IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Cheese and Сurd – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the cheese and curd market in the Middle East amounted to $5.5B in 2018, growing by 5.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. In that year, the cheese and curd market attained its peak level of $5.6B. From 2015 to 2018, the growth of the cheese and curd market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese and curd consumption in 2018 were Saudi Arabia (377K tonnes), Iran (237K tonnes) and Turkey (202K tonnes), with a combined 57% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese and curd consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while cheese and curd consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($1.6B), Israel ($826M) and Turkey ($674M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 56% share of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of cheese and curd per capita consumption in 2018 were Israel (17 kg per person), Lebanon (13 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (11 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for cheese and curd in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the Middle East

The cheese and curd production stood at 1.1M tonnes in 2018, surging by 4.1% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2018.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese and curd production in 2018 were Turkey (244K tonnes), Iran (238K tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (237K tonnes), together accounting for 68% of total production.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese and curd production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia, while cheese and curd production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the Middle East

In 2018, the amount of cheese and curd imported in the Middle East amounted to 510K tonnes, surging by 33% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, cheese and curd imports reached their peak figure at 520K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cheese and curd imports totaled $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Saudi Arabia was the key importer of cheese and curd imported in the Middle East, with the volume of imports resulting at 172K tonnes, which was near 34% of total imports in 2018. Iraq (54K tonnes) occupied an 11% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United Arab Emirates (8.8%), Lebanon (8.3%), Yemen (7.8%), Kuwait (7.5%) and Jordan (6.4%).

From 2013 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to cheese and curd imports into Saudi Arabia stood at +5.1%. At the same time, Jordan (+7.1%), Yemen (+5.6%) and Iraq (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Jordan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the Middle East, with a CAGR of +7.1% from 2013-2018. The United Arab Emirates experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Lebanon (-2.0%) and Kuwait (-13.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Saudi Arabia (+7.5 p.p.), Jordan (+1.9 p.p.) and Yemen (+1.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2018, the share of Kuwait (-7.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($626M) constitutes the largest market for imported cheese and curd in the Middle East, comprising 30% of total cheese and curd imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the United Arab Emirates ($214M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by Iraq, with a 9.9% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value in Saudi Arabia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United Arab Emirates (-3.2% per year) and Iraq (-0.3% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The cheese and curd import price in the Middle East stood at $4,094 per tonne in 2018, shrinking by -3.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the cheese and curd import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. The level of import price peaked at $4,323 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Kuwait ($4,929 per tonne), while Yemen ($3,083 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kuwait, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform