IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Pistachios – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2021, production of pistachios in the U.S. will break previous years’ records thanks to large yields and an increase in the bearing average. This will enable an expansion of exports, primarily to the EU and China, and retaining stable prices on the domestic market. Heading into 2022, the U.S. will strengthen its position in the global market as its closest competitor, Iran, faces a lower yield that will cause it to deplete its pistachio reserves.

Key Trends and Insights

The U.S. expects a record harvest of pistachios in 2021. The USDA forecasts that production will grow from 352K to 454K tonnes of in-shell nuts, which is equivalent to 230K tonnes of shelled produce. According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP), the average yield per acre in 2020 gained by 30% y-o-y, bearing acreage increased by 21.6K acres. A large harvest should keep prices stable on the domestic market.

Exports from the U.S. are expected to rise by 40% in 2021. The EU and China are expected to be the primary markets for American pistachios, despite the cloudy trade relations with the latter. With a global market share of 33%, China will remain the largest importer of pistachios.

The U.S. will continue to hold its position as the global leader in pistachio production with a slight lead over Iran, the second-largest producer. Unlike in the U.S., Iran forecasts a decline in yield in 2021, but the country will retain its level of exports due to supplies from last year’s reserves. As Iran depletes its reserves, the U.S. is expected to strengthen its position in the global export market in 2022 and seal its status as the leading global provider.

The increase in demand for pistachios will be mainly driven by the growth in the global population. During the pandemic, retail sales of pistachios have been declining amidst a fall in real income as people rejected expensive and non-essential food. This larger trend is the primary factor hindering growth in the market. As quarantine measures are being gradually lifted, the HoReCa segment will begin to recover, boosting demand in the B2B sector and expanding the pistachio market.

U.S. Pistachio Production

In 2020, production of pistachios in the U.S. was estimated at 352K tonnes, increasing by 4.9% in 2019. Over the period under review, production posted perceptible growth. Pistachio production peaked at 448K tonnes in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2020, production remained at a lower figure. Pistachio output in the U.S. indicated a temperate increase, largely conditioned by a pronounced expansion of the harvested area and a perceptible curtailment in yield figures. In value terms, pistachio production expanded notably to $2.9B in 2020.

U.S. Pistachio Exports

In 2020, overseas shipments of pistachios decreased by -22.7% to 178K tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In value terms, pistachio exports shrank dramatically to $1.5B in 2020. In general, exports, however, recorded a prominent increase over the last decade.

China (46K tonnes), Germany (25K tonnes) and Belgium (22K tonnes) were the main destinations of pistachio exports from the U.S., together comprising 52% of total exports. These countries were followed by Hong Kong SAR, Spain, Viet Nam, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, France and Israel, which together accounted for a further 33%.

The average pistachio export price in the U.S. stood at $8,325 per tonne in 2020, with an increase of 3% against the previous year. Over the last eight-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. Average prices varied somewhat for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were Spain ($9,350 per tonne) and Italy ($9,279 per tonne), while the average prices for exports to Viet Nam ($7,267 per tonne) and China ($7,615 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform