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Turkey Prices in the U.S. Keep Soaring Due to Strong Demand and Labor Shortages

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Turkey Prices in the U.S. Keep Soaring Due to Strong Demand and Labor Shortages

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Turkey Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This November, the price for fresh whole body turkeys surpassed November 2020 figures by 9%, while frozen whole body turkeys jumped 20% y-o-y. A short supply of workers led to lower turkey output and higher prices on the backdrop of consistently strong consumer demand. Turkey imports to the U.S. maintained the previous year’s levels. Canada and Chile remain the only turkey suppliers to America. Unprecedented inflation rates have struck the entire food sector; in October 2021, price increases for meats, poultry, fish and eggs became the highest recorded in the past 30 years.

Key Trends and Insights

Due to accelerating food inflation, Thanksgiving dinner this year will cost Americans significantly more than the previous one. According to the latest report from the USDA, the average price for fresh whole body turkeys in November 2021 was $1.46 per pound, which is 9% more than the previous year. The price for frozen whole body turkeys came to $1.36 per pound, a 20% increase in comparison to 2020.

The average cost of organic fresh whole body turkeys totaled $3.24 per pound (+4.8% compared to November 2020), while organic frozen whole body turkeys were $3.30 per pound (+23%). On average antibiotic-free fresh whole body turkeys cost $2.37 per pound (a decrease of 7%), at the same time, frozen whole body turkeys are going for $3.30 per pound (twice the gains compared to November 2020).

The increase in turkey prices is caused by solid demand running into a 6% y-o-y drop in butchered turkeys to 4.6M tonnes, due in part to a deficit of workers. The turkey market size in 2020 totaled 2.4M tonnes, while this year, it is expected to decrease to about 2.3M tonnes.

Higher turkey prices are occurring in the broader context of unprecedented inflation for food products. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs grew by 11.9% in comparison with October 2020. That is the fastest rate of price increases in the past 30 years.

It is unlikely that imports will offset the short supply of turkeys in the US. In 2021, imports remained at comparable levels to the previous year and from January through September consisted of 7K tonnes, accounting for about 0.4% of US consumption. In monetary terms, imports totaled $19.6M, having grown by 7% in comparison with the same period in 2020. Canada makes up 80% of American imports, together with Chile being the only suppliers of turkeys to the U.S.

Turkey Exports from the U.S.

In 2020, exports of turkey meat from the U.S. contracted to 214K tonnes, with a decrease of -11.8% compared with 2019. In value terms, turkey meat exports shrank from $483M to $416M (IndexBox estimates).

Mexico (135K tonnes) was the main destination for turkey meat exports from the U.S., accounting for a 63% share of total exports. Moreover, turkey meat exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (17K tonnes), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Guatemala (4.8K tonnes), with a 2.2% share.

In value terms, Mexico ($262M) remains the key foreign market for turkey meat exports from the U.S., comprising 63% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($27M), with a 6.6% share of total exports. It was followed by the Dominican Republic, with a 2.6% share.

From 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of value to Mexico (+0.2% per year) was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (-3.0% per year) and the Dominican Republic (+0.2% per year).

In 2020, the average turkey meat export price amounted to $1,945 per tonne, with a decrease of -2.4% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the Dominican Republic ($2,434 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Jamaica ($1,195 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. Over the past decade, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Poland Emerges as the Fastest-Growing Exporter at the Global Turkey Meat Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Turkey Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global turkey meat market increased by 3.5% to $12.8B, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $13B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

The country with the largest volume of turkey meat consumption was the U.S. (2.4M tonnes), accounting for 41% of total volume. Moreover, turkey meat consumption in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (560K tonnes), fourfold. Germany (475K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 8.1% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the U.S. was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Brazil (+4.7% per year) and Germany (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, the U.S. ($4.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($1.3B). It was followed by Brazil.

The countries with the highest levels of turkey meat per capita consumption in 2019 were Israel (11 kg per person), the U.S. (7.36 kg per person) and Germany (5.79 kg per person).

Production

Global turkey meat production reached 6M tonnes in 2019, flattening at the previous year. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 5.7% against the previous year. As a result, production attained a peak volume of 6M tonnes; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

Production by Country

The U.S. (2.7M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of turkey meat production, comprising approx. 45% of total volume. Moreover, turkey meat production in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (596K tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Germany (477K tonnes), with a 8% share.

In the U.S., turkey meat production remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Brazil (+2.3% per year) and Germany (+0.7% per year).

Producing Animals and Yield

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for turkey meat production worldwide reached 660M heads, standing approx. at the previous year’s figure. Overall, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

The global average turkey meat yield amounted to 9,033 kg per 1000 heads in 2019, stabilizing at 2018 figures. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports

In 2019, approx. 1M tonnes of turkey meat were exported worldwide; growing by 2% against 2018 figures. In general, exports, however, saw a mild slump. In value terms, turkey meat exports rose sharply to $2.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a slight reduction. Global exports peaked at $3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

The U.S. (242K tonnes) and Poland (212K tonnes) represented the largest exporters of turkey meat in 2019, resulting at approx. 24% and 21% of total exports, respectively. Germany (121K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by France (7%), Italy (5.8%) and Spain (5.1%). The following exporters – Brazil (36K tonnes), Hungary (35K tonnes), the UK (28K tonnes), the Netherlands (26K tonnes), Chile (25K tonnes) and Canada (20K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest turkey meat supplying countries worldwide were Poland ($691M), the U.S. ($483M) and Germany ($343M), together comprising 58% of global exports. Italy, France, Hungary, Spain, Chile, Brazil, the Netherlands, the UK and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Export Prices by Country

The average turkey meat export price stood at $2,528 per tonne in 2019, with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 5.7% year-to-year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $2,664 per tonne. From 2015 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Hungary ($3,483 per tonne), while Canada ($1,275 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Turkey Meat Market in the U.S. Remains Robust

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Turkey Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the turkey meat market in the U.S. amounted to $4.8B in 2018, growing by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. In that year, the turkey meat market reached its peak level of $5.2B. From 2016 to 2018, the growth of the turkey meat market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in the U.S.

In 2018, the production of turkey meat in the U.S. totaled 2.7M tonnes, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, turkey meat production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern, which is largely conditioned by the stability in the demand for turkey meat in the U.S. In terms of supply, the stability of turkey meat output is feasible due to the number of producing animals which remains relatively stable, but the yield figures experiencing a modest growth.

Producing Animals in the U.S.

In 2018, the number of animals slaughtered for turkey meat production in the U.S. amounted to 239M heads, approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, the number of animals slaughtered for turkey meat production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 4.7% year-to-year.

Yield in the U.S.

In 2018, the average turkey meat yield in the U.S. stood at 11 kg per head, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period under review, the turkey meat yield continues to indicate a modest increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of 2.5% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average turkey meat yield reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, approx. 219K tonnes of turkey meat were exported from the U.S.; waning by -5.2% against the previous year. In general, after contracting in 2015, turkey meat exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern over the last four years.

In value terms, turkey meat exports totaled $419M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Mexico (110K tonnes) was the main destination for turkey meat exports from the U.S., accounting for a 50% share of total exports. Moreover, turkey meat exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (26K tonnes), fourfold. China, Hong Kong SAR (13K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 5.7% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Mexico totaled -1.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+2.2% per year) and China, Hong Kong SAR (+5.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average turkey meat export price stood at $1,911 per tonne in 2018, growing by 6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for turkey meat reached their peak level of $2,194 per tonne. From 2016 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for turkey meat remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was China ($2,572 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Haiti ($784 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the turkey meat imports into the U.S. totaled 8.5K tonnes, coming down by -21.4% against the previous year. In value terms, turkey meat imports totaled $27M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, turkey meat imports remain insignificant against the overall market size, thanks to the well established domestic turkey meat industry.

Imports by Country

Canada (4.2K tonnes), Chile (3.5K tonnes) and Israel (643 tonnes) were the main suppliers of turkey meat imports to the U.S., together comprising 99% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Chile, while the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average turkey meat import price amounted to $3,233 per tonne, increasing by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the turkey meat import price continues to indicate a resilient increase.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Israel ($5,288 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($2,730 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Israel, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform