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The European Sweet Potato Market Features Record Import Growth

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Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

The European Sweet Potato Market Features Record Import Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sweet Potato – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Sweet potato imports in the Netherlands, Germany and Spain are gaining momentum. From 2018 to 2020, imports to Germany increased by 20% and reached 47.4K tonnes. Over the same period, supplies to Spain tripled from 3.8K to 15.3K tonnes, while imports to the Netherlands rose by 44% and peaked at 174K tonnes. In 2020, the Netherlands overcame the UK and emerged as the top sweet potato importer. 

Global Sweet Potato Imports

In 2020, approx. 755K tonnes of sweet potato were imported worldwide; picking up by 6.9% on 2019 figures. Over the period under review, imports saw a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 28% y-o-y (IndexBox estimates). Global imports peaked in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sweet potato imports expanded significantly to $687M in 2020. In general, imports posted a prominent increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 26% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Sweet Potato Imports by Country

The Netherlands (174K tonnes) and the UK (159K tonnes) were the major importers of sweet potato in 2020, recording near 23% and 21% of total imports, respectively. Canada (76K tonnes) took a 10% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by France (7.1%), Germany (6.3%) and Belgium (5.7%). The following importers – Spain (15K tonnes), the U.S. (15K tonnes), Italy (15K tonnes), Malaysia (15K tonnes), Japan (13K tonnes) and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (12K tonnes) – each reached an 11% share of total imports.

In value terms, the largest sweet potato importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($152M), the UK ($119M) and Canada ($65M), together comprising 49% of global imports. These countries were followed by Germany, France, Belgium, Japan, the U.S., Spain, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia and Italy, which together accounted for a further 32%.

In 2020, the average sweet potato import price amounted to $909 per tonne, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2020, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,337 per tonne), while Italy ($582 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

almonds
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

U.S. Almond Exports Hit Record $1.1B in Tandem with Rising Output

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Almonds – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

U.S. almond exports hit a record high of approx. $1.1B in 2020, which was equal to 296K tonnes. An increase in harvested area, especially in California, led to a higher almond output that enabled to propel exports. India became the main importer of American almonds, accounting for 74% of the total export volume.

U.S. Almond Exports

In 2020, U.S. shipments abroad of almonds increased by 38% to 296K tonnes (IndexBox estimates), rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In value terms, almond exports totaled $1.1B in 2020.

India (218K tonnes) was the main destination for almond exports from the U.S., accounting for a 74% share of total exports. Moreover, almond exports to India exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (32K tonnes), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Hong Kong SAR (12K tonnes), with a 4% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual growth rate in terms of volume to India totaled +15.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+33.1% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+3.0% per year).

In value terms, India ($808M) remains the key foreign market for almond exports from the U.S., comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($110M), with a 10% share of total exports. It was followed by Hong Kong SAR, with a 3.7% share.

The average almond export price stood at $3,676 per tonne in 2020, down by -24.3% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the major foreign markets. In 2020, the highest prices were recorded for prices to India ($3,708 per tonne) and the United Arab Emirates ($3,602 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Turkey ($3,248 per tonne) and Hong Kong SAR ($3,387 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Peru and Mexico Challenge to Dominate the $1.3B American Blueberry and Cranberry Imports

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Blueberries And Cranberries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Blueberry and cranberry imports in the U.S. remain robust thanks to strong consumer demand, even against the limitations for cafes and restaurants. Exporters from Peru and Mexico both enjoy skyrocketing growth in terms of supplies to the American market over the last five years, including 2020. Canadian and Chilean producers, as well as domestic growers, have to put on steam to benefit from future market growth.

Imports into the U.S.

Blueberry and cranberry imports to the U.S. soared to $1.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. Overall, the value of imports posted solid gains, following that of the import volume.

In physical terms,  the U.S. recorded growth in supplies from abroad of blueberries and cranberries, which increased by 13% to 273K tonnes in 2020. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the last eight-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2020 figures, imports increased by +52.6% against 2017 indices.

Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come. The high rate of vaccination opens the light for relief from the pandemic. Together with the increasing population and recovering incomes, it secures the demand for blueberries and cranberries will remain strong in the medium term. The American market thus becomes even more attractive for suppliers from abroad and requires the domestic growers to struggle for their market position.

Imports by Country

Peru (84K tonnes), Canada (78K tonnes) and Chile (52K tonnes) were the main suppliers of blueberry and cranberry imports to the U.S., together accounting for 79% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2020, the biggest increases were in the supplies from Peru and Mexico, thanks to skyrocketing volumes over the last five years. Purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Peru ($554M), Mexico ($364M) and Chile ($289M) appeared to be the largest blueberry and cranberry suppliers to the U.S., together comprising 88% of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

In 2020, the average blueberry and cranberry import price amounted to $5,030 per tonne, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Over the last thirteen years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when the average import price increased by 29% against the previous year. As a result, import prices attained the peak level of $5,481 per tonne. From 2009 to 2020, the growth in terms of the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($7,085 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($1,670 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Spain’s Peach Export Prices Surge on Lower Yields but Key Markets Still Remain Secure

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Peaches And Nectarines – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Spain remains the largest peach and nectarine exporter worldwide, with a share of 34% in terms of the global volume. In 2020, the harvest was damaged by frosts, which led to a reduction of supplies. Export prices thus ramped up and are to remain high until yields stabilize. Despite this, Spain’s position on the key foreign markets in Germany and France remained secure. The year 2021 remains uneven in terms of future yield, which strengthens the risk that buyers will seek cheaper alternatives.

Exports from Spain

Peach and nectarine exports from Spain reduced rapidly to 654K tonnes in 2020, falling by -21.1% against 2019 figures. This was largely attributed to a harvest loss due to frosts in 2020. In value terms, peach and nectarine exports expanded remarkably to $971M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

Exports by Country

Germany (208K tonnes), France (112K tonnes) and Italy (96K tonnes) were the main destinations of peach and nectarine exports from Spain, with a combined 64% share of total exports. These countries were followed by the UK, Portugal, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland, which together accounted for a further 25%.

In value terms, Germany ($332M) remains the key foreign market for peach and nectarine exports from Spain, comprising 34% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by France ($156M), with a 16% share of total exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 12% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of value to Germany amounted to +8.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (+1.5% per year) and Italy (+4.7% per year).

Despite rising prices, Spanish peaches and nectarines hold near 80% in terms of German imports and over 90% in French imports. In 2021, there is a risk that adverse weather conditions may continue, which could push buyers to seek new countries for sourcing the product.

Export Prices

In 2020, the average peach and nectarine export price amounted to $1,484 per tonne, growing by 43% against the previous year. This resulted from a shortage in supplies due to poor yields. As a result, export price attained the peak level and is may keep at this level if weather conditions remain adverse in 2021.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($2,086 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Portugal ($1,053 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Robust Demand for Salad Kits and Organic Food Drives the U.S. Lettuce Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Lettuce And Chicory – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

During the pandemic, demand for lettuce in the HoReCa sector fell but was offset by growth in sales to the retail segment. The balance between supply and demand on the market was maintained due to a large lettuce harvest in 2020, an increase in imported supply, and a decline in exports. This enabled prices to remain stable. For the past five years, the share of organic lettuce on the market doubled, reaching 7% and will continue to grow. 

Key Trends and Insights

In the U.S., 2020 was the year of the harvest for leaf lettuce and Romaine lettuce. According to the USDA, production grew by 25% and 11% y-o-y, respectively, while iceberg lettuce production decreased by 8% due to hot weather conditions.

During the pandemic, demand for leaf lettuce in the HoReCa sector fell but was completely balanced out by increased sales in the retail segment. Pre-packaged lettuce was in high demand from households amid lockdowns and the related trend towards increased home cooking. Salad kits with various flavors, herbal aromas and seasonings have been strengthening as a promising trend in the food industry.

Imported lettuce also enjoyed high demand. In 2020, the amount of lettuce and chicory imported into the country rose by 3.1% y-o-y to 376K tonnes. Mexico remains the dominant supplier of lettuce to the U.S., fulfilling 91% of deliveries. Canada provides 8.5% of the total supply, and these two countries nearly cover the entire demand for imported lettuce.

For the past five years, the share of organic lettuce on the American market doubled, reaching approximately 7%. The heightened attention to healthy eating habits is to keep the increase in organic food consumption buoyant throughout the mid-term.

The average retail price for lettuce in 2020 was $0.72 per kg for non-organic and $1.08 per kg for organic. It is forecast that as of yearend 2021, the average price for non-organic lettuce will not surpass 2020 levels, while the price for organic lettuce will slightly increase due to high demand and growing popularity of organic food.

The main driver for market expansion will be due to increased consumption from the growing U.S. population. Further increases in demand for lettuce will be boosted by the HoReCa segment returning to work upon lifting COVID restrictions. Rapidly developing home food-delivery services on the backdrop of the suburb construction boom should also contribute to the market growth.

U.S. Lettuce and Chicory Production

Lettuce and chicory production in the U.S. amounted to 3.6M tonnes (IndexBox estimates) in 2020, standing approx. at the previous year. In value terms, lettuce and chicory production totaled $6B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

U.S. Lettuce and Chicory Imports

In 2020, lettuce and chicory imports amounted to $424M in 2020.

Mexico ($369M) constituted the largest supplier of lettuce and chicory to the U.S., comprising 87% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($50M), with a 12% share of total imports.

In 2020, the average lettuce and chicory import price amounted to $1,128 per tonne, with an increase of 5.6% against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,545 per tonne), while the price for Mexico stood at $1,079 per tonne.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Strong Demand for Livestock Feed Propels the Chinese Dry Peas Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Peas (Dry) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The Chinese dry peas market is becoming an attractive export destination for overseas suppliers. In 2020, China increased the volume of imports of dry peas by 45%, as the country is actively recovering its livestock reserves after an outbreak of swine fever and is in dire need of crops for animal feed. Against the background of rising grain prices, peas are becoming a more affordable alternative component in animal feed.

Key Trends and Insights

China remains the largest consumer of dry peas in the world with a 35.9% (IndexBox estimates) share of the global market. In 2020, the country’s consumption of dry peas jumped up by 20% due to increased use in animal feed. China continues to actively restore its livestock population after the swine fever epidemic, with the need for feed increasing significantly. Dry peas have become an excellent alternative replacement with the scarcity of corn and other more expensive grains such as soybeans and barley.

China is the second-largest pea-producing country. In 2020, the harvest in the domestic market exceeded the indicators of the previous year by 2.5% and reached 3M tonnes. Despite this, the country’s production cannot fully meet the growing domestic demand, and China remains the world’s leading importer of dry peas. In 2020, the country increased the volume of imports by 45% to 2.9M tonnes. About 94% of imported dry peas are sourced from Canada, and almost all of the remainder comes from the U.S. (4.3%).

In 2021-2022, Ukraine and Russia could challenge those leading suppliers in the Chinese import market, as pea yields are growing rapidly in these countries, and as work is underway on phytosanitary agreements to access the Chinese market.

The growing demand for food products in the context of an increasing population will remain a primary market driver. The demand for feed and fodder in China will further stimulate the market, but as the pig population recovers, the increase in demand in this segment will slow. Taking this into account, the market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of +2.8% and reach 7.7M tonnes by 2030.

Market Size

In 2020, approx. 5.9M tonnes of dry peas were consumed in China, picking up by 20% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, consumption recorded a resilient expansion.  Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

For the third consecutive year, the Chinese dry peas market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 20% to $10.3B in 2020. In general, consumption posted a strong increase.

China’s Dry Peas Imports  by Country

In 2020, the volume of dry peas imported into China soared to 2.9M tonnes, rising by 45% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, dry peas imports skyrocketed to $821Min 2020.

In 2020, Canada (2.7M tonnes) was the main supplier of dry peas to China, with a 94% share of total imports. Moreover, dry peas imports from Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the U.S. (125K tonnes), more than tenfold.

The average import price stood at $282 per tonne in 2020, declining by -2.9% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was France ($345 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($278 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Record Pistachio Harvest in the U.S. Will Rise Up Exports and Stabilize Prices

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Pistachios – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2021, production of pistachios in the U.S. will break previous years’ records thanks to large yields and an increase in the bearing average. This will enable an expansion of exports, primarily to the EU and China, and retaining stable prices on the domestic market. Heading into 2022, the U.S. will strengthen its position in the global market as its closest competitor, Iran, faces a lower yield that will cause it to deplete its pistachio reserves.

Key Trends and Insights

The U.S. expects a record harvest of pistachios in 2021. The USDA forecasts that production will grow from 352K to 454K tonnes of in-shell nuts, which is equivalent to 230K tonnes of shelled produce. According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP), the average yield per acre in 2020 gained by 30% y-o-y, bearing acreage increased by 21.6K acres. A large harvest should keep prices stable on the domestic market.

Exports from the U.S. are expected to rise by 40% in 2021. The EU and China are expected to be the primary markets for American pistachios, despite the cloudy trade relations with the latter. With a global market share of 33%, China will remain the largest importer of pistachios.

The U.S. will continue to hold its position as the global leader in pistachio production with a slight lead over Iran, the second-largest producer. Unlike in the U.S., Iran forecasts a decline in yield in 2021, but the country will retain its level of exports due to supplies from last year’s reserves. As Iran depletes its reserves, the U.S. is expected to strengthen its position in the global export market in 2022 and seal its status as the leading global provider.

The increase in demand for pistachios will be mainly driven by the growth in the global population. During the pandemic, retail sales of pistachios have been declining amidst a fall in real income as people rejected expensive and non-essential food. This larger trend is the primary factor hindering growth in the market. As quarantine measures are being gradually lifted, the HoReCa segment will begin to recover, boosting demand in the B2B sector and expanding the pistachio market.

U.S. Pistachio Production

In 2020, production of pistachios in the U.S. was estimated at 352K tonnes, increasing by 4.9% in 2019. Over the period under review, production posted perceptible growth. Pistachio production peaked at 448K tonnes in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2020, production remained at a lower figure. Pistachio output in the U.S. indicated a temperate increase, largely conditioned by a pronounced expansion of the harvested area and a perceptible curtailment in yield figures. In value terms, pistachio production expanded notably to $2.9B in 2020.

U.S. Pistachio Exports

In 2020, overseas shipments of pistachios decreased by -22.7% to 178K tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In value terms, pistachio exports shrank dramatically to $1.5B in 2020. In general, exports, however, recorded a prominent increase over the last decade.

China (46K tonnes), Germany (25K tonnes) and Belgium (22K tonnes) were the main destinations of pistachio exports from the U.S., together comprising 52% of total exports. These countries were followed by Hong Kong SAR, Spain, Viet Nam, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, France and Israel, which together accounted for a further 33%.

The average pistachio export price in the U.S. stood at $8,325 per tonne in 2020, with an increase of 3% against the previous year. Over the last eight-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. Average prices varied somewhat for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were Spain ($9,350 per tonne) and Italy ($9,279 per tonne), while the average prices for exports to Viet Nam ($7,267 per tonne) and China ($7,615 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Kiwi Exports from New Zealand to Set New Records

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘New Zealand – Kiwi Fruits – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

New Zealand remains the largest kiwi exporting country, supplying near 572K tonnes in 2020, which accounted for 41% of the global shipments. Despite the Covid-related restrictions, 2020 saw an 8.3% y-o-y spike in kiwi export supplies from New Zealand. This year, the country is expected to beat its previous export record, due to the highest yield. 

Kiwi fruit Exports from New Zealand

New Zealand represented the largest exporting country with a 41% share of global exports (1.4M tonnes). Kiwi fruit exports from New Zealand stood at 572K tonnes in 2020, picking up by 8.3% compared with the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2020; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, exports reached the peak figure in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, kiwi fruit exports surged to $1.7B in 2020. Overall, exports posted prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Exports peaked in 2020 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Belgium (131K tonnes), Japan (104K tonnes) and China (96K tonnes) were the main destinations of kiwi fruit exports from New Zealand, with a combined 58% share of total exports. From 2007 to 2020, the biggest increases were in supplies to China, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for kiwi fruit exported from New Zealand were Japan ($427M), China ($394M) and Belgium ($243M), together comprising 61% of total exports.

In 2020, the average kiwi fruit export price amounted to $3,026 per tonne, with an increase of 7.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a prominent increase from 2007 to 2020: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last thirteen-year period.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Japan ($4,111 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Belgium ($1,857 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

According to the New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers Incorporated, kiwi exports from New Zealand in 2021 are forecast to break the last-year record. This will become feasible due to the rising production.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

China Ramps Up Supplies and Drives Out Competitors from the Philippine Apple Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Apple – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, apple exports from China increased by 22% to 1.2M tonnes, thanks to the shipments to the Philippines have doubled. China’s share in the Philippine apple imports reached 92.1%. Apart from the Philippines, the main export destinations for China were Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Hong Kong (SAR) and Singapore.

Apple Exports from China

In 2020, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in shipments abroad of apples, when their volume increased by 22% to 1.2M tonnes. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eight-year period. In value terms, apple exports skyrocketed to $1.4B in 2020. Overall, exports enjoyed a prominent expansion.

Myanmar (183K tonnes), Bangladesh (179K tonnes) and the Philippines (168K tonnes) were the main destinations of apple exports from China, with a combined 45% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Viet Nam, Thailand, Indonesia and Nepal, which together accounted for a further 40%.

2020 saw a twofold increase in apple supplies from China to the Philippines. China gained its share in the Philippine apple market to reach 92.1% and was followed by the U.S. (4.1%) and New Zealand (3.1%).

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Viet Nam, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for apple exported from China were Viet Nam ($322M), the Philippines ($213M) and Thailand ($213M), together accounting for 52% of total exports.

The average apple export price stood at $1,220 per tonne in 2020, waning by -4.9% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2020: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eight years. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Viet Nam, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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The U.S. Milk Production Rises on Strong Domestic and Export Demand for Processed Dairy Products

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

USDA forecasts that milk production in the U.S. will rise by 2.1% in 2021 thanks to gains in yield per cow as well as a slight increase in the number of milk cows. The average yearly price received by farmers for cow milk in 2021 is predicted to grow by 3.9% y-o-y amidst a rally in prices for animal feed. Rising consumer demand for cheese and butter continues to drive the market on the backdrop of lower demand for beverage milk. Demand in Asia for imported dairy products features as another factor boosting milk processing in the U.S.

Key Trends and Insights

According to IndexBox, in 2020, U.S. milk production increased by 1.3% y-o-y to 100M tonnes, and it is forecast to rise at the same pace for the next two years due to demand from the growing population.

The average number of milk cows in the U.S. rose from 9,337 heads in 2019 to 9,388 heads in 2020 but remains below the 2017-2018 figures. In the second half of 2021 and into 2022, farmers are expected to accelerate the pace of butchering and decrease the total head of cattle as they respond to higher costs of feed resulting from summer droughts. The expected decline in milk due to fewer cattle should be offset by increased milk production per cow.

The USDA estimates that as of year-end 2021, the average yearly farmer’s price will grow by 3.9% y-o-y to $0.43 per liter due to rallying feed prices. In 2022, the cost of milk should fall by 2.4% in comparison with 2021 to $0.42 per liter thanks to the expected increase in production but will remain higher than the 2020 figures ($0.41 per liter).

Over the last decade, the per capita milk consumption in the U.S., incl. both fresh milk of all kinds and milk used for processing, grew by 6.7% and in 2020 reached 354 kg/person, but the structure of the demand has been changing. Americans continue drinking less milk while consuming more cheese and butter. This long-term shift towards processed dairy products will drive market growth for milk in the mid-term. In Asia, imported produce is becoming highly sought after and this should expand exports of American cheese and other dairy products, while additionally driving demand for milk.

U.S. Milk Production

In 2020, approx. 118M tonnes of milk were produced in the U.S.; picking up by 1.6% compared with 2019 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 2.7% year-to-year. Milk production peaked in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, milk production expanded significantly to $127.8B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Milk production peaked at $130.4B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2020, production remained at a lower figure.

U.S. Milk Imports

For the third consecutive year, the U.S. recorded growth in purchases abroad of milk, which increased by 7.2% to 19K tonnes in 2020. Overall, imports recorded buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, milk imports dropped rapidly to $22M in 2020. Overall, imports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 24% year-to-year. As a result, imports reached a peak of $30M. from 2019 to 2020, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2020, whole fresh milk (31K tonnes) constituted the largest type of milk supplied to the U.S., with a 68% share of total imports. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk of cows (14K tonnes), twofold.

Canada (25K tonnes), Mexico (16K tonnes) and New Zealand (818 tonnes) were the main suppliers of milk imports to the U.S. In value terms, Mexico ($35M), Canada ($25M) and New Zealand ($1.9M) appeared to be the largest milk suppliers to the U.S.

In 2020, the average milk import price amounted to $1,157 per tonne, waning by -21.3% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was New Zealand ($2,270 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($997 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform