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Five Surprising Facts About Commodity Risk Management

commodity risk management

Five Surprising Facts About Commodity Risk Management

Between a major global pandemic, intercontinental freight capacity shortages, and events that have ground supply chains to a complete halt, it’s been an active 18 months for those managing commodity risk.

We’ve learned a lot of valuable lessons during this period – many of which have helped us compile and create our new white paper exploring commodity risk management maturity. Inside, we explore what it takes to enable a mature approach to commodity risk management that helps commodity managers make proactive decisions and create value even when facing the most severe supply chain crisis events.

The paper looks in detail at the different stages organizations find themselves at along a maturity curve, exploring the characteristics of teams at each stage, and what those teams need to do if they want to push ahead along their journey to maturity. But, it also includes many other insights about the state of commodity risk management maturity today – several of which you may find surprising.

Here’s a quick look at five of the more unexpected takeaways from the paper:

#1: There is such a thing as too much commodity risk data

When organizations recognize the value of investing in their commodity risk management capabilities and start taking steps towards empowering commodity and category managers with greater insights, one of the most common mistakes they make is overwhelming their experts with an excess of charts and data.


Too much data can muddy the waters and make it harder for managers to identify valuable trends and translate data into actionable insights that drive value. For organizations at the earlier stages of the commodity risk management maturity curve, it’s often far more valuable to start small and work with more focused datasets.

#2: Mature CRM isn’t just about data and insights – it’s about culture too

While data, insight quality, insight delivery, and the processes that surround them are all very important factors in commodity risk management maturity, they aren’t the only factors that influence it.

Culture is also extremely important if an organization wants to reach the highest stage of maturity. In the most mature organizations, there’s a culture of respect and acknowledgment of the value that procurement teams can deliver through the strategic management and optimization of commodity risk.

In these teams, stakeholders from across the business take an active interest in the insights generated by and acted on by procurement teams. They understand that commodity risks are fundamentally business risks and can even represent the greatest commercial opportunities available at any given time – and that understanding is reflected in their operations.

#3: A huge number of organizations haven’t aligned intelligence and strategy

Commodity risk management maturity isn’t just about having the right data, insights, or culture either. To have the right impact on the organization, the insights generated, gathered, and used by these teams need to be tightly aligned to their strategic objectives.

No matter how strong, recent, or reliable insights are, if they don’t help the team move towards achieving their goals, or support the overall strategic goals of the business, they’re not going to deliver value.

That’s a huge stumbling point for a lot of teams. They’re actively gathering and using insights, but they’re not seeing the results they need. That’s a big indicator of a strategy that appears mature, but it actually still in the earlier stages of the maturity curve.

#4: Sophisticated AI and data science capabilities aren’t for everyone

Like any other data-driven area of modern business, AI and data science have incredibly powerful applications in commodity risk management. The right capabilities can help teams make the critical leap from reactive decision-making to proactive operations that keep the organization ahead of developing commodity market trends.

However, they’re not for everyone. These capabilities demand significant volumes of clean, structured, and actionable data, and some teams don’t have access to data of that quality. For many organizations, simple forecasting and traditional manual approaches to data analysis can be just as effective for what they’re trying to achieve at their current stage of maturity.

#5: There is no ‘one size fits all’ way to optimize commodity risk management

When you look at the latter stages of maturity, it’s easy to conclude that every organization should be striving to reach that point, using all the technology and intelligence available to enable proactive, value-driving commodity risk management.

In practice, however, that’s not really the case. The level of capabilities required to optimize commodity risk management is proportional to an organization’s risk exposure.

For example, pharmaceuticals companies – where the global supply of active ingredients is relatively isolated against major fluctuations and ingredient costs have little impact on the final market price of drugs – may only need fundamental commodity risk insights to see strong results.

On the other hand, in food processing or oil and gas, where margins are much slimmer, companies need deeper intelligence and stronger insight capabilities to see significant value from their efforts.

Master post-pandemic commodity risk management

Want to learn more about what it takes to manage commodity risk effectively and transform emerging threats into powerful opportunities for value creation?

Download your copy of our new white paper to discover which stage of maturity your organization is at today and get practical advice to advance your journey towards proactive, crisis-ready commodity risk management.

christmas

MERRY CHRISTMAS IN JULY, FROM SEKO LOGISTICS

SEKO Logistics, which began in 1976 as a single-office operation in Chicago and now has a global reputation for innovation and first-class logistics services, has a special season’s greetings for the supply-chain industry: Get your shipments in order now for the peak Christmas holiday shopping season.

The Grinch causing this disruption: COVID-19, whose “lingering effects . . . meant that the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach were hugely congested earlier this year by the surge of importing, and it’s only going to get worse before it gets better,” according to a SEKO release. 

Compared to previous years, shipments need to be booked up to eight weeks earlier than usual, according to Akhil Nair, SEKO’s VP Global Carrier Management & Ocean Strategy APAC. “The current global ocean freight supply chain is facing huge issues, none of which seem to be going away any time soon, and definitely not before Christmas,” Nair maintains.

“Based on what we are seeing, the current port-to-port lead times are being impacted by two major factors. One, origin–shippers are unable to get equipment or space to get their cargo out in time. And two, destination–the port congestion is having a severe impact on schedule reliability. This is resulting in further delays–up to 20 days on major export trades from Asia.” 

Bah, humbug!

tariffs

How Will the Biden Administration Enforce Tariffs?

It was no secret that the Trump administration had an aggressive trade policy with higher tariffs on China, tariffs on steel and aluminum products, new trade agreements, and pulling out of others. Customs duty revenue increased drastically under the Trump administration from $34.6 billion in 2017 to $74.4 billion in 2020. This major increase in revenue for the federal government has left many asking what the priorities will be for the Biden administration when it comes to U.S. trade deals.

Most experts do not expect any drastic changes in the early months of the Biden administration. Biden himself has stated that he will not make any immediate moves on tariffs with China. Some think he will stay tough on trade with China but may ease tariffs with allied countries. It is also presumed that he will make certain exceptions to the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum for imports from certain allies.

These duties and tariffs have not been popular among many importers and foreign exporters. Some of these companies have resorted to fraud to avoid paying what they owe. As a result, the federal government has renewed a commitment to take enforcement action against companies who evade duties owed on imported goods.

Customs duties are implemented in order to level the playing field for U.S. manufacturers. In addition, the money the government collects from these duties goes directly to paying for programs such as veterans’ benefits, education, and infrastructure. When companies scheme to avoid paying the proper duties, they obtain an unfair advantage in the U.S. markets and cheat the federal government and taxpayers. Many companies have found schemes to avoid duties that are easy to pull off and give them a significant advantage over competing manufacturers and importers.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is responsible for enforcing trade laws, including import compliance and revenue collection. However, CBP has limited resources and can’t possibly check every shipment for compliance. With millions of containers entering the U.S. each day, CBP tries to best allocate its resources to detect the imports at the highest risk of violation, making it easy for many fraudulent schemes to slip through the cracks. Some companies see the low risk of detection as an opportunity to save money by lying on import declarations to avoid paying higher duties.

Importers must declare the value of goods, country of origin, classification of goods, and amount of duties owed. Essentially, the process works on an honor system in which the importer is responsible for making sure the information declared is accurate. However, foreign exporters and U.S. importers have found ways to cheat the system by not accurately reporting information on their customs import declarations. Below are some of the common schemes used to avoid customs duties:

1, Undervaluing goods – Import duties are based on the value of goods as declared by the importer. By undervaluing the price of goods on declarations, importers wrongfully avoid paying the appropriate duties.

2. Misrepresenting country of origin – Shipments imported into the U.S. must be marked with the country of origin. Tariff rates vary by country of origin and certain countries are subject to anti-dumping tariffs and countervailing duties. By disguising the country of origin, importers avoid paying certain tariffs and duties. Most commonly, transshipping is a scheme used to misrepresent the country of origin. Transshipping involves shipping goods to another destination prior to reaching the final point of entry and relabeling to conceal the true country of origin.

3. Misclassifying goods – Import duties are also determined by the classification or category of goods being imported. Importers avoid paying the full amount of customs duties by falsely declaring goods under a different category that is subject to a lower duty.

Since these acts are so easily committed and concealed, customs fraud is often difficult to detect. The federal government relies heavily on whistleblowers to come forward and aid in the undercovering and prosecuting of customs violations. Insiders and competitors are typically in the best position to uncover and report customs fraud.

The False Claims Act (FCA) authorizes individuals to bring a lawsuit on behalf of the federal government and share in the monetary recovery from that lawsuit. Whistleblowers who have evidence of customs fraud may bring a lawsuit under the FCA.

Many people are concerned about reporting their employers or others for committing fraud because they fear retaliation. The FCA ensures whistleblowers are protected from retaliation, such as being fired, demoted, or denied benefits. A whistleblower attorney can help ensure these protections.

Maintaining the integrity of U.S. trade policies is critical to the nation’s economic stability and security. The revenue collected from customs duties belongs to the American people. The federal government, taxpayers, and other U.S. businesses get cheated when dishonest companies scam their way out of paying tariffs and duties. Rooting out these fraudsters is made easier when brave and honest individuals come forward to do what’s right.

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About Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller is a shareholder at Baron & Budd where he represents whistleblowers in qui tam cases. To learn more about whistleblower protections, go to www.becomeawhistleblower.com.

intermodal

UPCOMING: Intermodal Association of North America

Intermodal Association of North America EXPO is the intermodal industry’s platform for products, services, and solutions; a classroom for new skills and know-how; and an exchange for ideas and business.

Join us in Long Beach, California, September 12– 14, 2021 for three days of breakthrough thinking and real connections with intermodal executives from across the world.

From quality exhibitors to more than 700 companies including 3PLs,  global carriers and shippers, and more, the annual event is known as the connecting force behind intermodal freight.

Leaders in the industry can attest to the event, such as South Carolina Ports Authority’s president and CEO, Jim Newsome:

“It’s to have the exposure to the movers and shakers in the intermodal industry,  to learn about trends that are occurring and how one can leverage that to make their business better.”

Visit https://www.IntermodalExpo.com to learn more about the conference, advanced discount pricing and discounted registrations for new IANA members and first-time attendees.

sorghum

Global Sorghum Production is Booming Due to Strong Demand in China

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sorghum – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2021, global sorghum production will grow by 5%, boosted by growing supplies to China. Sorghum imports to the country are expected to rise by 28% compared to the previous year, driven by the increasing demand for animal feed. Prices will continue to rise in line with other cereals, following accelerated food inflation. The advantage of sorghum as a more drought-tolerant crop will allow this product to compete seriously with corn and will further stimulate market expansion.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, global sorghum production is expected to increase by 5% y-o-y to 61.2M tonnes, thanks to the expansion of cropland and expected favorable weather conditions. The largest crop gains are expected in Argentina (+30% y-o-y), where the crop area increased by 27% y-o-y, as well as in the U.S. (+14% y-o-y) and Mexico (+17%), which expanded sorghum fields by +14% y-o-yand 4% respectively.

Global sorghum exports are expected to grow by 23% y-o-y, primarily driven by China’s continued massive grain purchases for animal feed. According to USDA forecasts, imports to China will increase by 28% y-o-y by the end of 2021 due to the increased demand for animal feed.

In the context of strong demand, prices for sorghum are expected to rise alongside other rising grains. Global food inflation is accelerating due to rising demand for food and animal feed, as well as the increased ethanol and renewable fuel production. In the U.S., a leading producer country that supplies 74% of sorghum to the global export market, the season-average farm price per product increased from $103 per tonne in September 2020 to $155 per tonne in April 2021.

According to forecasts by IndexBox, the sorghum market will continue to grow during the next decade, primarily due to the growing demand for livestock feed worldwide. An increase in demand for gluten-free products in a growing population may be an additional stimulus for market development since sorghum is the main component in such products. Sorghum can compete with corn as an alternative and more drought-resistant crop, which in the context of global climate change is also becoming a stimulus for the development of the sorghum market.

Global Sorghum Production

Global sorghum production stood at 58M tonnes in 2020, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2019. In value terms, sorghum production skyrocketed to $30.5B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The countries with the highest volumes of sorghum production in 2020 were the U.S. (8.4M tonnes), Nigeria (6.5M tonnes) and Ethiopia (5.6M tonnes), together comprising 35% of global production. From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in Ethiopia, while sorghum production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Sorghum Imports

In 2020, purchases abroad of sorghum increased by 22% to 6.6M tonnes, rising for the second consecutive year after six years of decline. In value terms, sorghum imports skyrocketed to $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China dominates sorghum import structure, reaching 4.8M tonnes, which was approx. 73% of total imports in 2020. It was distantly followed by Japan (382K tonnes), making up a 5.8% share of total imports. Mexico (232K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, China ($1.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported sorghum worldwide, comprising 71% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Japan ($85M), with a 5.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 4.4% share.

In 2020, the average sorghum import price amounted to $249 per tonne, approximately mirroring the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Mexico ($313 per tonne), while Spain ($205 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

warehouse

5 KEY FACTORS TO IMPROVE WAREHOUSE WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT

The global e-commerce industry could grow up to $2.7 trillion by the end of 2021. Jobs must be filled, and warehouse operations will likely accelerate at an unprecedented pace. Yes, robotics and automation technology can improve the efficiency of the workforce, but the people working in these warehouses still represent the backbone of the industry. 

The five factors that follow are vitally important if you wish to improve your management scheme and enhance morale in the workplace. Do not be afraid to make changes—even if you manage a “well-oiled” machine. Society is changing by the second, and making progress at work requires a few changes from time to time.

Focus on Employee Engagement and Retention

Given the recent boom in demand for warehousing, attracting and retaining talent has become increasingly more difficult. What’s more, this comes down to a lot more factors than simply salary and benefits.  

The more intangible factors include recognition, personal development and opportunities. Or in other words, engagement. An emerging trend in this field is the gamification of warehouse work. Similar to fitness tracker apps, these digital platforms have goals and milestones for employees to achieve. Once achieved, they’re rewarded with both virtual recognition, such as topping a leader board or gaining badges, as well as more tangible perks such as reserved parking spaces and gift cards. 

The idea is to provide positive reinforcement to workers, so instead of doing the minimum required for their paycheck, they go the extra mile and earn lots of small perks along the way.

Aside from the more fun and inventive engagement tactics such as gamification, managers shouldn’t forget the basics. Being present on the warehouse floor for a portion of each shift pattern, and taking a bit of time to check in with staff, is still one of the best ways to build rapport. This also helps nip in the bud any issues that workers may have, before potentially becoming a bigger problem. 

Forming Strategic Partnerships with Staffing Agencies

As warehousing demands continue to increase and seasonality continues to drive peaks, forming strategic partnerships with staffing agencies is becoming more crucial. A good agency that you have a long-term and trusted relationship with can be relied upon to provide quality hires as you ramp up to manage increases in order cycles. 

The more agencies you partner with, the more you’re spreading your risk. Think about an extreme but possible staffing scenario, where order volumes spike to the near physical capacity of the facility. How many additional hires would you need to manage this? How many hires could each of the staffing agencies you partner with be able to provide within a few weeks to a few months? 

This is also where building strategic relationships with the staffing agencies you work with are crucial, so you have confidence that they’ll prioritize your needs above other operators that are also trying to staff for seasonal peaks. 

When it comes to striking the optimal balance between permanent, directly employed workers, and agency temps, the 80/20 rule is a good one to work to. This ensures that the majority of the workforce are committed permanent members of staff “in it for the long haul,” while the remaining 20 percent allows you to easily scale up or down with seasonality. 

Implement COVID-19 Screening and Security

With all warehouse operators having spent the past 12 months getting their premises COVID-19 secure, now is a great time to think about your screening regimen and any improvements you should make.

A debate you may be having right now is what the best type of screening process is for your operations, especially seeing as experts expect COVID-19 to continue having an impact on our daily lives for the whole of 2022.  

There are two broad options available here: symptom screening or virus testing. Symptom screening is the far more affordable option compared to testing and has the least impact on your employee scheduling. App-based screening platforms enable employees to self-screen for symptoms before they leave their homes for the start of each shift. This can also be supplemented by temperature checks on arrival. 

Virus testing, on the other hand, will detect asymptomatic cases and early infections, but the costs can be prohibitive for many warehouse operators. And of course, you need to plan regular testing around shift patterns and consider what the pay implications are of asking employees to report to work 30 minutes before their shift starts to receive an on-site rapid test.

It’s little surprise then that screening employees for COVID-19 symptoms is a more practical solution for many warehouse operators, who are looking for a cost-effective way to protect staff while also lowering a business’s risk of litigation and, potentially, its insurance premiums.  

Reassess Demand and Reoptimize Processes 

Demand for specific goods has shifted enormously over the past 12 months, which has had a big impact on warehouse product velocity. So, the products that were moved most frequently in the recent past may no longer be the case. Therefore, operators need to ensure they’re regularly reassessing their velocity slotting, at a much greater frequency than perhaps they were pre-pandemic, given how volatile demand has been for certain products since. 

As demand levels shift, distribution centers must become a lot more agile, quickly reassigning priority shelving and circulation flows, and relaying this information to employees as part of the process. Employees will then have an easier job on their hands hitting targets if products are being more frequently reassigned to shelving based on up-to-date movement flows.  

Invest in Enhanced Labor Management Systems

With the high demand for warehouse staff pushing up wages, especially with the likes of Amazon paying above average and inflating wages in the areas where they’re based, cost savings will become more crucial than ever throughout 2021. To this end, many operators are focusing on enhanced labor management systems (LMS) to deliver much of these savings.

With the ethos shifting from using these systems to identify underperformers, to instead uncover ways to optimize the workforce, an intelligently deployed LMS can help distribution centers to achieve more with less.

A big focus now with LMS is measuring and comparing the performance metrics across different facilities within the same organization. A few years ago, this would have been prohibitively expensive for many, but thanks to cloud computing and SaaS pay-as-you-go models, this is now easily affordable. And once you can measure something, you can improve it, such as focusing efforts on underperforming facilities.  

But of course, it’s not just at the macro level that LMS are increasingly being used to measure performance; the focus is also on the level of the employee. AI is helping managers to demand forecast in real-time better than ever before, based on pick counts and other KPIs during each shift. So, 2021 could be the year that we start to see fewer managers moving staff around on the fly and instead begin to rely on predictive modeling.    

Ultimately, the past 12 months were focused on survival and rapid-adaption for many businesses. Now we’ve made it through the tough part, it’s time to take a pause, take stock, reassess processes, and then begin optimizing for the new normal. And focusing much of that attention on workforce management improvements is a great investment for any distribution center.

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Adam Day is president & CEO of Time Rack, a time & attendance, payroll integration, and HR SaaS platform that provides warehouse time & attendance systems and HR administration services that create work-life harmony. Visit timerack.com to learn more.

nickel prices

Nickel Prices Shoot Up Due to Supply Lagging Behind Robust Demand

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Nickel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Nickel prices skyrocketed on the expectations of a shortage on the global market provoked by the increase in demand that outpaces the supply growth. The rebound in the steel industry and rising electric vehicle manufacturing drive nickel consumption. Pandemic-related lockdowns in the first half of 2020 and the related uncertainty led to a decrease in the global nickel mine output by -4% y-o-y. Despite this, refined nickel production increased by +2% y-o-y, boosted by the recovering demand from mid-2020 and the use of secondary smelting. Indonesia, the largest nickel ore producer worldwide, banned exports of the ore and thus achieved a record output of refined nickel. 

Key Trends and Insights

According to World Bank, the average nickel price in the first half of 2021 reached $17,489 per tonne, which was 27% higher than the 2020’s average price of $13,787 per tonne. Rising demand from the recovering steel industry and from emerging electric car manufacturing provokes the price rally, while the supply is expected to be insufficient in the immediate term due to a decrease in the mined output.

In the first half of 2020, global demand for nickel decreased, following the pronounced slump in steel output. From Q3 2020, it started to recover, driven by the Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel and nickel pig iron sectors. Thanks to this, global refined nickel production grew by 2% in 2020, with the use of recycled nickel enabled to offset the shortage of mined ores.

Global nickel mine output in 2020 fell from 2.6M to 2.5M tonnes of nickel content, following the pronounced slump in steel output in the first half of the year. The U.S. (+18.5%), Australia (+6.9%), Brazil (+21.6%) and Russia (+0.3%) observed an increase in nickel ore mining in 2020, while in Canada (-17%), the Dominican Republic (-17.4%), and Indonesia (-10.9%), output slumped significantly.

Indonesia, the leading global producer of nickel ore, reduced its volume of mine production from 853К to 760К tonnes, banned the export of unprocessed nickel ore and increased the refined nickel production to 636K tonnes. This should help Indonesia to emerge as the largest refined nickel producer worldwide, displacing China from the current leader’s position.

Demand from growing stainless steel production will be the main driver of the nickel market in the medium term. Another impact comes from the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle industry. New types of energy-efficient electric vehicle batteries that are being developed use a higher nickel content in the cathode, which will accelerate the consumption growth in this industry.

Global Refined Nickel Production

In 2020, production of refined nickel decreased by -0.5% to 2.6M tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, nickel production stood at $38.5B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The countries with the highest volumes of refined nickel production in 2020 were China (725K tonnes), Indonesia (636K tonnes) and Russia (236K tonnes), together comprising 61% of global production.

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of refined nickel production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Indonesia (+55.7% per year), while nickel production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Refined Nickel Imports

In 2020, global nickel imports dropped to 691K tonnes, shrinking by -9.7% on 2019 figures. In value terms, nickel imports shrank to $9.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China represented the largest importer of nickel in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 214K tonnes, which was approx. 31% of total imports in 2020. The U.S. (90K tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Germany (57K tonnes), the Netherlands (37K tonnes) and Japan (32K tonnes). All these countries together took near 31% share of total imports. The following importers – India (31K tonnes), Italy (30K tonnes), South Korea (27K tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (24K tonnes), Sweden (20K tonnes), Belgium (16K tonnes), Austria (15K tonnes) and Spain (14K tonnes) – together made up 26% of total imports.

In value terms, China ($2.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported nickel worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($1.2B), with a 13% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with an 8.1% share.

In 2020, the average nickel import price amounted to $13,651 per tonne, shrinking by -3.5% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Austria ($14,894 per tonne) and Japan ($14,825 per tonne), while China ($12,827 per tonne) and Sweden ($13,194 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

sawnwood

Prices in the American Sawnwood Market Went Through the Roof Amid Construction Boom

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Sawmill Products Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, the construction boom in the U.S. set off an unprecedented demand for sawnwood, outpacing the rate of recovery from disruptions due to Covid. With stocks depleting, product prices have skyrocketed over the previous year. From February 2021, lumber mill utilization began to fall following a softened activity in the construction sector. According to the results of the year, growth in the sawnwood market is predicted, stimulated by a continuing increase in construction.

Key Trends and Insights

The construction boom in the U.S. has driven a record demand for sawnwood in 2020. Throughout the year lumber mills were at 80-90% utilization. Sawnwood production increased by 5% y-o-y compared to 2019 and reached 71M tonnes. Lumber futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange peaked at $1,515 in May 2021, up 300% from the same period in 2020.

The maximum utilization of lumber mill capacities was suitable in January 2021 (92%), but in February it dropped to 83%, and lumber production declined due to a curtailment in demand from the construction sector. Despite the record demand for new housing, construction companies are slowing down their activity due to land shortages, rapidly growing material costs and labor shortages.

In March 2021, there was a drop in sales for single-family houses, which was caused by a shortage of ready-made houses on the market. In some areas, the situation is so tense that some buyers are applying for all free lots, which very quickly sell out. Against the background of increased demand, housing prices continue to rise, which alongside rising food prices, accelerates inflation.

The high vaccination rate in the U.S. allows to expect a gradual return to normal activities, which will support economic growth. The housing shortage will remain in the coming years, which will stimulate growth in construction and increase the demand for sawnwood. The American sawnwood market is expected to grow at an average annual CAGR of 3.4% and to reach 101M tonnes by 2030.

American Sawnwood Market Size

The U.S. sawmill product market was estimated at $28.7B in 2020, increasing by 4.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2013 to 2020.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2020, supplies from abroad of sawmill products decreased by -11.2% to 9.3M tonnes, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. In value terms, sawmill product imports totaled $5.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Canada (8.6M tonnes) was the main supplier of sawmill product to the U.S., accounting for a 92% share of total imports. It was followed by Brazil (258K tonnes), with a 2.8% share of total imports.

In value terms, Canada ($5.2B) constituted the largest supplier of sawmill product to the U.S., comprising 90% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Brazil ($128M), with a 2.2% share of total imports.

In 2020, the average sawmill product import price amounted to $626 per tonne, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Over the last seven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada ($612 per tonne), while the price for Brazil amounted to $496 per tonne. From 2013 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada.

Source: IndexBox Platform

ocean freight

KEELVAR SAYS ITS OCEAN AND AIR FREIGHT AI WILL REVOLUTIONIZE PROCUREMENT

Bots are everywhere these days. They play poker against you and help you order a pizza. They assist in getting you hotel reservations and chat with you when you contact customer service to find out why your pizza had extra onions instead of extra cheese. And now, thanks to Cork, Ireland-based Keelvar, they can all but take over a company’s ocean and air freight procurement.

There’s no question air cargo really needs help right now, given the volatility in the market. Capacity is down, way down—nearly 40 percent from China in mid-February, 20 percent over the last year as a whole. Ocean capacity has also dropped. Meanwhile, demand has been rising, due to the pandemic. Optimizing sourcing at a time when rates, transit times and carriers are changing so rapidly is challenging for even the largest firms. 

For Keelvar, there are few better times to unleash their bots.

“We’ve been helping shippers to find ways to bring the product to market faster,” says Keelvar CEO Alan Holland. “It’s automated—that’s what’s different about what we’re doing. A bot can go to work as soon as someone wants to move something, say, from Montevideo to New York. It’s always available. That’s the biggest competitive advantage.”

The bots that Keelvar and many other companies make these days are simply software that automates specialized tasks. Keelvar calls the artificial intelligence (AI) bots it makes Sourcing Automation, which it defined in a June 2018 white paper as “a new category of software that leverages intelligent systems to automate complex human reasoning that exceeds expert standards.” 

Holland likens his bots to those that entered the world of online poker a few years ago. The earliest poker bots could play the game well, but couldn’t best professional players. But as the software evolved, the AI learned how to play better. Today, even the best poker champions in the world can’t beat the latest generation of poker bots. Holland’s goal, which he articulated in the white paper, is creating software that performs sourcing work for companies better than the experts in the field.

“The sobering fact is that AI is defeating the best human experts in most tasks where the boundaries and constraints on decision making are well-defined closed systems,” states the Keelvar white paper. “It would be a mistake to assume that AI won’t be competitive in the task of strategic sourcing and then ultimately overtake humans in this role. Once the boundaries of decision making are communicated, then the game-theoretic reasoning for optimizing the mechanism for sourcing goods and services becomes just another complex but the tractable calculation for Artificial Intelligence.”

In other words, Keelvar says their bots can automate all bidder communications in sourcing: opening, feedback generation, data cleansing, closing, termination-criteria monitoring, and activation. They basically run a company’s sourcing events, though logistics officials are always free to override the bot’s preferred course of action. Sourcing events can be complex and require the labor of many employees, some with years or decades in the procurement field, but Keelvar’s sourcing automation can basically handle it all.

“This process is tedious to execute manually and the more bidders there are, the more onerous the tasks above become and also the more likely that short-cuts are taken, and mistakes are made,” states Keelvar’s white paper. “Furthermore, the slow pace in manual events leads to curtailment of the rounds of bidding and inevitable lost savings opportunities due to the frictional effect of manual operations.”

What’s more, Keelvar’s ocean freight bots can even account for the pollution emissions of cargo vessels when conducting sourcing events (a feature that will eventually be available on the company’s air cargo bots). “Humans can’t get to that level of detail to do emission-sustainable options,” Holland said.

While the ocean freight bot has been around a year or so, the air freight bot only became available in January. Keelvar says the bot can automate 90 percent of a company’s tactical sourcing processes.

“It’s a natural evolution from our first bot, the ocean freight bot,” Holland said. “There’s a finite set of airport codes, but different logic around recommendations in air freight. Bid sheets are different, and cargo tends to be weight-based, rather than container-based, which is how ocean freight works.”

For Felix Plapperer, a venture capital investor and CEO of Paua Ventures, Keelvar’s sourcing bots will “dominate” the procurement market. Not merely because the bots are inherently more efficient than manual labor, but also because they learn the sourcing job better every time they operate. 

“When a tender/auction is conducted by a bot, the number of actions is between eight and 20, depending on the complexity,” Plapperer wrote in a June 4, 2020, post on Medium on why he invested in Keelvar. “If each bot action costs less than $1, then the cost per event is roughly one or two orders of magnitude (yes, that is 10x to 100x times) cheaper than for an event operated by manual labor. Now, these cost savings only capture the value driven by process automation. As ‘mini-tenders’ are not run by sourcing experts, little to no optimization takes place (in fact, often personal relationships drive the outcome). Sourcing bots, in contrast, analytically optimize each and every event based on business priorities. Thus, they create additional value in reduced spend—every time they are at work.”

Of course, the bots aren’t replacements for a company’s procurement teams, but were designed to work alongside them. Major companies such as BMW, Novartis, Siemens and Coca Cola are already using Keelvar’s bots for their procurement.

Another of Keelvar’s recent customers, McKesson Corp., is an Irving, Texas-based healthcare and pharmaceutical company founded back in 1883. According to Keelvar’s marketing materials, McKesson was on track to save 6 percent of its global freight budget prior to the pandemic, and had already saved 6 percent the year prior, through the use of sourcing optimization products from Keelvar.

“Excel is nice, but it’s not where we need to be,” said Tad Strong, McKesson’s Vice President of Global Operations during a March 2021 webinar hosted by Procurement Leaders. “And over the next few years, we’ve some pretty big plans on making that shift into a more automated, more robust system.” 

So, what does the future hold? Holland wouldn’t comment on whether his company is developing a bot to handle ground freight logistics (though that would be a logical step for the company), but he did say the next generation of artificial intelligence bots are just on the horizon.

“This is all level four automation, but level five automation systems in the future will have more autonomy,” said Holland. “We want the bot to autonomously decide on new carriers. There’s a lot of strategy on negotiating rates. You learn by experience which strategies are best. In level five, the bot learns new strategies.”

Holland said the first of examples of his level five AI bots in ocean freight should appear in the fourth quarter of this year. 

canadian

A Founder’s Guide to Importing with Canadian Fulfillment

Since the year 2010 when it overtook the United States, it is no longer news that China has become the world’s leading nation in terms of manufacturing. The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) released data that estimated China’s contribution to global manufacturing in 2019 at a massive 28.7 percent. This has turned the attention of many ambitious entrepreneurs to the East where the most populous nation on earth presents itself as an irresistible manufacturing market.

On the other hand, the trade war between the US and China – which has seen both parties slap heavy tariffs on each other’s goods has made it economically difficult to import goods directly from China, and by extension frustrating the efforts of American businesses that are trying to explore the Chinese market.

So, how can the American entrepreneurs that want to take advantage of the booming Chinese market beat the harsh economic demands of direct importation from China? The answer is in taking Canada as a smart China-to-US route and leveraging Section 321 and Canadian Fulfillment.

What is Section 321 and how does it work?

Section 321 is one of the most common US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statutes known by ecommerce businesses. Introduced in 2019, the section authorizes low-value merchandise below the minimum of $800 to be exempted from paying custom duties or taxes.

What does Canadian fulfillment mean?

Canadian fulfillment companies are third-party companies in Canada that receive and provide warehousing and logistic services, as well as handle the shipping processes, checking in imported stock for business organizations, and helping them to deliver orders directly to their customers. Their delivery service makes sure the processing and shipping of orders to the US are carried out on the same day just as would be the case from a store in the States.

How do you take full advantage of Section 321 through Canadian fulfillment?

As mentioned above, Section 321 is a bridge for direct importation from China to the US. It is important to note, however, Section 321 alone, is not enough. There are certain conditions and best practices that could make the process tedious and difficult for business owners to ship their goods through the border. These conditions, if not complied with, may also lead to serious punishments and delays in shipment.

Here is how you as an entrepreneur that has an ecommerce business can take advantage of Canadian fulfillment, maximize the benefits of section 321 and bypass its constraints:

1. Importers are only allowed to claim Section 321 once daily. If you are going to be importing goods that are worth above the $800 value threshold (which is very likely), this means you will not be able to ship your entire goods through the US border all at once. As an entrepreneur, using the services of a Canadian fulfillment company will aid in maintaining business-to-customer and business-to-business delivery operations across the border at an economy-friendly cost, and without having to worry about the import duty and tax.

2. Apart from the daily limit, the logistic effort of receiving very large ecommerce shipments from China, shipping them to the U.S., and the cost of transporting them to your warehouse could be very overwhelming and unnecessary. E-commerce business owners have settled with using the warehousing services of Canadian fulfillment to save cost and prevent stress.

3. An entrepreneur that does not have to worry about the logistic and warehousing aspect of their business would have the opportunity of focusing on other things.

Summarily, leveraging on Section 321 through Canadian fulfillment can help entrepreneurs conveniently maximize their exploits in the Chinese market without feeling the economic heat of the trade war.