’s food crisis from getting worse. Sadly, there is a risk of rising food insecurity for such a staple food.

India is experiencing both a water and agricultural crisis that has been developing for decades. Rice is one of the thirstiest crops that exist – farmers use 15,000 liters of water on average to grow one kilogram of paddy (rice plant). Rice is draining northern India’s Punjab of its groundwater, with the ground expected to be exhausted by 2039 and become comparable to a desert. A fifth of the world’s population lives in India, who only have four percent of global water while simultaneously being the largest user of it with 90 percent of their water used for agriculture.

India isn’t the only country struggling to grow rice due to a lack of water – countries in Southeast Asia such as China are facing the same challenge. Climate change is making extreme weather like flooding and droughts happen more regularly, making water difficult to source. Scientists are looking to develop new strains of rice that require less water and are more resilient to drought and climate change.  Plus, water technologists in New Delhi are looking to design water management techniques that use no more than 600 liters of water for one kg of paddy.

Increased breeding of rodents in Australia

Australia has faced the brunt of climate change, ranging from bushfires that devastated 27.2 million acres of land to damaged food and crops due to the largest plague of mice ever seen. Australian farmers are used to a mouse plague every ten years or so; however, with the planet warming up, they could become more regular with more mice than ever. The temperatures create the perfect breeding ground for the rodents, which then go on to destroy crops.

Farmers are even forced to burn their crops which have been infested with mice and mice urine.

A disaster-resilient future is possible if we develop sustainable agriculture. Preparing for risk management can help in reducing agriculture’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change.

______________________________________________________________________

Sources

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1381672/icode/

https://www.axios.com/french-wine-disaster-climate-change-1f86c34c-917c-4d86-b126-73f7618316a9.html

https://www.france24.com/en/20200328-france-issues-call-to-buy-french-as-coronavirus-erodes-single-market

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/apr/15/agricultural-disaster-two-billion-worth-of-french-wine-production-lost-after-cold-snaps

https://www.foodandwine.com/news/france-wine-vineyards-frost-damage-2021

https://www.foodandwine.com/news/france-wine-vineyards-frost-damage-2021

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/water-use-is-excessive-in-rice-cultivation-30352

https://apnews.com/article/india-climate-change-business-science-environment-and-nature-52a57d80d1dcb85f508cfd5f80120870

https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/a-staple-food-to-withstand-disaster/

https://theprint.in/economy/rice-the-one-grain-thats-keeping-the-worlds-food-crisis-from-getting-worse/653855/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50951043

pimenta
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Indian Pimenta Pepper Exports Hit Record $1.1B

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘India – Pimenta Pepper – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

India remains the largest pimenta pepper exporter worldwide, comprising near half of the global exports. Last year, India managed to strengthen its leading position, with pimenta pepper exports skyrocketing to over 500K tonnes, or $1.1B. China was the key importer of Indian pepper, accounting for 32% of the total volume. The average export price for pimenta pepper from India jumped by +16% y-o-y in 2020.

Pimenta Pepper Exports from India

India ranks first among the world’s largest pimenta pepper exporters. Indian supplies abroad account for 51% of global pimenta pepper exports in physical terms.

In 2020, the amount of pimenta pepper exported from India expanded rapidly to 513K tonnes, increasing by +12% on the previous year. In value terms, pimenta pepper exports skyrocketed by +29.6% y-o-y to $1.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China (163K tonnes) remains the main destination for pimenta pepper exports from India, with a 32% share of total exports. Moreover, pimenta pepper exports to China exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Bangladesh (66K tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Thailand (54K tonnes), with a 10% share.

In 2020, the volume of supplies to China increased by +8.8% y-o-y. Thailand saw the most prominent growth rate in terms of volume of purchases from India in 2020.

In value terms, China ($387M) remains the key foreign market for pimenta pepper exports from India, comprising 35% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Thailand ($122M), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by Bangladesh, with a 9.5% share.

The average pimenta pepper export price stood at $2,147 per tonne in 2020, increasing by +16% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($2,671 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Bangladesh ($1,586 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Malaysia, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

agriculture agricultural foreign
Archives, Global Trade Daily, State Spotlight

State Economies Most Dependent on Agriculture

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The past few years have been challenging ones for the agriculture industry. The threat of global climate change has continued to produce warmer temperatures and more extreme weather events that threaten crops and livestock, and this summer, the U.S. is currently experiencing serious drought in some of its key agricultural regions in California, the upper Midwest, and the Southeast. Trade policies under the Trump Administration reduced agricultural exports and incomes while raising costs on imports of key equipment and supplies. The COVID-19 pandemic brought additional uncertainty to commodity markets and has continued to disrupt the supply chains that farmers rely on to sell their products.

These recent difficulties have made it harder than ever to prosper as a farmer, particularly on smaller-scale farms. But long-term trends suggest that agriculture’s role in the economy has been shifting for much longer. What has historically been one of America’s most important industries now has a starkly diminished role in terms of job creation and GDP.

Farm employment has steadily decreased in the postwar era—as far back as the BEA’s data goes—but really for more than a century. As more of America moved out of rural areas and into denser, more economically varied communities following the Industrial Revolution and the growth of manufacturing and other industries, fewer people remained working on farms. This trend has continued in the modern era even more rapidly as agricultural processes have become more efficient and economic opportunities in other sectors have grown.

Agricultural activities have also dropped as a share of GDP in recent decades. After reaching nearly 3.5% of GDP in the early 1970s, farming today represents 0.63% of the economy. One of the reasons for this decline is that farming’s economic value has simply been outstripped by growth in other sectors.

But the downward trends in agriculture as an employer and economic engine in the U.S. should not be taken as signs that the industry is going away. By the measure of total factor productivity—essentially a ratio of agricultural inputs like land, labor, capital, and materials to outputs of crops and livestock—farms today are far more productive than they have ever been, part of a long-running trend dating back to at least the late 1940s.

One of the main factors behind this growth in productivity has been technological innovation in the agricultural sector. Improved seeds and fertilizers, pesticides and other crop protection techniques, and more efficient tools for harvesting and processing agricultural products have all contributed to increased yields and productivity. Farms have also increasingly shifted toward monoculture, producing fewer types of crops or livestock, to achieve economies of scale.

While these shifts over time have moved the U.S. away from a heritage of small, independent farmers, agriculture remains big business and a leading industry in many states. Many of the U.S.’s rural states around the Great Plains region remain highly reliant on agriculture, as their abundant land, good soil, and climate provide favorable conditions for raising crops and livestock.

To identify the states most dependent on agriculture, researchers at Commodity.com used data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to calculate the percentage of total state GDP accounted for by farms in each state. Farms include establishments engaged in crop and animal production mainly for food and fiber. Researchers also calculated the farm industry’s share of total employment, and reported that data alongside the total GDP from farming and total farm employment in each state.

Here are the state economies most dependent on agriculture.

State Rank      Farming share of GDP   Farming share of total employment   Total farming GDP  

Total farming employment
South Dakota   1 5.78% 5.07% $3,174,300,000 31,273
Nebraska   2 4.62% 4.07% $6,005,200,000 54,700
North Dakota   3 4.46% 4.85% $2,551,300,000 28,484
Iowa   4 4.30% 4.24% $8,374,200,000 88,874
Idaho   5 4.28% 3.93% $3,583,400,000 42,154
Montana   6 3.23% 4.30% $1,711,600,000 29,879
Kansas   7 2.55% 3.23% $4,501,000,000 62,910
Wyoming   8 1.66% 3.58% $671,800,000 14,781
New Mexico   9 1.28% 2.49% $1,347,600,000 28,135
Mississippi   10 1.27% 2.42% $1,478,000,000 39,132
Minnesota   11 1.27% 1.97% $4,880,500,000 75,401
Oklahoma   12 1.26% 3.27% $2,547,100,000 76,389
Wisconsin   13 1.25% 2.31% $4,358,500,000 86,560
Vermont   14 1.13% 2.11% $385,600,000 9,316
Kentucky   15 1.06% 3.21% $2,282,200,000 82,641
United States   – 0.63% 1.28% $136,080,000,000 2,601,000

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/state-economies-agriculture/

lettuce
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Robust Demand for Salad Kits and Organic Food Drives the U.S. Lettuce Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Lettuce And Chicory – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

During the pandemic, demand for lettuce in the HoReCa sector fell but was offset by growth in sales to the retail segment. The balance between supply and demand on the market was maintained due to a large lettuce harvest in 2020, an increase in imported supply, and a decline in exports. This enabled prices to remain stable. For the past five years, the share of organic lettuce on the market doubled, reaching 7% and will continue to grow. 

Key Trends and Insights

In the U.S., 2020 was the year of the harvest for leaf lettuce and Romaine lettuce. According to the USDA, production grew by 25% and 11% y-o-y, respectively, while iceberg lettuce production decreased by 8% due to hot weather conditions.

During the pandemic, demand for leaf lettuce in the HoReCa sector fell but was completely balanced out by increased sales in the retail segment. Pre-packaged lettuce was in high demand from households amid lockdowns and the related trend towards increased home cooking. Salad kits with various flavors, herbal aromas and seasonings have been strengthening as a promising trend in the food industry.

Imported lettuce also enjoyed high demand. In 2020, the amount of lettuce and chicory imported into the country rose by 3.1% y-o-y to 376K tonnes. Mexico remains the dominant supplier of lettuce to the U.S., fulfilling 91% of deliveries. Canada provides 8.5% of the total supply, and these two countries nearly cover the entire demand for imported lettuce.

For the past five years, the share of organic lettuce on the American market doubled, reaching approximately 7%. The heightened attention to healthy eating habits is to keep the increase in organic food consumption buoyant throughout the mid-term.

The average retail price for lettuce in 2020 was $0.72 per kg for non-organic and $1.08 per kg for organic. It is forecast that as of yearend 2021, the average price for non-organic lettuce will not surpass 2020 levels, while the price for organic lettuce will slightly increase due to high demand and growing popularity of organic food.

The main driver for market expansion will be due to increased consumption from the growing U.S. population. Further increases in demand for lettuce will be boosted by the HoReCa segment returning to work upon lifting COVID restrictions. Rapidly developing home food-delivery services on the backdrop of the suburb construction boom should also contribute to the market growth.

U.S. Lettuce and Chicory Production

Lettuce and chicory production in the U.S. amounted to 3.6M tonnes (IndexBox estimates) in 2020, standing approx. at the previous year. In value terms, lettuce and chicory production totaled $6B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

U.S. Lettuce and Chicory Imports

In 2020, lettuce and chicory imports amounted to $424M in 2020.

Mexico ($369M) constituted the largest supplier of lettuce and chicory to the U.S., comprising 87% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($50M), with a 12% share of total imports.

In 2020, the average lettuce and chicory import price amounted to $1,128 per tonne, with an increase of 5.6% against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,545 per tonne), while the price for Mexico stood at $1,079 per tonne.

Source: IndexBox Platform

milk market
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports, News

The U.S. Milk Production Rises on Strong Domestic and Export Demand for Processed Dairy Products

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

USDA forecasts that milk production in the U.S. will rise by 2.1% in 2021 thanks to gains in yield per cow as well as a slight increase in the number of milk cows. The average yearly price received by farmers for cow milk in 2021 is predicted to grow by 3.9% y-o-y amidst a rally in prices for animal feed. Rising consumer demand for cheese and butter continues to drive the market on the backdrop of lower demand for beverage milk. Demand in Asia for imported dairy products features as another factor boosting milk processing in the U.S.

Key Trends and Insights

According to IndexBox, in 2020, U.S. milk production increased by 1.3% y-o-y to 100M tonnes, and it is forecast to rise at the same pace for the next two years due to demand from the growing population.

The average number of milk cows in the U.S. rose from 9,337 heads in 2019 to 9,388 heads in 2020 but remains below the 2017-2018 figures. In the second half of 2021 and into 2022, farmers are expected to accelerate the pace of butchering and decrease the total head of cattle as they respond to higher costs of feed resulting from summer droughts. The expected decline in milk due to fewer cattle should be offset by increased milk production per cow.

The USDA estimates that as of year-end 2021, the average yearly farmer’s price will grow by 3.9% y-o-y to $0.43 per liter due to rallying feed prices. In 2022, the cost of milk should fall by 2.4% in comparison with 2021 to $0.42 per liter thanks to the expected increase in production but will remain higher than the 2020 figures ($0.41 per liter).

Over the last decade, the per capita milk consumption in the U.S., incl. both fresh milk of all kinds and milk used for processing, grew by 6.7% and in 2020 reached 354 kg/person, but the structure of the demand has been changing. Americans continue drinking less milk while consuming more cheese and butter. This long-term shift towards processed dairy products will drive market growth for milk in the mid-term. In Asia, imported produce is becoming highly sought after and this should expand exports of American cheese and other dairy products, while additionally driving demand for milk.

U.S. Milk Production

In 2020, approx. 118M tonnes of milk were produced in the U.S.; picking up by 1.6% compared with 2019 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 2.7% year-to-year. Milk production peaked in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, milk production expanded significantly to $127.8B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Milk production peaked at $130.4B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2020, production remained at a lower figure.

U.S. Milk Imports

For the third consecutive year, the U.S. recorded growth in purchases abroad of milk, which increased by 7.2% to 19K tonnes in 2020. Overall, imports recorded buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, milk imports dropped rapidly to $22M in 2020. Overall, imports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 24% year-to-year. As a result, imports reached a peak of $30M. from 2019 to 2020, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2020, whole fresh milk (31K tonnes) constituted the largest type of milk supplied to the U.S., with a 68% share of total imports. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk of cows (14K tonnes), twofold.

Canada (25K tonnes), Mexico (16K tonnes) and New Zealand (818 tonnes) were the main suppliers of milk imports to the U.S. In value terms, Mexico ($35M), Canada ($25M) and New Zealand ($1.9M) appeared to be the largest milk suppliers to the U.S.

In 2020, the average milk import price amounted to $1,157 per tonne, waning by -21.3% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was New Zealand ($2,270 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($997 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

weed control
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News, Uncategorized

Growing Agricultural Industry to Spur the Demand for Nonwoven Weed Control Fabric

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The growing agricultural industry has encouraged farmers to use advanced farming methods for enhancing product quality. Products like nonwoven weed fabrics are necessary for regulating the nutrient content of the soil and maintaining the growth stability of crops.

Nonwoven weeds are fabrics with high durability, elasticity, and strength. They allow air and nutrients to permeate efficiently. They also help in curbing down the maintenance costs of gardens and protects root systems from drastic temperature changes by providing insulation. These fabrics act as a barrier between soil and mulch, thus delaying weed growth.

Weed fabrics permit excellent light transmission and they also have a superior rate of moisture absorption. The protection offered by these fabrics allows plants to grow organically, i.e. without the assistance of herbicides and pesticides, thus improving the quality of the yield.

Rapid urbanization and increasing global population have escalated the demand for staple foods. So, farmers are facing a steep challenge of maximizing the yields without compromising on the farming methods.

This is where nonwoven weed fabrics come into the picture. These crop covers can be laid over seedbeds, thus creating a micro-climate scenario where humidity and heat can be controlled. This accelerates the growth of crops whilst protecting them from adverse climatic conditions.

Extensive gardening to stimulate the demand for nonwoven weed control fabrics

Gardeners use nonwoven weed control fabrics for controlling weed growth and soil erosion. Regulating weed growth is crucial because it can restrain crop growth during their flourishing season. Also, these fabrics are efficient on flat surfaces making them ideal for gardening. Increased demand for household gardening coupled with growing insistence on biodegradable products will boost the consumption of these fabrics over the forecasted timeframe.

Asia Pacific region to showcase increased usage of nonwoven weed control fabrics

Growing demand for Asian agricultural produce across the world has bolstered the utilization of these fabrics in the region. Famers from Japan and India have adopted advanced agricultural methods owing to which the quality of the yield has improved, thus justifying the demand. Also, the increasing population has also escalated the demand for food products, thus stimulating the distribution of nonwoven weed fabrics across the region.

On the other hand, North America is predicted to experience substantial growth over the forecasted timeframe with increased insistence for nurseries. Also, the rising requirement of a range of bulbs, plants, and seeds has assisted in the growing usage of these fabrics. In addition, increased disposable income has led to people investing in household nurseries and farming, thus increasing the demand for these fabrics in the region.

Many leading industry players devise strategies like partnerships, mergers & acquisitions, and product launches to solidify their position in the market. To support this statement with an instance, Plantex, a product of DuPont, is environment-friendly and lasts longer. It is ideally used for surfaces like turf, mulch and gravel. Its chemical-free nature allows the fabric to have effective control over the growth of weed.