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Week Two in Trade – First 100 Days of the New Administration

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Week Two in Trade – First 100 Days of the New Administration

The week started off with President Trump threatening to put tariffs on Colombian goods entering into the United States. The tariffs were used as leverage against the Colombian government who initially refused to allow U.S. military planes carrying individuals deported from the United States to land in Colombia. Eventually, the United States and Colombia came to an agreement on how deported individuals would be transported to Colombia and no tariffs were imposed. While President Trump did not follow through on his threats to impose tariffs on Colombian goods, he maintained his stance on imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China to take effect as early as February 1st and announced at a press conference on January 30th that the announcement was imminent and would be made over the weekend. Husch Blackwell’s International Trade and Supply Chain Team is monitoring this situation closely, however, there are not specific orders or proclamations confirming that this is more than a threat at the time of the posting of this trade update.

Read also: America First: President Trump’s First Week in Trade

 In a Press Briefing on January 28th, Press Secretary Leavitt also confirmed that President Trump is considering sectoral tariffs on certain sectors like pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, steel, aluminum, and copper. However, President Trump has not yet taken action to implement any of these tariffs.

Based on the first two weeks, it appears President Trump will use tariffs as a tool to pursue his foreign policy agenda and tariffs may replace sanctions to a certain extent.

Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duty Changes

The antidumping and countervailing duty provisions in the America First memorandum were heavily debated this week. Of particular interest was the provision regarding “transnational subsidies, cost adjustments, affiliations, and ‘zeroing.’”  Zeroing is a concept where antidumping margins are calculated by disregarding those sales where there is no margin and only accounting for sales where margins are positive.  Zeroing was considered a violation of the WTO almost 20 years ago and the Department of Commerce which conducts these trade remedy investigations has utilized alternative margin analyses to calculate dumping margins since the mid-2000s. If the concept of zeroing is reinstated it may result in higher antidumping duty rates for exporters of goods to the United States because the margin calculation only relies on positive margins and does not provide the margin reducing benefit of factoring zero or negative margin transactions which bring the average antidumping duty margin down.  These proposals are still in discussions as many of these concepts would require revisions to the existing regulations governing the conduct of these proceedings.

Congressional Trade Actions

Over the last two weeks, Congress has also been focused on trade issues including reintroducing the de minimis bill for Section 301 goods and the Reciprocal Trade Act. The de minimis bill, reintroduced by Representative Murphy from North Carolina would prohibit the use of de minimis entry for imports that include products subject to Section 301 tariffs.

The Reciprocal Trade Act, introduced by Representative Moore, would authorize the president to negotiate with other countries on issues like tariffs. The bill would also allow the president to impose tariffs on foreign countries equal to any tariffs on U.S. goods imposed by those countries.

global trade import tariff

Resilience in Uncertainty: How Businesses Can Prepare for Potential Tariffs

The possibility of new tariffs has reignited concerns for businesses reliant on global supply chains. While the scope and severity of these tariffs remain uncertain, the potential impact on costs, operations, and consumer prices underscores the importance of proactive preparation. Businesses that take proactive steps to anticipate and adapt to these changes will be better positioned to weather any disruptions.

Read also: Strike Concerns and Tariff Plans Drive Early Import Surge at U.S. Ports

Reflecting on the previous tariff cycles during the Trump administration, one critical lesson emerges: preparation is key. Diversification efforts, such as the “China plus one” strategy, offer means to manage risks tied to overreliance on single-country sourcing. Manufacturers, particularly in industries like apparel and automotive, began exploring alternatives in countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, and India. This trend has only accelerated in recent years, offering a valuable blueprint for companies facing renewed trade uncertainties.

However, supply chain diversification is just one part of the equation. To truly prepare for potential tariffs, businesses must embrace a broader set of strategies that combine scenario planning, inventory management, and automation investments.

Scenario Planning: Navigating the Unknown

Scenario planning is key to effective supply chain management, particularly in the face of uncertain policy changes. Companies must simulate a range of potential outcomes, from modest tariff increases to more extreme scenarios.

For example, a manufacturer might evaluate the financial and operational implications of a 10%, 25%, or even 60% tariff on specific product categories. By modeling these scenarios, businesses can identify cost-saving opportunities, adjust sourcing strategies, and avoid last-minute decision-making under pressure.

Inventory Strategies: Buying Time

Stockpiling inventory has also emerged as a common tactic for businesses bracing for potential tariffs. By building up inventory ahead of tariff implementation, companies can temporarily shield themselves from immediate cost increases. This approach provides breathing room to assess long-term adjustments, such as shifting suppliers or renegotiating contracts.

While stockpiling can be effective in the short term, it is not without risks. Excess inventory ties up capital and storage space and prolonged reliance on this strategy may lead to inefficiencies. As such, it should be viewed as a complementary measure rather than a standalone solution.

Automation: A Strategic Advantage

One of the most promising responses to tariff uncertainty is the adoption of advanced automation technologies. Automation enables businesses to improve operational efficiency, scale production, and adapt to changing cost structures.

Consider the example of a food manufacturer transitioning from a legacy facility to a highly automated production line. By investing in modern technologies, the company enhanced productivity and provided employees with opportunities to upskill, preparing them to operate advanced equipment. These improvements not only increased throughput but also allowed the business to offer more competitive wages, benefiting both the workforce and the organization. This also made the onshoring of production more practical.

Automation also aligns with broader sustainability goals by enabling more precise production planning and reducing waste. By leveraging data-driven insights, businesses can optimize operations to meet demand more accurately, minimizing overproduction and associated costs. This combination of efficiency and adaptability ensures that businesses are better equipped to navigate uncertain economic conditions while contributing to long-term sustainability.

Sustainability: A Silver Lining

Regionalized supply chains offer additional advantages beyond mitigating tariff risks. By sourcing and producing goods closer to their end markets, businesses can reduce transportation distances, cut carbon emissions, and improve responsiveness to consumer needs.

Fresh produce provides an excellent example of this dynamic. While products like apples can be sourced domestically in the U.S., tropical crops like avocados rely heavily on Mexican imports, making regional strategies critical for managing costs and ensuring availability. Similarly, shifts in manufacturing hubs can lead to shorter lead times and greater supply chain predictability. This not only enhances operational efficiency but also supports sustainability initiatives – an increasingly important factor for consumers and stakeholders alike. Even if subject to higher tariffs, these benefits cannot be overlooked for nearshoring locations such as Mexico.

Looking Ahead

Preparing for potential tariffs requires a proactive mindset and a willingness to invest in long-term strategies. Companies that embrace scenario planning, diversify their supply chains, and leverage automation will be well-equipped to navigate the challenges ahead.

At the same time, these measures offer opportunities for growth and innovation. By turning uncertainties into actionable insights, businesses can build more resilient operations that are better aligned with the evolving demands of the global marketplace.

AI logistics

Gather AI Becomes the Largest Autonomous Inventory Management Platform in the World

Gather AI, a provider of AI-powered autonomous inventory management solutions for warehouses using commodity hardware, announces today that it is acquiring the business of Ware, another large player in the market. With this acquisition, Gather AI is now the market leader in the space with 25 customers, more than any other autonomous inventory management company, and the technical platform best able to meet accelerating customer demand.

The global warehouse market is expected to grow at 7.7% CAGR and reach USD 1.26 trillion by 2030. Driving this growth are the global restructuring of manufacturing and logistics and a transition to online commerce. This strategic shift is causing a rapid overhaul of the supply chain with 71% percent of warehouses reporting that this is driving a change in the way they manage their inventory. To keep up with this restructuring, operators are accelerating their digital transformation.

Gather AI is transforming warehouse operations. With its solution, AI software enables drones to fly autonomously through warehouses to photograph inventory stored in pallet locations. AI reads bar codes, text, and other information in the images and automatically compares it with what’s in the warehouse management system (WMS). The warehouse manager can view inventory data in real time from a web dashboard and easily view their warehouse.

Gather AI has seen an 8x revenue growth in the last year. Customers have seen a tremendous benefit from the solution including a reduction in inventory counting staff from six to one, finding $1 million in lost inventory, reducing full facility scans from 90 days to 2.5 days, and boosting revenue with innovation and differentiation. Results like these helped Gather AI raise a $10 million Series A last year.

Customers will be integrated into the Gather AI platform in the coming weeks with the support of the combined Ware and Gather AI teams.

productivity supply chain 4.0 goods

Here’s What It Takes to Be Agile During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Despite the hindrances the pandemic put on it, the global beauty industry is worth an estimated $511 billion. That persistent growth continues despite an environment where global manufacturing has declined, traffic has piled up, and workforces have been slashed. While still thriving, beauty brands are just one of many industries left vulnerable to these disruptions — and this may be why you’re waiting months for an item to restock or why store shelves lay empty.

To be sure, most industry supply chain issues aren’t just pinned to one specific barrier. They’re a combination of factors, from ingredient sourcing and manufacturing to employment shortages and importing issues. Supply chain disruptions have impacted countless brands’ packaging and ingredient needs, resulting in companies having to scale back on new product launches, change their timelines, and alter their order quantities. In some cases, brands are running out of product and being forced to order much larger quantities than usual to ensure they’re fully stocked to meet customer demand.

Thus, supply chain management in every industry requires agility. Companies that plan accordingly and use fresh data to adjust their methods and procedures are the ones that will continue to thrive.

How Industry Supply Chain Challenges Impact Business Operations

The challenges faced by the cosmetics industry in the supply chain mirror those of just about every other industry and have the potential to be endless. Mismanaged supply chain and fulfillment issues impact business operations in a plethora of ways.

First is the obvious result — companies having too much or too little of the products they need. Then, there’s the aforementioned pushing back (or complete forgoing) of product launches due to delayed packaging or ingredient shipments caused by those backed-up supply chains.

Companies such as Meraki Organics Inc. had to list items as “sold out” on its website due to such ingredient shortages and packaging issues — not great timing, considering it was around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Peak selling seasons are integral for companies, so it’s extra important to plan during those times for any supply chain hiccups. A lack of proper preparation could seriously impact revenue in negative ways.

A way to properly plan ahead is to list out all materials needed to create and package your products. Keep a keen eye on the news to monitor supply chain issues so you can anticipate delays and shortages before they directly impact your company. For example, during peak Covid times, there was a shortage of glass bottles since they were in high demand for vaccine producers. This inadvertently affected many sustainable beauty brands that rely on glass for their products.

Supply Chain Strategies to Stay Ahead of the Curve

The industry supply chain can create many challenges for just about any business on earth. For companies to stand the test of time and thwart any curveballs thrown their way, they must have a comprehensive plan to deal with problematic supply chain issues. Here are three tips for leaders in all industries that rely on steady manufacturing and an efficient supply chain on how to do just that.

  1. Get proactive.

Track product sales and usage to forecast when you need to put in orders to restock. Sales cycles will vary across different companies, so it is important you track your company patterns closely so you can identify instances when you’ll likely require more product than usual.

To do this, choose a time frame that makes sense for your business. It could be over the course of a month, quarter or year. Then, choose what you will measure. Are your clients buying more skincare-related products or makeup? Are they buying moisturizer with sunscreen all year round or only during the sunny months?

As you are keeping tabs on your sales, simultaneously track factors that may be affecting your final conclusions, such as inflation on raw materials, internal changes, new competition in the market, etc. Tracking outside factors will give you a better grasp on what is affecting the purchases of your consumers and help you better forecast for the future.

Sales predictions can be a good indicator for investors when making important business decisions. It is always best to estimate your numbers conservatively — the old “underpromise and overdeliver” mantra. Keep in mind all the factors that can impact your products’ sales, such as industry competitors, economic variables, material issues, and overall market indicators.

  1. Work with a transparent contract manufacturer.

Companies are increasingly realizing the importance of tracing their products in the supply chain. This requires strong relationships with the manufacturing companies you work with. It is crucial that your CM be transparent with you about what is being delayed and for how long, as this is vital for your planning purposes.

Remember the two Ts: traceability and trust. When you have trust, you can trace — and thus you can plan appropriately when unavoidable delays arise.

  1. Have a backup plan.

If a product or collection can’t launch or will be delayed, it’s crucial to have a Plan B (or C) in place. You never know what issues might arise and catch you flat-footed when urgency is key.

Let’s say your CM is low on an essential ingredient. Make sure this partner has other vendors it works with so you have other options at your disposal. That way, if they run out of an ingredient, they can try to source it from elsewhere. Different products obviously require different technical skills from research and development and different machinery for production.

As company leaders, you must prepare for crises such as shortages and industry supply chain issues. Your ability to manage these supply chain issues not only helps your company stay afloat but it also further solidifies your reputation in a market where consumers are looking for reliable brands. Utilize these tips to give your brand breathing room when supply chain challenges inevitably affect your business.

Mark Wuttke is the Chief Growth Officer at Cosmetic Solutions Innovation Labs, a globally recognized contract manufacturer and innovation partner that offers the operational excellence of large-scale contract manufacturers with the proactive leadership and flexibility to help brands grow on their terms.

 

chloride

Canadian Potassium Chloride Exports Rise Due to Burgeoning Supplies to Asia

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Canada – Potassium Chloride (MOP) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Canada dominates the global exports of potassium chloride, providing 42% of its total volume. In 2020, Canadian potassium chloride exports grew by +8.8% y-o-y to 21M tonnes. The U.S., Brazil and China remain the key importers of Canadian potassium chloride. Last year, supplies to India, Indonesia and Brazil saw the most prominent growth rate among other trade partners. The average export price for Canadian potassium chloride dropped by -16.1% compared to the figures of the previous year. 

Potassium Chloride Exports from Canada

Canada remains the largest potassium chloride (MOP) exporter worldwide. The supplies from Canada account for 42% of the global potassium chloride exports.

Potassium chloride exports from Canada reached 21M tonnes in 2020, growing by +8.8% on 2019 figures. In value terms, potassium chloride exports dropped to $4.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

The U.S. (10M tonnes) was the main destination for potassium chloride exports from Canada, accounting for a 48% share of total exports. Moreover, supplies to the U.S. exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Brazil (3.4M tonnes), threefold. China (2.4M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 11% share.

In 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume to the U.S. stood at +3.8%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Brazil (+19.9% per year) and China (-3.6% per year).

Last year, supplies from Canada to India, Indonesia and Brazil saw the highest growth rate among other destinations. Exports to India grew by +40% y-o-y to 1.8M tonnes, while supplies to Indonesia and Brazil rose by +45% y-o-y to 1.3M tonnes and +20% y-o-y to 3.4M tonnes respectively.

In value terms, the U.S. ($2.2B) remains the key foreign market for potassium chloride exports from Canada, comprising 48% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Brazil ($698M), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by China, with an 11% share.

The average potassium chloride (MOP) export price stood at $212 per tonne in 2020, shrinking by -16.1% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the major foreign markets. In 2020, the destinations with the highest prices were the U.S. ($214 per tonne) and China ($214 per tonne), while the average prices for exports to India ($207 per tonne) and Brazil ($208 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the U.S., while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

GEODIS

Dispatches: GEP and GEODIS Make Big Moves

GEP wins the prestigious Asia Pacific Procurement Success Awards…

GEP, a Clark, New Jersey-based leading provider of supply chain software and services to Fortune 500 and Global 2000 enterprises worldwide, announced that it has won Asia’s prestigious Procurement Consultancy Project Award at the Asia Pacific Procurement Success Awards 2020, held recently in Shanghai.

“This award is an important acknowledgment of GEP’s ability to integrate consulting, managed services and technology to significantly improve the financial performance of global companies on a sustainable basis throughout Asia,” says Michael Seitz, vice president, GEP Consulting, China. “We are even more excited about the third year of this program, as we apply demand management, the total cost of ownership management, and strategic supplier partnerships to drive additional cost reduction, user satisfaction, and compliance for our client.” 


Meanwhile, GEODIS in Americas links 3PL Services with Amazon and Shopify… 

Geodis is a division of SNCF, which is based in France, but the Geodis in Americas is among the top 3PLs in the United States. The American subsidiary of Geodis recently announced two major marketplace integrations with Shopify and Amazon Drop Shipping. Geodis in Americas is now integrated directly with Shopify to fulfill online orders and ensure seamless data flow between Shopify’s digital storefront and supply chain. Geodis is also now fully integrated with Amazon’s third-party marketplace that enables brands to sell products through Amazon while continuing to utilize Geodis as its logistics partner to fulfill orders and ship directly to the end consumer.  

“As online shopping has accelerated, Geodis is constantly strengthening and evolving our IT solutions to provide the brands we serve with easy, efficient and effective ways to get their products to consumers,” says Pal Narayanan, executive vice president, chief information officer with Geodis in Americas.