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Oil Prices Surge as US Sanctions Chinese Refinery

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Oil Prices Surge as US Sanctions Chinese Refinery

Oil prices have surged following a recent US decision to sanction a Chinese refinery, marking an intensified effort to curb Iranian oil flows. According to a report by Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose toward $69 a barrel, while Brent crude closed at $72. The sanctions target Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co. and its CEO for allegedly purchasing Iranian oil, representing the first US intervention in China’s refining sector.

Read also: Oil Prices Forecasted to Enter Boom Cycle by 2035 Amid Rising Global Demand

Crude is poised for its largest weekly gain since mid-January, fueled by optimistic US consumption data. However, this upward momentum faces challenges from global trade tensions and potential increases in OPEC+ oil supply in the coming months. Data from the IndexBox platform further indicates that global oil market dynamics continue to be influenced by geopolitical actions and economic indicators.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

oil global trade tariffs us

Oil Prices Forecasted to Enter Boom Cycle by 2035 Amid Rising Global Demand

The global oil market is on the brink of a significant upsurge in prices, anticipated to commence by the middle of the next decade due to sustained demand growth in markets like China, reports consultants Rapidan Energy Group. The advisory firm predicts that with the receding expectations of peaking global demand by 2030, the reality of a structurally short supply will become evident.

Read also: Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Prices for Asian Markets Amid OPEC+ Delays

As spare capacity is projected to diminish drastically by 2035, oil prices could potentially enter a boom cycle. Interestingly, despite various scenarios evaluating the escalation of electric vehicles, world oil consumption is expected to grow continuously until 2050. Specifically, gasoline demand will persist through to 2035, with no apparent decline even in China, a primary driver of electric vehicle adoption.

Data from the IndexBox platform highlights the significant role China plays as the top oil import country, with values reaching USD 337.3 billion in 2023. Other leading import nations include the United States (USD 165.2 billion), India (USD 140.4 billion), South Korea (USD 86.5 billion), and Japan (USD 80.9 billion).

The oil market dynamics are further complicated by varying forecasts from major entities like the Vitol Group and the International Energy Agency, which foresee a stagnation in demand growth this decade due to a global pivot toward renewable energy sources. Rapidan’s report indicates short-term price reductions, possibly dropping to USD 55 a barrel owing to strong production from non-OPEC countries such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana. This situation might compel OPEC+ to either relinquish more market share or endure lower prices to force competitors out of the market, positioning the alliance in a difficult strategic dilemma.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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U.S. States and Metros Hit the Hardest by the Drop in Oil Prices

The COVID-19 pandemic has sent the world economy into turmoil as lockdowns around the world have caused economic activity to grind to a halt. The demand for oil has crashed in the wake of the growing pandemic, sending oil prices diving and even dipping below $0 per barrel. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. employs close to 130,000 people in the oil and gas extraction industry. Many of these workers now face uncertain employment.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data from the last two decades shows that employment in the oil and gas sector tends to rise and fall with crude oil prices. Price drops in 2014 resulting from oil surpluses caused the oil and gas sector to shed roughly a third of its workforce. Today, the pandemic combined with a lack of storage capacity for excess oil have caused the price to fall sharply again—a trend that threatens thousands of jobs.

The concentration of oil and gas extraction workers varies widely by location. At the state level, Oklahoma and Wyoming have the highest concentrations of workers in oil and gas extraction at 7.7 and 6.7 times the national average respectively. Texas, with a relative concentration of 5.8 times the national average, boasts the largest number of total oil and gas workers of any state. Many states such as Hawaii, Maine, and Rhode Island don’t produce oil or natural gas and have no employees reported by the Census Bureau.

To find the metropolitan areas hit hardest by the drop in oil prices, researchers at Construction Coverage used data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The researchers ranked metro areas according to the relative concentration of employment in the oil and gas extraction industry. Researchers also looked at the total number of oil and gas extraction workers, the median earnings for those workers, and cost of living. To improve relevance and accuracy, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 people were included in the analysis.

Here are the 25 major U.S. metropolitan areas with the highest concentrations of oil and gas workers:

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results for all major metros and U.S. states, you can find the original report on Construction Coverage’s website: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-hit-hardest-by-drop-in-oil-prices

Report republished with permission

Japan’s Trade Deficit ‘Narrowly’ Declines in October

Los Angeles, CA – A weak yen and lower oil prices combined to boost Japan’s export volume and cut the country’s massive energy bill, narrowly reducing Japan’s trade deficit in October.

The development was a bright spot among otherwise gloomy data, including recent GDP figures that showed the country – the world’s number-three economy – had slipped into recession.

Japanese exports, led by mainly autos and steel, jumped nearly 10 percent last month with imports climbing by a modest 2.7 percent.

All in all, the new activity translated into a monthly trade deficit of $6 billion.

According to the new figures, the value of shipments to China rose 7.2 percent, while exports to North America climbed 8.5 percent and those to the European Union were up 5.4 percent.

The October boost in exports, say analysts, could be a flash-in-the-pan as Japan is facing tepid growth in the European Union and an overall slowdown in China’s economy, both key export markets.

Last week, the government released figures showing that Japan’s gross domestic product figures contracted 0.4 percent for the second straight quarter after suffering a 1.9 percent contraction in the previous three months.

11/24/2014