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The U.S. Milk Production Rises on Strong Domestic and Export Demand for Processed Dairy Products

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The U.S. Milk Production Rises on Strong Domestic and Export Demand for Processed Dairy Products

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

USDA forecasts that milk production in the U.S. will rise by 2.1% in 2021 thanks to gains in yield per cow as well as a slight increase in the number of milk cows. The average yearly price received by farmers for cow milk in 2021 is predicted to grow by 3.9% y-o-y amidst a rally in prices for animal feed. Rising consumer demand for cheese and butter continues to drive the market on the backdrop of lower demand for beverage milk. Demand in Asia for imported dairy products features as another factor boosting milk processing in the U.S.

Key Trends and Insights

According to IndexBox, in 2020, U.S. milk production increased by 1.3% y-o-y to 100M tonnes, and it is forecast to rise at the same pace for the next two years due to demand from the growing population.

The average number of milk cows in the U.S. rose from 9,337 heads in 2019 to 9,388 heads in 2020 but remains below the 2017-2018 figures. In the second half of 2021 and into 2022, farmers are expected to accelerate the pace of butchering and decrease the total head of cattle as they respond to higher costs of feed resulting from summer droughts. The expected decline in milk due to fewer cattle should be offset by increased milk production per cow.

The USDA estimates that as of year-end 2021, the average yearly farmer’s price will grow by 3.9% y-o-y to $0.43 per liter due to rallying feed prices. In 2022, the cost of milk should fall by 2.4% in comparison with 2021 to $0.42 per liter thanks to the expected increase in production but will remain higher than the 2020 figures ($0.41 per liter).

Over the last decade, the per capita milk consumption in the U.S., incl. both fresh milk of all kinds and milk used for processing, grew by 6.7% and in 2020 reached 354 kg/person, but the structure of the demand has been changing. Americans continue drinking less milk while consuming more cheese and butter. This long-term shift towards processed dairy products will drive market growth for milk in the mid-term. In Asia, imported produce is becoming highly sought after and this should expand exports of American cheese and other dairy products, while additionally driving demand for milk.

U.S. Milk Production

In 2020, approx. 118M tonnes of milk were produced in the U.S.; picking up by 1.6% compared with 2019 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 2.7% year-to-year. Milk production peaked in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, milk production expanded significantly to $127.8B in 2020. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2020; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Milk production peaked at $130.4B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2020, production remained at a lower figure.

U.S. Milk Imports

For the third consecutive year, the U.S. recorded growth in purchases abroad of milk, which increased by 7.2% to 19K tonnes in 2020. Overall, imports recorded buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, milk imports dropped rapidly to $22M in 2020. Overall, imports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 24% year-to-year. As a result, imports reached a peak of $30M. from 2019 to 2020, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2020, whole fresh milk (31K tonnes) constituted the largest type of milk supplied to the U.S., with a 68% share of total imports. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk of cows (14K tonnes), twofold.

Canada (25K tonnes), Mexico (16K tonnes) and New Zealand (818 tonnes) were the main suppliers of milk imports to the U.S. In value terms, Mexico ($35M), Canada ($25M) and New Zealand ($1.9M) appeared to be the largest milk suppliers to the U.S.

In 2020, the average milk import price amounted to $1,157 per tonne, waning by -21.3% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was New Zealand ($2,270 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($997 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Sweetened Condensed And Evaporated Milk Market in the EU Remains Robust

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Sweetened) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the market for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) in the European Union amounted to $705M in 2018, rising by 2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Market value continues to increase for the third consecutive year.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) in 2018 were the UK (101K tonnes), the Netherlands (54K tonnes) and Germany (32K tonnes), together comprising 58% of total consumption. France, Spain, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Austria, Portugal, Belgium, Poland and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened), amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Lithuania, while consumption of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($289M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($83M). It was followed by France.

The countries with the highest levels of sweetened condensed and evaporated milk per capita consumption in 2018 were the Netherlands (3,166 kg per 1000 persons), Lithuania (1,771 kg per 1000 persons) and the UK (1,512 kg per 1000 persons).

Production in the EU

The volume of production of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) totaled 406K tonnes in 2018, jumping by 3.3% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations over the period under review. The volume of production of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of production of sweetened condensed or evaporated milk in 2018 were the Netherlands (100K tonnes), the UK (78K tonnes) and Belgium (61K tonnes), together accounting for 59% of total production. Germany, Spain, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Germany, while production in the other leading countries experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 262K tonnes of sweetened condensed or evaporated milk were exported in the European Union; increasing by 11% against the previous year. In general, exports of sweetened condensed or evaporated milk continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, exports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) attained their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future. In value terms, exports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) totaled $617M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (81K tonnes) and Belgium (62K tonnes) represented roughly 55% of total exports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) in 2018. Spain (33K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by Germany (12%). France (11,077 tonnes), the UK (10,134 tonnes), Denmark (7,417 tonnes), Lithuania (5,182 tonnes) and Poland (4,974 tonnes) occupied a little share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($212M), Belgium ($161M) and Spain ($67M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 71% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Germany, France, Denmark, the UK, Poland and Lithuania, which together accounted for a further 23%.

Export Prices by Country

The export price for sweetened condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union stood at $2,357 per tonne in 2018, surging by 6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($2,969 per tonne), while the UK ($1,852 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

The volume of imports stood at 180K tonnes in 2018, jumping by 9.1% against the previous year. The total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, imports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) increased by +29.1% against 2014 indices. Over the period under review, imports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. In value terms, imports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) stood at $357M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The Netherlands (35K tonnes), the UK (33K tonnes) and France (31K tonnes) represented roughly 55% of total imports of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) in 2018. Spain (15K tonnes) took an 8.1% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (6.4%). Belgium (7,673 tonnes), Portugal (6,891 tonnes), Ireland (5,599 tonnes), Poland (5,262 tonnes), Greece (5,054 tonnes), Italy (4,155 tonnes) and Lithuania (3,701 tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Lithuania, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($70M), France ($66M) and the Netherlands ($52M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together comprising 53% of total imports. These countries were followed by Spain, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Greece, Ireland and Lithuania, which together accounted for a further 39%.

Import Prices by Country

The import price for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) in the European Union stood at $1,983 per tonne in 2018, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, the import price for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) continues to indicate a slight descent.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,562 per tonne), while the Netherlands ($1,489 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Global Whole Fresh Milk Market 2019 – Output is Driven by Increasing Demand in India, Turkey, the EU, and the U.S.

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Whole Fresh Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global whole fresh milk market is estimated at $798.4B in 2018, an increase of 1.7% from 2017. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 8.8% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the global whole fresh milk market attained its maximum level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of whole fresh milk consumption in 2018 were India (185M tonnes), the U.S. (99M tonnes) and Pakistan (46M tonnes), with a combined 39% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Brazil, China, Germany, Russia, France, New Zealand, Turkey, the Netherlands and the UK, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of whole fresh milk consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Turkey, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whole fresh milk markets worldwide were India ($140.3B), the U.S. ($87.4B) and Brazil ($67.7B), together accounting for 37% of the global market. These countries were followed by Pakistan, New Zealand, China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, France, the Netherlands and the UK, which together accounted for a further 27%.

In 2018, the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (4,626 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (877 kg per person), Germany (417 kg per person) and France (384 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whole fresh milk was estimated at 110 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the whole fresh milk per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled +2.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+2.4% per year) and Germany (+1.8% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 946M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 846M tonnes of whole fresh milk were produced worldwide; increasing by 2.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 3.4% y-o-y. The global whole fresh milk production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of whole fresh milk output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, whole fresh milk production amounted to $780.5B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of whole fresh milk production in 2018 were India (185M tonnes), the U.S. (99M tonnes) and Pakistan (46M tonnes), with a combined 39% share of global production. Brazil, China, Germany, Russia, France, New Zealand, Turkey, the UK and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of whole fresh milk production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Turkey, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals 2007-2018

In 2018, the global number of animals for whole fresh milk output amounted to 821M heads, rising by 1.7% against the previous year. This number increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009 when the number of producing animals increased by 3.3% y-o-y. The global number of animals for whole fresh milk production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Yield 2007-2018

In 2018, the global average yield for whole fresh milk output stood at 1 tonne per head, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the whole fresh milk yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 2.7% y-o-y. The global whole fresh milk yield peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports amounted to 10M tonnes in 2018, reducing by -11.5% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global whole fresh milk exports reached their maximum at 11M tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports stood at $6.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 26% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global whole fresh milk exports attained their peak figure at $8.6B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Germany (1.4M tonnes), followed by the Czech Republic (855K tonnes), the UK (822K tonnes), Belgium (746K tonnes), the Netherlands (741K tonnes), France (698K tonnes), Poland (606K tonnes) and Austria (582K tonnes) were the major exporters of whole fresh milk, together achieving 65% of total exports. The following exporters – Latvia (340K tonnes), Hungary (316K tonnes), Slovenia (284K tonnes) and Luxembourg (253K tonnes) – each recorded a 12% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whole fresh milk markets worldwide were Germany ($976M), the Netherlands ($715M) and Belgium ($664M), together comprising 34% of global exports. These countries were followed by France, Poland, the UK, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg and Slovenia, which together accounted for a further 37%.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland recorded the highest growth rate of exports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average whole fresh milk export price stood at $696 per tonne in 2018, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, the whole fresh milk export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 14% year-to-year. In that year, the average export prices for whole fresh milk reached their peak level of $811 per tonne. From 2014 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for whole fresh milk remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($965 per tonne), while Latvia ($377 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 11M tonnes of whole fresh milk were imported worldwide; falling by -5.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of 14% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global whole fresh milk imports attained their peak figure at 12M tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, whole fresh milk imports stood at $8.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 27% year-to-year. The global imports peaked at $8.6B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Germany (2.5M tonnes), distantly followed by Italy (1.2M tonnes), Belgium (914K tonnes), the Netherlands (803K tonnes), Ireland (764K tonnes) and China (580K tonnes) were the largest importers of whole fresh milk, together making up 61% of total imports. Lithuania (480K tonnes), France (363K tonnes), Russia (238K tonnes), Croatia (206K tonnes), Poland (187K tonnes) and Romania (184K tonnes) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk imports into Germany stood at +5.7%. At the same time, China (+57.8%), Croatia (+21.9%), Poland (+13.7%), Romania (+13.1%), Lithuania (+11.4%), Ireland (+10.6%), Russia (+6.5%), the Netherlands (+6.1%) and Belgium (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer in the world, with a CAGR of +57.8% from 2007-2018.

By contrast, France (-1.5%) and Italy (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Germany, China, Ireland, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Croatia and Belgium increased by +10%, +5.2%, +4.6%, +3.5%, +3%, +1.6% and +1.5% percentage points, while Italy (-4.4 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($1.5B), China ($747M) and Italy ($733M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together comprising 36% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, China (+54.0% per year) recorded the highest growth rate of imports, over the last eleven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average whole fresh milk import price amounted to $735 per tonne, picking up by 4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the whole fresh milk import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 16% year-to-year. The global import price peaked at $802 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was France ($1,584 per tonne), while Lithuania ($383 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform