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AIR PLAN MODE: REACT, ADAPT AND COLLABORATE TO MOVE FREIGHT BY PLANE

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Air Cargo, Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily

AIR PLAN MODE: REACT, ADAPT AND COLLABORATE TO MOVE FREIGHT BY PLANE

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When we think of the “future” in terms of the global supply chain, advanced technology and new forms of disruption are usually among the things international shippers are most concerned about. With 2021 at its end, the “future” is right around the corner. Meaning, what supply chain players do now (and what has been done thus far) will inevitably impact 2022 and beyond, and the more one understands this market’s evolving patterns, the more successful they will be in managing what is to come. 

Throughout the past year, the air freight market has seen various shifts, particularly with global capacity constraints, remnants from pandemic-driven disruptions, and an overall increase in demand. To fully understand the future of air freight, we must look at the big picture. To do this, BDP International’s VP of Global Airfreight, Patrick Olyhoeck, shares what global shippers can do to navigate 2022. 

The first shift is perspective. 

“Industry players can be more proactive by learning to fully understand industry challenges from a customer’s perspective to help them collaboratively overcome challenges,” Olyhoeck says. “The industry is impacted by factors including COVID-19 recoveries… and fundamentally, proactivity can only come from understanding key market challenges, thinking forward and engaging across stakeholders to find future solutions.”

He shares the following shifts are among the most significant currently being felt across the market:

-Impacts on capacity due to lower passenger numbers

-Impacts from the re-balancing of trade relations

-Impacts from the knock-on effect of capacity needs from ocean to air 

-National level challenges including HGV drivers in the UK impacting final the distribution of air cargo

Despite these shifts, in addition to the ones not yet seen or felt by the market, it is quite clear that some challenges are here to stay–pandemic or no pandemic.

“The basics of the market did not change,” Olyhoeck says. “Compare it with a soccer game, two decades ago. The speed of today’s game is enormous with real athletes on the pitch but still, you need to score to win the game–this is equal to our industry. Although regulations and customer needs are changing, we still move air cargo from A to B. The nature of air cargo remains focused on speed and safety to justify the choice.”

In addition to the evergreen nature of regulations and customer needs, Olyhoeck stated that global capacity constraints are expected to be felt for at least another season, and the key to managing this can be found in verticalization strategies. Limiting transport methods not only hurts your business but can be felt by your customer base as well. Maintaining reliable, transparent customer relationships is more critical now than ever before to remain competitive.

“Verticalization is the way to move forward where expertise and experience meet,” Olyhoeck says. “Digitalization will play a significant role. It is necessary to control your capacity to meet your customer expectations throughout the supply chain and therefore not limited to the airport-to-airport move only. From a company view, we need to stay resilient, embrace technology and keep pace with innovations in close relations with our customers.”

Streamlining information with the help of technology is a considerable factor that separates the good from the great. We live in a world where having the latest technology no longer cuts it. A shipper’s competitive advantage is not found in the kind of technology used for customer needs but more of what data is provided through technology to better understand, predict and manage customer needs. 

“We need not only to embrace technology but also accelerate the exchange of data as the impact is significant,” Olyhoeck adds. “Currently, too many stakeholders operate different systems with diverse needs. The use of digital pricing and booking platforms will help to increase efficiency and improve turnaround time, and it does get the attention from the shipper playing field to serve them with their best interest in mind.”

Collaboration is key and gathering the right data will further streamline processes to success. BDP manages its customer needs through the utilization of technology platforms that provide relevant, timely, and critical information. Combining the best of both technical capabilities and data, customers can rely on this approach to share the information needed to overcome market shifts. 

“BDP technology forms a fundamental part of how we manage complex, high care, dynamic supply-chains through both normal and abnormal market conditions,” Olyhoeck says. “We invest in platforms to provide insight into data integration and aggregation, platforms which support communication and exception management, and platforms that automate and simplify processes to help manage complexity and streamline our communications with customers. Our customers and partners are kept informed every step of the way in critical journeys.”

Even more significant is the need for more attention to budgeting and forecasting in the air cargo sector. According to Statista, 2021 will end with an expected 63.1 million tons of freight carried globally.

“Unfortunately, forecasting is underexposed,” Olyhoeck shares. “As in various industries, the budget and forecast for shipping pure air cargo is zero, but shippers still end up shipping millions of kilograms by air each year.” 

So, is there such a thing as a formula shippers can rely on for the future of the industry? Simply put, yes. But without key components of communication, technology and data, customer relationships and operations are projected for complications. 

“Energized teams supported by the latest technologies plugged in and managing global networks is not new to the industry,” Olyhoeck notes. “The chaos brought on from the pandemic, within the ocean markets impacting air, shows that having teams that can react, adapt, collaborate and solve using insight and intellect many times outstrips the technical component of competition.”

Simply put, modern market relationships and collaborations cannot be compromised. As Bob Hooey once said, “If you are not taking care of your customers, your competitor will.”

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Patrick Olyhoeck has more than 20 years of experience in the logistics sector. Having joined BDP in 2009, he filled local and regional positions before recently being promoted to vice president, Global Airfreight. In this role, he is responsible for one of the strategic key contacts for the international airline industry and the evolvement of offering premium global supply chain transportation service to a wide range of valued customers through the designed Global Consolidation Model. He can be reached at patrick.olyhoeck@bdpint.com.

trade
Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade, News

DMCC Reports on the Future of Trade as Global Trade Defies Expectations in 2021

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DMCC’s latest feature, Defying Predictions and Driving Post Pandemic Economic Recovery, unravels global trade predictions for 2021 in a positive manner. The article explains the surprising resilience through the 2020 year despite challenged by the global pandemic.

The report highlighted two key global and regional takeaways, first, global trade will underpin strong global economic growth in 2021 with the US and Chinese economies leading the way. This growth has defied expectations of double-digit annual declines, which had been estimated between 13-32% by the World Trade Organization. Second, Dubai, a major trade hub, saw its foreign trade growth rebound significantly in 2020, despite the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The second half of 2020 seeing a particularly strong jump in volumes of 6% year-on-year. Dubai’s overall export values jumped 8% in 2020, on an annual basis.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, said, “In 2020, the outlook for global trade was bleak as the world sought to grapple with the impact of the pandemic. Today, the picture is much more positive, as evidenced by the findings of our latest Special Edition Future of Trade – 2021 report. But while global trade has shown its resilience, it is simultaneously in the midst of profound change. Technology, changing consumer behaviors, the drive to combat climate change, and geopolitics will all be key contributors to its reshaping in the years ahead. In this context, our research puts forward several tangible recommendations to governments and businesses seeking to navigate this new landscape and accelerate the recovery from the pandemic.”

According to the research, the most transformative element of the global trade outlook is technology. Blockchain, decentralized finance, DeFi, and other new and disruptive technologies will further accelerate growth. For example, DeFi protocols have seen a considerable amount of funds invested. Since the start of 2021 alone, the total value locked into DeFi has tripled from approximately USD 20bn to USD 60bn. As digital infrastructures grow, they will continue to accelerate a ground-breaking shift in trade from the national to the global.

Commenting on the release of the Special Edition report, Feryal Ahmadi, Chief Operating Officer, DMCC, said, “Following a challenging and uncertain period, the evidence presented in our Future of Trade report suggests an optimistic outlook. Global trade has defied all expectations and will underpin global economic growth. While geopolitics will continue to present challenges and impact the global trading system, the adoption of technology will continue to shape the future of trade. An important development over the last twelve months has also been the pivot of governments, companies, and investors towards sustainable practices in international trade – now high on the agenda. What the report ultimately reiterates, in line with our previous findings, is that international coordination and collaboration, and technology remain the key enablers and drivers of the recovery.”

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Location Analytics Market: Top Key Trends that will Boost the Industry Growth through 2026

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The global location analytics market size is poised to expand at substantial CAGR during the forecast period. Location analytics uses advanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence, Natural Language Processing (NLP), and Machine Learning (ML). They are used to find out the location data of customers to provide customized solutions for all their personal and business needs.

Enterprises across the world are increasing their focus on collecting dynamic location data to identify the preferences and tastes of the customers. This piece of information is quite useful for them as it helps to create effective marketing strategies. It even helps in identifying patterns in customer behavior and purchases which eventually assists them in making more informed decisions in the future.

The invention of GPS and GIS technologies has taken the world by storm. These are some of the most sought-after technologies to track down any location, no matter how far it may be. Based on the data about the number of times the customer has visited a place and the frequency of taking the same route, marketing companies provide customized suggestions that help customers take informed and timely decisions.

Some of the trends that will positively impact global location analytics market growth are as follows:

Rising use of GPS and GIS technologies in Europe:

Europe’s location analytics market will reach a valuation of more than $7 billion by the year 2026, according to market experts. GPS and GIS technologies are some of the most sought-after and advanced technologies and have seen a period of boom in demand among young consumers in the region in the past decade.

The main reasons for this are that these technologies help in location tracking, transferring real-time information to businesses and monitoring and tracking consumer behavior and buying patterns. Industries across the region like banking, insurance and retail are not essentially location-based industries but do take location tracking into consideration while processing insurance claims during natural calamities. They make use of the precise geographic coordinates to find out the area of disaster and work accordingly.

Scope of location analytics services in Europe:

The location analytics services segment will showcase strong growth in the coming years, according to market reports. Governments in countries like Italy, Germany and the UK are increasingly using location analytics in various industries like defense, construction, transportation and retail. Location-based marketing is on the rise in these countries as customers nowadays prefer to get customized information to make more informed decisions while purchasing their products. The adoption of smartphones by the younger generation is adding to the demand for location analytics services in the region.

Europe BFSI segment will boost demand for location analytics:

Out of all the segments undergoing digital transformation, the BFSI segment will contribute significantly towards the rise in demand for location analytics solutions in Europe. The banking sector is increasingly adopting location intelligence technologies to help in carrying out various activities like increasing safety in monetary transactions, route analysis, record management of customers and ATM network management.

Outdoor positioning location analytics use in North America:

North America’s location analytics market is predicted to be worth $8 billion by the end of the forecast period.

The outdoor positioning segment will play a vital role in the overall advancement of the location analytics market in North America. Companies that operate at different locations have to use geographic analytics to get in-depth insights and make sound business decisions. Advanced analytics are being used by businesses to make plans for outdoor spaces. This kind of positioning even helps companies track objects and customers with the help of real-time locations.

Use of thematic mapping and spatial analysis in Canada:

Canada will play a vital role in encouraging the rise in demand for location analytics solutions in North America. The thematic mapping and spatial analysis segment in the Canadian market will experience substantial growth in the coming years as these tools are being increasingly used in the field of business intelligence.

With the help of thematic maps and spatial analytics, businesses can get a visual representation of their future action plans. In November 2020, the New Brunswick Department of Transportation and Infrastructure (NB DTI) was awarded for its creative use of GIS and location analytics to identify problems in road construction and having long-term plans for changing old culverts.

Google is another example of product innovation as its product, Google Maps, has an AR-enabled Street View mode that helps the user find real-time directions and custom recommendations as well.

Effective supply chain planning application in APAC:

Location analytics market size in Asia Pacific is reported to reach more than $8 billion by 2026. The supply chain planning and optimization segment will contribute significantly towards boosting location analytics services use in the future. There are several obstacles that supply chain organizations have to face while transporting raw materials or finished goods from one place to the other. With the use of location-based analytics, these problems can be effectively sorted out and delays in delivery can be greatly reduced.

For example, the Philippines National Economic and Development Authority, in May 2020, announced the launch of advanced location analytics solutions to identify the disruptions in supply chain management during the COVID-19 pandemic. This greatly helped the officials to manage their supply chain operations and work in a more efficient manner, with the help of real-time data and visibility.

Role of COVID pandemic in APAC location analytics market:

The COVID-19 pandemic greatly affected different businesses across the world with countries like India and China being adversely affected by the virus outbreak. This resulted in tremendous rise in smartphone usage across the region, leading to increased use of location analytics solutions. The Government of India has immensely benefited from the use of this as it has helped the officials in conducting effective contact tracing of people who have come in contact with COVID positive patients.

Some of the key organizations providing location analytics solutions and services across the globe are Cisco Systems Inc., Alteryx Inc., Esri Global Inc., HERE Global, Google LLC, IBM Corporation, SAP SE and many others.

innovation
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Special Reports

Remote Innovation Is More Than Possible: Six Tips From a Tech and Digital Revolutionary

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A few years ago, Centric Consulting team member Carmen Fontana launched her first Artificial Intelligence project. The goal? Craft machine learning to predict and manage human resources conundrums, such as project staffing. The initiative involved a new-to-Carmen technology, a dual-shore team and a healthy dose of ambiguity. We funded her anyway.

Carmen was participating in Centric’s newly minted innovation incubator which allows any employee to conceive and share product and process improvement ideas. Her idea was stellar, even if the roadmap was sketchy at best.

Carmen thought if companies like Netflix, Amazon and Spotify could observe, record and learn user behavior, allowing them to continually fine-tune their recommendation algorithms far beyond the scope of a traditional Boolean (and/or) statement, then HR could do the same with staffing.

Although much about this innovation journey may sound familiar — from the ambiguity of methods to the lofty (but vision-packed) goals — there’s one core element that most likely does not:

The entire project took place remotely. And we were even able to use it to guide our weekly staffing calls.

Since its inception 20 years ago, Centric has had a thriving “office-optional” workforce, which has grown from just a handful of people to more than 1,000 employees in 13 cities in the U.S. and India.

At a time when everyone is struggling to transition to remote work while innovating, we’ve won an award while doing just that. This year, we were included in Fast Company’s list of “100 Best Workplaces for Innovators.”

As we all hunker down in our separate home offices, physically apart, the stakes around innovation are only increasing. Innovation will remain a key differentiator in the market today and tomorrow. And there’s no turning back from the changes the pandemic has brought to the workplace.

Luckily, remote innovation is something that can be planned for, managed and grown, much like every other aspect of remote work. Below is our blueprint for keeping the creative wheels turning and amping up innovation when employees aren’t always working side-by-side:

Make Extemporaneous Encounters Intentional

The right collaboration tools can create the same sort of opportune encounters that Apple and Pixar champion while also facilitating remote collaboration. Microsoft Teams and Slack, for example, provide an online space for people to talk about new ideas and track progress on innovation projects.

While working on a recent Healthcare VR project, for instance we managed all of our interactions through a Microsoft Teams space — including meetings, brainstorming chats, project management and the collection of all of our teams’ output and materials.

Start a Problems-to-Be-Solved Repository

Nothing triggers innovation like having a problem you’re itching to solve. That’s where a remote repository of problems comes in handy. The more people contribute to the repository, the better: Innovation requires a lot of ideas coming in from a variety of people.

Although you do want to collect as many ideas as possible, you also want to provide some guidelines to make sure those ideas align in some way to larger company goals or to real client or industry challenges.  A repository can be a great tool for vetting which new ideas fit the bill.

A repository can also connect a firm’s natural innovators with employees who may not have an idea to offer but are strong problem-solvers and creative thinkers. Successful innovation efforts engage both types of people.

Hold Sessions Geared Towards Innovation-Generation

Whether in-person or remote, innovation-focused sessions for gathering and testing the latest thinking, ideas and problems are key. Employees usually leave these sessions energized and excited to be part of something new.

One recent example is Expedition: Data, an in-person event to encourage and develop machine learning and data science talent. Early this spring, Centric employees worked with Microsoft and RevLocal, a national digital marketing company, to come up with innovative ways to use Microsoft’s Azure Suite and other tools to improve RevLocal’s employee and customer retention. The winning team got bragging rights and $100 Amazon gift cards.

Institute A Virtual Innovation Lab

Too many organizations focus only on getting ideas, neglecting what comes next. If one of your employees has a concept they want to explore, do they know how to go about developing it?

Centric created its Virtual Innovation Lab to guide innovators as they explore their idea and see if it has legs. The lab acts as a collaboration portal and provides tools and resources for remote teams to work through the innovation lifecycle, helping them overcome major hurdles as they mature their concept and get it to the minimum viable product (MVP) stage.

Our virtual lab essentially provides a blueprint for rapid prototyping using agile development and human experience design principles, among other innovation frameworks. The goal is to help innovators quickly assess proof of concept and proof of value. This is important. If something works, that’s great, but is it feasible from an operational standpoint? Does it actually provide value to the end users or customers? Does it solve a real problem? If the answer is no to any of these questions, your innovator either needs to pivot or kill the project.

Be Deliberate About Forming Teams

Our virtual innovation process relies on agile development, which in its purest form requires teams to be together every day. So how do we get around that as a remote company? We’re very intentional about how we put teams together.

While self-forming teams can work and come together easily when you’re in an office setting, in a virtual environment, team formation needs to be more deliberate. To do this, get to know your internal network and who has what skills, capabilities and passions. Use that knowledge to build teams that will mesh well and play off one another’s strengths. The goal is to virtually replicate the relationships and collaborative spirit that happen effortlessly in an office.

Make Transparency Your Mission

As with any effort in your organization, communication plays a critical role. And in a virtual environment, it’s easy to forget to share information or see what your teammates are doing. That’s why we’ve made transparency a key focus for our virtual innovation lab.

Transparency is not only vital for networking and team building, but it’s also necessary for defining the success metrics that matter. Innovation isn’t easy — and intentionally prioritizing transparency forces learning and greater understanding. Perfection and polish are not required (at least not until the idea is commercialized). Drive the difficult conversations now, and always try to operate in the light.

Treat Failure As Additive, Not Subtractive

Many companies are failure-phobic, and in the interest of profits, many penalize employees and divisions for losing money. But innovation only succeeds through trial and error.

To innovate, you have to embrace failure and help your teams do the same. Give them the tools and the space to test new ideas or processes. Celebrate their efforts regardless of the outcome. Organize sessions – remote or in-person –  where they share stories about their failures. We have, and it has served us well.

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Warehousing

E-Commerce’s Newfound Role in Stabilizing and Expanding the U.S. Retail Sector

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Kenny Tsang, Managing Director of PingPong Payments, comments on the impact of the pandemic on the retail sector, and how global online marketplaces are providing a lifeline to businesses with thousands of new sellers.

In recent months, online marketplaces have taken a huge step forward to become the primary option for consumers with the pandemic forcing traditional retailers to digitally adapt to consumers. As these lockdown restrictions begin to ease, many businesses and retailers are increasingly finding value in utilizing digital marketplaces to support further disruption.

Worryingly, the existing retail space still lost a shocking 1.3 million jobs from February to June with data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in August[1] showing little signs of recovery for the retail industry. With retail being the primary outlet of the U.S. economy supporting one in four U.S. jobs [2] businesses utilizing the e-commerce sphere are experiencing significant growth by recording an 18 percent increase in online sales[3] this year.

Retail businesses that have been sustainable during the economic slowdown over the last few months are showing increased utilization of online marketplaces as alternatives to traditional retail services. Many who have explored, or been forced to adapt to digital avenues, are seeing the potential for temporary digital measures to become permanent as the U.S. continues to demonstrate a seismic shift in shopping habits. Online marketplaces such as Amazon, eBay and Rakuten are leading the way, with Amazon more than doubling its valuation so far in 2020 – gaining a staggering $570 billion in market capitalization. eBay has just reported a record eight million new active shoppers, resulting in year on year revenue shooting up 18 percent.

While these numbers may be considered unsustainable in the long term, the 565,000 new merchant signups Amazon has already reached this year suggests the significant growth of online marketplaces will continue to exceed expectations. Many forecasters are estimating the business growth of e-commerce will to continue to reach unprecedented levels in the U.S. – with 1.1 million new sellers expected to join Amazon by the end of 2020.

Accessibility has long been a question for merchants hesitant to embrace the digital market and step out of their comfort zones into new mediums. Online marketplaces that are experiencing the most growth such as Amazon and eBay are increasingly finding ways to engage buyers and sellers to leap into the digital sphere. Thousands of sellers are experiencing natural growth, and the demand for consumer confidence while shopping on digital platforms has never been higher. E-commerce platforms cannot emulate the shop floor, however, we are seeing community-based marketplaces driving international consumer merchants to offer a quality service that delivers high customer satisfaction on primarily review-based models.

Sellers should capitalize on the opportunity to adapt and strategize against the current situation while focusing on understanding how their customer buying patterns were changing, to adjust quickly to demand, PingPong Payments identified the most popular selling categories in the e-commerce space during the pandemic to be groceries, toys and games, educational material and home and garden, while swimwear, travel-related products and consumer electronics such as cameras were no longer in demand.

With more consumer-centric additions, comes more growth, and the need for personnel to respond to the demand has heightened. For many e-commerce sellers, this is unprecedented ground, and it highlights the need for e-commerce sellers to have the right systems in place to facilitate these changes. Traditionally, a bulk of merchants’ operating internationally would spend their time minimalizing cross-border payments in unknown markets that would often lead to unforeseen expenses, long shipping times, and unreliable products. E-commerce sellers partnering with the right cross-border payment companies that specialize in convenient, quick money transfers can take this hassle away while lowering costs with these systems in place.

As consumers return to retail spaces – sellers should continue to utilize the flexibility that e-marketplaces have provided for businesses over the last few months with organic innovation increasing through competition for buy share. From the supply chain to customer-centric models – digital marketplaces are providing a platform to rival in-person sales with a significant expansion focused on retaining customers.

Admittedly, there will be consumers who continue to use traditional methods of shopping, and that will remain an open market for retailers as lockdown restrictions ease. Merchants with better familiarisation of the e-commerce industry should be able to continue to put the right systems and partners in place to maintain a continuous flow of sales worldwide. With added expansion in the industry, economic recovery in the U.S. can help propel pre-existing successful retail foundations into the future.

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[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[2] https://nrf.com/retails-impact

[3] https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-ecommerce-will-rise-18-2020-amid-pandemic

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Warehousing

THE EVOLVING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DRONES, MOBILE ROBOTS, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND LOGISTICS

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Last mile delivery is the most expensive part of the delivery chain, often representing more than 50 percent of the overall cost. This is mainly because it is the least productive and automated step. As such, many are seeking to bring automation into the last mile. In recent years, many companies around the world have been innovating to utilize autonomous mobile robots, drones, and autonomous vehicle technology.

Various autonomous robots and vehicles (sometimes called pods) are being developed around the world. These come in a variety of shapes and forms, reflecting the diversity and breadth of design and technology choices which must be made to create such products.

Drone Delivery: a Game Changer in Instant Fulfilment?

My new IDTechEx report, “Mobile Robots, Autonomous Vehicles, and Drones in Logistics, Warehousing, and Delivery 2020-2040,” covers the use of mobile robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles in delivery, warehousing and logistics—and suggests these could create a $1 billion market by 2030. That shows how far we have come since a previous IDTechEx report, “Mobile Robots and Drones in Material Handling and Logistics 2017-2037,” which analyzed the technologies that were then emerging in the last mile delivery space, including drones and autonomous mobile ground robots (or droids).

Several players, big and small, have entered the drone delivery game since then, but at the time of the 2017 report, the idea of drone delivery was sharply dividing commentator opinion, with some dismissing it as a mere publicity stunt.

Indeed, drone delivery must be viewed within the context of the emerging drone industry, which has grown to a more than $1.5 billion industry. In the ensuing years, consumer drones’ hardware platform became rapidly commoditized with prices falling.

The idea of drone delivery entered the mainstream media in late 2013. Around that time, drone delivery of e-commerce parcels was first demonstrated in parallel with drones successfully delivering medicine to remote areas. Since then numerous deliveries have been made, partnerships announced, and substantial sums invested.

Fleet Operation to Compensate for Poor Individual Drone Productivity?

Drone delivery faced critical challenges in 2017. Individual drones offer limited productivity compared to traditional means of delivery (e.g., consider a van delivering 150 parcels in an eight-hour shift). They can only carry small payloads and battery technology limits their flight duration, constraining them to around 30 minutes radius of their base while further lowering their productivity due to the downtime needed for re-charging/re-loading.

The limited productivity, in our view, is not a showstopper. This is because fleet operation can compensate for poor individual drone productivity. The unit cost of drones will be substantially lower than, say, a van, enabling the conversation of a few, highly-productive vehicles into many small drones with high productivity at the fleet level. This will require a further major reduction in hardware costs for commercial drones, but if the past is to be our guide, this will be inevitable.

Limited payload is also not a showstopper because, according to Amazon statistics, some 85 percent of packages weigh 5 pounds or fewer. Furthermore, the fall in delivery costs and time for customers is changing purchasing habits: frequent orders of small items is replacing that big infrequent order. This matches well to the strong points of drones.

The limited range is also not a showstopper even in suburban areas where customers do not live close to a distribution point. It will, however, mandate a gradual yet wholesale change in the location of warehouses with more placed closer to end customers or the use of large mobile drone carrier vans. The former is already happening in the background, while the latter has also been demonstrated at the proof-of-concept level.

Sidewalk Last-Mile Delivery Robots: a Billion-Dollar-Market by 2030?

Sidewalk robots are often designed to travel slowly at 4-6 km/hr (or 2.5-3.7 mph). This is to increase safety, to give robots more thinking time, to give remote teleoperators the chance to intervene, and to enable categorizing the robot as a personal device (vs. a vehicle), thus easing the legislative challenges.

However,  sidewalk robots are still far from being totally autonomous. First, they are often deployed in environments such as U.S. university campuses where there is little sidewalk traffic and where the sidewalks are well-structured. Many robots are also restricted to daylight and perception-free conditions. Critically, the suppliers also have remote teleoperator centers. The ratio of operators to robots will need to be kept to an absolute minimum if such businesses are to succeed.

There is still much work to do to improve the navigation technology. The robots will need to learn to operate in more complex and varied environments with minimal intervention. Furthermore, capital is also essential. The end markets are also highly competitive, imposing tough price constraints.

In general, we forecast a 200,000-unit fleet size until 2035 (accounting for replacement). The inflection point will not occur until around the 2025 period given the readiness level of the technology. This suggests both a large robot sales market and an even larger annual delivery services market provided asset utilization can be high (the services income could reach $1.6 billion by 2035 in a reasonable scenario).

Sidewalk Delivery Robots vs. Autonomous Delivery Vans

These robots, pods and vehicles are mainly designed from scratch to be unmanned. They are also almost always battery-powered and electrically-driven. This is for various reasons, including: (1) electronic drive gives better control of motion, especially when each wheel can be independently controlled; (2) the interface between the electronic control system and the electrical drive train is simpler, eliminating the need for complex by-wire systems found in autonomous ICE vehicles; and (3) their production process needs to handle vastly fewer parts, and as such could be taken on by smaller manufacturers.

Another key technology and business choice is where to navigate. Many robots are designed to travel on sidewalks and pedestrian pavements, while the van-looking pods and vehicles are often designed to be road-going. This choice of where to travel has determining consequences for the design, technology choice, target markets and business model.

Sidewalk robots are an interesting proposition. They come with various hardware choices. For example, some are few-wheeled while many are six-wheeled. Some include a single small-payload compartment, while others carry larger multi-item storage compartments. The key choice, however, is in what perception sensors to use.

Navigation Technology Choices

Mobile robots come with various hardware choices, e.g., number of motor-controlled wheels, payload size and compartment design, battery size, etc. Almost all have HD cameras around the robot to give teleoperators the ability to intervene All also have IMUs and GPS and most have ultrasound sensors for near-field sensing.

A critical choice is whether to use lidar-only, stereo-vision-only, or hybrid. Lidar can give excellent 360deg ranging information with spatial resolution and a dense point cloud which enables good signal processing. Lidars, however, are expensive and can have near-field (a few cm) blindspot. Therefore, the choice to use lidars will represent a bet for the cost of lidar technology to dramatically fall.

Most robots deploying lidars use 16-channel RoboSense or Velodyne lidars. These are mechanical rotating lidars, giving surround viewing. The technology of lidars is evolving with the likes of MEMS or OPA emerging. These could enable cost reduction but will reduce FoV (field of view), thus mandating the use of more lidar units per robot.

We project that the cost of lidars is to significantly fall over the coming years. This has the potential to put such robots on the path towards business viability. The other challenge is near-field blindspots. This is not an issue with cars, but can be in a sidewalk, where many low-lying objects can reside closely to the robot. To resolve these, complementary sensors will be needed.

The other approach is to go lidar-free, using stereo camera as the main perception-for-navigation sensor. This will require the development of camera-based algorithms for localization, object detection, classification, semantic segmentation, and path planning.

No off-the-shelf software solution exists. Indeed, no labeled training dataset exists that would allow training lidar-based, camera-based or hybrid deep neutral networks (DNNs) for sidewalk navigation. The sidewalk environment is vastly different to that of the on-road vehicles. As such, companies will need to collect, calibrate, and meticulously label their own datasets. Furthermore, the datasets will require great diversity to accommodate different light, perception, and local conditions. Deployments in many sites even as pilot programs are essential in further improving the robots and can indeed represent a competitive advantage.

The robots are energy-constrained. As such, the number of on-board processors and GPUs should be kept to a minimum, and heavy-duty computational tasks such as 3D map-making and edge-extraction should be carried off-line in powerful services. This almost always happens when robots are deployed to a new environment: They are walked around to capture data, the data is sent to servers for processing so it can be converted into a suitable map, earmarking edges, many classes of fixed objects, drivable paths, and so on.

Long Road to Profitability Lies Ahead

In general, there is still much work to do to improve navigation technology. The robots will need to learn to operate in more complex and varied environments with minimal intervention. This requires extensive investment in software development. This ranges from gathering data, defining object classes, labeling the data, and training the DNNs in many environments and conditions. It also requires writing algorithms for the many challenges the robots encounter in their autonomous operation.

Furthermore, capital is also essential. The businesses are heavy on development costs, especially software costs. The end markets are also highly competitive, imposing tough price constraints. The hardware itself is likely to be commoditized and many will outsource manufacturing once they have settled on a suitable final design. The payback for many will be having a large fleet to offer robots as a delivery service.

Future Outlook: Significant Robot Sale and Delivery Services Opportunity

Sales and delivery firms are likely to have a long road ahead of them before they reach profitability. They should improve the robots to work in more scenarios beyond well-structured neighborhoods and campuses, to extend their operation to all-day and all-weather conditions, and to extend autonomous operation with little error to nearly all scenarios to drive down the remote operator-to-fleet size ratio.

The deployed fleet size will need to dramatically increase to expand income from delivery services and allow the amortization of the software development costs over many units sold.

We have analyzed all the key companies and technologies in this emerging field. We have also constructed a forecast model, considering how the productivity of last-mile mobile robots is likely to evolve over the years. We have developed various scenarios, assessing the current and future addressable market size in terms of total accumulated fleet size. Our fleet deployment forecasts and penetration rate forecasts are based upon on reasonable market and technology assessments and roadmaps.

Consequently, our forecasts suggest, that despite the upfront technology and market challenges, the market will grow and those who plant their seeds today will reap the benefits tomorrow.

_______________________________________________________________________

Dr. Khasha Ghaffarzadeh is the research director at IDTechEx, where he has helped deliver more than 50 consulting projects across the world. The projects have covered custom market research, technology scouting, partnership/customer development, technology road mapping, product positioning, competitive analysis and investment due diligence.

His report “Mobile Robots, Autonomous Vehicles, and Drones in Logistics, Warehousing, and Delivery 2020-2040” covers the use of mobile robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles in delivery, warehousing and logistics. It provides a comprehensive analysis of all the key players, technologies and markets, covering automated as well as autonomous carts and robots, automated goods-to-person robots, autonomous and collaborative robots, delivery robots, mobile picking robots, autonomous material handling vehicles such as tuggers and forklifts, autonomous trucks, vans, and last mile delivery robots and drones. You can find the report here: https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-report/mobile-robots-autonomous-vehicles-and-drones-in-logistics-warehousing-and-delivery-2020-2040/706.

You can find his report “Mobile Robots and Drones in Material Handling and Logistics 2017-2037” here: https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-article/drone-delivery-publicity-stunt-or-game-changer-in-instant-fulfilment/11658.

IDTechEx guides strategic business decisions through its Research, Consultancy and Event products, helping clients profit from emerging technologies. For more information on IDTechEx Research and Consultancy, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.

logistics
3pls, Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily

Logistics in the eCommerce-Era

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Plans of business expansions and holiday vacations have been shattered and ruined by the pandemic. Memories of Christmas dinner and going to the local store without precautions are engrained in our minds. The world’s behavior has shifted to adapt to the consequences of a pandemic.

Many people are experiencing losses in business, losing employment and many other effects. The global ecommerce has over 3.5 billion registered users in 2020, providing many companies to grow in a new business concept without the brick and mortar store, and additional office workers. Ecommerce business has allowed supporting businesses to grow, in particular, the logistics industry.

As one of the oldest and largest industries, logistics is predominantly owned and operated by the older generation who has operated businesses with the same routine and procedures. Many logistics companies are still practicing the traditional method of doing business, with back and forth communication to negotiate and coordinate detailed requirements. However, consumers in ecommerce era are now demanding faster decision-making and transparency. With the right technological solution to handle multiple procedures, many important tasks such as administration, operations coordination, financial background check and verification, etc. can now be handled by complex computation algorithms instead of humans.

Companies can reduce miscommunication, mishandling, minimize delinquent accounts and improve response of customer service levels by creating a logistics technology that can perform job functions, such as Customs Clearance Procedures, Sales-Marketing Cross Promotion, Driver Instruction, and Operation Procedures, Warehouse and Airline Operation Procedures, Invoice and payment reminder, and others. With one platform, all of these features to help companies consolidate all logistics functions in one place.

The logistics industry involves many various parties in running its operation such as Shipper, Domestic and International Transport, Consignee, Customs officers, Warehouse Personnel, Accounting and others. This is a full operation which needs to be administered and monitored in order to be executed properly. With the help of technology algorithm, multiple information will be able to be distributed and delivered to the right operator’s smartphone device and will speed up notifications, operations, and processes.

Another key feature is the Face/Vehicle identification processes, allowing convenience to Shippers and Transporters to better monitor pick-up and drop-offs of shipments. With integrated technology features, the logistics industry will see improved service levels and the benefits of transparent cost structures to each transaction.

The pandemic has accelerated the pace of logistics digital transformation. Many new changes are seen as a result of the world crisis, including an increase in ecommerce businesses, remote work, online mobile orders and deliveries, and other changes. In order to survive as a business that has shifted away from traditional concepts, it is important to minimize costs and make smart decisions.

For the logistics industry, most infrastructure job functions and operation administration tasks can be performed through a smart algorithm platform. With an all-in-one platform, information can be accessed on mobile devices or desktops and is available on all operating systems. Logistics in technology platforms will allow better communication, organization, transparency, and companies will benefit by being more cost-efficient, connected, and productive.

big tech brokers
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

NEW PAPER “EXPOSES” BIG TECH’S PLANS FOR NEW WTO RULES OVER DATA ACCESS AND CONTROL

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A paper released in July by educational publisher Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung of Brussels examines how “big tech” corporations work to use “trade” rules to allegedly rig the global digital economy to collect more data, exercise more control over people’s lives and over their workers, and amass ever more profit.

“Digital Trade Rules: A Disastrous New Constitution for the Global Economy, By and for Big Tech” was written by Deborah James of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. She claims companies such as Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft work to secure new accords at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that would allow them greater access to, and ownership of, data with minimal restrictions.

“These proposed rules are a grave threat to development, human rights, labor, and shared prosperity around the world,” says James, who is executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based center’s International Programs. “They are the very antithesis of the type of policies we need to rein in the cancerous and untrammeled growth of the power of Big Tech.”

She writes that, “When it was founded in 1995, new agreements within the WTO gave rights to the dominant industries at that time, such as agriculture, finance, services, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing. The technology industries lack such an agreement in the WTO and are seeking similar rules to these to liberalize the digitalization that is currently transforming the global economy, particularly the governance of today’s most valuable resource, which is data.”

Her report came as a group of 76 countries launched talks aimed at a digital trade agreement at the next WTO ministerial conference. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a WTO conference planned for June is Kazakhstan was postponed.

business tools
Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Software

5 Mistakes Businesses Make When Selecting Business Tools

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There are so many things that go into setting your business for success. One of them is ensuring you have the best business tools that offer longevity, consistency, resilience, scalability, and comprehensive real-time visibility throughout your operations. But with a plethora of different types of tools out there, finding the right ones for your business can be a challenge. Here are 5 common mistakes you should avoid to help you invest in the right tools and use them effectively.

1. Expecting Technology to Solve Process-related Issues

One of the biggest mistakes that companies make is expecting technology to resolve problems with their processes and procedures. Although technology can enhance your speed, efficiency, and profitability, it tends to augment the already available operational effectiveness. If your company is well organized and has error-free processes, technology can automate repetitive processes, save you time, and help you grow profits. If your company is disorganized and with messed up processes, technology will only intensify that incompetence.

Tip: When incorporating new tools to your business, look for those that help you optimize your existing processes or recommends better processes. If you don’t have error-free procedures and processes in place, start by developing them and ensuring your company is working on paper.

2. Not Considering Multiple Opinions

Another common mistake that many businesses make in the process of buying business tools is having an unclear idea of what’s required instead of precise requirements. It’s extremely easy to examine and invest in the best solution when you’ve a clear idea of what you expect from the system. Companies miss requirements
when they leave the selection process to only technical personnel or a small team of leaders. Depending on one individual or department’s viewpoints is extremely narrow, particularly if several departments will be using the new system every day.

Tip: Involve various stakeholders in the process of selecting your business tools even if it’s those for opening a zip file. Remember while working employees will need tools that enable them to open and compress large files. Assemble a team of staff that can champion the needs of their respective departments. Once you gather viewpoints from a variety of future users, you can now design a requirements document to guide you in the entire selection process. Apart from issues you’re aspiring to solve, a good requirements document should also include important features that new tool(s) should have.

3. Relying on Recommendations Only

While recommendations from friends can be really helpful when you’re looking for the best software solutions for your business, they can also be risky if not accompanied by thorough research. Your friends may be running a business related to yours, but they may be following different processes or using different features in the tool. When purchasing solely on recommendation, you run the risks of expecting a tool to perform functions that are beyond its capability.

Tip: The right tools should meet the unique needs and requirements of your business. So even as you seek recommendations from your peers, consider following them up with in-depth research.

4. Buying Without Trying

Most business tools come with some sort of free trial or free plan. So before making a purchase, run the tool in one or two locations and see how it’s working. This applies to even tools for opening a zip file. Remember trial mode is designed to help you assess performance (speed and dependability) and see how the application works.

Tip: During the trial mode, ask yourself, “Does this tool function and feel like a perfect fit for my business?” Your answer to this question will help you decide whether you’ll buy the application or you’ll go on with your search.

5. Failure to Invest in Future-proofed Solutions

Investing in tools to fix immediate problems is another mistake many businesses make. This shortsighted approach has left many businesses having to deal with expensive and lengthy upgrades, hectic re-implementations, and continued reliance on tools that
actually frustrates their expansion plans.

Pro Tip: Before investing in any software solution, think about the ways your business needs and requirements are likely to change in the future. Then, choose a solution that’s continuously expanding on current functionalities and incorporating new capabilities.

Final Thoughts

Businesses must ask the right questions, know the common pitfalls to avoid, and perform enough due diligence before investing in any business tools. They should invest in solutions that allow them not only to fix immediate problems but also their future challenges.

supply chain
Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Stories

Leveraging Digital Technology to Create a More Resilient Supply Chain

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The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the flow of goods across the globe, from raw materials to finished products. The pandemic has raised awareness of the importance of truck drivers, delivery drivers and warehouse workers who have kept products moving in this challenging environment. The economic ramifications have forced companies and industries to reevaluate their supply chains.

Additionally, the pandemic has vividly illustrated that today’s highly interlinked, international supply chains have more potential points of failure and less flexibility for absorbing delays and disruptions than business leaders may have realized.

To build more resilient and flexible supply chains, companies may consider several options, including bringing some critical activities closer to home, setting up backup suppliers to reduce exposure to any single supplier/country, or refining their inventory strategies. Of course, any such alteration will affect logistics and transportation.

Having the right combination of technology, expertise, people, and solutions in place is critical as companies revisit their supply chain strategies. Fortunately, leveraging supply chain technology can improve end-to-end visibility, resiliency, and efficiency within your supplier networks.

Advances in digital technology and automation are driving the continued evolution of supply chains. Some of the most impactful technologies can be grouped into three buckets:

Automation

-Robotic Process Automation (RPA)
-Configurable workflows

 

Digitization

-Artificial intelligence
-Machine learning
-Cloud computing

 

Big data

-Internet of Things

 

Companies in many industries currently employ these technologies. GlobalTranz uses these technology advances to enable and support our people.  We have used RPA to streamline many rote, operational tasks and allow our workforce to tackle more strategic, higher-value activities, particularly those which build relationships with our customers, suppliers, and partners. RPA creates a software robot leveraging a specific set of rules to automate tasks, such as document retrieval, inter-system data entry, approval processes, and gathering track and trace data. Unlike traditional custom-developed solutions, RPA can be continuously modified in a more real-time approach – especially important as the number of data sources and the sheer amount of data continues to increase.

By contextualizing data and reviewing daily processes, businesses can make complex and time-consuming processes more efficient. For example, when using RPA to gather track and trace data, you can be assured that the information is the most recent and accurate.

Before building bots to automate the collection of track-and-trace information, GlobalTranz devoted nearly 139 days’ worth of time annually, per person, to this task. Automation has enabled people to spend more time with customers and partners helping them devise strategies to address challenges brought on by COVID-19 and create a more resilient supply chain.

As companies look ahead to the economic recovery, it is imperative that they obtain greater visibility into their own facilities, their direct suppliers, and logistics partners. The crisis demonstrates the need for resiliency and accurate, real-time information that can help businesses make better-informed decisions and mitigate the costs of supply chain disruptions.

Obtaining accurate, real-time information to mitigate complexity and create resiliency requires a more digitized approach. Disruptive risks require investment in additional supply chain resilience even though the gains and the return on investment may not be immediate.

Successful organizational change, much like social change, can be influenced by the people and capabilities around us – including both stakeholders within your business and your supply chain partners – as well as how internal data and external intelligence are leveraged to make better business decisions.