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DRIVING CONGRESS TO ACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY TARIFFS

congress

DRIVING CONGRESS TO ACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY TARIFFS

Volkswagen GTI is turbocharged with room for…tariffs?

The Volkswagen Golf GTI is a perennial winner of Car and Driver’s 10Best award. The German-built sport hatchback combines “speed, handling, build quality, an attractive interior, and room for the family,” all for under $30,000. Car and Driver raves about the GTI’s turbocharged engine and notes it’s a formidable challenger to competing “hot hatches.”

Apparently, the U.S. Department of Commerce believes that the GTI poses another challenge — maybe a turbocharged threat to America’s national security.

In a still-confidential 2019 report, the Department reportedly found that imported autos like the GTI “threaten to impair the national security” and recommended that the president impose tariffs as high as 25 percent.

All revved up

The president would enact these tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. As TradeVistas’ Andrea Durkin has detailed, Section 232 is a little-used Cold War-era law under which Congress delegated broad authority to the president to restrict imports for national security reasons. The law is also the basis for current controversial duties on steel and aluminum.

The proposed tariffs have generated opposition from vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, economic analysts and members of Congress. The Alliance of Automotive Manufacturers notes that a 25 percent tariff on autos and parts would raise the price of an average imported car by an estimated $6,000 (and add $2,000 to a U.S.-built car) while potentially leading to the loss of over 600,000 American jobs. The Association of Global Automakers (now merged with the Auto Alliance to form the Alliance for Automotive Innovation) questions how passenger cars and light trucks are relevant to national security, suggesting that “America does not go to war in a Ford Fiesta.” Statements from Administration officials suggest that the “national security” justification for auto tariffs may be a pretext to gain negotiating leverage in other contexts.

Sourcing of US Light Vehicle Sales 2017

Congress may put the brakes on Presidential tariffs

With the possible exception of avid inventor Ben Franklin, America’s founders would be astounded by the GTI. They might be equally astonished, however, by the Trump Administration’s assertion of broad authority to impose tariffs. After fighting a revolution against “taxation without representation,” the founders believed it was vital to entrust the power to impose tariffs and other taxes to the people’s representatives. Specifically, Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution vests Congress with the “power to lay and collect taxes [and] duties.”

Since 1934, after its disastrous experience with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, Congress has increasingly delegated specific trade and tariff powers to the president, subject to a variety of limitations. Presidents have generally used these powers judiciously and to reduce tariffs to expand trade. For example, when President Kennedy signed the 1962 Trade Expansion Act (which enacted Section 232), he emphasized the importance of opening trade and reducing trade barriers and warned against “stagnating behind tariff walls.”

President Trump has taken a maximalist approach to his delegated powers to impose tariffs, particularly for “national security” reasons. In response, Congressional critics from both parties point out that under the Constitution, Congress should be the ultimate driver of tariffs, not the president.

Other concerns with the Administration’s application of national security tariffs include a lack of transparency in determining tariffs and administering tariff exclusions, its use of an overly broad definition of national security, and the cascading impacts on U.S. producers from higher metal prices. Legal experts are also concerned that the Administration did not follow the law when it imposed new tariffs on derivative steel products (including nails and bumpers) and when it extended its review of auto tariffs when time limits under Section 232 have likely expired.

Cost of Autos 232 Tariffs

Time for a trade law tune-up?

Congress could rein in presidential national security tariffs by simply repealing Section 232. However, even critics of current tariffs recognize that there are circumstances where the president might need authority to adjust trade in response to national security threats. Accordingly, Congress has focused instead on bipartisan proposals to place additional limits on the president’s ability to employ Section 232.

The Trade Security Act of 2019, introduced by Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) and Representative Ron Kind (D-WI), would bifurcate the Section 232 process. The Department of Defense (DoD) would first investigate whether there is a national security basis for restricting imports of an article. If DoD finds that an article poses a security threat and the president decides to act, the Commerce Department would then recommend tariffs or other measures to address the threat. The Portman-Kind bill would also enable Congress to disapprove any Section 232 trade restriction imposed by the president through a resolution of disapproval that would itself be subject to a veto by the president. This legislation would not impact current Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act of 2019introduced by Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI) would also require DoD to take the lead in investigating whether an article poses a national security threat, while also adopting a tighter definition of national security. Notably, under this legislation, no proposed Section 232 action by the president could take effect unless Congress first passes a resolution of approval. The Toomey-Gallagher bill would also (i) repeal current steel and aluminum duties unless Congress passes an expedited resolution of approval, (ii) direct the independent U.S. International Trade Commission to report to Congress on the economic impacts of Section 232 actions, and (iii) require that the USITC administer the tariff exclusion process for future Section 232 actions.

Two bills in Congress to brake 232

Getting out of neutral

For the past year, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has been attempting to meld the Portman and Toomey bills into a compromise measure that would attract veto-proof majorities in Congress. Despite considerable bipartisan support, Grassley notes that this effort has faced two challenges. First, there’s opposition from Republicans who see the legislation as a rebuke of President Trump. Second — as any student of U.S. trade history could have predicted —interests that benefit from new national security tariffs are now lobbying intensely to retain these tariffs. Despite this opposition, Grassley has vowed to continue efforts to enact Section 232 reform in 2020.

More potholes ahead?

Meanwhile, Volkswagen’s GTI and other imported autos will continue to face the threat of national security tariffs. And that threat won’t necessarily subside if a Democratic president takes office next year. Some Democrats have already proposed using the Trump Administration’s expansive reading of Section 232 to advance their own policy goals — particularly to address the climate crisis. Carbon-emitting autos like the GTI would be a prime target for new tariffs.

The GTI was designed for Germany’s smooth, high-speed autobahns. When it comes to U.S. national security tariffs, however, the GTI’s road ahead may continue to be full of potholes.

_________________________________________________________________

Ed Gerwin

Ed Gerwin is a lawyer, trade consultant, and President of Trade Guru LLC.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

Folding Boxboard

The EU Folding Boxboard Market Reached $9.6B

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Folding Boxboard – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the folding boxboard market in the European Union amounted to $9.6B in 2018, growing by 7.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, folding boxboard consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the market value increased by 8% year-to-year. In that year, the folding boxboard market attained its peak level of $10.7B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of the folding boxboard market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of folding boxboard consumption in 2018 were Germany (1.1M tonnes), Poland (1M tonnes) and France (1M tonnes), with a combined 40% share of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of folding boxboard consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Poland, while folding boxboard consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest folding boxboard markets in the European Union were Germany ($1.4B), Poland ($1.3B) and France ($1.3B), with a combined 41% share of the total market.

In 2018, the highest levels of folding boxboard per capita consumption was registered in Austria (63 kg per person), followed by Poland (27 kg per person), the Netherlands (21 kg per person) and Italy (17 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of folding boxboard was estimated at 15 kg per person.

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for folding boxboard in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9.8M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 12M tonnes of folding boxboard were produced in the European Union; picking up by 1.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 7.6% y-o-y. Over the period under review, folding boxboard production attained its peak figure volume in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of folding boxboard production in 2018 were Sweden (3.1M tonnes), Finland (2.8M tonnes) and Germany (1.8M tonnes), with a combined 64% share of total production. Italy, Austria, Poland and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of folding boxboard production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Poland, while folding boxboard production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of folding boxboard exported in the European Union totaled 11M tonnes, approximately equating the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. In value terms, folding boxboard exports totaled $13.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The exports of the three major exporters of folding boxboard, namely Sweden, Finland and Germany, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Italy (503K tonnes), Belgium (461K tonnes), Austria (363K tonnes), Poland (350K tonnes), France (341K tonnes), the Netherlands (319K tonnes), Spain (295K tonnes), Slovenia (233K tonnes) and the UK (214K tonnes) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Belgium, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Sweden ($3.1B), Finland ($2.8B) and Germany ($2.8B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 66% of total exports. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain, Austria, the UK and Slovenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the folding boxboard export price in the European Union amounted to $1,160 per tonne, jumping by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the folding boxboard export price, however, continues to indicate a slight reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the export price increased by 12% year-to-year. In that year, the export prices for folding boxboard reached their peak level of $1,471 per tonne. From 2012 to 2018, the growth in terms of the export prices for folding boxboard remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Poland ($1,711 per tonne), while Slovenia ($753 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovenia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

The imports totaled 7.3M tonnes in 2018, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term. In value terms, folding boxboard imports amounted to $8.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Germany (1.4M tonnes), distantly followed by the UK (768K tonnes), Italy (743K tonnes), France (678K tonnes), Poland (671K tonnes), Spain (546K tonnes), the Netherlands (541K tonnes) and Belgium (462K tonnes) represented the main importers of folding boxboard, together mixing up 79% of total imports. The Czech Republic (208K tonnes), Austria (190K tonnes), Portugal (159K tonnes) and Hungary (139K tonnes) took a little share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Poland, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.7B), the UK ($928M) and Italy ($849M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 38% share of total imports. These countries were followed by France, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 49%.

Import Prices by Country

The folding boxboard import price in the European Union stood at $1,217 per tonne in 2018, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. In general, the folding boxboard import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when the import price increased by 12% y-o-y. In that year, the import prices for folding boxboard reached their peak level of $1,458 per tonne. From 2012 to 2018, the growth in terms of the import prices for folding boxboard remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Austria ($1,416 per tonne) and Portugal ($1,407 per tonne), while the Czech Republic ($1,125 per tonne) and Belgium ($1,136 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

trade finance

Industry Advocacy Required to Enable Trade Finance Market Access and Growth

In a whitepaper released last year, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) urged the trade finance industry to work together to ensure that regulation does not hinder the availability of trade finance. Olivier Paul, Director, Finance for Development at ICC, explains how a fair regulatory environment across regions is key to the industry’s growth.

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007, regulation and compliance requirements have had the unintended consequence of negatively impacting trade finance provision. As banks adapt to ever greater compliance and regulatory requirements, they seek to minimize risk by reducing their number of correspondent banking relationships. This phenomenon, known as “de-risking”, especially affects small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in emerging markets that need financing the most.

Accessing adequate trade finance is already tough for SMEs, who often lack the collateral, documented history of past transactions and knowledge of the financial instruments available to them. This has led to a US$1.5 trillion gap between the demand and supply of trade finance – or gap – as SMEs find themselves most neglected by financiers.

In its report, Banking regulation and the campaign to mitigate the unintended consequences for trade finance, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) outlines how some post-crisis banking regulation has unintentionally led to the widening of this trade finance gap. The report argues that industry advocacy is necessary to ensure fairer treatment of trade finance, as several examples already demonstrate.

Unintended Consequences and Successful Advocacy

Despite well-meaning capital and liquidity requirements contributing to the resilience of the financial system, they have also limited banks’ ability to invest in cross-border relationships, leading to concerns relating to the treatment of trade finance instruments across regions.

For example, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced the third installment of the Basel Accords – a set of international banking regulation recommendations – in 2010. However, the BCBS does not have the authority to enforce its recommendations, leaving national – or supranational – institutions to write the recommendations into law.

What’s more, these recommendations allow significant room for interpretation, allowing each jurisdiction to adapt them accordingly. This results in inconsistencies across jurisdictions, leaving emerging market banks subject to the resulting ambiguity.

In particular, the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) for financial instruments supporting trade finance caused concern among many industry practitioners. The European Commission and Council, as well as the European Banking Authority, recommended that NSFR have a variable rate of 5%-15% depending on the maturity of the transaction. In many jurisdictions outside the European Union, however, the NSFR rate is either flat – at a maximum level of 5% – or non-existent.

This represented a clear disadvantage, and one affecting the whole market. As such, the industry-led by ICC – advocated for a fairer treatment of NSFR ratios for trade finance. This resulted in a significant reduction in the spectrum of rates which now stand at 5% for a transaction maturity of under six months, 7.5% for a transaction maturity of under a year, and 10% for maturity of over 12 months.

Early Start

To ensure the highest success rate, it is essential that discussions between industry members and regulatory authorities take place at the earliest stages of the decision-making process. With regulatory adoption and implementation processes taking up to a decade in some cases, the industry must work together with regulators and maintain a proactive approach to promoting fair regulatory treatment of trade finance.

The document outlining the finalization of the Basel III framework was published in 2017 but will only be enforced between 2022 and 2027. Action is needed today if the industry’s voice is to be heard and acted on.

Banks have already identified several areas relating to trade finance – such as the treatment of unconditionally cancellable commitments, the minimum durations to calculate risk-weighted assets and the treatment of subsidiaries in large groups – where discussion is needed. Over the next few years, banks and industry bodies will need to engage with these topics, as national regulators translate the finalization package into national legislation.

Next steps

Some 80% of international trade flows involve the recourse to a financial instrument, according to the World Trade Organization. To encourage the use of trade finance worldwide – and ensure the widest market access especially for SMEs – harmonization of regulations will be required.

Much work has already been done to promote the fair treatment of trade finance within banking regulations. However, regulations will not adapt unless all stakeholders voice their concerns. It is up to the entire industry – and ICC, as the largest and most authoritative voice in trade finance – to be at the forefront of this work.

veneer sheets

Veneer Sheets Market in Asia-Pacific To Post Solid Gains

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Veneer Sheets – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the veneer sheets market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $10.8B in 2018. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the veneer sheets market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country in Asia-Pacific

China (2.7M cubic meters) constituted the country with the largest volume of veneer sheets consumption, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, veneer sheets consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Viet Nam (1.1M cubic meters), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Indonesia (684K cubic meters), with a 8.2% share.

In China, veneer sheets consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Viet Nam (+20.9% per year) and Indonesia (+4.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest veneer sheets markets in Asia-Pacific were Viet Nam ($2.8B), China ($2.6B) and Malaysia ($1.7B), together accounting for 66% of the total market.

In 2018, the highest levels of veneer sheets per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (99 cubic meters per 1000 persons), followed by Malaysia (19 cubic meters per 1000 persons), Viet Nam (12 cubic meters per 1000 persons) and South Korea (7.39 cubic meters per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of veneer sheets was estimated at 2 cubic meters per 1000 persons.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Asia-Pacific

Driven by increasing demand for veneer sheets in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the veneer sheets production in Asia-Pacific stood at 7.4M cubic meters, standing approx. at the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, veneer sheets production reached its maximum volume at 7.8M cubic meters in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country in Asia-Pacific

China (3M cubic meters) remains the largest veneer sheets producing country in Asia-Pacific, accounting for 40% of total volume. Moreover, veneer sheets production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Viet Nam (1.1M cubic meters), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Indonesia (761K cubic meters), with a 10% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Viet Nam (+20.6% per year) and Indonesia (+5.9% per year).

Exports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, approx. 817K cubic meters of veneer sheets were exported in Asia-Pacific; going up by 12% against the previous year. The total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The volume of exports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future. In value terms, veneer sheets exports amounted to $843M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

China represented the key exporter of veneer sheets exported in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of exports accounting for 508K cubic meters, which was near 62% of total exports in 2018. Indonesia (97K cubic meters) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Myanmar (61K cubic meters) and New Zealand (54K cubic meters). All these countries together held approx. 26% share of total exports. The following exporters – Viet Nam (24K cubic meters) and Malaysia (24K cubic meters) – each recorded a 6% share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +10.0% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Indonesia (+15.8%), Myanmar (+14.0%) and Viet Nam (+10.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Indonesia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +15.8% from 2007-2018. By contrast, New Zealand (-1.5%) and Malaysia (-7.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, China ($448M) remains the largest veneer sheets supplier in Asia-Pacific, comprising 53% of total veneer sheets exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($88M), with a 10% share of total exports. It was followed by Malaysia, with a 9% share.

Export Prices by Country

The veneer sheets export price in Asia-Pacific stood at $1,032 per cubic meter in 2018, reducing by -1.7% against the previous year. Overall, the veneer sheets export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Malaysia ($3,129 per cubic meter), while New Zealand ($684 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Viet Nam, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the veneer sheets imports in Asia-Pacific totaled 1.7M cubic meters, picking up by 5.6% against the previous year. In general, veneer sheets imports continue to indicate buoyant growth. In value terms, veneer sheets imports totaled $1.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Japan (515K cubic meters) and India (351K cubic meters) represented the main importers of veneer sheets in 2018, reaching near 30% and 20% of total imports, respectively. China (227K cubic meters) held a 13% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Korea (9.4%), Taiwan, Chinese (7.2%), Malaysia (5.7%) and Viet Nam (5.1%).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by India, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($227M), Japan ($185M) and Viet Nam ($114M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together accounting for 49% of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The veneer sheets import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $619 per cubic meter in 2018, growing by 5.9% against the previous year. In general, the veneer sheets import price, however, continues to indicate a slight decrease.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Viet Nam ($1,293 per cubic meter), while Japan ($358 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

MDF

The EU MDF Market to Post Moderate But Steady Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – MDF – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the MDF market in the European Union amounted to $5.3B in 2018. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the market value increased by 12% y-o-y. In that year, the market attained its peak level and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

Poland (3.3M cubic meters) constituted the country with the largest volume of MDF consumption, accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, MDF consumption in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Italy (1.3M cubic meters), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by the UK (1.3M cubic meters), with a 11% share.

In Poland, MDF consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the period from 2013-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+7.5% per year) and the UK (+2.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest MDF markets in the European Union were Poland ($1.3B), Italy ($713M) and the UK ($657M), together accounting for 50% of the total market. France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Portugal, Austria, Sweden and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

In 2018, the highest levels of MDF per capita consumption was registered in Poland (87 cubic meters per 1000 persons), followed by Portugal (38 cubic meters per 1000 persons), Romania (29 cubic meters per 1000 persons) and Austria (28 cubic meters per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of MDF was estimated at 23 cubic meters per 1000 persons.

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for MDF in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 16M cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

The volume of MDF production totaled 13M cubic meters in 2018, remaining constant against the previous year. The total output increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 8.4% y-o-y. The volume of MDF production peaked at 13M cubic meters in 2017, leveling off in the following year.

Production by Country

Poland (3.6M cubic meters) remains the largest MDF producing country in the European Union, accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, MDF production in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Spain (1.5M cubic meters), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Germany (1.5M cubic meters), with a 11% share.

In Poland, MDF production expanded at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2013-2018. In Spain, the average annual rates stood at +6.3% per year, while in Germany, the volume of production practically mirrored its outset level of 2013.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of MDF exported in the European Union amounted to 6.5M cubic meters, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Overall, MDF exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 3.3% y-o-y. In that year, MDF exports attained their peak of 6.7M cubic meters. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of mdf exports failed to regain its momentum. In value terms, MDF exports amounted to $3.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Germany (1.5M cubic meters), distantly followed by Belgium (1,012K cubic meters), Poland (682K cubic meters), Spain (643K cubic meters), France (436K cubic meters), Austria (404K cubic meters) and Ireland (322K cubic meters) were the major exporters of MDF , together comprising 77% of total exports. Romania (261K cubic meters), Portugal (259K cubic meters), Italy (218K cubic meters), Hungary (185K cubic meters) and Slovenia (136K cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by France, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest MDF supplying countries in the European Union were Germany ($854M), Belgium ($565M) and Austria ($317M), with a combined 53% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Spain, Poland, France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Hungary and Slovenia, which together accounted for a further 39%.

Export Prices by Country

The MDF export price in the European Union stood at $503 per cubic meter in 2018, picking up by 7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices for MDF reached their maximum in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Austria ($784 per cubic meter), while Romania ($292 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 5.3M cubic meters of MDF were imported in the European Union; going up by 5.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 8.6% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. In value terms, MDF imports stood at $2.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of MDF imports in 2018 were Italy (599K cubic meters), the UK (570K cubic meters), the Netherlands (469K cubic meters), Germany (463K cubic meters), France (433K cubic meters), Poland (411K cubic meters), Belgium (335K cubic meters), Portugal (269K cubic meters), Spain (249K cubic meters), Sweden (212K cubic meters) and Romania (201K cubic meters), together acoounting for 80% of total import.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Poland, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest MDF importing markets in the European Union were the UK ($338M), Germany ($269M) and Italy ($255M), with a combined 33% share of total imports. France, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Romania and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 49%.

Import Prices by Country

The MDF import price in the European Union stood at $492 per cubic meter in 2018, rising by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the mdf import price, however, continues to indicate a slight curtailment.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the UK ($593 per cubic meter), while Poland ($320 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

plywood

Plywood Market in the Middle East is Set to Expand Robustly

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Plywood – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the plywood market in the Middle East amounted to $1.4B in 2018, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total market indicated a remarkable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of plywood consumption in 2018 were the United Arab Emirates (726K cubic meters), Saudi Arabia (648K cubic meters) and Qatar (394K cubic meters), together comprising 51% of total consumption. Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plywood consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Oman, while plywood consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plywood markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($260M), Saudi Arabia ($233M) and Israel ($215M), together comprising 50% of the total market. Turkey, Qatar, Iraq and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

The countries with the highest levels of plywood per capita consumption in 2018 were Qatar (136 cubic meters per 1000 persons), the United Arab Emirates (71 cubic meters per 1000 persons) and Israel (43 cubic meters per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for plywood in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 263K cubic meters of plywood were produced in the Middle East; surging by 2.7% against the previous year. In general, plywood production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of plywood production in 2018 were Turkey (112K cubic meters), Israel (109K cubic meters) and Lebanon (34K cubic meters), together comprising 97% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plywood production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Israel, while plywood production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 171K cubic meters of plywood were exported in the Middle East; increasing by 26% against the previous year. In general, plywood exports continue to indicate prominent growth. The volume of exports peaked at 180K cubic meters in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, plywood exports stood at $65M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The United Arab Emirates (70K cubic meters) and Saudi Arabia (59K cubic meters) were the major exporters of plywood in 2018, reaching near 41% and 35% of total exports, respectively. Turkey (25K cubic meters) held a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Palestine (5.8%). Kuwait (2,719 cubic meters) occupied a little share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kuwait, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($24M), Saudi Arabia ($18M) and Turkey ($13M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 83% of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

The plywood export price in the Middle East stood at $381 per cubic meter in 2018, declining by -4% against the previous year. Overall, the plywood export price continues to indicate a moderate contraction.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Palestine ($806 per cubic meter), while Kuwait ($223 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Palestine, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 3.3M cubic meters of plywood were imported in the Middle East; falling by -2.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, plywood imports increased by +18.9% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, plywood imports reached their peak figure at 3.4M cubic meters in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year. In value terms, plywood imports totaled $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, the United Arab Emirates (796K cubic meters) and Saudi Arabia (707K cubic meters) were the largest importers of plywood in the Middle East, together comprising 45% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Qatar (395K cubic meters), Israel (255K cubic meters), Iraq (219K cubic meters), Oman (181K cubic meters), Turkey (175K cubic meters) and Kuwait (154K cubic meters), together comprising a 41% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Oman, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plywood importing markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($272M), Saudi Arabia ($250M) and Israel ($153M), with a combined 52% share of total imports. Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, Oman and Kuwait lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Import Prices by Country

The plywood import price in the Middle East stood at $389 per cubic meter in 2018, picking up by 9% against the previous year. In general, the plywood import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the import price increased by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import prices for plywood reached their maximum at $528 per cubic meter in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Israel ($597 per cubic meter), while Qatar ($292 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

wood charcoal

Global Wood Charcoal Market Reached $24B, Buoyed By Robust Demand in Africa

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Wood Charcoal – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global wood charcoal market revenue amounted to $24.2B in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The global wood charcoal consumption peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of wood charcoal consumption in 2018 were Brazil (5.5M tonnes), Ethiopia (4.4M tonnes) and Nigeria (4.2M tonnes), together accounting for 28% of global consumption. These countries were followed by India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Tanzania, China, Thailand, Madagascar, Egypt and Zambia, which together accounted for a further 33%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of wood charcoal consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Madagascar, while wood charcoal consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wood charcoal markets worldwide were Brazil ($2.5B), Ethiopia ($2.2B) and Zambia ($2B), with a combined 27% share of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of wood charcoal per capita consumption in 2018 were Zambia (74 kg per person), Ghana (68 kg per person) and Madagascar (60 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for wood charcoal worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 62M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 52M tonnes of wood charcoal were produced worldwide; flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, wood charcoal production continues to indicate a modest increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 3.3% y-o-y.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of wood charcoal production in 2018 were Brazil (5.5M tonnes), Nigeria (4.5M tonnes) and Ethiopia (4.4M tonnes), together comprising 28% of global production. India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Tanzania, China, Madagascar, Thailand, Egypt and Zambia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of wood charcoal production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Madagascar, while wood charcoal production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports amounted to 3M tonnes in 2018, jumping by 20% against the previous year. In general, the total exports indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, wood charcoal exports stood at $1.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Indonesia (511K tonnes), distantly followed by Nigeria (280K tonnes), Myanmar (190K tonnes), Poland (185K tonnes) and Ukraine (174K tonnes) were the key exporters of wood charcoal, together comprising 45% of total exports. Namibia (126K tonnes), Viet Nam (123K tonnes), China (110K tonnes), Paraguay (106K tonnes), Cuba (102K tonnes), the Philippines (99K tonnes) and India (97K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by India, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($288M) remains the largest wood charcoal supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Poland ($120M), with a 8.7% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 6.7% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average wood charcoal export price amounted to $463 per tonne, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 13% y-o-y. The global export price peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was China ($845 per tonne), while Myanmar ($172 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, the amount of wood charcoal imported worldwide amounted to 2.8M tonnes, going up by 22% against the previous year. In general, the total imports indicated a remarkable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, wood charcoal imports totaled $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The imports of the twelve major importers of wood charcoal, namely Germany, Japan, Poland, China, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, France, the U.S., the UK, the Netherlands, South Africa and Turkey, represented more than half of total import.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Thailand, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($129M), Japan ($124M) and Saudi Arabia ($73M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together accounting for 25% of global imports.

Japan recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average wood charcoal import price amounted to $467 per tonne, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. The global import price peaked at $479 per tonne in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($601 per tonne), while Thailand ($144 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

wine

U.S. WINE INDUSTRY IS DROWNING ITS SORROWS OVER TRANSATLANTIC TRADE SPAT

Tipsy trade policy

The United States imported $6.5 billion worth of wine in 2018, equal to 17 percent of total wine imports worldwide. We like our Rioja from Spain, Bordeaux from France, and Italian Vernaccia as much as our California counterparts.

Instead of toasting, American wine importers — and the many businesses that rely on imported wine, from distributors to wine shop owners to restaurateurs — are protesting. Why? Because the administration was seriously considering raising tariffs to 100 percent on a range of imported Euro

pean products, including French, German and Spanish wine.

Imported European wines are already more expensive due to a 25 percent the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) imposed in October 2019. The wine industry is concerned that raising the tariff to 100 percent will cost thousands of jobs as the higher prices on European wines knock out a large chunk of the industry’s wholesale and consumer sales.

A drunken trade brawl

European wine is but a pawn in a decades old trade dispute. In October, the World Trade Organization (WTO) found that Airbus, a European aerospace corporation and Boeing’s big rival, had illegally received over $22 billion in state-sanctioned subsidies. The WTO authorized the United States to apply retaliatory tariffs on as much as $7.5 billion worth of European exports each year until the subsidies are removed.

Under U.S. law, the USTR must review and possibly revise (maybe increase) or “rotate” the list of products subject to tariffs after 120 days, known as “carousel retaliation,” to ensure the tariffs are causing enough pain to induce a negotiated resolution.

Even if wine were spared a tariff increase in the aircraft case, a new front has opened in this trade brawl. In July last year, France announced its Digital Services Tax, a tax of three percent on revenues generated in France by a digital company, independent of where that company was established. The tax appears targeted at American companies like Google and Facebook and was denounced by President Trump. When it became clear France had no intention of backing down, the U.S. administration threatened tariffs of up to 100 percent on popular European imports — including wine.

Value of US wine imports

Friends don’t let friends retaliate

The U.S. wine industry is getting whiplash from the prospects of cross-retaliation in this trade war. The Europeans are also awaiting a WTO verdict on their case against Boeing subsidies that could authorize tariffs on U.S. imports. One-third of total U.S. wine exports, some $469 million worth, come from California shipping wine to the European Union, making it a prime target for retaliatory tariffs. The European Union could also decide to counter with tariffs in protest of the U.S. response to France’s digital tax.

Wine tariffs will not age well

An attack on wine strikes at the hearts of many. French and Italian wines alone account for one-third of the $70-billion U.S. wine market. The very biggest wine distributors may be able to afford to absorb the cost to remain competitive, but smaller importers and distributors will have a much harder time. The higher costs are passed along to distributors, drivers, specialty retailers, supermarkets and hotels, hitting everyone from the specialist Italian wine store to the French bistro that makes its margin on alcohol sales to the forklift operator in the warehouse. Wine sales also generate local and state tax revenue, particularly in states like Mississippi and Pennsylvania where the Liquor Control Board is the main wine buyer and seller.

In January, House Small Business Committee Chair Nydia M. Velazquez (D-NY) and eight Committee Democrats sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer voicing their fears about the tariffs’ impact on small businesses in the United States. They project that even the original 25 percent tariff could cost as many as 12,000 American jobs. A 100 percent tariff could risk 78,000 American jobs.

The 106 bipartisan members of the Congressional Wine Caucus also got together in January to send their own letter to Lighthizer, urging him to leave wine out of the sanctions, emphasizing the potentially crippling effects on America’s $220 billion wine economy.

Risk to wine chain of 100% tariff

Reason to celebrate?

Last week, the USTR made a sobering decision not to raise tariffs on imported European wines as part of the carousel review.

The entire industry is breathing a small sigh of relief, even producers in California. They would be unlikely to benefit significantly from the loss of competition from European wines. Due to laws on provenance, it is literally impossible to produce Chablis or Champagne anywhere else but France, for example. And compared to numerous competitors across the world, American producers have higher labor costs and limited supplies that could not fill the giant hole in the U.S. market left by European wines. Instead it seems likely that lower-cost South African and South American wine would be the beneficiaries as the more economical switch. Tariffs are a lose-lose for the U.S. industry.

In Vino Veritas

The tariffs are not an end unto themselves. They are meant to raise the stakes and bring the parties to the negotiating table. European trade officials appear to be contemplating measures to mitigate the trade row. Officials in Washington state appear to be reviewing its tax incentives to Boeing. The United States is seeking an international resolution to the question of digital taxes and French economy minister Bruno LeMaire seems more interested to resolve the digital tax dispute with President Trump.

Meanwhile, the U.S. wine industry cannot raise a glass. They must continue to live with the consequences of the 25 percent tariff, which they say could cost as much as $1.6 billion in lost wages throughout the distribution chain.

As for American wine lovers, another terrible reality sets in. After the 25 percent tariff went into effect in November, U.S. wine imports from Europe fell by half over previous months. Over the same period, China’s imports of French wine rose 26 percent. If European winemakers can shift their export focus, they might avoid the U.S. tariff pain and grow their market share in emerging economies while U.S. wine drinkers are left to abstain or drown their sorrow over higher prices.

Let’s all hope the issue is resolved and tariffs removed long before Beaujolais Nouveau Day in November.

_______________________________________________________________

Alice Calder

Alice Calder received her MA in Applied Economics at GMU. Originally from the UK, where she received her BA in Philosophy and Political Economy from the University of Exeter, living and working internationally sparked her interest in trade issues as well as the intersection of economics and culture.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

Non-Alloy Steel

Global Non-Alloy Steel H-Sections Market is Estimated at $17.9B

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – H-Sections Of Of Non-Alloy Steel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global non-alloy steel h-sections market revenue amounted to $17.9B in 2018, rising by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports stood at 6.2M tonnes in 2018, surging by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, non-alloy steel h-sections exports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 9M tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, non-alloy steel h-sections exports amounted to $4.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, non-alloy steel h-sections exports, however, continue to indicate a drastic reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when exports increased by 31% year-to-year. The global exports peaked at $8.4B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Luxembourg (1,099K tonnes), South Korea (1,070K tonnes), Germany (805K tonnes) and Spain (665K tonnes) represented the key exporter of h-sections of of non-alloy steel exported in the world, making up 59% of total export. It was distantly followed by the U.S. (305K tonnes), committing a 4.9% share of total exports. The following exporters – Japan (230K tonnes), Thailand (229K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (212K tonnes), Italy (200K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (195K tonnes), Poland (181K tonnes) and the UK (158K tonnes) – together made up 23% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-alloy steel h-sections supplying countries worldwide were Luxembourg ($794M), South Korea ($688M) and Germany ($598M), with a combined 48% share of global exports. Spain, the U.S., Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Italy, Taiwan, Chinese, Poland and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

The United Arab Emirates experienced the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average non-alloy steel h-sections export price amounted to $699 per tonne, going up by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the non-alloy steel h-sections export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average export price increased by 37% year-to-year. In that year, the average export prices for h-sections of of non-alloy steel attained their peak level of $1,053 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for h-sections of of non-alloy steel remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the U.S. ($948 per tonne) and Germany ($743 per tonne), while South Korea ($643 per tonne) and the UK ($650 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 6.4M tonnes of h-sections of of non-alloy steel were imported worldwide; growing by 2.3% against the previous year. In general, non-alloy steel h-sections imports, however, continue to indicate a slight downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 23% year-to-year. The global imports peaked at 7.7M tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, non-alloy steel h-sections imports totaled $4.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, non-alloy steel h-sections imports, however, continue to indicate a significant shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when imports increased by 26% against the previous year. The global imports peaked at $7.6B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of non-alloy steel h-sections imports in 2018 were Canada (592K tonnes), Germany (450K tonnes), South Korea (377K tonnes), the U.S. (356K tonnes), the Netherlands (348K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (293K tonnes), Turkey (255K tonnes), the UK (253K tonnes), France (213K tonnes), Belgium (191K tonnes), Myanmar (186K tonnes) and Malaysia (160K tonnes), together accounting for 57% of total import.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Myanmar, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-alloy steel h-sections importing markets worldwide were Canada ($466M), Germany ($316M) and the Netherlands ($261M), together accounting for 24% of global imports. South Korea, China, Hong Kong SAR, the U.S., Turkey, the UK, France, Belgium, Malaysia and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Among the main importing countries, Myanmar experienced the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average non-alloy steel h-sections import price amounted to $680 per tonne, picking up by 15% against the previous year. Overall, the non-alloy steel h-sections import price, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 32% against the previous year. In that year, the average import prices for h-sections of of non-alloy steel attained their peak level of $1,078 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for h-sections of of non-alloy steel remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Canada ($788 per tonne), while Myanmar ($239 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

cements

Turkey’s Cement Additives Market Rose 3.6% to Reached $637 in 2018

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Turkey – Prepared Additives For Cements, Mortars Or Concretes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the prepared additives for cements market in Turkey amounted to $637M in 2018, growing by 3.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, prepared additives for cements consumption continues to indicate strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when the market value increased by 38% y-o-y. Prepared additives for cements consumption peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Production in Turkey

Prepared additives for cements production in Turkey stood at 1.2M tonnes in 2018, surging by 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements production continues to indicate a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 when production volume increased by 25% year-to-year. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements production reached its peak figure volume in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

In value terms, prepared additives for cements production amounted to $632M in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, prepared additives for cements production continues to indicate a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when production volume increased by 38% year-to-year. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements production attained its peak figure level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports from Turkey

In 2018, the exports of prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes from Turkey totaled 77K tonnes, going up by 20% against the previous year. In general, prepared additives for cements exports continue to indicate a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 122% year-to-year. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

In value terms, prepared additives for cements exports amounted to $35M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +10.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, prepared additives for cements exports decreased by -7.4% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when exports increased by 53% against the previous year. Exports peaked at $38M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Georgia (16K tonnes), Free Zones (12K tonnes) and Iraq (12K tonnes) were the main destinations of prepared additives for cements exports from Turkey, with a combined 52% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Free Zones, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for prepared additives for cements exported from Turkey were Iraq ($7M), Georgia ($5.6M) and Cyprus ($3M), together accounting for 44% of total exports. These countries were followed by Free Zones, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, Bulgaria, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Libya, which together accounted for a further 32%.

Iran experienced the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average prepared additives for cements export price amounted to $458 per tonne, dropping by -5.1% against the previous year. Overall, the prepared additives for cements export price continues to indicate an abrupt downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 30% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes reached their peak level of $1,021 per tonne. From 2011 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Ethiopia ($1,070 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Free Zones ($164 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Ethiopia, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Turkey

In 2018, the amount of prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes imported into Turkey amounted to 5.3K tonnes, lowering by -63.4% against the previous year. Overall, prepared additives for cements imports continue to indicate a deep reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 73% y-o-y. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements imports reached their peak figure at 20K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, prepared additives for cements imports totaled $8.8M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, prepared additives for cements imports continue to indicate a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when imports increased by 80% y-o-y. Imports peaked at $29M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

France (1.7K tonnes), Germany (1.1K tonnes) and Italy (361 tonnes) were the main suppliers of prepared additives for cements imports to Turkey, together comprising 61% of total imports. These countries were followed by Canada, Slovakia, Belgium, Russia, the UK, India, the Netherlands and Romania, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Romania (+57.9% per year), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($2.9M), Germany ($2.4M) and Italy ($796K) constituted the largest prepared additives for cements suppliers to Turkey, together comprising 69% of total imports. Canada, Slovakia, Belgium, Russia, India, the UK, Romania and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 19%.

Romania (+53.6% per year) recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average prepared additives for cements import price stood at $1,666 per tonne in 2018, surging by 50% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 50% y-o-y. In that year, the average import prices for prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes reached their peak level and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Italy ($2,203 per tonne), while the price for the Netherlands ($477 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform