Trending Now

Navigating the Long-Term Consequences of the Red Sea Crisis for…

New Articles

Global Trade: 2019 Wrap-Up and 2020 Forecast

global trade
Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Global Trade: 2019 Wrap-Up and 2020 Forecast

Leave a comment

Looking back at this year, 2019 saw a multitude of global economic growth disruptors from the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China, to Germany’s manufacturing and automotive decline and Brexit.

Consequentially, global trade growth has almost come to a standstill, and while it’s not quite at recession levels, nearly every market and sector, as well as businesses within those sectors, have felt the impact of policies and decision making.

Even with the possibility that trade growth could rebound in 2020 to a modest 1.5%, economic policy uncertainty remains high and if it abates, it is likely only to do so to a limited extent into 2020. What factors are at play? Let’s take a look.

Trade war with China. Despite the recent conclusion of ‘phase one’ of a U.S.-China trade deal, uncertainty remains high. The underlying reason for the trade war is not resolved and is unlikely to be resolved soon either: it regards fundamental issues such as the influence of China on the global economy and theft of intellectual property. Although tensions may temporarily soften, as they seem to do now, we see no end in sight for the trade war with China and with the current administration in the White House for one more year, another rocky year is forecasted. The trade war alone is affecting no more than almost 3% of global trade — currently approximately $550 billion of goods — but it is sending a ripple effect around the globe from business investment to value chains and trade flows. If it expands to other economies in Asia and Europe, which is very possible, we could see an even more pronounced slowing in trade.

Brexit. The self-imposed economic hardship has caused much uncertainty and plummeting fixed investments in the business sector. With Boris Johnson elected to Prime Minister in the December election and Brexit a certainty come January 31, policy uncertainty has been lessened, but some will remain until a new trade relationship with the EU is shaped. While the clout of those favoring a no-deal Brexit has been diminished, a no-deal Brexit is still possible. If this occurs, it would throw chaos into supply chains across Europe.

Business insolvencies and market pressure. The U.S. is expected to lead the number of business insolvencies with a 3.9% increase in 2020, far above the global average of 2.6% expected next year. This is due to the fact that there’s been lower business investment, lower external demand (especially from China), and higher import and labor costs. Those sectors feeling the most pressure include steel, which is dealing with an overcapacity issue, automotive, and businesses dealing in aircraft, which have seen a 20% market share loss. U.S. businesses dealing in vegetable and animal products and agriculture won’t see any relief soon either, and all U.S. businesses that have typically relied on imports from China (as well as businesses in China relying on imports from the U.S.) are now facing higher costs, which are resulting in insolvencies.

Despite all the economic doom and gloom, there are a few bright spots. Indeed, the ‘phase one’ agreement between the U.S. and China provides at least hope. Moreover, the U.S. signed trade agreements with Japan, Canada, and Mexico, and a few countries, like India and China, which are pulling their weight with a 6% GDP growth rate, are providing some positive impact on the global figure as they continue to grow at rapid pace, that is to say above 5% per annum.

Further, the consumer outlook looks positive with household consumption in both North America and Europe ending on a high note, thanks to low unemployment. Unfortunately, this alone cannot support economic growth. Low-interest rates and the amount of money floating around the U.S. as well as Europe could give rise to turmoil in the markets and the economy – both pillars of global growth – and any detriment to consumer confidence could put the economy in a downward spiral, reversing the modest growth expectations set for 2020.

There is much at stake and a low likelihood of that changing for 2020. If economic and political developments continue to sour, economic growth could be hampered even more than it already is.

__________________________________________________________________

John Lorié is Chief Economist at Atradius Credit Insurance, having joined the company in April 2011. He is also affiliated to the University of Amsterdam as a researcher. Previously, he was Senior Vice President at ABN AMRO, where he worked for more than 20 years in a variety of roles. He started his career in the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. John holds a PHD in international economics, masters’ degrees in economics (honours) and tax economics as well as a bachelor’s degree in marketing.

beet
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

European Beet-Pulp And Bagasse Market Amounted to $1.8B in 2018

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Beet-Pulp And Bagasse – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the beet-pulp and bagasse market in the European Union amounted to $1.8B in 2018, going up by 9.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, beet-pulp and bagasse consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the market value increased by 20% y-o-y. The level of beet-pulp and bagasse consumption peaked at $2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of beet-pulp and bagasse consumption in 2018 were Germany (2.5M tonnes), the UK (2.2M tonnes) and France (2.1M tonnes), with a combined 44% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Belgium, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Italy, Sweden, Austria and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 45%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of beet-pulp and bagasse consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Austria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beet-pulp and bagasse markets in the European Union were the UK ($391M), Spain ($248M) and Germany ($225M), with a combined 47% share of the total market. These countries were followed by France, the Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Belgium and Poland, which together accounted for a further 40%.

In 2018, the highest levels of beet-pulp and bagasse per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (131 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (49 kg per person), Austria (42 kg per person) and Sweden (41 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of beet-pulp and bagasse was estimated at 31 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the beet-pulp and bagasse per capita consumption in Belgium stood at +3.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (-2.6% per year) and Austria (+5.5% per year).

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 15M tonnes of beet-pulp and bagasse were produced in the European Union; surging by 2% against the previous year. In general, beet-pulp and bagasse production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when production volume increased by 16% y-o-y. The volume of beet-pulp and bagasse production peaked at 16M tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, beet-pulp and bagasse production amounted to $1.8B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, beet-pulp and bagasse production, however, continues to indicate a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 24% year-to-year. In that year, beet-pulp and bagasse production reached its peak level of $2.5B. From 2014 to 2018, beet-pulp and bagasse production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of beet-pulp and bagasse production in 2018 were France (2.9M tonnes), Germany (2.5M tonnes) and the UK (1.9M tonnes), with a combined 50% share of total production. These countries were followed by Spain, Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Austria, Sweden, Hungary and Bulgaria, which together accounted for a further 42%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of beet-pulp and bagasse production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

The exports totaled 1.7M tonnes in 2018, picking up by 14% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when exports increased by 18% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 1.9M tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, beet-pulp and bagasse exports amounted to $309M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated prominent growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, beet-pulp and bagasse exports increased by +40.7% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 30% y-o-y. The level of exports peaked at $321M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

France represented the major exporting country with an export of around 767K tonnes, which accounted for 45% of total exports. Slovenia (159K tonnes) held a 9.3% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (8.4%), Belgium (7.6%), the Czech Republic (6.5%), Austria (6.3%) and Germany (6%).

Exports from France increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Austria (+10.7%), the Czech Republic (+9.6%) and Slovenia (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Austria emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +10.7% from 2007-2018. Belgium and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-5.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of France, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia increased by +20%, +4.3%, +4.1% and +3.4% percentage points, while Germany (-4.6 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, France ($153M) remains the largest beet-pulp and bagasse supplier in the European Union, comprising 50% of total beet-pulp and bagasse exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Belgium ($28M), with a 9% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 8.8% share.

In France, beet-pulp and bagasse exports increased at an average annual rate of +8.1% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (+7.7% per year) and the Netherlands (+1.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The beet-pulp and bagasse export price in the European Union stood at $182 per tonne in 2018, going up by 15% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the export price increased by 32% y-o-y. The level of export price peaked at $192 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($216 per tonne), while Germany ($120 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 2.9M tonnes of beet-pulp and bagasse were imported in the European Union; surging by 5.1% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, beet-pulp and bagasse imports increased by +18.8% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 with an increase of 31% year-to-year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, beet-pulp and bagasse imports totaled $509M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, beet-pulp and bagasse imports increased by +28.3% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when imports increased by 36% y-o-y. Over the period under review, beet-pulp and bagasse imports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

The imports of the eight major importers of beet-pulp and bagasse, namely Belgium, Italy, the UK, Latvia, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and Denmark, represented more than two-thirds of total import.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the UK, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beet-pulp and bagasse importing markets in the European Union were Belgium ($85M), Italy ($75M) and the UK ($63M), together comprising 44% of total imports.

The UK recorded the highest growth rate of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The beet-pulp and bagasse import price in the European Union stood at $178 per tonne in 2018, surging by 11% against the previous year. In general, the beet-pulp and bagasse import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the import price increased by 41% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the import prices for beet-pulp and bagasse attained their peak figure at $207 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the UK ($213 per tonne), while Latvia ($116 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

equine leather
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Italy’s Exports of Bovine Leather into China Continues to Decline

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Italy – Leather Of Bovine And Equine Animals – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the bovine and equine leather market in Italy amounted to $1.8B in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, bovine and equine leather consumption continues to indicate a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Bovine and equine leather consumption peaked at $2.4B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in Italy

In 2018, the amount of leather of bovine and equine animals produced in Italy totaled 428K tonnes, falling by -7.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, bovine and equine leather production continues to indicate a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Bovine and equine leather production peaked at 522K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, bovine and equine leather production amounted to $1.7B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, bovine and equine leather production continues to indicate a slight deduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when production volume increased by 44% year-to-year. Bovine and equine leather production peaked at $1.9B in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports from Italy

In 2018, the amount of leather of bovine and equine animals exported from Italy amounted to 283K tonnes, waning by -2.7% against the previous year. Overall, bovine and equine leather exports continue to indicate a significant deduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when exports increased by 13% year-to-year. Exports peaked at 410K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, bovine and equine leather exports stood at $3.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, bovine and equine leather exports continue to indicate a mild decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. Exports peaked at $4.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

China (92K tonnes) was the main destination for bovine and equine leather exports from Italy, accounting for a 32% share of total exports. Moreover, bovine and equine leather exports to China exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Viet Nam (36K tonnes), threefold. Spain (18K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 6.2% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to China amounted to -1.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Viet Nam (+15.7% per year) and Spain (-3.0% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for bovine and equine leather exported from Italy were Romania ($284M), China, Hong Kong SAR ($265M) and the U.S. ($247M), with a combined 23% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Viet Nam, China, Spain, Poland, France, Germany, Portugal, India and Austria, which together accounted for a further 41%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Viet Nam experienced the highest growth rate of exports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average bovine and equine leather export price stood at $12,383 per tonne in 2018, growing by 5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 an increase of 21% year-to-year. The export price peaked at $14,278 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($33,326 per tonne), while the average price for exports to China ($2,238 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Romania, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Italy

In 2018, approx. 318K tonnes of leather of bovine and equine animals were imported into Italy; remaining constant against the previous year. Over the period under review, bovine and equine leather imports continue to indicate a temperate decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when imports increased by 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, bovine and equine leather imports attained their maximum at 441K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, bovine and equine leather imports amounted to $1.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, bovine and equine leather imports continue to indicate a moderate reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 50% y-o-y. Imports peaked at $2.4B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Brazil (90K tonnes) constituted the largest bovine and equine leather supplier to Italy, with a 28% share of total imports. Moreover, bovine and equine leather imports from Brazil exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the U.S. (38K tonnes), twofold. Paraguay (20K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 6.2% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Brazil stood at -1.6%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the U.S. (+0.4% per year) and Paraguay (+15.7% per year).

In value terms, Brazil ($319M), the U.S. ($209M) and Russia ($130M) constituted the largest bovine and equine leather suppliers to Italy, with a combined 40% share of total imports. These countries were followed by New Zealand, the UK, Paraguay, Ukraine, South Africa, Australia, Kenya, Bolivia and Venezuela, which together accounted for a further 18%.

Paraguay experienced the highest growth rate of imports, among the main suppliers over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average bovine and equine leather import price stood at $5,216 per tonne in 2018, declining by -1.8% against the previous year. In general, the bovine and equine leather import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 27% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $5,755 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Russia ($10,205 per tonne), while the price for Venezuela ($1,538 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

potatoes
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

UK’s Dependence on Imports of Frozen Potatoes Increases Markedly

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘United Kingdom – Frozen Potatoes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the frozen potato market in the UK amounted to $1.5B in 2018, declining by -2.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, frozen potato consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the frozen potato market reached its maximum level at $1.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in the UK

In 2018, approx. 458K tonnes of frozen potatoes were produced in the UK; approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, frozen potato production continues to indicate a moderate contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 when production volume increased by 6.1% against the previous year. In that year, frozen potato production attained its peak volume of 657K tonnes. From 2013 to 2018, frozen potato production growth failed to regain its momentum. In value terms, frozen potato production amounted to $651M in 2018 estimated in export prices.

Imports into the UK

In 2018, the amount of frozen potatoes imported into the UK totaled 663K tonnes which remained relatively stable against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, frozen potato imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future. In value terms, frozen potato imports amounted to $641M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The Netherlands (370K tonnes) and Belgium (268K tonnes) constitute the main suppliers of frozen potato imports to the UK, with a combined 96% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Belgium.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($359M) and Belgium ($255M) appeared to be the largest frozen potato suppliers to the UK, together comprising 96% of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The average frozen potato import price stood at $967 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 5.6% against the previous year. Overall, the frozen potato import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average import prices for frozen potatoes attained their peak figure at $1,094 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($969 per tonne), while the price for Belgium stood at $954 per tonne. From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

EU Citrus Fruit Market Reached to $12B in 2018

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Citrus Fruit – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the citrus fruit market in the European Union amounted to $12B in 2018, increasing by 2.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years.

The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008, with an increase of 22% against the previous year. In that year, the citrus fruit market attained its peak level of $12.7B. From 2009 to 2018, the growth of the citrus fruit market remained at a lower figure.

Production in the EU

The citrus fruit production stood at 11M tonnes in 2018, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, citrus fruit production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 4.8M tonnes of citrus fruits were exported in the European Union; coming down by -9.1% against the previous year. Overall, citrus fruit exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, citrus fruit exports stood at $5.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Spain prevails in citrus fruit exports structure, recording 3.2M tonnes, which was approx. 66% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Greece (357K tonnes), the Netherlands (296K tonnes) and Italy (252K tonnes), together generating 19% share of total exports. Germany (215K tonnes), Portugal (174K tonnes) and France (105K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Spain decreased at an average annual rate of -1.3% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Portugal (+16.9%), Germany (+7.3%), Greece (+3.4%) and France (+2.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Portugal emerged as the fastest growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +16.9% from 2007-2018. The Netherlands and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Spain (10%) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Greece, Germany and Portugal saw its share reduced by -2.3%, -2.4% and -3% from 2007 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Spain ($3.5B) remains the largest citrus fruit supplier in the European Union, comprising 69% of total citrus fruit exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($354M), with a 7% share of total exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 5.3% share.

Export Prices by Country

The citrus fruit export price in the European Union stood at $1,046 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest export price was Germany ($1,245 per tonne), while Greece ($557 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Portugal, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

The imports stood at 6.7M tonnes in 2018, dropping by -6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, citrus fruit imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, citrus fruit imports totaled $6.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of citrus fruit imports in 2018 were France (1.2M tonnes), Germany (1.1M tonnes) and the Netherlands (1.1M tonnes), together reaching 51% of total import. The UK (602K tonnes) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Italy (369K tonnes), Poland (357K tonnes) and Spain (349K tonnes). All these countries together took near 25% share of total imports. Romania (269K tonnes), Portugal (183K tonnes), Sweden (160K tonnes), the Czech Republic (145K tonnes) and Belgium (141K tonnes) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Portugal, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($1.2B), Germany ($1.1B) and the Netherlands ($979M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 52% share of total imports. These countries were followed by the UK, Italy, Poland, Spain, Romania, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 37%.

Import Prices by Country

The citrus fruit import price in the European Union stood at $933 per tonne in 2018, flattening at the previous year. In general, the citrus fruit import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was Belgium ($1,135 per tonne), while Romania ($745 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

olives
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Spanish Olives in the Pits Over U.S.-EU Trade Tensions

Leave a comment

You’d be hard pressed to find a recipe that doesn’t start with a couple tablespoons of olive oil. Whether you’re roasting pumpkin seeds or dressing a salad, a bottle of EVOO is a must in most kitchen pantries.

Olive oil is a critical ingredient in the Mediterranean diet, known as one of the healthiest diets in history (it’s even been dubbed an “intangible cultural heritage” by UNESCO). Its popularity has been building in the United States since the 1990s and has skyrocketed in recent years. Americans now consume 90 million gallons of “liquid gold” each year. But since we produce just five percent of the amount we consume each year, Americans are dependent on imports from other countries, mainly Spain and Italy, to keep us well stocked.

Ripe olives are a critical ingredient for olive oil. They’ve also been ripe with trade tension over the past two years. Spanish black olives, green olives and olive oil have all been embroiled in two recent trade disputes between the United States and the European Union (EU), resulting in higher tariffs and increased prices of Spanish olives and olive oils for U.S. consumers.

Americans consume 90 million gallons of olive oil annually

The art of olive oil

Autumn marks the start of olive harvesting season across the globe. Olives grow on trees in subtropical climates, turning from green to purple and ultimately black by the end of fall.

To make olive oil, fresh olives are picked or shaken from trees in fields and then rushed to the mill, where they are cleaned and ground into a paste. The paste is stirred with water to release oil droplets, and then spun in a centrifuge which separates the oil from the water, leaving fresh olive oil behind. It takes up to 11 pounds of olives to produce just one liter of olive oil.

The art of olive oil production was perfected by the Romans. Oil from Hispania (modern-day Spain) was the most prized in the Roman Empire. Spain has continued the tradition and is the world’s largest producer of olives and olive oil today. It produces nearly 1.3 million tons of olive oil a year, with 80 percent produced in its southern Andalusia region.

Ground and spun

United States consumption of olive oil has increased 257 percent since the 1990s. In addition to reading about olive oil in your cookbook, you may have also read about it in news headlines recently, due to an ongoing dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) involving airplanes.

US consumption of olive oil since 1990

This September the United States won the largest WTO arbitration award ever over illegal EU subsidies to its aircraft industry. The WTO approved the United States to levy up to $7.5 billion a year in retaliatory tariffs on EU products until they remove the subsidies.

Following the WTO ruling, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that the U.S. will implement tariffs of 10 percent on civilian aircraft and 25 percent tariffs on a long list of EU products like butter, cheeses and whiskies starting October 18. The list also included green olives and olive oil from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Other major European olive oil producers, Italy and Greece, were not included.

This 25 percent tariff is a double whammy for Spanish olive producers, who were hit with U.S. duties on ripe black olive exports last year.

In the pit of the olive dispute

In August 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed duties of up to 27 percent on Spanish black olive exports as part of an antidumping and countervailing duty case initiated by Californian olive growers.

California growers argued that Spanish black olives were being dumped in the United States market at lower prices than the domestic market in Spain, and that subsidies under the European Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) were allowing Spanish producers to benefit from an unfair advantage. After an investigation, the Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission agreed with the California growers’ assertions and placed duties on Spanish imports.

In January 2019, the EU took the case to the WTO arguing that the EU’s CAP program is in line with WTO rules and thus the United State may not apply countervailing duties on Spanish olive imports. The EU sees the case as having “far-reaching consequences” since the case effectively challenges the EU’s agricultural model. WTO members have agreed to the EU’s request for a dispute panel to review the U.S. tariffs.

In the meantime, Spanish producers are already feeling the pain. In 2017, before the tariffs were imposed, the United States imported an estimated $67.6 million worth of ripe olives from Spain. In the first two months after the U.S. imposed tariffs, exports fell by 72 percent, according to the Spanish Association of Olive Exporters.

The overall impact of the tariffs is estimated at 350 and 700 million euros over the next five to 10 years, according to a March 2018 European Parliament report. The tariffs could even “potentially lead to the end of Spanish ripe olive exports,” the report says.

To make matters worse for Spanish olive producers, olive oil prices have dropped significantly over the last two years. Reuters reported that tens of thousands of olive producers from southern Spain marched to Madrid in October in protest of low prices and U.S. tariffs.

Where is the olive branch?

Throughout history olive branches have been used to symbolize peace. However, in recent years olives have become a source of argument between the United States and the European Union, and have also been caught in the crosshairs of other trade disputes.

Olives are just one item on a long list of trade issues between the United States and the European Union. The two shelved Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) talks in 2016. They restarted bilateral talks in July 2018, where they agreed to work toward zero tariffs, but have since stalled over U.S. demands to include agriculture in the discussions, which the EU has not agreed.

Unfortunately for Spanish olive producers looking for relief from U.S. tariffs, a deal soon does not look likely. And olive oil, unlike wine, does not get better with age.

________________________________________________________________

Lauren Kyger

 

Lauren Kyger is Associate Editor for TradeVistas. Prior to joining TradeVistas, she was a Research Associate at the Hinrich Foundation focused on international trade issues. She is a Hinrich Foundation Global Trade Leader Scholar alumna, earning her Master’s degree in Global Business Journalism from Tsinghua University in Beijing. She received her Bachelor’s degree from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.
vinegar
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Germany’s Vinegar Market to Continue Moderate But Robust Growth

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Germany – Vinegar – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the vinegar market in Germany amounted to $137M in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the market revenue continues to indicate a slight decline. However, the volume of consumption in physical terms continues to increase robustly. The volume of the vinegar market in Germany amounted to 232M liters in 2018, rising by +5.6% against the previous year.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Germany

Driven by increasing demand for vinegar in Germany, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend in the medium term. The market volume is forecast to continue moderate growth, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 247M liters by the end of 2025.

Production in Germany

Vinegar production in Germany totaled 211M litres in 2018, rising by 5.4% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2009 with an increase of 9% y-o-y. Over the period under review, vinegar production attained its maximum volume in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports into Germany

In 2018, the amount of vinegar imported into Germany stood at 60M litres, growing by 4.9% against the previous year. In value terms, vinegar imports amounted to $86M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, the total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, vinegar imports increased by +43.9% against 2015 indices. Thus, vinegar imports attained their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Italy (38M litres) constituted the largest vinegar supplier to Germany, with a 63% share of total imports. Moreover, vinegar imports from Italy exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Austria (6.8M litres), sixfold. Greece (3.6M litres) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 6% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Italy amounted to +2.4%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Austria (+15.2% per year) and Greece (+13.1% per year).

In value terms, Italy ($65M) also constituted the largest supplier of vinegar to Germany, comprising 76% of total vinegar imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Austria ($7.4M), with a 8.6% share of total imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 2.8% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average vinegar import price stood at $1.4 per litre in 2018, surging by 7.9% against the previous year. In general, the vinegar import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2009 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $1.8 per litre in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy ($1.7 per litre), while the price for Greece ($0.4 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

rapeseed oil
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

EU Rapeseed Oil Market Overcame $12B, Growing Robustly For The Third Consecutive Year

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Rapeseed Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the rapeseed oil market in the European Union amounted to $12.6B in 2018, jumping by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008, with an increase of 34% against the previous year. The level of rapeseed oil consumption peaked in 2018, and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 13M tonnes of rapeseed oil were produced in the European Union; increasing by 6.7% against the previous year. The total output indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the rapeseed oil production increased by +51.7% against 2011 indices.

Exports in the EU

The exports totaled 2.4M tonnes in 2018, dropping by -18.8% against the previous year. In general, rapeseed oil exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, rapeseed oil exports totaled $2.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Germany represented the major exporter of rapeseed oil in the European Union, with the volume of exports finishing at 819K tonnes, which was near 35% of total exports in 2018. Belgium (249K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 11% share, followed by France (10%), the Netherlands (9.8%) and the Czech Republic (9.7%). Denmark (99K tonnes), the UK (96K tonnes), Poland (76K tonnes), Austria (52K tonnes), Lithuania (48K tonnes) and Estonia (42K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to rapeseed oil exports from Germany stood at +10.2%. At the same time, the Czech Republic (+13.2%), Austria (+10.5%), Lithuania (+8.6%), Estonia (+5.7%) and Belgium (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Czech Republic emerged as the fastest growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +13.2% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Denmark (-2.1%), France (-3.5%), the Netherlands (-6.0%), Poland (-10.0%) and the UK (-10.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The UK (10%), the Netherlands (9.5%), Poland (6.9%) and France (4.9%) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Belgium, the Czech Republic and Germany saw its share reduced by -1.9%, -7.2% and -22.7% from 2007 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($743M) remains the largest rapeseed oil supplier in the European Union, comprising 31% of total rapeseed oil exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Czech Republic ($301M), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 10% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the rapeseed oil export price in the European Union amounted to $999 per tonne, picking up by 3% against the previous year. Overall, the rapeseed oil export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was the Czech Republic ($1,309 per tonne), while Lithuania ($842 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by the Czech Republic, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, imports of rapeseed oil in the European Union amounted to 2.3M tonnes, shrinking by -3.4% against the previous year.In value terms, rapeseed oil imports amounted to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The Netherlands represented the main importing country with an import of about 715K tonnes, which finished at 31% of total imports. Belgium (253K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 11% share, followed by Germany (10%), France (6.7%), Sweden (4.9%) and Austria (4.7%). The following importers – Lithuania (94K tonnes), the UK (84K tonnes), Italy (82K tonnes), Poland (81K tonnes), Denmark (56K tonnes) and Hungary (52K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to rapeseed oil imports into the Netherlands stood at +7.3%. At the same time, Lithuania (+9.0%), Sweden (+6.8%), the UK (+5.2%), Hungary (+4.1%), Poland (+4.1%) and Belgium (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lithuania emerged as the fastest growing importer in the European Union, with a CAGR of +9.0% from 2007-2018. Denmark experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Austria (-1.2%), France (-3.8%), Italy (-8.1%) and Germany (-11.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Germany (31%), Italy (5.5%) and France (3.5%) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the UK, Belgium, Lithuania, Sweden and the Netherlands saw its share reduced by -1.6%, -2.2%, -2.5%, -2.5% and -16.8% from 2007 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($624M) constitutes the largest market for imported rapeseed oil in the European Union, comprising 30% of total rapeseed oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($239M), with a 11% share of total imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 11% share.

Import Prices by Country

The rapeseed oil import price in the European Union stood at $920 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -4.5% against the previous year. In general, the rapeseed oil import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Average import prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following import prices: in France ($1,053 per tonne) and Germany ($1,002 per tonne), while Lithuania ($800 per tonne) and Austria ($860 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

animal feeding
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Animal Feeding Preparations Market in the EU to Continue Measured Growth

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Preparations Used In Animal Feeding – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the market for preparations for animal feeding in the European Union amounted to $64.4B in 2018, stabilizing at the previous year’s level. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, preparations for animal feeding consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the market value increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the preparations for animal feeding market attained its peak figure level at $76.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of preparations for animal feeding consumption in 2018 were Spain (25M tonnes), Germany (25M tonnes) and France (22M tonnes), together accounting for 43% of total consumption. The UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of preparations for animal feeding consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($10B), Germany ($9.5B) and the UK ($8.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, together comprising 43% of the total market. Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

The countries with the highest levels of preparations for animal feeding per capita consumption in 2018 were the Netherlands (894 kg per person), Belgium (684 kg per person) and Spain (548 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of preparations for animal feeding per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in the EU

Driven by increasing demand for preparations for animal feeding in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 181M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in the EU

The preparations for animal feeding production amounted to 171M tonnes in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of preparations for animal feeding production in 2018 were Spain (26M tonnes), Germany (26M tonnes) and France (22M tonnes), with a combined 43% share of total production. These countries were followed by the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 39%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of preparations for animal feeding production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 16M tonnes of preparations used in animal feeding were exported in the European Union; going down by -2% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, preparations for animal feeding exports attained their maximum at 16M tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, preparations for animal feeding exports stood at $18B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, preparations for animal feeding exports increased by +20.0% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, preparations for animal feeding exports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (3,613K tonnes), Germany (2,709K tonnes), Belgium (1,862K tonnes) and France (1,464K tonnes) represented roughly 60% of total exports of preparations used in animal feeding in 2018. Italy (849K tonnes) held the next position in the ranking, followed by the UK (817K tonnes) and Poland (742K tonnes). All these countries together held near 15% share of total exports. The following exporters – Hungary (703K tonnes), Spain (616K tonnes), the Czech Republic (529K tonnes), Denmark (446K tonnes) and Austria (383K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

The preparations for animal feeding export price in the European Union stood at $1,128 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 7.1% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was France ($1,752 per tonne), while the Netherlands ($899 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 14M tonnes of preparations used in animal feeding were imported in the European Union; remaining stable against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, preparations for animal feeding imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, preparations for animal feeding imports totaled $14.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Germany (2,070K tonnes), the Netherlands (1,925K tonnes), Belgium (1,606K tonnes), France (1,251K tonnes), the UK (1,136K tonnes), Poland (760K tonnes), Italy (623K tonnes), Ireland (456K tonnes), Spain (423K tonnes), Denmark (412K tonnes), Portugal (395K tonnes) and the Czech Republic (358K tonnes) represented roughly 84% of total imports of preparations used in animal feeding in 2018.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Czech Republic, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

soya
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

European Soya Sauce Market to Keep Growing Modestly in the Near Future

Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Soya Sauce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the revenue of the EU’s soya sauce market reached $704M in 2018. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of soya sauce consumption in 2018 were Germany (28K tonnes), France (20K tonnes) and the UK (19K tonnes), with a combined 44% share of total consumption. The Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Romania, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of soya sauce consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($400M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Spain ($82M). It was followed by Germany.

The countries with the highest levels of soya sauce per capita consumption in 2018 were the Netherlands (928 kg per 1000 persons), Ireland (698 kg per 1000 persons) and Belgium (432 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of soya sauce per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in the EU

Driven by increasing demand for soya sauce in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 173K tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 99K tonnes of soya sauce were produced in the European Union; standing approx. at the previous year. The total output indicated a buoyant expansion from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, soya sauce production increased by +38.6% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when production volume increased by 22% year-to-year. Over the period under review, soya sauce production reached its maximum volume at 99K tonnes in 2017, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, soya sauce production totaled $261M in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output indicated perceptible growth from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, soya sauce production increased by +36.0% against 2014 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when production volume increased by 30% y-o-y. The level of soya sauce production peaked in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of soya sauce exported in the European Union amounted to 73K tonnes, picking up by 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, soya sauce exports continue to indicate strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 64% y-o-y. Over the period under review, soya sauce exports attained their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, soya sauce exports totaled $167M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a resilient expansion from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, soya sauce exports increased by +34.4% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 70% year-to-year. Over the period under review, soya sauce exports reached their maximum at $190M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands prevails in soya sauce exports structure, recording 53K tonnes, which was near 72% of total exports in 2018. The UK (7,195 tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Germany (3,587 tonnes). All these countries together occupied approx. 15% share of total exports. Poland (2,406 tonnes), Belgium (2,013 tonnes) and Sweden (1,528 tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2008 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to soya sauce exports from the Netherlands stood at +9.4%. At the same time, Sweden (+24.0%), the UK (+13.8%), Germany (+4.7%) and Belgium (+3.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sweden emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +24.0% from 2008-2018. By contrast, Poland (-4.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+43 p.p.), the UK (+7.1 p.p.), Sweden (+1.8 p.p.) and Germany (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2008-2018, the share of Poland (-1.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($118M) remains the largest soya sauce supplier in the European Union, comprising 71% of total soya sauce exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the UK ($12M), with a 7.4% share of total exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.5% share.

In the Netherlands, soya sauce exports increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2008-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+9.0% per year) and Germany (+3.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The soya sauce export price in the European Union stood at $2,273 per tonne in 2018, surging by 4.2% against the previous year. Overall, the soya sauce export price, however, continues to indicate a measured curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the export price increased by 5.2% year-to-year. The level of export price peaked at $2,978 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Belgium ($4,635 per tonne), while Poland ($1,237 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports in the EU

The imports stood at 125K tonnes in 2018, surging by 9.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2008 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, soya sauce imports increased by +110.9% against 2008 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 17% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, soya sauce imports stood at $240M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, soya sauce imports increased by +33.9% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 21% year-to-year. The level of imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2018, the Netherlands (22K tonnes), the UK (20K tonnes), France (19K tonnes) and Germany (18K tonnes) represented the largest importers of soya sauce in the European Union, constituting 63% of total import. Spain (8,777 tonnes) took a 7% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Belgium (5.1%). Italy (5,011 tonnes), Sweden (3,955 tonnes), Poland (3,450 tonnes), Ireland (3,432 tonnes), Finland (2,640 tonnes) and Austria (2,487 tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Finland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($38M), Germany ($37M) and the Netherlands ($36M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together comprising 46% of total imports. These countries were followed by the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Poland, Austria and Finland, which together accounted for a further 46%.

Among the main importing countries, Italy experienced the highest growth rate of imports, over the last decade, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The soya sauce import price in the European Union stood at $1,919 per tonne in 2018, increasing by 1.7% against the previous year. In general, the soya sauce import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the import price increased by 5.2% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the import prices for soya sauce reached their maximum at $2,073 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Italy ($2,588 per tonne), while the Netherlands ($1,606 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform