IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the smoked salmon market in the European Union amounted to $4.2B in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the smoked salmon market reached its maximum level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of smoked salmon consumption in 2018 were Germany (40K tonnes), the UK (22K tonnes) and France (18K tonnes), together comprising 39% of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of smoked salmon consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the UK, while smoked salmon consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($694M), Germany ($661M) and the UK ($637M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 48% share of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of smoked salmon per capita consumption in 2018 were Denmark (1,303 kg per 1000 persons), Belgium (745 kg per 1000 persons) and the Netherlands (594 kg per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in the EU

Driven by rising demand for smoked salmon in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase moderately, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 232K tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 223K tonnes of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon were produced in the European Union; approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, smoked salmon production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 7% y-o-y.

Production By Country in the EU

Poland (57K tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of smoked salmon production, comprising approx. 26% of total volume. Moreover, smoked salmon production in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the UK (23K tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Lithuania (19K tonnes), with a 8.4% share.

In Poland, smoked salmon production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+5.9% per year) and Lithuania (+8.7% per year).

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 110K tonnes of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon were exported in the European Union; surging by 6.2% against the previous year. The total exports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, smoked salmon exports reached their peak figure at 111K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum. In value terms, smoked salmon exports amounted to $2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Poland was the major exporter of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon exported in the European Union, with the volume of exports accounting for 46K tonnes, which was approx. 42% of total exports in 2018. Lithuania (17,147 tonnes) held a 16% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (12%), Denmark (7%), the Netherlands (4.8%) and the UK (4.6%). France (4,161 tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to smoked salmon exports from Poland stood at +6.5%. At the same time, Lithuania (+10.2%), the Netherlands (+9.0%), Germany (+6.0%), the UK (+1.6%) and France (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lithuania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +10.2% from 2007-2018. Denmark experienced a relatively flat trend pattern.

In value terms, Poland ($800M) remains the largest smoked salmon supplier in the European Union, comprising 41% of total smoked salmon exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Lithuania ($297M), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 13% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the smoked salmon export price in the European Union amounted to $17,657 per tonne, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 18% year-to-year. In that year, the export prices for smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon attained their peak level of $17,917 per tonne, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($19,500 per tonne) and Denmark ($18,414 per tonne), while the UK ($13,242 per tonne) and Lithuania ($17,300 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 96K tonnes of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon were imported in the European Union; remaining constant against the previous year. The total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven years. The volume of imports peaked at 100K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure. In value terms, smoked salmon imports stood at $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Germany was the largest importer of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon imported in the European Union, with the volume of imports resulting at 38K tonnes, which was near 40% of total imports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Italy (17K tonnes), France (9.5K tonnes) and Belgium (6.9K tonnes), together creating a 35% share of total imports. The following importers – the UK (4,228 tonnes), Spain (3,752 tonnes), the Netherlands (3,362 tonnes), Austria (2,826 tonnes), Denmark (2,183 tonnes), Sweden (1,724 tonnes) and Poland (1,646 tonnes) – together made up 21% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to smoked salmon imports into Germany stood at +7.0%. At the same time, Poland (+20.4%), the UK (+19.8%), Spain (+13.8%), Sweden (+8.8%), France (+7.9%), Italy (+7.5%), the Netherlands (+7.0%), Denmark (+4.9%), Belgium (+3.5%) and Austria (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($644M) constitutes the largest market for imported smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon in the European Union, comprising 39% of total smoked salmon imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Italy ($294M), with a 18% share of total imports. It was followed by France, with a 11% share.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the smoked salmon import price in the European Union amounted to $17,170 per tonne, rising by 3.3% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Austria ($21,395 per tonne), while Spain ($11,716 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform