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Concerns Over Debt Sustainability Rise in Sub-Saharan Africa Amid Covid-19

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Concerns Over Debt Sustainability Rise in Sub-Saharan Africa Amid Covid-19

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Like many regions, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been severely hit by the coronavirus, posing significant challenges to businesses there. As the pandemic continues to disrupt the economy and debt levels rise, Atradius analysts predict an economic contraction of 4.6% in 2020 due to the disruption in trade, a drop in commodity demand, and worldwide travel restrictions.

This development is especially troubling for vulnerable economies heavily dependent on oil exports, such as the Republic of Congo and Angola, and countries dependent on tourism like Cabo Verde, Mauritius, and Tanzania. However, diversified economies like, Ghana, Uganda and Senegal will see a stronger recovery because they had a better starting point before entering the recession.

The Pandemic Rages On

At the onset of the pandemic, African governments acted decisively and restrictive measures were taken across the region as borders closed and partial lockdowns began. In SSA, the number of infections and fatalities is relatively low compared to other regions. Of the five countries accounting for more than 75% of all confirmed cases, South Africa has the most confirmed cases, followed by Ethiopia and Nigeria.

The challenge with SSA is that the virus spreads faster in impoverished and densely populated areas because social-distancing measures cannot be adhered to easily.

Although government actions averted a massive health crisis in the region, the economy has paid a price. In countries where many people work in the informal sector, pandemic-related restrictions had the most severe economic impact.

Debt Levels Continue to Worsen

In 2020, the composition of the region’s debt has shifted toward more commercial and foreign currency-denominated debt, a dramatic change from previous years. Rising fiscal deficits throughout the region are making for a worrisome situation. Zambia, Angola, Ghana, and other countries had concerns about debt sustainability even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, many countries, especially commodity (particularly oil) exporting countries, have seen currency depreciation.

Sub-Saharan African countries that have previously relied on foreign borrowing are struggling to finance their deficits. That said, there are some plans to bring these countries relief in the form of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative from the G20. This initiative allows the poorest countries to suspend debt service payments to official bilateral creditors and has been extended to mid-2021, giving some African countries breathing room in this economic crisis. Additionally, the region is calling on commercial creditors to participate in the initiative to help countries like Zambia and Angola that have high commercial foreign currency debt.

Opportunity Ahead in 2021?

The extent and duration of the economic impact of the global pandemic remain uncertain, but post-Covid-19, governments in SSA are prepared to step up their efforts to make countries more resilient in the face of external shocks.

Opportunities exist on the other side of 2020 in the form of renewable energy in solar and wind. This will not only help the region achieve climate goals, but it also creates economic opportunities for bigger countries like Kenya and South Africa.

Another opportunity for SSA lies in manufacturing, which is still low across SSA exempting Ethiopia and South Africa. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, introduced in early 2020, will provide significant opportunities for manufacturing companies across the region. Due to Covid-19, however, the expected implementation in July 2020 was delayed. Once it is implemented, which will likely be in January of 2021, SSA will be one of the largest free trade areas in the world.

For businesses operating in SSA, one of the risks presented during the global pandemic is the exchange rate risk, especially since the currencies of commodity exporters have depreciated. Businesses can mitigate these risks by minimizing currency mismatch. Paying attention to contracts with public buyers will also be important moving through SSA’s economic recovery because government finances have deteriorated for many countries throughout the region.

The SSA region is headed into a challenging year filled with uncertainty and economic vulnerabilities. The most affected countries – those reliant on tourism and oil exports – will see a particularly slow recovery over the course of 2021. Cote d’Ivoire and Uganda, which have been recording high growth rates before Covid-19 hit, will see a strong recovery after the pandemic.

Covid-19 has had a tremendous impact on short-term economic growth and as long as governments expenditures throughout the region can be prioritized and used towards much-needed infrastructure, there is a silver lining for the region. Still, vulnerabilities remain and the pace and strength of any recovery is dependent on the containment and end of Covid-19.

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Afke Zeilstra is a Senior Economist at Atradius, a global trade credit insurer. She is responsible for country risk analysis and advice on countries in Africa. She holds an M.A. in Economics.

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

African Peach and Nectarine Market – Egypt to Dominate Production and Trade in 2019

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Peaches And Nectarines – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the peach and nectarine market in Africa amounted to $1.7B in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The total market indicated a strong growth from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Based on 2018 figures, the peach and nectarine consumption increased by +32.3% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017, with an increase of 23% against the previous year. In that year, the peach and nectarine market reached its peak level of $1.7B, leveling off in the following year.

Production in Africa

The peach and nectarine production amounted to 1.2M tonnes in 2018, going up by 2.5% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, with an increase of 9.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, peach and nectarine production attained its maximum volume in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms of peach and nectarine output was largely conditioned by a mild expansion of the harvested area and a moderate growth in yield figures.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, exports of peaches and nectarines in Africa totaled 59K tonnes, going down by -14.5% against the previous year. In general, peach and nectarine exports continue to indicate a drastic descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016, with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 99K tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, peach and nectarine exports amounted to $100M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2008 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, with an increase of 20% year-to-year. In that year, peach and nectarine exports attained their peak of $110M, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports by Country

In 2018, South Africa (18K tonnes) and Egypt (14K tonnes) represented the main exporters of peaches and nectarines in the region, together creating 55% of total exports. Guinea (7.9K tonnes) held a 13% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Morocco (11%), Tunisia (8.9%) and Tanzania (7.4%). Zambia (2.3K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Tanzania (+228.4% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Africa ($38M) remains the largest peach and nectarine supplier in Africa, comprising 38% of total peach and nectarine exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Egypt ($15M), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by Guinea, with a 12% share.

Export Prices by Country

The peach and nectarine export price in Africa stood at $1,675 per tonne in 2018, jumping by 5.9% against the previous year. The export price indicated a strong increase from 2008 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the peach and nectarine export price increased by +120.3% against 2008 indices.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Zambia ($4,702 per tonne), while Egypt ($1,034 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Guinea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 54K tonnes of peaches and nectarines were imported in Africa; rising by 72% against the previous year.

In value terms, peach and nectarine imports totaled $41M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, peach and nectarine imports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013, with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, peach and nectarine imports reached their peak figure at $43M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Egypt (29K tonnes) represented the key importer for peaches and nectarines, comprising 53% of total imports. Algeria (17K tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Libya (2.6K tonnes) and South Africa (2.6K tonnes). All these countries together held approx. 40% share of total imports.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Algeria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest peach and nectarine importing markets in Africa were Algeria ($19M), Egypt ($12M) and South Africa ($3.8M), with a combined 83% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The peach and nectarine import price in Africa stood at $758 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -28.1% against the previous year. Overall, the peach and nectarine import price continues to indicate a significant descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the import price increased by 56% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the import prices for peaches and nectarines reached their maximum at $1,098 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was South Africa ($1,479 per tonne), while Egypt ($401 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Libya, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Africa’s Plantain Market to Reach Over 30M Tonnes by 2025

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Plantains – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain consumption in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of plantain per capita consumption in 2018 were Cameroon (197 kg per person), Ghana (141 kg per person) and Uganda (68 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for plantain in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

The plantain production stood at 25M tonnes in 2018, picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, plantain production attained its peak figure volume in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of plantain output was largely conditioned by a conspicuous increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of plantain production in 2018 were Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.5M tonnes), Cameroon (4.8M tonnes) and Ghana (4.1M tonnes), together comprising 59% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plantain production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

The plantain harvested area amounted to 4.2M ha in 2018, growing by 3.7% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to plantain production reached its peak figure at 4.3M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Yield in Africa

The average plantain yield amounted to 5.8 tonne per ha in 2018, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the plantain yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when yield increased by 1.6% y-o-y. The level of plantain yield peaked at 5.8 tonne per ha in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports in Africa

The exports totaled 99K tonnes in 2018, dropping by -5.8% against the previous year. Overall, plantain exports continue to indicate an abrupt decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 27% year-to-year. The volume of exports peaked at 181K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, plantain exports amounted to $45M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, plantain exports continue to indicate a drastic descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 13% year-to-year. The level of exports peaked at $85M in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Mozambique (38K tonnes) and Cote d’Ivoire (26K tonnes) were the main exporters of plantains in Africa, together making up 65% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Sudan (14K tonnes) and South Africa (12K tonnes), together committing a 27% share of total exports. The following exporters – Cameroon (3.2K tonnes) and Ghana (2.9K tonnes) – each accounted for a 6.1% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Cote d’Ivoire, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plantain markets in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($12M), Sudan ($11M) and Mozambique ($11M), together accounting for 76% of total exports.

Sudan experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain export price in Africa amounted to $454 per tonne, growing by 4.8% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for plantains attained their maximum at $485 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Cameroon ($850 per tonne), while Ghana ($203 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cameroon, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

The imports totaled 179K tonnes in 2018, picking up by 11% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, plantain imports increased by +20.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, plantain imports totaled $51M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Over the period under review, plantain imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

South Africa was the key importing country with an import of about 119K tonnes, which resulted at 66% of total imports. Senegal (29K tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Mali (17K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total imports. Botswana (5.1K tonnes) and Algeria (3.1K tonnes) occupied a little share of total imports.

Imports into South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Senegal (+19.5%) and Mali (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +19.5% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Botswana (-2.5%) and Algeria (-16.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Senegal and Mali increased by +46%, +14% and +4.6% percentage points, while Algeria (-11.4 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($27M) constitutes the largest market for imported plantains in Africa, comprising 53% of total plantain imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Senegal ($13M), with a 25% share of total imports. It was followed by Botswana, with a 6.4% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Africa totaled +9.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Senegal (+22.9% per year) and Botswana (-3.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the plantain import price in Africa amounted to $284 per tonne, coming down by -1.9% against the previous year. Overall, the plantain import price continues to indicate a perceptible setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the import price increased by 12% year-to-year. The level of import price peaked at $421 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Algeria ($1,017 per tonne), while Mali ($64 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Algeria, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

African Maize Market Reached $35.1B in 2018, Driven by Rising Demand in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the maize market in Africa amounted to $35.1B in 2018, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize consumption in 2018 were South Africa (16M tonnes), Egypt (16M tonnes) and Nigeria (11M tonnes), with a combined 42% share of total consumption. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Algeria, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Uganda and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of maize per capita consumption in 2018 were South Africa (283 kg per person), Zambia (219 kg per person) and Malawi (183 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Africa

Driven by increasing demand for maize in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 123M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

In 2018, the production of maize in Africa totaled 87M tonnes, going up by 6.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. The volume of maize production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of maize output was largely conditioned by resilient growth of the harvested area and a modest increase in yield figures.

In value terms, maize production stood at $31.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when production volume increased by 31% year-to-year. In that year, maize production attained its peak level of $31.9B. From 2015 to 2018, maize production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize production in 2018 were South Africa (18M tonnes), Nigeria (11M tonnes) and Ethiopia (8.9M tonnes), with a combined 44% share of total production. Egypt, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Uganda, Mali, Kenya, Cameroon and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

In 2018, approx. 42M ha of maize were harvested in Africa; picking up by 4.3% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when harvested area increased by 9.3% y-o-y. The level of maize harvested area peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Yield in Africa

The average maize yield stood at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2018, increasing by 1.8% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the maize yield reached its peak figure level at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2018, yield remained at a lower figure.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize exported in Africa amounted to 2.9M tonnes, falling by -6% against the previous year. In general, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2009 with an increase of 81% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 3.4M tonnes in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, maize exports totaled $615M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a mild expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 81% y-o-y. In that year, maize exports reached their peak of $1.1B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of maize exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2018, South Africa (2.2M tonnes) was the major exporter of maize, committing 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Uganda (336K tonnes), generating a 12% share of total exports. The following exporters – Zambia (113K tonnes), Tanzania (82K tonnes) and Burkina Faso (81K tonnes) – together made up 9.6% of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.0% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Tanzania (+20.0%), Burkina Faso (+11.9%) and Uganda (+10.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in Africa, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Zambia (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania and Burkina Faso increased by +52%, +7.7%, +2.5% and +2% percentage points, while Zambia (-2.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced.

In value terms, South Africa ($452M) remains the largest maize supplier in Africa, comprising 73% of total maize exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uganda ($70M), with a 11% share of total exports. It was followed by Zambia, with a 6.3% share.

In South Africa, maize exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Uganda (+9.5% per year) and Zambia (-3.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize export price in Africa amounted to $214 per tonne, falling by -6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize export price continues to indicate a drastic deduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when the export price increased by 15% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for maize reached their peak figure at $360 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($345 per tonne), while Burkina Faso ($145 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zambia, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize imported in Africa amounted to 20M tonnes, growing by 2.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports increased by +18.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, maize imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, maize imports totaled $3.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated moderate growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports decreased by -14.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 40% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked at $4.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Egypt was the major importer of maize in Africa, with the volume of imports amounting to 9M tonnes, which was approx. 46% of total imports in 2018. Algeria (4.1M tonnes) held a 21% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Morocco (12%) and Tunisia (5%). Libya (749K tonnes), Kenya (530K tonnes) and Senegal (381K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to maize imports into Egypt stood at +6.6%. At the same time, Kenya (+16.3%), Senegal (+13.2%), Algeria (+5.5%), Tunisia (+4.3%), Libya (+3.4%) and Morocco (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +16.3% from 2007-2018. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Morocco and Tunisia increased by +23%, +9.4%, +2.2%, +2% and +1.8% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Egypt ($1.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported maize in Africa, comprising 44% of total maize imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Algeria ($723M), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Morocco, with a 11% share.

In Egypt, maize imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Algeria (+3.1% per year) and Morocco (-0.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize import price in Africa amounted to $181 per tonne, declining by -8.9% against the previous year. Overall, the maize import price continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the import prices for maize attained their peak figure at $280 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Kenya ($224 per tonne) and Senegal ($217 per tonne), while Tunisia ($160 per tonne) and Libya ($164 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily

Africa is Ready for Growth with Support from Trans-Ocean Transportation

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RTM Lines is a trans-ocean transportation company headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, with over 39 years of experience in the global ocean carrier business. As a respected ocean transportation provider, we are continually equipping clients with valuable information and insight related to the ocean transportation industry.  Recently, RTM Lines has invested time and research to better understand the growth of African infrastructure and resources; and how those factors affect opportunities for growth and development in the breakbulk and project cargo markets. Research shows Africa resources and opportunities in key locations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, and Northern Mozambique. 

“Right now, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is sitting on the world’s largest cobalt resource, however the ongoing political turmoil, makes it very difficult to access the cobalt,” said Richard Tiebel, RTM’s Executive Vice President. He states, “Africa is showing more exponential growth than any other continent. Right now, markets like Ethiopia have shown 8% GDP growth, per annum. Analyzation shows there are a number of factors within urbanization, ICT (Telecommunications), and the Extractives Industry (Oil, Gas, and Mining) driving this growth.” 

With an array of potential possibilities for growth in Africa in the coming years, RTM Lines recommends directing attention to trades and the international markets in Africa, specifically in the shipping and trading processes. The growth and opportunities available in the African market, have great potential for clients that develop and understand the Africa market. 

“In the next 4-5 years, city populations in Africa will double, which means the infrastructure will need development. This development will motivate the community to build infrastructure that supply power, water, sanitation, housing developments, and support to serve the new population in the area. Most governments couldn’t support fixed-line infrastructures, but Africa is going through an information, communication, and technological revolution. The private sector is supporting this revolution and allowing Africans to pursue business opportunities. Companies like Microsoft have been investing in some African tech sectors, to develop talent and to take Africa forward,” said Tiebel.

As the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 regulation will soon go into effect, Tiebel shared his perspective on how Africa’s natural resources can positively influence the trans-ocean transportation industry. 

Mr. Tiebel states, “the gas in Northern Mozambique is the world’s 12th largest natural gas resource. A lot of infrastructure will be needed in order to get this gas because the town itself is very small and scarcely has roads to support it, no port, no airport, or even power and electricity. The town of Palma will literally be built up in order to access this gas resource offshore.” He continues, “the cost of the IMO regulatory change on the shipping industry is unknown, and though we know the IMO’s decision will impact refiners, producers, bunker suppliers, and more, Africa offers a variety of natural resources to emerge as a major beneficiary of this regulation. This supply of natural resources has the potential to help the trans-ocean transportation industry control the anticipated spike in fuel costs in 2020.” 

RTM Lines is committed to providing customers the information necessary to ship ocean cargo with confidence. Understanding the changes and regulations in these expanding and shifting markets is key to providing smooth transit for infrastructure, mining, and oil & gas project cargo. RTM Lines is both knowledgeable and competent in global operations. Port to port, RTM Lines strives to improve the global trade market and the quality of the ocean transportation industry.

Mozambique
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Mozambique Should Put Privinvest Boats into Operation

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The next several months will be critical for Mozambique. A peace agreement signed in August between Frelimo and Renamo, its ruling and opposition parties, has set the stage for national elections on October 15. “Free and fair elections,” with results accepted by all, would bolster national reconciliation in this fragile country and would be a major step away from years of low-level conflict and acrimony. Successful elections would also build momentum for Mozambique to reach its economic potential.

One of the world’s poorest countries, Mozambique suffered from years of civil war beginning soon after its 1975 independence from Portugal. One million Mozambicans died. Earlier this year, Mozambique was hammered by two devastating cyclones. While there is hope for economic progress — the country enjoys abundant natural resources — Mozambicans will need Frelimo and Renamo to overcome their bloody past and work together, whichever party wins the election.

One area of potential cooperation is securing the country’s rich but vulnerable coastline.

Earlier this decade, the Frelimo government committed to invest some $2 billion into boats and related maritime equipment to police Mozambique’s rich fisheries, which are being illegally exploited by China and others. Another aim was to develop Mozambique’s own fishing and maritime industries, including through ship repair and building. Since then, global energy giants have committed tens of billions of dollars to developing the country’s large offshore natural gas fields. This development makes securing its coastal region all the more important for Mozambique.

Unfortunately, this effort fell apart. The international shipbuilder Privinvest, supplier to some 40 navies, delivered over 60 boats, equipment and support systems. Yet these assets remain mostly unused. Almost two dozen former Mozambican government officials, including the then-president’s son, have been charged with corruption that sunk this project. Sadly, this isn’t unusual. Transparency International labels Mozambique’s corruption as “endemic,” having cost the country nearly $5 billion between 2002 and 2014.

Without these boats in use — many are literally rusting in dock — Mozambique is doing little to protect its coast against continued illegal fishing and other harmful activities. No local fishing industry is being built. The is a major lost opportunity. Despite having “great growth potential,” it should be no surprise that fisheries in Mozambique are an “under-performing sector,” according to the World Bank. The bank also has identified “strengthening governance and management” as a key goal in developing Mozambique’s coastal economy.

The new Mozambique government that takes power after the elections should make putting these boats into the water a priority. They are simply too valuable a resource to be wasted.  Overcoming this scandal and making strides to protect and develop the country’s ocean wealth for the benefit of all Mozambicans would send a powerful signal that the country is on the right track. It would also be a tangible example that Mozambique is overcoming its devastating legacy of corruption, which would help attract badly needed foreign investment.

Effectively deploying these maritime assets would require Frelimo and Renamo to shift from the campaign and to work for the common good. The new government should figure out what went wrong but, more importantly, look ahead at what needs to go right to fix the problem. Private operators would probably be best to replace the defunct state-run companies set up to operate the boats; business consultants could help figure out the best way forward. International donors and others would likely want to help recover these fixed costs.

Too often, democracies, both young and more established, suffer from a “winner-take-all” mindset that stifles cooperation and progress. Mozambican politicians, with years of violent conflict, are particularly tested. Unless Frelimo and Renamo cooperate to solve problems, setting aside their hostility, democracy will sputter, and the country will backslide. In that case, coastal problems would only worsen.

Pope Francis just visited Mozambique. He urged “hope, peace, and reconciliation,” praising the peace deal and personal courage shown by Frelimo President Filipe Nyusi and Renamo leader Ossufo Momade. Both men face hard-liner opposition within their parties. Hopefully, this spirit of cooperation and reconciliation will grow in Mozambique.

The new Mozambique government will face many challenges. Expectations by Mozambicans run high, especially with the development of natural gas. Putting idle boats and other maritime assets to work to protect and responsibly develop the country’s natural wealth would be an excellent way to help meet these challenges.

_______________________________________________________________

Tom Sheehy is a former staff director of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Paramount Group
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IMDEC 2019: Paramount Group Confirms Sponsorship & Support

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Adding to its longstanding relationship with the Ghanaian Navy, Paramount Group confirmed a Platinum Sponsorship for the Ghanaian Navy’s 60th anniversary celebration taking place at this year’s International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference (IMDEC 2019 –https://imdecafrica.com/) in Ghana from July 24-25.

“We have a very strong and lasting relationship with the Ghanaian Navy and it is a great privilege to support this momentous occasion of its 60th Anniversary,” said Senior Vice President of Paramount Group, Mr. Eric Ichikowitz. “It is through partnerships like this that governments can unlock the vast benefits of the Blue Ocean economy by creating indigenous and regional naval capabilities that will bolster local manufacturing, skills development and technology transfer.”

The global aerospace and technology company will also participate as one of many delegates at the conference among more than 15 Chiefs of Naval Staff and a multitude of Africa’s public and private sector maritime stakeholders.

“This Conference affords Paramount Group and our stakeholders in the African security and defense space with a timely opportunity to present strategic, localized, and cost-efficient methodologies and solutions necessary to secure some of Africa’s most important assets: its waterways,” added Ichikowitz.

“We are looking forward to deliberate upon lasting solutions for addressing the socio-economical threats of piracy, human and drug trafficking, illegal fishing, bunkering and armed robberies that impact the present security and future potential of Africa’s maritime and coastal waters.” 

Ichikowitz will be leading delegations as a key speaker during the event appropriately themed, “60 Years of Naval Excellence: Securing the Maritime Domain for National Development.” Event attendees have the opportunity to participate in-depth panel discussions, breakout sessions, as well as VIP exhibition tours of elite military facilities including the Sekondi Naval Base.

In addition to its offering of multi-role naval vessels from interceptor light strike vessels, to off-shore patrol vessels, Paramount Group adds more value to its partnership with African navies through its systems installation, integration programmes, and implementing equipment upgrades installation combined with high-skills training. These efforts are combined to ultimately create operations aligned with economic and sustainable efficiencies among shore facilities.

“We are excited to join the Ghanaian Navy at IMDEC 2019, an event we anticipate will foster newfound dialogue and best practice in collaboration and innovation for securitizing the Gulf of Guinea. The ECOWAS is home to one of Africa’s foremost oil and gas enclaves that unfortunately today has grown increasingly volatile, costing the region billions of dollars in economic activity. We look forward to continuing to play a role in safeguarding these coastal waters in tandem with our partners across the region,” Ichikowitz concluded.

african sausage
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Africa’s Sausage Market Posts Third Consecutive Year of Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Sausages And Similar Products Of Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the sausage market in Africa amounted to $6B in 2018, growing by 9.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

In general, sausage consumption continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016, with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The level of sausage consumption peaked at $7.4B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in Africa

In 2018, sausage production in Africa amounted to 2M tonnes, coming down by -3.1% against the previous year.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of sausages and similar products of meat exported in Africa amounted to 12K tonnes, jumping by 2.3% against the previous year. The total exports indicated a prominent growth from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the sausage exports increased by +14.3% against 2016 indices.

In value terms, sausage exports totaled $21M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, sausage exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013, when exports increased by 16% y-o-y. In that year, sausage exports attained their peak of $30M. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of sausage exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in sausage exports structure, amounting to 10K tonnes, which was near 86% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Kenya (1.2K tonnes), generating 9.8% share of total exports.

South Africa was also the fastest growing in terms of the sausages and similar products of meat exports, with a CAGR of +9.1% from 2008 to 2018. Kenya experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of South Africa (-50.2%) decreased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($16M) remains the largest sausage supplier in Africa, comprising 78% of total sausage exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Kenya ($3.5M), with a 17% share of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the sausage export price in Africa amounted to $1,793 per tonne, waning by -12.4% against the previous year. In general, the sausage export price continues to indicate an abrupt reduction.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Kenya ($3,057 per tonne), while South Africa totaled $1,619 per tonne.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Kenya.

Imports in Africa

The imports totaled 79K tonnes in 2018, declining by -12.6% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the sausage imports decreased by -36.0% against 2014 indices.

In value terms, sausage imports stood at $123M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Angola dominates sausage imports structure, accounting for 48K tonnes, which was near 61% of total imports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Lesotho (6K tonnes), comprising 7.7% share of total imports. Gabon (2.9K tonnes), Ghana (2.6K tonnes), Mauritius (2.5K tonnes), Democratic Republic of the Congo (2.4K tonnes), Liberia (1.5K tonnes), Congo (1.5K tonnes), Cabo Verde (1.5K tonnes) and Mozambique (1.4K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Angola increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2008 to 2018. At the same time, Lesotho (+17.9%), Mozambique (+16.6%), Congo (+13.0%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+12.1%), Mauritius (+6.3%), Gabon (+5.3%), Liberia (+3.7%), Cabo Verde (+2.2%) and Ghana (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lesotho emerged as the fastest growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +17.9% from 2008-2018. While the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo (-2.1%), Lesotho (-6.2%) and Angola (-9.5%) decreased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Angola ($60M) constitutes the largest market for imported sausages and similar products of meat in Africa, comprising 49% of total sausage imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Lesotho ($9.1M), with a 7.4% share of total imports. It was followed by Mauritius, with a 5.5% share.

Import Prices by Country

The sausage import price in Africa stood at $1,558 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -4.6% against the previous year. Overall, the sausage import price continues to indicate a significant contraction.

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Mauritius ($2,657 per tonne), while Ghana ($1,160 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Mauritius, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Special Reports

Economic Opportunities of Megacities in Sub-Saharan Africa

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The uninterrupted flow of people from rural communities to urban areas has remarkably increased over the past 100 years worldwide. This migration trend, leading to the formation of megacities, will continue over the next decade with 60 percent of the world population expected to live in urban areas by 2030 based on projections from the United Nations (UN).

The UN defines megacity as a metropolitan area with population of over ten million residents. Euromonitor International reported that 33 of such cities exist in the world as of 2017. If the threshold is lowered to five million, the number of qualified cities goes up to 47. Between now and 2030, the significance of megacities in global economic affairs will continue to rise. Megacities will alter the economic landscape of the world as 15 percent of world GDP will come from these cities. Developing countries, which currently have the highest number of megacities, 26 out of 33, will play a dominant role.

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), high youth population continues to fuel urbanization since young people are always seeking the excitement of urban life, job opportunities and higher quality of life. Mckinsey Global Institute is forecasting that African cities with more than five million inhabitants will rise from six in 2015 to 17 by 2030 and cities with over ten million people will increase from three to five, adding Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Luanda, Angola to the region’s current megacities of Cairo – Egypt, Kinshasa – Congo DRC and Lagos – Nigeria.

By projection, Luanda would increase its population by 60 percent, Cairo would add 6.3 million inhabitants to become Africa’s largest megacity with about 30 million people and Nigeria’s urban size would grow by nine percent over the next decade. In addition, 89 African cities across the continent will have population of 1 million or more according to Mckinsey Global Institute. Although the middle class emerging from this pattern of urbanization will drive strong economic growth in the future, additional burdens that will come with high density living demand urgent attention to limit economic, social and environmental hardships such as traffic congestion, pollution, income inequality and high crime rate.

Based on this imminent urban population surge, the affected countries are seeking solution-based engagements with both local entrepreneurs and foreign investors to provide infrastructure upgrade and contemporary urban planning. Existing and upcoming megacities in the continent require coordinated investments in housing, healthcare, sanitation and waste management, energy, clean water supply and education including transportation facilities that would boost access to regional and global markets. It is the only way to achieve the productivity gains that other developing regions have achieved through urbanization.

This urbanization trend presents a unique opportunity to U.S. service and infrastructure companies with appetite for business expansion in Africa. Already many Asian companies, especially Singaporeans, have taken advantage of this situation to establish strong presence in Africa’s city-planning sector.

Surbana Jurong, Meinhardt and Hyflux are Singaporean firms leveraging their domestic experience to solve urban-infrastructure problems in Africa. Evidently African stakeholders are engaging them in planning for the future of cities facing unprecedented pressure. From Surbana Jurong’s city planning of Kigali, Rwanda, the sewage treatment systems in Nairobi, Kenya, the master planning of Lekki new township in Lagos, Nigeria to Hyflux’s multi-billion dollar development of infrastructure, utilities and environmental solutions for the Star City township project in Morogoro, Tanzania, these companies are making impact in urban planning and city development projects across Africa.

Africa offers extraordinary opportunities for those who are prepared to overcome short-term difficulties. It is extremely important for American companies to understand the geography of Africa’s growing cities and deploy strategies to succeed in this very dynamic and evolving business environment.

Kemi Arosanyin is an International Trade Development Specialist and Director, Africa Trade Expansion Program at the World Trade Center Miami. She writes, speaks, and advises on trade and investment in sub-Saharan Africa.

security
Archives, Foreign Trade Zones, Global Trade Daily

Mozambique’s Hi-Tech Security Could be Africa’s Model

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The threat of piracy has waned around the Horn of Africa in recent years, a fact that mariners attribute to the “Djibouti rules.” Countries with coastlines on the West Indian Ocean and the Red Sea abide by the Djibouti Code of Conduct, a regional response to security, environmental and administrative challenges that have confronted shipping for many years.

In even better news, there’s now a chance for “Djibouti 2.” This wouldn’t be a diplomatic accord. Rather, advanced technology offers the promise of new dynamism to cooperation and surveillance, which we can see as a follow up to the Djibouti rules. A model for the kinds of high-tech equipment and systems that can help protect assets in the seas is now in the hands of a southern signatory to the code, Mozambique.

To be precise, the model in this case are the high-speed maritime security vessels and an accompanying set of seven unmanned radar sites and VSAT satellite surveillance services that Mozambique took delivery of a few years ago.

The wide range of threats to mariners and commercial enterprises on Africa’s East coast demand not only multinational cooperation but also real-time intelligence to inform and direct law-enforcement efforts. In its recent report on maritime security, DefenseWeb, notes that the Djibouti code has been amended to cover illicit maritime activity beyond piracy and armed robbery, such as weapons, drugs, human and wildlife trafficking; illegal waste dumping; illegal fishing; and crude oil theft. Satellite and radar are needed to pinpoint these threats.

International organizations like the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime have focused resources on the Horn of Africa, specifically in Somalia and Somaliland. But trouble has a way of migrating down the coast. Indeed, the root causes of piracy are often ignored. According to the Africa Center for Security Policy, piracy is problem that is primarily  land-based with maritime symptoms. Many of the people who were involved in piracy and other criminal activity a decade ago are still engaged in maritime crime.  

These elements are converging in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province. With marauding terrorist gangs crossing Tanzania’s southern border into Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique, spikes in violence have already been seen, including an attack there earlier this year on contractors for the U.S. energy giant Anadarko. One person was beheaded. As Anadarko and other oil and gas firms develop offshore natural gas fields, terrorists and criminals will no doubt put their sights on these target-rich environments at sea. That is the moment when satellite surveillance and radar arrays will prove valuable.

Mozambique has a state-of-the-art capacity at its disposal, even if the radar systems have not yet been deployed in some cases. This equipment, provided by the global shipbuilding company Privinvest, can be used to protect and monitor the estimated $30 billion worth of gas reserves now under development in Mozambique’s territorial waters.

In addition, the country is losing an estimated $60 million in revenue each year to illegal fishing, mostly by foreign-owned ships, according to Mozambican minister of oceans and fisheries Agostinho Mondlane. Many millions more worth of ivory, minerals, alcohol, narcotics and sugar are smuggled out of Africa through scantly-monitored ports in northern Mozambique. Tighter monitoring of its ports and maritime traffic would help the country crack down on all these crimes.

Satellite and radar tracking would complement one another especially when it comes to monitoring the Exclusive Economic Zones of coastal states in Africa. Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) aboard ships, which track vessels, can also be picked up by satellite. Illegal fishing, smuggling or pirate vessels have every reason not to turn on their AIS systems. That’s where radar systems capable of running Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS) become essential to law enforcement. Setting up VMS with equipment already purchased by Mozambique and running them through a unified command center would make Mozambique a model to be replicated across the continent.

The Djibouti Code of Conduct depends on meaningful contributions from its signatory states. By standing up its radar stations, operationalizing its satellite services and integrating its high-speed patrol boats and interceptors into this technology-driven network, Mozambique could provide the living blueprint for maritime security in Africa.

Gregory Tosi is an attorney practicing international trade law in developing countries. He also builds personal submersibles and small boats