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Xeneta Forecasts Another Tough Year for Container Shipping as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

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Xeneta Forecasts Another Tough Year for Container Shipping as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The 2025 Ocean Outlook report from Xeneta signals a challenging year ahead for container shipping, warning of heightened geopolitical risks that could disrupt global supply chains. “The lights are flashing red on the geopolitical dashboard, and it would be foolish to ignore them,” Xeneta cautions.

Read also: Port Strikes on US East Coast will Cause Major Supply Disruption into 2025

If 2024 was marked by conflict in the Red Sea, similar threats could persist in 2025, with no sign of stability that would allow the safe return of container vessels to the region. Detours around Africa have stretched TEU-mile demand, and while new ships and slower growth in TEU volume may help ease some pressure, they won’t compensate for another major disruption. Geopolitical concerns range from the possibility of conflict escalation in the Taiwan Strait to potential unrest in Bangladesh and worsening conditions in the Middle East, particularly around the Persian Gulf.

Key Market Trends in 2025

Xeneta notes that spot rates have softened from their July peak as the long-term market trends upward. This narrowing gap between spot and long-term rates will be critical as contract negotiations for 2025 approach. While shippers hope for further narrowing, carriers aim to keep spot rates elevated to secure favorable terms.

Demand for container shipping is projected to grow by three percent in 2025, down slightly from the 4-5 percent growth in 2024, which will break the 180 million TEU mark. Trade from China to Mexico, however, continues to soar, driven by tensions between China and the U.S. and Mexico’s role as a “backdoor” for avoiding U.S. tariffs. Year-to-date, TEU demand between China and Mexico has surged 22.1 percent compared to 2023, following a 34.6 percent jump in 2023. Demand is also up between China and the Middle East, where volumes have risen 52 percent since 2021.

Influence of U.S. Elections and Shifting Alliances

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election could reshape the container shipping landscape, with potential new tariffs on Chinese imports prompting shippers to reconsider supply chain routes and possibly increase imports from Mexico. “2024 saw heavy frontloading of cargoes and extended sailing distances, which could change in 2025, presenting a risk to demand unless conditions become even more volatile,” says Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta.

Shifts in shipping alliances will impact network choices in 2025, with OCEAN Alliance, Gemini, and Premier Alliance all adjusting routes and port calls. For instance, MSC is expected to dominate Far East–Antwerp routes with four weekly calls, compared to one from Premier Alliance and none from Gemini. Shippers may need to reassess their carrier choices based on cost, reliability, and port access, and Sand advises them to keep options open and hold carriers accountable for service quality.

After a turbulent 2024, shippers are hoping for smoother seas in 2025. However, Xeneta urges caution, warning them to stay prepared for further disruptions and challenges in the year ahead.

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Container Trading and Leasing Rates Decline in China ahead of the Golden Week

This month’s China market update is packed with developments that could potentially disrupt supply chains both within China and from China to key markets like the U.S. and Europe.

Read also: Mixed Signals from China’s Shipping Container Trading and Leasing Markets

Typhoons slow down berthing times and container operations in key chinese ports

Last week, China experienced its worst typhoon in 75 years, making landfall on the east coast. 

Hapag-Lloyd reports that ships are now facing delays of 36-60 hours to berth in Shanghai, while Ningbo faces waiting times of 24-48 hours. This bottleneck is expected to worsen as Typhoon Pulasan approaches, potentially exacerbating the already strained situation.

Several ports in Ningbo and Shanghai have announced the suspension of container operations. 

East coast labor strikes affecting U.S.-bound shipments

On the U.S. front, the ongoing threat of labor strikes at East Coast ports has created uncertainty. These strikes are expected to affect operations at the ports in the east coast. This has led to an acceleration in orders over the past two to three months, with businesses pulling forward shipments to mitigate potential delays.

“In light of the recent robust U.S. economic growth, particularly in consumer spending (expected to rise 2.4% in 2024), businesses have been pulling forward shipments to mitigate potential delays. This consumer demand, coupled with a projected 3.8% increase in imports in 2024, represents the significance of timely shipping from China.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, an online global container trading and leasing marketplace based in Hamburg, Germany. 

Golden week approaching; another factor for slowdown

Our regular surveys indicate that demand for U.S.-bound shipments from China remains strong, especially with Golden Week looming. Golden Week, starting October 1, traditionally causes a temporary slowdown in logistics activities across China, with a noticeable dip lasting between seven and ten days.

With these events in combination—the U.S. labor strikes, upcoming Golden Week, and port suspensions—the China-to-U.S. shipping route is set to be volatile and uncertain over the next 20 days.

Container market conditions in China: Softening demand and container prices

Despite these uncertainties, there is no significant congestion or market tightening within China itself. Several customers have reported a drop in container prices and lower COC (Carrier-Owned Container) rates, suggesting a softening demand for exports from China.

Average container prices on a downward trend

As of September 2024, average container prices in China have maintained their downward trajectory, with declines accelerating ahead of the Golden Week holidays. This drop reflects a broader reduction in demand for container shipments.

Prices have fallen by 25% year over year, from $3,012 in September 2023 to $2,525 in September 2024. This year, container prices peaked at $2,603 in July 2024 and have been decreasing for two consecutive months.

Chart 1: Average container price chart in China

Leasing rates decline for the second month

Overall, China to US average one-way container leasing rates dropped by 35% from $1221 in the first week of August 2024, to $787 as on 23 September 2024. 

Chart 2: Average one-way container leasing rates drop by 35% from Aug -Sep’24

Average one-way leasing rates for containers from Shanghai to Los Angeles have fallen for the second consecutive month. Rates dropped from $1,149 in July to $786 in August, and to $732 as of mid-September. Despite this decline, current rates remain elevated compared to the same period in 2023, when rates were $479. We anticipate these prices to stay relatively high through the rest of the year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. East Coast strikes and the broader economic climate.

Chart 3: Average one-way container leasing rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles: July–September 2024

Industry insights and market outlook

The current challenge in the China market is the low Carrier-Owned Container (COC) rates, making it harder to send units to the U.S. This is compounded by high Pickup Charges (PUC), which have resulted in fewer Shipper-Owned Containers (SOC) reaching the U.S. Consequently, we might see rising prices for U.S.-bound shipments.

Container leasing demand is expected to slow as Golden Week approaches. Much of the Christmas and Black Friday inventory has already been shipped, with deliveries typically taking 30 to 60 days. Despite the ongoing challenges, there are no major reports of port congestion in China, though general trade volumes are declining, indicating a tougher economic environment. At present, securing containers is not an issue, though this may change as market conditions evolve.

 

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Global Container Shipping Profits Surge Amid Rising Rates and Record Volumes

The global container shipping industry experienced a significant profit surge in the second quarter, with earnings exceeding $10 billion, driven by record volumes and rising freight rates. This increase comes on the heels of disruptions in the Red Sea, according to a recent analysis.

Read also: C.H. Robinson: How Shippers can prepare for a Potential ILA Strike Amid an Increasingly Disrupted North American Shipping Landscape 

Major container carriers, including A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S from Denmark and China’s Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., saw their net income nearly double compared to the first quarter of the year. The profits even surpassed the $8.88 billion earned during the same period in 2023, as highlighted in a report by industry expert John McCown released on Saturday.

McCown anticipates that profits could continue to rise in the current quarter, given the robust state of international trade. The container shipping industry, which moves 80% of global merchandise, experienced a boom during the pandemic due to high consumer demand and supply chain disruptions. However, this was followed by a collective loss in the final quarter of 2023.

Now, the industry is once again benefiting from favorable supply and demand dynamics. Although profits are not at the heights seen during the pandemic, they are rebounding significantly. The tightening of capacity, partly due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea forcing ships to take longer routes around southern Africa, has contributed to higher spot container rates and congestion at key ports.

Despite these challenges, global container volumes reached a record high of 46.4 million units in the last quarter, measured in 20-foot containers. This surpasses the previous record of 46.2 million units set in the second quarter of 2021, according to data from Container Trades Statistics Ltd, cited by McCown.

Demand has been particularly strong in the United States, where retailers and importers are increasing their inventories amid concerns over potential new tariffs on Chinese goods and the possibility of a dockworkers’ strike at East and Gulf Coast ports.

“A strike on the US coast, whether widespread or limited to key ports, would severely disrupt container networks across major carriers and could quickly extend beyond US-specific routes,” McCown warned in his report.

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C.H. Robinson: How Shippers can prepare for a Potential ILA Strike Amid an Increasingly Disrupted North American Shipping Landscape 

C.H. Robinson’s Mia Ginter, director of North American Ocean, provides insights into the pending ILA East and Gulf coast port strike and how shippers can prepare now. While there is still hope a strike will be avoided, labor issues in Canada and ongoing ocean disruptions could heighten the impact of a strike for shippers that do not prepare with contingency plans. Here’s an overview of the potential strike and what shippers can do now to navigate it strategically:

Read also: East Coast and Gulf Coast Ports Face Strike Threat as ILA Halts Labor Negotiations

As master-contract talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) evolve, an East and Gulf Coast port strike is looking increasingly likely. And with less than two months until the current contract ends and a potential strike begins, shippers should start preparing now to avoid significant disruption.

The ILA hasn’t had a coastwide strike for nearly five decades. But there’s little doubt that a strike spanning both the East Coast and Gulf Coast – home to 5 of the 10 busiest ports in North America – would be far-reaching. No industry or region would be immune to the ripple effects of this major disruption. Both U.S. importers and exporters need to consider how a port closure would impact their freight now. Shippers with freight across Europe, Oceania, and Asia bound for the U.S. will especially feel the impact, which would cascade to disrupt the flow of freight across the U.S., Canada and Mexico. As we’ve seen with other global supply chain disruptions, this cascade would lead to both added time in transit and added costs ranging from congestion fees to possible detention and demurrage charges.

While no industry would be exempt to disruptions from an ILA strike, some would be more affected than others. For industries with just-in-time inventory models, like automotive or pharmaceuticals, even two days of strike activity could significantly disrupt operations. Many auto parts and components are imported through the East Coast, so the risk of production delays would be high. On the exporting side, shipments to Europe, Latin America and the Indian Subcontinent primarily leave from the U.S. East Coast, so exporters that rely on those trade lanes could be at a higher risk of disruption.

Today, shippers have two options for how to respond to a potential ILA strike. They can wait it out and address any disruptions if a strike happens. Or they can make contingency plans now to reduce the impact a strike would have on their shipments and their balance sheets.

 Waiting for a resolution

It is possible that the U.S. government will step in to help the ILA and USMX make a deal. The Biden administration has shown its willingness to be active in labor negotiations, as they did to avoid a rail strike in 2022. However, the ILA has stated that they don’t want the government’s help. Further complicating government intervention is the upcoming presidential election.

If the government doesn’t intervene before a potential strike starts, it would almost certainly intervene after. Stoppages of the East and Gulf Coast ports would be devastating to the economy. As a rule of thumb, a one-week disruption at a port can result in a one-month delay in a cargo’s journey.

Unlike with U.S. railroad strikes, the U.S. President or Congress cannot impose a contract on dockworkers unless legislation is passed first. However, if there is a possibility of the port strike endangering national health or safety, the President can request a court order for an 80-day cooling-off period under the Taft-Hartley Act. This action would temporarily pause the strike while negotiations continued.

 Preparing for a strike

For shippers that don’t want to risk, or can’t risk, the delays and disruptions brought on by a potential strike, preplanning will be essential.

Many importers already got ahead of a potential strike by shipping cargo into the U.S. earlier than usual this year. This was driven not only by a potential ILA strike, but also factors like continued re-routings around the Red Sea and the threat of duties on certain goods.

Even those who imported freight early need to be alert as the full scope of impact is unknown. Considering alternative port destinations is one thing, but planning for inland truck and rail will also be a critical component to cost savings and risk mitigation.

Two potential U.S. East Coast ports in the event of a strike are the non-union ports in Portland, Maine, and Chester, Pennsylvania. However, these ports are served by small, niche carriers that only support the European market with their limited capacity. Shippers that want to secure space with these carriers will need to start booking now and create a strong cadence of support with them. Otherwise, capacity will likely be gone by the time a potential strike occurs.

If shippers are willing to spend more and reroute to the U.S. West Coast, assuming there is capacity available, contingency plans will need to include inland support. East and Gulf Coast cargo diverted to the West Coast is far less likely to be prioritized for domestic intermodal truck or rail services without prior planning. In addition to capacity and delay concerns, warehousing space may be necessary to store rerouted freight until inland capacity is available.

Additionally, East-bound rail congestion could also lead to delays. Many railways are prepared with plans to route freight East from Southern California and the Pacific Northwest, but shippers should still expect significantly increased transit times.

For exporters, pre-booked ocean capacity could be left sitting at East and Gulf Coast ports until the strike is completed and ships can dock. The longer the strike, the longer it will take the ports to clear the backlog containers and resume outbound shipments. Similar congestion can be expected at alternative ports too if importers pivot to Canadian and U.S. West Coast ports to keep goods moving.

If rerouting freight through Canada, shippers will need to ensure their intended gateway is clear of its own strike risks. The Teamsters Union, which supports workers at both main Canadian railways, issued a 72-hour strike notice on August 18. This will paralyze the country’s supply chain and eliminate alternative ports and inbound capacity for shippers pivoting from the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. ILWU members at the Port of Vancouver are also expected to vote on a strike soon. Meanwhile, longshoremen at the Port of Montreal continue to work without a collective agreement.

Converting to air will be a more expensive option than using alternative ocean ports but allows shippers to pivot on short notice. Shippers considering air should keep in mind that passenger flights will be reduced between the current busy summer travel season and October. Right now, air capacity is already limited due to increased demand from e-commerce from Asia and Red Sea diversions. Some carriers are already discussing imposing peak season surcharges at the end of August or beginning of September. The longer shippers wait to book space, the less capacity will be available, and costs will only go up.

Even if you’re not importing or exporting to/from the U.S. East or Gulf Coasts, any shipment within North America will likely feel the ripple effect of this disruption. Shippers should consider how their domestic supply chain can pivot in the event of a strike. Utilizing their full network of distribution centers and warehouses, if they have them, will be key to avoid costly cross-country transportation.

 Planning for the unprecedented

Alternative ports and transportation modes could quickly become overwhelmed in the event of an ILA strike. It’s not time to press the panic button now; an ILA-USMX agreement is still possible.

But shippers that want to be prepared should be taking actions today – like staying informed on the labor situations in the U.S. and Canada, identifying alternative gateways, or possibly, starting to move cargo to niche carriers or alternate modes.

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TT Club Urges Global Supply Chain to Address Rising Container Ship Fire Risks

In response to a series of recent container ship fires, international freight and logistics insurance provider TT Club is calling for heightened awareness and responsibility across the global supply chain in the handling of dangerous goods. The past four months have seen four significant incidents involving container ships, two at sea and two in port, underscoring the urgent need for accurate cargo classification, packaging, and communication.

Read also: TT Club Stresses Ongoing Efforts to Prevent Container Losses at Sea

The tragic list of incidents includes the ‘Northern Juvenile’ in the South China Sea, the ‘Maersk Frankfurt’ in the Indian Ocean, and more recent fires on the ‘MSC Cape Town III’ in Colombo and ‘YM Mobility’ in Ningbo. According to TT Club’s Peregrine Storrs-Fox, investigations suggest that potentially explosive chemicals and fire accelerators, such as lithium-ion batteries, may have contributed to at least two of these cases. The incidents highlight the critical need for diligent cargo handling and communication at every stage of the supply chain to prevent these catastrophic events.

Although the average frequency of such fires over the past 30 years remains approximately one every 60 days, TT Club stresses that even one life-threatening event is too many. The organization notes that while two of the recent fires occurred while ships were berthed, allowing for a quick response from shore-side emergency services, incidents at sea can result in far more severe consequences, as seen with the ‘Maersk Frankfurt,’ where one crewman lost his life.

Accurate declaration of dangerous goods remains a significant challenge, with the IMO’s 2022 amendment to the ‘Guidelines for the Implementation of the Inspection Programs for Cargo Transport Units’ emphasizing the need for governments to inspect all cargo, regardless of its declared contents. However, recent findings from a small sample of inspections highlight ongoing safety concerns, particularly in placarding, marking, stowage, and documentation.

TT Club commends recent statements by China’s Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) that emphasize the responsibilities of both shippers and carriers. However, the organization warns that regulations alone are not enough and urges all supply chain participants to prioritize safety, due diligence, and clear communication to prevent future disasters.

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US Consumer Spending Remains Steady, No Signs of Early Peak Season Surge

Recent data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reveals that consumer spending in the US has not experienced a sudden surge, supporting the idea that the early peak season for container goods is driven more by front-loading of imports than by an increase in consumer demand.

Read also: US Consumer Spending Trends Reshaping Container Shipping Dynamics

© Sea-Intelligence

According to Sea-Intelligence, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate for ‘durable goods’ declined sharply in early 2024 and, despite a recovery, has not reached 2023 levels. Conversely, spending on ‘non-durable goods’ has shown consistent growth since late 2022, but there has been no unexpected spike in consumer spending during late spring and early summer of 2024.

The only notable rise in consumer expenditure within the ‘goods’ category is in ‘recreational goods and vehicles,’ which jumped from 10.2% in 2019 to 15.1% in June 2024. However, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, highlighted that this increase is primarily driven by ‘information processing equipment,’ such as ‘computer software and accessories,’ which do not rely on container shipping. As a result, the boost in consumer spending in this sector has not translated into significant growth for the container shipping industry.

© Sea-Intelligence

Murphy emphasized that none of the categories supporting container shipping have seen substantial growth recently, suggesting that the uptick in container volumes in May and June was largely due to the front-loading of peak season cargo rather than a genuine surge in consumer demand. Additionally, the US Census Bureau reported no significant jump in container demand before the sharp rise in container spot prices.

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Essential Measures for Minimizing Disruption Amid Ningbo Port Closure

Container xChange, an online container trading and leasing marketplace, is alerting the global container trading and leasing community to the serious repercussions of the recent explosion aboard the Yang Ming vessel YM Mobility at Ningbo Port, China. This incident, which has led to the closure of one of the world’s busiest container terminals, is expected to have significant ripple effects across global supply chains, especially on the main trade lanes out of Asia.

Read also: Hazardous Container Explosion Sparks Fire at Ningbo Port; No Injuries Reported

On August 9, 2024, a container loaded with hazardous materials exploded aboard the YM Mobility while it was berthed at Ningbo Beilun’s Phase III Terminal. The explosion, which involved organic peroxide materials, has led to the closure of the terminal until further notice. 

“With this closure, Ningbo Port is no longer operational, compounding existing supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Typhoon Gaemi in July.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange. 

Christian Roeloffs emphasized the critical need for preparedness in the face of such disruptions. “The closure of Ningbo Port is a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Container trading companies and those involved in leasing must act swiftly to mitigate the impact. Proactive measures, such as diversifying sourcing strategies and closely monitoring port operations, will be essential to maintaining business continuity.”

“For container trading companies and those involved in container leasing, this incident presents some straightforward challenges worth accounting for. The disruption at the Ningbo Port, combined with pre-existing congestion at major Asian ports, will lead to a deterioration of ocean schedules and further delays in container availability. Companies must brace for increased dwell times, potential rerouting of shipments, and a tightening of available container supplies, especially for hazardous and dangerous goods.” shared Roeloffs. 

Recommended Actions:

  • Rerouting Shipping Routes: Companies are exploring and evaluating alternative shipping routes through less congested ports to avoid delays. The closure of Ningbo will likely increase congestion at neighboring ports, so proactive planning is crucial.
  • Increase Safety Protocols: Rigorous inspections and adherence to safety protocols, particularly for hazardous goods, must be prioritized to prevent similar incidents. (Read our detailed blogpost here
  • Stay Informed: Regular updates from shipping partners and port authorities will be crucial in adjusting operations in real-time. Companies should maintain open lines of communication to adjust operations in real-time.
  • Plan for Extended Dwell Times: With delays expected to increase, companies should anticipate longer dwell times at major ports and adjust their inventory and delivery schedules accordingly. Companies should plan for extended delays and consider increasing inventory levels to avoid disruptions.

As the situation unfolds, Container xChange will continue to provide updates and insights to help our customers and partners navigate these challenges. We urge all industry players to stay vigilant and take necessary precautions to minimize disruptions to their operations.

“Container xChange’s platform facilitates communication and collaboration between container traders and leasing companies around the world. This can be valuable for coordinating responses to the Ningbo disruption and to find solutions quickly. With access to a wide network of container traders and leasing companies, container users can find and secure containers easily from alternative sources. This can be crucial for managing inventory and avoiding delays caused by the Ningbo Port closure.” shared Adrian Degode, Customer Success & Operations Lead, Container xChange.

“In light of the recent disruption caused by the Ningbo Port incident, Container xChange’s insurance provides essential protection against the risks of total loss, damage, and mysterious disappearance of containers. Our comprehensive coverage includes protection for both total and constructive total loss, general average, and more, ensuring that container traders and leasing companies can mitigate financial impacts and maintain operational stability. With flexible billing options and support for claims processing, our insurance is designed to offer peace of mind and support during these challenging times.”  added Degode. 

 

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Hazardous Container Explosion Sparks Fire at Ningbo Port; No Injuries Reported

A hazardous goods container exploded today aboard a cargo ship docked at China’s busy Ningbo port.

Fortunately, no casualties or injuries have been reported so far. The explosion occurred on the YM Mobility ship, igniting a fire that has since been brought under control. All crew members on board were safely evacuated without incident.

The Liberia-flagged vessel had arrived in Ningbo after its last port of call in Shanghai, as per MarineTraffic tracking data. According to a post on Chinese social media by state-owned port operator Ningbo-Zhoushan, the ship was docked at the Beilun 2 container terminal at the time of the explosion.

Both Yang Ming and the port operator stated that the exact cause of the explosion remains unclear. Yang Ming noted that the owner of the container had declared the goods as requiring dry, cold storage, with no need for electrical power, according to a translated statement from the company.

Despite the explosion, the incident did not seem to cause significant disruptions to major shipping lines.

Ningbo-Zhoushan, situated in Zhejiang province, is China’s second-busiest port. It follows Shanghai, the world’s largest port, and Singapore, according to Lloyd’s List.

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US Container Shipping Braces for Headwinds as Peak Season Approaches 

The US container shipping sector is cautiously approaching the peak season, with the upcoming US elections and labor negotiations poised to bring their own set of implications for the container logistics industry, as indicated in the August Container Market Forecaster by Container xChange.

Read also: Top 25 Container Ports In The United States

The sector has already been witnessing its own set of challenges like overestimation of demand, pulling forward of orders which caused inflationary trends in the freight and container rates and resultantly, the wait and watch strategy by container sellers and container buyers.

The election year brings an element of uncertainty, as many US container traders are concerned about potential changes in trade and regulatory policies, as well as economic policies that could impact consumer sentiment and their spending patterns.

“While our customers anticipate these headwinds impacting their business, they also remain hopeful that business activity will pick up in September as companies prepare for the holiday season.” shared Angelo Marino, Americas Account manager, Container xChange.

“The upcoming labor negotiations on the US East Coast in Q3 add another layer of potential volatility. Retailers have been preparing for the peak season since early 2024, aiming to avoid stock shortages, and now that we’re entering this busy period, the focus will be on understanding the true demand dynamics. The anticipation of these events is critical for navigating the complexities of the market in the coming crucial months.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange.

“The hot container leasing market isn’t solely due to the Suez Canal issue; it also ties into expectations surrounding potential changes in US administration and international trade policies. Additionally, retailers are anticipating the peak season and aiming to ensure their stock is secured well before November to avoid any kind of disruptions. While we expect container imports in Europe and the US, along with Asian exports, to remain strong as we approach the peak season, this momentum is likely to cool off by the end of the year. This is because the current stock recovery from retailers will have been largely completed. There is a possibility that the market could stay hot a little longer if retailers decide to stock up ahead of the Chinese New Year, but we don’t anticipate that the current market conditions, influenced in part by the Suez Canal crisis, will persist indefinitely into the future,” shared Andrea Monti, Managing Director and CEO of Sogese SRL, a trading and leasing company based in Italy and a customer of Container xChange.

“Our customers in the US are facing challenges with inventory liquidation due to mismatched expectations between container buyers and container sellers. In this context, it may not be a prosperous time for container traders, the logistics market, or retailers who have stockpiled inventories to avoid delays in the peak season.” added Roeloffs.

Container Price Sentiment Survey Results

A survey of around 1,000 US-based container traders reveals that 78% expect container prices to continue rising in the coming weeks, driven by election uncertainty and potential labor strikes. Only 14% foresee a decline, while 8% expect prices to remain stable. This indicates a broad expectation of continued volatility in the US container trading environment.

However, the global Container Price Sentiment Index (xCPSI) by Container xChange dropped from 63 to 39 points in July, suggesting waning sentiment towards rising container prices in the near term.

Roeloffs added, “The overestimation of strong consumer demand has resulted in overstocked retail inventories. We’ve observed for some time now that actual consumer demand hasn’t experienced a significant spike, thereby allowing retailers and importers ample time to restock before their next cycle. This situation could challenge the container shipping industry, as the recent spike in freight rates and container prices may not be sustainable further in the rest of the year. It’s only a matter of time before we see a downward trend in container and freight rates.”

Market Outlook

“As we approach the peak season of 2024, we’re observing a couple of pivotal shifts expected to impact the container shipping industry. First, there’s a gradual correction in supply and demand on the cards that should stabilize rates in the latter half of the year, owing to a lack of solid demand surge. On a longer term, the more profound change is the ongoing trend toward regionalization and smaller trade networks, which became mainstream in 2021. This shift has gained even more importance today, especially as geopolitical conflicts become a regular consideration in risk resilience strategies. Intra-Asia trade boom is a significant factor that indicates that smaller, more complex trade networks are developing and flourishing.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, the online container trading and leasing marketplace, based in Hamburg, Germany.

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Large International Exhibitor Contingent Showcased Some Interesting New Products at New York Fancy Food Show, Discussed Red Sea Turmoil

Though the array of food products, including many new culinary creations, showcased at the recent Fancy Food Show in New York was appealing, the large turnout of exhibitors and visitors, particularly from countries in Asia, also discussed in private conversations the effects of the Red Sea turmoil on exports resulting from higher freight costs and longer delivery times.

Read also: Navigating the Long-Term Consequences of the Red Sea Crisis for Retailers  

There were over 2,300 exhibitors from 56 countries spread across 29 international pavilions representing Africa, Europe, North America, South America, and the Oceana region.  Spain was this year’s “partner country”, but there were also very large exhibitor contingents from Italy, Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco, etc.   

The Specialty Food Association (SFA) which organizes the food show, is keen to enhance international participation so that” foreign buyers can establish business with U.S. importers and also U.S, companies can interact with foreign buyers at the show”, according to SFA spokesperson.

Dakir Berrada, the founer/owner of Noor Fes, an olive oil-production company in Fes, Morocco, told the Global Trade that this facility produces organic premium extra virgin olive oil, using fine Moroccan picholine olives grown on the company-owned farm. 

“Our picholine olive oil varieties have won awards at international olive oil competitions.  We have been exporting to Belgium, Scandinavia, etc. but in the U.S. our products are being launched at the Wholefoods with its wide network of some 400 stores in the U.S.,” he said.  “Our organic extra virgin olive oil was one of the five best olive oils chosen at the New York Fancy Food Show in 2023.  Indeed, we like to call our product olive juice rather than olive oil.  Our U.S. office is located in Delaware.”

Trying to explain the sharp rise in olive oil prices, Berrada said: “… prices of other edible oils have risen higher.  Extreme temperatures have affected olive crops in the past two years. But consumers do understand …” he said, adding that there are two kinds of olive oil found in the U.S. market, one being the generic kind, a blending which is of average quality, while the other one is of a higher quality and commanding a higher price.  “Our product is of higher quality … it is FDA certified and is organic.  Since we have an economy of scale, our prices are competitive. Thanks to our U.S. distribution office, the buyer can get shipment almost immediately.  The Red Sea turmoil does not affect our shipments since we ship directly from Casablanca in Morocco to our customers in Europe and North America. The value of our exports is about US$ 15 million to 20 million,” he said.

Turkey’s large exhibitor contingent showcased various products, including olive oil.  Fatih Avan, Assistant General Manager of Verde Yag Besin, an Izmir-based olive-oil company which has been participating at the NYFFS since 2000, observed:  “North America is an important region for international olive-oil producers. This year we hope to increase our global exports to US$  200 million, up from last year’s US$ 120 million  … we export to 55 countries, including the U.S.,” 

But Bekir Sari, Verde’s export sales and marketing director, noted that shipment time to the Far East had doubled – from 35 to 75 days, requiring vessels to sail round the Cape of Good Hope. Freight costs have doubled, in some case, even tripled.  The U.S. market is the fastest growing market for olive oil.  His company is considering setting up a plant in the U.S. because “North America is overall a promising region inherent with growth potential.  Being an important part of a healthy diet, olive oil’s nutritional properties appeal to the increasingly health-conscious  American consumer,” Sari said.

But one novel food item – chocolates made of camel milk – could become visible on the shelves of all U.S. mainstream supermarkets and specialized stores, as some pundits are predicting.  Al Nassma Chocolate LLC, based in Dubai, has been trying to penetrate the world markets, highlighting camel milk as rich in nutrients. 

Al Nassma, which showcased its range of camel-milk chocolates at the NYFFS, is a joint venture between the Dubai Government and Austrians and Germans, said that camel-milk chocolates are known around the world. In an interview with Global Trade, the company’s general manager Martin van Almsick said that camel’s milk is already available in supermarkets in the same way as cow’s milk is.  

“Camel’s milk is low in fact but high in minerals … Al Nassma produces about 100 tons of chocolates a year … since 2009 we’ve been exporting to Japan, Europe, etc. We see considerable interest on the part of buyers, retailers, importers, etc.  We import cocoa beans from Togo and other African countries. Dates are already in big demand in the U.S. and acquire added nutritional value in camel-milk chocolate,” van Almsick explained. 

There are camel dairy colonies in the Middle East, including Camelicious in Dubai and the Al Ain Farms in the Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital.  

Southeast Asian exhibitors also showcased a variety of products, including coffee, candy, organic sugar, ginger candy, etc.  Indonesia’s trade attache in Washington DC, Ranitya (Adis) Kusuma Dewi, told Global Trade that Indonesia’s food exports to the U.S. amounted to $ 5 billion of the total exports of $ 28 billion last year, with food exports up 20% over 2022.  “Our coffee is of many varieties, depending on where it is grown … we have received some good business responses,” she said. 

Datuk Aria Putera Ismail, the CEO/Group President of Malaysia-based SME Bank Group, a state-owned bank promoting the SME sector, with funding from the Ministry of Entrepreneur and Cooperative Development, explained:  “We provide SMEs training and financial services … the funding is used to explore new markets … our 11 SME exhibitors at the show produce snacks, beverages, spices, etc.  The exhibitors have received business enquiries at the show,” he said. 

But he said that some of the prices of products exported had risen sharply, also because of longer shipping schedules.  

The products of Julie’s Mfg. Sdn. Bhd., a leading Malaysian biscuit company, which was independently participating at the show, are already marketed in many Asian ethnic supermarkets, but as Martin Aang, director, said he was trying to market under Julie’s brand in the mainstream supermarkets, many of which sell his products under U.S. brand names. “We had a good last year but freight costs rose sharply due to longer shipping routes,” he said. Julie’s, with $ 100 million turnover, exports to over 90 countries.