IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Rye – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The U.S. rye market rose by 16% to reach  $362M in 2018. Over the last decade, rye consumption continues to indicate a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Rye consumption peaked at $364M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, consumption failed to regain its momentum.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rye in the U.S., the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 728K tonnes by the end of 2030.

U.S. Production

Rye production in the U.S. totaled 214K tonnes in 2018, going down by -17.8% against the previous year. Based on 2018 figures, rye production decreased by -26.7% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when production volume increased by 60% against the previous year. In that year, rye production attained its peak volume of 292K tonnes. From 2016 to 2018, rye production growth failed to regain its momentum.

Harvested Area and Yield

In 2018, the rye harvested area in the U.S. stood at 110K ha, lowering by -9% against the previous year. The average yield of rye totaled 1.9 tonne per ha, shrinking by -9.6% against the previous year. From 2007 to 2018, the yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period .

Exports from the U.S.

Rye exports from the U.S. amounted to 3.6K tonnes in 2018, lowering by -13% against the previous year.

In value terms, rye exports amounted to $3.6M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, rye exports reached their peak figure at $6.6M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

South Korea (583 tonnes), Japan (392 tonnes) and Canada (135 tonnes) were the main destinations of rye exports from the U.S., with a combined 31% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Japan, while exports for the other leaders experienced a decline.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average rye export price amounted to $993 per tonne, growing by 16% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($4,780 per tonne), while the average price for exports to the U.S. ($993 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Canada, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of rye imported into the U.S. amounted to 279K tonnes, jumping by 53% against the previous year. In value terms, rye imports stood at $68M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Canada (162K tonnes), Germany (85K tonnes) and Sweden (23K tonnes) were the main suppliers of rye imports to the U.S., together comprising 97% of total imports. These countries were followed by Denmark, which accounted for a further 2.7%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Denmark, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Canada ($43M) constituted the largest supplier of rye to the U.S., comprising 14% of total rye imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($18M), with a 5.8% share of total imports. It was followed by Sweden, with a 1.3% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value from Canada amounted to +12.4%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+3.2% per year) and Sweden (+14.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average rye import price amounted to $242 per tonne, shrinking by -2.5% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($317 per tonne), while the price for Sweden ($172 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform