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Chinese E-Retailers Drive Surge in Air Cargo Prices to the U.S

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Chinese E-Retailers Drive Surge in Air Cargo Prices to the U.S

The escalating popularity of Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu among American consumers is driving a significant increase in air cargo prices from China to the U.S. This surge in demand, especially during what is typically considered an off-peak season for cargo, is straining limited capacity and bucking the global downward trend in air cargo rates.

Unlike U.S. e-commerce giants that primarily ship from domestic warehouses, Shein and Temu directly ship goods from Chinese factories to U.S. consumers using air cargo. This has led to a 14% increase in air cargo rates from China to the U.S. compared to the same period last year, while the global average has seen an 8% decrease.

The rise of Chinese e-commerce platforms offering competitive prices and fast delivery times has caused capacity shortages, prompting concerns about meeting demand during peak seasons like the Christmas holiday period. To address this, cargo airline Atlas Air has increased its flights between the U.S. and China, partnering with Chinese freight forwarder YunExpress.

However, challenges persist as air freight capacity between China and the U.S. has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, reduced cargo capacity on planes due to fuel-saving measures and geopolitical tensions have further constrained capacity.

Despite efforts to add capacity and mitigate rising demand, competition for air cargo space between logistics companies and Chinese e-commerce firms continues to intensify. This competition, coupled with delays in ocean shipping caused by conflicts like the Red Sea conflict, is pushing prices even higher.

As the air freight market continues to soar, driven by the relentless growth of e-commerce shipments, logistics companies are grappling with the challenge of meeting demand amidst limited capacity, with no clear indication of when the situation may stabilize.

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China Firmly Rejects US Accusations of Trade Barriers, Calls for Compliance with WTO Rules

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued a strong rebuttal on Tuesday against the US’ National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, vehemently rejecting its classification of China as a country of “primary concern.” The ministry urged the US to adhere fully to WTO rules instead of levying unsubstantiated accusations against other nations.

MOFCOM emphasized that the assessment of countries’ trade policies should be based on whether they violate WTO regulations, noting the absence of any evidence in the US report to support claims of Chinese non-compliance. The report’s arbitrary allegations regarding China’s purported “non-market policies and practices,” as well as barriers in agricultural products and data policies, were strongly opposed by China.

Since joining the WTO, China, as the largest developing nation globally, has consistently upheld the multilateral trading system while expanding its high-quality opening-up efforts. It has continuously refined its socialist market economy system and legal framework, emphasizing the pivotal role of the market in resource allocation. These efforts have garnered widespread recognition and appreciation from the international community, according to MOFCOM.

In contrast, the US has pursued an “America first” strategy, disregarding multilateral trade norms by unilaterally imposing tariffs, formulating discriminatory industrial policies, and imposing export controls and investment restrictions under the guise of national security. These actions have raised concerns among WTO members, including China, about fair competition, MOFCOM stressed.

China urged the US to cease its baseless criticism of other nations, abide by WTO regulations, and uphold a just and equitable international trade order, MOFCOM stated.

The annual report released by the US Trade Representative’s office on Monday alleged that China has erected trade barriers related to food safety requirements, advanced manufacturing industrial policies, and data regulations.

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Biden Administration Issues Executive Order to Restrict U.S. Investment in Chinese Technology Sectors

Last week, President Biden issued an Executive Order outlining the long-anticipated proposed restrictions on outbound U.S. investments in entities located in China or otherwise subject to China’s jurisdiction. The Executive Order would establish a new national security program to be implemented by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and according to the Biden administration, the program would target “countries of concern” that seek to develop sensitive or advanced technologies and products critical for military, intelligence, surveillance, or cyber-enabled capabilities. The Treasury Department has already established a website for this outbound investment program, which provides copies of a press release and a fact sheet discussing the proposed restrictions in further detail.  

Importantly, the Executive Order does not implement any regulations, nor does it contain any draft regulations. Instead, the Treasury Department has used the authority provided under the Executive Order to issue an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) which outlines the intended scope of the program and starts a 45-day comment period in which the Treasury Department will seek feedback from the public on the restrictions. The Treasury is expected to issue its proposed draft regulations sometime next year.

The ANPRM generally envisions implementing regulations which will outright prohibit persons subject to U.S. jurisdiction from making certain extremely sensitive investments related to China and then require them to provide prior notification to Treasury before making other less sensitive investments related to China. Key aspects of the ANPRM include (but are not limited to):

  • The proposed restrictions and reporting requirements will cover any “countries of concern” as identified by the president. Thus far, the only designated “country of concern” is China, which also includes the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau.
  • The ANPRM proposes to target U.S. investments in companies subject to China’s jurisdiction which are engaged in activities related to the following advanced technologies and products:

(i) Semiconductors and microelectronics. Proposed prohibited investments would include investments in entities engaged in the development of electronic design automation software or semiconductor manufacturing equipment; the design, fabrication, or packaging of advanced integrated circuits which meet or exceed certain performance capabilities; and the installation or sale of supercomputers. Proposed notification requirements would cover investments in entities engaged in the design, fabrication, and packaging of integrated circuits with performance capabilities below the investment prohibition threshold.

(ii) Quantum information technologies. Proposed prohibited investments would include investments in entities engaged in the production of quantum computers and certain related cooling components; the development of certain quantum sensing platforms to be exclusively used for military end uses, government intelligence, or mass-surveillance; and the development of a quantum network or communication system designed to be exclusively used for secure communications. Treasury stated it is not currently considering a separate notification requirement for this category.

(iii) Artificial intelligence systems. Proposed prohibited investments would include investments in entities engaged in the development of software that incorporates an AI system and is designed to be either “exclusively used” (the Treasury Department indicated that the term “primarily used” is also under consideration) for military, government intelligence, or mass-surveillance end uses. Proposed notification requirements would cover investments in entities engaged in the development of software that incorporates an AI system and is designed to be either “exclusively used” (or possibly “primarily used”) for certain uses related to cybersecurity, robotic controls, surreptitious listening, non-cooperative location tracking, or facial recognition.

  • The ANPRM anticipates the prohibitions and/or notification requirements will apply to U.S. investments in companies that are engaged in the above activities and that are legally organized and/or headquartered in China or owned by Chinese citizens or the Chinese government, in addition to companies located outside of China that are at least 50% owned, individually or in the aggregate, directly or indirectly, by Chinese citizens, Chinese parent companies, or the Chinese government.
  • The ANPRM also proposes prohibiting or requiring notice for certain transactions, including greenfield investments in certain industries in China. From a practical standpoint, this could restrict certain companies from forming subsidiaries in China if they do business in any of the industries subject to the ANPRM’s prohibitions or notice requirements.
  • The ANPRM technically only applies to U.S. persons, which it defines as any U.S. citizen, lawful permanent resident, entity organized under U.S. law (including foreign branches), and any person in the U.S. However, Treasury is considering imposing requirements which could effectively extend the ANPRM’s restrictions to subsidiaries legally organized outside the U.S. by prohibiting U.S. persons from “directing” any action by a non-U.S. person that would violate the ANPRM’s restrictions if performed by a U.S. person. The ANPRM also contemplates requiring U.S. persons to take appropriate action to cause foreign-organized subsidiaries under their control to comply with its restrictions.
  • When the Treasury Department does eventually enact implementing regulations under the Executive Order and the ANPRM, it does not appear that the Treasury Department will seek to retroactively impose those regulations’ prohibitions and notification requirements on transactions conducted before the forthcoming regulations’ eventual effective date. However, once the Treasury Department does implement these regulations, the ANPRM explicitly states that Treasury is “not considering granting retroactive waivers or exemptions (i.e., waivers or exemptions after a prohibited transaction has been completed).” Therefore, once the new rules take effect, companies will need to avoid prohibited transactions and proactively disclose reportable transactions to avoid violating the new rules.
  • Comments to the ANPRM must be submitted within 45 days after the ANPRM is published in the Federal Register. The ANPRM was published on August 14, 2023, and therefore comments must be received by September 28, 2023, to be considered. If you are interested in submitting a comment, please reach out to HB’s export controls and economic sanctions team or your HB contact for additional guidance.

The ANPRM’s prohibitions appear to apply to a very narrow segment of industries and therefore may only impact a very small number of U.S. investors (if any). However, even if their transactions will not implicate any of the ANPRM’s prohibitions or notice requirements, persons subject to U.S. jurisdiction and seeking to invest in China should be aware that various other existing U.S. laws and regulations could still severely restrict their ability to invest in China. For example, export controls imposed under the U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR) will potentially restrict any exports of U.S. origin “technical data” or “technology” to China made in connection with otherwise permissible foreign investments. If Chinese companies do receive U.S. origin software or technology in connection with any U.S. investment, then products manufactured in China through the use of such software or technology could become subject to the EAR’s export controls pursuant to the EAR’s existing foreign-produced direct product rules. Additionally, sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) will prohibit U.S. persons from purchasing any publicly traded securities issued by certain companies listed on the Non-SDN Chinese Military Industrial Complex List.

 

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Unpacking U.S.-China Sanctions and Export Control Regulations: The China “Military End Use” and “Military End User” Rule and the Department of Defense List

This is the second in a series of articles by Eversheds Sutherland partners Jeff Bialos and Ginger Faulk explaining the legal and regulatory impacts of certain recent US sanctions and export control actions targeting various Chinese entities. Each article explains the regulatory context of the recent rules. Recognizing that this is a highly charged political topic, the article does not condone or promote any governmental actions discussed here but is only explanatory in nature.

As part of the overall realignment of US national security strategy toward China, the US government has taken a series of actions this year to target the Chinese military sector through sanctions and export controls imposed against a range of Chinese companies. The recent promulgation of the expanded China “military end-use” and “military end user” rule mark an expansion of a longstanding US policy to bar certain exports of US “dual-use” goods and technologies that can contribute to China’s military capability. This, combined with the recent release by the Department of Defense of a list of companies considered to be “owned or controlled” by the Chinese military – pursuant to a 20-year-old law – signals increased US government pressure on China and its firms that are viewed as instruments of the Chinese government. These rules together threaten to limit significantly the availability of “dual-use” US goods and technology to Chinese companies on the list.

Unpacking the China “Military End User” Rule

A recent amendment to the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) targeting a broader range of “military end-uses” and “military end-users” in China is designed to curtail exports and re-exports of a range of US origin “dual-use” technology, software, and goods to China’s private sector but only where the private sector end-user is determined to support the Chinese military. Per the US Commerce Department, the new rule “will require increased diligence with respect to the evaluation of end-users in China, particularly in view of China’s widespread civil-military integration.”

Previously, the rule applied only when the item was intended for military end-use, e.g., incorporation into a military end-item. The new rule now expands this approach beyond exports for military end-use, and now requires an export license for exports or transfers of listed items to China if the item is intended entirely OR in part for a “military end-user” in these countries. Under this expanded control, the rule potentially proscribes exports and re-exports not only to the military (e.g., the Peoples Liberation Army (“PLA”)) but also to police, national guard, intelligence organizations and “any person or entity whose actions or functions are intended to support ‘military end-uses.’” In other words, an export of a subject item to a private sector company which also contracts with the Chinese government could be prohibited even if the item itself is neither destined for the military (defined in a traditional sense) nor for a military application.

In addition, the new rule expands the definition of “military end-use” by no longer just restricting exports for “the use, development, production of, or incorporation into” military items, but now also extending to an export that “supports or contributes to the operation, installation, maintenance, repair, overhaul, refurbishing, ‘development,’ or ‘production’ of military items.” A subject item that supports even one of these functions triggers the “military end-use” rule.

The rule also adds products to the scope of the rule under the categories of materials processing, electronics, telecommunications, information security, sensors and lasers, and propulsion. Importantly, now subject to the rule are 5G-capable microprocessors, devices, and components. Finally, the new rule subjects certain exports to China to new country-based licensing controls under a “regional stability” control.

Heightened Due Diligence Obligations for Exporters of Goods, Software and Technologies

Significantly, the new “military end user” rule imposes a broader obligation on US exporters to identify potential military links of Chinese counterparts and assure against diversion of technology to the Chinese military. It places the burden on US exporters to not only (i) determine the end-user of subject items, even if those items are transferred to a third country, but also to (ii) evaluate and determine whether the identified end-user would be considered a “military end user” by virtue of potential links with Chinese military agencies. This applies to exports of all subject items (e.g., 5G devices and certain electrical components, among others) regardless of how the export in question will ultimately be used.

In practical terms, this means enhanced due diligence to identify potential military affiliations of Chinese and third-country customers, distributors, procurement agents, and other intermediaries with respect to all dual-use exports to China. It also means re-evaluating technology sharing arrangements between US companies and Chinese joint venture partners such as commercial partners, research institutes, and academic institutions.

Note, the EAR controls apply not just to US goods and equipment but also foreign manufactured goods and equipment that incorporate US-origin content. The “dual-use” items that are subject to the military end-user rule are listed by category at Supplement No. 2 to the EAR 15 CFR Part 744 and include certain controlled materials and materials processing equipment, telecommunications equipment and software (e.g., 5G technologies), sensors and laser technology, and marine and space vessels. So, technology and software companies in any country whose products rely on these US technologies face a binary choice: either to police China business partners for even tangential connections to the military sector or divorce their China supply chains and technology/software flows from the US.

The PLA/DoD List

Similarly, on June 25th, 2020, the US Department of Defense (DoD) issued a list of 20 “communist Chinese military companies” operating in the US that meet the criteria of section 1237 of the National Defense Authorization Act (“NDAA”) for FY 1999. Eleven new additions to the list were issued on August 28, 2020. [1] Companies on these lists include massive Chinese state-owned companies in the aerospace, construction and engineering, chemical, electronics, nuclear, telecommunications, and other sectors. The issuance of this list and the Commerce Department’s new end-user” rules are connected in that this list of companies is likely to guide determinations under the EAR “military end user” rule and the direction of future US-China sanctions actions. The DoD List may be a natural place for the US government to start in identifying Chinese “military end-users” subject to further restriction. Thus the implications for US technology partnerships with Chinese companies in these are potentially quite significant.

In 1999, Congress enacted a provision authorizing the DoD to issue a list of “communist Chinese military companies” operating in the US that are “owned or controlled by the People’s Liberation Army” and are “engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, production or exporting.”

On June 24, 2020, nearly 22 years later, DoD finally issued the list. This was in response to a letter sent by a bipartisan group of Senators to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper requesting that DoD issue the list as a tool to confront China and its stated strategy of “military-civilian fusion” to achieve its national objectives. The DoD compiled the list of companies that support the Chinese military as the basis for subsequent US policy actions to address the competitive Chinese threat. The specific risks under consideration included: 1) the transfer of “dual-use” technology to these companies that could, in turn, be used for military purposes given their relationships with the PLA; and 2) the supply chain risks associated with the participation of these companies in US supply chains (e.g., through providing equipment such as semiconductors). Such supply chain risks include the risks that such Chinese firms could introduce malevolent software into US products or use its equipment as a basis for surveillance (i.e., espionage).

It should be recognized that the companies on the DoD List by no means encompass the universe of Chinese government-owned or controlled companies, as there are numerous such state-owned or controlled companies not on the DoD List. Rather, the focus is on companies considered to be owned or controlled by the PLA itself. Further, the term “control,” as used in this context, appears to be broad in scope and seems to be utilized by DoD to reach companies that have some significant engagement with the PLA (i.e., where it might be the case that the PLA supervises or directs some functional activity or area at the company). In this regard, there are at least several companies on the DoD list not generally considered to be government-owned or controlled, let alone PLA owned or controlled in a traditional sense—a small number of which are publicly traded. Thus, in these circumstances, the “control” must relate to some functional areas of engagement.  For example, in the case of Huawei, the control might arguably relate to the idea that the PLA can direct Huawei to utilize its platforms and equipment for surveillance or other activities.

Notably, being listed on the DoD list has no direct and immediate legal consequences for the listed companies. However, the law does make it easier for the president to impose sanctions. Once a company is on the section 1237 list, the president can impose the full array of economic sanctions without any additional finding, including prohibitions on US persons doing business with that company, export restrictions, and the like. Note also that the president can also impose an import ban on companies on the DoD list upon declaring an international economic emergency – an action that, if undertaken, is not subject to challenge in federal courts.

Further, as noted above, the recent listings of Chinese companies on the DoD List are likely to lead to additional export control restrictions on the named parties under the new Commerce rule that requires licenses, and establishes a “presumption of denial” policy, for exports, re-exports, or transfers (in-country) of certain products and technologies to Chinese “military end-users.” Since this new rule defines “military end-users” to include any “person or entity whose actions or functions are intended to support ‘military end uses,” it is reasonably likely that Commerce will find that parties listed on the DoD list would be considered a military “end-user,” and as such, any license applications for covered products and technologies will be subject to a presumption of denial.    

Finally, the list is a tool that can generally build pressure on China. In releasing the list, DoD officials observed that “As the People’s Republic of China attempts to blur the lines between civil and military sectors, ‘knowing your supplier’ is critical … We envision this list will be used as a tool for the US government, companies, investors, academic institutions and like-minded parties to conduct due diligence with regard to partnerships with these entities….”

In conclusion, while the DoD/PLA list itself has no direct legal effect, in combination with the EAR’s military end-user rule, it signals a US desire to limit the availability of “dual-use” American technologies to these companies. To comply with the rule exporters and re-exporters of the listed US technologies must conduct heightened diligence of Chinese SOE end-users and will require a US export license where an end-user also uses, develops or produces items for the Chinese military. This places the impetus on the Chinese companies to demonstrate to US exporters and to the US government that, as applicable: 1) there is sufficient separation between subsidiaries with defense-related operations and those engaged in purely commercial activities; or 2) for those with purely commercial operations, they are not providing US-based dual-use products or technologies to support China’s military.

In some circumstances, it also means that Chinese companies on the list may be forced to look elsewhere (outside of the United States) for the equivalent non-US technologies and products and restructure their supply chains accordingly. Notably, the US position places it as an outlier among allied Western governments. If the US has a new President in 2021, we would expect to see a more multilateral approach on these and other China-related trade issues.

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[1] Both lists are available here.

Jeffrey P.  Bialos, partner at Eversheds Sutherland, assists clients in making multi-faceted business decisions, structuring transactions and complying with complex regulatory requirements. As former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Industrial Affairs, he brings deep experience in defense, homeland security and national security matters, including antitrust, procurement, export controls, industrial security and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Ginger T. Faulk, partner at Eversheds Sutherland, represents multinational companies in matters involving US government regulation of foreign trade and investment. She has extensive experience advising and representing global companies, counseling clients in matters arising under US sanctions, export controls, import and other national security and foreign policy trade-related regulations.