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Large steel mills in southern Turkey are expected to remain shut for weeks, with production lines idle and workers trying to cope with the impact of the massive twin earthquakes that shook the region.

About a dozen facilities in Iskenderun and Osmaniye — close to the epicenter of the Feb. 6 temblors — account for a third of national steel output, according to Veysel Yayan, secretary-general of the Turkish Steel Producers Association.

Although plants in the area suffered no physical damage, many workers or their family members had died, while survivors struggle to get by in makeshift conditions, he said.

“All steelmakers in the area are closed,” he said by phone on Monday. “The plants may remain shut at least until the end of this month, or possibly until mid-March.”

Turkey is a top 10 global producer and exporter of steel, and the industry is among the first to provide an assessment of the toll from the deadliest temblors to hit the country in almost a century.

Although their impact on regional activity isn’t yet fully clear, Bloomberg Economics has estimated that addressing the aftermath may require the equivalent of 5.5% of gross domestic product in public spending.

A business group has put the economic cost of the earthquakes at over $84 billion — including damage to buildings and loss in national income. Declines in the labor force would cost another $2.9 billion, the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation said in a Feb. 10 report.

‘Need Calibrating’

The steel mills are facing another disruption after having to dispatch machinery and equipment to help out the rescue effort. “Cranes and some other key equipment will need calibrating” after the work ends, Yayan said.

Iskenderun Demir ve Celik AS, a unit of Turkey’s biggest steel group Erdemir, Tosyali Group’s Toscelik, Tosyali Demir Celik AS and Tosyali Toyo Celik AS, a joint venture with Japan’s Toyo Kohan Co. Ltd., MMK Metalurji, a unit of Russian Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, are among companies that operate in the region.

Steelmakers elsewhere in Turkey will have to prioritize domestic demand over exports, according to Yayan. The country’s annual steel production capacity, at 55 million tons a year, is more than sufficient to cover local demand, he said.

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Turkey Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global turkey meat market increased by 3.5% to $12.8B, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $13B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption by Country

The country with the largest volume of turkey meat consumption was the U.S. (2.4M tonnes), accounting for 41% of total volume. Moreover, turkey meat consumption in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (560K tonnes), fourfold. Germany (475K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 8.1% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the U.S. was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Brazil (+4.7% per year) and Germany (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, the U.S. ($4.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($1.3B). It was followed by Brazil.

The countries with the highest levels of turkey meat per capita consumption in 2019 were Israel (11 kg per person), the U.S. (7.36 kg per person) and Germany (5.79 kg per person).

Production

Global turkey meat production reached 6M tonnes in 2019, flattening at the previous year. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 5.7% against the previous year. As a result, production attained a peak volume of 6M tonnes; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

Production by Country

The U.S. (2.7M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of turkey meat production, comprising approx. 45% of total volume. Moreover, turkey meat production in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (596K tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Germany (477K tonnes), with a 8% share.

In the U.S., turkey meat production remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Brazil (+2.3% per year) and Germany (+0.7% per year).

Producing Animals and Yield

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for turkey meat production worldwide reached 660M heads, standing approx. at the previous year’s figure. Overall, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

The global average turkey meat yield amounted to 9,033 kg per 1000 heads in 2019, stabilizing at 2018 figures. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports

In 2019, approx. 1M tonnes of turkey meat were exported worldwide; growing by 2% against 2018 figures. In general, exports, however, saw a mild slump. In value terms, turkey meat exports rose sharply to $2.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a slight reduction. Global exports peaked at $3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

The U.S. (242K tonnes) and Poland (212K tonnes) represented the largest exporters of turkey meat in 2019, resulting at approx. 24% and 21% of total exports, respectively. Germany (121K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by France (7%), Italy (5.8%) and Spain (5.1%). The following exporters – Brazil (36K tonnes), Hungary (35K tonnes), the UK (28K tonnes), the Netherlands (26K tonnes), Chile (25K tonnes) and Canada (20K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest turkey meat supplying countries worldwide were Poland ($691M), the U.S. ($483M) and Germany ($343M), together comprising 58% of global exports. Italy, France, Hungary, Spain, Chile, Brazil, the Netherlands, the UK and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Export Prices by Country

The average turkey meat export price stood at $2,528 per tonne in 2019, with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 5.7% year-to-year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $2,664 per tonne. From 2015 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Hungary ($3,483 per tonne), while Canada ($1,275 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Turkey’s Earthquakes Paralyze Third of Steel Output Capacity