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Global Sorghum Production is Booming Due to Strong Demand in China

sorghum

Global Sorghum Production is Booming Due to Strong Demand in China

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sorghum – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2021, global sorghum production will grow by 5%, boosted by growing supplies to China. Sorghum imports to the country are expected to rise by 28% compared to the previous year, driven by the increasing demand for animal feed. Prices will continue to rise in line with other cereals, following accelerated food inflation. The advantage of sorghum as a more drought-tolerant crop will allow this product to compete seriously with corn and will further stimulate market expansion.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, global sorghum production is expected to increase by 5% y-o-y to 61.2M tonnes, thanks to the expansion of cropland and expected favorable weather conditions. The largest crop gains are expected in Argentina (+30% y-o-y), where the crop area increased by 27% y-o-y, as well as in the U.S. (+14% y-o-y) and Mexico (+17%), which expanded sorghum fields by +14% y-o-yand 4% respectively.

Global sorghum exports are expected to grow by 23% y-o-y, primarily driven by China’s continued massive grain purchases for animal feed. According to USDA forecasts, imports to China will increase by 28% y-o-y by the end of 2021 due to the increased demand for animal feed.

In the context of strong demand, prices for sorghum are expected to rise alongside other rising grains. Global food inflation is accelerating due to rising demand for food and animal feed, as well as the increased ethanol and renewable fuel production. In the U.S., a leading producer country that supplies 74% of sorghum to the global export market, the season-average farm price per product increased from $103 per tonne in September 2020 to $155 per tonne in April 2021.

According to forecasts by IndexBox, the sorghum market will continue to grow during the next decade, primarily due to the growing demand for livestock feed worldwide. An increase in demand for gluten-free products in a growing population may be an additional stimulus for market development since sorghum is the main component in such products. Sorghum can compete with corn as an alternative and more drought-resistant crop, which in the context of global climate change is also becoming a stimulus for the development of the sorghum market.

Global Sorghum Production

Global sorghum production stood at 58M tonnes in 2020, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2019. In value terms, sorghum production skyrocketed to $30.5B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The countries with the highest volumes of sorghum production in 2020 were the U.S. (8.4M tonnes), Nigeria (6.5M tonnes) and Ethiopia (5.6M tonnes), together comprising 35% of global production. From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in Ethiopia, while sorghum production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Sorghum Imports

In 2020, purchases abroad of sorghum increased by 22% to 6.6M tonnes, rising for the second consecutive year after six years of decline. In value terms, sorghum imports skyrocketed to $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China dominates sorghum import structure, reaching 4.8M tonnes, which was approx. 73% of total imports in 2020. It was distantly followed by Japan (382K tonnes), making up a 5.8% share of total imports. Mexico (232K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, China ($1.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported sorghum worldwide, comprising 71% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Japan ($85M), with a 5.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 4.4% share.

In 2020, the average sorghum import price amounted to $249 per tonne, approximately mirroring the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Mexico ($313 per tonne), while Spain ($205 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

garlic

Global Garlic Imports Surged But Record Chinese Exports Curb Price Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Garlic – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global garlic imports rose by 13% to 2.5M tonnes in 2020, boosted by the increased popularity of home cooking and a widespread reputation that the product helps to strengthen immunity. Indonesia remains the largest global importer, followed by Viet Nam and Malaysia. China dominates global garlic exports, supplying 89% of the total volume. Chinese manufacturers managed to ramp up exports which led to a drop in prices. 

Global Garlic Imports

In 2020, approx. 2.5M tonnes of garlic were imported worldwide; increasing by 13% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, garlic imports totaled $3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Indonesia (624K tonnes), distantly followed by Viet Nam (254K tonnes), Malaysia (118K tonnes) and Brazil (118K tonnes) represented the major importers of garlic, together making up 44% of total imports. The following importers – Bangladesh (103K tonnes), the U.S. (102K tonnes), Pakistan (101K tonnes), the Philippines (87K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (70K tonnes), Russia (59K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (53K tonnes), the Netherlands (46K tonnes) and the UK (41K tonnes) – together made up 26% of total imports.

In value terms, Indonesia ($460M), Viet Nam ($305M) and the U.S. ($235M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, with a combined 33% share of global imports. Brazil, Malaysia, Pakistan, the UK, the Netherlands, Russia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Pakistan saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

China dominates the global exports, supplying 89% of the total volume. Chinese garlic supplies hit record highs of near $2B which provides a solid base for the global surge in demand. The Indonesian market for imported garlic is almost entirely met by supplies from China.

The average garlic import price stood at $1,185 per tonne in 2020, falling by -7.1% against the previous year. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

ginger market

India Clashes with China in the Global Ginger Export Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Ginger – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In the wake of the pandemic, the ginger market has accelerated its growth as demand for foods with a reputation for immunity system health has soared to unprecedented heights. India, which almost tripled its export of ginger in 2020, may become a serious competitor to the main global supplier – China. The majority of the developed countries have increased the volume of imports, which, in the context of Covid restrictions and a shortage of container traffic, has led to an increase in prices for the product.

Key Trends and Insights

The pandemic contributed to the growth of the global ginger market of 2020 by 7.6% y-o-y to 4.5M tonnes. The increased focus on foods with a reputation for benefits to the immune system during the Covid-19 epidemic, as well as the rise in the popularity of Asian foodstuffs and condiments in Western countries, have been the main drivers for the increased demand for ginger.

China, with a volume of supplies of 578K tonnes, traditionally remains the world’s largest exporter of ginger, but in 2020 the country met swiftly growing competition from India, which tripled its exports to 102K tonnes. India is a leader in the production of ginger with a 45% share of the world output, which gives it every chance to seriously press China and other countries in the export market.

Ginger imports to Europe are growing rapidly amid the pandemic. In 2020, 197K tonnes were imported to the region, which is 13% more than the previous year. The leading European importer is the Netherlands, which accounts for 40% of total imports to the former European Union, with the volume of 79K tonnes, followed by the UK (15% or 29K tonnes) and Germany (14% or 28K tonnes). China remains the largest supplier to European countries, but due to the high EU requirements for quality, suppliers of organic ginger from Peru and Brazil are gaining an increasing share of this market.

The lack of containers and the high cost of shipping ginger in the global market remain key challenges at the moment. The rise in logistics costs led to an increase in the average world import price from $1.2 per kg in 2019 to $1.5 per kg in 2020. Additionally, the structure of the international supply of the product has changed – the volume of exported fresh ginger has slightly decreased, while the amount of dried and frozen ginger has grown.

Increased demand for ginger from a growing population should act as the main driver for the market, which is expected to reach 6.6M tonnes by 2030. Soft drinks and syrups containing ginger have become increasingly popular, which should further stimulate market growth.

Global Ginger Consumption

The global ginger market surged to $7.3B in 2020, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2020: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eight years.

India (1.9M tonnes) remains the largest ginger-consuming country worldwide, accounting for 43% of total volume. Moreover, ginger consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Nigeria (762K tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Nepal (307K tonnes), with a 6.9% share.

In India, ginger consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +11.9% over the period from 2012-2020. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Nigeria (+9.4% per year) and Nepal (+2.9% per year).

In value terms, India ($3.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Nigeria ($1.4B). It was followed by Indonesia.

Global Ginger Exports

In 2020, global ginger exports rose notably to 918K tonnes, with an increase of 11% against the year before. In general, total exports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last eight-year period. In value terms, ginger exports skyrocketed to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China was the largest exporter of ginger in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 578K tonnes, which was near 63% of total exports in 2020. It was distantly followed by India (102K tonnes), the Netherlands (62K tonnes) and Thailand (48K tonnes), together making up a 23% share of total exports. Brazil (32K tonnes), Peru (26K tonnes) and Nigeria (18K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, China ($719M) remains the largest ginger supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($156M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by India, with a 7.5% share.

Source: IndexBox Platform

solar panel

The Global Solar Panel Market to Skyrocket on the Shift Towards Renewable Energy

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global solar panel market accelerates along with the unabated shift towards renewable energy. China, the leader in solar panel exports, will enjoy robust foreign demand while the domestic purchases may slow due to tariff subsidies cut. The U.S. experiences a surge in solar power generation, thanks to the increasing affordability of solar cells and robust suburban construction. The EU, Asia-Pacific, Mexico and Australia are also emerging as the most promising markets due to the swift adoption of solar generation capacities.

Key Trends and Insights

The global solar panel market is expected to skyrocket and exceed $130B by 2030, driven by the increasing shift towards renewable energy worldwide. In 2020, more than 80% of all the world’s newly commissioned electric power was from renewable sources, accounting for near 260 GW of the new capacity. Of this amount, almost a half comes from solar generation. The electricity production from solar generators, according to a forecast by the International Energy Agency, will increase 4.5 times over by 2030, which will be the primary stimulus for the growth of the solar panel market.

The Chinese solar panel industry will continue to thrive amid soaring global demand, despite removing tariff subsidies for new domestic solar energy projects. In China, the world’s leading renewable energy producer, the new solar power capacity grew by 49 GW, which accounts for 36% of the total renewable capacity. Starting from 2021, electricity generated by new solar capacities is to be sold either at local coal-fired power prices or at market prices. This may hamper the domestic solar panel market expansion, but Chinese manufacturers may offset this by rising exports because they dominate global solar panel supplies.

The increased availability of solar panels in the U.S. enables to accelerate the market growth. In 2020, the U.S. commissioned 29 GW of new renewable energy sources, up 80% from a year earlier, of which 15 GW came from solar power. Over the past decade, the cost of solar systems in the United States has dropped by 70%, and the cost of solar-generated electricity has become attractive against alternative sources. In 2020, the base overnight cost of solar photovoltaic energy ranged from $1.248 to $1.612 per kW, which is significantly lower than the base overnight cost of conventional hydropower electricity of $2.769 per kW or geothermal one of $2.772 per kW.

The deployment of distributed solar photovoltaic systems in homes as well as for commercial and industrial buildings appears as a budding market segment worldwide. In the U.S., it is expected to grow rapidly on the backdrop of a boom in suburban single-family construction, highlighting a bright opportunity for investors.

Vietnam is emerging as a promising market, having solar energy capacity skyrocketed over the last two years. To a lesser extent, this is also relevant for the EU, especially Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium. Australia, Mexico, the UAE and Chile also feature amongst the leaders of the solar energy adoption race. All these markets are to be in the particular focus of global solar energy solution providers who seek new opportunities.

Imports

Global imports of solar cells and light-emitting diodes stood at $54.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 6.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $55.4B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2020, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The U.S. ($10.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported solar cells and light-emitting diodes worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($3.1B), with a 5.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 2.2% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of value in the U.S. totaled +15.1%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (-3.5% per year) and Mexico (+7.9% per year).

Exports

In 2020, solar cells and light-emitting diodes exports totaled $57.5B (IndexBox estimates).

China ($23.8B) remains the largest solar cells and light-emitting diodes supplier worldwide, comprising 41% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Malaysia ($5.6B), with a 9.7% share of global exports. It was followed by Japan, with a 6% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +12.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Malaysia (+14.6% per year) and Japan (-3.5% per year).

Source: IndexBox Platform

dry peas

Strong Demand for Livestock Feed Propels the Chinese Dry Peas Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Peas (Dry) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The Chinese dry peas market is becoming an attractive export destination for overseas suppliers. In 2020, China increased the volume of imports of dry peas by 45%, as the country is actively recovering its livestock reserves after an outbreak of swine fever and is in dire need of crops for animal feed. Against the background of rising grain prices, peas are becoming a more affordable alternative component in animal feed.

Key Trends and Insights

China remains the largest consumer of dry peas in the world with a 35.9% (IndexBox estimates) share of the global market. In 2020, the country’s consumption of dry peas jumped up by 20% due to increased use in animal feed. China continues to actively restore its livestock population after the swine fever epidemic, with the need for feed increasing significantly. Dry peas have become an excellent alternative replacement with the scarcity of corn and other more expensive grains such as soybeans and barley.

China is the second-largest pea-producing country. In 2020, the harvest in the domestic market exceeded the indicators of the previous year by 2.5% and reached 3M tonnes. Despite this, the country’s production cannot fully meet the growing domestic demand, and China remains the world’s leading importer of dry peas. In 2020, the country increased the volume of imports by 45% to 2.9M tonnes. About 94% of imported dry peas are sourced from Canada, and almost all of the remainder comes from the U.S. (4.3%).

In 2021-2022, Ukraine and Russia could challenge those leading suppliers in the Chinese import market, as pea yields are growing rapidly in these countries, and as work is underway on phytosanitary agreements to access the Chinese market.

The growing demand for food products in the context of an increasing population will remain a primary market driver. The demand for feed and fodder in China will further stimulate the market, but as the pig population recovers, the increase in demand in this segment will slow. Taking this into account, the market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of +2.8% and reach 7.7M tonnes by 2030.

Market Size

In 2020, approx. 5.9M tonnes of dry peas were consumed in China, picking up by 20% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, consumption recorded a resilient expansion.  Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume in 2020 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

For the third consecutive year, the Chinese dry peas market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 20% to $10.3B in 2020. In general, consumption posted a strong increase.

China’s Dry Peas Imports  by Country

In 2020, the volume of dry peas imported into China soared to 2.9M tonnes, rising by 45% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, dry peas imports skyrocketed to $821Min 2020.

In 2020, Canada (2.7M tonnes) was the main supplier of dry peas to China, with a 94% share of total imports. Moreover, dry peas imports from Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the U.S. (125K tonnes), more than tenfold.

The average import price stood at $282 per tonne in 2020, declining by -2.9% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was France ($345 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($278 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

cherry

Chilean Suppliers Thrive on the Chinese Cherry Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Cherries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Chinese cherry market relies on imports, as supplies from abroad constitute 70% of total cherry consumption in China. Over the past 6 years, cherry imports into China have doubled. The country became an attractive destination for exporters, with Chilean suppliers capturing the market.

Cherry Imports into China

In 2020, cherry imports into China rose sharply to 210K tonnes, with an increase of 7.9% against 2019. In value terms, imports skyrocketed to $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Chile (195K tonnes) was the main cherry supplier to China, accounting for a 92% share of total imports. Moreover, cherry imports from Chile exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the U.S. (8.8K tonnes), more than tenfold. From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume from Chile stood at +27.4%.

In value terms, Chile ($1.5B) constituted the largest supplier to China, comprising 91% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($79M), with a 4.8% share of total imports.

The average cherry import price stood at $7,812 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 8.1% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2020, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.4%. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($8,965 per tonne), while the price for Chile totaled $7,693 per tonne.

Source: IndexBox Platform

salt

The Global Salt Market Starts to Recover as the Chemical Sector Sees Signs of Renewed Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Salt – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, the global salt market experienced a decline, following a drop in output in the consumer industries. Despite this, stable growth in the demand for salt is expected in the future from the chemical and food sectors; the increasing use of salt in alternative energy is also a factor.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, almost every country experienced a drop in salt production; China was the exception, indicating a 1.7% growth against 2019 figures. In the EU countries, salt extraction decreased by approx. 16%; in the USA, it fell by 7%, in Canada, by 10%, in Russia, by 12% and in India, by 3%. Since salt is widely used for the production of chlorine and sodium chloride, the stagnation seen in the chemical industry in 2020 explains this decline in production.

In 2020, the fall in food production also resulted in reduced salt consumption in the sector. In the medium term, the demand for salt in the catering industry is scheduled to increase, the factors for growth being a rising population and improved living standards, as well as the possible lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in HoReCa and tourism.

‘Gourmet salt’ – unrefined sea salt available with various added flavors – is now increasingly popular. This salt gives food a distinct taste and pleasant aroma; the sodium content is lower, making it healthier than conventional table salt. As the increased focus is being given to items positioned as a ‘healthy product’, this trend is expected to continue as the pandemic wanes.

Alternative energy can also become a promising niche for salt. Sodium chloride-run batteries are now in active development. If successful, this could also become a long-term market driver.

China, the U.S. and India to Remain Key Salt Producers

In 2019, production of salt and pure sodium chloride increased by 1.6% to 298M tonnes, rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. In value terms, salt production fell modestly to $33.6B in 2019 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2019 (IndexBox estimates).

The countries with the highest volumes of salt production in 2019 were China (67M tonnes), the U.S. (42M tonnes) and India (29M tonnes), together comprising 46% of global production. These countries were followed by Germany, Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Egypt, the Netherlands, France and Turkey, which together accounted for a further 29% (IndexBox estimates).

In 2019, India (13M tonnes), distantly followed by Chile (8.6M tonnes), Canada (5.2M tonnes), Germany (4.4M tonnes), the Netherlands (4.2M tonnes) and Egypt (3.9M tonnes) were the key exporters of salt and pure sodium chloride, together creating 65% of total exports. The following exporters – Mexico (2.4M tonnes), Belarus (2M tonnes), China (1.6M tonnes), Tunisia (1.5M tonnes), Spain (1.4M tonnes), the U.S. (1M tonnes) and Ukraine (1M tonnes) – together made up 18% of total exports.

In value terms, the largest salt supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($287M), Germany ($268M) and India ($237M), with a combined 26% share of global exports. Canada, the U.S., Chile, Egypt, Spain, China, Belarus, Tunisia, Mexico and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

graphite

The Rising Electric Vehicle Industry to Drive the Global Natural Graphite Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Graphite (Natural) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, most countries suspended mines since the pandemic started. However, natural graphite production is projected to grow worldwide, driven by increasing demand from the electric vehicle industry.

Key Trends and Insights

Global natural graphite production in 2020 is estimated to be 15% lower than in 2019 (IndexBox estimates). In most countries, mining has been suspended during the pandemic.

The development of the electric vehicle industry is expected to become the main driver of growth in the natural graphite market, as graphite is the main component of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles. According to the Electric Vehicle World Sales Database, the fastest‑growing EV sales in 2020 were in Europe (+ 137% YoY), the US (+ 4%), and China (+ 12%), where the governments subsidize the industry. China’s share of the global electric car market is over 50%. China, the USA, and the EU are the world’s leading lithium-ion battery manufacturers and, therefore, the most promising markets for natural graphite.

Another steadily developing niche is the use of natural graphite as a filler in the plastic industry. China has a dominant market position concerning the global consumption of graphite fillers for plastics.

The market performance is forecast to increase, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2019 to 2030, projected to bring the market volume to 1.4M tonnes by the end of 2030.

China to Remain the Key Consumer and Exporter of Natural Graphite

China, with 465K tonnes, remains the largest graphite-consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 42% of total volume. Moreover, graphite consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Japan (129K tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (79K tonnes), with a 7.3% share.

In China, graphite consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -3.9% over the period from 2012-2019. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (+5.4% per year) and India (+7.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($422M) led the market alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Japan ($114M). Brazil followed it.

The countries with the highest levels of graphite per capita consumption in 2019 were Japan (1,010 kg per 1000 persons), South Korea (804 kg per 1000 persons), and Canada (788 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable growth rate in terms of graphite per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Canada, while graphite per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

China dominates the graphite export structure, accounting for 344K tonnes, which was approx. 65% of total exports in 2019. It was distantly followed by Madagascar (46K tonnes), creating an 8.7% share of total exports. Germany (19K tonnes), Brazil (19K tonnes), Canada (13K tonnes), Mexico (11K tonnes), Norway (11K tonnes), and the Netherlands (9.1K tonnes) held a minor share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2019. At the same time, Madagascar (+48.6%), the Netherlands (+19.6%), and Germany (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Madagascar emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported globally, with a CAGR of +48.6% from 2012-2019. Norway experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Canada (-4.0%), Brazil (-6.9%), and Mexico (-8.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Madagascar (+8 p.p.) and China (+2.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened their positions in global exports, while Canada, Mexico, and Brazil saw their shares reduced by -1.8%, -3%, and -4% from 2012 to 2019, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($353M) remains the largest graphite supplier worldwide, comprising 59% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($37M), with a 6.2% share of global exports. It was followed by Madagascar, with a 5.5% share.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Asia-Pacific

The Vegetable Market in Asia-Pacific to Continue Robust Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Vegetable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

For the seventh consecutive year, the Asia-Pacific vegetable market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 2.9% to $785.6B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Consumption by Country

China (622M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of vegetable consumption, comprising approx. 68% of total volume. Moreover, vegetable consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (170M tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Viet Nam (18M tonnes), with a 2% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+2.0% per year) and Viet Nam (+4.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($536.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($92.9B). It was followed by Viet Nam.

In 2019, the highest levels of vegetable per capita consumption was registered in China (427 kg per person), followed by Viet Nam (187 kg per person), India (124 kg per person) and Bangladesh (95 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of vegetable was estimated at 216 kg per person.

Market Forecast to 2030

Vegetables constitute one of the world’s basic food items; their production and consumption are widespread almost everywhere in the world. Vegetables are consumed in both fresh and processed form, as ingredients, canned food, etc. The demand for vegetables, therefore, mainly depends on the population growth and its dietary requirements; it is also determined to a certain extent by local household income, as vegetables constitute a staple dietary component. However, as incomes rise from the average figure and above, vegetable consumption is likely to increase at a slower rate than the consumption of more expensive food items (e.g. meat).

Since vegetables constitute staple food items, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the demand should not lead to a sharp fall in consumption. Moreover, since most of the common vegetables are grown locally, the risk of the disruption of established supply chains including foreign growers, food handling and packaging intermediaries, as well as the distributor sector, due to asynchronous quarantine measures in different countries, will be less relevant. However, for imported vegetables, this could be a factor that hampers the market growth.

Over 2020-2021, accordingly, the market is set to grow slowly, driven by population growth and the demand for food. In the medium term, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend driven by increasing demand for vegetables. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,162M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, after four years of growth, there was a decline in supplies from abroad of vegetables, when their volume decreased by -0.5% to 7.5M tonnes. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 7.5M tonnes in 2018 and then dropped modestly in the following year. In value terms, vegetable imports shrank modestly to $4.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

Malaysia (1,270K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (856K tonnes), Japan (775K tonnes) and Indonesia (756K tonnes) represented roughly 49% of total imports of vegetables in 2019. Singapore (476K tonnes) held a 6.4% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Thailand (5.7%), Sri Lanka (5.4%) and Bangladesh (4.7%). Nepal (304K tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (269K tonnes), Pakistan (261K tonnes), South Korea (261K tonnes) and Afghanistan (208K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bangladesh, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vegetable importing markets in Asia-Pacific were Japan ($742M), Indonesia ($609M) and Malaysia ($584M), together accounting for 44% of total imports. These countries were followed by Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan (Chinese), South Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Nepal, which together accounted for a further 46%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

export control

UNPACKING US-CHINA SANCTIONS AND EXPORT CONTROL REGULATIONS: THE US “ENTITY LIST”

This is the third in a series of articles by Eversheds Sutherland partners Ginger Faulk and Jeff Bialos explaining the legal and regulatory impacts of certain recent US sanctions and export control actions targeting various Chinese entities. Each article explains the regulatory context of the recent rules. Recognizing that this is a highly charged political topic, the article does not condone or promote any governmental actions discussed here but is only explanatory in nature.

If the first time you ever heard of the US “Entity List” was in March 2016, when subsidiaries of mobile telecommunications equipment manufacturer ZTE Corporation were listed, or in March 2017, when ZTE agreed to an $892,360,064 penalty and settlement agreement in order to secure its removal from the list, you are probably not alone. That 2016 listing had to do with allegations of evasion of US sanctions against North Korea and Iran. More recent Entity List designations have derived not only from US economic sanctions but also cite to various other types of US allegations or policy concerns.

In the first article of this series, we discussed US export controls applicable to Huawei as a result of its designation on the Entity List in May 2019. In this article, we delve into the background and regulatory context of the list itself, as compared to other US sanctions lists, and discuss ways it has been used in the last four years under the Trump Administration.

1. What is the Entity List and What are Its Origins?

The Bureau of Industry and Security (“BIS”) at the US Department of Commerce administers US export controls pursuant to the Export Administration Regulations (“EAR”). The EAR generally controls, and in some cases, requires licenses for, exports on the basis of the type of product, the country of export and the reasons for control, e.g. Anti-Terrorism, Nonproliferation, National Security, etc. In contrast, the Entity List imposes comprehensive export controls applicable to particular foreign entities due to specific policy concerns.

The US Entity List was established in 1997. It initially focused on identifying the public entities at risk of causing the diversion of exported items in support of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Since its initial publication, however, the purpose of the Entity List has been considerably expanded to encompass the identification and designation of foreign entities and other persons “reasonably believed to be involved, or to pose a significant risk of being or becoming involved, in activities contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States.” A committee (known as the “ERC”) composed of the US Departments of Commerce (Chair), State, Defense, Energy and Treasury adds persons to the Entity List by majority vote.

Once an entity is added to the list, it generally follows that exports or re-exports of goods, technology or software (“items”) that are “subject to the EAR” require an export license issued by BIS. As a result, the export and re-export of not only military or dual-use items but all categories of items are subject to a licensing requirement (of course, to the extent that they are deemed to be subject to the jurisdiction of US export controls). Notably, the Commerce Department’s policy is generally one of “presumption of denial” for these types of license applications unless indicated otherwise in the company’s listing.

Jurisdictionally, the ban applies also to non-US persons to the extent that those persons deal in subject US items. Significantly, items “subject to the EAR” includes not only US-origin items and items exported from the US but also non-US-origin items that contain more than a minimal (“de minimis”)  level of controlled US-origin content. Since a licensing requirement generally applies to exports or re-exports of any item to an Entity List entity, this means that any type of US content or component whatsoever, provided it is of sufficient value as compared to the overall fair-market value of the finished item (25% for non-embargoed countries, including China), could cause an item manufactured outside of the US item to be “subject to the EAR” and therefore requiring a license for export or re-export to an Entity List entity.

2. The Entity List and China

Until 2012, there were fewer than 30 Chinese entities on the Entity List. Before President Trump’s 2017 Inauguration, fewer than 100 Chinese entities had ever been listed on the Entity List over its 23-year history. Since then, however, more than 200 Chinese companies have been added to the Entity List, making export controls one of many contentious issues in recent US-China relations. Perhaps most notable was the May 2019 listing of Huawei and its 114 non-US affiliates – an enterprise which recently took the place of Samsung as the world’s largest mobile phone manufacturer (as addressed in our earlier article). More recently, the US added a number of Chinese state-owned enterprises to the Entity List on the basis of their alleged support in advancing Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Further, over the last year, more than 38 individuals and entities were added for reasons related to their alleged use of forced labor in the Xinjiang province of China.

One might ask why the US Commerce Department would use the same export control list to address so many varied types of issues. And does it make sense to designate under export controls companies that are the producers of raw materials such as cotton and textile producers in Xinjiang?

The answer lies both in the designation process and in the intended impacts of an Entity List designation. As noted, the ERC is an interagency committee represented by multiple US government departments. Fundamentally, it affords the ERC, the interagency charged with adding companies to the list, the flexibility to address certain conduct by such entities in a more targeted and flexible fashion – as it did with respect to Huawei. In this regard, an Entity List designation does not impose the same outright ban on all commercial and financial dealings as a designation on the US Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals List. It also is intended to signal to industry to use care when doing business with these entities.

In addition to the Entity List, BIS also maintains a Denied Persons List of persons or entities that are the subject of an export denial order. For example, after deciding that ZTE failed to fulfill its commitments under the 2017 settlement by which it secured its removal from the Entity List, BIS issued a denial order in June 2018 that exceeded the terms of the original Entity Listing by also preventing ZTE from directly or indirectly participating in any way in any transaction involving an item subject to the EAR. That denial order was removed following discussions between the Trump Administration and the Chinese government in July 2018.

3. Can a party seek removal from the Entity List?

The ERC also reviews requests for removal from the Entity List. To be removed, the person or entity must submit a request to the chairman of the ERC. In making a determination, the ERC will look favorably upon an entity’s cooperation with the US government and future compliance assurances. The ERC’s decision is final and cannot be appealed as an administrative matter.

4. Conclusion

Recently, the US has made frequent use of the Entity List to target Chinese companies over varied national security concerns. In response, China has introduced its own “Unreliable Entity List” regime, under which foreign entities or individuals that boycott supplies to Chinese companies for non-commercial reasons may be listed. It remains to be seen whether the US Commerce Department will continue to make such an expansive use of the Entity List under the Biden Administration.

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Eversheds Sutherland associate Vedia Biton Eidelman was a contributing author to this article.

Ginger T. Faulk, partner at Eversheds Sutherland, represents multinational companies in matters involving US government regulation of foreign trade and investment. She has extensive experience advising and representing global companies, counseling clients in matters arising under US sanctions, export controls, import and other national security and foreign policy trade-related regulations.

Jeffrey P.  Bialos, partner at Eversheds Sutherland, assists clients in making multi-faceted business decisions, structuring transactions and complying with complex regulatory requirements. A former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Industrial Affairs, he brings deep experience in defense, homeland security and national security matters, including antitrust, export controls, foreign investment, industrial security, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and mergers and acquisitions, and procurement.