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INDIA TARIFFS COULD DENT GAINS FROM CALIFORNIA’S BUMPER ALMOND CROP

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INDIA TARIFFS COULD DENT GAINS FROM CALIFORNIA’S BUMPER ALMOND CROP

Celebrating Diwali in India with California almonds

Fall festivals and the wedding season are already ramping up in India. There’s Janmashtami which celebrates the birth of Lord Krishna, the festival for Lord Ganesha, the elephant-headed God of the Hindus, and Diwali, the famously elegant festival of lights, and many more throughout the various regions of India. Almonds are a popular gift for such occasions.

The timing is perfect for California’s almond growers. Across California’s lush green valleys, almonds are being harvested from orchards, loaded on trucks and delivered to mills where the essential nut will be separated from its shell and hull. Almond traders in India await the arrival of the best quality shipments for the festival season demand beginning early September.

Almonds have deep roots in India

Almonds in India date as far back as prehistoric times. Ancient Indian Sanskrit texts on Ayurveda, the Indian traditional medicine, detail the role of almonds and other nuts in providing health benefits. Almonds were exclusive and prestigious health supplements for the rich and royal during the Mughal rule from the 15th to the 19th century.

To this day, consuming raw almonds on a daily basis as a standalone morning chew, added to milk shakes, as oils or as a garnish to dishes, is widely prevalent in India and elsewhere on the sub-continent.

Indian consumers choose from types of almonds available in Indian street markets and grocery stores – Mamra, Gurbandi and California almonds. California almonds command a majority market share due to its wide availability and lower price. Sweeter in taste, California almonds are favored in Indian cooking and garnishing.

Tariffs could dampen California’s bumper crop

California produces 80 percent of the world’s almonds. Americans consume just over a third of California’s harvest. The remaining 67 percent is exported to other countries. California almond growers are on track for a bumper crop this year, producing a record 2.5 billion pounds of almonds, which would be a nine percent increase of over last year’s crop.

TradeVistas- Global almond production

California growers have reason to worry about access to one of their biggest export markets. The Indian government increased tariffs on U.S. shelled almonds by 20 percent and non-shelled almonds by 17 percent in June. The move came days after the Trump administration announced plans to remove India from eligibility for key trade privileges under the U.S. Generalized System of Preference (GSP) program. India was the biggest beneficiary under the GSP program, exporting $5.6 billion worth of Indian products to the United States duty-free in 2017.

The latest tariff increase by India comes on top of an increase in customs duties last year and in addition to a 12 percent tax the Indian Ministry of Finance imposes on both domestic and imported almonds. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts the increased cost will cause a five percent drop in U.S. almond exports to India, impacting the 6,800 almond growers in California, who are mostly small to medium-size, family-run enterprises.

According to a study by the Almond Board of California, the almond industry generates more than 100,000 jobs in California, mostly in the Central Valley. Almond growers are California contribute about $11 billion annually to the state’s economy.

“Tomorrow Begins Today”

India has become such an important market for California almond growers that the state almond board has an office in New Delhi with a $5.5 million annual budget.

In July of 2015, the Almond Board of California launched a successful marketing campaign in India, promoting the lesser-known nutrition benefits of almonds such as heart health, weight management and diabetes management.

The campaign, called “Tomorrow Begins Today,” reached 4.05 billion broadcast impressions and is credited with helping grow the snack category by 100 percent.

TradeVistas- Export destinations for U.S. almonds

Tariffs are a tough nut to crack

In the face of new tariffs and competition from Vietnam, Hong Kong, Australia and Chile, California growers need to crack open new markets.

Unfortunately, the tariff wars are being fought in another of California’s important export markets – China. In 2018, China imposed a 50-percent retaliatory tariff on almond imports from the United States. U.S. exports declined by 33 percent from August 2018 to April 2019 compared with the same period of the prior year, according to Almond Board of California.

Higher tariffs could ultimately cost major U.S. fruit and nut industries over $2.6 billion per year in exports, according to a report by Daniel A. Sumner, an economist with the University of California Davis’ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. The economic blow could rise to as much as $3.3 billion because of lost market share overtaken by lower-priced alternatives from competing exporters.

Australia has taken advantage of their free trade agreement with China to expand exports. The free trade agreement between the two countries grants zero tariffs on almonds and other commodities starting January 1, 2019. Australian producers recorded a 20-fold increase in exports to China this year, according to the Australian Board of Almonds.

Nothing to celebrate

Retaliatory tariffs imposed by India will shortchange the gains hoped for by California almond growers who are expecting a bumper harvest this year, but who also face tariffs in another top export market: China.

Indian importers might look for other sources but no other global exporter can match the volume of production by California’s almond growers. As long as India’s appetite for sweet almonds continues to grow, Indian consumers will pay a higher price for U.S. almonds at their upcoming celebrations.

PBhatnagar

Pragya Bhatnagar is a Research Associate with the Hinrich Foundation where he focuses on International Trade Research. He is a Hinrich Foundation Global Trade Leader Scholar alumnus, earning his Master’s degree in International Journalism, specializing in Business and Financial Journalism, from Hong Kong Baptist University. He received his bachelor’s degree in Economics from Lucknow University, India.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

imports

U.S. Imports of Fats And Oils Refining and Blending Doubled over the Last Five Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Fats And Oils Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the revenue of the fat and oil market in the U.S. amounted to $10.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, fat and oil consumption continues to indicate a decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the market value decreased by -4% year-to-year. Fat and oil consumption peaked at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

U.S. Fat And Oil Production

In value terms, fat and oil production totaled $10.5B in 2018. In general, fat and oil production continues to indicate a decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with a decrease of -4% year-to-year. Over the period under review, fat and oil production reached its peak figure level at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, shortening and cooking oils ($9.1B) constituted the leading product category. The second position in the ranking was occupied by margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes ($1.3B).

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the production volume of shortening and cooking oils stood at -11.4%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes (-6.6% per year) and other fats and oils refining and blending (+20.4% per year).

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of fats and oils exported from the U.S. stood at 22K tonnes, surging by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +126.1% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 47% year-to-year. In that year, fat and oil exports attained their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil exports stood at $26M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +115.0% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 39% against the previous year. In that year, fat and oil exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Libya (5.9K tonnes), Egypt (3.1K tonnes) and India (3K tonnes) were the main destinations of fat and oil exports from the U.S., with a combined 55% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by India (+270.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Libya ($5.1M) emerged as the key foreign market for fat and oil exports from the U.S., comprising 19% of total fat and oil exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($2.3M), with a 8.6% share of total exports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 8.2% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value to Libya was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+201.4% per year) and Egypt (0.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average fat and oil export price stood at $1,210 per tonne in 2018, going down by -5.7% against the previous year. Over the last five-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 an increase of 23% year-to-year. The export price peaked at $1,283 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($4,008 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Egypt ($690 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the fat and oil imports into the U.S. stood at 55K tonnes, increasing by 18% against the previous year. In general, fat and oil imports continue to indicate a skyrocketing expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 42% y-o-y. Imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil imports totaled $154M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated remarkable growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +20.1% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil imports increased by +80.1% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 18% y-o-y. In that year, fat and oil imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Indonesia (16K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., with a 29% share of total imports. Moreover, fat and oil imports from Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Spain (6.1K tonnes), threefold. India (5.9K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 11% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Indonesia stood at +105.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Spain (+81.4% per year) and India (+8.4% per year).

In value terms, Indonesia ($49M) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., comprising 32% of total fat and oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Malaysia ($15M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by India, with a 7.6% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Indonesia stood at +113.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Malaysia (+52.6% per year) and India (+9.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average fat and oil import price amounted to $2,774 per tonne, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the fat and oil import price continues to indicate an abrupt decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 26% year-to-year. The import price peaked at $3,840 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Germany ($7,513 per tonne), while the price for Ecuador ($1,043 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

almond

Global Almond Market 2019 – After Five Years of Robust Growth of In-Shell Nut Imports, India Emerges as the Most Promising Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Almonds – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global almond market revenue amounted to $10.5B in 2018, going up by 6.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total market indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the almond consumption increased by +62.4% against 2008 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, when the market value increased by 18% against the previous year. Global almond consumption peaked in 2018, and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Production 2007-2018

Global almond production stood at 2.4M tonnes in 2018, rising by 3.8% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011, when the output figure increased by 13% year-to-year. Global almond production peaked in 2018, and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of almond output was largely conditioned by a measured increase of the harvested area and a slight growth in yield figures.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports totaled 306K tonnes in 2018, coming down by -6.2% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, almond exports amounted to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, the U.S. (204K tonnes) represented the major exporter for almonds, generating 67% of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR (36K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Australia (7%) and Benin (6.8%). The United Arab Emirates (7K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of +11.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Australia (+12.1%) and the United Arab Emirates (+7.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Australia emerged as the fastest growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +12.1% from 2007-2018. Benin and China, Hong Kong SAR experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2007 to 2018, the share of the U.S. and Australia increased by +47% and +5% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($993M) remains the largest almond supplier worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China, Hong Kong SAR ($117M), with a 9% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 8.1% share.

Export Prices by Country

The average almond export price stood at $4,284 per tonne in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, the export price indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the almond export price decreased by -1.4% against 2015 indices. There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest export price was Australia ($4,963 per tonne), while Benin ($448 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by China, Hong Kong SAR, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 299K tonnes of almonds were imported worldwide; going down by -2% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016, with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 325K tonnes in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, almond imports totaled $1.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, almond imports, however, continue to indicate remarkable expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, with an increase of 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global almond imports attained their maximum at $1.4B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2018, India (131K tonnes) represented the key importer for almonds, making up 44% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Viet Nam (61K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (46K tonnes) and China (15K tonnes), together committing 41% share of total imports. The following importers – the United Arab Emirates (6.2K tonnes), Japan (5.8K tonnes) and Spain (5.8K tonnes) – each amounted to a 5.9% share of total imports.

Imports into India increased at an average annual rate of +9.8% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, China (+21.6%), China, Hong Kong SAR (+16.8%), Spain (+7.4%) and the United Arab Emirates (+7.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest growing importer in the world, with a CAGR of +21.6% from 2007-2018. Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Viet Nam (-6.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+28 p.p.), China, Hong Kong SAR (+13 p.p.) and China (+4.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2007-2018, the share of Viet Nam (-19.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($666M) constitutes the largest market for imported almonds worldwide, comprising 48% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Viet Nam ($243M), with a 17% share of global imports. It was followed by China, Hong Kong SAR, with a 15% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average almond import price stood at $4,675 per tonne in 2018, approximately reflecting the previous year. Over the period under review, the almond import price continues to indicate strong growth. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was Japan ($6,976 per tonne), while Spain ($3,921 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Global Vegetable Market 2019 – Resilient Growth of Potato Consumption in China and India Shapes Overall Market Trend

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Vegetable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global vegetable market revenue amounted to $1,249.8B in 2018, picking up by 2.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010, with an increase of 8.1% against the previous year. Global vegetable consumption peaked in 2018, and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Production 2007-2018

Global vegetable production stood at 1,555M tonnes in 2018, jumping by 3.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 47M tonnes of vegetables were exported worldwide; standing approx. at the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. In value terms, vegetable exports amounted to $42.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (6.1M tonnes), Mexico (5.8M tonnes), Spain (5.1M tonnes), China (4.3M tonnes), France (3.5M tonnes), Germany (2.7M tonnes) and the U.S. (2.4M tonnes) represented roughly 64% of total exports of vegetables in 2018. The following exporters – Canada (1.4M tonnes), Belgium (1.3M tonnes), India (1.2M tonnes), Egypt (1.1M tonnes) and Italy (864K tonnes) – together made up 13% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mexico, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($6.7B), the Netherlands ($6.5B) and Mexico ($6.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 46% of global exports.

Export Prices by Country

The average vegetable export price stood at $899 per tonne in 2018, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, when the average export price increased by 6.6% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for vegetables reached their peak level of $910 per tonne, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Italy ($1,679 per tonne), while Germany ($342 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Canada, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 47M tonnes of vegetables were imported worldwide; approximately mirroring the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010, when imports increased by 7.2% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global vegetable imports attained their peak figure at 49M tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, vegetable imports totaled $41.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010, when imports increased by 17% year-to-year. Global imports peaked at $42.5B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2018, the U.S. (7.4M tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (3.8M tonnes), the Netherlands (3.1M tonnes), Russia (2.2M tonnes) and the UK (2.2M tonnes) were the key importers of vegetables, together achieving 39% of total imports. The following importers – Belgium (1.9M tonnes), Canada (1.9M tonnes), France (1.9M tonnes), Malaysia (1.4M tonnes), Italy (1.2M tonnes), Spain (1.2M tonnes) and Indonesia (819K tonnes) – together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vegetable importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($8.5B), Germany ($5.1B) and the UK ($3B), with a combined 40% share of global imports. These countries were followed by Canada, France, the Netherlands, Russia, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Malaysia and Indonesia, which together accounted for a further 30%.

Import Prices by Country

The average vegetable import price stood at $884 per tonne in 2018, approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, the vegetable import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was the UK ($1,367 per tonne), while Malaysia ($472 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Spain, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Global Cinnamon Market 2019 – Imports to India Grow Robustly

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Cinnamon (Canella) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global cinnamon market revenue amounted to $1.1B in 2018, dropping by -9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total market indicated a remarkable expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the cinnamon consumption decreased by -19.8% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010, when the market value increased by 36% y-o-y. Global cinnamon consumption peaked at $1.3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption failed to regain its momentum.

Production 2007-2018

Global cinnamon production totaled 237K tonnes in 2018, going up by 4% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 145K tonnes of cinnamon (canella) were exported worldwide; declining by -18.1% against the previous year. In general, the total exports indicated a moderate increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, cinnamon exports totaled $580M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, cinnamon exports, however, continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, when exports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global cinnamon exports reached their peak figure at $605M in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Viet Nam (44K tonnes) and Indonesia (41K tonnes) were the major exporters of cinnamon (canella) around the world, together accounting for near 59% of total exports. It was distantly followed by China (25K tonnes) and Sri Lanka (17K tonnes), together creating 29% share of total exports. The Netherlands (5.2K tonnes), Madagascar (2.7K tonnes) and the U.S. (2.3K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Madagascar, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cinnamon markets worldwide were Sri Lanka ($191M), Indonesia ($141M) and Viet Nam ($118M), together accounting for 78% of global exports. These countries were followed by China, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Madagascar, which together accounted for a further 15%.

Export Prices by Country

The average cinnamon export price stood at $4,003 per tonne in 2018, surging by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the cinnamon export price increased by +104.6% against 2010 indices. There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest export price was Sri Lanka ($11,358 per tonne), while China ($1,843 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Indonesia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, the global cinnamon imports stood at 167K tonnes, lowering by -4.7% against the previous year.In value terms, cinnamon imports stood at $587M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, India (39K tonnes), distantly followed by the U.S. (20K tonnes), Mexico (11K tonnes) and the Netherlands (7.7K tonnes) were the key importers of cinnamon (canella), together making up 47% of total imports. Bangladesh (7K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (5.5K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (4.6K tonnes), Pakistan (4.4K tonnes), Iran (3.9K tonnes), Brazil (3.2K tonnes), Germany (3K tonnes) and Viet Nam (3K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cinnamon importing markets worldwide were Mexico ($97M), India ($84M) and the U.S. ($72M), together accounting for 43% of global imports. The Netherlands, Bangladesh, Germany, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, Pakistan and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

Import Prices by Country

The average cinnamon import price stood at $3,510 per tonne in 2018, surging by 3.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the cinnamon import price increased by +39.1% against 2013 indices. Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Mexico ($8,610 per tonne), while Bangladesh ($1,717 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Brazil, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

CEIV pharma

DACHSER India Branches Boast CEIV Pharma Certification

DACHSER’s Mumbai and Hyderabad branches are among the few companies in India to receive the prestigious Center of Excellence for Independent Validators in Pharmaceutical Logistics certification  recognizing exemplary operations in transporting Life Science and Healthcare (LSH) products. Such products are both temperature and time-sensitive, requiring meticulous, accurate, and high standards in monitoring and handling to ensure product quality.

“Congratulations to DACHSER India on their CEIV Pharma certification. The time and temperature sensitive nature of pharmaceutical products means the highest standards are needed to make sure product integrity is maintained for such shipments,” said Vinoop Goel, IATA’s Regional Director for Airports and External Relations, Asia-Pacific. “With India being a major supplier of pharmaceutical products, DACHSER India’s CEIV Pharma certification will give pharmaceutical companies confidence and assurance that their cold-chain logistics requirements are being met.”

Difficult to obtain, the CEIV Pharma certification is earned by companies implementing efficient, safe, and excellence in transporting LSH products. Currently, DACHSER’s Hyderabad branch is one of two companies in the region to boast the accreditation. Through a strenuous audit ensuring compliance among all all facilities, equipment, operations and staff, DACHSER applied for the certification with the goal of adding to its already extensive history in handling pharma products.

“Obtaining the CEIV Pharma certification is an important milestone for DACHSER India. It emphasizes our continued focus for providing highly reliable logistic services to our valued customers in the LSH segment”, said Huned Gandhi, Managing Director, Air & Sea Logistics for the Indian Subcontinent. “Quality and efficiency have always been the cornerstones for our success and our teams are extremely proud to receive this accreditation from IATA.”
“By way of CEIV certification at our Mumbai and Hyderabad branches, DACHSER India has made a big step forward to further enhance its operational and technical competencies in serving our LSH customers,” concluded Zarksis Munshi, Head of Air Freight, Air & Sea Logistics India Subcontinent.

It’s Time for an Indian-U.S. Digital Alliance

With two of largest economies in the world – the EU and China – developing their own digital economy frameworks and governance systems and seeking to export those to their respective spheres of influence, America and India risk being isolated. With its comprehensive digital economy regulatory regime, including limits on cross border data flows, onerous privacy rules, and aggressive antitrust enforcement directed at U.S. internet companies, the EU is seeking to export its digital governance model globally. China is doing the same.

Its strategy of a protected domestic market, coupled with a state that is a massive provider of data to Chinese IT firms, being exported through its digital silk road initiative.

If India and the United States do not want to live in an increasingly bi-polar digital world with some nations in the EU digital regulatory block and others as digital colonies of China, it is time for a high-level digital alliance between India and the United States.

Such a partnership makes eminent sense. Today, the two countries are already partners in areas ranging from trade and investment, defence and counter-terrorism, science and technology, and energy and health, among others. Goods and services trade between the two countries topped US$142bn in 2018 with a joint resolve of taking it to US$500bn by 2024.

As India is a leader in IT services, fielding global leading companies like WIPRO, TCS and Infosys, and the United States is home to the world’s leading digital economy firms, becoming partners in digital is the next logical step.

However, increasingly, economic policy in the two countries is fueled by nation-first rhetoric. Such an approach has the potential of putting both countries at loggerheads. For instance, India’s position on local storage of sensitive data of its citizens, particularly in payments, e-commerce, and social media sectors, has raised the hackles of American companies, as have a series of restrictions against U.S. firms from entering the e-commerce market.

Yet, apparent discord is no reason to weaken the resolve of deepening engagement in existing areas and expanding in others. In fact, such episodes must prompt a course correction through comprehensive review of causes, and designing of mechanisms to prevent and promptly resolve possible discords in future.

One key Indian position is primarily informed by difficulty of its law enforcement agencies to get timely access to data of potential rogue elements that may be stored outside India. Yet, rather than ban cross border data transfers to the United States, a well negotiated arrangement between the two countries which inter alia minimises restrictions on cross border data flow, maintains high levels of data protection, and does not compromise the ability of Indian government to access necessary data in genuine cases will be a win-win situation for both countries.

Resolving these kinds of existing and potential disputes through formalized mechanisms like advance notification and structured consultation could go a long way in deepening partnership between the two nations.

However, the scope of digital alliance need not be limited to dispute resolution. The emerging new IT-based innovation wave is bringing stakeholders across jurisdictions closer than ever. A range of intermediaries has emerged to increase convenience, safety, speed, and economy of digital experience, within and across borders. Regulation on accountability, dominance, grievance redress, and taxation in digital economy will need greater cooperation among governments than ever before.

India and the United States can lead the way in working towards establishing best practices by entering into early engagements at senior government levels on these issues under a broader digital alliance. The on-going 2+2 dialogue on defence and security issues between the two countries could be a good template. The digital alliance can also benefit from close partnerships between industry and civil society of the two nations.

Finally, each nation leads in certain areas, with India ahead of the United States in programs like smart cities and digital identity systems, both implemented under the Modi government. Also, India has taken important steps in fighting digital piracy, with the Delhi high court’s recent decision that provides a new tool for rights-holders to better protect the creativity that is tied up in their copyright.

The United States leads in broadband and progress to 5G and e-government. When it comes to these kinds of digital policy innovations, a formal partnership can help two-way learning and implementation with appropriate customization.

Given their past and present partnership, India and the United States are not only naturally placed to develop a shared global vision for digital economy but are also equally equipped to present an optimal alternative to the Chinese or EU approaches. The time is right for a digital alliance between India and the United States. The leadership in both countries needs to realise this and actively work towards achieving the same before it’s too late.

Mehta is Founder Secretary General of CUTS International, a global economy policy research and advocacy group headquartered in India. Atkinson is Founder and President of Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, the world’s top think tank for science and technology policy, headquartered in the United States.

Locus Announces $22 million in Series B Funding Secured

AI-backed supply chain and logistics solutions company, Locus announced
Falcon Edge Capital, Tiger Global Management, Exfinity Venture Partners and Blume Ventures contributed to $22 million in funding towards enhancements of AI-focused solutions and expansion of teams in North America and Southeast Asia.

“Locus provides autonomous supply chain optimization, thus minimizing the dependency on human intelligence, built by an incredible team of PhDs and Engineers,” said Locus CEO Nishith Rastogi said. “Product applications include clubbing of forward and reverse logistics in a single route plan, schedule and on-demand dispatch planning, and automatic escalation management.

“Locus is on an unprecedented path to automate every possible decision in the supply chain. The funding will act as a boost to our global expansion efforts as we amplify our team size specifically in North America and continue to build our IP.”

Locus has established itself as a premier provider of AI-backed logistics and supply chain solutions in India following successful customer roll-outs. Additionally, one of the region’s largest e-grocers employs Locus to meet
99.5% SLA adherence for more than 10 million customers. Among its solutions portfolio, customers can find route optimization, real-time order tracking, insights and analytics, dynamic sales journey plans, and automated shipment sorting. 

“We believe the trillion-dollar global logistics market is ripe for disruption via technological change, particularly AI and machine learning-driven solutions,” said Navroz D. Udwadia, Co-Founder, Falcon Edge Capital. “We are excited to lead a Series B round in Locus, a company that deploys AI/ML/deep tech to drive route optimization outcomes in global logistics markets.”

“With Hindustan Unilever, Blue Dart and other prolific anchor customers, the team has demonstrated the ability to build and deliver cutting-edge technology and algorithmic-driven outcomes that provide attributable ROI to the enterprise at scale. We are excited to help Locus expand its breadth and depth of product and sales reach, moving from route optimization to a full-stack SaaS offering to the enterprise around its logistics needs.”

Source: Locus


Understanding Washington’s Move to Exclude India from the GSP

On 4 March 2019, The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced through a letter to U.S. Congress that the U.S. intends to terminate India’s designation as a beneficiary developing country under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) Scheme.

The move will have direct implications on U.S. businesses that import either finished or intermediate goods from India, increasing their landed costs and further complicating their customs administration.

What is the GSP?

For the uninitiated, GSP is a trade preference program introduced in the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 that provides opportunities for many of the world’s poorest countries to use trade to grow their economies. Several products imported from these countries are extended a preferential treatment, including reduced or waived tariffs. One of the discretionary criteria the U.S. considers when determining the eligibility of a country as a beneficiary of the GSP is whether or not the country being evaluated will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets and basic commodity resources.

Washington’s recent move to exclude India from the GSP means India-origin goods that were hitherto eligible for preferential treatment will now have import duties imposed, making them more expensive for U.S. importers. 

What caused the change?

U.S. goods and services traded with India totaled an estimated $126.2 billion in 2017. Exports were $49.4 billion and imports were $76.7 billion. The total trade deficit with India was $27.3 billion in 2017. The current U.S. administration is heavily focused on reducing trade deficits, and has taken the view that India has not assured the United States that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to the Indian market.

News reports suggest this was triggered by petitions from the National Milk Producers Federation, the U.S. Dairy Export Council, and the Advanced Medical Technology Association. India requires dairy products to be certified as being sourced from animals that have not consumed internal organs, blood meal or tissues of ruminant origin. The U.S. does not provide such a certification although other exporting countries such as the EU and New Zealand do. India has also recently placed a cap on the prices of medical devices, such as stents, which directly impacts U.S. exporters of these devices to India.

What will be the likely impact?

Experts believe the exclusion of India from the GSP will have a negligible effect on India’s industrial performance as it is expected to affect only about $5.6 billion worth of exports with benefits of about $190 million; an amount that could be absorbed by exporters as an additional cost; or supported by the Indian government through subsidies or similar measures. Others however, note that while the actual duty benefits of the GSP program may be small relative to the country’s total trade activity, they could disproportionately affect India’s small and medium businesses who export intermediate goods – products that are low on the manufacturing value chain and thus not made competitively in the United States. Upcoming national elections in India may also play a part in the government’s approach to the issue.

What happens next?

A mandatory 60 days must now pass after notice has been given to the beneficiary countries and to Congress, during which time the countries can, at least technically, negotiate the changes. After the 60-day period, a beneficiary country can be taken off the GSP list by a presidential proclamation. Sources from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) have indicated India will “continue to talk” to the United States government over the 60-day period in hopes of coming to a mutually acceptable agreement.

It must be noted that the two countries are already in discussions to resolve a range of other trade tariff issues, primarily those stemming from the U.S. Administration’s decision not to exempt India from its new steel and aluminium tariffs. India had retaliated by raising import tax on U.S. imports worth $10.6 billion. For example, a tariff of 100% will be applied on imports of U.S. origin almonds and walnuts (up from 30%), and a tariff of 50% will be applied on apples (up from 40%). However, India has delayed implementation of higher tariffs. This is seen by several observers as a sign of India’s willingness to negotiate and arrive at a mutually beneficial solution. On the other hand, the U.S. Administration’s intentions to bring down the overall U.S. trade deficit could see these negotiations fail. 

U.S. importers who bring in products from India should consult with their trade services partners to determine the impact on their overall landed costs and possibly explore alternative sourcing markets that could offer a more favorable tariff regime, shorter transit times or less onerous customs requirements.

Jayachand Pachakkil,is a senior consultant in the Global Trade Consulting division of trade services firm Livingston International. He can be reached at jpachakkil@livingstonintl.com

Dubai Customs Reports Free Zone Trade Growth

The latest reports released by Dubai Customs reveals an impressive 23 percent growth in free zone trade for 2018, reaching a total of AED532 billion. Total non-oil trade for 2018 was reported at AED1.3 trillion, confirming the strong position Dubai is steadily maintaining as an international and regional trade hub leader.

“The current growth of Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade is an indication that we are on the right path of revenue diversification in alignment with the values and standards outlined in the 50-Year Charter. The Dubai Silk Road Strategy supports decades of successful investment in developing the emirate’s infrastructure,” said His Highness Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Chairman of The Executive Council.

“In line with the vision of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, we are committed to develop our government services so that we can become a world-class model for future governments based on knowledge, innovation and advanced AI applications. We are currently developing a virtual commercial zone, the first of its kind in the region, which will allow investors to open bank accounts and grant e-residencies according to the highest standards of international laws and regulations,” he added.

Additionally, airborne trade saw an increase of 3.2 percent, sea trade was reported with a 3.4 percent increase, and land trade was reported at AED205 billion. Advanced communication technologies, such as phones were reported as the top commodity in Dubai, and China and India remained the region’s largest trading partners.

Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade is flexible and agile enough to overcome different global economic crunches. Despite a number of challenges that world trade has been through in the last decade, Dubai’s trade grew 72% from 2009 and 2018, and the volume of goods in this period grew 44%. This again reflects Dubai’s ability to attract global trade and investments and to keep up with changes, especially the rise of Asia and China as a global export hub. Dubai is a very important link in this global activity. Our international network of ports and free zones in different countries coupled with Dubai’s leading airline network have helped the emirate in its journey towards more success and progress,” concluded Sultan bin Sulayem, DP World Group Chairman & CEO and Chairman of Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation.