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The American Metal Can Market Languishes Against the Pandemic and Competition from Plastic Containers

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The American Metal Can Market Languishes Against the Pandemic and Competition from Plastic Containers

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Metal Can Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the U.S. metal can market decreased by -2.2% to $12.6B, falling for the fifth consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a slight reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 1.6% y-o-y. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $14.1B. From 2015 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The market remains almost entirely supplied by domestic manufacturers. Despite its rapid growth over the last two years, the share of imports in terms of total consumption remains negligibly small, amounting to near 3%. The market, therefore, is not really an attractive destination for suppliers from abroad. In value terms, metal can production declined slightly to $12.4B in 2019 (IndexBox estimates). Over the period under review, production saw a perceptible reduction.

The long-term contraction from 2015-2019 is largely shaped by a sharp drop in oil prices in 2015. It caused a simultaneous decline in global prices for many commodities, including metals, leading to a decrease in raw material cost for the production of metal cans. Moreover, prices for polymer materials also dropped, making the competitive plastic packaging more affordable.

Metal cans are mainly used as packaging for food and drink items, as well as for laundry goods, personal care goods, and chemicals, incl. solvents for paints, automotive chemistry, etc. Accordingly, the market is affected, on the one hand, by an increase in the population and its income, and on the other hand, the general dynamics of the economy and industrial production.

In early 2020, the global economy entered a period of crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, due to which most countries in the world put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and an unprecedented decline in oil prices. Since production in many countries to some extent stops for several months, international transport was almost completely discontinued and domestic travel was minimized, oil demand fell sharply, which led to lower prices and heavy oil production cuts taking place.

This drop in oil prices in 2020 is to make the competition with cheaper plastic containers more severe. The U.S. is expected to face a short-term recession, with the contraction of GDP of approx. -3.6% in 2020, as the hit of the pandemic was hard and unemployment soared due to the shutdown and social isolation. This, in turn, is to affect the demand for metal cans across all the major downstream industries.

Even more noticeable decrease can occur in the segment of chemical and construction containers, containers for fuel and lubricants. As the demand for trips fell sharply, the need for vehicle maintenance also contracted, which in turn reduces the demand for containers for related products. In the construction sector, there may also be a moment of uncertainty due to reduced income for potential home buyers – this, in turn, may also lead to a decrease in the consumption of metal cans for construction-related products.

In the medium term, should the pandemic outbreak end, and the economy start recovering in 2021, the market trend is to stabilize, driven by the fundamentals that existed before 2020.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2019, overseas shipments of metal can increased by 35% to 1.4B units, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a deep contraction. Exports peaked at 3.7B units in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, metal can exports expanded rapidly to $281M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

Canada (916M units) was the main destination for metal can exports from the U.S., with a 64% share of total exports. Moreover, metal can exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (250M units), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Trinidad and Tobago (61M units), with a 4.3% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada totaled -12.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of export growth: Mexico (+13.0% per year) and Trinidad and Tobago (-1.3% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($197M) remains the key foreign market for metal can exports from the U.S., comprising 70% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Mexico ($38M), with a 14% share of total exports. It was followed by Jamaica, with a 2.2% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Canada totaled -8.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (+12.9% per year) and Jamaica (+7.9% per year).

Companies Mentioned in the Report

Ball Corporation, Crown Holdings Inc., Silgan Containers, BWAY Corporation, Silgan Holdings, Independent Can Company, Exal Corporation, Conco, Can Corporation of America, Ds Containers, Silgan White Cap Corporation, CCL Container Corporation, Ball Metal Food Container Corp., Justrite Manufacturing Company, Rexam Beverage Can Company, Silgan Containers Manufacturing Corporation, Bway Holding Company, Metal Container Corporation, Silgan Containers Corporation, Crown Cork & Seal Usa, Reynolds Metals Company, PSC Industries, Foulkrod Associates, Brockway Standard (new Jersey), Ball Aerosol and Specialty Container Inc., Crown Beverage Packaging, Ball Metal Beverage Container Corp., Ball Packaging, Bway Parent Company, Bway Intermediate Company, Crown Cork & Seal Company

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Asia-Pacific
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The Vegetable Market in Asia-Pacific to Continue Robust Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Vegetable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

For the seventh consecutive year, the Asia-Pacific vegetable market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 2.9% to $785.6B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Consumption by Country

China (622M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of vegetable consumption, comprising approx. 68% of total volume. Moreover, vegetable consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (170M tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Viet Nam (18M tonnes), with a 2% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+2.0% per year) and Viet Nam (+4.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($536.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($92.9B). It was followed by Viet Nam.

In 2019, the highest levels of vegetable per capita consumption was registered in China (427 kg per person), followed by Viet Nam (187 kg per person), India (124 kg per person) and Bangladesh (95 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of vegetable was estimated at 216 kg per person.

Market Forecast to 2030

Vegetables constitute one of the world’s basic food items; their production and consumption are widespread almost everywhere in the world. Vegetables are consumed in both fresh and processed form, as ingredients, canned food, etc. The demand for vegetables, therefore, mainly depends on the population growth and its dietary requirements; it is also determined to a certain extent by local household income, as vegetables constitute a staple dietary component. However, as incomes rise from the average figure and above, vegetable consumption is likely to increase at a slower rate than the consumption of more expensive food items (e.g. meat).

Since vegetables constitute staple food items, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the demand should not lead to a sharp fall in consumption. Moreover, since most of the common vegetables are grown locally, the risk of the disruption of established supply chains including foreign growers, food handling and packaging intermediaries, as well as the distributor sector, due to asynchronous quarantine measures in different countries, will be less relevant. However, for imported vegetables, this could be a factor that hampers the market growth.

Over 2020-2021, accordingly, the market is set to grow slowly, driven by population growth and the demand for food. In the medium term, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend driven by increasing demand for vegetables. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,162M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, after four years of growth, there was a decline in supplies from abroad of vegetables, when their volume decreased by -0.5% to 7.5M tonnes. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 7.5M tonnes in 2018 and then dropped modestly in the following year. In value terms, vegetable imports shrank modestly to $4.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

Malaysia (1,270K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (856K tonnes), Japan (775K tonnes) and Indonesia (756K tonnes) represented roughly 49% of total imports of vegetables in 2019. Singapore (476K tonnes) held a 6.4% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Thailand (5.7%), Sri Lanka (5.4%) and Bangladesh (4.7%). Nepal (304K tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (269K tonnes), Pakistan (261K tonnes), South Korea (261K tonnes) and Afghanistan (208K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bangladesh, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vegetable importing markets in Asia-Pacific were Japan ($742M), Indonesia ($609M) and Malaysia ($584M), together accounting for 44% of total imports. These countries were followed by Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan (Chinese), South Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Nepal, which together accounted for a further 46%.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

wine market
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The European Wine Market Overcomes the Pandemic Year with a Stagnation

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Wine – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, after three years of growth, there was a decline in the EU wine market, when its value decreased by -2.8% to $35.3B. Overall, consumption saw a mild descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 3.8% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $38.9B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of wine consumption in 2019 were Spain (3.5M tonnes), Italy (3.4M tonnes) and France (3.3M tonnes), with a combined 61% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Italy, while wine consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine markets in the European Union were France ($9.5B), Italy ($6.2B) and the UK ($4B), with a combined 56% share of the total market (IndexBox estimates). These countries were followed by Germany, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece and Romania, which together accounted for a further 34%.

The countries with the highest levels of wine per capita consumption in 2019 were Spain (74 kg per person), Italy (57 kg per person) and Portugal (51 kg per person).

European wine markets are mature, with no significant growth in consumption. The quality of European wine is highly valued all over the world because the EU countries are the main exporters of wine in the world market. Italy, Spain and France together supply 80% of all wine exports to the EU, shipping both to other European countries and outside the EU.

Overall, the EU wine market was expected to grow at a moderate pace amid weak population growth and continued relatively high incomes, as well as increased tourism. However, in early 2020, the global economy entered a crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a notable transformation of markets in the EU, in particular the wine market. The pandemic  affects various market parameters: macroeconomic performance, sales channels, supply chains, consumer behavior, and prices.

Despite favorable weather conditions, the EU’s grape harvest remained below average in 2020 as producer associations and national governments limited production to mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on the wine market. Preliminary data shows that despite improving performance in the second half of 2020, overall a slight decline could be expected in terms of the annual wine production in the EU.

Inventory management problems and the state of traditional distribution channels represent a great uncertainty in the current market environment. According to available estimates, about 30% of the wine market in volume terms and 50% in value is accounted for by the HoReCa segment (hotels, restaurants, cafes), which were most affected by counter-pandemic measures. The situation was aggravated by the closure of borders, which led to an unprecedented reduction in tourism, the role of which in the GDP of the main wine-producing countries was quite large.

Significant volumes of wine are sold in specialized stores, which were also closed during the quarantine period. Although the growth in wine consumption in the supermarket sector increased slightly, it did not compensate for the decline in other sales channels. Reduced demand for wine has worsened the position of distributors and importers in foreign countries, exacerbating the negative impact of the pandemic on the European wine industry.

With the easing of quarantine restrictions, the demand situation should have improved slightly, but in general, it is expected that a full recovery of export supplies and the work of the HoReCa sector in importing countries will take a long time. In addition, consumer incomes have declined in many countries due to the crisis, exacerbating price competition.

On the one hand, winemakers’ unions seek to reduce their wine production to save on storing unsold bottles, and on the other hand, wineries need a higher yield to cover their financial costs. Therefore, in 2020, there is an imbalance in the European market due to a decrease in wine sales and a high level of wine stocks, which additionally pushes prices down and thereby aggravates the financial problems of market players.

Against this backdrop, there is a serious threat that small family vineyards will go bankrupt, as they do not have the means to pay wages and other expenses, which could lead to their purchase by large international groups. To mitigate the negative effects of the crisis, the EU has taken temporary measures to deviate from certain competition rules, namely, industry operators are allowed to self-organize and implement market-based measures at their level to stabilize the sector and with regard to the functioning of the internal market for up to six months. For example, it is allowed to plan joint promotions, organize storage, and jointly plan production.

Given the above assumptions, the EU wine market is expected to stagnate or shrink slightly in 2020 compared to the previous year. Over the medium term, as the economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually at an expected CAGR of + 0.6% between 2019 and 2030, which is projected to increase the overall market size. to 14.8 billion liters (IndexBox estimates) by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

t-shirt
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The Pandemic Puts a Drag on the Global T-Shirt Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – T-Shirts – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global t-shirt market decreased by -3.5% to $88.5B for the first time since 2016, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 5.2% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $91.7B, and then declined slightly in the following year.

The countries with the highest volumes of t-shirt consumption in 2019 were China (4.4B units), the U.S. (2.9B units) and India (1.8B units), together comprising 36% of global consumption. Japan, Pakistan, Indonesia, the UK, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Germany, Mexico, Ethiopia and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22% (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, China ($12.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($6B). It was followed by India.

The countries with the highest levels of t-shirt per capita consumption in 2019 were the UK (9 units per person), the U.S. (9 units per person) and Germany (6 units per person).

T-shirts constitute one of the principal consumer goods from the category of apparel for daily use. Another impetus in the demand comes from sport and outdoor activity, from personal use to the equipment of professional teams. On the other hand, T-shirt consumption goes beyond just the essential need and depends on fashion trends and social life. Therefore, T-shirt consumption is to follow the growth of the global population and consumer incomes, which broadly depend on general economic development.

The growth drivers in T-shirt consumption vary widely in terms of region. In the U.S., for example, the fitness trend continues to impact T-shirt consumption: the need for athletic comfort becomes an important factor in the buying process. The current prevailing trend of using activewear and clothing as items of everyday attire is set to persist, and T-shirts that feature a blend of fashion and functionality will continue to perform well over the forecast period. Leading sportswear brands continue to launch and release new and appealing product ranges, aimed directly at consumers.

Consumer trend changes are also relevant for the EU T-shirt market: new variations and styles, as well as eco-fashion in different T-shirt categories, are being introduced. T-shirt consumption across Europe was expected to grow due to the rising fashion consciousness amongst consumers with regard to T-shirt products, and the increasing purchasing power of the young and teenage population.

The Asian T-shirt market was predicted to show strong growth: the number of consumers in the region is increasing every year. Lifestyle changes, combined with increased levels of disposable income and the current demand for trendy fashion items are all encouraging the rapid growth of Asia’s T-shirt market. Another major fundamental behind this growth is rapid urbanization accompanied by the rising popularity of Western lifestyles. Furthermore, due to their cheaper workforce, Asian countries remain key global centers of T-shirt production, thereby having T-shirts largely available.

Until 2020, the global economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to World Bank forecasts, despite the gradual relaxing of restrictive measures and unprecedented government support in countries that faced the pandemic in early 2020, the annual decline of global GDP could amount to -4.3%, which is the deepest global recession being seen over the past eight decades.

The consumer goods sector is vulnerable to the pandemic as due to quarantine measures, entire economic sectors and facilities were paused, and the drop in incomes makes the growth of end markets unfeasible, thereby hampering any expansion of consumer spending. Moreover, the pandemic led to a shutdown of the retail outlets and malls, which undermined the sales of apparel, T-shirts and other consumer goods outside of the most essential range.

Consequently, world manufacturing hubs in China and other Asian countries are facing a double challenge. Like other enterprises, T-shirt companies had to halt operations during the breakout of the pandemic. Afterward, when China started to ease the lockdown, the companies challenge the rising number of order cancellations from overseas clients which suffered their lockdown a month later and therefore are unable to sell or stockpile merchandise. This, in turn, may have led to the overstocking of the manufactures’ warehouses, which puts additional pressure on prices. Accordingly, when the growth of demand will resume, the recovery of production may be delayed until the stocks are sold, thereby putting a further drag on the post-pandemic market recovery.

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020, global consumption of T-shirts declined somewhat against 2019. In the medium term, as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually, driven by rising population, recovering incomes, and the replacement of outworn ones, together with the consumer intention to get something new after a period of limitations. Overall, market performance is forecast to pursue a slightly upward trend over the next decade, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% (IndexBox estimates) for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 29B units by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Electrical Transformers
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Global High-Power Electrical Transformer Market Hampered by Decreased Investment amid the Pandemic

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Electrical Transformers with Liquid Dielectric, of Power Handling Capacity over 10000 kVA – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

After two years of growth, the global market for electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA decreased by -18.6% to $14.5B in 2019.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption of electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA in 2019 were China (4.5K units), Pakistan (2.4K units) and the U.S. (2.2K units), together comprising 26% of global consumption (IndexBox estimates).

In value terms, China ($1.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($703M). It was followed by India.

Transformers and power distribution equipment tend to follow distributional and industrial electrical utility construction, the creation of new communities, and a replacement cycle. Therefore, the rising demand for transformers will also be shaped by both the residential construction sector and industrial production alike, which are conditioned by rising population and urbanization, particularly in Asia, capital investment, and the expansion of transport and telecom infrastructure; overall, those factors reflect the global GDP growth.

Until 2020, the global economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. The slowdown in global economic growth was caused by increased political uncertainty in the world and trade wars between the United States and China. According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the global economy was expected to pick up the growth momentum and increase from +2.5% to +2.7% per year in the medium term.

In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most countries in the world implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity.

The combination of those factors disrupts economic growth heavily throughout the world. According to World Bank forecasts, despite the gradual relaxing of restrictive measures and unprecedented government support in countries that faced the pandemic in early 2020, the annual decline of global GDP could amount to -4.3%, which is the deepest global recession being seen over the past eight decades.

In Asian countries, especially China, which faced the pandemic earlier than others, the epidemic situation improved earlier, with the quarantine measures largely relaxed, and the economy is gradually recovering from the forced outage. Thus, in China, by the end of 2020, an increase of 2.0% is expected (while a year earlier it was 6.1%), and in general in Southeast Asia in 2020, an increase of 0.9% is expected. In the medium term, it is assumed that the economy will gradually recover over several years as the restrictions are finally lifted.

The U.S., meanwhile, is struggling with a drastic short-term recession, with the expected contraction of GDP of approx. -3.6% in 2020, as the hit of the pandemic was harder than expected, and unemployment soared due to the shutdown and social isolation. The pandemic also led to a sharp drop in oil prices, because the demand for fuel dropped dramatically during the shutdown.

According to the European Commission, the EU economy is forecasted to drop by -7.4% in 2020 on the backdrop of the pandemic, hampered by the lockdown, a drop in consumer spending and decreased investment. Russia is also struggling with a sensitive short-term recession, with the expected contraction of GDP of approx. -4.0% in 2020. Current short-term indicators show that the plunge in the first half of 2020 was really deep, but a gradual recovery starts in the third quarter of 2020.

Both the construction and industrial sectors have proven vulnerable to the pandemic. Thus, the above economic prerequisites will have the most negative impact on the expansion of new residential and non-residential construction projects, thereby hampering the demand for electricity. Due to quarantine measures, construction projects were paused, and the drop in incomes of the population makes mortgage loans less affordable.

In addition, the reduced capital investment may lead to the postponement of plans for the building of new infrastructural and industrial facilities. The reduction of capital investments and the shortage in consumer spending also hamper the industrial sector, and metallurgy in particular, which is, on the one hand, an energy-intensive industry, and on the other hand, is also affected severely by the reduced demand for cars and other transport equipment.

Moreover, the disruption of established international supply chains between electric transformer producers and consumers due to asynchronous quarantine measures and restricted transport activity also hampers the market growth.

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020, global consumption of electrical transformers should decline slightly against 2019. In the medium term, as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually. Overall, market performance is forecast to pursue a slightly upward trend over the next decade, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 163M units by the end of 2030.

Global Imports

Global imports of electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA totaled 16K units in 2019, leveling off at the previous year’s figure. Global imports peaked at 18K units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, imports of electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA dropped to $3.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. I

Imports by Country

The U.S. (2.4K units) and Pakistan (2.4K units) represented roughly 30% of total imports of electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA in 2019. Saudi Arabia (862 units) occupied a 5.3% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Sweden (4.7%). Malaysia (597 units), the United Arab Emirates (428 units), Norway (411 units), India (395 units), China (346 units), Chile (323 units), Singapore (281 units), Greece (274 units) and Canada (259 units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Pakistan, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the U.S. ($773M) constitutes the largest market for imported electrical transformers with liquid dielectric, of power handling capacity over 10000 kVA worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Pakistan ($283M), with an 8.3% share of global imports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates, with a 3.2% share.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

cotton yarn
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Global Cotton Yarn Market Slipped Back Slightly to $77B

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Cotton Yarn – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

After two years of growth, the global cotton yarn market decreased by -2.8% to $77.2B in 2019. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the market value increased by 18% y-o-y. Global consumption peaked at $81B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cotton yarn consumption in 2019 were China (8.1M tonnes), India (4.3M tonnes), and Pakistan (3.2M tonnes), together comprising 74% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while cotton yarn consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($38.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($12.8B). It was followed by Pakistan.

The countries with the highest levels of cotton yarn per capita consumption in 2019 were Pakistan (16 kg per person), Turkey (16 kg per person) and South Korea (7.55 kg per person).

China remains the global leader in terms of cotton yarn production and consumption. The Chinese textile industry has experienced a rapid transformation over the last two decades. Thus, there was a boom in the synthetic yarn industry in China since the late 1990-s, while cotton yarn output remained relatively stable. This was driven by the strong development of the construction sector in China, particularly, infrastructure and urban construction, amid the strong growth of the economy and rapid urbanization. Rising construction required lots of non-woven synthetic fabrics used as geotextiles and as a component for the production of composite materials. Another impact comes from the increased availability of synthetic fibers due to the rising oil consumption, with the raw materials for fibers constituting a by-product of petroleum distillation.

Given those factors, the production of synthetic fiber apparel also grew. By contrast, cotton yarn output remained relatively stable because it is used only for human apparel, and it was pressured by the rising supply of synthetic fibers. This led to the fact that the share of cotton yarn in terms of the total yarn output in China contracted from near 50% in 2000 to near 22% in 2019. This, however, constitutes a tangible figure of 6.4M tonnes.

With this figure, China heads global cotton yarn production. Other countries with the highest volumes of cotton yarn production in 2019 include India (5.3M tonnes) and Pakistan (3.7M tonnes), with a combined 72% share of global production. Turkey, Viet Nam, the U.S. and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16% (IndexBox estimates).

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cotton yarn production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Viet Nam (+24.2%), while cotton yarn production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

In 2019, approx. 4.5M tonnes of cotton yarn were imported worldwide; which is down by -3.1% compared with the year before. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 8.6% year-to-year. As a result, imports attained a peak of 4.8M tonnes. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, cotton yarn imports dropped to $13.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

China was the key importer of cotton yarn in the world, with the volume of imports resulting at 2M tonnes, which was near 45% of total imports in 2019. Bangladesh (248K tonnes) held a 5.5% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Honduras (5.3%) and Turkey (4.7%). Russia (171K tonnes), South Korea (142K tonnes), Portugal (106K tonnes), the Dominican Republic (106K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (103K tonnes), Viet Nam (93K tonnes) and Egypt (92K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total imports.

China experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to the volume of imports of cotton yarn. At the same time, the Dominican Republic (+13.7%), Viet Nam (+13.1%), Turkey (+8.4%), Russia (+5.8%), Egypt (+4.0%), Bangladesh (+3.9%), Portugal (+2.0%) and Honduras (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Dominican Republic emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.7% from 2013-2019. By contrast, South Korea (-2.8%) and Hong Kong SAR (-20.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, China ($5.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported cotton yarn worldwide, comprising 41% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Bangladesh ($772M), with a 5.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Honduras, with a 5.4% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to -1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Bangladesh (-1.6% per year) and Honduras (+3.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average cotton yarn import price stood at $3,064 per tonne in 2019, with a decrease of -5.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 4.1% y-o-y. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $3,660 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($4,190 per tonne), while Russia ($1,901 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Honduras, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

fitness equipment
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The European Gym and Fitness Equipment Market Struggles against the Pandemic by Increasing Sales of Home Fitness Goods

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Gym and Fitness Equipment – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

After seven years of growth, the EU gym and fitness equipment market decreased by -0.5% to $3B in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

The largest gym and fitness equipment markets in the European Union were Germany ($561M), the UK ($468M) and France ($337M), together comprising 45% of the total market (IndexBox estimates). These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Poland, Austria, Sweden, Belgium, Finland, Denmark and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 46%.

In 2019, the highest levels of gym and fitness equipment per capita consumption were registered in the Netherlands (3.93 kg per person), followed by Austria (1.93 kg per person), Finland (1.89 kg per person) and Belgium (1.88 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of gym and fitness equipment was estimated at 1.21 kg per person.

Gym and fitness equipment features several main uses: private home use for personal training, fitness club equipment for commercial use, professional and amateur sports club equipment, and government and non-government agencies and organizations.

Accordingly, the key fundamental drivers of the demand are, on the one hand, the growth of the population and its income, as well as the trend towards the popularization of a healthy lifestyle. On the other hand, the overall economic growth in the EU and the growth of public and private investments also contribute to the growth in demand.

If these trends continue, the gradual growth of the gym and fitness equipment market could be expected to retain. In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most of the European countries implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity, which undermined economic growth heavily.

Large-scale quarantine measures constitute the key disruptive factor, due to which production dropped across almost every industry and entire economic sectors are closed, such as catering, non-food retail, and personal services. This leads to an increase in unemployment, a decrease in household incomes, and, consequently, changes in consumer spending.

However, the impact of the crisis on the gym and fitness equipment market in Europe is not unequivocally negative, unlike many other markets. On the one hand, quarantine measures and the fear of infection make it much more difficult to visit commercial fitness clubs, which are deprived of funds to pay rent and loans.

On the other hand, the quarantine and remote work regime is causing a sharp increase in demand for fitness equipment for private use. Not being able to visit fitness clubs, many people keep training at home and therefore buy more equipment online with delivery. This suggests that the fundamental prerequisites for the market’s return to growth persist even against the backdrop of the pandemic; however, the surge in the demand for home fitness equipment may turn to stagnation for a while when the pandemic wanes.

Based on these assumptions, a stagnation in market volumes is expected in 2020, but then the market is to begin to grow gradually. Should the pandemic wane, the market is expected to continue its upward trend due to the rising population (incl. immigrants) and stable demand for gym and fitness equipment. In the prospect of the upcoming decade, the performance of the market is forecast to continue moderate expansion, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to $3.3B (in fixed 2019 prices) by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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The Pandemic to Undermine the Growth of the American Metal Tank Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Metal Tank (Heavy Gauge) Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the U.S. metal tank market increased by 2.3% to $7.7B, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 5.2% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained a peak level of $9.6B. From 2015 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure, hampered by both an economic slowdown and lower metal prices which plummeted amid a sharp drop of global oil and commodity prices.

Metal tanks, as an element of engineering infrastructure, are widely used in various industries, particularly, in oil and gas extraction and processing, as well as in the chemical industry, and transport facilities. Therefore, the key factor determining the development of the market is the dynamics of the industrial sector, which, in a broader context, reflects the overall GDP growth. Another particular fundamental is the state of the global oil market which determines capital investment in the oil and gas sector.

According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the U.S. economy was expected to slow down to +1.7% per year in the medium term, hampered by increasing global uncertainty, trade war, and slower global growth. In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, due to which most countries in the world put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and an unprecedented decline in oil prices.

The U.S. is struggling with a drastic short-term recession, with the expected contraction of GDP of approx. -6.1% in 2020, as the hit of the pandemic was harder than expected, and unemployment soared due to the shutdown and social isolation.

The industrial sector has proven vulnerable to the pandemic as due to quarantine measures, industrial facilities were paused, and the drop in incomes of the population makes the growth of end markets unfeasible. The oil and gas sector also challenges a drastic drop in drilling activity and oil extraction which is due to much lower demand for oil amid the pandemic and the related dramatic drop in oil prices.

Tight financial conditions and uncertainty regarding the length of the pandemic and the possible bottom of the related economic drop, as well as high volatility of financial markets, and political tensions between the U.S. and China, disrupt capital investments in the immediate term, which is to put a drag on the metal tank market.

In the medium term, should the pandemic outbreak end in the second half of 2020, the economy is to start recovering in 2021 and then return to the gradual growth, driven by the fundamentals that existed before 2020.

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020, the consumption of metal tanks will drop by approx. 6%. In the medium term, as the economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to $8.2B (in fixed 2019 prices) by the end of 2030.

The U.S. Metal Tank Market Remains to a Large Extent Dependent on Imports

In value terms, metal tank production amounted to $7.7B in 2019. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a perceptible downturn. The U.S. metal tank market remains dependent on imports: over the period under review, the share of imports in terms of total metal tank consumption in the U.S. increased from 12% in 2007 to 17% in 2019 (based on value terms). It means that the U.S. metal tank market remains an attractive destination for foreign manufacturers.

Metal tank imports declined dramatically to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2013 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

In value terms, China ($492M) constituted the largest supplier of metal tanks to the U.S., comprising 37% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($181M), with a 14% share of total imports. It was followed by Mexico, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from China stood at +9.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Canada (+0.2% per year) and Mexico (+9.8% per year).

Companies Mentioned in the Report

Enerfab, Inc., Paul Mueller Company, Caldwell Tanks, Inc., Modern Welding Company, Inc., Flexcon Industries, Inc., Imperial Industries, Inc., Walker Engineered Products, Taylor-Wharton International LLC, CST Industries, Inc., Permian Tank & Manufacturing, Nooter Construction, Inc., Polar Tank Trailer, Mid-State Tank Co., Fort Worth F and D Head Company, James Machine Works LLC, Rocky Mountain Fabrication, Phoenix Fabricators & Erectors, HMT LLC (Pasadena Tank Corporation), Washington Metal Fabricators (WMF), Truenorth Steel,  Arrow Tank and Engineering Co, Helgesen Industries, Mississippi Tank and Manufacturing Company, Alonso & Carus Iron Works, Cimarron Energy, Tankcraft Corporation, Highland Tank & Manufacturing Company, Inc.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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The European Frozen Freshwater Fish Market Decreased Slightly to $0.7 Billion

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Frozen Whole Fresh Water Fish – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, after three years of growth, there was a decline in the EU frozen freshwater fish market, when its value decreased by -2.4% to $732M. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 4.8% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $750M in 2018 and then declined slightly in the following year.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of frozen freshwater fish consumption in 2019 were Germany (49K tonnes), the UK (40K tonnes), and Spain (23K tonnes), together accounting for 48% of total consumption (IndexBox estimates). France, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of frozen freshwater fish consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Poland, while frozen freshwater fish consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($146M), Germany ($122M), and Spain ($84M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, with a combined 48% share of the total market. These countries were followed by France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Romania, Poland, and Greece, which together accounted for a further 36%.

The countries with the highest levels of frozen freshwater fish per capita consumption in 2019 were Belgium (755 kg per 1000 persons), the Netherlands (672 kg per 1000 persons), and Portugal (615 kg per 1000 persons).

Production in the EU

In 2019, frozen freshwater fish production in the European Union contracted to 164K tonnes, reducing by -11.4% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. As a result, production reached a peak volume of 185K tonnes and then fell in the following year.

Production by Country

The country with the largest volume of frozen freshwater fish production was Germany (52K tonnes), comprising approx. 32% of the total volume. Moreover, frozen freshwater fish production in Germany exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Spain (23K tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by the UK (21K tonnes), with a 13% share.

In Germany, frozen freshwater fish production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Spain (-2.6% per year) and the UK (+1.3% per year).

Exports in the EU

In 2019, the amount of frozen whole freshwater fish exported in the European Union declined to 101K tonnes, reducing by -13.1% compared with the year before. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 8.1% y-o-y. Over the period under review, exports hit record highs at 117K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, frozen freshwater fish exports reduced to $291M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (25K tonnes) and Spain (24K tonnes) represented roughly 49% of the total exports of frozen whole freshwater fish in 2019. Portugal (15K tonnes) took a 15% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (8.6%), Belgium (6.5%), and Estonia (5.1%). Latvia (3K tonnes) and Poland (2.4K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Latvia, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen freshwater fish supplying countries in the European Union were the Netherlands ($89M), Spain ($65M), and Portugal ($48M), with a combined 69% share of total exports. Germany, Belgium, Estonia, Poland, and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

Latvia recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The frozen freshwater fish export price in the European Union stood at $2,893 per tonne in 2019, remaining constant against the previous year. Over the last six-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the export price increased by 17% y-o-y. As a result, export price attained the peak level of $2,916 per tonne, leveling off in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($3,578 per tonne), while Latvia ($916 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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The Expansion of Data Center Facilities and Telecom Drives the Global Wire And Cable Market While the Pandemic Hampers Construction and Industry

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Insulated Wire And Cable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global wire and cable market increased by 0.5% to $239.6B, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Insulated wire and cable consumption tend to follow distributional and industrial electrical utility construction, the creation of new communities, and a replacement cycle. Therefore, the rising demand for insulated wire and cable will also be shaped by both the residential construction sector and industrial production alike, which are conditioned by rising population and urbanization, particularly in Asia. Thus, the largest wire and cable markets worldwide were China ($53.2B), the U.S. ($27.4B) and Indonesia ($13.8B), together accounting for 39% of the global market (IndexBox estimates). These countries were followed by Japan, Mexico, India, Germany, Russia, France, South Korea, the UK, Turkey and Italy, which together accounted for a further 27%.

Capital investment and the expansion of transport and telecom infrastructure also constitute major factors behind the market growth; overall, those factors reflect the global GDP growth.

The telecommunications market uses a wide range of wire and cable products. With the active development of the electronic devices market, continuous improvement of the existing telecommunication infrastructure is required, including within the framework of modernization, which will contribute to the growth of the insulated wire and cable market.

The development of the 5G and other wireless networks, on the one hand, requires less data cable systems, but on the other hand, it needs more power supply cable systems for base stations. Moreover, the growth of demand for data centers amid the penetration of big data and machine learning to major business sectors shapes the demand for both data and power cable systems. Thus, insulated cables for a voltage under 80 V feature as the most imported category of cables in the world, with imports amounting to 4M tonnes in 2019, which equated to $26B.

Overall, imports of insulated wire and cable amounted to 9.6M tonnes in 2019. In value terms, wire and cable imports shrank to $112.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In value terms, the U.S. ($20.8B), Germany ($10.5B) and Japan ($7.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 34% of global imports. These countries were followed by China, Mexico, France, the UK, Hong Kong SAR, Spain, Canada, South Korea, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, which together accounted for a further 30%.

Until 2020, the global economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. The slowdown in global economic growth was caused by increased political uncertainty in the world and trade wars between the United States and China. According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the global economy was expected to pick up the growth momentum and increase from +2.5% to +2.7% per year in the medium term.

In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most countries in the world implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity.

The combination of those factors disrupts economic growth heavily throughout the world. According to World Bank forecasts, despite the gradual relaxing of restrictive measures and unprecedented government support in countries that faced the pandemic in early 2020, the annual decline of global GDP could amount to -5.2%, which is the deepest global recession being seen over the past eight decades.

Both the construction and industrial sectors have proven vulnerable to the pandemic. Thus, the above economic prerequisites will have the most negative impact on the expansion of new residential and non-residential construction projects, thereby hampering the demand for electricity and electrical networks.

Due to quarantine measures, construction projects were paused, and the drop in incomes of the population makes mortgage loans less affordable. In addition, the reduced capital investment may lead to the postponement of plans for the building of new infrastructural and industrial facilities.

Moreover, the disruption of established international supply chains between insulated wire and cable producers and consumers due to asynchronous quarantine measures and restricted transport activity also hampers the market growth.

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020, global consumption of insulated wire and cable should decline slightly against 2019. In the medium term, as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually. Overall, market performance is forecast to pursue a slightly upward trend over the next decade, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 24M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform