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The Importance of Supply Chain Resilience

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The Importance of Supply Chain Resilience

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Acknowledging potential weaknesses in your supply chain before they are exposed by elements beyond your control is of critical value. With current events in mind, managing future supply chain disruptions will be an integral component of corporate strategy. Calling it Supply Chain Resilience, Supply Chain Disruption, or Business Continuity Management (from the ISO 22301 standard) does not affect the necessity of having strategies in place that may make the difference between following or leading in a disrupted economy, and even between surviving or folding.

To identify potential soft spots, a review should not be limited to a single product flow or single supply chain element. For any company, the next big disruption does not have to be a pandemic; it can be something minuscule on a global scale, yet have the same devastating effect on the ill-prepared in particular trade lanes or in a particular industry. Unpredictable is not a reason to be unprepared. Creating supply chain resilience is a holistic exercise that involves more than just a few savvy logistics people. HR, finance, compliance/legal (to name a few) are all stakeholders in a healthy case of business continuity management.

How then to build a strategy? Like any other strategy, the process seems logical: review, assess, and mitigate. In this particular case: 1) review your tradelanes, products, and materials flow by matching them against risk categories (i.e., labor, business risk, global trade, nature, and materials), 2) assess risks for each combination, and 3) mitigate risks by either changing behavior now or planning for alternate (sourcing) options should the anticipated risks become reality.

Trade Lanes and Risk Categories

The relevant components to review within the supply chain include the importing and exporting country or countries, the manufacturing locations, the finished goods, and the (raw) materials. Ideally, for finished goods and materials, the associated Harmonized System (HS) codes are made available. Scratch what does not apply and move to the following step where each of the ‘inputs’ is categorically reviewed.

As mentioned, this should not be an exercise limited to supply chain professionals. For example, labor risks can be associated with the likelihood of strikes, wage volatility, and the availability of appropriate labor resources—not necessarily areas that keep the supply chain brain occupied every day.

In a similar fashion, other resilience elements expand across different areas of expertise. Business risks relate to cybersecurity, corruption, counterfeit products, and the chance of entering into business with bad actors that are on (any of the) denied party lists.

Global trade accounts for the compliance requirements related to the shipment of goods (i.e., licenses, documentation, permits, etc.), associates the products with the various duties and taxes, and identifies if Free Trade Agreements(FTA) apply and how to qualify for preferential treatment.

Arguably the most unpredictable, but not the least expected risk to account for, is nature. It’s important to identify the various kinds of disasters that may hit: natural hazards, pandemics or epidemics, flooding, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, or drought can all play parts.

Lastly, consider materials. Understanding the market comes with insights into scarcity, sourcing locations, and price fluctuations.

Risk Assessment

Risk assessments match the input with the risk categories. For example, how vulnerable is the manufacturing location when it comes to labor regulations, corruption, or flooding? Is there an FTA in place that could potentially lower the import duty burden? Where in the supply chain can a cyberattack be most expected? In short, some homework is in order to create a thorough risk profile.

For many components, the sources are readily available, such as the Corruption Index at transparency.org, labor statistics on Statista or NationMaster, or duty rate information from the various global trade content providers (or the WTO).

Building Resilience

As with cyber-security risks (PEN tests) or a regular laptop virus scan, supply chain risk assessments will point out the components that need immediate attention or, in this case, are a high priority for alternate sourcing or routing options. It’s then time to build that resilience.

Look for options by analyzing the market and tradelanes. Mine import and export data to identify alternative sources for goods and materials, even manufacturing locations. Map out alternative routes for products to get where they need to go. Document the reasonable options and share with as many people as possible—preparedness is, of course, an all-inclusive strategy.

Next and where possible: test run! Re-route shipments temporarily or source occasionally from a new supplier; in other words, make sure the alternative options are viable. In addition, communicate with external sources that would be part of continuity plans. Make them aware they are part of these plans; put people or suppliers on a retainer and try to agree on terms before disaster strikes so the projected costs can be anticipated better.

Lastly, keep those alternate plans up to date; otherwise, it may be too late to create and execute on alternate alternative plans.

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Archives, Commentary, Global Trade Daily

How to Take Fear Out of the Workplace During COVID-19

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Fear. Uncertainty. A growing sense of panic every time the president delivers a national address about the far-reaching effects of the coronavirus.

Chatter around the workplace these days is filled with questions like: Will I get sick? Will I have a job tomorrow? Can I afford to pay my rent?

What can you do when you’re facing fear in the workplace? The good news is that you can turn to four key principles: transparency, financial discipline, trust and respect for people, and a forward-focused approach. If you want to take fear out of the workplace, consider the following steps:

Embrace transparency. “Open-book management” is the idea that everyone inside your organization will be taught to understand the numbers that drive its success. Many growing business owners can be reluctant to share the truth about the financials inside their business. But they don’t realize the kind of risks they take on by doing so. They take on the burden of keeping the business alive — solo. In many cases, CEOs and owners are forced to shut the doors of the business to the shock of their associates, who are then left to wonder if they could have done something to contribute to a different outcome.

That’s why it’s amazing what happens when you have the courage to share the news — good and bad — with your people. Treat them like adults. Get their attention directed toward what they can do to help — versus panicking. Plus, the more eyes you have on a problem, the more ideas you’ll have to solve it. It’s an automatic check-and-balance on the security of your business.

Discuss your cash position. It’s been frustrating over the past few years as we’ve watched startup companies under the guidance of universities, incubators, and even investors embrace the idea that the only way they could grow was to take on debt. Some of you may find yourselves in an over-leveraged position, but that can also be an opportunity to engage your workforce and tell them the truth about the situation. If you do find yourself in trouble, ask your associates for ideas about how they can contribute to cutting costs — and increasing cash flow to the point where you can actually cover your debt obligations. You’ll be amazed at what can happen when you teach your people the rules of the game.

Protect jobs. Attracting talent and retaining it can be tough. We don’t have a future without people. In the not-too-distant past, executives sometimes became idols when downsizing jobs became the new mantra, laying off people at a time they needed those jobs the most. Something similar could happen today. Difficult times can convince companies to resort to layoffs to survive. But it is wise to think differently. Whoever has the most talented workforce will dominate their markets as soon as 2021. The time to get your organization ready for the next upturn is today — not when it’s already arrived. By then, it may be too late.

Get ready for the upturn. As bad and as uncertain as things look today, here’s a secret: it’s actually harder to get a company ready to take advantage of an upturn than it is to prepare for a downturn. Downturns can actually be opportunities to fix things inside your business that you can’t afford to invest the time and resources in when the economy is booming. While it might seem counter-intuitive, the current down market comes as a kind of short-term relief.

It’s giving us a chance to catch up — to make investments in our people and facilities — and to prepare ourselves to capitalize on the economic uptick that we expect to hit in late-2020, early-2021. By then, our workforce should be more stable and productive — and ready to take full advantage of the available opportunities. They have every incentive to do so, because, as owners of the business, they have a true stake in the outcome.

We know how painful things are today. But there’s no reason you can’t also dare to be successful. And learning how to build a culture based on transparency, financial discipline, trust and respect for people, and a forward-focused outlook, is a great place to start removing the fear that’s pervading your workplace.

__________________________________________________________

Rich Armstrong (www.greatgame.com) is the president of The Great Game of Business Inc., and co-author, with Steve Baker, of GET IN THE GAME: How To Create Rapid Financial Results And Lasting Cultural Change. This book is the how-to application of Jack Stack’s 1992 bestseller, The Great Game of Business. Armstrong and Baker co-authored the update of Stack’s book in The Great Game of Business – 20th Anniversary Edition. Armstrong has nearly 30 years of experience in improving business performance and employee engagement through the practice of open-book management and employee ownership.

Steve Baker (www.greatgame.com) is the vice president of The Great Game of Business Inc., and is a top-rated, sought-after speaker and coach on the subjects of open-book management, strategy, and execution, leadership, and employee engagement. Baker is a career marketing and branding professional and an award-winning artist.

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

THE GREAT DISTANCES TRAVELED SO YOU CAN STAY AT HOME

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Baking queries are popping up all over Google, which reported that a top trending search was “how to make banana bread.”

As millions of people across the United States are ordered to stay at home and shelter in place, many have found they have a surplus of free time on their hands that was once filled with commuting, socializing and generally being somewhere other than their house or apartment. So what to do? Of course there is enough content on online streaming and gaming services to keep us enthralled for many lifetimes, but a lot of people are trying to make the best of the hand they’ve been dealt by using the time to learn a new skill, create something, or better themselves.

The activities we are filling our time with while confined to our homes show just how monumentally global our influences, choices and opportunities really are. While restricted to our small slices of the world we have the opportunity to cook food using ingredients and make things with materials that have traveled huge distances. And we can learn the skills and practices that are part of cultures thousands of miles removed from our own, all thanks to trade – both historical and present.

Globally-Inspired Baking

Whipping up delicious baked goods is comforting and rewarding. Little is more satisfying than making your own bread from scratch – it’s the nearest most of us will come to alchemy, and it’s utterly delicious. In fact, so many Americans are turning to this source of comfort that flour and yeast are running low and producers are fighting to keep up with demand.

Bread isn’t the only option available for home chefs. Trade provides a gateway to international culinary influences, allowing us to import the knowledge of grandmothers the world over. A few simple ingredients such as flour, yeast, fat and sugar (but beware the tariffs!) are all you need to make authentic Italian pasta, fluffy Chinese steamed buns or mouthwatering Colombian arepas. A quick Internet search will help you find family recipes to master yourself.

If you fancy something a little sweeter, how about a plate of fresh-from-the-oven chocolate chip cookies – what could be more American? With cocoa beans imported from West Africa and vanilla pods from Mexico and Madagascar, you can again credit international trade with bringing you the ingredients to craft culinary magic. And for classic banana bread, your bananas are probably from Ecuador, the Philippines, Costa Rica, Colombia or Guatemala, and their complex trade story goes much further.

Knitting Together Cultures

Time at home has also reignited interest in creative outlets like painting, writing and crafting. Knitting, crochet and embroidery are some of the most popular activities we’ve been picking up to keep our hands busy, serving both as something to do and a great way to help calm anxious minds. Although only to be used when there is no other option, generous crafters in some communities are helping out by sewing homemade masks, reminiscent of the wartime “knit your bit” movement to get socks and warm clothing to front-line troops.

knitting and sewing

If you’re looking to knit up something cozy during isolation, wool from the animals of the world has you covered. The alpacas and vicunas of the Andean Highlands of Peru are a valued source of soft and squishy wool, and in South Africa Angora goats (originally from Turkey) are farmed and shorn for Mohair. And of course, humble sheep the world over offer up their coats. The many different breeds from places such as the Falklands, Spain, Australia, or the UK produce a huge variety of wool for our handmade sweaters, hats and scarfs.

Thanks to trade and innovation, numerous plant-based yarns are also available, beyond the obvious cotton. Great for crafting light and airy creations, they include materials such as raffia made from the fibers of raffia palms native to tropical Africa and Madagascar. You could also pick up yarn made from wonder-plant hemp, whose top producers include China and Canada, or yarn made from Australian eucalyptus, sustainably and ethically sourced.

Staying Healthy Inside

The closures of gyms and fitness studios and the stresses of staying cooped up mean people are trying to find ways to stay fit and healthy while they isolate, including exercising at home and experimenting with healthy foods.

Though you can no longer take a spin class or use the elliptical at your local gym, workouts that can be done at home have seen a surge in popularity, and many group fitness classes are trying to transition to providing virtual content. Many of these fitness classes and practices originally came to the United States from abroad.

Yoga mats have seen a spike in popularity on Amazon as people turn to the ancient Indian discipline to find their inner peace amidst the turmoil. One in three Americans have tried yoga at some point, and that statistic seems likely to increase even further. Perennial favorite Pilates is another way people are trying to stay healthy. It is now practiced worldwide but was originally brought to North America by German immigrant Joseph Pilates.

Young mother doing yoga with 3-years girl in front of window. Downward facing dog asana

Another way to combat the negative effects of social distancing and lack of variety is to seek out healthy foods to consume, like superfood products that claim to boost immunity or calm anxiety.

Thanks to international trade we now have access to all kinds of foods that can help us fuel and feel better. One of these is Japanese Matcha, a green tea powder made from tea primarily grown in two regions in Japan that has been a prominent part of culture there for centuries. Purported benefits include boosting brain function and helping to protect the liver and heart health. Once almost solely enjoyed in Japan, it is now available across the United States, and even at Starbucks and Dunkin’. Another popular superfood is turmeric, U.S. imports of which have surged in recent years from $2.5 million to $35 million between 2001 and 2017. It has been enjoyed in India for over 4,500 years for its ability to fend off illness but now it’s available in any grocery store to add to a home-cooked curry or to use in a turmeric latte.

International Trade Helping Our Domestic Lives

Having to distance yourself from friends and loved ones and stop doing activities you enjoy is undoubtedly tough. However, we can be thankful for – and find pleasure in – what we can still do, thanks to international trade and a globalized world.

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Alice Calder received her MA in Applied Economics at GMU. Originally from the UK, where she received her BA in Philosophy and Political Economy from the University of Exeter, living and working internationally sparked her interest in trade issues as well as the intersection of economics and culture.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Stories

Three Supply Chain Lessons for Businesses Coping with COVID-19

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As governments and healthcare agencies around the world work to stop the spread of the coronavirus, importers and exporters across 164 countries are struggling to manage the pandemic’s growing impact on their supply chains.

Despite past lessons from 2003’s SARS outbreak and 2011’s Fukushima tsunami about the hidden weaknesses in their supply chains, companies are challenged to manage logistics concerns stemming from sourcing strategies and risk management.

Developing a methodical supply chain response to the coronavirus pandemic will prove challenging, given the scale and rate of the pandemic’s spread. That said, supply chain leaders must mitigate such disruption and plan for future incidents, or risk falling behind.

Here are three lessons that the logistics industry can take away from the ongoing pandemic:

Lesson one: Evaluate your supply chain design

Current supply chain designs have predominantly followed a one-size-fits-all philosophy, on the assumption that raw materials are readily available for sourcing and production globally. While this has enabled a lower ‘cost-to-serve’ model, recent trade tensions and now the coronavirus pandemic have thrown a curveball for the global logistics environment.

Organizations should aim to optimize production and distribution capacity of their supply chain with dynamic, rather than static, operational capabilities. For example, a technology company can consider diversifying production facilities with local sources of supply in each of its major markets, rather than relying on a single source. In some companies, supply chain managers recognise the risks of single sourcing, but do so to keep costs low. These decisions trickle down the supply chain, affecting customers who do not directly source materials from impacted countries but whose suppliers do.

To prevent such future situations, companies should research suppliers in different geographical locations in anticipation of rerouting shipments from affected countries or consider having a secondary source outside the primary region to mitigate the impact. This can help further diversify the value chain.

Lesson two: Apply risk management principles in advance

While many global firms recognize the value of a risk management plan, it is often placed at the bottom of the priority scale in the absence of a crisis situation. According to a paper published by the Global Supply Chain Institute at the University of Tennessee, only 25% of a typical company’s end-to-end supply chain is being assessed in any way for risk.

Supply chains inevitably have multiple dependencies, but firms can proactively manage possible vulnerabilities at every stage through their risk management plans.

For example, having an accurate assessment of inventory is a given, but it is also critical to understand how restrictions on imports from China and affected countries will impact current inventory and regular shipping cadence. Interruption risk management strategies, including mapping and monitoring suppliers, should be applied when developing an informed inventory plan. Companies must also look ahead to forecast if the demand for goods may change in upcoming weeks – bearing in mind decreases in air capacity due to cancelled passenger flights and higher logistics demand due to current backlogs.

Lesson three: People first strategy

Above all, remember that people are the most affected throughout this pandemic. The health and safety of employees and customers must be prioritised amidst this evolving situation. Wherever possible, activate contingencies for remote-working arrangements, and implement a clear communications plan within the organisation. Doing so will go a long way in keeping employees informed while ensuring business operations are minimally disrupted.  For example, companies can develop an online information hub to address frequently-asked-questions and outline company policies that map out staffing plans.

Involve your suppliers within these plans as well – align on operational readiness including appropriate staffing numbers and facility planning for surges in volume.

Maintaining flexibility in customer support and services to customers in these difficult times is key – and how effectively a company responds to these issues will mean they remember you when things take an uphill turn again.

Plan ahead to navigate disruption

While global events such as the coronavirus pandemic are impossible to predict, it is possible to cushion their impacts by increasing supply chain preparedness. Companies must keep their contingencies in place before a crisis occurs. And when these crises do occur – these businesses will rise again.

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Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Spain’s Tissue Paper Market – Key Statistics and Trends

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Toilet Or Facial Tissue Stock, Towel And Similar Paper – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the tissue paper market in Spain amounted to $228M in 2018, surging by 2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Production in Spain

In 2018, the tissue paper production in Spain amounted to 192K tonnes, declining by -16.4% against the previous year. In general, tissue paper production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 19% year-to-year. Tissue paper production peaked at 229K tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports from Spain

In 2018, the amount of toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper exported from Spain stood at 70K tonnes, coming down by -12.3% against the previous year. In value terms, tissue paper exports amounted to $94M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

France (21K tonnes), Portugal (15K tonnes) and the UK (11K tonnes) were the main destinations of tissue paper exports from Spain, together comprising 67% of total exports. These countries were followed by Italy, Belgium, Morocco and Germany, which together accounted for a further 20%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Italy, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for tissue paper exported from Spain were France ($28M), Portugal ($17M) and the UK ($13M), with a combined 62% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Italy, Belgium, Germany and Morocco, which together accounted for a further 21%.

Export Prices by Country

The average tissue paper export price stood at $1,346 per tonne in 2018, growing by 12% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 12% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average export prices for toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper reached their peak figure at $1,368 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,821 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Italy ($1,077 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Germany, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Spain

In 2018, the amount of toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper imported into Spain amounted to 68K tonnes, waning by -6.2% against the previous year.

In value terms, tissue paper imports stood at $102M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Italy (28K tonnes) constituted the largest tissue paper supplier to Spain, accounting for a 41% share of total imports. Moreover, tissue paper imports from Italy exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Portugal (13K tonnes), twofold. France (8.5K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 13% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Italy totaled +5.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Portugal (+13.4% per year) and France (-4.5% per year).

In value terms, Italy ($40M) constituted the largest supplier of tissue paper to Spain, comprising 39% of total tissue paper imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Portugal ($17M), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 14% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average tissue paper import price stood at $1,501 per tonne in 2018, surging by 5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the tissue paper import price, however, continues to indicate a moderate contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average import price increased by 9.2% year-to-year. In that year, the average import prices for toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper reached their peak level of $1,846 per tonne. From 2015 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper failed to regain its momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,081 per tonne), while the price for Algeria ($999 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, In The News

Coronavirus: Five Severe Hits to the Automotive Industry

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As the coronavirus pandemic is engulfing the world, it is adversely affecting the very structure of our society across the globe in a hitherto unprecedented way. The countries and international organizations around the world are trying hard to halt the progress of this pandemic. The people with infection need urgent medical care, and the people who do not have infection yet are isolating in their own homes.

The risk of infection is making it mandatory to stop all the activities of every industry and economic activity in our society to minimize the transmission of the virus. However, with no vaccine or cure in sight, it can be a long battle before normalcy is restorable.

 According to experts, more people are likely to stay at home in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, which will reduce the demand for cars. Automakers have yet to see the impact of the pandemic and the real impact may only come out in the coming months. Here are the five most severe impacts of the coronavirus on the car industry.

1. Lockdowns and Curfews

Several governments across the world are imposing lockdowns and curfews in the respective countries to try and limit the spread of the virus among the population. The mode of transmission of the coronavirus is from one person to another. Since the coronavirus is highly infectious, there is a need for people to keep their distance from each other.

The places that people tend to crowd are extremely susceptible to be hotspots of transmission of the disease to many other people. Hence the doctors around the world are advising the population to follow the norms of social distancing. Cleaning your hands regularly with sanitizers or soaps to prevent the transmission of the virus is a crucial prevention method.

People do not want to go out shopping and in the U.S., the places with the maximum reports of coronavirus are already witnessing a drop in demand. Since the lockdowns are affecting the general way of life of people and there is no need for people to purchase a car in these times, it is leading to a natural decline in demand for cars and bikes such as the Yamaha wr250r.

2. Economic Slowdown

The countries across the world are facing a crisis, and the panic is causing an economic slowdown across the world. The slowdown is also causing the stock markets around the world to take a hit. Economic slowdowns always adversely affect the car industry as people tend to find a decrease in wealth for making such purchases. Even if the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, the economic impact is bound to cause ripples for months to come.

Although the long term effects of the pandemic are still unclear, car manufacturers are expecting only a delay in the purchases against people refraining from making the purchase. The reason for this expectation is that the people buy cars only due to their need for a car and not on a whim and hence can not postpone their purchase indefinitely.

3. Closing Down of Factories

In order to stop the spread of the virus and curb the transmission, the various countries are shutting down the factories operating in their state. Since there is a need for workers to be present and working in factories for ensuring smooth and continuous production of cars, manufacturing is not going on. China is a major hub of car manufacturing, and as the disease originates from the country, many plants are shut down.

Many workers come in close contact in manufacturing plants, and hence they can act as hubs of disease transmission. Only the essential services are operational for limiting close human interaction and slowing down transmission. This is slowing down the manufacturing of cars around the world.

4. Need for Medical Equipment

Due to the sudden onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic, there is a sudden surge in demand for emergency medical equipment and protective gear. Many factories are also now producing face masks and ventilators as they are in acute shortage and are currently in high demand. Since the repurposing of factories is taking place, car manufacturing is coming to a standstill.

The manufacturers are not able to use their production line for the manufacture of cars. Hence, they can easily repurpose their plants to make the medical necessities by making slight modifications to the production line. They will need an expert to monitor and guide the production as the ventilators are complex machines. Manufacturers are working closely with government officials and health authorities for the production of ventilators.

5. Slow Down of International Trade

Due to the effect of globalization, every industry sources their raw materials and individual parts in different countries throughout the world for keeping the manufacturing cost low. Since some countries are stopping the production of materials due to the coronavirus, manufacturing plants all over the world are facing acute shortages.

The manufacturing plants of cars in other countries are also facing a shortage of parts and raw materials due to international trade restrictions in light of the current situation. This leads to the slow down or temporary stopping of the manufacturing process of cars around the world.

Conclusion

The virus is already present in every inhabitable continent throughout the world and almost every country is seeing a rapid spread of the disease amongst its population. As so, every country is imposing restrictions on the people venturing outside their homes for work and other needs to limit the spread of the pandemic.

The automobile industry is responding to the calls from the government to aid in manufacturing the face masks and ventilators in these trying times. The global economy is suffering and approaching a standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic and the automobile industry is also undergoing a crisis. As a responsible citizen, you must adhere to the regulations for curbing the spread of the disease and get back to normalcy in the fastest possible time.

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Reference Links –

https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/03/15525971/coronavirus-another-severe-hit-to-the-automotive-industry

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-another-severe-hit-automotive-135056364.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/auto-news/auto-industry-stares-at-2-bn-loss-as-factories-and-dealers-shut-shop-to-stem-covid-19-contagion/articleshow/74782274.cms?from=mdr

https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2020/march/coronavirus-impact-on-auto-industry-may-accelerate/

https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/coronavirus-eu-auto-industry-faces-unprecedented-crisis

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51956880

https://www.autocarindia.com/industry/how-coronavirus-has-hit-the-global-auto-industry-a-timeline-416615

https://www.just-auto.com/news/updated-daily-automotive-coronavirus-briefing-free-to-read_id194210.aspx

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-threatens-auto-industrys-record-run-of-robust-sales-11584532801

High Authority Links –

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/mobility/article-how-will-coronavirus-affect-the-auto-industry-in-the-coming-months/

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/auto-industry-still-awaits-full-force-of-coronavirus-outbreak-57494206
spanish flu
Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

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Everyone is concerned about the coronavirus and how it is impacting the global economy. Parts of China have been quarantined to prevent the spread of the virus and the world is wondering how the virus will disrupt supply chains between China and the rest of the world and how it will impact global travel. Will cities that are cut off from the rest of the world be able to contribute to the global economy?

The main precedent for the coronavirus is the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004, but you should also look at the more serious Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919.  It is estimated that the Spanish Flu infected 500 million people worldwide, or about 27% of the world’s population and killed between 30 million and 50 million people, or about 1.7% of the world’s population. Were a similar pandemic to hit the world today, this would translate into 100 million deaths. This made the Spanish flu one of the deadliest epidemics in history. The pandemic occurred in the last year of World War I and military censors in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, United States and other countries were told to control information on the flu fearing that it would affect their ability to win the war, but there was no censorship on the flu in neutral Spain where King Alfonso XIII took ill. This gave the world the false impression that the flu originated in Spain, hence the name.

The Spanish flu came in three waves as is illustrated in Figure 1. The first wave, which made people notice the flu, occurred in July 1918.  The second and most deadly wave occurred in October 1918 and resulted in millions of deaths. A final wave of the flu occurred in February 1919, and after that, the flu disappeared. Either the virus mutated to a less lethal form or doctors got better at treating or preventing it. Just as no one knows for sure exactly where the virus came from, no one knows why it disappeared.

Figure 1. Death Rates of the Spanish Flu, June 1918 to May 1919

It is interesting to contrast the response of the stock market to the Spanish flu in 1919 with the coronavirus in 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 2,000 points in four days out of fear that the coronavirus will continue to spread and impact the global economy. The fear is that cities will become quarantined, supply chains will be broken, world trade will be impacted and growth in the global economy will slow down.

However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu. Of course, the Spanish flu occurred in 1918 while World War I was raging in Europe so the war had a larger impact on the stock market than the flu. There were few if any global supply chains that the Spanish Flu could disrupt because the war made supply chains nonexistent. The second and worst wave of flu occurred at the end of World War I when peace was finally achieved after four years of devastating destruction. It is interesting that there was little impact on the stock market of World War I ending on November 11, 1918. Perhaps euphoria about the conclusion of the war was offset by concerns about the Spanish flu.

It is comforting to see that when the final wave of the Spanish flu subsided in February 1919, the market began an increase of 50% which lasted until November of 1919.  Whether this increase occurred because of the end of World War I or the end of the flu or both is impossible to say, but it does provide encouragement that once the coronavirus begins to subside, the market will bounce back once again.

Figure 2. Dow Jones Industrial Average, January 1918 to December 1919

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Dr. Bryan Taylor is President and Chief Economist for Global Financial Data. He received his Ph.D. from Claremont Graduate University in Economics writing about the economics of the arts. He has taught both economics and finance at numerous universities in southern California and in Switzerland. He began putting together the Global Financial Database in 1990, collecting and transcribing financial and economic data from historical archives around the world. Dr. Taylor has published numerous articles and blogs based upon the Global Financial Database, the US Stocks and the GFD Indices. Dr. Taylor’s research has uncovered previously unknown aspects of financial history. He has written two books on financial history.

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230 years of Data Show Rates Will Soon Hit to 0.50 Percent

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While everyone has been concerned about the sell-off in the stock market in the past two weeks, this decline should be contrasted with the rapid rise in the price of government bonds. For the first time in history, the yield on the 10-year government bond fell below 1%.

As Figure 1 illustrates, the 75-year interest rate pyramid is continuing its path toward new lows. The pyramid began on November 30, 1945, when the 10-year bond yielded 1.55%. The yield gradually rose for the next 36 years, peaking at 15.84% on September 30, 1981. The yield has trended downward for the past 39 years and now has sunk below 1%. The past 75 years have provided a near mirror image in bond yields.  So what does it mean?

Before the current downturn, the lowest yield on the 10-year bond was 1.37% which occurred on July 5, 2016. We analyzed the 75-year interest rate pyramid in the blog “Government Bond Yields and Returns in the 2020s” which was published on January 8. We predicted the continued decline in government bond yields in the United States during the coming decade. With negative interest rates on most 10-year bonds in Europe and Japan, there is no reason why yields in the United States shouldn’t continue to decline.

The 10-year bond yielded over 3% in November 2018 and by December 31, 2019, the yield on the 10-year bond had fallen to 1.92%.  Today, the yield is half that. This decline has provided an 8% return to fixed-income investors during the past two months as the price of government bonds has risen. A 10-basis point decline in the yield rewards investors with a short-term gain of about 1%.

In the blog “300 Years of the Equity-risk Premium” published on February 5, we predicted that the total return to government bonds over the next 10 years will be around 2% per annum or less. This return can only occur through the continued decline in bond yields and increase in the price of government bonds. As we explained, government bonds have outperformed stocks since 2000; however, our analysis indicates that the return to bonds will be lower than the return to stocks over the coming decade.

The 5-year bond yield fell to almost 0.5% back in 2012.  So why can’t the 10-year bond yield decline to 0.5%in 2020? Figure 2 provides 230 years of bond yield data, which shows each decline building a deeper valley indicating that interest rates will soon reach a lower low. We believe it is only a matter of time before the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond hits 0.5%.

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Dr. Bryan Taylor is President and Chief Economist for Global Financial Data. He received his Ph.D. from Claremont Graduate University in Economics writing about the economics of the arts. He has taught both economics and finance at numerous universities in southern California and in Switzerland. He began putting together the Global Financial Database in 1990, collecting and transcribing financial and economic data from historical archives around the world. Dr. Taylor has published numerous articles and blogs based upon the Global Financial Database, the US Stocks and the GFD Indices. Dr. Taylor’s research has uncovered previously unknown aspects of financial history. He has written two books on financial history.