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Africa’s Palm Oil Market – Foreign Suppliers Benefit From Resilient Market Growth

palm oil market

Africa’s Palm Oil Market – Foreign Suppliers Benefit From Resilient Market Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Palm Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The palm oil market size in Africa is estimated at $8.2B in 2018, an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The total market indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil consumption increased by +9.3% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the market value increased by 24% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the palm oil market attained its peak figure level at $9.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of palm oil consumption in 2018 were Nigeria (1.2M tonnes), Egypt (959K tonnes) and Kenya (705K tonnes), with a combined 31% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Tanzania, Ghana, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Mozambique, Uganda, Togo and Cameroon, which together accounted for a further 42%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of palm oil consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Djibouti, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil markets in Africa were Nigeria ($861M), Egypt ($626M) and Tanzania ($559M), with a combined 25% share of the total market. Kenya, Cameroon, Ghana, Djibouti, South Africa, Togo, Uganda, Mozambique and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In 2018, the highest levels of palm oil per capita consumption was registered in Djibouti (431 kg per person), followed by Togo (40 kg per person), Ghana (18 kg per person) and Kenya (14 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of palm oil was estimated at 7.09 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of the palm oil per capita consumption in Djibouti stood at +17.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Togo (+6.9% per year) and Ghana (+3.6% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Africa

Driven by increasing demand for palm oil in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

The palm oil production amounted to 2.4M tonnes in 2018, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, palm oil production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 3.7% y-o-y. The volume of palm oil production peaked at 2.5M tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil production stood at $2.1B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, palm oil production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 9.7% year-to-year. In that year, palm oil production reached its peak level of $2.8B. From 2012 to 2018, palm oil production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of palm oil production in 2018 were Nigeria (739K tonnes), Cote d’Ivoire (426K tonnes) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (410K tonnes), together accounting for 65% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of palm oil production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 462K tonnes of palm oil were exported in Africa; picking up by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil exports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil exports attained their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, palm oil exports totaled $355M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil exports increased by +29.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 33% y-o-y. Over the period under review, palm oil exports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Cote d’Ivoire (200K tonnes) was the major exporter of palm oil, making up 43% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Ghana (80K tonnes), Kenya (59K tonnes) and Seychelles (45K tonnes), together creating a 40% share of total exports. South Africa (15K tonnes), Senegal (13K tonnes), Togo (9.5K tonnes) and Liberia (8.9K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Cote d’Ivoire increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Liberia (+31.6%), Ghana (+23.8%), Senegal (+21.7%), Seychelles (+19.8%), Togo (+13.3%), Kenya (+4.9%) and South Africa (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Liberia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in Africa, with a CAGR of +31.6% from 2007-2018. While the share of Cote d’Ivoire (+24 p.p.), Ghana (+16 p.p.), Seychelles (+8.3 p.p.), Kenya (+5.2 p.p.), Senegal (+2.4 p.p.), Liberia (+1.8 p.p.) and Togo (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest palm oil markets in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($133M), Ghana ($73M) and Kenya ($46M), together accounting for 71% of total exports. Seychelles, South Africa, Senegal, Togo and Liberia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Among the main exporting countries, Liberia recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the palm oil export price in Africa amounted to $769 per tonne, jumping by 2.1% against the previous year. Overall, the palm oil export price, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when the export price increased by 20% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for palm oil attained their peak figure at $1,084 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was South Africa ($1,021 per tonne), while Cote d’Ivoire ($665 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the palm oil imports in Africa stood at 7.1M tonnes, surging by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil imports continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, palm oil imports totaled $4.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil imports increased by +7.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil imports attained their maximum at $5.8B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Egypt (968K tonnes), Kenya (764K tonnes), Tanzania (648K tonnes), Ghana (481K tonnes), South Africa (473K tonnes), Nigeria (425K tonnes), Djibouti (419K tonnes), Uganda (343K tonnes), Mozambique (342K tonnes) and Togo (320K tonnes) represented roughly 73% of total imports of palm oil in 2018. Algeria (198K tonnes) and Angola (178K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Nigeria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil importing markets in Africa were Egypt ($592M), Kenya ($505M) and Tanzania ($455M), together comprising 32% of total imports. Ghana, Djibouti, South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Mozambique, Togo, Angola and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 45%.

Nigeria experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the palm oil import price in Africa amounted to $673 per tonne, declining by -10.5% against the previous year. In general, the palm oil import price continues to indicate a mild decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 29% y-o-y. The level of import price peaked at $1,038 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Angola ($806 per tonne) and Djibouti ($746 per tonne), while Egypt ($611 per tonne) and South Africa ($627 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Mozambique

Mozambique Should Put Privinvest Boats into Operation

The next several months will be critical for Mozambique. A peace agreement signed in August between Frelimo and Renamo, its ruling and opposition parties, has set the stage for national elections on October 15. “Free and fair elections,” with results accepted by all, would bolster national reconciliation in this fragile country and would be a major step away from years of low-level conflict and acrimony. Successful elections would also build momentum for Mozambique to reach its economic potential.

One of the world’s poorest countries, Mozambique suffered from years of civil war beginning soon after its 1975 independence from Portugal. One million Mozambicans died. Earlier this year, Mozambique was hammered by two devastating cyclones. While there is hope for economic progress — the country enjoys abundant natural resources — Mozambicans will need Frelimo and Renamo to overcome their bloody past and work together, whichever party wins the election.

One area of potential cooperation is securing the country’s rich but vulnerable coastline.

Earlier this decade, the Frelimo government committed to invest some $2 billion into boats and related maritime equipment to police Mozambique’s rich fisheries, which are being illegally exploited by China and others. Another aim was to develop Mozambique’s own fishing and maritime industries, including through ship repair and building. Since then, global energy giants have committed tens of billions of dollars to developing the country’s large offshore natural gas fields. This development makes securing its coastal region all the more important for Mozambique.

Unfortunately, this effort fell apart. The international shipbuilder Privinvest, supplier to some 40 navies, delivered over 60 boats, equipment and support systems. Yet these assets remain mostly unused. Almost two dozen former Mozambican government officials, including the then-president’s son, have been charged with corruption that sunk this project. Sadly, this isn’t unusual. Transparency International labels Mozambique’s corruption as “endemic,” having cost the country nearly $5 billion between 2002 and 2014.

Without these boats in use — many are literally rusting in dock — Mozambique is doing little to protect its coast against continued illegal fishing and other harmful activities. No local fishing industry is being built. The is a major lost opportunity. Despite having “great growth potential,” it should be no surprise that fisheries in Mozambique are an “under-performing sector,” according to the World Bank. The bank also has identified “strengthening governance and management” as a key goal in developing Mozambique’s coastal economy.

The new Mozambique government that takes power after the elections should make putting these boats into the water a priority. They are simply too valuable a resource to be wasted.  Overcoming this scandal and making strides to protect and develop the country’s ocean wealth for the benefit of all Mozambicans would send a powerful signal that the country is on the right track. It would also be a tangible example that Mozambique is overcoming its devastating legacy of corruption, which would help attract badly needed foreign investment.

Effectively deploying these maritime assets would require Frelimo and Renamo to shift from the campaign and to work for the common good. The new government should figure out what went wrong but, more importantly, look ahead at what needs to go right to fix the problem. Private operators would probably be best to replace the defunct state-run companies set up to operate the boats; business consultants could help figure out the best way forward. International donors and others would likely want to help recover these fixed costs.

Too often, democracies, both young and more established, suffer from a “winner-take-all” mindset that stifles cooperation and progress. Mozambican politicians, with years of violent conflict, are particularly tested. Unless Frelimo and Renamo cooperate to solve problems, setting aside their hostility, democracy will sputter, and the country will backslide. In that case, coastal problems would only worsen.

Pope Francis just visited Mozambique. He urged “hope, peace, and reconciliation,” praising the peace deal and personal courage shown by Frelimo President Filipe Nyusi and Renamo leader Ossufo Momade. Both men face hard-liner opposition within their parties. Hopefully, this spirit of cooperation and reconciliation will grow in Mozambique.

The new Mozambique government will face many challenges. Expectations by Mozambicans run high, especially with the development of natural gas. Putting idle boats and other maritime assets to work to protect and responsibly develop the country’s natural wealth would be an excellent way to help meet these challenges.

_______________________________________________________________

Tom Sheehy is a former staff director of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives.

plantain

Africa’s Plantain Market to Reach Over 30M Tonnes by 2025

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Plantains – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain consumption in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of plantain per capita consumption in 2018 were Cameroon (197 kg per person), Ghana (141 kg per person) and Uganda (68 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for plantain in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

The plantain production stood at 25M tonnes in 2018, picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, plantain production attained its peak figure volume in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of plantain output was largely conditioned by a conspicuous increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain production in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

The plantain harvested area amounted to 4.2M ha in 2018, growing by 3.7% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to plantain production reached its peak figure at 4.3M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Yield in Africa

The average plantain yield amounted to 5.8 tonne per ha in 2018, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the plantain yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when yield increased by 1.6% y-o-y. The level of plantain yield peaked at 5.8 tonne per ha in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports in Africa

The exports totaled 99K tonnes in 2018, dropping by -5.8% against the previous year. Overall, plantain exports continue to indicate an abrupt decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 27% year-to-year. The volume of exports peaked at 181K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, plantain exports amounted to $45M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, plantain exports continue to indicate a drastic descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 13% year-to-year. The level of exports peaked at $85M in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Mozambique (38K tonnes) and Cote d’Ivoire (26K tonnes) were the main exporters of plantains in Africa, together making up 65% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Sudan (14K tonnes) and South Africa (12K tonnes), together committing a 27% share of total exports. The following exporters – Cameroon (3.2K tonnes) and Ghana (2.9K tonnes) – each accounted for a 6.1% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Cote d’Ivoire, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plantain markets in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($12M), Sudan ($11M) and Mozambique ($11M), together accounting for 76% of total exports.

Sudan experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain export price in Africa amounted to $454 per tonne, growing by 4.8% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for plantains attained their maximum at $485 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Cameroon ($850 per tonne), while Ghana ($203 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cameroon, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

The imports totaled 179K tonnes in 2018, picking up by 11% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, plantain imports increased by +20.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, plantain imports totaled $51M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

South Africa was the key importing country with an import of about 119K tonnes, which resulted at 66% of total imports. Senegal (29K tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Mali (17K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total imports. Botswana (5.1K tonnes) and Algeria (3.1K tonnes) occupied a little share of total imports.

Imports into South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Senegal (+19.5%) and Mali (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +19.5% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Botswana (-2.5%) and Algeria (-16.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Senegal and Mali increased by +46%, +14% and +4.6% percentage points, while Algeria (-11.4 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($27M) constitutes the largest market for imported plantains in Africa, comprising 53% of total plantain imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Senegal ($13M), with a 25% share of total imports. It was followed by Botswana, with a 6.4% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Africa totaled +9.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Senegal (+22.9% per year) and Botswana (-3.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain import price in Africa amounted to $284 per tonne, coming down by -1.9% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain import price continues to indicate a perceptible setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the import price increased by 12% year-to-year. The level of import price peaked at $421 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Algeria ($1,017 per tonne), while Mali ($64 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Algeria, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

maize

African Maize Market Reached $35.1B in 2018, Driven by Rising Demand in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the maize market in Africa amounted to $35.1B in 2018, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize consumption in 2018 were South Africa (16M tonnes), Egypt (16M tonnes) and Nigeria (11M tonnes), with a combined 42% share of total consumption. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Algeria, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Uganda and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of maize per capita consumption in 2018 were South Africa (283 kg per person), Zambia (219 kg per person) and Malawi (183 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Africa

Driven by increasing demand for maize in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 123M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

In 2018, the production of maize in Africa totaled 87M tonnes, going up by 6.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. The volume of maize production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of maize output was largely conditioned by resilient growth of the harvested area and a modest increase in yield figures.

In value terms, maize production stood at $31.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when production volume increased by 31% year-to-year. In that year, maize production attained its peak level of $31.9B. From 2015 to 2018, maize production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize production in 2018 were South Africa (18M tonnes), Nigeria (11M tonnes) and Ethiopia (8.9M tonnes), with a combined 44% share of total production. Egypt, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Uganda, Mali, Kenya, Cameroon and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

In 2018, approx. 42M ha of maize were harvested in Africa; picking up by 4.3% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when harvested area increased by 9.3% y-o-y. The level of maize harvested area peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Yield in Africa

The average maize yield stood at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2018, increasing by 1.8% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the maize yield reached its peak figure level at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2018, yield remained at a lower figure.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize exported in Africa amounted to 2.9M tonnes, falling by -6% against the previous year. In general, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2009 with an increase of 81% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 3.4M tonnes in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, maize exports totaled $615M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a mild expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 81% y-o-y. In that year, maize exports reached their peak of $1.1B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of maize exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2018, South Africa (2.2M tonnes) was the major exporter of maize, committing 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Uganda (336K tonnes), generating a 12% share of total exports. The following exporters – Zambia (113K tonnes), Tanzania (82K tonnes) and Burkina Faso (81K tonnes) – together made up 9.6% of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.0% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Tanzania (+20.0%), Burkina Faso (+11.9%) and Uganda (+10.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in Africa, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Zambia (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania and Burkina Faso increased by +52%, +7.7%, +2.5% and +2% percentage points, while Zambia (-2.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced.

In value terms, South Africa ($452M) remains the largest maize supplier in Africa, comprising 73% of total maize exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uganda ($70M), with a 11% share of total exports. It was followed by Zambia, with a 6.3% share.

In South Africa, maize exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Uganda (+9.5% per year) and Zambia (-3.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize export price in Africa amounted to $214 per tonne, falling by -6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize export price continues to indicate a drastic deduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when the export price increased by 15% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for maize reached their peak figure at $360 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($345 per tonne), while Burkina Faso ($145 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zambia, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize imported in Africa amounted to 20M tonnes, growing by 2.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports increased by +18.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, maize imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, maize imports totaled $3.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated moderate growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports decreased by -14.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 40% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked at $4.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Egypt was the major importer of maize in Africa, with the volume of imports amounting to 9M tonnes, which was approx. 46% of total imports in 2018. Algeria (4.1M tonnes) held a 21% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Morocco (12%) and Tunisia (5%). Libya (749K tonnes), Kenya (530K tonnes) and Senegal (381K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to maize imports into Egypt stood at +6.6%. At the same time, Kenya (+16.3%), Senegal (+13.2%), Algeria (+5.5%), Tunisia (+4.3%), Libya (+3.4%) and Morocco (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +16.3% from 2007-2018. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Morocco and Tunisia increased by +23%, +9.4%, +2.2%, +2% and +1.8% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Egypt ($1.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported maize in Africa, comprising 44% of total maize imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Algeria ($723M), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Morocco, with a 11% share.

In Egypt, maize imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Algeria (+3.1% per year) and Morocco (-0.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize import price in Africa amounted to $181 per tonne, declining by -8.9% against the previous year. Overall, the maize import price continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the import prices for maize attained their peak figure at $280 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Kenya ($224 per tonne) and Senegal ($217 per tonne), while Tunisia ($160 per tonne) and Libya ($164 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

african sausage

Africa’s Sausage Market Posts Third Consecutive Year of Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Sausages And Similar Products Of Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the sausage market in Africa amounted to $6B in 2018, growing by 9.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

In general, sausage consumption continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016, with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The level of sausage consumption peaked at $7.4B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in Africa

In 2018, sausage production in Africa amounted to 2M tonnes, coming down by -3.1% against the previous year.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of sausages and similar products of meat exported in Africa amounted to 12K tonnes, jumping by 2.3% against the previous year. The total exports indicated a prominent growth from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the sausage exports increased by +14.3% against 2016 indices.

In value terms, sausage exports totaled $21M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, sausage exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013, when exports increased by 16% y-o-y. In that year, sausage exports attained their peak of $30M. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of sausage exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in sausage exports structure, amounting to 10K tonnes, which was near 86% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Kenya (1.2K tonnes), generating 9.8% share of total exports.

South Africa was also the fastest growing in terms of the sausages and similar products of meat exports, with a CAGR of +9.1% from 2008 to 2018. Kenya experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of South Africa (-50.2%) decreased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($16M) remains the largest sausage supplier in Africa, comprising 78% of total sausage exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Kenya ($3.5M), with a 17% share of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the sausage export price in Africa amounted to $1,793 per tonne, waning by -12.4% against the previous year. In general, the sausage export price continues to indicate an abrupt reduction.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Kenya ($3,057 per tonne), while South Africa totaled $1,619 per tonne.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Kenya.

Imports in Africa

The imports totaled 79K tonnes in 2018, declining by -12.6% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the sausage imports decreased by -36.0% against 2014 indices.

In value terms, sausage imports stood at $123M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Angola dominates sausage imports structure, accounting for 48K tonnes, which was near 61% of total imports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Lesotho (6K tonnes), comprising 7.7% share of total imports. Gabon (2.9K tonnes), Ghana (2.6K tonnes), Mauritius (2.5K tonnes), Democratic Republic of the Congo (2.4K tonnes), Liberia (1.5K tonnes), Congo (1.5K tonnes), Cabo Verde (1.5K tonnes) and Mozambique (1.4K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Angola increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2008 to 2018. At the same time, Lesotho (+17.9%), Mozambique (+16.6%), Congo (+13.0%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+12.1%), Mauritius (+6.3%), Gabon (+5.3%), Liberia (+3.7%), Cabo Verde (+2.2%) and Ghana (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lesotho emerged as the fastest growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +17.9% from 2008-2018. While the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo (-2.1%), Lesotho (-6.2%) and Angola (-9.5%) decreased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Angola ($60M) constitutes the largest market for imported sausages and similar products of meat in Africa, comprising 49% of total sausage imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Lesotho ($9.1M), with a 7.4% share of total imports. It was followed by Mauritius, with a 5.5% share.

Import Prices by Country

The sausage import price in Africa stood at $1,558 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -4.6% against the previous year. Overall, the sausage import price continues to indicate a significant contraction.

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Mauritius ($2,657 per tonne), while Ghana ($1,160 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Mauritius, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Wheat Market in Africa – Key Insights

IndexBox has just published a new report, the Africa – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the wheat market in Africa amounted to $15.5B in 2017, rising by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The wheat consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, when it surged by 49% year-to-year. In that year, the wheat market attained its peak level of $21.9B. From 2012 to 2017, the growth of the wheat market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in Africa

In 2017, approx. 27M tonnes of wheat were produced in Africa; picking up by 16% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. 

Wheat Exports

The exports stood at 218K tonnes in 2017, declining by -20.4% against the previous year. The wheat exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, wheat exports amounted to $63M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. 

Exports by Country

South Africa was the major exporting country with the volume of exports totaling around 79K tonnes, which amounted to 36% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Tanzania (44K tonnes), Liberia (35K tonnes), Kenya (16K tonnes) and Mauritius (15K tonnes), together comprising 51% share of total exports. Zimbabwe (9.3K tonnes) and Mozambique (5.3K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mauritius (+62.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Africa ($31M) remains the largest wheat supplier in Africa, comprising 49% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Tanzania ($11M), with a 18% share of global exports. It was followed by Liberia, with a 8.6% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2017, the wheat export price in Africa amounted to $288 per tonne, coming down by -8.2% against the previous year. The the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest export price was Zimbabwe ($401 per tonne), while Liberia ($154 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Zimbabwe (+11.5% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

In 2017, the amount of wheat imported in Africa totaled 46M tonnes, remaining stable against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations over the period under review.

In value terms, wheat imports stood at $10.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The wheat imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In that year, wheat imports attained their peak of $13.6B. From 2012 to 2017, the growth of wheat imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2017, Egypt (13M tonnes), distantly followed by Algeria (8.1M tonnes), Nigeria (3.9M tonnes), Morocco (3.6M tonnes) and Sudan (2.2M tonnes) were the largest importers of wheat, together committing 66% of total imports. The following importers – Tunisia (1.9M tonnes), Kenya (1.9M tonnes), South Africa (1.7M tonnes), Libya (1.2M tonnes), Ghana (1.1M tonnes), Mozambique (748K tonnes) and Ethiopia (730K tonnes) together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Ghana (+12.6% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Egypt ($2.3B), Algeria ($1.8B) and Nigeria ($1.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2017, together accounting for 53% of total imports. Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Libya, Ethiopia and Mozambique lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2017, the wheat import price in Africa amounted to $221 per tonne, jumping by 5.6% against the previous year. The the wheat import price continues to indicate a slight descent. 

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Nigeria ($342 per tonne), while Mozambique ($177 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Libya (+8.6% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

First African Forum for National Trade Facilitation Committees Seeks to Reduce Trade Complexities

This week kicks off the First African Forum for National Trade Facilitation  event in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia focusing on international trade efforts. According to UNCTAD, the event “Aims to be the reference event in Africa where stakeholders from the public and private sector, can boost together their capacities towards the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA),” (UNCTAD).

The primary focus of the forum honed in on international trade efforts, tariffs, the role of NTFCs in the implementation of trade facilitation provisions in the AfCFTA, paperless initiatives at entry points, the involvement of the private sector in NTFCs, how to coordinate border agencies, and the role of transit corridors and the implementation process of Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement signed in March of this year. The overarching goal of the agreement is to increase Intra-African trade efforts through peaceful relations while creating a single, free moving market for goods and services.

“The World Trade Organization calculates that current trade costs for developing countries are equivalent to applying a staggering 219% tariff on international trade, and this hurts Africa,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said. “UNCTAD has supported Africa’s work on trade facilitation for decades, including with our ASYCUDA automated customs systems, and capacity building programmes. The culmination of this work is to support the institutions that can make trade work for all, and National Trade Facilitation Committees must become the agents of change to boost international trade for developing countries.”

With a centralized topic on simplifying the trade process within Sub-Saharan Africa, it’s estimated that trade costs could be reduced by 15% through successful efforts from well managed National Free Trade Committees.

“The forum is the result of close collaboration between multilateral and international organizations and is supported by several bilateral donors,” Shamika N. Sirimanne, director of UNCTAD’s division on technology and logistics, said. “The alliance showcases the collaborative effort of these institutions and donors to assist in moving forward opportunities for developing and least developed countries to integrate into globalized trade.”

As the forum moves into day two, the outcomes and solutions implemented are in high hopes of creating a better, more simplified trade sector for the region.

Source: UNCTAD

Advancing Global and Regional Trade in Africa through Intra-African Trade Fair

December 11-17, 2018 at the Egypt International Exhibition Center in Cairo, all 55 African countries will converge for the first edition of the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF). This is an initiative of the Africa Export Import Bank (Afreximbank) in collaboration with the African Union (AU) and supported by other partners around the world including the World Trade Center Miami.

Afreximbank, the convener of the trade fair, intends to use this platform to address the market information gap which in part is responsible for poor regional trade in Africa. Building a platform which provides access to the exchange of trade and market information will support the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) currently being negotiated aims to establish an open market for goods, services and business persons within the continent. Even though the CFTA agreement has been signed by about eighty percent of the countries in Africa, the road to its full implementation is still far ahead.

 

The process of market and economic integration is complicated everywhere in the world and particularly in Africa where poor levels of industrialization and openness, lack of dispute management mechanisms and intellectual property protections remain major roadblocks. Nevertheless, market integration is extremely important and in fact, a survival strategy for Africa. From Cape to Cairo, the continent is too fragmented in many ways – the economy, landscape and logistics, to make any meaningful improvement on economic development and hinterland connectivity.

The good news is, despite all the challenges associated with doing business in Africa, economic integration is already happening through African corporate entrepreneurs and multinational corporations. A report on “Pioneering One Africa” by the Boston Consulting Group named 150 companies, 75 African companies and 75 multinational companies who are driving the Pan-African market and economic integration.

African airlines, financial institutions, telecoms operators and media companies are accelerating intra-African connectivity and market integration by expanding their operational network to many countries across Africa. Over the last decade, Africa has seen growth in the number of air routes by local airlines, bank branch network and telecommunications operations. For example, Ethiopian airlines serves about 40 destinations in the region while the United Bank for Africa (UBA) has branches in 19 African countries. The progress being made by these companies shows that a continental single market for Africa is not impossible.

To continue the market and economic integration pioneered by these local and multinational companies, a multi-dimensional approach is required by all stakeholders. One approach which has proven to be an effective tool for trade development is trade fairs where businesses engage face to face. The Intra-African Trade Fair will help African countries to develop closer economic ties and harmonize their regulatory procedures thereby leading to increased global and regional trade.

The multi-sector Intra-African Trade Fair anticipates over $25 billion worth of trade and investment deals from 70,000 attendees featuring country pavilions for African and non-African countries. Other sideline events include engagement sessions with leaders and top government officials.

The trade fair is a gateway into the African single market of over one billion people. It will not only boost trade within Africa, American companies and other global market players can leverage this unprecedented market entry opportunity to grow their network and expand business interests to Africa.

 

 Kemi Arosanyin is a Global Trade contributor and Director, Africa Trade Expansion Program at the World Trade Center Miami. She writes, speaks, and advises on trade and investment in sub-Saharan Africa.