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The Impact of Middle East Unrest on Global Logistics

shipping container cargo global trade logistics
3pls, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, International Trade, War

The Impact of Middle East Unrest on Global Logistics

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The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the global logistics sector, raising concerns about the safety and stability of both sea and air freight transport in the region. Beyond container cargoes, various types of cargo are now under threat, amplifying the challenges faced by the industry.

A significant incident occurred when the MSC Aries, a vessel with a capacity of 14,300 TEUs flagged in Madeira, fell victim to an attack by Iranian troops who landed via helicopter onboard the vessel. This assault occurred as the MSC Aries was departing from the port of Dubai, indicating vulnerabilities in the logistics infrastructure not only of the UAE but also of the broader Gulf region. The vessel’s affiliation with Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Group has been highlighted in media reports, suggesting a targeted attack due to these links.

The situation has not only affected maritime routes but has also impacted air travel, with several airlines cancelling services to Israel, Lebanon, and Tehran due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. While UAE authorities and Gulf-based airlines assert the security of air operations, the overall sentiment remains affected.

Looking ahead in the short and medium term, the conflict’s repercussions on the logistics sector are significant but complex. Potential impacts include fluctuations in pricing, with disruptions to ports in the UAE potentially driving short-term rates higher. Additionally, cargo volumes passing through the Suez Canal may further decline, especially if disruptions spread to energy cargoes. The threat to ports in the Gulf, particularly from Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, adds to the uncertainty.

Oil cargoes may also face challenges, with a potential return to the ‘Tanker Wars’ of the 1980s if the situation escalates further. Moreover, disruptions in the Gulf could impact airfreight operations, affecting supply chains globally. India, in particular, is vulnerable to disturbances in the region, given its proximity and reliance on trade routes through the Middle East.

The crisis remains highly unpredictable, with possible outcomes ranging from de-escalation to further escalation. The involvement of shipping and airfreight in the conflict necessitates the creation of short-term alternatives to mitigate risks, such as the utilization of the ‘Cape route.’ However, these measures may come at a high price in the immediate future, highlighting the challenges faced by the global logistics sector in navigating through this turbulent period.

diesel crude production
Global Trade Daily, United states news, War

The Middle-East Conflict is Driving US Oil Production to Record Highs

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In the face of a long and drawn-out conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, US oil production has reached record highs. As of early October, total Stateside petroleum production registered 13.2 million barrels a day. Based on data from the Energy Information Administration this is the highest figure since 1983.

 Active US drilling rigs number 501 nationwide and output for 2024 is expected to drop just slightly to 13.12 million barrels a day. Active rigs are down significantly (610 in 2022), however, making output even more impressive considering the erratic US regulatory environment. The current administration is only planning for three oil and gas leases over the coming five years – if this holds it will be the fewest leases offered ever.

 Yet, despite record output the world at large is still highly dependent on Saudi Arabia and a handful of other OPEC nation producers. For example, should Iran be drawn into the Israel-Hamas war the country’s 3 million barrels a day would be at risk. A massive explosion at a Gaza City Hospital alone sent prices skyrocketing northward.

 Before the Israel-Hamas war, the Saudis were negotiating with Israel to increase their oil production to lower prices globally. Most analysts believe the Saudis would prefer oil in the $80 to $100 per barrel range and will continue pursuing this strategy. One-third of seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and greater entanglement with neighboring countries would likely affect vital traffic flows.

The Exxon Mobil purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources in early October was a boost to US domestic energy production. While the merger will naturally result in increased production, the two companies would still only represent 13% of Permian Basin production. The Permian is a shale basin and features high production decline rates. This means that maintaining the status quo production rate takes significant effort and resources.     

 In late September oil prices reached $93.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, the Brent crude BRNOO hit $96.55 a barrel, the highest since November. The Exxon move clearly communicates that the demand for fossil fuels is not abating. However, it is still unclear how Russia and Saudi Arabia would react to a potential market share grab by Exxon and Pioneer.     

 

cheese
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Cheese and Curd Market in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia Continues to Be the Largest and Fastest Growing Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Cheese and Сurd – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the cheese and curd market in the Middle East amounted to $5.5B in 2018, growing by 5.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. In that year, the cheese and curd market attained its peak level of $5.6B. From 2015 to 2018, the growth of the cheese and curd market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese and curd consumption in 2018 were Saudi Arabia (377K tonnes), Iran (237K tonnes) and Turkey (202K tonnes), with a combined 57% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese and curd consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while cheese and curd consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($1.6B), Israel ($826M) and Turkey ($674M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 56% share of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of cheese and curd per capita consumption in 2018 were Israel (17 kg per person), Lebanon (13 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (11 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for cheese and curd in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

The cheese and curd production stood at 1.1M tonnes in 2018, surging by 4.1% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2018.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese and curd production in 2018 were Turkey (244K tonnes), Iran (238K tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (237K tonnes), together accounting for 68% of total production.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese and curd production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while cheese and curd production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2018, the amount of cheese and curd imported in the Middle East amounted to 510K tonnes, surging by 33% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, cheese and curd imports reached their peak figure at 520K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cheese and curd imports totaled $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Saudi Arabia was the key importer of cheese and curd imported in the Middle East, with the volume of imports resulting at 172K tonnes, which was near 34% of total imports in 2018. Iraq (54K tonnes) occupied an 11% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United Arab Emirates (8.8%), Lebanon (8.3%), Yemen (7.8%), Kuwait (7.5%) and Jordan (6.4%).

From 2013 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to cheese and curd imports into Saudi Arabia stood at +5.1%. At the same time, Jordan (+7.1%), Yemen (+5.6%) and Iraq (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Jordan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the Middle East, with a CAGR of +7.1% from 2013-2018. The United Arab Emirates experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Lebanon (-2.0%) and Kuwait (-13.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Saudi Arabia (+7.5 p.p.), Jordan (+1.9 p.p.) and Yemen (+1.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2018, the share of Kuwait (-7.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($626M) constitutes the largest market for imported cheese and curd in the Middle East, comprising 30% of total cheese and curd imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the United Arab Emirates ($214M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by Iraq, with a 9.9% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value in Saudi Arabia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United Arab Emirates (-3.2% per year) and Iraq (-0.3% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The cheese and curd import price in the Middle East stood at $4,094 per tonne in 2018, shrinking by -3.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the cheese and curd import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. The level of import price peaked at $4,323 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Kuwait ($4,929 per tonne), while Yemen ($3,083 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kuwait, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

plywood
Archives, Foreign Trade Zones, Global Trade Daily

Plywood Market in the Middle East is Set to Expand Robustly

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Plywood – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the plywood market in the Middle East amounted to $1.4B in 2018, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total market indicated a remarkable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of plywood consumption in 2018 were the United Arab Emirates (726K cubic meters), Saudi Arabia (648K cubic meters) and Qatar (394K cubic meters), together comprising 51% of total consumption. Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plywood consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Oman, while plywood consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plywood markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($260M), Saudi Arabia ($233M) and Israel ($215M), together comprising 50% of the total market. Turkey, Qatar, Iraq and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

The countries with the highest levels of plywood per capita consumption in 2018 were Qatar (136 cubic meters per 1000 persons), the United Arab Emirates (71 cubic meters per 1000 persons) and Israel (43 cubic meters per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for plywood in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M cubic meters by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 263K cubic meters of plywood were produced in the Middle East; surging by 2.7% against the previous year. In general, plywood production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of plywood production in 2018 were Turkey (112K cubic meters), Israel (109K cubic meters) and Lebanon (34K cubic meters), together comprising 97% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of plywood production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Israel, while plywood production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 171K cubic meters of plywood were exported in the Middle East; increasing by 26% against the previous year. In general, plywood exports continue to indicate prominent growth. The volume of exports peaked at 180K cubic meters in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, plywood exports stood at $65M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The United Arab Emirates (70K cubic meters) and Saudi Arabia (59K cubic meters) were the major exporters of plywood in 2018, reaching near 41% and 35% of total exports, respectively. Turkey (25K cubic meters) held a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Palestine (5.8%). Kuwait (2,719 cubic meters) occupied a little share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kuwait, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($24M), Saudi Arabia ($18M) and Turkey ($13M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 83% of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

The plywood export price in the Middle East stood at $381 per cubic meter in 2018, declining by -4% against the previous year. Overall, the plywood export price continues to indicate a moderate contraction.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Palestine ($806 per cubic meter), while Kuwait ($223 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Palestine, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2018, approx. 3.3M cubic meters of plywood were imported in the Middle East; falling by -2.7% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, plywood imports increased by +18.9% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, plywood imports reached their peak figure at 3.4M cubic meters in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year. In value terms, plywood imports totaled $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, the United Arab Emirates (796K cubic meters) and Saudi Arabia (707K cubic meters) were the largest importers of plywood in the Middle East, together comprising 45% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Qatar (395K cubic meters), Israel (255K cubic meters), Iraq (219K cubic meters), Oman (181K cubic meters), Turkey (175K cubic meters) and Kuwait (154K cubic meters), together comprising a 41% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Oman, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plywood importing markets in the Middle East were the United Arab Emirates ($272M), Saudi Arabia ($250M) and Israel ($153M), with a combined 52% share of total imports. Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, Oman and Kuwait lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Import Prices by Country

The plywood import price in the Middle East stood at $389 per cubic meter in 2018, picking up by 9% against the previous year. In general, the plywood import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the import price increased by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import prices for plywood reached their maximum at $528 per cubic meter in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Israel ($597 per cubic meter), while Qatar ($292 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform