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The Middle Eastern Lamb And Sheep Meat Market to Post Measured Growth

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The Middle Eastern Lamb And Sheep Meat Market to Post Measured Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Lamb And Sheep Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the lamb and sheep meat market in the Middle East amounted to $7.8B in 2019, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The level of lamb and sheep meat consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lamb and sheep meat consumption in 2019 were Turkey (371K tonnes), Iran (325K tonnes) and Syrian Arab Republic (158K tonnes), with a combined 63% share of total consumption. Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of lamb and sheep meat consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Qatar, while lamb and sheep meat consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lamb and sheep meat markets in the Middle East were Iran ($2.3B), Turkey ($2.1B) and Syrian Arab Republic ($952M), together accounting for 69% of the total market. These countries were followed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Qatar, Yemen, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman, which together accounted for a further 29%.

The countries with the highest levels of lamb and sheep meat per capita consumption in 2019 were Bahrain (16 kg per person), Qatar (13 kg per person) and Kuwait (12 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for lamb and sheep meat in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

In 2019, production of lamb and sheep meat increased by 1% to 1.2M tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 7.7% y-o-y. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lamb and sheep meat production in 2019 were Turkey (371K tonnes), Iran (320K tonnes) and Syrian Arab Republic (158K tonnes), together comprising 71% of total production. These countries were followed by Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq and Kuwait, which together accounted for a further 20%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Yemen, while lamb and sheep meat production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals in the Middle East

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for lamb and sheep meat production in the Middle East totaled 56M heads, standing approx. at 2018 figures. Overall, the producing animals recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 when the number of producing animals increased by 8.6% year-to-year. The level of producing animals peaked in 2019 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Yield in the Middle East

In 2019, the average lamb and sheep meat yield in the Middle East reduced modestly to 21 kg per head, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2009 when the yield increased by 7.6% year-to-year. The level of yield peaked at 23 kg per head in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, the yield failed to regain the momentum.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2019, purchases abroad of lamb and sheep meat increased by 2.9% to 177K tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a three-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 with an increase of 17% y-o-y. The volume of import peaked at 197K tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lamb and sheep meat imports expanded rapidly to $1.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Total imports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Imports by Country

The purchases of the three major importers of lamb and sheep meat, namely the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, represented more than half of total import. Jordan (18K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by Kuwait (9%), Oman (7.2%) and Bahrain (4.6%).

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Qatar, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lamb and sheep meat importing markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($302M), Qatar ($218M) and Saudi Arabia ($217M), with a combined 68% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the lamb and sheep meat import price in the Middle East amounted to $6,132 per tonne, surging by 2.1% against the previous year. Import price indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, lamb and sheep meat import price increased by +27.0% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 27% year-to-year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Qatar ($7,170 per tonne), while Oman ($4,104 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Jordan, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

dalgona coffee

INTO THE DALGONA COFFEE TREND? MMM, THANKS TRADE.

Whipping up a Trade Trend

The “cloud coffee” phenomenon making the rounds on Instagram and TikTok is a prime example of how ingenious people leverage global trade to bring us ideas and products we never knew we needed, but that we now love.

I’m talking about dalgona coffee, sweet caffeinated happiness in a cup. It is made of equal parts instant coffee, sugar and hot water whipped together into a beautiful froth and then spooned on top of your favorite hot or cold milk. This delightful and photogenic confection is *everywhere* on social media.

In the spirit of inquiring into the global origins of the products we love, here’s what we found out.

Dalgona’s “Honeycomb Toffee” Origins

Dalgona coffee isn’t new, but owes its new popularity to Korean actor Jung Il-woo, who demonstrated how to make it on a television show. Dalgona, however, appeals to both older and younger generations because it harkens back to a street food candy from the 1970s and 80s called ppopyi in Korean, meaning honeycomb toffee. The shortcut version of dalgona coffee is meant to be the Millennial version of ppopyi.

Thanks to K-pop culture and social media, dalgona coffee has spread worldwide. As it goes viral globally, more cultures are laying claim to its origins. Macau, in southern China, is where Jung’s clip was filmed earlier this year. The owner of Hon Kee Café in Macau had been making the drink since the early 2000s.

Culture warriors in India and Pakistan claim it as well. There the drink goes by phenti hui coffee, “hand-beaten coffee,” and “Indian cappuccino.” Proud coffee drinkers in Greece claim dalgona derives from its “frappe” (sound familiar?). A form of dalgona can be found in Libya. Coffee aficionados in Cuba use espresso instead of instant coffee.

ppopyi candy
Image credit: KIMCHIMARI, Dalgona/Ppopgi – Korean Sponge Candy Street Food

We Can’t Make Our Dalgona Without Trade

But these countries aren’t the superstars of coffee trade, nor is the United States. Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia are the world’s top producers of coffee. Coffee is mainly produced in developing countries located in the Bean Belt and exported to higher income countries (we see you Finland, top consumer of coffee in the world).

The sugar in dalgona coffee (at least outside the United States) is likely to come from one of the largest producers in the world – Brazil, India, China, Thailand or Pakistan. Both sugar and coffee involve tariffs and complicated supply chains that include giant multinational corporations and myriad smallholder farmers growing crops around the world. Yet somehow, they are both quotidian or everyday products that we don’t think deeply about when we buy them. We choose our coffees and sugars from the grocery aisles or coffee shops and move on with our lives.

So the next time you find social media inspiration for your next food craze, think about the global trade that underpins it. The world is a big place, and trade brings it right to our Instagram feeds.

Take the “dalgona coffee challenge” and find out how good trade tastes: video tutorial from Yummy:

Video thumbnail how to make dalgona coffee

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Brooke Tenison is an International Economist at the Department of Commerce. She was previously a Research Analyst at the International Monetary Fund, a Graduate Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center, and an Economic Fellow at New Markets Lab. She received her Master’s in Economics from George Mason University. Any opinions expressed are her own and are not representative of her current or former positions.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.