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U.S. Concentrated Orange Juice Import Slumps to $48M in April 2023

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U.S. Concentrated Orange Juice Import Slumps to $48M in April 2023

U.S. Concentrated Orange Juice Imports

In April 2023, supplies from abroad of concentrated orange juice decreased by -61.3% to 16K tons for the first time since January 2023, thus ending a two-month rising trend. In general, imports showed a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in December 2022 when imports increased by 206% against the previous month.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice imports declined rapidly to $48M (IndexBox estimates) in April 2023. Over the period under review, imports showed a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in October 2022 with an increase of 130% m-o-m.

Imports by Country

In April 2023, Mexico (9.2K tons) constituted the largest supplier of concentrated orange juice to the United States, with a 56% share of total imports. Moreover, concentrated orange juice imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Costa Rica (4.1K tons), twofold.

From April 2022 to April 2023, the average monthly rate of growth in terms of volume from Mexico amounted to -8.1%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average monthly rates of imports growth: Costa Rica (-2.3% per month) and Brazil (+12.0% per month).

In value terms, Mexico ($29M) constituted the largest supplier of concentrated orange juice to the United States, comprising 61% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Costa Rica ($11M), with a 23% share of total imports.

From April 2022 to April 2023, the average monthly growth rate of value from Mexico amounted to -5.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average monthly rates of imports growth: Costa Rica (+0.9% per month) and Brazil (+11.3% per month).

Import Prices by Country

In April 2023, the concentrated orange juice price amounted to $2,920 per ton (CIF, US), surging by 18% against the previous month. Overall, the import price showed a pronounced increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in July 2022 when the average import price increased by 117% month-to-month. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $4,563 per ton. From August 2022 to April 2023, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In April 2023, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,139 per ton), while the price for Brazil ($2,507 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From April 2022 to April 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Costa Rica (+3.2%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform 

orange juice

U.S. Orange Juice Prices Skyrocket on Low Output in Florida

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Unconcentrated Orange Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Instigated by low production in Florida, the monthly average retail price for 16 oz of orange juice concentrate in the U.S. peaked at $2.65 in December 2021. Although U.S. orange juice output is expected to drop, global production is forecast to rise by 11% to over 1.9M tonnes in 2022 due to high output in Brazil.

Orange juice prices skyrocketed in the U.S. on decreased production in Florida. The monthly average retail price for 16 oz of orange juice concentrate in the U.S. peaked at $2.65 in December 2021, rising by 14% from the figure of December 2020.

According to IndexBox estimated based on USDA data, U.S. orange juice production is forecast to drop by 6.5% y/y to 215K tonnes in 2022 owing to reduced output in Florida, where plantations were affected by citrus greening. U.S. ending stocks are projected to remain stable at the level of 246K tonnes this year.

Global production is expected to grow by 11% y/y to 1.9M tonnes thanks to increasing outputs in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting U.S. and EU production declines. World’s consumption is set to match production but continue its long’term downward trend.

Brazil’s orange juice production is projected to rise by 16% y/y to 1.1M tonnes in 2022. Mexico is forecast to produce 170K tonnes, 25% more than a year earlier.

EU orange juice production is set to fall by 10% y/y to 70K tonnes on reduced volumes of fruits available for processing. To compensate for the losses, the EU is projected to ramp up imports, primarily from Brazil.

Global Orange Juice Imports by Country

In 2020, global orange juice imports soared to 2.9M tonnes, jumping by 16% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, orange juice supplies expanded rapidly to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates).

The countries with the highest levels of orange juice (single strength) imports in 2020 were Belgium (626K tonnes), France (498K tonnes) and the Netherlands (459K tonnes), together comprising 54% of the total imports. Germany (306K tonnes) ranks next with a 10% share, followed by the UK (9.4%), the U.S. (7.9%) and Canada (4.5%).

In value terms, France ($376M), Belgium ($284M) and the Netherlands ($241M) were the most significant orange juice (single strength) importing markets worldwide, with a combined 44% share of global imports.

In 2020, Belgium recorded the highest growth rates of imports, expanding purchases fourfold, while supplies into other countries experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2020, the average orange juice (single strength) import price amounted to $704 per tonne, shrinking by -7.9% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada, while Belgium was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

orange juice

Global Concentrated Orange Juice Market – Brazil Strengthened Its Position as the World’s Leading Exporter

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Concentrated Orange Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global concentrated orange juice market revenue amounted to $4B in 2018, growing by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The global concentrated orange juice market peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of concentrated orange juice consumption in 2018 were Brazil (674K tonnes), the U.S. (656K tonnes) and France (141K tonnes), with a combined 62% share of global consumption. The UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, Spain and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of concentrated orange juice consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the U.S. ($1.4B), Brazil ($1.1B) and France ($218M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, together accounting for 69% of the global market. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, the UK, Ireland and Spain, which together accounted for a further 16%.

The countries with the highest levels of concentrated orange juice per capita consumption in 2018 were Belgium (8,445 kg per 1000 persons), Ireland (7,486 kg per 1000 persons) and the Netherlands (5,039 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of concentrated orange juice per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by rising demand for concentrated orange juice worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.5M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, the amount of concentrated orange juice produced worldwide totaled 2.2M tonnes, rising by 6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global concentrated orange juice production reached its peak figure volume in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice production amounted to $3.4B in 2018 estimated in export prices. In general, the total output indicated a perceptible expansion from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, concentrated orange juice production increased by +19.1% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2012 when production volume increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global concentrated orange juice production reached its maximum level at $3.5B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

Brazil (1.1M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of concentrated orange juice production, accounting for 49% of total production. Moreover, concentrated orange juice production in Brazil exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest producer, the U.S. (413K tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Mexico (137K tonnes), with a 6.4% share.

In Brazil, concentrated orange juice production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2008-2018. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the U.S. (+0.7% per year) and Mexico (+16.9% per year).

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports totaled 1.3M tonnes in 2018, growing by 16% against the previous year. In general, concentrated orange juice exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 16% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global concentrated orange juice exports attained their peak figure at 1.6M tonnes in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice exports amounted to $2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, concentrated orange juice exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when exports increased by 11% y-o-y. The global exports peaked at $2.3B in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Brazil was the largest exporting country with an export of about 381K tonnes, which amounted to 30% of total exports. Belgium (146K tonnes) occupied a 12% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (12%), Mexico (11%), Costa Rica (9.4%) and Germany (5.2%). The following exporters – Spain (31K tonnes), South Africa (25K tonnes), the UK (22K tonnes), Thailand (20K tonnes) and the U.S. (20K tonnes) – each finished at a 9.4% share of total exports.

From 2008 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to concentrated orange juice exports from Brazil stood at +1.1%. At the same time, Mexico (+29.4%), Costa Rica (+16.4%), South Africa (+9.4%), the UK (+7.3%) and Thailand (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Mexico emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +29.4% from 2008-2018. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.4%), Germany (-4.0%), the U.S. (-4.0%), Spain (-6.6%) and Belgium (-9.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2008 to 2018, the share of Mexico, Costa Rica and Brazil increased by +9.9%, +7.4% and +3% percentage points, while the Netherlands (-1.7 p.p.), Spain (-2.5 p.p.), Germany (-2.6 p.p.) and Belgium (-19.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest concentrated orange juice markets worldwide were Brazil ($706M), Belgium ($418M) and the Netherlands ($358M), together accounting for 74% of global exports. Germany, Costa Rica, Mexico, the U.S., Spain, South Africa, the UK and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 18%.

Mexico recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last decade, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average concentrated orange juice export price stood at $1,593 per tonne in 2018, declining by -6.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the concentrated orange juice export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 an increase of 28% year-to-year. In that year, the average export prices for concentrated orange juice attained their peak level of $1,744 per tonne. From 2012 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for concentrated orange juice remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($2,855 per tonne), while Mexico ($418 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 1.5M tonnes of concentrated orange juice were imported worldwide; jumping by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, concentrated orange juice imports, however, continue to indicate a measured deduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 17% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global concentrated orange juice imports attained their maximum at 2M tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice imports stood at $2.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, concentrated orange juice imports, however, continue to indicate a measured drop. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. The global imports peaked at $2.8B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of concentrated orange juice imports in 2018 were the U.S. (263K tonnes), the Netherlands (231K tonnes), Belgium (190K tonnes), France (142K tonnes), the UK (122K tonnes) and Germany (101K tonnes), together amounting to 71% of total import. The following importers – Japan (51K tonnes), Spain (44K tonnes), Ireland (41K tonnes) and Poland (35K tonnes) – together made up 11% of total imports.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($471M), Belgium ($347M) and Germany ($227M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 46% share of global imports. These countries were followed by the UK, France, the U.S., Japan, Spain, Poland and Ireland, which together accounted for a further 37%.

Among the main importing countries, Japan experienced the highest growth rate of imports, over the last decade, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average concentrated orange juice import price amounted to $1,523 per tonne, coming down by -6.1% against the previous year. In general, the concentrated orange juice import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the average import price increased by 28% against the previous year. In that year, the average import prices for concentrated orange juice attained their peak level of $1,625 per tonne. From 2012 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for concentrated orange juice failed to regain its momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Spain ($2,496 per tonne), while the U.S. ($450 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform