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U.S. Biodiesel Market: Price Rally to Continue in 2022, Making Biofuel Uncompetitive

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U.S. Biodiesel Market: Price Rally to Continue in 2022, Making Biofuel Uncompetitive

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Biodiesel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Biodiesel prices in the U.S. soared by 59% y/y last year, making biofuel less competitive compared to fossil fuels. The average FOB price for American biodiesel B100 was $5.58 per gallon in November 2021, while the on-highway average price for conventional diesel was $3.74 per gallon.

Biodiesel prices skyrocketed in the U.S. in 2021, and their growth is to continue this year. According to USDA data, the average spot FOB export price for biodiesel B100 from the plants in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio reached $5.58 per gallon in November 2021, surging by 59% against 2020. The on-highway average price for conventional diesel soared by 41% y/y to $3.64 per gallon, remaining much lower than those of biodiesel.

The rising costs of vegetable raw materials and energy were the key reasons for the biodiesel price increase and will further propel the biofuel prices this year. According to World Bank’s forecast, the price for soybean oil, one of the significant raw inputs for biodiesel production, is set to grow by nearly 4% totalling $1,425 per tonne in 2022. The cost of fossil fuels is also projected to remain at the high level of 2021, which implies increased expenditures for energy in biodiesel manufacturing.

U.S. Biodiesel Exports by Country

Biodiesel exports from the U.S. surged to 476K tonnes in 2020, rising by 25% from the previous year’s figure. In value terms, supplies fell modestly to $381M (IndexBox estimates).

Canada (424K tonnes) was the leading destination for exports from the U.S., with an 89% share of total supplies. Moreover, exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Peru (19K tonnes), more than tenfold. The Netherlands (14K tonnes) held the third position in this ranking, with a 2.9% share.

In value terms, Canada ($351M) remains the key foreign market for biodiesel from the U.S., comprising 92% of total exports. The Netherlands ($9.9M) held the second position in the ranking, with a 2.6% share of total supplies. It was followed by Peru, with a 2.3% share.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Belgium Overtakes Germany as Second-Largest Biodiesel Exporter Worldwide

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Biodiesel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This year, Belgium is overtaking Germany to emerge as the second-largest biodiesel exporter in the world. From January to July 2021, Belgium supplied biodiesel worth $2.1B abroad, while Germany’s exports were estimated at $1.8B. The Netherlands keeps the leading position with a biodiesel export value of $4.2B. In 2020, Germany ($2.3B) followed the Netherlands ($4.6B) in global export ranking, while Belgium ($1.5B) took third place. The average biodiesel export price grew by +11% y-o-y to $979 per tonne in 2020. 

Global Biodiesel Exports by Country

Over the period from January to July 2021, the Netherlands remains the top biodiesel exporter worldwide, with a $4.2B value of the shipments abroad. Belgium ($2.1B) took second place in the global export ranking, followed by Germany ($1.8B).

In 2020, the amount of biodiesel exported worldwide amounted to 16M tonnes. In value terms, biodiesel exports were estimated at $15.9B (IndexBox estimates).

Last year, the Netherlands (4.7M tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (2.3M tonnes), Belgium (1.6M tonnes), Spain (1.5M tonnes), and China (0.9M tonnes) were the significant biodiesel exporters, together creating 70% of total exports. The following exporters – Argentina (597K tonnes), France (557K tonnes), Italy (494K tonnes), the U.S. (476K tonnes), Malaysia (402K tonnes), Canada (397K tonnes), Poland (365K tonnes) and Austria (289K tonnes) – together made up 23% of total exports.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($4.6B), Germany ($2.3B) and Belgium ($1.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 55% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Spain, China, Italy, France, Argentina, the U.S., Canada, Malaysia, Austria and Poland, which accounted for 38%.

Italy saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports in 2020, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. The value of biodiesel exported from Italy rose from $719M to $1.1B.

The average biodiesel export price stood at $979 per tonne in 2020, rising by +11% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,289 per tonne), while Argentina ($784 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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The Global Biodiesel Market Retains Robust Growth Despite the Pandemic and Low Oil Prices

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Biodiesel – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Neither the pandemic nor the low oil prices succeeded in slowing the growth of the global biodiesel market. As economies worldwide start to recover from the Covid crisis, and environmental concerns increase, the demand is set to remain robust in 2021. 

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, the demand for biodiesel declined to 39.5M tonnes after five years of solid growth, largely a result of reduced transport activity during the pandemic. In 2021, global biodiesel consumption started to recover robustly. Despite the low prices for conventional types of fuel, the global energy market is striving to adhere to the Paris Agreement by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making a shift towards using sustainable forms of energy, which is to promote the use of biofuels.

The European market became especially attractive for Asian exporters in the first half of 2021: local biofuel producers were forced to cut output against high prices in the EU for vegetable oils. The biofuel shortage in Europe could be offset by supplies of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, but in 2019, the European Union intended to secure the gradual phasing out of palm oil as a viable fuel. This is spurred by the concern regarding tropical rainforests destroyed while expanding palm plantations, which depreciates any positive effect for the environment that could be achieved from the use of biofuel.

In 2021, American biofuel producers initiated a rapid rise in production but faced the risk of a shortage of raw materials. Assuming the demand for biodiesel to increase, the USA plans to see a fivefold increase in biofuel production capacity by 2024.

The global demand for fuels is set to increase along with the recovery of the global economy from the pandemic. Rising environmental concerns worldwide become a new powerful trend transforming the global energy market. Since biodiesel meets the green agenda, it should enjoy accelerated market growth in the medium term. It is forecast that the biodiesel market is set to develop at an average annual rate of +4.9% through to 2030, to approx. 63М tonnes.

Biodiesel Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of biodiesel consumption in 2020 were Indonesia (6.2M tonnes), the U.S. (5.6M tonnes) and Brazil (5.4M tonnes), together comprising 44% of global consumption.

In value terms, Brazil ($5.8B), Indonesia ($5B) and the U.S. ($4.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2020, together accounting for 42% of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of biodiesel per capita consumption in 2020 were the Netherlands (55 kg per person), France (40 kg per person) and Spain (34 kg per person).

Biodiesel Exports and Imports by Country

In 2020, overseas shipments of biodiesel decreased by -11.8% to 16M tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In value terms, biodiesel exports fell to $15.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, the Netherlands (4.7M tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (2.3M tonnes), Belgium (1.6M tonnes), Spain (1.5M tonnes) and Argentina (0.8M tonnes) were the key exporters of biodiesel, together comprising 66% of total exports. The following exporters – China (665K tonnes), Malaysia (564K tonnes), Bulgaria (494K tonnes), the U.S. (476K tonnes), Canada (397K tonnes), France (397K tonnes), Poland (365K tonnes) and Italy (265K tonnes) – together made up 22% of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, China (+51.3% per year) saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2020, after five years of growth, there was a significant decline in supplies from abroad of biodiesel, when their volume decreased by -7.4% to 16M tonnes. In value terms, biodiesel imports contracted modestly to $15.9B in 2020.

In 2020, the Netherlands (3.9M tonnes), distantly followed by Belgium (1.8M tonnes), Germany (1.5M tonnes), Spain (1.2M tonnes), the UK (1.1M tonnes), France (1.1M tonnes), Italy (1.1M tonnes) and China (0.8M tonnes) were the key importers of biodiesel, together making up 77% of total imports. The U.S. (674K tonnes), Canada (518K tonnes), Poland (319K tonnes) and Bulgaria (276K tonnes) took a little share of total imports.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform