Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports Experience a Fourfold Increase over Past Decade

Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports Experience a Fourfold Increase over Past Decade

January 30th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Turkey – Polycarboxylic Acids – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Turkey featured a record growth of polycarboxylic acid imports over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, imports surged fourfold in physical terms and twofold in value terms. In 2020, the supplies to Turkey rose by +41% y-o-y to 1.4M tonnes. South Korea remains the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acids, accounting for 41% of Turkey’s imports. The average polycarboxylic acid import price fell by -36% y-o-y to $599 per tonne in 2020.

Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports by Country

Over the last decade, Turkey’s polycarboxylic acid imports grew from 322K tonnes to 1.4M tonnes. In value terms, imports soared from $401M to $825M during this period.

In 2020, polycarboxylic acid imports into Turkey surged by +41% y-o-y against 2019. In value terms, imports fell from $915M in 2019 to $825M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, South Korea (568K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acid to Turkey, accounting for a 41% share of total imports. Moreover, polycarboxylic acid imports from South Korea exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Belgium (249K tonnes), twofold. Portugal (226K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 16% share.

In 2020, the volume of imports from South Korea increased by +41.2% y-o-y. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following growth of supplies: Belgium (+69.9% y-o-y), Portugal (+1.5% y-o-y).

In value terms, South Korea ($312M) constituted the largest supplier of polycarboxylic acid to Turkey, comprising 38% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Belgium ($134M), with a 16% share of total imports, and it was followed by Portugal, with a 15% share.

In 2020, the average polycarboxylic acid import price amounted to $599 per tonne, waning by -35.8% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,031 per tonne), while the price for Belgium ($539 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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The UK, Norway and Finland Benefit from Rising Sweden’s Ethylene Imports

January 30th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Sweden – Ethylene – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Sweden is rapidly ramping up ethylene imports. In the first half of 2021, Sweden purchased 100K tonnes of ethylene. Last year, imports spiked from $125M to $388M, or from 116K tonnes to 525K tonnes in physical terms. The UK, Norway and Finland supply 80% of Sweden’s ethylene imports. In 2020, the UK’s exports rose fourfold, while Norway’s and Finland’s recorded an eightfold increase. The average ethylene import price dropped by -31.8% y-o-y to $739 per tonne.

Ethylene Imports into Sweden

In the first half of 2021, Sweden imported 100K tonnes of ethylene. Over the last year, imports soared from 116K tonnes to 525K tonnes. In value terms, imports surged from $125M in 2019 to $388M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, the UK (295K tonnes) constituted the largest ethylene supplier to Sweden, with a 56% share of total imports. Moreover, ethylene imports from the UK exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Norway (88K tonnes), threefold. Finland (36K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total ethylene imports with a 6.8% share.

Over the last year, imports from the UK grew fourfold in physical terms. Purchases from Norway and Finland increased by eight times, while France expanded exports to Sweden threefold.

In value terms, the UK ($227M) constituted the largest supplier of ethylene to Sweden, comprising 59% of total imports. The second position in this ranking was occupied by Norway ($62M), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by Finland, with a 7.2% share.

In 2020, the average ethylene import price amounted to $739 per tonne, declining by -31.8% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were the Netherlands ($776 per tonne) and Finland ($774 per tonne), while the price for Portugal ($628 per tonne) and France ($641 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal, while the prices of the other significant suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Coffee Prices to Stumble After Surging 30% in 2021

January 28th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coffee (Green) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Coffee prices remain highly volatile. In 2022, the average annual price for Arabica is forecast to decline thanks to expected production growth, while Robusta price will go up on skyrocketed demand from consumers, preferring cheaper alternatives to more expensive counterparts.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2022, the coffee price for Arabica is forecast to drop by about -2% y-o-y to $4.2 per kg, while Robusta will rise by 2% y-o-y to $2.0 per kg, the World Bank’s October forecast states. Expected production growth in Brazil is to push Arabica prices down. The price increase for Robusta is caused by heightened demand after many consumers began to seek cheap alternatives to more expensive Arabica.

The average annual price for Arabica coffee rose by 36% y-o-y to $4.51 per kg in 2021, while Robusta went up by 31% y-o-y to $1.98 per kg over the same period. The average monthly price in December 2021 reached $5.91 per kg for Arabica and $2.48 per kg for Robusta.

Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of coffee with a 35% share of global exports, shipped 1.7M tonnes of coffee abroad from January through September 2021, which was +5.8% higher than in the same period of 2020. In monetary terms, Brazil’s coffee exports totalled $3.95B, increasing by 17% compared to the same period a year earlier. The average export price for Brazilian coffee jumped from $2.10 per kg in January to $2.77 per kg in September 2021.

Global Coffee Exports

In 2020, global exports of coffee in its unroasted (green) form declined modestly to 6.7M tonnes, approximately reflecting the previous year. In value terms, supplies expanded to $16B (IndexBox estimates).

Brazil was the key exporting country that supplied 2.4M tonnes of coffee abroad, approx. 35% of global volume. Viet Nam (1,208K tonnes) occupied an 18% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Colombia (10%), Indonesia (5.6%) and Uganda (4.9%). Ethiopia (231K tonnes), Peru (213K tonnes), Germany (211K tonnes), India (206K tonnes), Guatemala (189K tonnes), Nicaragua (149K tonnes) and Mexico (105K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, Brazil ($5B) remains the largest green coffee supplier worldwide, comprising 31% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Colombia ($2.4B), with a 15% share of total shipments. It was followed by Viet Nam, with a 12% share.

Top Largest Coffee Importers

In 2020, the U.S. (1.3M tonnes) and Germany (1.1M tonnes) represented the major importers of coffee in unroasted form across the globe, together mixing up 37% of total volume. Italy (565K tonnes) and Japan (390K tonnes) accounted for a further 15% of global international purchases. Spain (287K tonnes), France (229K tonnes), Russia (198K tonnes), Switzerland (180K tonnes), the Netherlands (174K tonnes), South Korea (157K tonnes), the UK (156K tonnes), Belgium (146K tonnes) and Poland (128K tonnes) occupied relatively small shares of the total volume.

In value terms, the largest green coffee importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($4.2B), Germany ($2.6B) and Italy ($1.2B), together accounting for 45% of global purchases. These countries were followed by Japan, Switzerland, France, Spain, the Netherlands, South Korea, the UK, Russia, Belgium and Poland, which together accounted for a further 30%.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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EU Olive Oil Production to Gain 13% Through 2030 on High Export Demand

January 26th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Olive Oil (Virgin) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

High prices and growing demand in the olive oil market have spurred investments to expand and mechanize plantations that will automate the production process. This will enable increased production in the EU from a projected 2.2M tonnes in 2021 to 2.3M tonnes by 2025. Thanks to rising demand from Asia, top European exporters – Spain, Italy and Portugal – will be able to boost shipments.

Key Trends and Insights

High prices for olive oil in 2020-2021 have prompted an influx of investments to expand plantation sizes in Spain, Italy and Portugal. Olive oil production is becoming completely mechanized from planting trees to harvesting the product. This facilitates minimizing waste and achieving high quality and that improves profitability. Based on projections from the EU Agricultural Outlook 2021-31, IndexBox calculates that in 2021 EU olive oil production will total 2.2M tonnes, then by 2025 increase to 2.3M tonnes and in the following years, it will steadfastly grow to reach 2.5M tonnes by 2031. In Greece, land allocated for plantations will be reduced, however, the country will retain its status as one of the leading exporters.

Climate change, drought and water scarcity will be the key negative factors hindering production growth. To mitigate that, new olive tree varieties that are more resistant to extreme weather conditions will be introduced for new plantations and to replace current ones.

Consumption per capita of olive oil in EU countries, excluding Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece, will rise about 4% annually, but remain relatively low (1.3 kg/person by 2025). At the same time, the arithmetic mean of per capita consumption in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece will decline from 9.3 kg/person in 2021 to 8.9 kg/person in 2025.

Demand from non-European countries is growing and thus driving a projected increase in the total EU olive oil shipments to outside the union from an estimated 860K tonnes in 2021 to 949K tonnes in 2025. The main gains in exports come from those countries without domestic production. In these cases, the main focus is on shipments of high-quality bottled and organic olive oil.

Portugal and Spain should significantly solidify their leadership positions in global exports thanks to heightened demand in Asia-Pacific as well as potentially increased shipments to Brazil. Spain is the largest olive oil supplier with a market share of 43% of global exports. Growing competition from producers in the southern hemisphere is forecast to not significantly influence the EU’s position on the international market.

Virgin Olive Oil Exports in the EU

In 2020, the amount of virgin olive oil exported in the EU expanded to 1.5M tonnes, growing by 11% against 2019 figures. In value terms, supplies reached $5.2B (IndexBox estimates).

Spain represented the major exporting country with an export of about 852K tonnes, which accounted for 56% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Italy (311K tonnes), Portugal (177K tonnes) and Greece (165K tonnes), together creating a 43% share of total supplies.

In value terms, Spain ($2.5B), Italy ($1.4B) and Portugal ($569M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, together comprising 87% of total exports. Greece lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 10%.

In 2020, the virgin olive oil export price in the EU amounted to $3,371 per tonne, falling by -6.2% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Italy ($4,481 per tonne), while Spain ($2,960 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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High Purity Manganese Prices Surge as China Consolidates the Industry

January 24th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Manganese Ores and Concentrates – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

China dominates imports of manganese ore, and shipments to the country are actively rebounding after 2020’s drop in mining and trade worldwide. The country is strengthening its control over the high-purity manganese sector used in electric car batteries. Chinese manganese producers have merged into a conglomerate enabling the country to influence prices and gain a competitive advantage.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, manganese ore shipments to China started to rebound after they fell a year earlier. From January through July 2021, 18.6M tonnes were purchased, which is 19% more than the same period in the previous year. in 2020, China imported 32M tonnes of ore which was 7.6% less than in 2019. at the same time, mining of manganese ore worldwide declined by 6% y-o-y to 60M tonnes due to the slump in demand from the primary downstream market, the steel industry. Global imports fell by 4% y-o-y to 43M tonnes in 2020. The country maintains its position as the largest importer with a market share of 74%.

Significant changes occur in the manganese sector due to its increasing use in the rapidly expanding electric automobile industry. China is the dominating player on the market for high-purity manganese used in car batteries, producing over 90% of the global supply. With government support, Chinese manganese companies formed a cartel-type association, the Manganese Innovation Alliance, to strengthen their positions in the global market. Since the union was created, prices for manganese shipped to South Korea have doubled.

Battery producers’ considerable dependence on products from China could hinder competition in the global accumulator market and enable Chinese products to push out foreign counterparts. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., based in China, currently constitutes the largest electric car battery producer globally. It is followed by the South Korean LG Energy Solution and the Japanese Panasonic, both importing a large portion of their manganese materials from China.

Manganese Ore and Concentrate Production

In 2020, approx. 60M tonnes of manganese ores and concentrates were produced worldwide, down by -2.9% on 2019 figures. in value terms, manganese ore and concentrate production declined rapidly to $8.7B, estimated at export prices.

South Africa (20M tonnes) constituted the country with the most significant manganese ore and concentrate production, comprising approx. 33% of total volume. Moreover, manganese ore and concentrate production in South Africa exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (7.6M tonnes), threefold. Gabon (6.8M tonnes) ranked third in total production with an 11% share.

Manganese Ore and Concentrate Imports

In 2020, global manganese ore and concentrate imports contracted modestly to 43M tonnes, waning by -4.5% on the previous year. in value terms, manganese ore and concentrate imports dropped dramatically to $7.1B (IndexBox estimates).

China dominates manganese ore and concentrate import structure, recording 32M tonnes, which was near 74% of total imports in 2020. It was distantly followed by India (3.5M tonnes), making up 8.2% of total imports. Russia (1.2M tonnes), Malaysia (1.1M tonnes), South Korea (1.1M tonnes), Norway (0.9M tonnes) and Japan (0.8M tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, China ($4.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported manganese ores and concentrates worldwide, comprising 69% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($641M), with a 9.1% share of the total value. It was followed by South Korea, with a 3% share.

The average manganese ore and concentrate import price stood at $165 per tonne in 2020, declining by -16% against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. Major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Norway ($206 per tonne) and Japan ($204 per tonne), while China ($155 per tonne) and Russia ($159 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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France’s Lipstick Exports Surges with Boosting Demand from China

January 22nd, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘France – Lip Make-Up Preparations – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

France’s lipstick suppliers benefit from the recovery of the global cosmetics market. From January to October 2021, exports of lip make-up preparations amounted to 5.9K tonnes, 11% more than in the same period of the previous year. in monetary terms, supplies abroad soared by 31% to $728M. China, the largest importer of lipsticks from France, ramped up purchases by 53% to 1.3K tonnes or 76% to $267M in value terms over the period under review. in January-October 2021, the average price of lip make-up preparations from France stood at $124 per kg, an 18%-increase compared to the figures of the same period in 2020.

France’s Lip Make-Up Preparation Exports in 2021

During January-October 2021, France exported 5.9K tonnes of lip make-up preparations worth $728M. Compared to the same period of the previous year, export rose by 11% in physical terms and by 31% in value terms. The average price of lip make-up preparations from France was estimated at $124 per kg, rising by 18% against the figures of the same period in 2020.

The sales growth was driven primarily by rising demand from China, which boosted its purchases by 53% to 1.3K tonnes or by 76% to $267M in value terms. Among other importers, the U.S., Singapore, Italy and Spain ramped up imports from France, while Germany, the UK and Russia reduced purchases.

Rising supplies from France reflect a recovery of the global cosmetics market since France remains one of the largest cosmetics suppliers worldwide. It is also the leading exporter of lipsticks with a share of 16% of the total value.

France’s Lip Make-Up Preparation Exports in 2020

In 2020, approx. 6.6K tonnes of lip make-up preparations were exported from France, waning by -18.2% compared with 2019 figures. in value terms, the supplies declined dramatically from $816M to $659M (IndexBox estimates).

China (995 tonnes), the UK (980 tonnes) and the U.S. (637 tonnes) were the main destinations of lip make-up preparations exported from France, with a combined 39% share of total volume. Germany, Singapore, Spain, Italy, Russia, Belgium, South Korea, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and Senegal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

In value terms, China ($180M) remains the key buyer of French lip make-up preparations, comprising 27% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Singapore ($86M), with a 13% share of the total value. It was followed by the U.S., with an 8.4% share.

The average lip make-up preparations export price stood at $99,600 per tonne in 2020, approximately reflecting the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($313,708 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Senegal ($3,564 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

In 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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U.S. Gelatin Imports Rise 5% to $300M

January 21st, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Bone Glues and Gelatin – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The U.S., the largest importer in the global gelatin market, boosted purchases from Argentina, Germany, France and India in 2021, while shipments from China dropped dramatically.

The U.S. continues to ramp up gelatine and bone glues imports. From January to October 2021, the supplies to America rose by 6.7% to 39.4K tonnes or 5% in value to $271M.

Compared to the same period in 2020, purchases from Brazil rose modestly by 3.5% to $87M, while shipments from Argentina ($18M), Germany ($18M), France ($8M) and India ($8M) showed double-digit growth, although they were lower in volume. Shipments from China ($16M) and the UK ($15M) dropped sharply by -30% and -13%, respectively, while the value of imports from Canada ($28M) remained nearly unchanged.

The U.S. remains the largest importer of gelatin and bone glues worldwide. The share of American purchases in the global import volume is estimated at 15.2%.

U.S. Imports of Gelatin and Bone Glues

In 2020, the amount of bone glues and gelatin imported into the U.S. was estimated at 51K tonnes, stabilizing in 2019. in value terms, bone glues and gelatin purchases expanded to $320M (IndexBox estimates).

Brazil (17K tonnes) constituted the largest bone glue and gelatin supplier to the U.S., accounting for a 33%-share of total imports. Moreover, bone glues and gelatin imports from Brazil exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Canada (5.8K tonnes), threefold. China (4.8K tonnes) ranked third in total volume with a 9.5% share.

In value terms, Brazil ($108M) constituted the largest supplier of bone glues and gelatin to the U.S., comprising 34% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($35M), with an 11% share of total imports. It was followed by China, with an 8.2% share.

In 2020, the value of supplies from Brazil rose by +15.9% y-o-y. The remaining providers recorded the following growth rates: Canada (+3.2% y-o-y) and China (-10.4% y-o-y).

The average bone glues and gelatin import price stood at $6,281 per tonne in 2020, rising by 2.9% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. The country with the highest price was Germany ($8,502 per tonne), while the price for the Netherlands ($4,053 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. The most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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South Korea’s Benzene Exports to Hit Record $2.2B With Rising Supplies to China and Japan

January 19th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Republic of Korea – Benzene – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

From January-October 2021, South Korea supplied abroad 2.0M tonnes of benzene, which was 10% more than in the same period a year earlier. Due to rising prices, exports in value terms spiked more than twofold, reaching $1.8B. Most of the increment was provided by expanded supplies to China and Japan. By the end of this year, the total value of benzene exported from Korea could exceed $2.2B, setting a new record.

Korea’s Benzene Exports by Country

From January-October 2021, South Korea’s benzene exports totaled 2.0M tonnes, a 10%-increase compared to the same period in 2020. In value terms, they surged from $875 to $1.8B over that time range.

Compared to the same period of last year, China and Japan have significantly boosted benzene purchases from South Korea this year. China ramped up imports by 31% to $1.15B, while supplies to Japan jumped by 68% to 107K tonnes.

In 2020, approx. 2.2M tonnes of benzene were exported from South Korea, shrinking by -15.5% compared with 2019. In value terms, benzene exports dropped markedly to $1.1B (IndexBox estimates).

China (1.1M tonnes), the U.S. (636K tonnes) and Taiwan (Chinese) (444K tonnes) were the main destinations of benzene exports from South Korea, together accounting for 97% of total exports.

In value terms, the largest markets for benzene exported from South Korea were China ($499M), the U.S. ($327M) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($216M), with a combined 96% share of total exports.

Last year, the average benzene export price amounted to $487 per tonne, falling by -23.6% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the key foreign markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were the U.S. ($515 per tonne) and Japan ($500 per tonne), while the average price for exports to China ($469 per tonne) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($485 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Japan, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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U.S. Bottled Water Imports to Hit Record $800M This Year

January 18th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Bottled Waters – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

From January to October 2021, American bottled water imports soared by 33% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1B tonnes. The purchases gained 8% to $672M in value terms and are expected to peak at $800M by the end of this year, setting a new record. Italy, Fiji and France are the major suppliers, accounting for 72% of the total imports.

U.S. Bottled Water Imports

From January to October 2021, the U.S. imported 1B tonnes of bottled water worth $672M. Compared to the same period of the last year, purchases increased by 33% in physical terms and by 8% in value terms.

In 2020, bottled water imports fell to 1.1M tonnes, with a decrease of -11.5% compared with the year before. In value terms, bottled water imports declined slightly to $763M (IndexBox estimates) last year.

Italy (336K tonnes), Fiji (248K tonnes), and France (239K tonnes) were the leading suppliers of bottled water imports to the U.S., with a combined 72% share of total imports. Mexico, Canada and Iceland lagged somewhat behind, comprising a further 21%.

In value terms, the largest bottled water suppliers to the U.S. were Italy ($277M), France ($167M) and Fiji ($118M), together comprising 74% of total imports. These countries were followed by Mexico, Iceland and Canada, which accounted for a further 17%.

The average bottled water import price stood at $666 per tonne in 2020, surging by 10% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Italy ($824 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($203 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

January 16th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Grain – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There’s a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84М tonnes due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook, there will be a decrease in the livestock herd in the EU in the next two years, causing lower demand for feed and a subsequent drop in grain prices. In 2024, wheat prices should decline from 206 to 178 euros per tonne, barley from 189 to 174 euros per tonne, and maize from 206 to 165 euros per tonne. This scenario is only possible if gas prices fall and the fertilizer imbalance is eliminated. However, high gas costs make fertilizer production in the EU less profitable and limit the possibility of a drop in prices in the next few years.

Demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU will remain stable, while consumption of phosphorus fertilizers will expand, driven by an increase in the input per hectare. As EU countries do not have enough phosphorus supply, a large share of the gains in consumption will be balanced by imports from the U.S., Morocco and China.

In 2025, grain prices will rise again due to higher energy resources and fertilizers costs. By 2031, costs per tonne for wheat are expected to reach 202 euros, barley – 183 euros and maize – 182 euros.

Demand for organic produce will continue to grow as Europeans place more and more preference on healthy products. This additionally will push prices up as the yield for organic produce is lower than with conventional crops due to the less aggressive use of fertilizers and pesticides.

The EU is forecast to remain competitive on the global grain market, although its share in the global exports will decrease due to tough competition from other key players, especially from the Black Sea region. Grain trade in the EU will reduce by 8% to 84М tonnes in 2025 (IndexBox estimates).

EU Grain Trade

In 2020, the amount of grain exported in the EU stood at 91M tonnes, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In value terms, exports rose significantly to $23.2B.

France was the major exporting country with about 32M tonnes, which accounted for 35% of total exports. Germany (12M tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Romania (11M tonnes), Poland (9M tonnes) and Lithuania (4.9M tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of exports in the EU. The Czech Republic (3.4M tonnes), Latvia (3.4M tonnes), Slovakia (2M tonnes), Croatia (1.9M tonnes), Sweden (1.8M tonnes) and Denmark (1.6M tonnes) occupied a minor share of the total supplies.

In value terms, France ($7.7B) remains the largest grain supplier in the EU, comprising 33% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($2.8B), with a 12% share, followed by Romania (10% share).

In France, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% in 2020. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+56.7% y-o-y) and Romania (-15.7% y-o-y).

The grain export price in the EU stood at $255 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 5% against the previous year. Major exporting countries recorded the following prices: France ($245 per tonne), Germany ($230 per tonne). In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Turkey’s Polycarboxylic Imports Experience a Fourfold Increase over Past Decade

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