DMCC’s latest feature, Defying Predictions and Driving Post Pandemic Economic Recovery, unravels global trade predictions for 2021 in a positive manner. The article explains the surprising resilience through the 2020 year despite challenged by the global pandemic.
The report highlighted two key global and regional takeaways, first, global trade will underpin strong global economic growth in 2021 with the US and Chinese economies leading the way. This growth has defied expectations of double-digit annual declines, which had been estimated between 13-32% by the World Trade Organization. Second, Dubai, a major trade hub, saw its foreign trade growth rebound significantly in 2020, despite the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The second half of 2020 seeing a particularly strong jump in volumes of 6% year-on-year. Dubai’s overall export values jumped 8% in 2020, on an annual basis.
Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, said, “In 2020, the outlook for global trade was bleak as the world sought to grapple with the impact of the pandemic. Today, the picture is much more positive, as evidenced by the findings of our latest Special Edition Future of Trade – 2021 report. But while global trade has shown its resilience, it is simultaneously in the midst of profound change. Technology, changing consumer behaviors, the drive to combat climate change, and geopolitics will all be key contributors to its reshaping in the years ahead. In this context, our research puts forward several tangible recommendations to governments and businesses seeking to navigate this new landscape and accelerate the recovery from the pandemic.”
According to the research, the most transformative element of the global trade outlook is technology. Blockchain, decentralized finance, DeFi, and other new and disruptive technologies will further accelerate growth. For example, DeFi protocols have seen a considerable amount of funds invested. Since the start of 2021 alone, the total value locked into DeFi has tripled from approximately USD 20bn to USD 60bn. As digital infrastructures grow, they will continue to accelerate a ground-breaking shift in trade from the national to the global.
Commenting on the release of the Special Edition report, Feryal Ahmadi, Chief Operating Officer, DMCC, said, “Following a challenging and uncertain period, the evidence presented in our Future of Trade report suggests an optimistic outlook. Global trade has defied all expectations and will underpin global economic growth. While geopolitics will continue to present challenges and impact the global trading system, the adoption of technology will continue to shape the future of trade. An important development over the last twelve months has also been the pivot of governments, companies, and investors towards sustainable practices in international trade – now high on the agenda. What the report ultimately reiterates, in line with our previous findings, is that international coordination and collaboration, and technology remain the key enablers and drivers of the recovery.”