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Orange Prices to Pick Up in 2022 Despite Global Production Growth

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Orange Prices to Pick Up in 2022 Despite Global Production Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Oranges – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Despite an expected global production growth in 2022, orange prices will moderately increase due to the rising cost of fertilizers, pesticides, energy and limited workforce. This year, the world’s orange output is forecast to rise by 3% y/y to 77M tonnes due primarily to expected favourable weather in Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.

This year, orange prices are forecast to grow, despite an expected increase in global production. According to World Bank’s data, the average annual orange price is to pick up 3% y/y, reaching $0.67 per kg in 2022. Last year, that figure totalled $0.65 per kg, increasing by 8% y/y.

Global orange production is set to rise by 3% to 77K tonnes due to expected favourable weather conditions in Mexico, Brazil and Turkey. Orange production in Mexico is to gain 3% y/y, reaching 4.3M tonnes by the end of 2022. In Brazil, the output is forecast to rise by 12% to 17.5M tonnes. Turkey is expected to produce 1.8M tonnes of oranges, 40% more than in 2021.

Argentina is to ramp up production by 6% to 1.1M tonnes. Slight increases in output are expected in China and Morocco. By contrast, Egypt is set to reduce production by -16% to 3.0M tonnes.

U.S. output is set to drop by 11% to 3.6M tonnes due to plant disease citrus greening, which affected most plantations in Florida. EU production is also to fall by 6% to 6.1M tonnes on unfavourable weather and a slight drop in harvested area. The EU is projected to ramp up orange supplies from South Africa and Brazil to offset the production decrease. American imports to keep calm with weak consumer demand.

Global Orange Imports by Country

Global orange imports rose markedly to 7.5M tonnes in 2020 (IndexBox estimates), surging by 8% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, orange imports soared to $6.4B.

The countries with the highest levels of orange imports in 2020 were the Netherlands (622K tonnes), Germany (499K tonnes), France (477K tonnes), Russia (428K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (405K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (303K tonnes), China (293K tonnes), the UK (267K tonnes), Bangladesh (229K tonnes), Italy (216K tonnes), Spain (209K tonnes) and the United Arab Emirates (207K tonnes), together accounting for 55% of total volume. Canada (203K tonnes) held a minor share of total imports.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($557M), Germany ($506M) and France ($494M) were the countries with the highest levels of purchases in 2020, together accounting for 24% of global imports. These countries were followed by China, Russia, Hong Kong SAR, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Italy, Spain, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates, which together accounted for a further 35%.

The average orange import price stood at $848 per tonne in 2020, with an increase of 18% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was China ($1,050 per tonne), while Saudi Arabia ($555 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+68.2% per year), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

agricultural products chloride
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Largest Importers of U.S. Agricultural Products

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According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. agricultural and related exports totaled $162 billion in 2020, the third-highest total on record. The U.S.’s top agricultural export partners have shifted over the years, from Western Europe and Russia to South and East Asia, Latin America, and North Africa. A growing world population and expanding middle class in developing countries suggest that U.S. agriculture will remain in high demand looking ahead.

Total U.S. agricultural and related goods exports peaked in 2014 at over $170 billion. The following year, the value dropped by 12% due to a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar; agriculture exports remained fairly constant after that. Tariffs imposed during the Trump administration resulted in retaliatory tariffs by important trade partners, which impacted U.S. agricultural exports to those countries, particularly to China. However, the impact on total agricultural exports was minimal, in part due to increased exports to other non-retaliating countries.

Since 1980, consumer-oriented goods have made up an increasingly large share of U.S. agricultural exports. Consumer-oriented agricultural products are higher-value goods destined for direct consumer consumption, and include things like meat, eggs, fruit, and vegetables. This trend is due in part to changing consumer preferences resulting from rising incomes globally. Many developing countries—including China, Mexico, and Indonesia—are important trade partners to the U.S., and rising household incomes in these countries have led to increased demand for higher-value products such as meat, dairy, and fresh produce. Bulk goods make up the second-largest share of U.S. agricultural exports and include products like grains, oilseeds, and cotton.

While the U.S. and Europe have historically been the world’s largest importers and exporters of agricultural goods, emerging economies are becoming increasingly important to global trade. On a regional basis, East Asia—which includes China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—is the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, accounting for 34% of all U.S. agricultural exports in 2020. Southeast Asia—which includes Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia—is now the third-largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, behind North America and ahead of the European Union. For context, Southeast Asia ranked seventh in 1990.

To find the largest importers of U.S. agricultural products, researchers at Commodity.com analyzed data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The researchers ranked countries according to the total value of U.S. agricultural products that each country imports. Researchers also calculated each country’s value as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, the top U.S. agricultural product exported to each country, and other detailed statistics.

Here are the biggest importers of U.S. agricultural products.

Country
Rank
Total value of U.S. agricultural exports to country
Country’s value as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports
Top U.S. agricultural product exported to country
Bulk total value
Intermedial total value
Consumer-oriented total value
Agricultural related total value
China

 

   1 $28,750,288,000    17.7% Soybeans $19,132,864,000  $1,872,701,000  $5,393,904,000  $2,350,819,000
Canada   2  $25,414,534,000    15.7% Bakery Goods, Cereals, & Pasta

 

 $1,023,675,000  $4,160,305,000  $17,093,000,000  $3,137,555,000
Mexico

 

   3  $18,962,080,000    11.7% Corn $6,132,761,000  $3,914,580,000  $8,288,950,000  $625,787,000
Japan   4  $12,887,108,000    8.0% Beef & Beef Products

 

 $3,966,270,000  $1,377,563,000  $6,371,574,000  $1,171,700,000
South Korea   5  $8,241,801,000    5.1% Beef & Beef Products

 

 $1,604,410,000  $1,560,234,000  $4,541,906,000  $535,251,000
Vietnam

 

   6  $3,744,450,000    2.3% Cotton $1,790,124,000  $643,589,000  $928,273,000  $382,465,000
Netherlands   7  $3,741,523,000    2.3% Soybeans $1,158,135,000  $965,926,000  $1,221,265,000  $396,197,000
Taiwan   8  $3,349,146,000    2.1% Soybeans $1,194,534,000  $350,236,000  $1,729,362,000  $75,015,000
Philippines   9  $3,230,646,000    2.0% Soybean Meal $919,558,000  $1,182,673,000  $1,107,535,000  $20,881,000
Indonesia   10  $2,897,691,000    1.8% Soybeans $1,486,644,000  $682,172,000  $654,523,000  $74,352,000
Colombia   11  $2,881,065,000    1.8% Corn

 

 $1,305,913,000  $923,885,000  $632,865,000  $18,402,000
United Kingdom   12  $2,740,498,000    1.7% Forest Products

 

 $119,602,000  $506,820,000  $1,100,002,000  $1,014,074,000
Hong Kong   13  $2,182,661,000    1.3% Beef & Beef Products

 

 $31,654,000  $89,541,000  $1,911,321,000  $150,145,000
Egypt   14  $1,920,256,000    1.2% Soybeans $1,509,877,000  $180,781,000  $204,093,000  $25,506,000
Thailand   15  $1,900,352,000    1.2% Soybeans $868,546,000  $508,351,000  $398,499,000  $124,957,000

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/us-agricultural-importers/