IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Oats – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the oat market in the U.S. amounted to $525M in 2018, increasing by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

In general, oat consumption, however, continues to indicate a temperate decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of 26% year-to-year. In that year, the oat market attained its peak level of $861M. From 2009 to 2018, the growth of the oat market failed to regain its momentum.

Production in the U.S.

In 2018, the production of oats in the U.S. amounted to 815K tonnes, jumping by 13% against the previous year. In general, oat production, however, continues to indicate a drastic deduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Oat production peaked at 1.3M tonnes in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. Oat output in the U.S. indicated a drastic setback, which was largely conditioned by a deep deduction of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, oat production amounted to $288M in 2018. In general, oat production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 when production volume increased by 88% against the previous year. Oat production peaked at $426M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum.

Harvested Area in the U.S.

Oat harvested area in the U.S. amounted to 350K ha in 2018, surging by 7.6% against the previous year. In general, the oat harvested area, however, continues to indicate an abrupt setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when harvested area increased by 23% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to oat production attained its maximum at 609K ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Yield in the U.S.

In 2018, the average yield of oats in the U.S. amounted to 2.3 tonne per ha, jumping by 5.2% against the previous year. Overall, the oat yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 when yield increased by 6.8% against the previous year. Oat yield peaked at 2.5 tonne per ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports from the U.S.

Oat exports from the U.S. stood at 28K tonnes in 2018, going down by -35.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, oat exports continue to indicate a slight deduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when exports increased by 65% year-to-year. In that year, oat exports reached their peak of 57K tonnes. From 2009 to 2018, the growth of oat exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, oat exports totaled $10M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, oat exports continue to indicate a temperate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of 81% against the previous year. Over the period under review, oat exports attained their peak figure at $16M in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports by Country

Canada (9.4K tonnes) was the main destination for oat exports from the U.S., accounting for a 33% share of total exports. Moreover, oat exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Japan (4.2K tonnes), twofold. Taiwan, Chinese (2.6K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 9% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume to Canada totaled -4.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Japan (+19.1% per year) and Taiwan, Chinese (+8.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for oat exported from the U.S. were Japan ($2.4M), Canada ($2M) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($1.3M), with a combined 58% share of total exports. Mexico, Taiwan, Chinese, Singapore, China, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago and the Dominican Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

China (+54.2% per year) experienced the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average oat export price stood at $354 per tonne in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 when the average export price increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for oats attained their peak figure at $384 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was China, Hong Kong SAR ($1,037 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Canada ($216 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, Hong Kong SAR, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, approx. 1.5M tonnes of oats were imported into the U.S.; growing by 12% against the previous year. Overall, oat imports, however, continue to indicate a temperate slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 26% against the previous year. Imports peaked at 1.9M tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, oat imports amounted to $329M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, oat imports, however, continue to indicate a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when imports increased by 45% against the previous year. In that year, oat imports attained their peak of $541M. From 2009 to 2018, the growth of oat imports failed to regain its momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Canada (1.5M tonnes) was the main oat supplier to the U.S., accounting for a 97% share of total imports. It was followed by Sweden (27K tonnes), with a 1.8% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Canada amounted to -2.1%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Sweden (+0.9% per year) and Finland (+6.0% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($320M) constituted the largest supplier of oat to the U.S., comprising 97% of total oat imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Sweden ($4.4M), with a 1.4% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value from Canada totaled -1.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Sweden (+2.7% per year) and Finland (+5.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average oat import price amounted to $219 per tonne, declining by -10.4% against the previous year. Overall, the oat import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when the average import price increased by 71% against the previous year. In that year, the average import prices for oats attained their peak level of $339 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for oats remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Canada ($220 per tonne), while the price for Sweden ($167 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform