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African Maize Market Reached $35.1B in 2018, Driven by Rising Demand in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria

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African Maize Market Reached $35.1B in 2018, Driven by Rising Demand in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the maize market in Africa amounted to $35.1B in 2018, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize consumption in 2018 were South Africa (16M tonnes), Egypt (16M tonnes) and Nigeria (11M tonnes), with a combined 42% share of total consumption. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Algeria, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Uganda and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of maize per capita consumption in 2018 were South Africa (283 kg per person), Zambia (219 kg per person) and Malawi (183 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Africa

Driven by increasing demand for maize in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 123M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

In 2018, the production of maize in Africa totaled 87M tonnes, going up by 6.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. The volume of maize production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of maize output was largely conditioned by resilient growth of the harvested area and a modest increase in yield figures.

In value terms, maize production stood at $31.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when production volume increased by 31% year-to-year. In that year, maize production attained its peak level of $31.9B. From 2015 to 2018, maize production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of maize production in 2018 were South Africa (18M tonnes), Nigeria (11M tonnes) and Ethiopia (8.9M tonnes), with a combined 44% share of total production. Egypt, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Uganda, Mali, Kenya, Cameroon and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of maize production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Mali, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Africa

In 2018, approx. 42M ha of maize were harvested in Africa; picking up by 4.3% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when harvested area increased by 9.3% y-o-y. The level of maize harvested area peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Yield in Africa

The average maize yield stood at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2018, increasing by 1.8% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the maize yield reached its peak figure level at 2.1 tonne per ha in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2018, yield remained at a lower figure.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize exported in Africa amounted to 2.9M tonnes, falling by -6% against the previous year. In general, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2009 with an increase of 81% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 3.4M tonnes in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, maize exports totaled $615M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, maize exports, however, continue to indicate a mild expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 81% y-o-y. In that year, maize exports reached their peak of $1.1B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of maize exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2018, South Africa (2.2M tonnes) was the major exporter of maize, committing 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Uganda (336K tonnes), generating a 12% share of total exports. The following exporters – Zambia (113K tonnes), Tanzania (82K tonnes) and Burkina Faso (81K tonnes) – together made up 9.6% of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +11.0% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Tanzania (+20.0%), Burkina Faso (+11.9%) and Uganda (+10.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in Africa, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Zambia (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania and Burkina Faso increased by +52%, +7.7%, +2.5% and +2% percentage points, while Zambia (-2.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced.

In value terms, South Africa ($452M) remains the largest maize supplier in Africa, comprising 73% of total maize exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uganda ($70M), with a 11% share of total exports. It was followed by Zambia, with a 6.3% share.

In South Africa, maize exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Uganda (+9.5% per year) and Zambia (-3.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize export price in Africa amounted to $214 per tonne, falling by -6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the maize export price continues to indicate a drastic deduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when the export price increased by 15% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for maize reached their peak figure at $360 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($345 per tonne), while Burkina Faso ($145 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zambia, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the amount of maize imported in Africa amounted to 20M tonnes, growing by 2.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports increased by +18.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, maize imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, maize imports totaled $3.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated moderate growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, maize imports decreased by -14.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 40% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked at $4.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Egypt was the major importer of maize in Africa, with the volume of imports amounting to 9M tonnes, which was approx. 46% of total imports in 2018. Algeria (4.1M tonnes) held a 21% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Morocco (12%) and Tunisia (5%). Libya (749K tonnes), Kenya (530K tonnes) and Senegal (381K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to maize imports into Egypt stood at +6.6%. At the same time, Kenya (+16.3%), Senegal (+13.2%), Algeria (+5.5%), Tunisia (+4.3%), Libya (+3.4%) and Morocco (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing importer in Africa, with a CAGR of +16.3% from 2007-2018. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Morocco and Tunisia increased by +23%, +9.4%, +2.2%, +2% and +1.8% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Egypt ($1.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported maize in Africa, comprising 44% of total maize imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Algeria ($723M), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Morocco, with a 11% share.

In Egypt, maize imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Algeria (+3.1% per year) and Morocco (-0.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the maize import price in Africa amounted to $181 per tonne, declining by -8.9% against the previous year. Overall, the maize import price continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the import prices for maize attained their peak figure at $280 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Kenya ($224 per tonne) and Senegal ($217 per tonne), while Tunisia ($160 per tonne) and Libya ($164 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Case Study Reveals Bulk Terminal Pest Challenges

Information released in a case study by bulk terminal operator, HSE at Terminales Marítimos de Galicia (TMGA), is urging other terminal operators to reconsider their approach to effective pest control, as cargo fumigation isn’t making the cut and leaving too much risk for infestation. One of the causes identified is the presence of Weevils left behind long after lots have been shipped.

“We are finding that the pupae and larvae inside maize kernels in various consignments, and which were subjected to in-transit fumigation, are not affected by phosphine or phosphine generating fumigants and growing into weevils while cargoes are in storage,” said Javier Quintero Saavedra, head of HSE at Terminales Marítimos de Galicia (TMGA).

“Bulk terminals need to implement a fully integrated pest management plan. Operators must monitor silo temperatures and moisture and be able to spot insect and larvae infestations in large storage premises. They should also carry out regular cleaning of empty stores and better understand the use of different pesticides and their effects,” Saavedra added.

Balancing pest management while ensuring safety measures are in place is another challenge identified in the case study – which will be presented by Saavedra at this year’s  Association of Bulk Terminal Operator’s (ABTO) conference – Bulk Terminals,  in October.

“While grain cargoes are usually fumigated at origin or in-transit if larvae survive and evolve it can be a real issue for terminal operators,” ABTO CE Simon Gutteridge said. “It can write-off the whole consignment. There is obviously a strong case for fumigating cargoes stored in silos at discharge ports, especially where maize kernels are stored, but this is not without its own problems.”

As phosphine and methyl bromide are known as top chemical choices for fumigation, both are linked to high-risk health hazards including acute intoxication, hypoxia, asphyxiation, seafarer fatalities, and run the risk of leaks to other facilities. This risks and more will be discussed in detail during Saavedra’s presentation covering port-side fumigation.

“There are IMO guidelines for the use of pesticides in-transit, but the rules governing their use in storage facilities ashore is at national level. Although the European Commission oversees the approval of active substances, it is the individual state that decides whether to allow their use or not,” said Saavedra. “What the bulk terminals industry needs is more globally-focused best practice guidelines, an initiative supported both by ICHCA and ABTO.”