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The European Domestic Appliance Market Expands Rapidly, Adapting to New Energy Efficiency Requirements

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The European Domestic Appliance Market Expands Rapidly, Adapting to New Energy Efficiency Requirements

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Domestic Appliances – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The second half of 2020 saw an unprecedented increase in demand for household appliances, as during the lockdown people started to use domestic equipment more intensively. While enjoying buoyant growth, producers are to adjust to higher standards in terms of energy efficiency and reducing waste.

Key Trends and Insights

In April 2020, Eurostat data indicates the EU manufacture of electric domestic appliances fell by 55.3% against the same period of 2019. In the second half of 2020, however, the production accelerated, enabling the total 2020’s result to remain near $40B (IndexBox’s estimate in wholesale price). During the lockdown, people started to use domestic equipment more intensively, focusing on the improvement and hygiene of their environment.

Since 2020, e-commerce emerged among key domestic appliance sales channels. Against Covid restrictions and heightened demand, it even led to delays in deliveries in some cases, until sellers adapted to new delivery conditions.

Following the European Green Deal, the energy efficiency of domestic appliances is seeing continuous improvement. Over the last two years, there have been notable advances in terms of fridge, TV and domestic fan appliances. Energy-efficient LED lamps and solar panels are increasingly being used in domestic appliance manufacture. As of March 2021, the EU introduced new energy efficiency labelling standards. The new labelling scale is now much stricter than its previous counterpart and has been designed so that very few appliances can be awarded the ‘A’ efficiency standard mark. That increases the scope for more energy-efficient products to be included under this standard in the future.

Manufacturers are now obliged under the EU standards to provide a 10-year warranty for equipment. This is to benefit users with increasing equipment reliability and reduced waste. On the other hand, it may lead to rising prices for appliances in the future, as manufacturers will incorporate the cost of maintaining the stock of appliance spare parts for 10 years into the selling price.

Germany, the UK and Italy to Remain the Main Consuming Countries

The countries with the highest volumes of domestic appliances consumption in 2019 were the UK (226M units), Germany (207M units) and Italy (185M units), together comprising 43% of total consumption. France, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 45% (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in the Czech Republic, while domestic appliance consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($8B), the UK ($6.1B) and France ($6B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, with a combined 44% share of the total market. Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

The countries with the highest levels of domestic appliances per capita consumption in 2019 were the Netherlands (4.81 units per person), the Czech Republic (4.34 units per person) and Belgium (4.34 units per person).

In 2019, Germany (313M units), distantly followed by the UK (189M units), France (168M units), the Netherlands (132M units), Italy (105M units) and Spain (74M units) were the largest importers of domestic appliances, together achieving 69% of total imports. Poland (62M units), Belgium (54M units), Hungary (41M units), Sweden (37M units), Romania (35M units), the Czech Republic (32M units) and Austria (30M units) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Romania, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($9.8B), France ($6.5B) and the UK ($5.6B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, with a combined 44% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, which together accounted for a further 43% (IndexBox estimates).

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Container xChange: Suez Canal Closure Increases the Pressure on Europe’s Ports

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The anticipated box crunch at European ports following the closure of the Suez Canal at the end of March has been less severe than expected, according to Container xChange.

However, Europe’s leading box hubs are still receiving far more boxes than are departing.

The average CAx reading of incoming 20-foot dry-containers across three of Europe’s biggest ports – Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg – climbed just 3% in week 17 compared to the week before.

At Rotterdam, the increase in incoming 20 ft. dry containers was most stark, with box numbers rising +3.75% week-on-week. At Antwerp, the week-on-week increase was +3.5%, while at Hamburg it was +2.2%.

At all three ports, incoming box traffic has been heavy since March. In Container xChange’s Container Availability Index (CAx) an index reading of below 0.5 means more containers leave a port compared to the number which enter. Above 0.5 means more containers are entering the port.

Chart: Container Availability Index for 20 ft. Dry-Containers at the ports of Antwerp, Rotterdam, Felixstowe, and Hamburg in 2021. For more info, click here.

Hamburg has recorded a CAx reading of above 0.8 since week 9 of this year. In week 17 its CAx reading was 0.93, up from 0.48 in week 1. Rotterdam’s CAx reading has also risen steadily in 2021, climbing from 0.65 in week 1 to 0.74 in week 9 and up to 0.83 in week 17.

Antwerp, meanwhile, recorded a CAx of 0.38 at the start of the year, 0.78 in week 9 and 0.9 in week 17.

In contrast, the situation at heavily-congested Felixstowe has been dire all year. The hub’s lowest CAx this year was 0.87 in week 3. In week 17 it recorded a CAx of 0.95, up from 0.94 in week 16.

Dr. Johannes Schlingmeier, CEO & Founder of Container xChange, the world’s leading container leasing and trading platform, commented:

“Europe’s top container terminals have been struggling to keep congestion at bay, with incoming boxes outweighing outgoing boxes for much of 2021. The closure of the Suez Canal appears to have only made the box crunch at Europe’s hubs only slightly worse than it already was.

“What we’re hearing from our container leasing and trading members is that they find it increasingly difficult to book export containers with the carriers across Europe. It seems shipping lines are prioritizing empty containers in order to move the boxes back to China as fast as possible.”

__________________________________________________________________

About the Container Availability Index:

The Container Availability Index tracks millions of monthly container moves to monitor and forecast the global container equipment supply. An index of 0.5 describes a balanced market, below 0.5 a shortage of containers. For more information and weekly email updates, check out https://container-xchange.com/features/cax/

About Container xChange:

Container xChange is the world’s leading online platform used by 600+ companies to buy, sell and lease shipping containers. Container users and owners use the platform to find containers, work with vetted partners and automate the operational workload. Started by Dr. Johannes Schlingmeier and Christian Roeloffs in 2017, the company has now more than 100+ employees with headquarters in Hamburg, Germany. https://container-xchange.com/

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The European Peat Market to Languish Due to New Eco Regulation

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Peat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The European peat market is entering a downward trend against the targeted regulation strategy to cut peat output and consumption. The EU is committed to protecting the peat deposits, as they naturally absorb greenhouse gases. Alternatives to peat are increasingly being used in agriculture and other areas, such as energy and wastewater treatment.

Key Trends and Insights

Europe remains committed to reducing peat consumption in a bid to protect natural peat deposits. These deposits are believed to absorb carbon dioxide from the air, contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gases. Projects are now underway in Ireland and Sweden to restore the peatlands.

According to USGS data, in 2020, peat production fell in Finland to 8.4M tonnes (-15.3% y-o-y), in Germany to 2.3M tonnes (-4.8% y-o-y), in Latvia to 1.5M tonnes (-13.6%), in Poland to 0.7M tonnes (-19.5% y-o-y), and in Sweden to 1.8M tonnes (-16.7% y-o-y).

Output increased only in Ireland, to 2.8M tonnes (+15.6%) and in Estonia, to 0.9M tonnes (+1.1%). Ireland also intends to curtail peat production, following the country’s shift towards alternative sources of energy, ceasing peat extraction by 2028. Finland has also set similar targets for transferring to alternative energy, but approx. 40% of the country’s energy consumption is still generated by peat and other fossil fuels. Finland intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2035, implying a shift away from peat in the energy sector.

Such a negative trend in terms of peat production is now evident worldwide. According to preliminary estimates, global peat output in 2020 amounted to 29M tonnes, against 33M tonnes in 2019. This trend is to continue in the medium term against rising environmental concerns.

In the period to 2030, the European peat market is forecast to decline to 20M tonnes (IndexBox estimates). Compost made from wood, coconut fibre, deciduous plants, coniferous species and moss is set to replace the use of peat in the agriculture sector. Geotextiles, sand and polyurethane foam filters can act as filtering materials and as an alternative to peat in wastewater treatment.

Peat Consumption by Country

Finland remains the largest peat consumer in the EU, accounting for approx. 50% of the total volume. Moreover, peat consumption in Finland exceeds the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany, fivefold. The third position in this ranking is occupied by Sweden, with a 10% share.

In value terms, the largest peat markets in the European Union are Finland ($217M), Ireland ($194M) and Germany ($190M), with a combined 45% share of the total market. These countries are followed by Sweden, France, the Netherlands and Poland, which together account for a further 26%.

The highest levels of peat per capita consumption are registered in Finland (1,700 kg per person), followed by Ireland (354 kg per person), Sweden (194 kg per person) and the Netherlands (66 kg per person), while the average per capita consumption of peat in the EU is estimated at 47 kg per person.

Peat Imports and Exports

After two years of growth, overseas purchases of peat decreased by -10.3% to 6.1M tonnes in 2019. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when imports increased by 9.2% year-to-year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 6.8M tonnes in 2018 and then declined in the following year. In value terms, peat imports dropped to $649M in 2019.

In 2019, the Netherlands (1.8M tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (1,002K tonnes), France (641K tonnes), Belgium (541K tonnes) and Italy (383K tonnes) represented the major importers of peat, together making up 71% of total imports. Poland (270K tonnes), Spain (202K tonnes), Lithuania (185K tonnes), the Czech Republic (170K tonnes), Austria (122K tonnes) and Hungary (99K tonnes) held a little share of total imports.

In value terms, the largest peat importing markets in the European Union were the Netherlands ($125M), France ($100M) and Germany ($93M), with a combined 49% share of the total imports. Italy, Belgium, Spain, Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Surging Global Steel Demand Outpaces Recovering Production

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Crude Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The beginning of 2021 saw a sharp increase in the steel demand, while metallurgical plants were still recovering from the operational downtime incurred during the lockdown. This market disbalance leads to an increase in steel prices. The recovery of the automotive sector and other downstream industries in 2020, at a faster pace than expected, generates the conditions for robust steel demand in the medium term. 

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, global steel demand, according to estimates from The World Steel Association, declined by ‑2.4% against the previous year. Countries worldwide were affected by this decline, but China saw demand increase by +8.0%. The Middle East (-19.0%), Africa (-16.0% ), the USMCA countries (-15.3%) and the European Union (‑15.2%) recorded the most significant annual slump in demand.

At the end of 2020, global industrial manufacturing started to recover, and in Q1 2021, the demand for steel from consuming industries began to exceed still readjusting market supply, leading to a surge in steel prices. The price of STEEL HRC FOB CHINA (ARGUS) on the London Metal Exchange surged from $685 (March 2021) to $791 per tonne (April 2021).

Lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in most countries experiencing a significant decline in production. In April 2020, the slump in EU steel alloy output amounted to -33.3% against April 2019, emerging into recovery only in November 2020 (+5.5% against November 2019). The stagnation seen in the downstream industries, including the automotive sector, contributed to the decline in production.

Global consumption is forecast to increase in 2021 by +4.1% year-on-year. The EU (+11.0%) and other European countries (+11.9%) are projected to see the fastest rates of consumption growth, spurred by a full recovery in the automotive and construction sectors, and other downstream industries.

In line with the Paris Agreement, modern metallurgical plants now recover waste gas emissions to curtail the discharge of greenhouse gases. Proactive research is now being conducted into low-carbon technologies, such as the use of electrolysis to recover iron ore and biomass as a substitution for coal, as well as hydrogen as a reducing agent. The current market growth will promote investment for energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies, against the planned introduction by the European Union of a carbon tax, resulting in the inevitable technological upgrading and modernization of steel smelting facilities.

China to Feature Strong Stable Demand for Steel while the U.S. to Remain the Leading Importer

The global market for raw steel and steel semi-finished products increased by 7.3% to $1,246.6B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2019.

China (995M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of consumption of raw steel and steel semi-finished products, accounting for 55% of total volume. Moreover, consumption of raw steel and steel semi-finished products in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (109M tonnes), ninefold. Japan (96M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.3% share (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, China ($826.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($189.5B). It was followed by Russia.

The countries with the highest levels of raw steel and steel semi-finished products per capita consumption in 2019 were Japan (752 kg per person), China (682 kg per person) and Germany (483 kg per person).

In 2019, the amount of raw steel and steel semi-finished products imported worldwide reduced to 55M tonnes, waning by -12.2% on the previous year. In general, imports saw a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 62M tonnes in 2018, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, imports of raw steel and steel semi-finished products shrank markedly to $30.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, imports saw a noticeable setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 26% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $40.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2019, the U.S. (7.3M tonnes), followed by Italy (4.8M tonnes), Indonesia (4.8M tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (3.4M tonnes), Thailand (3.1M tonnes), the Philippines (2.7M tonnes) and Belgium (2.5M tonnes) were the key importers of raw steel and steel semi-finished products, together committing 52% of total imports. The following importers – South Korea (2.2M tonnes), Turkey (1.7M tonnes), Egypt (1.5M tonnes), France (1.5M tonnes), Spain (1.2M tonnes) and Germany (1.1M tonnes) – together made up 17% of total imports.

In value terms, the U.S. ($4.9B), Italy ($2.6B) and Indonesia ($2.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 32% of global imports. Thailand, Taiwan (Chinese), the Philippines, Belgium, South Korea, France, Germany, Turkey, Spain and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Alternative Energy Regulation and the Covid-19 Pandemic Restrict Global Coal Market Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coal – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, the decline in the global coal market gathered momentum, against the Covid-19 pandemic. The low cost of natural gas, combined with the development of alternative energy sources and stricter environmental regulations, are pushing the coal energy sector into stagnation. In the medium term, only the metallurgical industry is set to see stable demand for coal.

Key Trends and Insights

Since 2019, global coal consumption has been in decline, against poor growth in the demand for electricity, low natural gas prices and the enhanced use of alternative sources of energy. Data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that, in 2019, coal-fired power production fell in the European Union by 23%, and in the USA by 17%.

In 2020, the European Union (-19%, -111 Мт) and the USA (-14%, -87 Mt), saw a significant decline in coal-fired power production. This was conditioned by the new ‘Green Deal’ aimed at the strategic reduction of carbon emissions.

In 2020, increased coal-fired electricity production was recorded only in China and ASEAN, where coal total consumption saw a growth of approx. 1.2%.

Global coal demand is set to decrease further by 2025, hampered by the new climate regulation initiatives, particularly, in the EU. Even the anticipated expansion of the coal sector in India could not alone shape the global demand for coal. China is reaching a plateau in terms of coal consumption and several countries committed to reduce coal consumption (Korea, Vietnam, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Egypt) in 2020.

The global consumption of metallurgical coal also fell by 3.2% in 2020, as a result of the decline in global steel production. Should the Covid-19 restrictions be completely lifted in 2021, alloy production is expected to recover, which is set to restore demand for coal.

China Remains the Largest Coal Consuming Country

China (4,570M tonnes) remains the largest coal-consuming country worldwide, accounting for 39% of total volume. Moreover, coal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1,053M tonnes), fourfold. The U.S. (644M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.5% share (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at -1.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.5% per year) and the U.S. (-4.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($483.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($145B). It was followed by the U.S.

The countries with the highest levels of coal per capita consumption in 2019 were South Africa (3.89 tonne per person), China (3.13 tonne per person) and Russia (3 tonne per person).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while coal per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

China (282M tonnes), India (241M tonnes), Japan (183M tonnes) and South Korea (141M tonnes) represented roughly 62% of total imports of coal in 2019. It was distantly followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (67M tonnes), mixing up a 4.9% share of total imports. Malaysia (38M tonnes), Turkey (30M tonnes), the Philippines (30M tonnes), Germany (29M tonnes), Viet Nam (25M tonnes), Thailand (24M tonnes), Russia (22M tonnes) and Brazil (21M tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, China ($24.6B), Japan ($19.3B) and India ($17.3B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 51% of global imports. South Korea, Taiwan (Chinese), Brazil, Malaysia, Germany, Turkey, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Thailand and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31% (IndexBox estimates).

Driven by rising demand for coal worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13,602M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Robust Demand for Wood Pulp and Construction Materials Buoys the Global Roundwood Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Industrial Roundwood – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global industrial roundwood market is estimated at a huge figure of approx. $312B, which equals to near 2B cubic meters. In 2020, despite a slowdown in the market growth due to the pandemic, the roundwood market is buoyed by robust global demand from the packaging and construction industries. The increase in online sales as a result of the pandemic has boosted the market for cardboard packaging and wooden pallets for shipping. In 2021, the decline in mortgage lending rates spurred the U.S. real estate market to record growth. Given the social isolation and working from home, the construction of new suburban single-family dwellings posts solid gains, leading to an increase in demand for lumber and wood-based panels, as well as for those used in furniture manufacturing. Similar trends are more or less relevant for many countries in the world.

Driven by increasing demand for industrial roundwood worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.4B cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Despite the strong performance of the downstream industries against the pandemic, the roundwood industry faced both pandemic-related and environmental challenges. In 2020, in addition to supply chain disruptions and reduced working hours for timber industry workers, wildfires have destroyed large areas of Australian and American forests. The European industry continued to suffer from beetle infestations which damage the roundwood harvests.

Increasingly, there are speculations that the rise in wildfires and beetle epidemic is caused by climate change and inappropriate forestry management in past. If the impact of climate change will be confirmed, the consequences of global warming could seriously threaten the industry with a decline in the raw material base in the long term.

Sustainability at all stages of the value chain is becoming a key long-term market trend. Agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions such as The European Green Deal, the Paris Climate Agreement and The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (concerning the environment chapter) should promote the development of a market for biodegradable and wood-based packaging. The European Council is developing a new forestry strategy with a key goal of ensuring sustainability due to effective afforestation, forest preservation and restoration in the EU.

Announced Limitations on Roundwood Exports from Russia to Shift Supply Chains on the Asian Market

A shift in the global roundwood market may appear after the announced possible ban on the export of coniferous logs and valuable hardwood logs in Russia in 2022. The Russian government is purposefully planning to reduce the export volume of unprocessed timber and export more value-added products. The consequences should affect, first of all, China, which should be able to look for new suppliers of softwood. This could lead to increased competition between Oceania, Europe and America in the global sawlog market. In the medium term, the replacement of roundwood with sawn timber from Russia may become another option for Chinese importers.

Global industrial roundwood exports amounted to 224M cubic meters in 2019. In value terms, industrial roundwood exports declined slightly to $16.2B (IndexBox estimates). New Zealand (42M cubic meters) and Russia (29M cubic meters) were the key exporters of industrial roundwood in 2019, resulting in near 19% and 13% of total exports, respectively. They were distantly followed by the Czech Republic (19M cubic meters), Germany (15M cubic meters), the U.S. (14M cubic meters) and Uruguay (12M cubic meters), together achieving a 27% share of total exports. In value terms, New Zealand ($2.2B), the U.S. ($1.7B) and Russia ($1.4B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 33% share of global exports.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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U.S. Agrees to Temporarily Suspend Tariffs on UK and EU Goods in Large Civil Aircraft Dispute

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In a joint statement released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (“USTR”), the U.S. and European Union (“EU”) have agreed to temporarily suspend the additional tariffs from the Large Civil Aircraft Dispute. Goods imported from EU countries, including dairy products and liquors, will temporarily not be subject to the additional 25 percent duties under Section 301. The temporary suspension will initially last four months. USTR has not yet announced a specific date when the suspension on tariffs for EU goods will begin. USTR plans to share that information in a forthcoming Federal Register notice.

Additionally, the USTR announced a similar temporary suspension of tariffs imposed on goods imported from the United Kingdom (“UK”) related to the Large Civil Aircraft Dispute. The temporary suspension began on March 4, 2021 and will remain in effect until at least July 2021.

As previously reported, the initial onslaught of duties occurred in October 2019 when the U.S. imposed duties on new European large civil aircrafts and 25 percent tariffs on agricultural and other products. In retaliation, in November 2020 the EU imposed $4 billion of tariffs on American products. In a statement, EU President von der Leyen sees this as a “fresh start” with the U.S. President von der Leyen also expressed that both countries are “committed to focus on resolving our aircraft disputes, based on the work our respective trade representatives. This is excellent news for businesses and industries on both sides of the Atlantic, and a very positive signal for our economic cooperation in the years to come.”

The UK government had suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods subject to tariffs on January 1, 2021. Given the current suspension of the tariffs, the UK government and USTR intend to use this time to focus on negotiating a settlement to the dispute and address challenges posed by new entrants to the civil aviation market.

________________________________________________________________

Emily Lyons is an attorney in Husch Blackwell LLP’s Washington, D.C. office.

Turner Kim is an Assistant Trade Analyst in Husch Blackwell LLP’s Washington D.C. office.

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France Consumes Most of Jam, Jelly, Puree And Paste in the EU

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Jams, Jellies, Puree And Pastes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the EU market for jams, jellies, puree and pastes decreased by -4.4% to $3.9B, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption saw a mild setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 7.3% year-to-year. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $4.5B. From 2014 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

France (578K tonnes) remains the largest jam, jelly, puree and paste consuming country in the European Union, comprising approx. 35% of total volume. Moreover, jam, jelly, puree and paste consumption in France exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (258K tonnes), twofold. The UK (169K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 10% share (IndexBox estimates).

In France, jam, jelly, puree and paste consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2019. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (+0.8% per year) and the UK (+2.9% per year).

In value terms, France ($1.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($592M). It was followed by the UK.

The countries with the highest levels of jam, jelly, puree and paste per capita consumption in 2019 were France (8.80 kg per person), Austria (6.28 kg per person) and Sweden (5.23 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Due to the introduction of restrictive measures against the spread of the pandemic, the HoReCa sector suffered from temporary closings and service limitations, which significantly reduced the demand for jams, jellies, puree and pastes. Retail sales were less damaged as the demand for food (including jams, jellies, puree and pastes) at retail outlets increased as consumers started to cook more at home and buy more storable products.

Despite this factor supported the demand, the market is expected to contract somewhat by the end of 2020 against the reduced demand from the HoReCa sector. In the medium term, the market is expected to grow more moderately, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to near 1.8M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

In 2019, production of jams, jellies, puree and pastes decreased by -1.2% to 1.7M tonnes, falling for the third consecutive year after five years of growth. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 3.3% y-o-y. The volume of production peaked at 1.8M tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, production remained at a lower figure. In value terms, jam, jelly, puree and paste production fell to $4.1B in 2019 estimated in export prices. In general, production, however, saw a mild downturn.

Production by Country

France (555K tonnes) remains the largest jam, jelly, puree and paste producing country in the European Union, comprising approx. 32% of total volume. In terms of production, France was followed by Germany (229K tonnes, or 13%) and Spain (146K tonnes, or 9%).

From 2012 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in France amounted to +1.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-0.4% per year) and Spain (+2.6% per year).

Exports in the EU

After seven years of growth, overseas shipments of jams, jellies, puree and pastes decreased by -8% to 661K tonnes in 2019. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 10% year-to-year. The volume of export peaked at 718K tonnes in 2018, and then dropped in the following year. In value terms, jam, jelly, puree and paste exports fell to $1.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The biggest shipments were from Italy (133K tonnes), France (98K tonnes), Belgium (84K tonnes), Germany (82K tonnes) and the Netherlands (65K tonnes), together accounting for 70% of total export. It was distantly followed by Poland (39K tonnes) and Spain (37K tonnes), together generating a 12% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($392M), Italy ($226M) and Germany ($209M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, together accounting for 54% of total exports. These countries were followed by Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland, which together accounted for a further 27%.

Poland saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2019, the export price for jams, jellies, puree and pastes in the European Union amounted to $2,304 per tonne, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 6.6% y-o-y. Over the period under review, export prices hit record highs at $2,471 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was France ($3,992 per tonne), while Poland ($1,524 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

sugar
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

With $4.5B of Exports, Brazil Remains the Largest Supplier to the Global Sugar Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sugar – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global sugar market rose to $105.3B in 2019, surging by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.9% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $117.5B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of sugar consumption in 2019 were Brazil (26M tonnes), India (25M tonnes) and China (11M tonnes), together accounting for 32% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Brazil, while sugar consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sugar markets worldwide were India ($11B), Brazil ($8.3B) and China ($7.6B), together accounting for 26% of the global market  (IndexBox estimates). The U.S., Russia, Germany, Thailand, Pakistan, Mexico, France and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

The countries with the highest levels of sugar per capita consumption in 2019 were Thailand (136 kg per person), Brazil (123 kg per person) and France (80 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of sugar per capita consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Brazil, while sugar per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of sugar production in 2019 were Brazil (42M tonnes), India (24M tonnes) and Thailand (13M tonnes), with a combined 41% share of global production. China, Pakistan, the U.S., Russia, Mexico, France, Germany, Australia and Guatemala lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of sugar production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Pakistan, while sugar production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Sugar Exports

In 2019, the amount of sugar exported worldwide shrank to 29M tonnes, which is down by -13.7% against the previous year’s figure. In general, exports continue to indicate a abrupt descent. Global exports peaked at 41M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, sugar exports declined to $10.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

In 2019, Brazil (16M tonnes) represented the key exporter of sugar, generating 55% of total exports. Thailand (3.8M tonnes) took a 13% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Australia (5.7%). The following exporters – Mexico (1,045K tonnes), South Africa (973K tonnes), Swaziland (747K tonnes), the Philippines (538K tonnes) and El Salvador (518K tonnes) – together made up 13% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to sugar exports from Brazil stood at -7.1%. At the same time, the Philippines (+34.9%), South Africa (+17.3%), El Salvador (+7.7%), Swaziland (+6.6%) and Thailand (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +34.9% from 2013-2019. By contrast, Mexico (-1.6%) and Australia (-7.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Brazil ($4.5B) remains the largest sugar supplier worldwide, comprising 42% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Thailand ($1.7B), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 9.3% share.

Export Prices by Country

The average sugar export price stood at $363 per tonne in 2019, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a noticeable reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 16% y-o-y. Over the period under review, average export prices attained the maximum at $472 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Australia ($597 per tonne), while Brazil ($281 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mostly negative trends in the export price figures; only in Mexico and Thailand, the prices practically returned to their outset levels.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

wines
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

USTR Increases Tariffs on Aircraft Parts and Certain Wines and Distilled Spirits from France and Germany

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Since October 18, 2019, the U.S. has imposed additional duties on various European origin goods (including aircraft, certain textiles and wearing apparel, hardware, cheeses, and other agricultural goods) due to the ongoing Large Civil Aircraft (LCA) dispute with the European Union (EU).

On December 30, 2020, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that in response to certain EU actions involving duties imposed on U.S. goods in related litigation at the World Trade Organization, the U.S. was adding LCA-dispute tariffs to certain products imported from the EU; specifically, certain aircraft manufacturing parts, non-sparkling wines, and cognacs and other grape brandies, but only if the goods are from France or Germany. All previously announced LCA-dispute tariffs remain in effect.

The additional duties for the newly listed goods will go into effect when entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time January 12, 2021.

The additional goods subject to LCA-dispute tariffs and their corresponding tariff provisions are as follows:

Additional goods (wine and spirits) from France and Germany subject to 25% tariff to duties effective January 12, 2021:

-Effervescent grape wine, in containers holding 2 liters or less (subject to subheading 2204.21.20).

-Tokay wine (not carbonated) not over 14% alcohol, in containers not over 2 liters (subject to subheading 2204.21.30).

-Marsala wine, over 14% vol. alcohol, in containers holding 2 liters or less (subject to subheading 2204.21.60).

-Grape wine, other than Marsala, not sparkling or effervescent, over 14% vol. alcohol, in containers holding 2 liters or less (subject to subheading 2204.21.80).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume <=14% in containers holding over 2 liters but not over 4 liters (subject to subheading 2204.22.20).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume >14% in containers holding over 2 liters but not over 4 liters (subject to subheading 2204.22.40).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume <=14% in containers holding over 4 liters but not over 10 liters (subject to subheading 2204.22.60).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume >14% in containers holding over 4 liters but not over 10 liters (subject to subheading 2204.22.80).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume <=14% in containers holding >10 liters (subject to subheading 2204.29.61).

-Wine of fresh grapes, other than sparkling wine, of an alcoholic strength by volume >14% in containers holding >10 liters (subject to subheading 2204.29.81).

-Grape must, nesoi, in fermentation or with fermentation arrested otherwise than by the addition of alcohol (subject to subheading 2204.30.00).

-Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc (grape brandy), other than Pisco and Singani, in containers each holding not over 4 liters, valued over $38 per proof liter (subject to subheading 2208.20.40**).

Additional goods (aircraft parts) from France and Germany subject to an additional 15% duty effective January 12, 2021:

-Fuselages and fuselage sections, wings and wing assemblies (other than wings having exterior surfaces of carbon composite material), horizontal stabilizers, and vertical stabilizers as defined in U.S. note 21(t), suitable for use solely or principally with new airplanes and other aircraft of an unladen weight over 30,000 kg as described in subheading 9903.89.05 (described in statistical reporting number 8803.30.0030) (subject to subheading 8803.30.00**).

USTR stated in its announcement that the additional LCA-dispute duties were being implemented “in a restrained way” to counter what is believed to be the unfair use of certain trade data. Specifically, the WTO authorized the U.S. to impose LCA-dispute tariffs on $7.5 billion of EU goods. Thereafter, the WTO authorized the EU in related litigation to impose tariffs affecting up to $4 billion in U.S. trade. When calculating the duty impact to achieve the permitted $4 billion, the EU used trade data from a time period (August 2019 – July 2020) during which trade was substantially diminished due to the COVID-19 public health emergency. As such, when the EU tariffs are applied to trade volumes in a more normal period, the resulting duties exceed the permitted $4 billion.

In response, the U.S. is mirroring the EU’s time period, the result being that current LCA-dispute tariffs applied to goods during that time period result in additional duties substantially less than the $7.5 billion authorized by the WTO.  Consequently, the USTR’s recently announced tariffs on additional goods from France and Germany are designed to raise the LCA-dispute duties on EU goods during the August 2019 – July 2020 time period to approximately $7.5 billion.

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Robert Stang is a Washington, D.C.-based partner with the law firm Husch Blackwell LLP. He leads the firm’s Customs group.

Emily Lyons is an attorney in Husch Blackwell LLP’s Washington, D.C. office.