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Escalating Middle East Tensions Trigger Projected Surge in War Risk Premiums and Freight Rates

baltimore import mach electronic shipping route import 7LFreight Expands Instant Cargo Pricing and Booking for North American Forwarders Across Both Air and Trucking  import container descartes automation baltimore bridge container freight global trade

Escalating Middle East Tensions Trigger Projected Surge in War Risk Premiums and Freight Rates

In a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Iran’s capture of the MSC Aries, a container ship linked to Israel, has reverberated throughout the maritime industry. This development, occurring prior to the missile attacks on Saturday, April 13, 2024, underscores the deepening conflict in the region. Believed to be in response to an Israeli raid on the Iranian consulate in Syria, the capture has heightened concerns about the security of key trade routes and the stability of regional hubs like Jebel Ali.

Furthermore, Iran has launched a coordinated attack on Saturday, April 13, 2024, involving hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel. Despite support from allied forces (France, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Israel intercepted most of the projectiles, but the incident has raised fears of wider escalation and disruptions to maritime operations.

This latest development follows Iran’s seizure of a container ship linked to Israel near the Strait of Hormuz, further intensifying concerns about the security of vital trade routes and the stability of regional hubs like Jebel Ali.

As the situation unfolds, stakeholders are closely monitoring developments and preparing for potential impacts on global trade and shipping markets.

The situation remains fluid, with potential shifts dependent on Israel’s response.

“Regardless of immediate outcomes, we anticipate heightened uncertainty in shipping markets. This comes at a time when tensions have already been simmering since the end of November, particularly in the Bab-al-Mandab strait and the Red Sea. Now, the Strait of Hormuz emerges as a new focal point, with significant implications for Dubai, specifically Jebel Ali, a core transhipment hub in the region.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, an online platform for global container trading and leasing.

“As far back as December, we highlighted the vulnerabilities in key maritime routes, such as the Bab-al-Mandab strait, emphasizing the potential implications for global trade and shipping networks if the disruptions spread to e.g., the Strait of Hormuz. With the recent events, these concerns have flared up.”

“The Strait of Hormuz’s strategic importance, coupled with its role as a key transit point for maritime traffic, emphasizes the significance of this latest escalation. Furthermore, the implications extend to major transhipment hubs like Jebel Ali in Dubai, amplifying the potential impact on regional trade and shipping operations.”

We are closely monitoring the situation and will keep you informed of any changes in container prices and leasing rates. As always, our priority is to support you through these dynamic market conditions.

Christian further cautioned that the war risk premiums will increase, leading to heightened volatility in shipping markets. “We anticipate that freight rates may rise in response to the increased tension and uncertainty. Furthermore, while the possibility of diversions around the region, potentially impacting hubs like Jebel Ali, exists, we believe it’s unlikely given the hub’s importance in global shipping networks.”

“Recent incidents, including Iran’s seizure of vessels in the past, highlight the region’s geopolitical complexities. This latest escalation, in response to an attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, further emphasizes the fragility of regional stability and its potential impact on the global economy.”

“As tensions continue to escalate, the question of what comes next looms large. The potential spread of conflict from the Red Sea into the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about the broader regional and global implications of this localized conflict.”

Renowned as one of the world’s most strategically significant chokepoints, The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it vital for global energy security. Any disruptions in the region can have immediate implications for global oil markets, affecting oil prices, shipping routes, and energy security worldwide.

For similar analysis and advisories, visit https://www.container-xchange.com/market-intelligence-hub/

award

TT Club Sponsors Prestigious Young Supply Chain Resilience Professional Award 2024

TT Club, a leading provider of insurance and risk management services to the international transport and logistics industry, has announced its continued support for the TAPA EMEA Award. The aim is to foster career growth in cargo security and bolster resilience in supply chains.

The award, named the Young Supply Chain Resilience Professional of the Year Award 2024, invites applicants to submit a 1,500-word entry detailing an innovative cargo security or supply chain resilience initiative they have spearheaded or significantly contributed to. Submissions can focus on addressing current security concerns, overcoming cargo loss experiences practically, or tackling emerging security risk trends.

Entries must be submitted by the deadline of April 19, 2024, with the winner notified by May 1. The recipient will have the opportunity to attend TT’s sponsored event at TAPA EMEA’s Annual Conference in Amsterdam on June 12 & 13 to receive the award. Entries will be judged based on the originality, complexity, and success of the solution in improving supply chain resilience.

Mike Yarwood, TT’s Managing Director of Loss Prevention, emphasizes the importance of identifying and rewarding young talent in the industry to foster innovation and collaboration. TT Club is proud to sponsor this award for the second year, following the success of the inaugural award in 2023.

The 2023 Award was won by Sjef Boekestijn of Boekestijn Transport Service for his creation of a new automated security auditing tool. Boekestijn’s innovative solution earned him recognition and opportunities to present his work to industry peers and government officials.

Thorsten Neumann, President & CEO of TAPA EMEA, highlights the significance of nurturing the next generation of leaders in the industry, especially amidst economic, geopolitical, health, and environmental challenges. He urges senior managers to encourage outstanding young professionals to participate in this year’s award.

The partnership between TAPA EMEA and TT Club underscores the industry’s commitment to fostering talent and addressing evolving challenges in supply chain resilience and cargo security.

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Stable Shipping Rates Amid Baltimore Bridge Collapse, but Challenges Loom Ahead

Despite the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, ocean freight container shipping rates have remained stable, according to data from Xeneta, an ocean freight analytics platform.

Xeneta reports that average spot rates from the Far East to the US North East Coast, including Baltimore, have seen a slight decrease of 1 percent since the bridge collapse, standing at $5,421 per FEU. Rates for other US East Coast ports, such as New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ), have decreased by 3 percent in the same period.

Read also: Baltimore Bridge Collision Sparks Surge in Container Price

Similarly, average spot rates from North Europe to the US North East Coast have fallen by 8 percent to $2,357 per FEU, with a 4 percent decrease when including other US East Coast ports.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, notes that while spot rates have not seen a significant change, shippers with cargo destined for Baltimore are experiencing disruptions, with containers being redirected to ports like New York/New Jersey. This incident adds to the challenges already faced by supply chains, including diversions in the Red Sea region and drought in the Panama Canal.

The Port of Baltimore plans to reopen navigation channels by the end of April and May, restoring port access to regular capacity. However, concerns linger regarding potential labor strikes on the East Coast, with the International Longshoremen’s Association contract set to expire in September. Sand warns that failure to reach an agreement could lead to widespread disruption at US East Coast ports, potentially driving up rates for ocean freight container services and prompting some shippers to explore alternative import routes.

As recovery efforts continue, the shipping industry braces for potential labor disruptions while navigating the aftermath of the Baltimore bridge collapse.

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Virginia and Baltimore Companies Unite to Solve Shipping Challenges Post-Bridge Collapse

Following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, companies from Virginia and Baltimore have banded together to navigate the ensuing shipping challenges creatively. As debris clearance progresses, the supply chain faces hurdles, but collaborative efforts are paving the way forward.

Jason Pruitt, owner of Commercial Transportation Intermodal in Baltimore, acknowledges the ongoing complexities despite inventive solutions emerging. Temporary channels have been opened to mitigate the bottleneck, but rerouting cargo through Norfolk, Philadelphia, and New York presents its own set of challenges, particularly with drivers facing driving limit constraints.

Kacy Payne of Evans Delivery Company’s Land Transportation branch introduced the “Drop Lot” solution, easing the burden on Baltimore drivers. By allowing them to drop containers at a designated lot north of Richmond, Norfolk drivers can then take over for delivery to the Port of Virginia, and vice versa for cargo destined for Baltimore. This strategy helps drivers avoid exceeding their daily driving limits, enabling them to make two moves a day within allocated hours.

Ensuring proper insurance coverage during cargo transfers poses a significant hurdle, especially for smaller trucking companies. Larger companies like Evans Intermodal Transportation leverage their extensive network and standardized processes to streamline insurance transfers, offering support to smaller players.

To enhance efficiency and transparency, artificial intelligence (AI) technology will be deployed to track cargo possession throughout the supply chain. Kevin Speers of Splice, a Virginia Beach-based IT company, explains how AI will enable real-time tracking of truck and container information, facilitating seamless transfers.

Virginia Secretary of Transportation Shep Miller emphasizes Virginia’s commitment to assisting the Baltimore shipping community, endorsing innovative solutions like the Drop Lot.

As collaborative efforts between Virginia and Baltimore intensify, the shipping industry is adapting to the challenges posed by the bridge collapse, showcasing resilience and innovation in overcoming logistical hurdles.

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Global Trade Magazine Calls for Nominations for Annual Women in Logistics Feature

April 12, 2024 – Global Trade Magazine, a premier publication focused on international trade and logistics, is excited to announce the call for nominations for our distinguished annual feature, “Women in Logistics”. This special feature will be highlighted in our upcoming Spring Issue, celebrating the invaluable contributions and achievements of women in the logistics and supply chain sectors.

We are seeking nominations for women who have made significant impacts in the logistics industry, whether they are innovators, leaders, or rising stars. Nominees should exemplify dedication, innovation, and influence in their respective areas and demonstrate a commitment to excellence in logistics.

Eligibility Criteria:

– Nominee must be a woman currently active in the logistics or supply chain industry.

– Demonstrates exceptional leadership, innovation, or contribution to the logistics sector.

Nomination Process:

– Nominations can be submitted by colleagues, peers, or even self-nominations.

How to Nominate:

– Visit our nomination page here: Women In Logistics Nomination Form

– Fill out the nomination form with all required details about the nominee.

Deadline for Nominations:

– All nominations must be received by May 02, 2024.

We look forward to discovering and recognizing the powerful contributions of women in logistics through your nominations. The selected nominees will be featured in the 2024 Spring Issue of Global Trade Magazine, sharing their stories and insights with our global audience.

For more information, please visit www.globaltrademag.com or contact our editor at mcoker@globaltrademag.com.

 

directive

EU’s Corporate Sustainability Directive: Promoting Ethical Supply Chains

The European Union’s efforts to instill ethical and sustainable practices within supply chains have reached a significant milestone with the adoption of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D) by the EU Council on March 15, 2024. This directive, following years of deliberation and negotiation, mandates stringent measures for large companies to identify and address human rights abuses and environmental damage across their supply chains.

Initially met with resistance, particularly from Germany, concerns over additional burdens on businesses were addressed through revisions to the directive. Notably, adjustments were made to the thresholds for affected companies’ turnover and employee count, alongside changes in implementation timelines.

Under the CS3D, companies are obligated to integrate due diligence into their policies, assess potential adverse impacts, engage with stakeholders, and develop transition plans for climate change mitigation. Failure to comply may result in fines up to 5% of global turnover, underscoring the importance of adherence to ethical standards.

Despite challenges, many businesses, including prominent names like Aldi, Bayer, and Nestle, have thrown their support behind the directive, emphasizing its role in promoting sustainability and creating a level playing field across the EU.

While the directive aims to enhance transparency and risk management, concerns linger regarding its potential unintended consequences, such as changes in sourcing behavior and the migration of production from regions with lower ethical standards to compliant ones. However, the long-term benefits of increased visibility in the supply chain and improved resilience are anticipated to outweigh short-term challenges.

Overall, the CS3D represents a significant step towards fostering ethical supply chains, aligning with the EU’s commitment to sustainability and responsible business practices.

hubs safety supply chain global trade integrity

Fostering Resilience: U.S. Department of Commerce Commemorates Supply Chain Integrity Month

Grant T. Harris, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Analysis, has released a statement marking the commencement of Supply Chain Integrity Month. In his statement, Harris emphasizes the critical importance of building resilient supply chains, particularly in the face of unprecedented challenges and disruptions.

Supply Chain Integrity Month serves as an opportunity for stakeholders across industries, policymakers, and the public to come together to reflect on the essential work being done to address supply chain challenges. Harris highlights tragedies like the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore as stark reminders of the necessity for preparedness and resilience in supply chains.

The statement underscores that supply chains impact various facets of daily life, from medicine to groceries to transportation, making proactive collaboration essential. Harris mentions the Department of Commerce’s Supply Chain Center, which is pioneering efforts to mitigate future disruptions by fostering collaboration across government agencies and beyond.

Throughout Supply Chain Integrity Month, the Department of Commerce aims to spotlight the initiatives undertaken by the Supply Chain Center and industry experts to fortify critical supply chains. The focus is on strengthening America’s economic competitiveness, supporting job growth, and bolstering communities.

The Department pledges to continue partnering with stakeholders from various sectors, including industry, academia, labor, and civil society, to address key supply chain concerns. These include enhancing data availability and quality, promoting information-sharing between public and private sectors, and implementing best practices to mitigate and respond to supply chain risks.

By fostering collaboration and innovation, the Department aims to build more secure and sustainable supply chains that not only benefit the economy but also enhance national security.

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Descartes Releases April Global Shipping Report: March U.S. Import Container Volume Continues Strong Trajectory

Descartes Systems Group, the global leader in uniting logistics-intensive businesses in commerce, released its April Global Shipping Report for logistics and supply chain professionals. In March 2024, U.S. container import volumes increased 0.4% from February, but jumped 15.7% when compared to the same month last year, indicating exceptional growth when considering the impact of the Chinese Lunar New Year on the second half of March.

Compared to February 2024, imports from China continued to decline because of the Chinese Lunar New Year, reflected by a significant volume loss at the Port of Los Angeles for the second consecutive month. Port transit delays continue to improve as the drought in Panama and Middle East conflict have yet to impact East and Gulf Coast ports. April’s update of logistics metrics monitored by Descartes show that the first quarter of 2024 has been a strong start for U.S. container imports; however, concerns around global supply chain performance are still expected throughout the year because of ongoing conditions at the Panama and Suez Canals, upcoming labor negotiations at U.S. South Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports, Middle East conflict, and the impact of the Baltimore Bridge collapse which remains to be fully reflected in U.S. container import volume data.

U.S. container imports maintain year-over-year strength.

March 2024 U.S. container import volumes remained mostly flat from February 2024, increasing only 0.4% to 2,145,341 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) (see Figure 1). Versus March 2023, however, TEU volume was higher by 15.7%, and up 20.6% from pre-pandemic March 2019, demonstrating that year-over-year performance remains strong. The Chinese Lunar New Year may have masked even stronger growth as it occurred on February 11 and the holiday extended the entire week, which means its impact on U.S. imports did not occur until the second half of March 2024. For a more representative view, Descartes compared the first 15 days of March 2024 to the same time period in 2023 as these time periods were less likely to be impacted by the Chinese Lunar New Year. In this timeframe, U.S. container import growth was 22.7%.

Figure 1. U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison

A graph of different colored linesDescription automatically generated
Source: Descartes Datamyne™

 “Considering declining import volumes from China, March 2024 was a strong month and continues the robust performance that began in January 2024,” said Chris Jones, EVP Industry, Descartes. “Despite the combined effect of the Panama drought and the conflict in the Middle East, port transit delays showed continued improvement across nearly all the top ports, as March volumes at East and Gulf Coast ports remained stable.”

The April report is Descartes’ thirty-second installment since beginning its analysis in August 2021. To read past reports, learn more about the key economic and logistics factors driving the global shipping crisis, and review strategies to help address it in the near-, short- and long-term, visit Descartes’ Global Shipping Resource Center.

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Supply Chain Professionals Are at Risk of Spear Phishing: Here’s How to Address It

Supply chain professionals hold plenty of sensitive information about businesses and their beneficiaries. Guarding this data has become more challenging as hackers refine their methods of attacking individuals and organizations. 

While cyberattacks like spear phishing have become more well-developed, security solutions have also scaled up and improved. Employ the right programs and methods to keep the supply chain safe and businesses moving in the right direction.

Read also: The Rising Risk of Cyber Crime in the Supply Chain

How Spear Phishing Happens

Spear phishing occurs in various communication settings, including emails, phone calls and chat-based platforms. Many people know phishing is a cyberattack targeting multiple individuals and companies. Spear phishing involves posing as a reliable authority to extort data through links and manipulation. It’s more effective because these cyberattacks are targeted.

Phishing attacks feature a general script copied and pasted to various individuals. People who use spear phishing seek information about their victims. For example, a spear phishing message will open with a line about what the recipient and the perpetrator have in common. 

Some people may use AI to remove grammatical mistakes and create hyper-realistic messages. They can adapt and impersonate the voice of a colleague or leader in phone calls to lure victims into sharing important information.

The extra time that goes toward identifying viable targets and conducting preliminary research can make spear phishing much more likely to succeed. Social engineering makes it harder to differentiate a real message from a spear phishing one.

The Impact of Spear Phishing

Big companies fall for phishing scams all the time. General Electric released news about a data breach in February 2020 involving Canon. While processing documents involving benefit entitlements, the company discovered that a hacker accessed a Canon email account to tap into employee information.

Spear phishing can trigger a lack of trust between partners in the supply chain. For instance, when people notice that the fleets shipping their goods compromise their data, it can raise uncertainty and doubt about continuing to order or do business with them. 

The results can also have a devastating effect on a company’s finances. About 39% of organizations affected by spear phishing attacks cite direct instances of monetary loss, like transferring cash. Reputational and financial damage can cause closure or bankruptcy. Such an imbalance can cause supply chain problems and eventually affect the economy.

Addressing Spear Phishing

Spear phishing is a viable threat. However, it is preventable to a certain degree with the correct methods. 

1. Provide Employee Training

Employees in a supply chain are viable targets for spear phishers. They can access sensitive information like names, addresses, certificates, tax forms and Social Security numbers. Educate them about the dangers of spear phishing and to be more discerning with their communications. 

A spear-phishing attack can be incredibly convincing, especially since the sender pretends to be someone close to the recipient. After gaining trust, the perpetrator will send a request, such as opening an attachment or providing login credentials. Promote confidentiality and suggest reporting the incident so IT can verify it. Discourage taking telephone calls from unknown numbers.

Promoting a low profile on social media platforms is also important. Spear phishing experts will likely sweep public accounts to review targets and their backgrounds. Ask employees to limit posting personal information. They should avoid posting company news or mentioning their employer to deter cyberattackers.

2. Verify Organizations

Working with a new supplier or vendor can be exciting. However, be wary of their background and whether they have ties to cybercrimes. Spear phishing can make companies out of thin air or impersonate legitimate ones.

Verify third-party legitimacy before conducting business. It’s best to hold in-person meetings with an established authority rather than relying on digital communications. 

3. Secure Vehicles

Some logistics businesses look to self-driving trucks because of labor shortages. The trucking industry saw a deficit of 80,000 drivers in late 2021. Autonomous vehicles provide a big advantage in meeting demand and regulating fuel use. However, these preprogrammed systems are susceptible to hacking when cyberattackers gain access.

Some people may use spear phishing to pose as a maintenance specialist or another authority figure to gain access to the self-driving system. Restrict access to these assets. Be vigilant when receiving messages.

4. Conduct Inventory Reviews

Inventory is another vulnerable aspect of the supply chain. Stored products can hold incredible value in quality and quantity. Technological devices also have access to sensitive data, so limits should be placed on who can use them.

It’s also imperative to conduct inventory reviews. Regularly update who has accessed what and which devices are on a company’s network. Audit logs of suspicious activity can uncover a spear phishing attack or another cybercrime. 

5. Improve Order Monitoring

Professionals responsible for order management should look for ways to optimize the processes. Some people coordinate through email to manage things— about 82% of companies saw a higher volume in 2022. However, this entails a higher risk of email-based threats like spear phishing.

Use machine learning-powered email security solutions to filter spear phishing messages from an inbox. Seek unique and protected order monitoring platforms. The ideal system can simplify operations and fulfillment while securing vendor and patron information. 

6. Update Company Security

Company cybersecurity should never be overlooked. Adopt the right policies, such as keeping financial information and passwords secure. Passwords should be changed regularly to avoid data leaks that will compromise the supply chain.

Make sure to verify all email recipients and senders. Use a work email address to make internal communications safer in the long run. For external communications, seek tech specialists who can vet profiles.

It’s also ideal to install up-to-date security software on all work devices. Systems like firewalls and antivirus software can detect spear phishing emails and alert employees. Early identification is key to preventing anything drastic from happening.

7. Create a Contingency Plan

Spear phishing can be incredibly elusive and slip through security. That’s why it’s vital to have a contingency plan. The right processes can offer significant damage control and recovery in the wake of a cyberattack. 

If data is compromised, file a cyber insurance claim to cover the damages. It’s also essential to back up data and change all passwords. Restrict access to prevent more information from leaking. Ensure they’re more secure than previous variations.

Seek assistance from the IT team in charge. These specialists can scan and remove malware and other threats from the system. They can also trace the exact date and time the infiltration happened. Companies should also file a report with the Internet Crime Complaint Center. An investigation can prevent criminals from spear-phishing other businesses and bring them to justice.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also requires public companies to disclose cybersecurity breaches and risk management processes. Details should include the nature of the incident and its material impacts and be submitted within four business days.

Shield Supply Chains From Spear Phishing

Supply chains are vulnerable to spear phishing. Companies should be aware of how it happens and stay on high alert at each step of operations. Effective security is vital to ensuring commerce continues without a hitch and nothing interrupts the process.

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Adapting to Emerging Global Trade Routes

In the wake of recent geopolitical crises, global trade routes have undergone significant transformations, necessitating a reevaluation of how goods flow along emerging corridors. Traditional routes, such as the northern Eurasian corridors, have experienced declines in freight flows since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, while the Red Sea crisis has further disrupted east-west trade, prompting a search for alternative routes.

The rise of new trade routes, particularly the Middle and Southern Corridors, has reshaped the dynamics of global transport and trade. These corridors, linking China and Central Asia through the Caspian Sea or Iran to Türkiye and Europe, offer efficient door-to-door road transport options and facilitate the seamless integration of different modes of transportation.

In recent years, the Middle Corridor has witnessed remarkable growth in transit volumes, with a staggering 150% increase compared to the previous year. Similarly, the Southern Corridor has seen significant rises in transport operations, highlighting its role in facilitating trade between Türkiye and Central Asian countries.

The attractiveness of these corridors is underscored by their efficiency, with transport from Lianyungang, China, to Türkiye or EU countries taking significantly less time compared to maritime routes via the Suez Canal.

However, the Red Sea crisis has presented new challenges, necessitating innovative solutions to mitigate disruptions to global trade. Transport companies have begun rerouting shipments through the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, utilizing the UN TIR system to bypass blocked maritime routes.

Furthermore, the digitalization of trade processes, including the implementation of eTIR, holds immense potential to streamline transit operations and enhance trade security and efficiency. By eliminating paper-based processes and facilitating intermodal transport, eTIR aims to optimize trade operations and minimize data duplication.

As global trade routes continue to evolve, investments in both physical infrastructure and digitalization efforts are essential to ensure the resilience and efficiency of these corridors. Harmonized development tools and digitalization initiatives will be crucial in supporting the growth of emerging trade routes and safeguarding global trade against future crises.

The pursuit of efficient and resilient global trade routes requires collaboration and coordination among stakeholders, with a focus on leveraging technological advancements to overcome challenges and seize opportunities in an ever-changing global landscape.