Rising Demand in China Drives Grape Market in Asia-Pacific - Global Trade Magazine
  January 28th, 2020 | Written by

Rising Demand in China Drives Grape Market in Asia-Pacific

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  • The level of import price peaked at $2,366 per tonne in 2012.
  • China (14M tonnes) remains the largest grape producing country in Asia-Pacific, comprising approx. 66% of total volume.
  • The level of grape consumption peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.
  • Grape consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.9M tonnes), fivefold.

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Grapes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the grape market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $35.2B in 2018, going up by 5.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total market indicated strong growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last eleven-year period. The level of grape consumption peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in Asia-Pacific

The country with the largest volume of grape consumption was China (14M tonnes), accounting for 66% of total volume. Moreover, grape consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.9M tonnes), fivefold. Australia (1.8M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 8.2% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +7.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+5.5% per year) and Australia (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($21B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($4.7B). It was followed by Australia.

The countries with the highest levels of grape per capita consumption in 2018 were New Zealand (92 kg per person), Australia (71 kg per person) and Afghanistan (24 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Asia-Pacific

Driven by increasing demand for grape in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 29M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of grapes produced in Asia-Pacific stood at 21M tonnes, jumping by 6.1% against the previous year. The total output indicated a buoyant increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, grape production increased by +86.7% against 2007 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 with an increase of 18% year-to-year. The general positive trend in terms of grape output is largely conditioned by a resilient increase of the harvested area and slight growth in yield figures.

Production By Country in Asia-Pacific

China (14M tonnes) remains the largest grape producing country in Asia-Pacific, comprising approx. 66% of total volume. Moreover, grape production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (3.1M tonnes), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Australia (1.9M tonnes), with a 8.8% share.

In China, grape production increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+5.7% per year) and Australia (+1.8% per year).

Harvested Area in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the total area harvested in terms of grapes production in Asia-Pacific amounted to 1.3M ha, increasing by 4.6% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Yield in Asia-Pacific

The average grape yield totaled 16 tonne per ha in 2018, standing approx. at the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed over the period under review.

Exports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of grapes exported in Asia-Pacific amounted to 773K tonnes, growing by 11% against the previous year. Overall, grape exports continue to indicate prominent growth. In value terms, grape exports amounted to $1.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

China, Hong Kong SAR (201K tonnes), Afghanistan (176K tonnes), India (172K tonnes), and Australia (124K tonnes)  represented roughly 87% of total exports of grapes in 2018.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Afghanistan, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape supplying countries in Asia-Pacific were China, Hong Kong SAR ($369M), Australia ($286M) and India ($275M), with a combined 77% share of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the grape export price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $1,569 per tonne, coming down by -5.1% against the previous year. Overall, the grape export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 an increase of 13% against the previous year. In that year, the export prices for grapes reached their peak level of $1,821 per tonne. From 2012 to 2018, the growth in terms of the export prices for grapes remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Australia ($2,306 per tonne), while Afghanistan ($595 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of grapes imported in Asia-Pacific stood at 1.2M tonnes, growing by 15% against the previous year. Overall, grape imports continue to indicate buoyant growth. Over the period under review, grape imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. In value terms, grape imports totaled $2.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, China (277K tonnes) and China, Hong Kong SAR (238K tonnes) represented the major importers of grapes in Asia-Pacific, together generating 44% of total imports. Thailand (158K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 13% share, followed by Indonesia (11%), South Korea (5.6%) and Pakistan (4.6%). Japan (41K tonnes), the Philippines (35K tonnes), Malaysia (34K tonnes), Australia (29K tonnes), Viet Nam (27K tonnes) and Taiwan, Chinese (26K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Pakistan, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape importing markets in Asia-Pacific were China ($628M), China, Hong Kong SAR ($497M) and Thailand ($410M), with a combined 59% share of total imports. Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Japan, Malaysia, Australia, Taiwan, Chinese, Viet Nam and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Import Prices by Country

The grape import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $2,224 per tonne in 2018, going down by -2.7% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The level of import price peaked at $2,366 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Taiwan ($2,672 per tonne), while the Philippines ($1,625 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform