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Despite the Pandemic, the Global Plantain Market is to Grow Steadily, Driven by Rising Population in Africa

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Despite the Pandemic, the Global Plantain Market is to Grow Steadily, Driven by Rising Population in Africa

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Plantains – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Rising Population in Africa to Buoy Market Growth

The global plantain market rose to $31.9B in 2019 (IndexBox estimates), surging by 2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 6.9% y-o-y. Global consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In physical terms, global plantain consumption experienced a similar trend pattern, increasing from 37M tonnes in 2013 to approx. 43M tonnes in 2019. Over the last two years, the market rebounded after a slight contraction of 2016 which was caused by the escalation of civil armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo which is the largest plantain consuming country.

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain consumption in 2019 were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.7M tonnes), Cameroon (5.2M tonnes), and Ghana (4.2M tonnes), together comprising 36% of global consumption.

In value terms, the largest plantain markets worldwide were the Democratic Republic of the Congo ($5.4B), Cameroon ($4.5B), and Nigeria ($2.7B), together accounting for 39% of the global market. Peru, Myanmar, Colombia, the Philippines, Uganda, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

The countries with the highest levels of plantain per capita consumption in 2019 were Cameroon (205 kg per person), Ghana (141 kg per person), and the Dominican Republic (94 kg per person).

Plantains remain a staple food in African countries incl. those with low incomes, as their population has limited opportunities to opt for new alternatives in their local cuisine. Rising population and incomes in Africa, therefore, constitute major fundamentals behind the growth of the plantain market. Similar factors are relevant for some Latin American and Asian countries where plantains are also consumed at a noticeable scale.

In early 2020, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quarantine measures implemented worldwide to battle the spread of the virus hamper economic growth heavily throughout the world and disrupt the international supply chains. The result will be a drop in GDP which is to decrease consumer incomes.

Plantains, however, constitute a staple food, the consumption of which is rather insensitive to crisis periods. Given the fact that plantains are largely consumed in countries with low incomes and where they are only affordable mass food, it is not expected that the COVID crisis will lead to a deep decrease in plantain consumption. It is more likely that people would cut the consumption of more expensive food items on the backdrop of lower incomes. In the medium term, therefore, population growth will continue to drive growth in demand for plantains.

Accordingly, the plantain market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend, increasing with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 55M tonnes by the end of 2030.

The U.S. Remains the Largest Importer of Plantains

In 2019, global imports of plantains increased by 2.3% to 1.3M tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 7.9% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2019 and are likely to continue growing in the immediate term.

In value terms, plantain imports stood at $855M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

The U.S. represented the key importing country with an import of about 359K tonnes, which amounted to 27% of total imports. Saudi Arabia (145K tonnes) held an 11% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Africa (8.3%), the Netherlands (5.3%), and Romania (5.1%). The following importers – the UK (52K tonnes), El Salvador (44K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (42K tonnes), Belgium (33K tonnes), Jordan (32K tonnes), Spain (29K tonnes) and Macedonia (26K tonnes) – together made up 19% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to plantain imports into the U.S. stood at +2.6%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+24.7%), the Netherlands (+17.2%), the UK (+10.2%), Macedonia (+9.3%), Romania (+6.4%), South Africa (+5.6%), Saudi Arabia (+4.1%) and Jordan (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.7% from 2013-2019. By contrast, El Salvador (-7.2%), Spain (-7.3%) and Belgium (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($230M) constitutes the largest market for imported plantains worldwide, comprising 27% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Saudi Arabia ($99M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 8.6% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of value in the U.S. stood at +4.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of import growth: Saudi Arabia (+9.1% per year) and the Netherlands (+16.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the average plantain import price amounted to $634 per tonne, almost unchanged from the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 8.1% year-to-year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $679 per tonne. From 2018 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average import prices failed to regain the momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,032 per tonne), while El Salvador ($206 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by El Salvador, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Africa’s Plantain Market to Reach Over 30M Tonnes by 2025

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Plantains – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain consumption in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of plantain per capita consumption in 2018 were Cameroon (197 kg per person), Ghana (141 kg per person) and Uganda (68 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for plantain in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

The plantain production stood at 25M tonnes in 2018, picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, plantain production attained its peak figure volume in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of plantain output was largely conditioned by a conspicuous increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain production in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

The plantain harvested area amounted to 4.2M ha in 2018, growing by 3.7% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to plantain production reached its peak figure at 4.3M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Yield in Africa

The average plantain yield amounted to 5.8 tonne per ha in 2018, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the plantain yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when yield increased by 1.6% y-o-y. The level of plantain yield peaked at 5.8 tonne per ha in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports in Africa

The exports totaled 99K tonnes in 2018, dropping by -5.8% against the previous year. Overall, plantain exports continue to indicate an abrupt decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 27% year-to-year. The volume of exports peaked at 181K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, plantain exports amounted to $45M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, plantain exports continue to indicate a drastic descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 13% year-to-year. The level of exports peaked at $85M in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Mozambique (38K tonnes) and Cote d’Ivoire (26K tonnes) were the main exporters of plantains in Africa, together making up 65% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Sudan (14K tonnes) and South Africa (12K tonnes), together committing a 27% share of total exports. The following exporters – Cameroon (3.2K tonnes) and Ghana (2.9K tonnes) – each accounted for a 6.1% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Cote d’Ivoire, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plantain markets in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($12M), Sudan ($11M) and Mozambique ($11M), together accounting for 76% of total exports.

Sudan experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain export price in Africa amounted to $454 per tonne, growing by 4.8% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for plantains attained their maximum at $485 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Cameroon ($850 per tonne), while Ghana ($203 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cameroon, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

The imports totaled 179K tonnes in 2018, picking up by 11% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, plantain imports increased by +20.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, plantain imports totaled $51M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

South Africa was the key importing country with an import of about 119K tonnes, which resulted at 66% of total imports. Senegal (29K tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Mali (17K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total imports. Botswana (5.1K tonnes) and Algeria (3.1K tonnes) occupied a little share of total imports.

Imports into South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Senegal (+19.5%) and Mali (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +19.5% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Botswana (-2.5%) and Algeria (-16.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Senegal and Mali increased by +46%, +14% and +4.6% percentage points, while Algeria (-11.4 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($27M) constitutes the largest market for imported plantains in Africa, comprising 53% of total plantain imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Senegal ($13M), with a 25% share of total imports. It was followed by Botswana, with a 6.4% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Africa totaled +9.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Senegal (+22.9% per year) and Botswana (-3.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain import price in Africa amounted to $284 per tonne, coming down by -1.9% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain import price continues to indicate a perceptible setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the import price increased by 12% year-to-year. The level of import price peaked at $421 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Algeria ($1,017 per tonne), while Mali ($64 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Algeria, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform