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India’s National Logistics Policy: What Next?

india's logistics

India’s National Logistics Policy: What Next?

An overview of India’s National Logistics Policy. Why, What and Next Steps. By Raghu Ramachandran, Business Analyst and Founding Partner of 13 Colony Global.

“At a time when the opportunity exists to be an alternative to the Chinese market, India requires a government more attentive to the country’s infrastructure needs and active deregulation to encourage Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for the economy to grow at projected pre-pandemic rates in the near future. Only a nationwide structural – including labor and licensing – and consistent long-term reforms, along with spending on infrastructure will attract investments into India.”

This excerpt was taken from a whitepaper, written[1] in November 2020, discussing the Indian Logistics Market which was coming up for air after the pandemic induced shutdown of March 2020.

I quote this as a pre-amble to the National Logistics Policy of India – outlined as a need to reduce logistics costs by the finance minister in her 2020 budget – that was unveiled in September 2022.

Over the past several years (pre-pandemic), the Indian Government rolled out a series of measures starting with a nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST) and electronic waybill for transportation providers who crossed state borders, which reduced corruption and expedited transit times. Along with those, doors were opened for additional funding including foreign direct investment for the logistics industry, by highlighting its dependence on basic infrastructure.

In 2017 a Logistics division was formed within the Department of Commerce, with an explicit mandate to develop an “integrated logistics sector.” This meant policy changes, improvement in existing procedures, identification of bottlenecks and gaps, and the introduction of technology in this sector. There have been sector specific development initiatives introduced for roads, highways, ports, and better air connectivity.

In the past year the federal government rolled out a master plan (Gati Shakti) to reverse the chronic delays and abandonment of major infrastructure projects by coordinating the development and rollout of them across different departments and in collaboration with the states. All these reforms – fiscal and process – laid the foundation for the roll out of the National Logistics Policy.

A key catalyst is the post Covid re-alignment of the supply chain and the very real possibility that India would be left behind the Southeast Asian countries as most manufacturers and multi-nationals moved towards a China+1 strategy. An ambitious multi step approach to reduce the logistics costs and improve India’s logistics performance index ranking to those of the developed countries was the basis for a logistics policy. While most developed countries have a low logistics cost to GDP ratio, the Indian costs have been in the 14 to 18% range for years.

The Indian government provided several incentives for increasing manufacturing and invested in road, air, and port infrastructure. However, with a lack of a coordinated end-to-end supply chain and logistics perspective, and the siloed investments, there remained huge challenges and increasing costs for the growing number of multinationals who had established operations to meet the Indian consumer’s needs.

Apple, with its global supply chain, is increasing its manufacturing outside China, and with India being an untapped market, saw it fit to expand operations in country. Auto manufacturers from Japan and Korea started this trend years earlier, and along with them, the parts suppliers. The early entrants improvised their logistics while the more recent manufacturers like Mercedes seek to reinvigorate the supply chain network to developed country standards.

While the pandemic exposed the challenges with cross border just-in-time replenishment, India faced an internal challenge with a supply chain network on different technology and communication platforms with minimal integration. The comprehensive plan of the recently unveiled logistics policy was influenced by the Confederation of Indian Industry’s (CII) strategic vision and key enablers for a successful logistics sector.

The main thrust of the plan is to provide a unified digital platform that the logistics sector can leverage and ease the processes for manufacturers including exporters and importers. The objective is to ensure end-to-end visibility to all parties and reduce inefficiencies. A forum through an ease of logistics services (e-logs) platform is also part of the plan ensuring that any operational issues are flagged for government agencies to resolve.

Besides the digital thrust, the logistics plan addresses, and encourages leveraging an integrated multi-modal network. A greater emphasis is placed on a shift and an increased use of an underutilized rail network, built with an emphasis on passenger transport and less for freight movement. Along with rail, inland water transport, coastal shipping, and use of pipelines to move bulk liquid is also part of the plan.

Along with transport, specific plans to meet the needs of 15 of the largest users of transport and logistics are being addressed with an effort to build a national grid of multi-modal logistics parks, with private investments taking the lead, around the key manufacturing and port locations. In sync with the logistics parks, standards, and guidelines – including clearances, for the expansion and development of warehousing industry and a system to rank and rate them – the plan also seeks to ensure there is an adequate pipeline of skilled resources to achieve the reduction in logistics costs and improvement of the LPI rank.

To paraphrase, the logistics plan is composed of

  1. Unified digital platform
  2. Integrated multi-modal network with an emphasis on using rail, inland ports etc.
  3. Standardization of physical assets including warehousing and containers
  4. Supply Chain Skills development

While there is uniform appreciation for the logistics plan, the challenge remains in the execution and rollout of the policies. The Indian logistics market suffers from mediocrity in comparison to the markets they compete with for attracting suppliers and manufacturers. The average turnaround time of the Indian ports is 20 to 40 hours behind the global average and the existing port infrastructure, not to mention the inland port structure, must be upgraded.

The business structure of the railroad is geared towards passengers and unless more freight corridors with greater high value goods, rather than bulk commodity cargo, and better transit times are established, they will continue to lag the fragmented road freight market. Only around 25% of freight, almost all bulk commodity, moves via rail currently. For an institution for whom customer experience has never been a priority, the Indian Railways needs to be fast, reliable, and flexible to accommodate the enterprise customers.

Admittedly it is difficult to assess the impact of Gati Shakti, Bharatmala, Sagarmala and myriad other efforts related to streamlining Infrastructure and lowering the logistics costs as a % of GDP. However, the combination and coordinated execution of these policies while removing bureaucratic hurdles is the key to a successful implementation of the National Logistics Plan[2].

[1] Economy, e-commerce, Growth: The Indian Logistics Sector, Sept 2020 Raghu Ramachandran, 13 Colony Global

[2] The information in this brief was gathered from Government Press releases, briefing documents, news articles

baltimore import mach electronic shipping route import 7LFreight Expands Instant Cargo Pricing and Booking for North American Forwarders Across Both Air and Trucking  import container descartes automation baltimore bridge container freight global trade

7LFreight Expands Instant Cargo Pricing and Booking for North American Forwarders Across Both Air and Trucking 

The global supply chain crisis of 2021 and 2022 underscored the business need for real-time and accurate freight decision-making for forwarders and customers. In order to help North American forwarders provide more competitive service, 7LFreight, a Freightos Group company, today announced the launch of real-time cargo rate management and booking of Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) freight within their platform. 

With this development, forwarders of all sizes can step beyond 7LFreight’s leading comprehensive rate procurement across more than 2,500 cartage agents and 100 airlines, to instant bookings across every major North American LTL carrier, including SAIA, Estes, AAA Cooper and more. In addition, 7LFreight helps forwarders extend the convenience to their customers as well, easily adding predetermined markups and allowing customers to rate and book shipments themselves in just minutes.  

The shift from static rate management and quoting to dynamic bookings extends beyond just trucking. 7LFreight already supports real-time eBooking across an industry-leading collection of major airlines including American Airlines, Emirates SkyCargo, Turkish Airlines, LATAM and others, via an integration with WebCargo.  

7LFreight is used by over 10,000 forwarding professionals through a friendly user interface and accessible API. North America has been one of the fastest growing markets for digital eBookings with over a 5x YoY eBooking growth in the region. Forwarders can request a demo for 7LFreight’s freight rate management and booking tool at 7LFreight.com/ltl

About 7LFreight, a Freightos Group Company

7LFreight is a highly effective freight rate management, pricing and booking tool for North American forwarders. With its uncompromising commitment to providing world-class customer service, 7LFreight is used by over 1,250 offices worldwide with over 10,000 transportation professionals relying on 7LFreight as their primary source of rate information. Since its acquisition by the Freightos Group in early 2022 and subsequent integration with WebCargo, air cargo eBookings have been made possible across dozens of airlines, including leaders like American Airlines, Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airways, and many more. More information is available at 7LFreight.com 

7LFreight joins WebCargo as a leading platform for live air cargo rate distribution and bookings between hundreds of airlines and 3,500+ forwarders across over 10,000 forwarding offices. Freight forwarders can access dynamic capacity, pricing, and eBooking by signing up for free at webcargo.co. 

The Freightos Group also operates freightos.com, the world’s largest digital freight platform for the trillion-dollar international shipping industry, and the Freightos Baltic Index, the only daily container index, in collaboration with the Baltic Exchange. 

Founded by serial entrepreneur Zvi Schreiber, Freightos is a logistics technology pioneer with a worldwide presence, and has raised over $120 million from leading venture funds, including GE Ventures, Aleph and the Singapore Exchange. In June 2022, Freightos announced that it would merge with GESHER I (Nasdaq: GIAC) with the intent of going public on the Nasdaq (CRGO).

productivity supply chain 4.0 goods

Here’s What It Takes to Be Agile During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Despite the hindrances the pandemic put on it, the global beauty industry is worth an estimated $511 billion. That persistent growth continues despite an environment where global manufacturing has declined, traffic has piled up, and workforces have been slashed. While still thriving, beauty brands are just one of many industries left vulnerable to these disruptions — and this may be why you’re waiting months for an item to restock or why store shelves lay empty.

To be sure, most industry supply chain issues aren’t just pinned to one specific barrier. They’re a combination of factors, from ingredient sourcing and manufacturing to employment shortages and importing issues. Supply chain disruptions have impacted countless brands’ packaging and ingredient needs, resulting in companies having to scale back on new product launches, change their timelines, and alter their order quantities. In some cases, brands are running out of product and being forced to order much larger quantities than usual to ensure they’re fully stocked to meet customer demand.

Thus, supply chain management in every industry requires agility. Companies that plan accordingly and use fresh data to adjust their methods and procedures are the ones that will continue to thrive.

How Industry Supply Chain Challenges Impact Business Operations

The challenges faced by the cosmetics industry in the supply chain mirror those of just about every other industry and have the potential to be endless. Mismanaged supply chain and fulfillment issues impact business operations in a plethora of ways.

First is the obvious result — companies having too much or too little of the products they need. Then, there’s the aforementioned pushing back (or complete forgoing) of product launches due to delayed packaging or ingredient shipments caused by those backed-up supply chains.

Companies such as Meraki Organics Inc. had to list items as “sold out” on its website due to such ingredient shortages and packaging issues — not great timing, considering it was around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Peak selling seasons are integral for companies, so it’s extra important to plan during those times for any supply chain hiccups. A lack of proper preparation could seriously impact revenue in negative ways.

A way to properly plan ahead is to list out all materials needed to create and package your products. Keep a keen eye on the news to monitor supply chain issues so you can anticipate delays and shortages before they directly impact your company. For example, during peak Covid times, there was a shortage of glass bottles since they were in high demand for vaccine producers. This inadvertently affected many sustainable beauty brands that rely on glass for their products.

Supply Chain Strategies to Stay Ahead of the Curve

The industry supply chain can create many challenges for just about any business on earth. For companies to stand the test of time and thwart any curveballs thrown their way, they must have a comprehensive plan to deal with problematic supply chain issues. Here are three tips for leaders in all industries that rely on steady manufacturing and an efficient supply chain on how to do just that.

  1. Get proactive.

Track product sales and usage to forecast when you need to put in orders to restock. Sales cycles will vary across different companies, so it is important you track your company patterns closely so you can identify instances when you’ll likely require more product than usual.

To do this, choose a time frame that makes sense for your business. It could be over the course of a month, quarter or year. Then, choose what you will measure. Are your clients buying more skincare-related products or makeup? Are they buying moisturizer with sunscreen all year round or only during the sunny months?

As you are keeping tabs on your sales, simultaneously track factors that may be affecting your final conclusions, such as inflation on raw materials, internal changes, new competition in the market, etc. Tracking outside factors will give you a better grasp on what is affecting the purchases of your consumers and help you better forecast for the future.

Sales predictions can be a good indicator for investors when making important business decisions. It is always best to estimate your numbers conservatively — the old “underpromise and overdeliver” mantra. Keep in mind all the factors that can impact your products’ sales, such as industry competitors, economic variables, material issues, and overall market indicators.

  1. Work with a transparent contract manufacturer.

Companies are increasingly realizing the importance of tracing their products in the supply chain. This requires strong relationships with the manufacturing companies you work with. It is crucial that your CM be transparent with you about what is being delayed and for how long, as this is vital for your planning purposes.

Remember the two Ts: traceability and trust. When you have trust, you can trace — and thus you can plan appropriately when unavoidable delays arise.

  1. Have a backup plan.

If a product or collection can’t launch or will be delayed, it’s crucial to have a Plan B (or C) in place. You never know what issues might arise and catch you flat-footed when urgency is key.

Let’s say your CM is low on an essential ingredient. Make sure this partner has other vendors it works with so you have other options at your disposal. That way, if they run out of an ingredient, they can try to source it from elsewhere. Different products obviously require different technical skills from research and development and different machinery for production.

As company leaders, you must prepare for crises such as shortages and industry supply chain issues. Your ability to manage these supply chain issues not only helps your company stay afloat but it also further solidifies your reputation in a market where consumers are looking for reliable brands. Utilize these tips to give your brand breathing room when supply chain challenges inevitably affect your business.

Mark Wuttke is the Chief Growth Officer at Cosmetic Solutions Innovation Labs, a globally recognized contract manufacturer and innovation partner that offers the operational excellence of large-scale contract manufacturers with the proactive leadership and flexibility to help brands grow on their terms.

 

supply

Global Supply Chain Disruption & Rising Costs Driving More Interest in Nearshoring & Reshoring Manufacturing to North America

Rising costs to manufacture in China disrupted supply chains causing shortages of all manner of goods, and congested transportation networks are all driving U.S. companies to more actively consider bringing manufacturing closer to the U.S. – with Mexico becoming an increasingly popular choice.

A big factor has been the impact of the pandemic, which caused companies to focus on the risk of continuing to rely on long, complicated global supply chains, and what that meant for their businesses. Some of these risks included losing a supplier, incomplete orders, delayed goods that arrived too late to market, or even upon arrival, being delayed because of port or rail congestion.

Among the strongest trends are companies either relocating manufacturing to Mexico, along the border as well as inland or choosing to expand production in Mexico rather than another Asia location, notes Rosemary Coates, executive director of The Reshoring Institute, based in California’s Silicon Valley.

According to Coates, some companies are adopting a strategy of diversification where they choose to first move a portion of manufacturing from China to another Asian location, like Vietnam or Malaysia. “At the same time, there has been a strong trend toward adding operations in Mexico as part of a strategy to diversify and de-risk supply sources and production,” she notes, adding that Mexico is still a comparatively low-cost labor market, and provides for much faster transit times to U.S. consumers.

Another trend is Chinese-based companies going with “nearshoring” strategies of their own, establishing their own operations and sourcing manufacturing closer to the U.S. – with Mexico at the top of the list. “You see signs for Chinese companies all along the border where they’ve set up manufacturing, again, to shorten the supply chain and get closer to North America customers,” she notes.

Coates cites as well the import tariff benefits that are available. “Goods coming into the U.S. directly from China are subject to a 25 percent tariff,” she explained. “Manufacturing products in Mexico, with Mexican parts and labor, may qualify for duty-free importation under the USMCA Trade Agreement amounting to a 25 percent savings over Chinese imports.”

It’s all part of the decision-making process executives are going through today, thinking first about strategy and risk, how to avoid or minimize risk, identifying the costs, and understanding the tradeoffs.

A key factor to consider is once you make the decision to expand sourcing or manufacturing in Mexico, what should you look for in a cross-border transportation partner?

“What countless Mexico shippers realized beginning in 2020 was the criticality of partnering with a diversified cross-border partner,” said Jason Dekker, Director of International Business Development at CFI. “There was severe imbalance and virtually no additional outbound capacity in major manufacturing markets such as Puebla, Guadalajara and Monterrey,” he added. CFI has major operations at five key U.S.-Mexico cross-border gateways, including its largest facility in Laredo. The company also has relationships with over 190 C-TPAT-certified carriers in Mexico.

Dekker commented that, in some cases, asset providers would stage Mexican loads at their yards in Laredo and take as long as a week to source the internal power to deliver them to their final destination in the U.S. interior. The effect was crippling the supply chain.

“Customers were desperate,” Dekker says. “Large multinational firms that previously held the word “broker” in the same regard as an expletive were clamoring for any option that got their freight moved.” By offering brokerage and power-only solutions, CFI Logistica was able to provide solutions when the asset division was completely blown out. Such solutions simply would not have been possible with a traditional asset-only provider.

While the northbound capacity situation is no longer at the crisis point it was in 2020 and 2021, as reshoring continues to increase, that will provide tailwinds that will help strengthen the cross-border freight market. That points to the importance of having an experienced, reliable, and well-resourced transportation provider, with proven assets and capabilities in Mexico and the U.S. to ensure consistent supply chain flows.

“It doesn’t take much in these major Mexican markets to seize up capacity. Having a diversified provider that is hyper-focused on bringing a variety of trucking and distribution solutions is the key to supply chain stability in a growing freight market.”

wind Environmental hyperion

Ship & Shore Environmental Helps Enhance Manufacturing Sustainability in Overburdened Supply Chains

Global supply chains remain under pressure even as consumer demand continues to rise. All industries are working through supply challenges to meet this demand while maintaining or even improving on “green” sustainability efforts. Packagers are critical in such pursuits. Whether glass, cardboard, aluminum, or other materials, packaging plays a role throughout every supply chain. Improve emissions with packaging manufacture, and the positive impacts ripple outward to all downstream users, “greening” the entire supply chain. Ship & Shore Environmental (S&SE), a multinational environmental pollution abatement and energy solutions firm, offers guidance and platforms for packagers and other supply chain organizations in need of meeting urgent market demand without adding to environmental, logistical, and regulatory concerns.

Managing Packaging’s Impact

When improperly managed, packaging can be an egregious contributor to that supply chain environmental waste. Wastes from plastics are commonly cited, but aluminum production can yield greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxide, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Paper and paperboard manufacturing create carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds.

S&SE creates a broad line of abatement solutions that allow packaging manufacturers to mitigate the hazardous waste from these processes. Among several similar examples, two organizations that recently deployed S&SE solutions include:

·     A century-old industry leader in film conversion and the production of flexible packaging. The manufacturer’s clients span the food, snack, pet care, household, and health and beauty industries. Processes are highly chemical-intensive, involving polypropylene as well as metalizing, cold seal applications, and 10-color conventional and “extended gamut” flexographic printing.

·     A subsidiary of a large flexographic printing and packaging company that specializes in security packaging systems. The firm services clients across diverse industries including e-commerce, pharmaceutical, banking, armored carriers, retail, restaurant delivery, law enforcement, duty-free/air travel, healthcare, laboratories, and cannabis.

Both manufacturers play large roles in world-scale supply chains, even though those chains address disparate market segments. In each case, the manufacturer addressed greenhouse gas emission abatement in its manufacturing line with energy-efficient S&SE regenerative thermal oxidizer (RTO) systems.

Keeping Supply Chains Sustainable

Sustainability remains a critical issue for all nations and the world’s future health. Air pollution inflicts widely understood harm on people and environments alike. As noted in the environmental conference paper “Pollution and its Impact on Sustainable Development,” pollution contributes to declines in agricultural and animal production, declines in labor productivity (due to worker suffering), and high costs associated with social and economic fallout from dealing with pollution, which in turn draws funds away from R&D and potential industrial advances.

In short, unchecked pollution hurts people as much as industries. Conversely, companies that take sustainability seriously tend to reap ROI benefits. The McKinsey study offers the example of British retailer Marks and Spencer, which “generated £145 million in net benefits in 2013–14.”

As noted above, cleaning up packaging emissions can yield outsized sustainability benefits that can aid the efforts and reporting of downstream users in the supply chain. This is especially fortunate as increasing numbers of companies are demanding that their supply chains meet governmental sustainability laws, such as California’s 2006 Toxics in Manufacturing Prevention Act. S&SE dedicates many resources to staying abreast of such regulations around the world and counseling both companies and governments on how to integrate pollution abatement into their efforts. Some of that counseling results in systems deployment; all of it results in more informed decision makers taking an ever more influential role in shaping the livability of our planet.

About Ship & Shore Environmental, Inc.

Ship & Shore Environmental, Inc. is a Long Beach, California-based, woman-owned, certified business specializing in air pollution capture and control systems for industrial applications. Ship & Shore helps major manufacturers meet Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) abatement challenges by providing customized, energy efficient air pollution abatement systems for various industries, resulting in improved operational efficiency and tailored “green” solutions. Since 2000, Ship & Shore has been prepared to handle and advise on the full spectrum of environmental needs with its complete array of engineering and manufacturing capabilities and global offices around the U.S., Canada, Europe, Middle East, and China. The Ship & Shore Technical Engineering Team has custom designed tailored solutions for clients throughout the world.

global trade import handling

What The First Half of 2022 Tells Us About Global Trade for the Future

So far, 2022 has shown that predicting global trade flows is harder than ever. Many of the predictions of the past year in terms of the economy and global trade have not transpired. Ports and related-inland logistics are still congested, and a number of factors continue to impact the reliability of global supply chains. High inflation and the Russian invasion threaten to depress the economy and ultimately global trade but have not yet made their impact fully felt. Here is a recap of key figures and events from the first half of 2022 that are contributing to a challenging second half of the year for global trade.

Volume. In early 2021, there were many predictions that global trade would slow after peak season and return to “normal” in 2022. Well, 2021 U.S. container import volume did not slow down and, in fact, was the biggest year ever—and then 2022 came along with volumes that have topped 2021 in every month so far (see Figure 1) despite calls for significant contraction and collapsing rates that didn’t materialize in the second quarter. Import volumes in the first half of 2022 are 4.9% higher than the same period in 2021. Pre-pandemic, the U.S. had a strained logistics infrastructure ,and the first half of 2022 shows 28.3% greater volumes than in 2019. Clearly, the significant increases in container import volumes have
continued to overwhelm the ports and related inland infrastructure. As long as U.S. monthly imports remain above 2.4 million containers, global supply chains will continue to experience congestion and
delays.

Figure 1: First Half Year U. S. Container Import Volumes

Source: Descartes Datamyne

With the delays the large West Coast ports were experiencing in 2021, importers began to shift some of the volume to East and Gulf Coast ports. In the first half of 2022, there was progress in reducing port delay times, especially for the West Coast Ports; however, with increased container volumes, East and Gulf Coast ports are not experiencing as much decrease in wait times (see Figure 2). In addition, the number of ships waiting at sea has dramatically increased again. According to MarineTraffic, in June 2022, the number of ships waiting to enter all U.S. ports combined increased by 36% to 125, with more than 64% of them sitting off East and Gulf Coast ports.

Figure 2: Port Wait Times 1H 2022

Source: Descartes Datamyne

Despite the highly publicized COVID-related lockdowns in China and in particular Shanghai, goods continued to flow from the country to the U.S. (see Figure 3). January 2022 was the peak of container volume imports at 991,373 TEUs while April 2022 was lower by only 7.7% when the lockdowns were in full effect. Expectations of a big surge of containers from China once the country fully emerged from lockdowns hasn’t happened so far and may be mitigated by the redirection of containers to open Chinese ports during the lockdowns.

Figure 3: 1H 2022 U.S. Imports from China

Economy. Consumer demand and a strong economy, the prime drivers of increased container imports, remained high in the first half of 2022. Consumer demand defied numerous predictions of a slowing economy or even recession. Unemployment for the last four months of the first half of 2022 was a steady 3.6%, which is 0.1% away from an all-time, non-war year low according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In addition, consumer spending on durable goods also remained high over the first half of the year. Growing inflation throughout the first half of 2022 (up 9.1% since June 2021) and a rising U.S. dollar compared to foreign currencies were potential economic dampening factors in the first half of 2022 that could come into play during the second half.

A substantial contributor to high inflation was energy/fuel costs, which were trending higher at the beginning of 2022 and then accelerated with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in late February. The conflict-related sanctions, even if there is cessation of hostilities, are likely to remain in place and keep energy/fuel costs high for the future. One note, with exceptions for Ukraine and Russian exports, the Russian invasion has not significantly impacted global trade flow into the U.S.

Labor. Competition from all facets of the economy and continued high consumer demand for goods has made hiring logistics workers a challenge in the first half of 2022. It’s not that there hasn’t been a concerted effort as, per the BLS, the number of employed warehouse and driver workers has risen by 759,000 since the start of the pandemic. Instead, the sheer increase in contain import volume of 28.3% for the same period has outstripped the industry’s ability to keep up with the demand for more workers.

Labor unrest in the U.S. and abroad increases the potential risk for disrupted supply chains in the second half of 2022. The highly watched International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) contract negotiations that were anticipated to be addressed before the current contract expired on July 1 did not happen. Negotiations continue and there have not been any slowdowns or stoppages related to them.

However, another labor issue is compounding disruptions in California. Drayage owner-operators are protesting the refusal of the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the case challenging California law AB5, which would make them employees of carriers contracting the moves. The result has been a dray driver work stoppage at the Port of Oakland where ILWU workers refused to cross the picket line—the combination essentially shutting down the Port of Oakland. Internationally, work stoppages at major German ports due to ongoing contract negotiations threatens U.S imports from one of the top global exporters.

Pandemic. The rapidly mutating coronavirus continues to disrupt global supply chains. The most obvious example is the lockdowns in China; however, variants have rolled through other countries, like Vietnam where it significantly impacted the flow of goods out of that country. What have we learned about the coronavirus in 2022? It is mutating faster than our vaccines can control it, some regionally produced vaccines are not as effective as the North American and European versions, and country policies concerning the coronavirus are as much a consideration as the virus itself.

The first half of 2022 was as much about what didn’t happen in global trade and why it is hard to predict  if there will be less congestion and disruption for the rest of the year. The U.S. economy and container imports didn’t slow down. As a result, U.S. ports and related logistics infrastructure struggled to keep pace with the volume of imports despite some of the volume shifting from the West to East Coast ports.

The ILWU contract didn’t get settled and the coronavirus didn’t fade away. The potential for labor disputes and continued waves of COVID to negatively impact the flow of goods into the U.S. in the
second half of 2022 remains large. Until we see measurable changes in consumer demand and related container import volumes, and a reduction in some of the other disruptive factors, global supply chain and logistics professionals should treat the second half of 2022 with as much care and skepticism as the first half.

FTZ The Port of Melbourne has announced major investments to expand terminal operations at Webb Dock East.

Foreign Trade Zones, Bonded Warehouses and Free Trade Agreements: Lowering Your “Landed Costs”

Foreign Trade Zones

FTZ’s have been an excellent source for lowering “landed costs” in face of increasing freight costs and long delays in the global supply chain, over the last two years due to the Pandemic and that impact which is now lasting well into 2022.

The primary reasons for considering FTZ’s in your global supply chain are:
– Ease of moving freight to and from the borders between trading           countries
– Reduction or elimination of duties, taxes and other import/export       costs
– Financial incentives on a local level
– Lowers the “landed costs” in your import/export business model
– Provides financial incentives that translates to lower operating             costs in your import and export transactions

There are other advantages that may be unique to geographic location and industry verticals.

The automotive industry which is dominated by foreign competition has been one of the major industry verticals to capitalize on FTZ’s here in the United States, as well as many countries abroad.

The basic FTZ model allows a company to manufacture or assemble finished products in a country abroad utilizing local labor for the specific purpose of reducing landed cost.

For example, a German car manufacturer sells a car in the U.S. for $50,000. Duties and taxes can add another $1500 to the landed cost.

Through the utilization of a FTZ strategically placed here in the United States. That German car manufacturer could import parts from Germany and utilize U.S labor to work in their U.S. factory.

Upon entry into the U.S. FTZ, duties and taxes on the parts are deferred. Upon assembly completion, the car leaves the FTZ for ultimate sale and that is when the deferred portion of the tax and duties are paid. If labor costs make up 50% of the $50,000 value, … only $25,000 is applicable to duty and tax.

This model (simplified by design for this article) reduces the “landed cost” by approximately $750.00 per vehicle. Compare this against 200,000 units and the savings could amount to over $150,000,000.00 annually.

There are numerous other benefits to FTZ’s that would need to be considered in any business model assessment.

In the above FTZ model, the utilization is assembly and manufacturing. More recent options allow high volume importers to have their goods pass through FTZ’s as they transit from the gateway through to their warehouses and distribution facilities.

This step allows a “weekly manifest clearance” which reduces entry fees and Merchandise Processing Fees (MPF) creating a significant financial savings impacting landed cost.

Consulting companies can help companies assess the benefits of an FTZ and weigh them against the costs and challenges to make it happen.

Bonded Warehouses

Another option, similar to but different from a FTZ is the “Bonded Warehouse”. Bonded warehouses are a supply chain option which allows importers and exporters to temporarily hold freight where the import is deferred along with duties, taxes and other import costs, until such time the goods enter the country or are exported from that country.

For example, let’s take a Cleveland based electronics distributor importing consumer music products from Asia, totaling over 200m annually with an average duty rate of 4.5 %. Approximately 20% of the products are then re-exported to Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America.

Under their current supply chain model, they utilize CBP’s drawback program to obtain up to 99% of the duties and taxes for those exports, totaling 1.8m annually. While drawback is a great program, it can be arduous and costly to manage and takes time to receive the refund of duties.

As an alternative, the distributor can apply to CBP to make their warehousing facility a bonded location. This will defer the duties and taxes to goods entering the warehouse to the point in time they are extracted from the facility.

Additionally, the 20% of the goods that are re-exported come in and leave the USA in bond and no duties or taxes are obligated to be paid providing significant savings in supply chain costs.

Bonded warehouses provide additional benefits, but the operations permitted in a bonded warehouse are limited so sorting, weighing and repacking. If the goods enter the warehouse as a widget, they must leave as a widget.

For Bonded versus FTZ … four steps must be completed to decide which may present the best option to the principal company.

These four steps allow a detailed assessment of the options, the benefits and challenges, a ROI, an operational overview … followed by implementation.

The process can take from 60-180 Days and will have costs involved in all the steps that are typically outweighed from the residual and ongoing financial benefits.

Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s)

FTA’s offer numerous advantages to both importers and exporters. Currently the U.S. participates in over thirteen agreements with numerous ones pending. The most well-known FTA is USMCA (Previously called NAFTA), which has consistently provided overwhelming ROI to Canada, Mexico and the United States.

When the three participating countries … USA, Canada and Mexico trade with one another there is a serious reduction of duties and taxes on qualified goods and merchandise.

The most advantageous benefit in the FTA’s is the free movement of goods between participating countries where duties and taxes are reduced or eliminated.

“Near Sourcing” is the recent phenomenon in global trade where trade is coming back to the USA or our USMCA partners. FTA’s provide a more level playing field, particularly against lower Asian based sourcing models.

Lower freight costs, reduced lead times and elimination of duties and taxes can very easily make manufacturing in Mexico or in a USA based FTZ … a much more competitive option, thereby leveraging critical logistics business model options.

Mexico enjoys a “Maquiladora Program” which greatly enhances USMCA benefits where manufacturing and assembly is done in Mexico for goods which will eventually be shipped to the USA.

Other countries such as but not limited to:

Australia                                                     Bahrain

Canada                                                        Chile
Colombia                                                   Costa Rica
Dominican  Republic                           El Salvador
Guatemala                                                Honduras
Israel                                                            Jordan
Korea                                                           Mexico
Morocco                                                    Nicaragua
Oman                                                          Panama
Peru                                                             Singapore

When searching out trading partners as sourcing or selling options … Free Trade Agreement Countries can provide competitive advantage to the buyers and sellers.

As political problems increase with China and disruptions in trade happen now with what we have with Russia … it makes the case for American Companies to buy and sell from trading partners where there are more favorable and sustainable working environments … and that can be leveraged to each party’s advantage.

economic mapping Global supply strains that started to ease in early 2022 are worsening again as headwinds strengthen from the war in Ukraine and China’s economy

Global Supply Lines Brace for Economic Storm to Widen

Global supply strains that started to ease in early 2022 are worsening again as headwinds strengthen from the war in Ukraine and China’s COVID lockdowns, threatening slower growth and faster inflation across the global economy.

After the pandemic hit Asia-U.S. trade routes the hardest over the past two years, the latest turmoil is being acutely felt in Germany, which is heavily reliant on Russian energy and suppliers across Eastern Europe. Business expectations in the region’s biggest economy during March posted the steepest one-month drop on record, factories across the continent face diesel and parts shortages, and delays moving cargo through key North Sea gateways such as Bremerhaven are lengthening.

“We thought Russia was just a resources story that was going to push energy prices up — that it would make supply chains more expensive but it wouldn’t disrupt them,” said Vincent Stamer, a trade economist with Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy. “It appears a little more threatening than we initially anticipated.”

On top of the wartime setbacks, omicron outbreaks are widening China’s use of strict lockdowns in major trade hubs, the latest in Shanghai. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s No. 2 container carrier, said March 28 that some depots serving local ports have closed indefinitely, and trucking to and from terminals will be “severely impacted.”

Chinese exports were already tailing off from an October peak — a trend that might continue for the next few months if Beijing maintains the hard line on fighting the virus, Stamer said. That’ll add shipping delays, sourcing problems and costs for businesses from the U.S. to Europe.

According to supply constraint indexes developed by Bloomberg Economics, pressures in the U.S. and Europe intensified in February after several months of improvement. Anecdotal evidence through March suggests the strains won’t abate.

Stamer cited the example of electric wire assemblies made in Ukraine for German automakers. “These cable trees are actually custom-made for individual cars” and aren’t easily or cheaply sourced from other countries, he said. Another rare input that’s suddenly even more scarce is neon gas used in semiconductor production. Ukraine produces 50% of the world’s purified neon, Stamer said. Russia’s output of raw materials extends even deeper into the global economy.

More than 2,100 U.S. firms and 1,200 in Europe have at least one direct supplier in Russia, and the total reaches 300,000 when indirect suppliers are included, according to Arlington, Va.-based Interos, a supply chain risk management company.

“Multiple industries are reliant on the same raw materials and a large percentage of them are coming out of Russia,” Interos CEO Jennifer Bisceglie said. “You’re seeing a massive cascading effect on an already limping system of the global supply chain.”

The economic and political stakes are far more consequential than the developed world’s biggest worry in 2021 — the concern that slammed global logistics would spoil Christmas for retailers and consumers.

Fears are now rising about food shortages. The cost of living is rising in rich and poor regions alike. Soaring energy prices are spawning street protests from Albania to the U.K.

Costly, longer-term shifts are accelerating, too: Goldman Sachs economists say the new geopolitical risks are forcing companies to reinforce their operations against global disruptions through reshoring, diversification and overstocking inventories.

“At the moment, the storm clouds on the horizon look quite menacing,” Citigroup Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets said in a research note March 25, explaining why “a major adverse supply shock” from the Russia-Ukraine conflict led the bank to cut its outlook for world GDP growth this year and increase its inflation projections. “Bottom line, an already complicated picture has become even more complex.”

Trade is already feeling the sting of sanctions on Moscow and blocked transport routes. According to FourKites Inc., a supply chain visibility platform, Russian imports across all modes of freight transportation dropped 62% over the first month of the conflict, while shipments into Ukraine plunged 97%.

Though Russia accounts for 5% of the world’s seaborne trade and Ukraine just 1%, a heightened risk of a global economic slowdown has emerged.

Economists at Barclays on March 28 said the world is entering a new era of higher volatility for growth and inflation. Allianz Research on March 25 warned of a greater risk of a “double whammy” in world trade — lower volumes and higher prices — in 2022. Clarksons Research, a shipping analytics firm in London, last week trimmed its projections for global trade this year and next, saying its port congestion indexes are rising again and the latest shocks are “amplifying an already disrupted maritime transport system.”

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the German ports of Hamburg and Bremerhaven saw new highs in ship congestion this month, while Rotterdam, the continent’s busiest gateway for container traffic, saw its vessel backup at the start of the month reach an 11-month high.

The snarls make any return to normal unlikely this year unless demand unexpectedly craters. Ocean shipping, the workhorse for some 80% of global trade, was stretched so thin that the spot rate to send a 40-foot container of goods to the U.S. from Asia averaged more than $10,000 in the second half of last year — about seven times higher than the pre-pandemic level. Those rates have come down in recent weeks, but experts say the reprieve probably reflects a seasonal lull before transport demand and costs pick up again.

“It’s going to get worse as we move through the second half of this year and into peak season,” Mark Manduca, the chief investment officer of GXO Logistics, told Bloomberg Television on March 25. “You don’t initially feel the pinch in the first few weeks of a supply chain shortage — people have inventories.”

Even greater than the risks Russia’s war in Ukraine pose to global supply fluidity are the COVID-19 cases and targeted lockdowns in China, according to economists Ana Boata and Françoise Huang at Euler Hermes, a unit of Allianz Group. They see a risk that container freight prices approach or even exceed their previous peaks, before returning to current levels by year end.

“Overall, even if not returning to the peaks of 2021, the cost and congestion levels of global supply chains are likely to remain high for most of 2022,” Boata and Huang wrote in an email. “The normalization may start more visibly only from 2023.”

Trying to anticipate how two years of supply constraints affect consumer prices has already challenged central bankers, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell saying at a press conference earlier this month that Russia’s isolation from the world economy is “going to mean more tangled supply chains, so that could actually push out the relief we were expecting.”

Some of that relief was reflected in the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, a gauge launched in January that most recently showed some easing from peak strains late last year. While it’s too soon for the New York Fed to quantify any wartime effects, there are signs that the index’s recent improvement will be limited.

“There’s been a decrease in the pressure, but the level of the pressure is still very high. It’s an improvement but it doesn’t mean the problems are resolved,” New York Fed economist Gianluca Benigno said about the direction of the index in its latest update in early March. “Anecdotal evidence suggests there might be further pressure ahead.”

supply chains

China’s Supply Chain Slows Down as Global Trade Shows Resilience

One of the biggest economic hits of the COVID-19 pandemic was the complete disruption of the global supply chain. With entire economies shut down as lockdowns spread worldwide, global trade activity screeched to a halt, and the supply chain has yet to recover fully. 

Lockdowns in China, which affected many major industrial and manufacturing regions, caused trade activity to fall by 50% in the first months of the pandemic. With factories closed, massive shortages of crucial components like computer chips rippled throughout industries across the globe. Problems with staffing at major ports, along with a spate of severe weather issues, further compounded the supply chain crisis.

Because China enforced a very stringent zero-Covid lockdown policy early on in the pandemic, it was one of the first to recover. However, a new report suggests that the Omicron variant is once again straining the supply chain in China. New lockdowns are in place, and no matter how brief they may be, they will certainly cause further disruptions for companies still struggling to refill their depleted warehouses. Unfortunately, this is happening just as the rest of the world sees restricted supply chains recover. 

Zero-COVID policies create negative trade activity

Much focus on China in recent months has been on trade bans arising from China’s treatment of the Uyghur ethnic minority population and the country’s shifting approaches to dealing with public blockchains and cryptocurrency. But another very significant issue has been building in the background. Namely, a new round of infections is making China’s zero-COVID policy kick in, confining millions to their homes and shutting down large manufacturing facilities.

It is worth briefly reviewing China’s policy and how it affected the global supply chain in 2020. Early on in the pandemic, China initiated its zero-COVID policy. Within two weeks of the first death in China, the government began shutting down large cities across Hubei province, including Wuhan, the epicenter of the pandemic. The scale of the action was so large that the World Health Organization called it “unprecedented in public health history.”

The first services affected were public transportation – bus and train stations, airports, and major highways leading into and out of Hubei province all closed. Soon residents were confined into their homes, with only a single household member allowed to leave the house every two days to get essentials, such as groceries or medicine.

According to numbers the Chinese government reported, the zero-COVID policy was remarkably effective. Despite having a population of over 1.4 billion, China recorded fewer than 100,000 cases and 5,000 deaths in the first year of the pandemic (compared to 27 million cases and 370,000 deaths in the United States over the same period). Indeed, China’s policies were so effective that it ranks 120th in total cases out of 225 countries and regions reporting data and 84th in total deaths.

However, the zero-COVID policy also had a significant negative effect, both for China and the rest of the world. Indeed, what came next started a chain reaction that battered industries worldwide. 

Three weeks after the lockdown began, China shut down all non-essential industries in Hubei, including non-essential manufacturing. Chinese trade activity soon plummeted, losing almost 50% in a single month. 

Unfortunately, Hubei was and is a major manufacturing center in China, supplying steel, display screens, and automobiles. But perhaps Hubei’s most significant product is computer chips which are a critical component in many other products. So as Chinese supply dried up, other companies soon found themselves unable to fill orders creating a spiral of declining supply despite growing demand from consumers who were filling their time at home by shopping online.

The supply chain stabilizes throughout 2021

After falling drastically in 2020, trade activity rebounded quickly. China, in particular, regained its footing swiftly, seeing significant activity gains by the end of 2020, although it still had issues with transport. Everyone else fared less well, with growth just beginning to reassert itself around the fall of 2020, right before a new wave of COVID hit, causing further lockdowns.

The past year saw the supply chain stabilize for many countries as businesses had proper strategies in place and trade activity began to recover. According to Tradeshift’s recent Index of Global Trade Health, many regions were edging towards pre-pandemic activity levels, with the United States experiencing a surge that put it well in front of its earlier numbers. The Euro Zone remained below pre-pandemic levels but was clawing its way back.

Figure 1: Global trade activity 2020-2021

(courtesy of Tradeshift Index of Global Trade Health Q4 2021)

However, at the end of 2021, more bad news arrived in the form of the Omicron variant. Its effects would be felt quickly. But would the lessons learned throughout the early stages of the pandemic help prevent another meltdown?

New lockdowns in China create new disruptions

In 2021, China nearly met its zero-COVID goals, with only around 10,000 infections and two deaths through to the end of November. However, in December, things began to change. The far more transmissible Omicron variant began to take hold, and within two months, China had more new cases than it had seen in the previous year. Not surprisingly, they responded by once again initiating strict lockdowns in the Zhejiang, Henan, and Shaanxi (Xi’an) provinces, again major Chinese industrial centers.

The effects are already visible and pronounced. According to Tradeshift’s report, Chinese trade activity declined 10% in Q4 2021, marking the lowest activity level since the onset of the pandemic. Given how badly Chinese supply chain issues affected the rest of the world in 2021, there is naturally concern that the current Chinese downturn will spread rapidly. Fortunately, there are some signs that the rest of the world may be better able to handle the downstream issues this time.

What does the rest of 2022 hold?

There seems to be good reason to believe that the supply chain issues that arose following China’s initial lockdowns are finally easing in a meaningful way. But the rise of the Omicron variant, the uncertainty surrounding potential new variants, and the new spate of lockdowns in China are leaving many uneasy. 

Tradeshift’s founder and CEO, Christian Lanng, is one of those who is holding his breath about the next few quarters. Indeed, he believes everyone should be working now to build more robustness into the supply chain, reinforcing its ability to withstand large-scale disturbances. He predicts:

“At some point in the next 12 months, an event will unleash disruption that will once again test the resilience of global supply chains. Experts now expect a major shock to hit supply chains once every 3.7 years. Heading into the third year of a global pandemic, our index suggests businesses have learned a number of lessons which are enabling them to become better problem solvers in the face of fresh challenges.”

So the bad news is that we are not out of the woods quite yet. But the good news is that we have become much better at finding our way out quickly and with as few scratches as possible.

air

AIR PLAN MODE: REACT, ADAPT AND COLLABORATE TO MOVE FREIGHT BY PLANE

When we think of the “future” in terms of the global supply chain, advanced technology and new forms of disruption are usually among the things international shippers are most concerned about. With 2021 at its end, the “future” is right around the corner. Meaning, what supply chain players do now (and what has been done thus far) will inevitably impact 2022 and beyond, and the more one understands this market’s evolving patterns, the more successful they will be in managing what is to come. 

Throughout the past year, the air freight market has seen various shifts, particularly with global capacity constraints, remnants from pandemic-driven disruptions, and an overall increase in demand. To fully understand the future of air freight, we must look at the big picture. To do this, BDP International’s VP of Global Airfreight, Patrick Olyhoeck, shares what global shippers can do to navigate 2022. 

The first shift is perspective. 

“Industry players can be more proactive by learning to fully understand industry challenges from a customer’s perspective to help them collaboratively overcome challenges,” Olyhoeck says. “The industry is impacted by factors including COVID-19 recoveries… and fundamentally, proactivity can only come from understanding key market challenges, thinking forward and engaging across stakeholders to find future solutions.”

He shares the following shifts are among the most significant currently being felt across the market:

-Impacts on capacity due to lower passenger numbers

-Impacts from the re-balancing of trade relations

-Impacts from the knock-on effect of capacity needs from ocean to air 

-National level challenges including HGV drivers in the UK impacting final the distribution of air cargo

Despite these shifts, in addition to the ones not yet seen or felt by the market, it is quite clear that some challenges are here to stay–pandemic or no pandemic.

“The basics of the market did not change,” Olyhoeck says. “Compare it with a soccer game, two decades ago. The speed of today’s game is enormous with real athletes on the pitch but still, you need to score to win the game–this is equal to our industry. Although regulations and customer needs are changing, we still move air cargo from A to B. The nature of air cargo remains focused on speed and safety to justify the choice.”

In addition to the evergreen nature of regulations and customer needs, Olyhoeck stated that global capacity constraints are expected to be felt for at least another season, and the key to managing this can be found in verticalization strategies. Limiting transport methods not only hurts your business but can be felt by your customer base as well. Maintaining reliable, transparent customer relationships is more critical now than ever before to remain competitive.

“Verticalization is the way to move forward where expertise and experience meet,” Olyhoeck says. “Digitalization will play a significant role. It is necessary to control your capacity to meet your customer expectations throughout the supply chain and therefore not limited to the airport-to-airport move only. From a company view, we need to stay resilient, embrace technology and keep pace with innovations in close relations with our customers.”

Streamlining information with the help of technology is a considerable factor that separates the good from the great. We live in a world where having the latest technology no longer cuts it. A shipper’s competitive advantage is not found in the kind of technology used for customer needs but more of what data is provided through technology to better understand, predict and manage customer needs. 

“We need not only to embrace technology but also accelerate the exchange of data as the impact is significant,” Olyhoeck adds. “Currently, too many stakeholders operate different systems with diverse needs. The use of digital pricing and booking platforms will help to increase efficiency and improve turnaround time, and it does get the attention from the shipper playing field to serve them with their best interest in mind.”

Collaboration is key and gathering the right data will further streamline processes to success. BDP manages its customer needs through the utilization of technology platforms that provide relevant, timely, and critical information. Combining the best of both technical capabilities and data, customers can rely on this approach to share the information needed to overcome market shifts. 

“BDP technology forms a fundamental part of how we manage complex, high care, dynamic supply-chains through both normal and abnormal market conditions,” Olyhoeck says. “We invest in platforms to provide insight into data integration and aggregation, platforms which support communication and exception management, and platforms that automate and simplify processes to help manage complexity and streamline our communications with customers. Our customers and partners are kept informed every step of the way in critical journeys.”

Even more significant is the need for more attention to budgeting and forecasting in the air cargo sector. According to Statista, 2021 will end with an expected 63.1 million tons of freight carried globally.

“Unfortunately, forecasting is underexposed,” Olyhoeck shares. “As in various industries, the budget and forecast for shipping pure air cargo is zero, but shippers still end up shipping millions of kilograms by air each year.” 

So, is there such a thing as a formula shippers can rely on for the future of the industry? Simply put, yes. But without key components of communication, technology and data, customer relationships and operations are projected for complications. 

“Energized teams supported by the latest technologies plugged in and managing global networks is not new to the industry,” Olyhoeck notes. “The chaos brought on from the pandemic, within the ocean markets impacting air, shows that having teams that can react, adapt, collaborate and solve using insight and intellect many times outstrips the technical component of competition.”

Simply put, modern market relationships and collaborations cannot be compromised. As Bob Hooey once said, “If you are not taking care of your customers, your competitor will.”

________________________________________________________________

Patrick Olyhoeck has more than 20 years of experience in the logistics sector. Having joined BDP in 2009, he filled local and regional positions before recently being promoted to vice president, Global Airfreight. In this role, he is responsible for one of the strategic key contacts for the international airline industry and the evolvement of offering premium global supply chain transportation service to a wide range of valued customers through the designed Global Consolidation Model. He can be reached at patrick.olyhoeck@bdpint.com.