IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Unconcentrated Orange Juice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Instigated by low production in Florida, the monthly average retail price for 16 oz of orange juice concentrate in the U.S. peaked at $2.65 in December 2021. Although U.S. orange juice output is expected to drop, global production is forecast to rise by 11% to over 1.9M tonnes in 2022 due to high output in Brazil.

Orange juice prices skyrocketed in the U.S. on decreased production in Florida. The monthly average retail price for 16 oz of orange juice concentrate in the U.S. peaked at $2.65 in December 2021, rising by 14% from the figure of December 2020.

According to IndexBox estimated based on USDA data, U.S. orange juice production is forecast to drop by 6.5% y/y to 215K tonnes in 2022 owing to reduced output in Florida, where plantations were affected by citrus greening. U.S. ending stocks are projected to remain stable at the level of 246K tonnes this year.

Global production is expected to grow by 11% y/y to 1.9M tonnes thanks to increasing outputs in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting U.S. and EU production declines. World’s consumption is set to match production but continue its long’term downward trend.

Brazil’s orange juice production is projected to rise by 16% y/y to 1.1M tonnes in 2022. Mexico is forecast to produce 170K tonnes, 25% more than a year earlier.

EU orange juice production is set to fall by 10% y/y to 70K tonnes on reduced volumes of fruits available for processing. To compensate for the losses, the EU is projected to ramp up imports, primarily from Brazil.

Global Orange Juice Imports by Country

In 2020, global orange juice imports soared to 2.9M tonnes, jumping by 16% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, orange juice supplies expanded rapidly to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates).

The countries with the highest levels of orange juice (single strength) imports in 2020 were Belgium (626K tonnes), France (498K tonnes) and the Netherlands (459K tonnes), together comprising 54% of the total imports. Germany (306K tonnes) ranks next with a 10% share, followed by the UK (9.4%), the U.S. (7.9%) and Canada (4.5%).

In value terms, France ($376M), Belgium ($284M) and the Netherlands ($241M) were the most significant orange juice (single strength) importing markets worldwide, with a combined 44% share of global imports.

In 2020, Belgium recorded the highest growth rates of imports, expanding purchases fourfold, while supplies into other countries experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2020, the average orange juice (single strength) import price amounted to $704 per tonne, shrinking by -7.9% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Canada, while Belgium was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform