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Aluminum Prices Spike Up 62% and Will Continue Rallying in 2022

aluminum

Aluminum Prices Spike Up 62% and Will Continue Rallying in 2022

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Aluminum – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Throughout this year, global aluminum prices continuously grew and gained 62% in October 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. China’s output has decreased due to restrictions on energy usage and halted production at a 300K-ton capacity factory in Yunnan province. Consequently, the average yearly price in 2022 is projected to rise by 6% y-o-y. Despite rising prices, the U.S., the world´s largest aluminum importer, expanded its purchases by 4.5% against 2020.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the World Bank data, the average aluminum price grew from $2004 per tonne in January 2021 to $2934 per tonne in October 2021, a 62% increase from the previous October ($1806 per tonne). Next year, aluminum prices are forecast to rise by 6% y-o-y because of a high demand from the automotive industry, increased prices of energy resources and a supply shortage arising from China diminishing production to decrease СО2 emissions.

As China limits the output, it must expand imports. From January through July 2021, China purchased 1.5M tonnes of aluminum from abroad which was 52% more than the same period in 2020. In monetary terms, throughout seven months, imports surpassed $3.3B, over twice the amount during the same period in 2020 ($1.6B). In November 2021, an explosion occurred at an aluminum factory in Yunnan province. This caused a complete stop in production for the 300K-ton-capacity factory and further exacerbated the supply shortage on the market.

The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of aluminum, and it also increased purchases this year. From January through September 2021, the U.S. imported 2.9M tonnes of the metal, a 4.5% gain in volume of shipments from the same period in 2020. In monetary terms, imports grew by 47%, reaching $7.8B.

Aluminum Exports by Country

Last year, aluminum exports worldwide reached 24M tonnes, flattening from the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the past decade. In value terms, aluminum exports declined from $47.9B in 2019 to $44.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

The most significant shipments were from Canada (2.9M tonnes), Russia (2.7M tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (2.2M tonnes), India (2.1M tonnes), Malaysia (1.5M tonnes), Australia (1.4M tonnes), Norway (1.1M tonnes), Bahrain (0.8M tonnes), the Netherlands (0.7M tonnes), South Africa (0.6M tonnes), China (0.6M tonnes) and Mozambique (0.5M tonnes), together accounting for 70% of total export. Germany (488K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, Canada ($5.5B), the United Arab Emirates ($4.3B) and Russia ($4.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, together accounting for 31% of global exports. These countries were followed by India, Malaysia, Norway, Australia, Bahrain, the Netherlands, China, South Africa, Germany and Mozambique, which together accounted for a further 41%.

In 2020, the average aluminum export price amounted to $1,847 per tonne, shrinking by -7.5% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Norway ($2,367 per tonne), while Russia ($1,568 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

aluminium foil

EU Aluminium Foil Market Increased 0.3% to $5.2B

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Aluminium Foil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the EU aluminium foil market increased by 0.3% to $5.2B, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the market value increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained a peak level of $5.4B. From 2012 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

EU Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of aluminium foil consumption in 2019 were Italy (275K tonnes), Germany (144K tonnes) and France (137K tonnes), with a combined 42% share of total consumption.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Italy, while aluminium foil consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($872M), Germany ($697M) and France ($485M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 40% of the total market. These countries were followed by the UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Austria and Greece, which together accounted for a further 44%.

The countries with the highest levels of aluminium foil per capita consumption in 2019 were Belgium (5.57 kg per person), Italy (4.62 kg per person) and Sweden (3.82 kg per person).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for aluminium foil in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

Aluminium foil production rose to 1.3M tonnes in 2019, picking up by 1.5% on 2018. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when the production volume increased by 7.2% y-o-y. Over the period under review, production hit record highs in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports in the EU

Aluminium foil imports expanded markedly to 1.2M tonnes in 2019, picking up by 8.2% against 2018.

In value terms, aluminium foil imports contracted to $4.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2009 to 2019; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained a peak of $5B. From 2012 to 2019, the growth imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2019, Germany (176K tonnes), France (155K tonnes), Italy (128K tonnes), the UK (121K tonnes), Poland (89K tonnes), Belgium (81K tonnes), Spain (65K tonnes), the Netherlands (59K tonnes), Austria (42K tonnes), the Czech Republic (38K tonnes), Denmark (28K tonnes) and Hungary (26K tonnes) was the key importer of aluminium foil in the European Union, making up 88% of total import.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Italy, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($845M), Italy ($498M) and the UK ($459M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, with a combined 39% share of total imports. France, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 48%.

The Czech Republic recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The aluminium foil import price in the European Union stood at $3,971 per tonne in 2019, dropping by -13.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum at $5,228 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($4,973 per tonne), while Belgium ($2,775 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform