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European Pork Production is Supported by Strong Demand from China

pork
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European Pork Production is Supported by Strong Demand from China

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Pork (Meat Of Swine) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Despite the decline in pork consumption in the EU and the UK, domestic producers may receive support due to growing demand from China.

The European Union and the UK together are the largest pork supplier to the global market, and the second-largest consumer in the world, only China is ahead. On the contrary, producers in China are facing serious problems due to the forced reduction in animal numbers in the wake of the African swine fever epidemic.

According to FAO forecasts, pork production in China may fall to 34 million tonnes in 2020, which is almost 17 percent lower than in 2018. The shortage of products in the local market is offset by growing supplies, mainly from Europe and Latin America, in particular Brazil. The United States, the world’s second-largest pork exporter, is losing the Chinese market as a result of a protracted trade war with Beijing, which imposed a 72 percent tariff on US pork in 2019.

In 2020, Europeans can enjoy not only an increase in supplies to China but also rising world prices for pork. This is especially important when the borders for export to Russia are closed due to mutual sanctions. After four years, this market can be considered lost for the Europeans due to the rapidly growing production of Russian farmers.

Pork Production in the EU and the UK

In 2019, pork production in the European Union reached 24M tonnes and is likely to see steady growth in years to come. The countries with the highest volumes of pork production in 2019 were Germany (5.4M tonnes), Spain (4.6M tonnes), and France (2.2M tonnes), with a combined 53% share of total production.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals

In 2019, approx. 245M heads of animals slaughtered for pork production in the European Union; a decrease of 2% on 2018 figures. Overall, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the number of producing animals increased by 2% year-to-year.

Yield

In 2019, the average yield of pork in the European Union amounted to 93 kg per head, approximately mirroring the year before. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 1.8% year-to-year. The level of yield peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of pork consumption in 2019 were Germany (4.5M tonnes), Spain (3M tonnes), and Poland (2.4M tonnes), with a combined 47% share of total consumption.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($12.5B), Spain ($8.9B), and Italy ($5.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 50% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of pork per capita consumption in 2019 were Denmark (115 kg per person), Spain (65 kg per person) and Poland (62 kg per person).

Exports in the EU and the UK

In value terms, pork exports rose markedly to $20.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2009 to 2019. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, exports reached the peak figure at $21.2B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports failed to regain the momentum despite the recent increase in shipments to China.

Exports by Country

Germany (1.8M tonnes) and Spain (1.7M tonnes) were the main exporters of pork in 2019, recording near 23% and 22% of total exports, respectively. Denmark (958K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by the Netherlands (12%), Belgium (8.5%) and Poland (5.7%). France (351K tonnes) occupied a little share of total exports.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($5.1B), Germany ($5B) and Denmark ($2.7B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, together accounting for 62% of total exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and France, which together accounted for a further 27%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The pork export price in the European Union stood at $2,641 per tonne in 2019, picking up by 9.2% against the previous year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the countries with the highest prices were Spain ($2,978 per tonne) and Germany ($2,800 per tonne), while Poland ($2,146 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,186 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

dried onion
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Germany’s Dried Onion Market Was Finally on the Rise to Reach $53M in 2019

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Germany – Dried Onions – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the German dried onion market was finally on the rise to reach $53M after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the market value increased by 25% y-o-y. Dried onion consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Production in Germany

In 2019, production of dried onions increased by 4.2% to 5.7K tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, production saw a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 62% year-to-year. Dried onion production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, dried onion production amounted to $9.2M in 2019 estimated at export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 12% y-o-y. Dried onion production peaked at $9.5M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports into Germany

In 2019, overseas purchases of dried onions were finally on the rise to reach 22K tonnes after two years of decline. In value terms, dried onion imports rose rapidly to $53M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 20% y-o-y. As a result, imports reached a peak of $66M. From 2015 to 2019, the growth imports failed to regain the momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2019, India (8.2K tonnes) constituted the largest dried onion supplier to Germany, with a 37% share of total imports. Moreover, dried onion imports from India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Egypt (3K tonnes), threefold. China (2.8K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 12% share.

From 2009 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume from India amounted to +6.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Egypt (-7.7% per year) and China (+2.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest dried onion suppliers to Germany were India ($15M), China ($8.8M), and Egypt ($7.6M), together comprising 59% of total imports. The U.S., the UK, France, and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

In terms of the main suppliers, the UK recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the average dried onion import price amounted to $2,356 per tonne, with an increase of 7.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a mild setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 12% year-to-year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $2,861 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($3,202 per tonne), while the price for India ($1,780 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

frozen potatoes
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Britons Consume the Most Frozen Potatoes in the EU, nearly 70% Comes from the Netherlands and Belgium

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Frozen Potatoes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The UK is the largest market for frozen fries and, alongside Ireland, enjoys the highest per capita consumption in the union. The lion’s share of supplies, almost 760 thousand tonnes, comes from neighboring countries, namely the Netherlands and Belgium; thus making Britain the largest importer of frozen potatoes in Europe.

EU Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of frozen potato consumption in 2019 were the UK (1.1M tonnes), Germany (682K tonnes), and France (427K tonnes), together comprising 55% of total consumption. Spain, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Ireland, Belgium, Romania, and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of frozen potato consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Romania, while frozen potato consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($1.1B), Germany ($754M), and France ($391M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, with a combined 60% share of the total market. These countries were followed by Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Austria, which together accounted for a further 27%.

The countries with the highest levels of frozen potato per capita consumption in 2019 were Ireland (19 kg per person), the UK (17 kg per person), and the Czech Republic (12 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for frozen potato in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.4M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

In 2019, the EU’s frozen potato production decreased by -1.1% to 6.1M tonnes for the first time since 2011, thus ending a seven-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.7% y-o-y. As a result, production attained a peak volume of 6.2M tonnes and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, frozen potato production amounted to $5.6B in 2019 estimated at export prices.

EU Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of frozen potato production in 2019 were Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of frozen potato production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Belgium, while frozen potato production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

For the seventh consecutive year, the European Union recorded growth in supplies from abroad of frozen potatoes, which increased by 8% to 3.8M tonnes in 2019. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2009 to 2019.

In value terms, frozen potato imports expanded markedly to $3.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when imports increased by 21% against the previous year. The level of imports peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

The UK (759K tonnes) and France (636K tonnes) represented roughly 36% of total imports of frozen potatoes in 2019. The Netherlands (409K tonnes) took an 11% share (based on tonnes), which put it in second place, followed by Germany (9.4%), Spain (7.9%), Italy (6.7%), and Belgium (4.8%). The following importers – Poland (125K tonnes), Ireland (102K tonnes), Romania (86K tonnes), Greece (81K tonnes) and Portugal (79K tonnes) – together made up 12% of total imports.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Romania, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen potato importing markets in the European Union were the UK ($767M), France ($586M), and Germany ($400M), together comprising 48% of total imports. The Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, Greece, Portugal, and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the frozen potato import price in the European Union amounted to $949 per tonne, standing approx. at the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,174 per tonne), while Romania ($721 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

lemon and lime
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Driven by Strong Demand in the U.S., Global Lemon and Lime Imports Hit Record Highs

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Lemons And Limes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, after six years of growth, there was a decline in the global lemon and lime market, when its value decreased by -5% to $16.5B. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of 15% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $17.4B in 2018 and then fell modestly in the following year.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lemon and lime consumption in 2019 were India (3.2M tonnes), China (2.4M tonnes), and Mexico (1.9M tonnes), with a combined 38% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Argentina, the U.S., Brazil, Turkey, Spain, Italy, and Iran, which together accounted for a further 35%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while lemon and lime consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lemon and lime markets worldwide were China ($2.2B), India ($1.8B), and Argentina ($1.5B), with a combined 33% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Mexico, Brazil, the U.S., Italy, Spain, Turkey, and Iran, which together accounted for a further 34%.

In 2019, the highest levels of lemon and lime per capita consumption were registered in Argentina (40 kg per person), followed by Mexico (14 kg per person), Spain (10 kg per person) and Turkey (8.25 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lemon and lime was estimated at 2.54 kg per person.

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for lemon and lime worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 22M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production

For the seventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in the production of lemons and limes, which increased by 2.2% to 20M tonnes in 2019. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Global production peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. The generally positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by the slight growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lemon and lime production in 2019 were India (3.2M tonnes), Mexico (2.6M tonnes) and China (2.4M tonnes), together comprising 42% of global production. Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Turkey, the U.S., South Africa, Iran, Italy and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in South Africa, while lemon and lime production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area

In 2019, the total area harvested in terms of lemons and limes production worldwide reduced to 1.2M ha, dropping by -6.5% in 2018. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 16% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 1.3M ha, and then reduced in the following year.

Yield

The global average lemon and lime yield expanded markedly to 17 tonnes per ha in 2019, growing by 9.3% against the previous year’s figure. Overall, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average lemon and lime yield attained the peak level in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of lemons and limes, which increased by 3.1% to 3.7M tonnes in 2019. Overall, total imports indicated a moderate expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 12% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2019 and are likely to continue growing in years to come. In value terms, lemon and lime imports declined to $3.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

In 2019, the U.S. (793K tonnes), distantly followed by the Netherlands (247K tonnes), Russia (224K tonnes), Germany (212K tonnes), France (198K tonnes) and Iraq (168K tonnes) represented the largest importers of lemons and limes, together committing 50% of total imports. The UK (161K tonnes), Italy (154K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (131K tonnes), Canada (127K tonnes), Poland (125K tonnes) and the United Arab Emirates (80K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2007 to 2019. At the same time, Iraq (+9.8%), Canada (+6.6%), the Netherlands (+6.5%), Saudi Arabia (+6.4%), the United Arab Emirates (+5.3%), Italy (+4.5%), the UK (+4.3%), France (+4.2%), Germany (+3.5%) and Poland (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Iraq emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.8% from 2007-2019. Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern.

In value terms, the U.S. ($692M) constitutes the largest market for imported lemons and limes worldwide, comprising 18% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($322M), with a 8.5% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 7.7% share.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the average lemon and lime import price amounted to $1,022 per tonne, with a decrease of -5.2% against the previous year. Over the last twelve-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,144 per tonne in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,521 per tonne), while Iraq ($446 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

sheep meat
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The Middle Eastern Lamb And Sheep Meat Market to Post Measured Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Lamb And Sheep Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the lamb and sheep meat market in the Middle East amounted to $7.8B in 2019, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The level of lamb and sheep meat consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lamb and sheep meat consumption in 2019 were Turkey (371K tonnes), Iran (325K tonnes) and Syrian Arab Republic (158K tonnes), with a combined 63% share of total consumption. Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of lamb and sheep meat consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Qatar, while lamb and sheep meat consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lamb and sheep meat markets in the Middle East were Iran ($2.3B), Turkey ($2.1B) and Syrian Arab Republic ($952M), together accounting for 69% of the total market. These countries were followed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Qatar, Yemen, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman, which together accounted for a further 29%.

The countries with the highest levels of lamb and sheep meat per capita consumption in 2019 were Bahrain (16 kg per person), Qatar (13 kg per person) and Kuwait (12 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for lamb and sheep meat in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

In 2019, production of lamb and sheep meat increased by 1% to 1.2M tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 7.7% y-o-y. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of lamb and sheep meat production in 2019 were Turkey (371K tonnes), Iran (320K tonnes) and Syrian Arab Republic (158K tonnes), together comprising 71% of total production. These countries were followed by Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq and Kuwait, which together accounted for a further 20%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Yemen, while lamb and sheep meat production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals in the Middle East

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for lamb and sheep meat production in the Middle East totaled 56M heads, standing approx. at 2018 figures. Overall, the producing animals recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 when the number of producing animals increased by 8.6% year-to-year. The level of producing animals peaked in 2019 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Yield in the Middle East

In 2019, the average lamb and sheep meat yield in the Middle East reduced modestly to 21 kg per head, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2009 when the yield increased by 7.6% year-to-year. The level of yield peaked at 23 kg per head in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, the yield failed to regain the momentum.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2019, purchases abroad of lamb and sheep meat increased by 2.9% to 177K tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a three-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 with an increase of 17% y-o-y. The volume of import peaked at 197K tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lamb and sheep meat imports expanded rapidly to $1.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Total imports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Imports by Country

The purchases of the three major importers of lamb and sheep meat, namely the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, represented more than half of total import. Jordan (18K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by Kuwait (9%), Oman (7.2%) and Bahrain (4.6%).

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Qatar, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lamb and sheep meat importing markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($302M), Qatar ($218M) and Saudi Arabia ($217M), with a combined 68% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the lamb and sheep meat import price in the Middle East amounted to $6,132 per tonne, surging by 2.1% against the previous year. Import price indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, lamb and sheep meat import price increased by +27.0% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 27% year-to-year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Qatar ($7,170 per tonne), while Oman ($4,104 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Jordan, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

spice
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

The Global Spice Market Lacks to Regain its Former Momentum

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Spices – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global spice market amounted to $33.1B in 2019, leveling off at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total market indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $33.7B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

Consumption by Country

India (4.8M tonnes) remains the largest spice consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, spice consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Indonesia (634K tonnes), eightfold. Bangladesh (543K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.1% share.

In India, spice consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Indonesia (+1.9% per year) and Bangladesh (+2.1% per year).

In value terms, India ($8.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($1.9B). It was followed by Ethiopia.

In 2019, the highest levels of spice per capita consumption was registered in Nepal (14 kg per person), followed by Thailand (6.25 kg per person), Viet Nam (4 kg per person) and Turkey (3.71 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of spice was estimated at 1.69 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of the spice per capita consumption in Nepal amounted to +4.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Thailand (+2.3% per year) and Viet Nam (+6.9% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for spice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production

In 2019, the amount of spices produced worldwide rose modestly to 13M tonnes, growing by 4.3% against 2018 figures. Overall, the total output indicated moderate growth from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, production increased by +60.2% against 2007 indices. Global production peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate expansion of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

Production by Country

The country with the largest volume of spice production was India (5.7M tonnes), accounting for 42% of total volume. Moreover, spice production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (1.2M tonnes), fivefold. Indonesia (659K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.9% share.

In India, spice production increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+3.7% per year) and Indonesia (+1.0% per year).

Harvested Area

In 2019, the global harvested area of spices amounted to 6.7M ha, increasing by 3% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the harvested area increased by 7% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to spice production reached the maximum in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Yield

In 2019, the global average spice yield was estimated at 2 tonne per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 8.4% y-o-y. The global yield peaked at 2 tonne per ha in 2017; afterwards, it flattened through to 2019.

Imports

For the sixth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of spices, which increased by 2.8% to 3.5M tonnes in 2019. Overall, total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2019 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, spice imports totaled $10.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, imports recorded buoyant growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when imports increased by 25% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global imports also hit record highs in 2019 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2019, the U.S. (428K tonnes), followed by Viet Nam (190K tonnes) and India (172K tonnes) represented the main importers of spices, together making up 23% of total imports. The following importers – Bangladesh (154K tonnes), Malaysia (142K tonnes), Germany (137K tonnes), the Netherlands (131K tonnes), Pakistan (129K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (116K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (109K tonnes), Japan (107K tonnes) and the UK (104K tonnes) – together made up 33% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to spice imports into the U.S. stood at +3.9%. At the same time, Viet Nam (+28.4%), India (+8.2%), the Netherlands (+6.3%), the UK (+4.9%), Bangladesh (+4.6%), Saudi Arabia (+4.4%), Pakistan (+3.7%), Germany (+3.5%) and the United Arab Emirates (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Viet Nam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +28.4% from 2007-2019. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Viet Nam (+5.2 p.p.), the U.S. (+4.6 p.p.), India (+3.1 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2 p.p.) and Bangladesh (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($1.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported spices worldwide, comprising 16% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($597M), with a 5.7% share of global imports. It was followed by India, with a 5.1% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the U.S. amounted to +8.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+5.7% per year) and India (+12.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the average spice import price amounted to $3,034 per tonne, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the last twelve-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 19% year-to-year. Global import price peaked at $3,430 per tonne in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, import prices failed to regain the momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Germany ($4,374 per tonne), while Bangladesh ($1,132 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

cucumber
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Driven by Rising Demand in Russia and Ukraine, the East-European Cucumber and Gherkin Market to See Solid Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Eastern Europe – Cucumbers And Gherkins – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the East European cucumber and gherkin market increased by 9.1% to $4.5B, rising for the third consecutive year after four years of decline. The total consumption indicated notable growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +26.9% against 2016 indices.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cucumber and gherkin consumption in 2019 were Russia (1.8M tonnes), Ukraine (1M tonnes), and Poland (587K tonnes), with a combined 82% share of total consumption. Romania, Belarus, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cucumber and gherkin consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Bulgaria, while cucumber and gherkin consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($2.1B), Ukraine ($1.2B), and Poland ($560M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 87% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of cucumber and gherkin per capita consumption in 2019 were Ukraine (24 kg per person), Belarus (19 kg per person), and Poland (15 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for cucumber and gherkin in Eastern Europe, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.1M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in Eastern Europe

In 2019, the production of cucumbers and gherkins increased by 2.8% to 3.8M tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 16% y-o-y. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume at 3.9M tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The generally positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight contraction of the harvested area against a perceptible expansion in the yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cucumber and gherkin production in 2019 were Russia (1.7M tonnes), Ukraine (1M tonnes), and Poland (541K tonnes), with a combined 84% share of total production.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cucumber and gherkin production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Russia, while cucumber and gherkin production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area in Eastern Europe

In 2019, the cucumber and gherkin harvested area in Eastern Europe dropped to 131K ha, shrinking by -1.5% on 2018 figures. In general, the harvested area showed a slight shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 3.8% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 167K ha. From 2012 to 2019, the growth of the cucumber and gherkin harvested area failed to regain the momentum.

Yield in Eastern Europe

In 2019, the average yield of cucumbers and gherkins in Eastern Europe rose modestly to 29 tonnes per ha, increasing by 4.4% compared with 2018. The yield indicated a moderate increase from 2007 to 2019: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, cucumber and gherkin yield increased by +61.1% against 2007 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked in 2019 and is likely to see further growth in the immediate term.

Imports in Eastern Europe

In 2019, purchases abroad of cucumbers and gherkins increased by 6.5% to 419K tonnes, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The volume of imports peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cucumber and gherkin imports fell modestly to $372M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The level of import peaked at $375M in 2018, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2019, Russia (123K tonnes), distantly followed by the Czech Republic (77K tonnes), Poland (63K tonnes), Bulgaria (33K tonnes), Ukraine (26K tonnes), Hungary (21K tonnes), Romania (20K tonnes) and Slovakia (19K tonnes) were the main importers of cucumbers and gherkins, together making up 92% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Ukraine, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cucumber and gherkin importing markets in Eastern Europe were Russia ($127M), the Czech Republic ($65M) and Poland ($64M), with a combined 69% share of total imports. Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the cucumber and gherkin import price in Eastern Europe amounted to $889 per tonne, falling by -6.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 29% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked at $983 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Russia ($1,032 per tonne), while Ukraine ($425 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

maize
Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Asia’s Maize Market – Imports Will Grow Due to Rising Feed Demand

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Asian maize market was finally on the rise to reach $204.4B after two years of decline. The total consumption indicated buoyant growth from 2009 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached a peak level of $215.8B. From 2017 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Maize Consumption by Country

The country with the largest volume of maize consumption was China (274M tonnes), comprising approx. 60% of the total volume. Moreover, maize consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Indonesia (33M tonnes), eightfold. India (28M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.3% share.

From 2009 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +5.2%. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+6.4% per year) and India (+7.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($130.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($15.2B). It was followed by India.

The countries with the highest levels of maize per capita consumption in 2019 were South Korea (223 kg per person), China (188 kg per person), and Viet Nam (159 kg per person).

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Viet Nam, while maize per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production in Asia

In 2019, approx. 379M tonnes of maize were produced in Asia; rising by 4.8% on the year before. The total production indicated a noticeable increase from 2009 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. Based on 2019 figures, production increased by +61.8% against 2009 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 16% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country in Asia

China (270M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of maize production, accounting for 71% of total volume. Moreover, maize production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (33M tonnes), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (29M tonnes), with a 7.6% share.

In China, maize production increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2009-2019. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+6.3% per year) and India (+5.6% per year).

Amid concerns about the impact of COVID-19 on grain supplies, the Chinese government has taken a number of measures to preserve the area sown with corn, which canceled previous measures. As a result, production in the country in 2020 is projected at 260-265 million tons. In India, after record yields in 2019, a return to normal yields is expected to lead to a slight decrease in corn production, which is currently projected at 28.0 million tons.

Harvested Area in Asia

The maize harvested area rose modestly to 69M ha in 2019, increasing by 2.7% on 2018 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 12% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to maize production reached the maximum at 69M ha in 2016; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

Yield in Asia

In 2019, the average maize yield in Asia rose slightly to 5.5 tonnes per ha, picking up by 2.1% against the previous year’s figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when the yield increased by 5.2% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the maize yield hit record highs in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Maize Imports in Asia

In 2019, overseas purchases of maize increased by 7.7% to 77M tonnes, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Total imports indicated resilient growth from 2009 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +45.3% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 35% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, maize imports expanded notably to $15.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

In 2019, Japan (18M tonnes), distantly followed by South Korea (11M tonnes), Viet Nam (11M tonnes), Iran (10M tonnes), Taiwan (4.2M tonnes), Malaysia (4M tonnes) and China (3.9M tonnes) represented the main importers of maize, together generating 80% of total imports.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($3.5B), South Korea ($2.4B) and Viet Nam ($1.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together comprising 50% of total imports.

In 2020, the increases in imports are expected mainly due to rising feed demand. China’s (mainland) purchases from abroad can grow to 7 million tonnes amid relatively high domestic maize prices. It is expected that increased demand for maize imports in 2020 will be met by larger supplies from the United States, supported by sufficient domestic supplies from a projected record crop in 2020 and low prices.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the maize import price in Asia amounted to $200 per tonne, remaining constant against the previous year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in China ($222 per tonne) and Malaysia ($213 per tonne), while Viet Nam ($177 per tonne) and Iran ($182 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Iran, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

poultry
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Poultry Production to Reach 137M tonnes in 2020, Mainly Driven by Growth in China, the EU, and the UK

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Poultry – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global poultry market increased by 6% to $231.5B, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% from 2009 to 2019. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Global consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Poultry Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of poultry consumption in 2019 were China (20M tonnes), the U.S. (19M tonnes), and Brazil (12M tonnes), with a combined 40% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Russia, Mexico, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Malaysia, and Myanmar, which together accounted for a further 21%.

In value terms, China ($53.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($21.3B). It was followed by Brazil.

The countries with the highest levels of poultry per capita consumption in 2019 were Malaysia (63 kg per person), the U.S. (58 kg per person), and Brazil (57 kg per person).

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of poultry per capita consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Myanmar, while poultry per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2020-2030

Driven by increasing demand for poultry worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 166M tonnes by the end of 2030.

According to FAO forecasts, global poultry meat production will reach 137 million tonnes in 2020. Growth is expected in China, the EU, Britain, Brazil, and Mexico, while production decline is possible in India, Thailand, Turkey, and the U.S.

In China, poultry production is projected to grow, albeit slowly, due to relatively steady demand amid high pork prices. Although the discovery of new HPAI cases at the beginning of the year in some European countries forced China to ban imports of live birds from these suppliers. However, the impact on domestic production is likely to be limited, since the measure coincided with the lifting of the 2015 ban on imports of live poultry from the United States.

New investments in processing capacity are expected to increase poultry production in the EU and the UK. However, a positive outlook could become negative if the recent fall in prices associated with COVID-19 continues. Slaughter of birds in countries where new cases of HPAI have been diagnosed may also hinder production growth in the EU this year.

In Brazil, poultry production is projected to increase driven by growing demand for imports, especially in China, as well as in other countries that are attracted by Brazil’s status as a supplier of products with high biosafety standards.

Growth in poultry meat production is also projected to continue in South Africa due to strong consumer demand, and in Mexico because of competitive feed prices.

In contrast, poultry meat production in India is likely to decline as the outflow of labor from cities after the COVID-19 lockdown reduced the availability of workforce in this sector, which also led to a decrease in consumer demand.

Similarly, in Thailand, a sharp drop in demand for poultry meat from the food retail sector, including street food, is driving the expected decline in production. However, the prospects for production in 2020 could be positive if efforts by the government to persuade Asian countries, especially China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, to import more poultry meat are successful.

In the United States, declining food sales and labor shortages have led the sector to abandon expansion plans and reduce the share of large poultry production preferred by HoReCa. It is also reported that the requirements for maintaining distances between workspaces in processing plants reduce the efficiency of meat processing, which leads to a drop in production.

Global Poultry Production

In 2019, the amount of poultry produced worldwide expanded to 130M tonnes, growing by 3.7% against the previous year’s figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 4.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come. The generally positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a perceptible increase in the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of poultry production in 2019 were the U.S. (23M tonnes), China (20M tonnes), and Brazil (16M tonnes), with a combined 45% share of global production. Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Japan, Iran, Argentina, and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of poultry production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Russia, while poultry production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of poultry, which increased by 2.2% to 17M tonnes in 2019. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2009 to 2019.

In value terms, poultry exports rose to $27.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, global exports reached the maximum at $28.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Brazil (4M tonnes) and the U.S. (3.6M tonnes) represented the main exporters of poultry in 2019, resulting in at approx. 24% and 22% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (1.5M tonnes) and Poland (1.5M tonnes), together generating an 18% share of total exports. Belgium (509K tonnes), Turkey (493K tonnes), Germany (473K tonnes), France (398K tonnes), Ukraine (361K tonnes), the UK (359K tonnes), Hong Kong  (328K tonnes) and Thailand (295K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Ukraine, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest poultry supplying countries worldwide were Brazil ($6.5B), the U.S. ($3.7B), and Poland ($2.9B), with a combined 48% share of global exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Hong Kong, and the UK, which together accounted for a further 31%.

Export Prices by Country

The average poultry export price stood at $1,644 per tonne in 2019, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the average export price increased by 11% year-to-year. The global export price peaked at $1,893 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($2,683 per tonne), while the U.S. ($1,045 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

milk
Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Asia’s Milk Production Is Expected to Increase by 2% in 2020

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Whole Fresh Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

After four years of growth, the Asian whole fresh milk market decreased by -2.1% to $309.6B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the past decade. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 with an increase of 15% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $316.1B in 2018 and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Consumption by Country in Asia

India (198M tonnes) remains the largest whole fresh milk consuming country in Asia, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Pakistan (47M tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by China (35M tonnes), with a 9.6% share.

From 2009 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India totaled +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Pakistan (+3.2% per year) and China (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, India ($146.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Pakistan ($37.3B). It was followed by China.

The countries with the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption in 2019 were Uzbekistan (339 kg per person), Turkey (281 kg per person), and Pakistan (231 kg per person).

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Uzbekistan, while whole fresh milk per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2020-2030

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 477M tonnes by the end of 2030.

According to FAO projections, Asian production is expected to increase by 2% in 2020 due to expected growth in India, Pakistan, and China, while Turkey may experience a decline. India, the world’s largest milk producer, is projected to increase production by 2.6 percent, or 5 million tonnes. The increase expected this year reflects the efforts of the vast network of rural cooperatives that have been mobilized to maintain milk collection despite the pandemic lockdown. Given the loss of sales in the foodservice industry due to the COVID-19 lockdown, large volumes of milk were sent for processing to drying plants, which were reported to operate at almost full capacity.

Pakistan’s milk production is projected to increase by an average of 3% due to an increase in the herd population.

In China, where the sector has been recovering since 2018, it is projected that milk production will increase by almost 3% in 2020, amid ongoing consolidation of farms and increased efficiency of large dairy enterprises. The introduction of stringent food safety standards by the government has also increased consumer confidence in Chinese milk, which has helped support domestic production growth.

According to FAO forecasts, milk production in Japan will grow, which will be supported by the government measures offered to farmers to manage excess milk supplies and stabilize prices. This is despite a drop in milk consumption in the first months of the year after the government declared a state of emergency and closed schools amid concerns about COVID-19.

Production in Asia

In 2019, production of whole fresh milk in Asia rose to 368M tonnes, picking up by 3.8% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 4.8% y-o-y. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. The generally positive trend in terms of output was largely conditioned by a moderate increase in the number of producing animals and a tangible expansion in yield figures.

Production By Country in Asia

India (198M tonnes) remains the largest whole fresh milk producing country in Asia, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (47M tonnes), fourfold. China (35M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.5% share.

In India, whole fresh milk production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2009-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Pakistan (+3.2% per year) and China (-1.4% per year).

Producing Animals in Asia

In 2019, the amount of producing animals in Asia expanded modestly to 427M heads, rising by 1.8% against the previous year. This number increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. The level of producing animals peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Yield in Asia

The average whole fresh milk yield amounted to 860 kg per head in 2019, picking up by 2% on the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 5.2% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the whole fresh milk yield attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports in Asia

In 2019, after two years of decline, there was growth in overseas shipments of whole fresh milk, when their volume increased by 2.6% to 305K tonnes. Total exports indicated moderate growth from 2009 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. Based on 2019 figures, exports decreased by -27.9% against 2014 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 50% y-o-y. The volume of export peaked at 423K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports expanded to $311M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of whole fresh milk, namely Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Thailand, China, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, India, Kyrgyzstan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and Viet Nam, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (+53.2% per year), while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Kuwait ($62M), Thailand ($49M), and Turkey ($25M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 44% share of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Pakistan, India, Viet Nam, and Kyrgyzstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

Kazakhstan saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The whole fresh milk export price in Asia stood at $1,020 per tonne in 2019, approximately reflecting the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was  Hong Kong SAR ($2,147 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($423 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform