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Construction Boom Keeps Global Hardboard Exports Solid

hardboard exports

Construction Boom Keeps Global Hardboard Exports Solid

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Hardboard – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global hardboard exports increased by +1.1% y-o-y to 3.6M cubic meters last year. Germany heads the list of the largest hardboard exporters worldwide, supplying 45% of its export volume to the U.S., France and Poland. In 2020, Brazil, Thailand, Romania, Turkey, Spain, Belgium and Canada recorded the most prominent export growth. 

Hardboard Exports by Country

In 2020, the amount of hardboard exported worldwide grew by +1.1% to 3.6M cubic meters. In value terms, hardboard exports accounted for $2B (IndexBox estimates) last year.

Germany (959K cubic meters), distantly followed by France (426K cubic meters), Belgium (398K cubic meters), and Poland (394K cubic meters) were the largest exporters of hardboard, together comprising 60% of total exports. The following exporters – China (140K cubic meters), Brazil (138K cubic meters), Russia (108K cubic meters), Belarus (103K cubic meters), Canada (92K cubic meters), Thailand (74K cubic meters), Turkey (68K cubic meters), Spain (67K cubic meters) and Romania (64K cubic meters) – together made up 24% of total exports.

In 2020, Brazil, Thailand, Romania, Turkey, Spain, Belgium and Canada displayed the highest paces of growth. Last year, Brazil emerged as the fastest-growing exporter worldwide. Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France, Poland, Belarus and China illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Germany ($815M) remains the largest hardboard supplier worldwide, comprising 40% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Poland ($239M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by France, with a 7% share.

In 2020, the average hardboard export price amounted to $561 per cubic meter, waning by -1.9% against the previous year. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Major Markets for Hardboard Supplied from Germany

The U.S. (224K cubic meters), France (114K cubic meters) and Poland (90K cubic meters) were the main destinations of hardboard exports from Germany, together accounting for 45% of total exports. In 2020, the highest increase in supplied volume was in the U.S., while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the U.S. ($191M) remains the key foreign market for hardboard exports from Germany, comprising 23% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by France ($94M), with a 12% share of total exports. It was followed by Poland, with a 7.4% share.

Source: IndexBox Platform

intermodal

IANA Releases 2021’s Second Quarter Intermodal Quarterly Report

Second Quarter 2021 Intermodal Volume

Intermodal volumes improved for the fourth consecutive quarter, surging 20.4% year-over-year in Q2. This quarter’s double-digit increase was the largest quarterly gain since Q3 of 2010 and was also the sixth quarter with a double-digit growth rate in the history of the data. On a seasonally adjusted basis, total intermodal volume was 1.7% higher in Q2 than the previous quarter. This was anticipated, as inclement winter weather and service shutdowns held back volume in Q1. In Q2, all three market sectors had impressive growth. The domestic market, which consists of trailers and domestic containers, improved by 16.1% year-over-year. Trailer loads jumped 18.5% this quarter, compared to a 14.0% decline in Q2 of 2020. Domestic container traffic rose slightly less than trailers, at a pace of 15.7% year-over-year. However, domestic containers were up against stronger comparisons as this sector only lost 7.0% in Q2 of 2020. International volumes expanded by 24.8% this quarter, after declining 15.4% in Q2 of 2020.

On a regional basis, domestic container moves posted positive growth in all ten IANA regions in Q2. This was a change from the previous quarter when losses were present in both the Midwest and
Mexico. Only the Midwest and Eastern Canada increased less than 10% during Q2, rising 9.3% and 9.8%, respectively. Domestic container volumes were the best in western regions this quarter. The Mountain Central, Northwest and Southwest rose by 33.9%, 19.3% and 18.0%, respectively. In comparison, the eastern regions gained 15.0% year-over-year but were up against an almost 10% loss in the previous quarter. Stronger West Coast growth can be attributed to less trucking competition in the region and an overwhelming amount of imports flowing into West Coast ports and being transloaded. The trailer market sector surged by double-digits for the third quarter in a row during Q2. However, strong growth cannot be attributed to improving conditions but instead to weak comparisons. From Q4 of 2019 to Q2 of 2020, trailer volumes dropped 19.8% when compared to the previous year. As of Q2 2021, trailer moves were still considerably below 2018 and 2019 levels and it is unlikely that they will return to levels seen in prior years throughout the remainder of 2021. On a regional basis, this
market sector expanded in nine of the ten IANA regions. Trailers are currently not present in Eastern Canada, as the trailer lane was closed in early 2018.

Q2 is the second consecutive quarter with double-digit gains in international traffic and the third with positive improvements. Robust performance was bolstered by weak comparisons and soaring U.S. imports. As with last quarter, international volumes advanced in nine of the ten IANA regions. Mexico, the only region to decline in Q2, faltered 3.9%. However, this is one of the smallest regions, representing only 3% of the total international volume. International moves rose at comparative levels of 32.5% in the West and 32.6% in the East. And while growth rates were very close, Western improvement was more impactful as almost 30% of all international volume originates in this region.

Solid intermodal growth is expected over the remainder
of 2021. Strong domestic demand coupled with weak comparisons will bolster future gains. Intermodal volumes are forecasted to advance an estimated 9% during 2021. International traffic is anticipated to lead the annual improvement by rising almost 13% in 2021. Domestic container moves are expected to rise just above 6% over the course of the year, while trailer loads are estimated to gain between 1.5% and 2.5%.

In Q2 of 2021, total IMC loads rose significantly again, up 29.8% from last year. Q2 2020 volumes were down for IMCs, falling 10.0%, as COVID-19 slowed almost everything. Highway loads were up slightly more than intermodal loads, but both surged during the current quarter. Highway loads rose 33.4%, and intermodal loads grew 23.9% during Q2. Also, highway loads were up over 30% for all of the last three months, while intermodal loads slowed a bit as both April and May increased nearly 30%, but June was up only 11.5%. Total revenue rose in Q2, climbing 59.5% from 2020. Most of that surge was in highway activity that jumped 93.4%, reflecting the 45.0% rise in average revenue per highway load. Intermodal load revenue rose 29.2%, just a bit higher than volume because the average revenue per intermodal load was up just 4.3%. The normal growth from Q1 to Q2 happened again in 2021 with total loads up 6.7%, and total revenue increasing 9.7%. Part of that was due to intermodal volume and revenue slowing down significantly in February 2021 because of the weather.

Trucking Industry Outlook

Trucking posted modest quarter-over-quarter volume growth in the second quarter of 2021. Seasonally adjusted tractor-trailer loads were up 1.1% quarter-over-quarter. While dry van loadings had led growth in Q1, it was the only segment to experience a small decline in Q2 of 0.3%. Refrigerated loadings increased 1.4% q/q while all other loadings were up 2.1%, which is a reflection of the industrial sector’s recovery after lagging the consumer sector.

Short-haul tractor-trailer loadings were the only length of haul to decline in Q2, easing 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. Short-haul had also been the only drag in volume in Q1. The strongest quarter-over-quarter growth was in the super long haul which was up 2.2% quarter-over-quarter. Long-haul rose 1.6%, and medium-haul was up 0.9%.

Trucking volume was 14.0% higher in Q2 than in the same 2020 period. Comparisons range from being up 8.2% in short-haul to a 19.4% differential in long-haul. Dry van was 18.8% higher. refrigerated was up 7.8%, and all other segments were 11.6% above Q2 of 2020.

Active truck utilization – the share of seated trucks engaged in hauling freight – stood at 100% in Q1, basically in line with the extreme tightness seen in late 2017 and early 2018.

Hiring in for-hire trucking finally showed some signs of strength at the end of Q2 as payroll employment rose by 6,400 jobs, seasonally adjusted. The sector remains 38,300 jobs, or 2.5%, below February 2020 on a seasonally adjusted basis, although on an unadjusted basis, for-hire employment has essentially recovered to February 2020 levels.

While June’s job growth was the strongest since November, the first half of the year remains relatively weak with the addition of just 7,600 jobs, seasonally adjusted. By comparison, for-hire trucking in Q4 of 2020 had added nearly 29,000 jobs – the most in any three-month period in 25 years.

It is unclear how much loosening, if any, trucking has seen in the headwinds for adding drivers. Although the licensing of new drivers presumably has improved since the heights of the pandemic, hard data is lacking.

Net orders for Class 8 trucks are finally coming back down to normal levels. After orders of 40,000 or more in each month of Q1, they decreased to nearly 35,000 in April and moderated further to the mid-20,000s in April and June. However, one clear factor in the decline is that order boards for 2021 have been filled and manufacturers had not yet opened the boards for 2022.

Truck freight has not shown any signs of weakness, though it is showing indications that growth might have peaked. Total spot market volume by the end of June was off the peak in May, although the flatbed sector was mostly responsible. Dry van and refrigerated volumes through June were holding at near-record levels if the year’s two big spikes – February weather and the International Roadcheck inspection event in May – are excluded. Moreover, spot rates might also have peaked, but they have not moderated significantly yet.

Freight volumes are expected to slow but experience steady q/q growth into 2022. For 2021 as a whole, truck loadings are forecasted to be 7% higher than 2020 levels.

Freight demand pressures are becoming more complicated. Automotive sales are starting to slide based on low production due to the semiconductor shortage. This bottleneck could keep demand high for an extended period. The large infusions of consumer stimulus that the economy saw in January and March appear to be over but advance payments of a child tax credit started in July and run through December could extent consumer spending. On the other hand, a $300-a-week supplement in unemployment payments to around 14 million Americans has already ended in nearly half of U.S. states and probably will not be renewed nationwide beyond early September.

The sunset of generous unemployment benefits could have some near-term implications for trucking capacity as well if it turns out that those benefits have been a constraint on drivers returning to work. Active truck utilization is forecasted at 100% through Q3 and an easing to only about 99% in Q4. However, this forecast does not assume a significant increase in driver employment as generous unemployment benefits end. Therefore, the forecast risk would seem to be mostly on an easing of active utilization rather than a hardening of it.

Another issue that bears watching is the ongoing surge in small new trucking companies since the middle of 2020. However, if the spot market begins to cool, many of these mostly one-truck operations might rush back to the security of employment with larger carriers.

Intermodal remains highly competitive with trucking due to very high rates and tight driver supply. This situation will likely continue at least into early 2022, however, could be affected by a quicker stabilization in the trucking market, as reflected by a peak in truck spot metrics.

titanium

Titanium Prices to Keep Elevated on Production Shortages and Rising Demand from the Paint and Aerospace Industries

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Titanium Ores and Concentrates – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In the first half of 2021, prices for titanium and its derivatives shot up in response to rising demand and a drop in titanium mining last year, as well as titanium shaving stocks reduction. The rebound in the chemical and aerospace industries is a key driver for the rising demand for the metal. The potential use of titanium derivatives in alternative energy is set to stimulate further market expansion. Robust demand expectations are to keep prices elevated in the immediate term.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, the recovering demand from the downstream industries led to an increase in titanium prices. According to data from Asian Metal, the price for Chinese titanium sponge rose from a low of $6.9 per kg in July 2020 to $10.5 per kg in June 2021.

The prices of titanium scrap jumped in 2021 due to a drop in global stocks of shavings, a byproduct of aircraft manufacturing. According to IndexBox estimates, the average import price for titanium scrap increased from $2.9 per kg in January 2021 to $4.1 in April 2021. During this period, the import price for titanium dioxide increased from $2.6 to $3.2 per kg, while the import price for titanium fluctuated within the range of $11.3 – $14.7 per kg. Strong expectations of further market growth are expected to drive prices further in the medium term, at least until any new positive data on titanium mining will arrive.

According to IndexBox estimates based on USGS data, the global production of titanium ores and concentrates in 2020 decreased by 1.2% y-o-y to 13M tonnes. The 2020 lockdowns led to a drop in demand for titanium concentrates from stagnating chemical, metallurgical and aerospace industries. The pandemic-related mine closures were also a factor behind the production drop.

The growth in demand for titanium from the paint and varnish industries remains the main market driver. Titanium dioxide is one of the most sought-after pigments and fillers in the paint, coating and plastics industries. The demand for paints and varnishes is growing markedly due to the construction boom and the recovery of the automotive industry. The rising trend in the construction of super-large container ships will be relevant in the medium term and should sharpen the need for paints with titanium dioxide.

The reopening of air travel and water transport will increase the need for the renewal of aircraft fleets and will lead to a further increase in demand for titanium as it is the main metal used in their construction. One of the world’s largest airliner manufacturers, Airbus, has announced plans to expand production, expecting the demand for airliners to recover to pre-crisis levels within the next two years. According to quarterly reports for 2021, Boeing and Airbus increased aircraft deliveries in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2020, which indicates a recovery in demand.

The commercialization of technology for manufacturing semiconductor photocatalysts based on titanium dioxide, which are used for hydrogen fuel production, water and air purification, etc, may act as a new stimulus for the titanium market to develop. Industrial filters based on titanium dioxide neutralize organic gas emissions by converting them into carbon dioxide and water. This process could become a cheaper alternative to the traditional after-burning of factory off-gases. Titanium dioxide can be used in manufacturing solar cells and batteries. This technology could compete commercially with traditional silicon batteries if the efficiency of titanium dioxide batteries can be raised by up to 30%.

Global Titanium Ore Production by Country

In 2020, after two years of growth, there was a decline in the production of titanium ores and concentrates, when its volume decreased by -1.2% to 13M tonnes. In value terms, titanium ore and concentrate production shrank slightly to $7.8B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The countries with the highest volumes of titanium ore and concentrate production in 2020 were China (4.2M tonnes), Canada (2.1M tonnes) and Mozambique (1M tonnes), with a combined 56% share of global production. These countries were followed by South Africa, Australia, Ukraine, Norway, Senegal, Madagascar, Kenya, South Korea, India and Viet Nam, which together accounted for a further 40%. Moreover, titanium ore and concentrate production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest producer, Canada, twofold.

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of titanium ore and concentrate production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Senegal, while titanium ore and concentrate production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Titanium Ore Exports by Country

In 2020, shipments abroad of titanium ores and concentrates decreased by -20.3% to 3.1M tonnes, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. In value terms, titanium ore and concentrate exports fell to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, South Africa (724K tonnes), Ukraine (539K tonnes), Senegal (509K tonnes), Kenya (400K tonnes), South Korea (275K tonnes) and India (255K tonnes) represented the key exporter of titanium ores and concentrates in the world, achieving 86% of total export. It was distantly followed by Australia (152K tonnes), committing a 4.8% share of total exports. The U.S. (58K tonnes) took a little share of total exports.

In value terms, South Africa ($486M) remains the largest titanium ore and concentrate supplier worldwide, comprising 38% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Kenya ($157M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Ukraine, with a 11% share.

In 2020, the average titanium ore and concentrate export price amounted to $408 per tonne, rising by 19% against the previous year. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

manufacturing

What Manufacturing Looks Like With (and Without) ERP Software

If someone took a photo of the health of your manufacturing business, would it look like a “before” or “after” photo?

You’ve seen these kinds of pictures in weight-loss advertisements. In the before photo, an obviously overweight person looks tired, flabby, and woefully out of shape. In the after photo, the person exudes the model of good health – lean, fit, and full of energy. In the manufacturing industry, companies without ERP generally look like the before photo. Those that use ERP to run the business typically look like the after photo.

How Does ERP Turn an Overweight, Inefficient Manufacturing Business into a Lean, Fit, and Supercharged Manufacturing Machine?

Simply put, ERP provides a complete solution for what ails your manufacturing business. Created to efficiently run the entire organization from quote to cash, it touches all critical aspects of the business, allowing you to manage everything from one central location.

The power of ERP lies in its ability to provide the data you need to make smart decisions for your business. When you know what’s happening in every corner of your shop, everything gets better. People and processes become more efficient and productive. Communication between departments improves. Costs and waste go down while sales, margins and product quality go up. You can promise due dates to customers with confidence. On-time delivery becomes a way of life.

At Global Shop Solutions, our motto is “ your ERP software helps you deliver a quality product on time every time.” Our goal is for Global Shop Solutions ERP software to become the most valuable asset at your business. This short video clip provides a brief introduction to how can ERP help you attain that goal.

Manufacturing Before ERP

Manufacturing without ERP generally looks like a mess. Some of the top signs of an unhealthy manufacturing business include:

DATA CAN’T BE TRUSTED.

Manufacturing companies without ERP generally use volumes of paper documents and spreadsheets to manage production. What software they do use consists of disparate programs that can’t communicate with each other. This creates a system rife with manual errors, and inaccurate, outdated information. When you can’t trust the data guesswork prevails, and often leads to low-quality decisions.

HIT OR MISS SCHEDULING.

With no true accounting of labor and machine capacity, rough estimations drive the scheduling process. Manual scheduling can take days to complete. Making changes to jobs in progress becomes a nightmare of complexity and uncertainty. All of which result in missed due dates and dissatisfied customers. It’s no wonder many manufacturers rank scheduling as the most stressful job in the business.

INACCURATE JOB COSTING.

Few manufacturing tasks are more important than precise job costing. Without ERP, few tasks are more difficult. Manual time
sheets often contain errors. Incorrect inventory counts make it
hard to identify true material costs. Lack of real-time data makes
job costing historical rather than current. Estimating and quoting
frequently miss the mark due to imprecise and unreliable data. Not a good recipe for knowing your true costs.

INCORRECT WORK ORDERS AND ROUTERS.

In a “before” ERP environment, work order and routing information often consists of tribal knowledge that resides in the heads of a few people. Jobs often start late because the work orders and routers don’t get to the shop floor on time. Large, complex work orders can take days or weeks to construct. Human error causes shop floor mistakes that lead to costly rework and missed due dates.

POOR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT.

Manual inventory management creates a drag on virtually every aspect of production. Parts and materials get lost or misplaced. Purchasing often buys too much or too little due to imprecise inventory data. Poorly designed number structures can result in duplicate inventory. Material shortages cause jobs to start late and lead to expedited shipping costs. Inventory carrying costs go up, on-time delivery goes down, and nobody is happy about it.

INEFFICIENT MATERIAL MOVEMENT.

Inaccurate inventory is a major cause of shop floor bottlenecks. Manually tracking material movements with handwritten bin cards makes getting the right parts to the right jobs even more difficult. Bin cards get lost. Material movers sometimes forget to record their transactions. Incorrect part numbers deliver the wrong part to the job. Inventory counts for a part or material may not get updated for days after a transaction.

FINANCIAL DISCONNECT.

When the finance function doesn’t reside in an ERP system, it must produce the financial reporting with a different system – a slow, cumbersome, and inefficient process. The lack of integration with production makes the data historical rather than real-time. The numbers become out of date as soon as the next transaction occurs. Manual data entry inevitably results in human error and can take days or weeks to close the books at the end of the month.

EXCESS PURCHASING COSTS.

When the purchasing function can’t communicate with inventory, buyers often don’t know when to order parts, how many, or how much to pay. Incorrect inventory counts can cause overbuying to avoid potential part stockouts. Researching vendors for the best price and delivery times can take hours. Purchasing inefficiencies cause material costs to go up while inventory accuracy goes down.

LOW PRODUCT QUALITY.

Without ERP, quality control is a historical rather than in-the-moment process. Incorrect part numbers on work orders or routers can result in production errors. Manual scrap counts tend to be
unreliable. Jobs often continue after engineers issue a stop order because some people don’t receive the notification. All of which leads to rework, increased job costs, and dissatisfied customers.

DOUBLE DATA ENTRY.

Without ERP, customer specs, drawings, engineering documents, bills of materials (BOMs) and other job data typically require double manual entry – once by the customer and once on your end. This time-consuming process invites human error that increases labor costs and leads to mistakes on the job. The inability to integrate with CAD/CAM, nesting, and other software programs increases the time and cost required to set up and complete jobs.

With a reliable ERP software, none of the above need to happen
in your business.

Manufacturing After ERP

What does the after ERP photo look like? Generally speaking, companies that implement or convert to an ERP system with a reputation for quality and service will experience many of the following improvements.

ONE SOURCE OF TRUTH.

Imagine being able to trust the data you collect. Not just some of it, but all of it – including production schedules and promised due dates. ERP makes it happen by tracking, organizing and providing quick access to information you can count on to be accurate and up to date. Manual spreadsheets, redundant processes, and stand-alone silos of information disappear as you discover what your business can achieve with data you can trust.

FULLY INTEGRATED SCHEDULING.

The toughest job in the plant becomes far less stressful with ERP. Instantly identify your true labor and resource capacities. Engage in “what-if” scenario planning to see how potential schedule changes will affect other jobs. Use finite and infinite scheduling to make long-term scheduling decisions. When you get the schedule right, shop floor personnel always know what to be working on now and what to work on next.

PRECISE JOB COSTING.

ERP gives you certainty in your job costing by providing detailed cost breakdowns for inventory, jobs sequences and cost of goods
sold. It tracks every cost that goes into a project – from labor and parts to setup times, tool and equipment usage, indirect labor,
outside work, and more – with remarkable precision. Estimate
and quoting become more accurate. Cost overruns are easy to spot. Comparing actual to estimate becomes a powerful tool for identifying problems and areas for improvement. When a job is finished you know the total cost down to the penny.

ACCURATE WORK ORDERS AND ROUTERS.

Work orders act as the architectural blueprint for each job; routers provide the road map to get there. ERP electronically sends these critical documents to the shop floor, ensuring the correct versions get there on time, every time. Large, complex routers and BOMs can be built in a few hours rather than days or weeks. Work orders and routers become trusted tools that speed the production process rather than causing bottlenecks.

DIGITAL INVENTORY MANAGEMENT.

Accurate inventory injects a new level of speed and efficiency into the entire production process. With a few clicks of a mouse you can see how much of a part or material you have on hand, where it is, how much is already allocated to jobs, and when ordered parts will arrive. In short, everything you need to know to accept a due date or get a job started on time. Cycle times become simple to track. Physical counts often take hours rather than days or weeks. Inventory stockouts become a thing of the past.

MOBILE MATERIAL MOVEMENT.

ERP transforms material movement by seamlessly aligning with mobile technology. Using handheld scanners and mobile devices, part movers can make material transactions from anywhere on the shop floor. Every transaction is instantly recorded in inventory, keeping the location and number of parts always up to date. Movers no longer waste hours looking for misplaced inventory, and the right materials get to the right jobs when operators need them.

PURCHASING AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.

ERP purchasing consolidates all work order and inventory data so you can make smart purchasing decisions. Purchases can be automated, giving buyers time to research vendors and negotiate better deals. Buyers can forecast future purchases based on customer history. The system even identifies when new purchasing actions are required due to job changes. ERP purchasing does all this and more – all from one screen.

REAL-TIME QUALITY.

ERP provides a robust array of tracking, statistical analysis, and reporting tools, including complete traceability of every part that moves through the shop floor. Live production data lets you measure quality by part, employee, machine, defect code and other criteria. The system automatically alerts you to non-conforming parts while jobs are in progress. Producing documentation for ISO and other quality certifications can be accomplished in minutes. When you hold employees accountable for their scrap, the cost of quality declines.

THIRD-PARTY SOFTWARE INTERFACES.

Electronic Data Integration (EDI), nesting and other software interfaces allow your ERP system to seamlessly exchange information with third-party software programs. This eliminates the need for duplicate data entry on the receiving end and prevents double entry mistakes. CAD/CAM interfaces save hours of high-cost engineer time by directly importing CAD/CAM drawings and data in digital format. Nesting interfaces send designs directly to cutting machines to optimize material usage. Payroll interfaces automatically send hours, pay rates, and other data to your payroll vendor for rapid processing. The possibilities for how much time, money and effort integrations and interfaces can save you are endless.

Get Lean and Fit with ERP

Manufacturing is a complex process, no matter what products you make or what processes you use. ERP simplifies manufacturing by providing real-time data visibility at every step of the production process. Knowing what you need to know to eliminate waste, reduce costs, and get quality parts out the door on time every is only a few mouse clicks or keystrokes away, whenever you need it.

Wondering How Your Business Is Doing Overall?

Take the 10-minute Manufacturing Health Test to see how you compare against other manufacturers. Then call us at 1.800.364.5958 start turning your business photo from a before to an after.

____________________________________________________________________

Mike Melzer serves as VP of Service & Operations for Global Shop
Solutions and is a 20-year veteran of the company. As a graduate from The Colorado School of Mines, Melzer is an unparalleled leader helping the best manufacturers use their ERP software to make their shops leaner and more efficient.

To learn more about What Manufacturing Looks Like With (and Without) ERP Software, call 1.800.364.5958 or visit www.globalshopsolutions.com.

lactose

The U.S. Lactose Export Prices Soar

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Lactose And Lactose Syrup – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The U.S. remains the leading supplier of lactose and lactose syrup with a 36%-share in global exports. While the volume of lactose shipments from the U.S. was almost unchanged from the previous year, exports in value terms jumped by 8% to $396, as the average exports price has significantly risen. Despite the trade tensions, China remains the key importer of lactose from the U.S., followed by New Zealand and Japan.

Exports from the U.S. by Country

The U.S. remains the largest exporter of lactose and lactose syrup worldwide, accounting for 36% of the global exports. In 2020, lactose exports from the U.S. fell modestly to 379K tonnes, standing approx. at the year before. In value terms, lactose exports expanded rapidly by +8.2% to $396M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, the average lactose export price amounted to $1,045 per tonne, with an increase of +8.3% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,314 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Viet Nam ($857 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Viet Nam, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

China (69K tonnes), New Zealand (46K tonnes) and Japan (42K tonnes) were the main destinations of lactose exports from the U.S., together comprising 41% of total exports. Mexico, Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, South Korea, India, Singapore, Thailand, Canada and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 46%.

In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Thailand, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($74M), New Zealand ($48M) and Japan ($41M) were the largest markets for lactose exported from the U.S. worldwide, together accounting for 41% of total exports. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, India, the Philippines, Viet Nam, Thailand, Singapore, Canada and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

Source: IndexBox Platform

shipping costs

Why Do Global Shipping Costs Continue to Skyrocket?

Global shipping costs are reaching rarely seen levels, putting strain on logistics teams and product purchasers alike. Here’s a closer look at some of the reasons for this phenomenon.

Worsening Container Delays Create Bidding Wars

Port backups were among the issues of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, they persist now, limiting the number of containers each port can efficiently accommodate. Relatedly, the shipping customers outpace the available space in each container. That problem makes prices rise so high that some entities lose out because they cannot afford to pay them.

Port Backups Cause Headaches

Some port backups are so severe that ships arrive unable to dock. That’s an ongoing situation at Washington State ports in Tacoma and Seattle. U.S. Coast Guard representatives helped redirect some vessels as they waited days or weeks to unload. Some ended up in unusual locations, such as off the Puget Sound. The offloading delays also cause a container shortage that affects new freight.

HMM, South Korea’s top national container carrier, recently reported severe vessel berthing congestion at most of its port calls, as well as related yard and gate issues. Other providers reported similar disruptions. However, the affected parties disagree about what’s to blame. The carriers often assert that ports are not sufficiently well-managed, which causes the delays. But port managers respond that carriers have not met their berthing window requirements.

Bids Can Reach the Tens of Thousands of Dollars

In any case, these slowdowns have made it exceptionally challenging to keep goods moving. Desperation makes some parties engage in bidding wars.

Philip Damas, head of the supply chain advisors practice at Drewry, a maritime research consultancy, explained, “Everyone is spending much longer on round trips. Containers are sitting on the water for much longer periods of time, containers are waiting at ports for much longer. Productivity in container shipping is deteriorating. Every failure is effectively creating ripple effects. It’s a vicious cycle.”

He continued by clarifying that freight indexes that track the changes in shipping costs usually gather the associated spot booking prices that get offered about a week before a ship departs. However, some ocean carriers offer available slots in shorter timeframes once the vessels are already at terminals. By then, there are plenty of customers eager to get goods on board at the last minute.

“Now everything is overbooked,” Damas said. “Shippers are desperate to book tomorrow. It’s more a bidding war than it is a traditional tariff, and this bidding war is accelerating. Some of these $23,000, $24,000 prices include the inland distribution cost, and that can easily add far more to the final cost.”

A combination of factors means many shippers decide there’s no choice but to pay those high prices. One longstanding issue is that carriers have cut capacity on major routes. Plus, the container shortage caused by backups escalates the problem. Shippers often realize they have to pay higher prices or leave the overseas markets.

Increased Demand From Customers Exacerbates the Issue

Company leaders usually appreciate when their products are in high demand, but the matter becomes more complicated when shipping costs are so high. In such cases, it’s necessary to either invest massive amounts of money to alleviate the shipping struggles or face lengthy delays that could upset customers.

For example, Amazon manages its own logistics system with extraordinary efficiency. However, that decision means building huge distribution centers as close as possible to the people who place orders. The company even began purchasing jets in early 2021 to exert more control over its air shipping options. However, most other brands don’t have such gigantic resources. Plus, the strategy may not pay off forever.

In the second quarter of 2020, Amazon showed a 68% increase in money spent on shipping. The e-commerce giant has yet to raise shipping costs for consumers, but other brands have already taken that approach. The rise in global shipping costs could even cause long-term stock shortages.

A Luggage Brand Goes to Great Lengths to Receive Goods

In one case, a global luggage company usually receives 11 container deliveries annually by August. That scheduling gets the goods to the merchant in time for the holidays. But, this year, it has only received three of the 11 so far, and not without significant expense.

The company normally pays $2,500 per 40-foot container. But representatives got an offer from an entity promising to get the container onto a ship in Thailand for $15,000. However, people at the company had to first get the goods to the vessel from Myanmar — a challenge in itself due to a trucking shortage affecting Asia. The brand eventually secured the necessary trucking assistance for $3,000.

In the end, the brand paid $18,000 to have its goods shipped. This example shows how much the global shipping crisis can quickly eat into profits. Another downside is that the container’s goods had a $30,000 value, so sending them cost more than half that amount.

The company reported that consumer demand was up, which is usually a positive thing. It’s probably in large part because of how people are starting to travel for pleasure more with the air travel industry beginning to recover and offer more routes.

Fewer Overall Affordable and Available Transport Options

A lack of choices to move goods also contributes to soaring global shipping costs. Some parties may get their products shipped by train and air when possible, but capacity limits exist there, too. The rush to get goods shipped causes a crunch that requires scrambling for any available slots offered via any kind of transit. Plus, air shipments are much costlier than those sent by sea, with some estimates saying that method is at least five times more expensive.

Severe weather can wreak havoc, too. In July 2021, a typhoon hit China and closed the country’s air, sea, and rail hubs. Earlier in the year, snowstorms forced some rail freight operators to temporarily cease running some routes. These challenges mean some customers decide they must cope with the tremendous shipping costs because there aren’t many other viable options.

Some brands are also trying to cope with delays within the supply chain by making up time at other points. One way to do that is with drones. Supermarket chain Tesco carried out a trial where some customers in Ireland received grocery orders only 200 seconds after the goods departed the store property.

In another instance, DHL partnered with a cargo drone company. The agreement involves using and managing several thousand drones to give customers same-day deliveries. Drone deliveries are not yet widespread options. However, they could become more popular, particularly as shipping professionals look for feasible ways to cut costs while keeping customers happy.

No Short-Term Price Easing

Analysts believe the global shipping costs will not return to more manageable levels during 2021. There are certainly not any quick fixes to the problem. Thus, the parties affected by it must decide on the most appropriate ways to deal with it, even if that means accepting astronomical prices or restructuring supply chains to avoid long-distance shipments as much as possible.

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Emily Newton is an industrial journalist. As Editor-in-Chief of Revolutionized, she regularly covers how technology is changing the industry.

electronics

Consumer Electronics Market Revenue to Hit $1500 Bn by 2027

Consumer electronics market size is estimated to exceed USD 1.5 trillion by 2027, according to a new report by Global Market Insights, Inc. Amid the tremendous shifts in the technological domain, consumer electronics companies across the globe are focusing on introducing new and attractive features to the widely used devices like smartphones, laptops, computers, cameras, televisions, speakers, etc. It has become more important than ever for the companies operating in the consumer electronics market to seek new ways to innovate their products to reach a large consumer base.

The industry has embraced disruptive technologies such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and machine learning which in turn is impelling the application of consumer electronics. In addition to this, the proliferation of wireless technologies such as Near Field Communication (NFC), Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi is further supporting product adoption, subsequently leading to industrial growth.

Following pivotal trends:

Innovative product launches by market players

Manufacturers active in the consumer electronics industry are mainly focusing on product innovations in order to gain a competitive edge which itself is paving way for enormous growth opportunities for the market. Quoting an instance, in 2021, Canon revealed its plans to roll out the XF505 video camera later in 2021. According to the company, this camera will be equipped with a variety of features including an integrated zoom lens with 15x zoom, one-inch image sensors, and intelligent battery system BP-A batteries.

The growing popularity of audio and video equipment

With the emergence of multimedia and incorporation of various smart technologies, audio and video equipment such as televisions, digital cameras, speakers, players, remote controls, headsets, etc., are gaining massive traction across the globe. Speaking of television, its technology landscape has enormously transformed in recent years with the advent of smart TVs. These TVs are generally equipped with a wide range of exciting features like browsing the web and social media, online streaming, smartphone connectivity, motion control, voice control, games, and applications. Growing consumer preference for such devices coupled with increased spending capacity is impelling their demand to a great extent.

Increasing demand for household appliances

Significant growth in the residential sector globally, in conjunction with increasing disposable incomes, has strongly influenced the demand for small household appliances such as microwave ovens and mixers. Other kitchen appliances such as dishwashers and smart coffee makers are also witnessing a mounting demand on account of changing lifestyles in urban areas. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, exports of household and kitchen appliances in the U.S. increased to USD 603 million in May from USD 602.44 million in April 2021.

A strong presence of major technology companies in North America

The outlook of the consumer electronics industry in North America has been bolstered by the heightened demand for smart household appliances and mainly by the strong presence of major technology companies like Google, Apple, Amazon, and General Electric. These companies are involved in rigorous R&D and are making hefty investments for the same. To illustrate, credible sources have reported that tech giant Apple Inc is working on a new product line that combines Apple TV set-top box and a HomePod speaker as well as a camera for video conferencing. This product is expected to be one of the most powerful smart home devices by the company.

Source: Global Market Insights, Inc

china

China Will Continue to Be a Major Contributor to Global Trade Growth in 2022

Despite the twin impacts of the pandemic and the US-China trade war, economic indicators suggest that China will continue to grow rapidly through the next year and will be one of the biggest contributors to global trade growth in 2022. 

Indeed, in some ways, the current trajectory of China’s economic growth and trade surplus – both highly positive – is a return to normal. Though many feared that the pandemic and the US trade war would cause long-term, structural damage to China’s trading and economic infrastructure, it appears that this was not the case. In fact, changes to the way supply chains work may mean that China is now in a stronger position than it was at the beginning of the pandemic – a luxury that other countries can only dream of.

In this article, we’ll look at the most recent economic indications from China, explain what they mean for global trade, and see how analysts and governments in the West are responding to these signs.

Positive indications

First, let’s look at the state of the Chinese economy. Here, the news is very positive. On almost any measure that is commonly used as a proxy for consumer demand – the Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI), electricity consumption, bank lending, etc. – the Chinese economy is booming. 

Though many analysts expected that consumer demand would be significantly down in 2021, in actuality, China is experiencing strong demand in both domestic and foreign markets. The Chinese government continues to invest heavily in making China a tech superpower, and so far, they are mostly succeeding. 

There are some complexities hidden behind this headline, though. One is that China has seen heavy food price inflation over the past few months driven, in part, by the US-China trade war. For many households in the country, food makes up a sizable proportion of the household budget. 

On the other hand, it seems that the pandemic has not affected the Chinese economy to anywhere near the degree that some experts expected. The transition to remote working for office workers, for instance, went more smoothly than had been predicted and occurred without a net loss to the economy. This was the case in some other countries too – remote workers contributed $1.2 trillion to the US economy alone last year, a 22% increase from 2019 – but it was especially pronounced in China.

 

Increased foreign trade

Since both domestic and foreign demand for Chinese goods remains high, we are likely to see China’s share of global trade increase over the next year. This is also a continuation of the pre-pandemic trend, which saw gradually increasing volumes of high-value finished goods being exported from China.

When it comes to global trade volumes, the picture is not completely positive, however. Though demand for Chinese goods remains high, the pandemic has imposed new restrictions and complexities on exporters. This is likely to slightly reduce trading volumes over the next year. That said, China is already a titan when it comes to global trade, and a slight reduction in growth is not likely to affect that. 

Liang Ming of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation predicted that the country’s total foreign trade will be near five and a half trillion by the end of 2021. In fact, since that prediction was made, market conditions have only grown more positive for Chinese exporters. 

Many manufacturers in the country have used enforced lockdown periods to update and improve their logistics and supply chains for the post-Covid world, and many of their trading partners have come out of the pandemic more quickly than expected. 

Calls for decoupling

All this is great news for China, and specifically for Chinese exporters. It might not be such good news, however, for the countries that buy goods from China. This includes the US and the majority of European nations, all of whom are heavy consumers of Chinese-made goods. Many analysts are alarmed at the growing dominance of China in global trade, pointing out that this could be dangerous for the world’s privacy and safety.

The numbers are certainly impressive. Official data released from the Chinese government in July 2021 showed that for the first half of the year the country’s foreign trade surged to 18.07 trillion yuan, equal to roughly $2.79 trillion USD. This was despite many industries being affected by the US trade war and despite calls in the US for the country to transition away from its dependence on China.

There are other concerns about granting China a larger portion of the global economy. Specifically, concerns about the privacy of data collected by Chinese companies remain high, as do concerns that Chinese banks are being used to launder money on behalf of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels.

All of these concerns have led some think tanks to call for a “decoupling” from the Chinese economy. This would involve selected trade embargos in order to promote domestic production of consumer items in Western economies and to give these economies time to make back some of the gap that is opening in global trade.

Conclusion

Ultimately, the trajectory that China now finds itself on – with a growing economy and a rapidly increasing trade surplus – has been the norm for much of the last two decades. And if a global pandemic and a US-directed trade war has been unable to stop the growth of the Chinese share of global trade, it’s unlikely that anything will. 

usmca

Optimism for Growth in 2021 is Uneven in the USMCA Region

The past year and the ensuing Covid-19 recession has created a time of uncertainty and instability for economies throughout the world, and especially in the USMCA region, according to a recent Payment Practices Barometer survey from trade credit insurer Atradius.

The most telling data gathered in the region concerns business confidence, where survey results were drastically different in Mexico, Canada and the U.S. The majority of survey respondents in Mexico expect to see an improvement in business performance over the coming months, while in Canada, this picture is reversed with only a minority expressing optimism. The U.S. falls somewhere in the middle.

More than half of all sales transacted on credit

Of the total value of all B2B sales in the USMCA region, 53% were made using trade credit last year. This represents growth, as 44% of businesses told us that they increased the use of trade credit in the months following the pandemic.

Temporary fiscal packages in the U.S. and Canada have helped struggling businesses in the short term. As these are withdrawn in the coming months, we are likely to see a rise in insolvencies.

In this environment of heightened risk, it is important that businesses continually monitor the financial health of their customers and note any early warning signs of insolvency. Some of those signs may include slower payments or late payments. However, it should be taken into consideration that the pandemic has presented additional strain on the supply chain that is often out of any one company’s control, leading to slower payments.

Credit management costs rise sharply

Businesses throughout the USMCA region have reported a rise in the cost of managing their accounts receivable in the months following the Covid-19 outbreak. The sharpest rises were reported by businesses that managed credit and collections in-house.

In part, this rise can be attributed to an increase in the percentage of sales made on credit; simply a greater number of credit sales requires more resources to manage them. However, this may also be an indicator of a deteriorating risk environment, as the longer an invoice remains unpaid, the more resources it takes to collect on it.

For businesses that do not use trade credit insurance or an invoice collection service such as factoring, rising payment delays equate to rising costs. Businesses that do outsource credit management to such services enjoy the certainty that their invoice will be paid and that management costs will not escalate.

Businesses favor domestic markets for credit sales

The USMCA region saw many more domestic credit sales than foreign credit sales in the year following the outbreak of the pandemic, with a 60/40 split in favor of domestic customers. This could have been caused by the supply chain challenges that followed the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to concerns over offering credit to foreign customers.

Businesses outside of the USMCA region should approach trade in the region with optimism. While it is clear that the Covid-19 pandemic is not over, the region is rebounding as expected. If there’s one thing that businesses around the world have learned is that offering more flexibility within their supply chains can help tremendously in the face of unexpected events like the Suez Canal blockage, where its effects were compounded by the pandemic’s supply chain disruptions. Companies that diversify their customer base will be better prepared to capitalize on opportunities should their competitors face unexpected disruptions to their supply chain.

Uneven outlooks for growth

On average, most businesses across the region are positive in their outlook and expect to see improvement in the second half of 2021. Upon a closer examination, a country-by-country comparison reveals a vastly different picture. In Mexico, 81% of businesses surveyed anticipate growth, while 36% of businesses in Canada hold the same view. Businesses in the U.S. fall about halfway between these poles. However, it should be taken into consideration that each country in the USMCA all started from very different places before the pandemic, making their perceptions of recovery different.

Businesses in Mexico were experiencing a recession long before the COVID-19 pandemic and received limited financial support from their government over the past year and a half. In contrast, both the U.S. and Canada started from a stronger economic position going into the pandemic and have received substantial financial help from their governments to stay afloat.

Businesses in both Canada and the U.S. may be bracing themselves for the removal of government fiscal support as well, which will have a much greater impact on their business than those in Mexico who are used to the lack of government support and ready for a rebound.

Post-recession growth is predicted for all of the countries in the USMCA region. It will be interesting to see which businesses thrive and grow during this period and whether the optimism and pessimism expressed by the survey respondents comes to pass over the next year.

______________________________________________________________________

Aaron Rutstein is the Vice President – Regional Director, Risk Services – Americas at Atradius

coffee

Coffee Prices Jump to Seven-Year Highs Due to Brazilian Frosts

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coffee (Green) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global prices for coffee have skyrocketed to a seven-year high, driven by fears of a significant reduction in production in Brazil due to freezes and the depletion of global stocks. Further growth in prices for the product will be stimulated by the reduction in production in other leading supplying countries such as Honduras and Indonesia, coupled with increased freight costs. A decrease in coffee production will lead to a fall in global exports by -4% y-o-y, which could lead to local imbalances in supply and demand and drive up consumer prices in key European and American markets.

Key Trends and Insights

Due to an expected reduction in coffee stocks following the fall of production in Brazil, prices on the global coffee market have skyrocketed in the middle of the current year. Futures in Arabica on the ICE exchange in July 2021 exceeded $2 per pound for the first time in seven years.

Abnormal freezes in the Brazilian states of São-Paolo, Paraná, and Minas Gerais in July this year damaged more than 200K hectares and will affect plantation yields. As a result, coffee production according to USDA estimates may decline by -30% y-o-y to 2.2M tonnes by the end of 2021. Labor shortages related to the pandemic, logistical difficulties and the rise of freight costs are further deterring supply and stimulating the price increases.

Brazil remains the leading supplier of green coffee with 29.3% of global exports. Following that is Vietnam (17.2%), Colombia (10.3%), Honduras (5.2%) and Indonesia (3.4%). Global coffee exports will fall by -4% y-o-y to 16.6M tonnes in 2021 owing primarily to the reduction in supplies from Brazil.

According to IndexBox estimates, based on USDA data, the production of Arabica coffee in Vietnam will rise by +15% y-o-y in the current year and the production of Robusta will contract by -2% y-o-y. In Colombia, coffee production will maintain its 2020 levels. Production in Honduras and Indonesia is expected to decline by -12% y-o-y and –2% y-o-y respectively. The expected drop in global coffee production by -6% y-o-y to 9.8M tonnes amidst an increase in demand by +1% y-o-y this year will lead to a reduction in world stocks and further increases in price.

The import of green coffee into the EU should fall by -5% y-o-y up to 2.9M tonnes due to the decrease in crop fields in the primary supplier countries of Brazil and Honduras. In the U.S. a less severe drop in imports is expected – by -1% y-o-y to 4.2M tonnes since a significant part of coffee beans comes from countries with stable crop yields during the current year, such as Vietnam and Colombia. A reduction in coffee stocks can lead to imbalances of supply and demand that will threaten the growth of consumer prices for the drink in retail and food services.

Global Coffee Production

In 2020, approx. 10M tonnes of coffee (green) were produced worldwide; surging by 1.8% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, green coffee production rose markedly to $27.7B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

The countries with the highest volumes of green coffee production in 2020 were Brazil (3.1M tonnes), Viet Nam (1.7M tonnes) and Colombia (897K tonnes), with a combined 55% share of global production. These countries were followed by Indonesia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru, India, Uganda, Guatemala, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Nicaragua and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 33%.

Coffee Exports by Country

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of coffee (green) decreased by -6.5% to 6.8M tonnes in 2020. In value terms, green coffee exports fell to $17.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Brazil (2.4M tonnes) was the largest exporter of coffee (green), mixing up 35% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Viet Nam (1,208K tonnes), Colombia (599K tonnes) and Indonesia (376K tonnes), together committing a 32% share of total exports. The following exporters – Honduras (305K tonnes), Germany (210K tonnes), India (206K tonnes), Uganda (205K tonnes), Guatemala (190K tonnes), Ethiopia (175K tonnes), Peru (172K tonnes) and Nicaragua (128K tonnes) – together made up 23% of total exports.

In value terms, Brazil ($5B) remains the largest green coffee supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Colombia ($2.4B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Viet Nam, with a 11% share.

In 2020, the average green coffee export price amounted to $2,531 per tonne, increasing by 4% against the previous year. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Peru, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform