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Chilean Suppliers Thrive on the Chinese Cherry Market

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Chilean Suppliers Thrive on the Chinese Cherry Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Cherries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Chinese cherry market relies on imports, as supplies from abroad constitute 70% of total cherry consumption in China. Over the past 6 years, cherry imports into China have doubled. The country became an attractive destination for exporters, with Chilean suppliers capturing the market.

Cherry Imports into China

In 2020, cherry imports into China rose sharply to 210K tonnes, with an increase of 7.9% against 2019. In value terms, imports skyrocketed to $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Chile (195K tonnes) was the main cherry supplier to China, accounting for a 92% share of total imports. Moreover, cherry imports from Chile exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the U.S. (8.8K tonnes), more than tenfold. From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume from Chile stood at +27.4%.

In value terms, Chile ($1.5B) constituted the largest supplier to China, comprising 91% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($79M), with a 4.8% share of total imports.

The average cherry import price stood at $7,812 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 8.1% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2020, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.4%. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($8,965 per tonne), while the price for Chile totaled $7,693 per tonne.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Spain Remains the Export Leader in the Global Strawberry Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Strawberries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Due to the Covid-related restrictions, there was a 2.3% drop in strawberry exports from Spain in 2020. Despite this, Spain keeps its position as an export leader in the global strawberry market. Most Spanish strawberries are marketed in Germany, the UK, France, and other European countries.

Exports from Spain

Strawberry exports from Spain declined to 287K tonnes in 2020, which is down by -2.3% against the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2007 to 2020. Spain comprises near 33% of the global strawberry exports in physical terms.

In value terms, strawberry exports stood at $671M in 2020. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2007 to 2020. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when exports increased by 23% y-o-y. Exports peaked at $704M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2020, exports failed to regain momentum.

Germany (100K tonnes) was the main destination for strawberry exports from Spain, with a 35% share of total exports. Moreover, strawberry exports to Germany exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the UK (41K tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by France (40K tonnes), with a 14% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Germany totaled +4.8%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of export growth: the UK (+5.9% per year) and France (-4.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for strawberry exported from Spain were Germany ($220M), the UK ($116M) and France ($82M), with a combined 62% share of total exports. Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

The average strawberry export price stood at $2,339 per tonne in 2020 (IndexBox estimates), growing by 3% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average export price increased by 17% y-o-y. The export price peaked at $2,678 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2020, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were the UK ($2,859 per tonne) and Poland ($2,507 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Italy ($2,005 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,028 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Poland, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Global Chicken Egg Market Is Soaring Despite the Pandemic

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Hen Eggs – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global chicken egg market continues to expand and is forecast to reach 138M tonnes by 2030 thanks to an increase in demand, driven by population growth. During the pandemic, sales to the HoReCa sector crashed, however, this was offset by heightened demand from the retail market. With a 50% global market share, China remains the absolute leader in egg consumption. The diminishing use of preventative antibiotics within livestock emerges as a market trend. This potentially causes the safer form of medication, immunotherapy, to become an attractive sector for investments.

Key Trends and Insights

The size of the global chicken egg market continues to climb due to heightened demand from growing populations, particularly in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa. According to IndexBox, global production in 2020 surpassed 2019 levels by 2.7%, reaching 116M tonnes. Another factor strengthening consumption could be the use of eggs in the production of flu and COVID vaccines. These aspects are expected to continue impacting the demand in the midterm and heading into 2030, the global chicken egg market will reach 138M tonnes (IndexBox estimates).

In the global consumption of chicken eggs, China has a massive lead over all other countries. At 58.6M tonnes in 2020, Chinese consumption was almost 9 times higher than the US, which ranked second in production and consumption. China also is the first in the world for per capita consumption (40kg per year per person).

Demand for eggs in the HoReCa segment worldwide fell sharply during the pandemic. Producers quickly adapted to the changing conditions and diverted deliveries away from the foodservice industry and toward the retail sector to meet the rapidly growing demand from households. Another option is to offer pre-boiled and otherwise prepared eggs to those consumers who work remotely and thus cook and eat at home.

In the past few years, the use of antibiotics has been diminishing because of concerns that target bacteria will develop a resistance to them. The World Health Organization called on producers to cease using preventative medicines and strictly limit the use of specific antibiotics. Besides that, consumer behavior has changed with heightened attention to healthy eating habits, and in response, the use of antibiotics has been unwelcome. Immunotherapies are more and more often used in livestock and could potentially become a safer alternative to antibiotics. In the long-run, this trend could make immunotherapies an attractive sector for investment.

Bird infection outbreaks constitute the main hindrance for the market, as it leads to supply cuts and losses for producers. In the long-term, climate change and global warming will also negatively affect the market because warmer weather conditions decrease chickens’ egg production abilities and increase their susceptibility to disease.

Egg Production by Country

For the ninth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in the production of chicken eggs, which increased by 2.7% to 116M tonnes in 2020. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, chicken egg production stood at $291.4B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The country with the largest volume of chicken egg production was China (59M tonnes), comprising approx. 51% of total volume. Moreover, chicken egg production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the U.S. (6.8M tonnes), ninefold. India (6.1M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.3% share.

In China, chicken egg production increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012-2020. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the U.S. (+1.8% per year) and India (+5.8% per year).

Egg Exports by Country

In 2020, approx. 2M tonnes of chicken eggs were exported worldwide; approximately mirroring 2019 figures. In value terms, chicken egg exports shrank modestly to $3.5B in 2020.

In 2020, the Netherlands (409K tonnes), Turkey (281K tonnes), Poland (196K tonnes), the U.S. (145K tonnes), Germany (109K tonnes), Ukraine (107K tonnes), Spain (92K tonnes), Belgium (87K tonnes), China (75K tonnes) and Malaysia (74K tonnes) represented the major exporter of chicken eggs in the world, creating 78% of total export. The following exporters – Belarus (44K tonnes) and Russia (39K tonnes) – each amounted to a 4.1% share of total exports.

In value terms, the largest chicken egg supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($734M), the U.S. ($427M) and Turkey ($298M), with a combined 42% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Poland, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Malaysia, China, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 36%.

The average chicken egg export price stood at $1,725 per tonne in 2020, stabilizing at the previous year’s level. Over the period under review, export price indicated a pronounced expansion from 2007 to 2020: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last thirteen-year period. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($2,945 per tonne), while Belarus ($727 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Rapid Urbanization and Westernization of Diets in Asia Propel the Cheese Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Cheese – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Although cheese consumption in Asia remains lower than in Europe and the U.S., the westernization of food habits of the Asian population leads to an increase in demand, especially from young more exposed to fast-foods. The boosting online sales channel and an early shift from the lockdown in China offset the negative impact of the Covid crisis on HoReCa and retail. 

Key Trends and Insights

Cheese consumption in Asia remains low compared with Western countries because the Asian population is more disposed to suffer from lactose intolerance, and there is a lack of established cheese production and consumption culture.

The process of rapid urbanization in Asia, combined with the rise in household incomes and the increasing popularity of the Western lifestyle amongst the middle- and high-income population, promote the cheese market. The increasing consumption of pizza and other European-style fast-foods appears as a fundamental consumer trend, particularly amongst young people. Thus, the cheese market in Asia is concentrated in large cities, where the average-high income segment of the population mainly lives. For the above reasons, and due to the growing population, IndexBox expects the Asian cheese market to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% from 2020 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.4M tonnes.

Imports buoy over 40% of cheese consumption in Asia. Although an increase in the demand is forecast in the medium term, the possibility of a sharp surge in output remains limited due to the lack of pasture land to expand milk production. High costs for producing cheese in Asia could become another restraining factor. China’s cheese costs may exceed those in the UK or U.S. near twofold.

The spread of Covid-19, to a certain extent, disrupted trade chains in Asia but did not impact dramatically on the major consumption trends. In 2020, cheese imports in China, Iraq, and Korea rose significantly despite the pandemic restrictions.

China constitutes the largest producer and consumer of cheese in Asia. Still, the per capita consumption remains significantly lower than in the other Asian major cheese-consuming countries and tangibly lower than in the U.S. or Europe. This indicates a weak market saturation and a robust potential for market growth. The rising demand in China, driven by rapid urbanization and a middle-class expansion, is to continue driving the Asian cheese market.

Cheese imports by the Republic of Korea have been increasing steadily, buoyed by a sharp increase in consumer demand for packaged meals containing cheese and rising demand from the food processing industry. Moreover, tariff reductions and increased tariff-rate quotas have lowered cheese prices, boosting imports.

Developed countries, such as Japan and Israel, are set to indicate only weak market growth. Per capita cheese consumption is already high, the population is stagnating, and there are currently no prerequisites for any sharp changes in consumer preferences. In Japan, the free trade agreement with the EU entered into force in 2019, which improves the availability of European cheese against that from Australia and New Zealand. In 2020, imports into Japan slightly decreased owing to reduced consumer purchasing power, which falls disproportionately on high-priced milk products such as cheese.

In the Middle East, moderate growth of the cheese market is forecast, driven by similar trends of the gradual rise in household incomes and the penetration of a western lifestyle. A certain potential remains relevant for the markets of Syria and Iraq, should both countries recover from the instability of recent years.

Albeit not affecting the market fundamentals dramatically, the pandemic led to significant shifts in sales channels. During the HoReCa sector was hampered by the lockdown, online sales emerged rapidly. Cheese is widely used in Western-style fast-foods that could keep the take-away services in operation, which mitigated the negative effect of the pandemic. China shifted from the pandemic earlier than other countries, which also contributes to the market recovery.

Cheese Consumption by Country

In 2020, the Asian cheese market increased by 0.6% to $12.1B, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over 2012 to 2020. The most prominent growth rate was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 9% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level in 2020 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese consumption in 2020 were China (506K tonnes), Japan (377K tonnes) and Iran (316K tonnes), with a combined 41% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Myanmar, South Korea, Syrian Arab Republic, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, which accounted for a further 41%.

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of cheese consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by South Korea, while cheese consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cheese markets in Asia were China ($2.1B), Japan ($1.7B) and Israel ($1.1B), with a combined 41% share of the total market. These countries were followed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Myanmar, South Korea, Syrian Arab Republic, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, which accounted for a further 42%.

In 2020, the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption were registered in Israel (19 kg per person), followed by Azerbaijan (7 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (6.19 kg per person) and the Syrian Arab Republic (4.74 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cheese was estimated at 0.62 kg per person.

Cheese Imports by Country

In 2020, Japan (292K tonnes), distantly followed by Saudi Arabia (181K tonnes), South Korea (148K tonnes) and China (129K tonnes), represented the largest importers of cheese, together committing 61% of total imports. The United Arab Emirates (52K tonnes), the Philippines (41K tonnes), Malaysia (35K tonnes), Kazakhstan (34K tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (34K tonnes), Kuwait (29K tonnes), Indonesia (27K tonnes), Jordan (25K tonnes) and Yemen (20K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of purchases amongst the key importing countries was attained by China, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($1.3B), Saudi Arabia ($683M) and South Korea ($629M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, with a combined 49% share of total imports. China, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Taiwan (Chinese), Kuwait, the Philippines, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Jordan and Yemen lagged somewhat behind, accounting for 34% (IndexBox estimates).

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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American Pork Exports See Record Growth Due to Surging Demand in Asia-Pacific

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Pork (Meat Of Swine) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Over the previous year, the U.S. has seen pork exports hit record highs, largely due to unprecedented demand from China and the Philippines, where livestock numbers have fallen dramatically after the outbreaks of African swine fever. The U.S. is forecast to achieve a 5% growth in pork production in 2021 and exports are projected to remain high, driven by robust both domestic and foreign demand.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, American pork exports reached a record 2.4M tonnes (IndexBox estimates), an increase of 26% against the previous year. The key foreign markets for American for pork include China (733K tonnes), Japan (350K tonnes) and Mexico (571K tonnes), together accounting for 70% of exports.

Pork supplies from the U.S. to China increased more than twofold in 2020. Following an outbreak of African swine fever in 2018, China’s pig livestock population decreased by 27%. It forced the country to offset these losses with ongoing meat supplies from abroad. The Philippines and Vietnam were also similarly affected by the spread of swine fever, and American pork exports to both countries surged in 2020. The reduction in import tariffs for American products under the current trading agreement between the U.S. and Japan have triggered a 10% increase in pork exports to this country.

Exports to Mexico, however, declined in 2020 due to a fall in the peso exchange rate and a slump in the country’s consumer purchasing power. Export supplies to Columbia emerged on a downward trend following the introduction of Covid restrictions.

A decline in American pork exports to China is projected in the near term, as China’s livestock numbers start to recover. Exports to Mexico, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam are forecast to increase, thereby securing promising prospects for American pork suppliers in 2021. According to the USDA forecasts, pork production is set to increase by 5% this year, driven by strong domestic demand and the above-mentioned export opportunities.

Pork Production in the U.S.

In 2020, pork production increased by 1.9% to 13M tonnes, rising for the sixth year in a row. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations observed in certain years. Over the period under review, production hit record highs in 2020 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, pork production reached $32.7B in 2020. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014, increasing 9.2% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $34.2B. From 2015 to 2020, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Pork Exports by Country

In value terms, pork exports surged to $6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2020; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growing in the immediate term.

China (733K tonnes), Mexico (571K tonnes) and Japan (350K tonnes) were the main destinations of pork exports from the U.S., with a combined 70% share of total exports. These countries were followed by South Korea, Canada, Australia, Colombia, Chile and the Dominican Republic, which accounted for a further 21%.

In value terms, the largest markets for pork exported from the U.S. were China ($1.6B), Japan ($1.5B) and Mexico ($922M), together comprising 68% of total exports.

China saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average pork export price stood at $2,545 per tonne in 2020, equating to the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a slight downturn. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Japan ($4,291 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Mexico ($1,614 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Rising Demand Drives Global Sunflower Oil Market Despite the Ongoing Price Rally

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sunflower-Seed And Safflower Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Over the past year, the prices for sunflower oil have doubled, driven by robust demand and depleting sunflower seed stocks. The dry weather conditions negatively affected the sunflower crop yield in 2020, but the market is now seeing a sturdy recovery. The production of sunflower oil is forecast to increase in 2021 due to strong demand that promotes investments in the expansion of harvested areas.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, the adverse weather conditions caused global sunflower production to fall by 9% against 2019. This led to the rapid depletion of global stocks and the subsequent rise in prices for sunflower seeds and oil. The average price for sunflower oil in 2020 stood at $795 per tonne (EU FOB NW Euro); in the first six months of 2021, prices reached $1,321 per tonne.

Despite prices rising at an exorbitant rate, the demand for sunflower oil is set to remain stable, supported by the growing consumption of food oil and biofuels. Should the HoReCa and tourism sectors resume full operation, a further increase in demand is expected in the medium term.

The competing oils available on the market are also seeing a similar record rise in prices. The cost of soybean oil increased from $785 / tonne (Dutch FOB; Ex-Mill) to $1,112 / tonne, and palm oil from $645 to $955 / tonne (Malaysia FOB; RBD) over the same period. This means that sunflower oil follows the global trend of accelerating food inflation and should hold its position among competing oils in the global market.

In 2021, global exports of sunflower oil are forecast to increase by 14% y-o-y, reaching 12.6М tonnes. The EU, China, India, Iraq and Turkey feature among the most attractive destinations for export due to rising food demand from expanding middle class and urban population. Imports of sunflower oil to India may increase by 250К tonnes, to 2.5М tonnes, while imports to Turkey may see an increase of 850К tonnes.

This year, the global sunflower oil output is forecast to increase by 4% to 39М tonnes, spurred by a record acreage expansion and the anticipated favourable weather outlook. New areas of land for sunflower crop cultivation in Russia, Ukraine, the EU, Argentina, Turkey and Moldova should trigger the further growth of sunflower seed production. In the U.S. and China, sunflower oil production is forecast to decline due to a reduction in areas under sunflower against rising plantations of soybeans.

Sunflower Oil Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of sunflower-seed and safflower oil consumption in 2020 were Russia (3.6M tonnes), India (2.6M tonnes) and China (2.4M tonnes), together comprising 37% of global consumption. Turkey, Argentina, Spain, Ukraine, Iran, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 34%.

In value terms, the largest sunflower-seed and safflower oil markets worldwide were Russia ($3.1B), India ($2.2B) and Turkey ($2B), together comprising 33% of the global market. China, Argentina, Spain, Ukraine, Italy, France, Iran, South Africa, Belgium and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, comprising a further 35% (IndexBox estimates).

The countries with the highest levels of sunflower-seed and safflower oil per capita consumption in 2020 were Belgium (39 kg per person), the Netherlands (26 kg per person) and Russia (25 kg per person).

Global Sunflower-Seed and Safflower Oil Exports

In 2020, approx. 11M tonnes of sunflower-seed and safflower oil were exported worldwide, falling by -17.3% compared with 2019. In value terms, sunflower-seed and safflower oil exports shrank to $10B in 2020.

Ukraine represented the major exporting country with an export of about 5.1M tonnes, which finished at 46% of total exports. Russia (1,568K tonnes) held a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (6.7%) and Hungary (4.7%). France (370K tonnes), Bulgaria (334K tonnes), Argentina (317K tonnes), Spain (221K tonnes), Germany (195K tonnes) and Romania (191K tonnes) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from Ukraine increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2012 to 2020. At the same time, Bulgaria (+15.7%), Spain (+8.9%), the Netherlands (+7.4%), Russia (+6.3%), Romania (+3.8%), Germany (+3.4%) and Hungary (+3.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, France (-2.3%) and Argentina (-8.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Ukraine ($4.3B) remains the largest sunflower-seed and safflower oil supplier worldwide, comprising 43% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Russia ($1.3B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 7.2% share.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Soybean Production in the U.S. and Brazil to Expand Robustly Driven by Rising Demand from China

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Soya Beans – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The currently increasing demand for soybeans in biofuel production, animal feed and food products outpaced production growth, resulting in a significant hike in soya prices. Together with expectations of further price growth, it contributes to rising costs of many downstream products and accelerates food inflation. In China,  rebuilding pig herds after swine fever outbreaks emerges as a new driver for the global market. Those factors highlight soybeans as an attractive commodity to invest in, leading to robust expansion of crop acreage in the U.S. and Brazil. 

Key Trends and Insights

Global soybean consumption increased steadily over 2020-2021, while soybean stocks worldwide have seen rapid depletion. The escalating demand in China, which accounts for 60% of the growth in the soybean trade worldwide, is currently the key driving force of the global soybean market. China is significantly rebuilding its livestock population following outbreaks of African swine fever, and the demand for soybean has surged, as soya is a key additive ingredient to livestock feed.

The expected recovery in demand for biofuel as the global economy emerges from the pandemic also shapes further expansion of the raw soybean market. The high soybean prices may yet curb the biofuel market’s growth rate, removing the soybean fuel as a viable competitor in terms of conventional types of fuel.

The fear that the demand for soybeans will soon exceed supply, combined with the rising production costs, contributes to prices increases. The average soybean price (Rotterdam CIF, US origin) in 2020 stood at $380 per tonne; then, in the first half of 2021, prices soared to $544 per tonne. This hike should lead to higher prices for meat, animal feed and biofuel.

The high prices for animal proteins are further enhancing the development of the market for alternative soybean foods. In 2020, global investment into the alternative protein industry saw a twofold increase against the previous year. China is forecast to record the most significant rise in the consumption of soybean meal in animal feed, and soybean-derived protein concentrates for general food products.

The promising outlook for the soybean market is attracting investment in a bid to expand potential crop acreage. In 2021, global soybean production is set to increase by 23М tonnes to reach 386М tonnes due to the increase in the land being harnessed for crop production in the U.S. and South America, particularly Brazil. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% from 2020 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 489M tonnes by the end of 2030 (IndexBox estimates).

Soybean Consumption by Country

The global soybean market value fell slightly to $150.9B in 2020, stabilizing at the previous year’s level. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

China (132M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of soybean consumption, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, soybean consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Argentina (48M tonnes), threefold. Brazil (46M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 13% share.

In China, soybean consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.8% over 2012-2020. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Argentina (+4.4% per year) and Brazil (+4.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($54B) led the market alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Argentina ($19.9B). It was followed by Brazil.

In 2020, the highest levels of soybean per capita consumption were registered in Argentina (1,059 kg per person), followed by Brazil (214 kg per person), the U.S. (105 kg per person) and China (90 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption was estimated at 45 kg per person.

Soybean Exports by Country

Brazil (75M tonnes) and the U.S. (65M tonnes) prevails in soybean exports, together constituting 85% of the total volume. It was distantly followed by Argentina (7.7M tonnes), making up a 4.7% share of total exports. The following exporters – Paraguay (5M tonnes) and Canada (4.4M tonnes) – each finished a 5.8% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of shipments amongst the key exporting countries was attained by Brazil, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($29B), the U.S. ($25.9B) and Argentina ($3.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, together accounting for 90% of global exports.

The average soybean export price stood at $395 per tonne in 2020, approximately mirroring the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2020, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Canada ($437 per tonne) and Argentina ($407 per tonne), while Paraguay ($323 per tonne) and Brazil ($387 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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U.S. Beef Market Will Face Rising Prices Due to Expected Livestock Curbs

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Beef (Cattle Meat) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Despite prices remaining consistent in the first half of 2021, an increase is expected in the immediate term. The projected 2% fall in the American cattle population by 2022 threatens to increase beef prices by near 5%. Investment into the alternative protein sector has dramatically increased; and the emerging food inflation mitigates income growth from counter-covid support measures, which may hamper the beef market growth. 

Key Trends and Insights

In the first half of 2021, prices remained unchanged against the end of 2020. Previously, beef prices in the U.S. surged on average by 10-14% in May 2020 when the first outbreak of the pandemic was recorded. They remained high until June and then fell slightly in August, stabilizing at around $4 to $9.3 per pound, depending on the type of beef, through to the end of the year.

Beef production is set to fall by 2% in 2021, owing to the decline in the cattle population. The dry weather conditions have led to the depletion of grazing land and the increased cost of animal feed; farmers are now being forced to quicken cattle slaughter and curb the number of livestock. Against a sustained demand for beef, these factors may cause meat prices to rise by 5% on average in 2022.

Rising soybean prices could also accelerate the costs of cattle meals. Expectations of further price increases accelerate not only the price for beef but the overall food inflation in the U.S. Should the inflation not be curbed by monetary authorities, it is to offset the positive impact of the government support measures on income growth and hamper consumer spending, which will spill over to the beef market.

A significant volume of beef and lamb imports are sent to the U.S. from Canada, Australia and Mexico. Canada is also experiencing a fall in the number of head of cattle, while the Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment is forecasting an increase in the cattle population over 2021-2022, which is to propel exports and mitigate the beef price growth. These factors should consolidate Australia’s position on the American beef market.

The alternative protein market is currently seeing robust expansion. Investment into this sector in 2020 trebled, reaching $3.1В. This may also constrain the growth of the American beef market, particularly taking into account rising prices.

The growing population and the established culture of beef consumption remain key drivers behind beef consumption in the U.S. Despite the above-mentioned risks, the American beef market is forecast to expand gradually to 13.5M tonnes by 2030 (IndexBox estimates).

U.S. Beef Production

In 2020, beef production increased by 0.3% to 12M tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after four years of decline. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent growth rate was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 3.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, beef production dropped slightly to $86.1B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with noticeable fluctuations observed throughout the analyzed period.

U.S. Beef Imports

In 2020, supplies from abroad of cattle meat increased by 9.6% to 1.1M tonnes, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. In value terms, beef imports rose sharply to $6.4B in 2020.

Canada (282K tonnes), Mexico (239K tonnes) and Australia (219K tonnes) were the main suppliers of beef imports to the U.S., together comprising 69% of total imports. New Zealand, Nicaragua, Uruguay and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 27%.

In value terms, the largest beef suppliers to the U.S. were Canada ($1.7B), Australia ($1.5B) and Mexico ($1.4B), with a combined 71% share of total imports. These countries were followed by New Zealand, Nicaragua, Uruguay and Argentina, which together accounted for a further 25%.

In 2020, the average beef import price amounted to $5,996 per tonne, increasing by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the last eight years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014, an increase of 15% year-to-year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the highest prices were recorded for prices from Australia ($6,912 per tonne) and Uruguay ($6,480 per tonne), while the price for Nicaragua ($4,952 per tonne) and Argentina ($5,340 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

American Vegetable Market Continues to Struggle with Pandemic-Related Disbalances

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Vegetable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Fresh vegetable consumer prices in the U.S. increased somewhat noticeably in Q1 2021 but then decelerated in Q2, relaxing slightly against the ongoing food price rally. Owing to the spate of lockdowns and the restructuring of the supply chain, production growth has failed to keep pace with the robust demand spurred by the counter-pandemic financial support measures. Rising production costs and increasing demand for biofuel-oriented oil crops also contribute to tangible food inflation.

According to the USDA data, the average fresh vegetable consumer prices over Q1 2021 exceeded the prices of Q1 2020 by 1.3%, relaxing slightly to a +0.6% surplus in Q2 against the same period of the previous year.

Rising food prices are emerging as an important issue even outside of the vegetable market. The food-away-from-home consumer prices index sees a prominent increase, keeping its pace at +3.8% both in Q1 and Q2 against the same periods of 2020, respectively. Besides the mentioned disbalance on the market, rising demand for biofuels also propels food inflation. Soybean prices are currently seeing a rapid surge driven by the increased use of biofuel derived from soybean oil. In the medium term, this may shift investments from field crops to oil crops, contracting vegetable supply and thereby promoting price growth.

Despite rising prices, vegetable demand in the U.S. remains robust. The covid crisis resulted in a 2% decline in total vegetable production, which was estimated at 44.7M tonnes in 2020 (IndexBox estimates). Nevertheless, there was no dramatic shortage in the domestic market, as that drop was offset by a 2% increase in imports (to 8.1M tonnes in 2020) and a 3% decline in exports (to 2.5M tonnes).

Driven by the growing population, the U.S. vegetable market is forecast to reach 56M tonnes by 2030. The rather high vaccination rate in the U.S. provides an optimistic look to the potential ease of the pandemic in 2021, which will promote consumption in the HoReCa sector. Over 2021-22, however, rising inflation can offset a positive effect from the income support measures and hamper the market growth – an issue which yet requires to get a prominent answer from the government and monetary authorities.

U.S. Vegetable Exports by Country

Canada (1.8M tonnes) is the main destination for vegetable exports from the U.S., with a 73% share of the total shipments. Moreover, vegetable exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (327K tonnes), fivefold.

In value terms, Canada ($2.6B) remains the key foreign market for vegetable exports from the U.S., comprising 82% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Mexico ($232M), with a 7.4% share of total exports.

The average vegetable export price stood at $1,273 per tonne in 2020, rising by 2.3% against the previous year. Over the last eight-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013, an increase of 7.9% year-to-year. The export price peaked in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,422 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Taiwan (Chinese) ($702 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

U.S. Vegetable Imports by Country

In 2020, Mexico (6.1M tonnes) was the largest vegetable supplier to the U.S., accounting for a 75% share of total imports. Moreover, vegetable imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Canada (1.4M tonnes), fourfold.

In value terms, Mexico ($7.3B) constituted the largest supplier of vegetables to the U.S., comprising 70% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($1.9B), with an 18% share of total imports.

In 2020, the average vegetable import price amounted to $1,291 per tonne, picking up by 9% against the previous year. Over the last eight years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growing in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Peru ($1,760 per tonne), while the price for Mexico ($1,202 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Global Traders on the Move: May-June Edition

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Having spent the past 15 years of his 35-year career in the supply-chain industry at Nashville, Tennessee-based GEODIS Americas, Anthony Jordan was recently promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the region. 

Trish Skoglund has filled the newly created role of Corporate Director of Mergers and Acquisitions at Crowley Maritime Corp., a Jacksonville, Florida-based logistics, government, marine and energy solutions company. 

Jolie Cosman is now Senior Business Development Manager at deugro USA, the Woodlands, Texas-based logistics and freight-forwarding company that is a division of German family-owned deugro. 

TrueCommerce, a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based provider of trading partner connectivity, integration and unified commerce solutions, recently appointed Todd Johnson as President and Chief Operating Officer; Peter Spellman as Chief Technology Officer; and Andrew Porter as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. 

Logistics technology platform Web Integrated Network (WIN) has a new executive leadership team as part of its formal spinoff from global logistics and tech company Odyssey Logistics & Technology Corp.: Glenn Riggs, President; Lindsey Shellman, Chief Commercial Officer; and Xavier Amella, Chief Technology Officer, are leading Danbury, Connecticut-based WIN as an individual brand and separate entity. 

Michael Hanes is the new Senior Vice President of Sales at GoExpedi, a Houston-based e-commerce, supply chain and analytics company. 

Surgere, a Green, Ohio-based IoT supply chain management company, has named Robert “Rob” Fink its new Chief Growth Officer. 

Venu Vinjamaram is the new Senior Vice President of Technology and Innovation at Dayton, Ohio-based pharma transporter CSafe Global.

Merit Logistics, a San Juan Capistrano, California-based third-party warehouse services provider, recently promoted four employees to manage new client sites: Corey Hice, Oklahoma; Wayne Hubbard, Indiana; Josh Levings, Ohio; and Chris Walker, Nebraska. 

Eric Polzin is succeeding retiring Port Milwaukee Harbor Master Wayne Johnson. 

With the retirement of Richard Brough, the International Cargo Handling Coordination Association named Richard Steele as the new Head of ICHCA International. 

Liana Coyne, Coyne Airways; Bob Chi, SATS Ltd; Manel Galindo, WebCargo; and Hendrik Leyssens, Swissport, have joined the International Air Cargo Association Board of Directors.

Julie Kinnard, the Controller at Brentwood, Tennessee-based logistics management software company FreightWise, won in Startup/Private category of the Controllers Council’s recently announced 2020 Controller of the Year Awards.