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What’s In Store For the 2021 Stock Market?

stocks

What’s In Store For the 2021 Stock Market?

The past 12 months have been an exciting and interesting time for all the stock exchanges around the world. Amid a global pandemic and political changes in dozens of developed nations, nearly all the key indicators showed surprising strength and durability, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500. The Dow took a temporary hit at the beginning of 2020 when COVID struck, but since then has come roaring back.

It not only made up all those lost points but has tacked on about 4,000 more, currently hovering close to the 35,000 mark. The S&P 500 did almost the same thing, falling rapidly from mid-February to mid-March of last year, only to recoup all the loss and rise even higher, now sitting near the 4,300 mark. Here’s what the rest of 2021 could have in store for anyone interested in taking part in the global securities markets.

What’s the Purpose of the Stock Market?

Before examining what the rest of the year has in store for corporations and investors, it’s important to recall the two reasons the securities markets came into existence. Even after more than a century of daily buying, selling, and deal-making, those two purposes still underpin the existence of all the major global exchanges. The first purpose is to allow organizations, also known as listed firms, the chance to acquire capital so they can go about their daily operations, grow, and prosper. Second to that, but no less vital, is that the exchanges give ordinary investors the ability to benefit by owning a piece of any entity that is listed on the trading board.

Businesses Raise Money as Needed

For example, a new business might not have enough luck raising the funds it needs via private sources, loans, and angel investors. When that happens, it has the chance to apply to appear on the exchange’s board and accept direct capital inflow from the public, through a network of brokers.

Private Citizens Can Earn a Living

For individuals who want to own a portion of any listed entity, shares are available for sale. There’s no limit on investing timelines or amounts, as long as the purchase is legally made through a licensed agent. Many stock market enthusiasts who want to earn regular income learn how to day trade and take part in daily sessions. By definition, day traders close out all their positions each day, never holding equity shares overnight.

Corporate Earnings Estimates

After the COVID pandemic restrictions eased up and the global economy began getting back to normal in early 2021, many corporations unexpectedly exceeded earnings expectations. As is the case with share prices, earnings can sometimes travel for a while on built-up momentum. But even though most of the prognosticators and Sunday morning TV shows were expecting to see 2020’s momentum die down heading into the new year, it was not as significant as expected. Then, dozens of major companies began reporting record earnings early in the second quarter of 2021, which means there’s likely a new wave of enthusiasm and optimism coming out of the pandemic.

Overall Direction and New Leaders

Since March of 2020, the overall direction of the equity markets has been generally upward. Even in the doldrums of the later part of last year, the general trajectory of share prices was up, a megatrend that has continued to this day. What new leaders are emerging? Some of the biggest winners of the past six months have included companies in sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, retail, and home improvement. Now that the economy is focused more on home delivery, online commerce, and working from home, merchants who have plugged into those major trends are enjoying broad-based success.

Low Risk, Not No Risk

Even the most diversified portfolio of blue-chip stocks still comes with risk. It’s essential for newcomers to the marketplace to understand that low risk is not the same thing as no risk. Anyone who puts their money on the line for the purposes of earning a profit from stocks, bonds, forex, options, commodities, or anything else, faces the ups and downs of the international economy. However, for prudent traders, there are multiple ways to minimize risk, keep an eye on account balances, and take part in one of the most exciting financial enterprises on earth: the international securities exchanges.

seed funding

How to Raise Pre-Seed & Seed Funding: 5 Alternative Strategies

Want to learn how to raise seed funding for your startup? You’re in the right place.

For growth-focused startups, getting access to capital early means that you can scale faster.

The seed round is the first official stage of equity funding. That means that you can expect to give up some ownership, typically in equity or a convertible note, in exchange for capital. (Earlier pre-traction rounds are sometimes called “pre-seed” funding, and may consist of a “friends and family” round, or acorn round.)

But how can you raise seed funding, or even pre-seed funding?

Venture capital is an option, albeit a longshot. Research shows that less than one percent of startups get VC funding. Of that fraction, just 2.2% of funding went to Black founders, and only 2.7% went to female founders. Plus, this process of pitching to VCs often takes months or even years. For many founders, VC funding isn’t really a viable option.

At this early stage, it’s unlikely your startup will qualify for a bank loan. Banks typically look for 3+ years of business history before even considering extending credit.

So if you’re an ambitious founder who doesn’t fit the mold, how can you raise pre-seed or seed funding?

Fortunately, a new wave of seed funding sources is emerging, designed to be more accessible and more founder-friendly. Here are 5 alternative ways to get seed funding for your startup.

Republic

Republic leads the venture crowdfunding space. It’s a platform app that lets startups raise capital through crowdfunding from individual and institutional investors. Said more simply, it’s Kickstarter for startups.

This crowdfunded approach lets startups raise pre-seed and seed funding from a healthy network of enthusiastic investors, without needing to spend hours on pitch meetings.

Republic does require startups to go through a tough screening process; only around 5% of startups will be accepted. That said, they do offer a unique opportunity to get in front of a lot of different investors quickly, without needing to pitch each individually. It’s a tough but streamlined way to get seed funding for your startup. Learn more about how they evaluate startups here.

If you decide you want to apply, you can do so here.

Chisos

Here at Chisos, we’re offering a brand-new way of investing in idea- and early-stage startups through a two-part approach we call a CISA. The CISA is a unique combination of equity and an income share agreement. Unlike other investment options, you can qualify for pre-seed and seed funding from Chisos even before you have a product or any revenue.

We’ve designed the CISA to be fair to founders. Here’s how:

-Repay the CISA with a percentage of your income, but only when that income is above $40K.

-When you repay the CISA, you’re also buying back some of the equity initially granted to Chisos.

-You have complete freedom to use the capital as you see fit.

-You’ll never pay more than 2x the original investment amount, adjusted for inflation.

We’re built on the idea that funding shouldn’t be limited to a tiny handful of founders. Instead, we’re on a mission to democratize entrepreneurship.

We’re writing checks of $15,000-50,000 to invest in idea-stage startups and side-hustle businesses. Want to see if you qualify for pre-seed or seed round funding?  Apply here.

KnowCap

If you’re planning to use seed funding to hire a team, why not skip a step and trade equity for expertise? That’s the thinking behind KnowCap. KnowCap connects companies to a team of startup experts that cover key functions, including marketing, sales, engineering, and strategy.

These experts work directly with founders to provide coaching, strategic guidance, and in many cases, actually creating value by building an MVP of the product, creating new brand identity, and setting up calls with potential customers. In exchange for access to this “knowledge capital,” founders grant KnowCap equity.

While it’s not pre-seed or seed funding in a traditional sense, it’s a great alternative to help founders build a strong foundation from which the company can grow.

Learn more about KnowCap here.

Zebras Unite

Zebras Unite is a startup co-op that’s built explicitly to serve founders that traditional VC overlooks and undervalues; namely, women and people of color. What started as a community has evolved into a source of capital.

You’ve probably heard startups described as “unicorns”; Zebras Unite is an intentional rejection of the unicorn model of success. (You can read more about this concept here.)

Zebras Unite is the place for founders who believe that business should support society, rather than define it. If you’re building a community-focused, mission-driven organization, you’ll probably feel right at home in the Zebras Unite ecosystem.

To be considered for funding, join the Zebras Unite online community.

State & Federal Startup Grants

There is a bevy of grants for early-stage startups and small businesses. Unlike most other seed funding sources, grants don’t require you to give up equity or pay the money back.

Startup grant programs typically focus on serving otherwise underserved groups, such as minorities, veterans, people from rural communities, and non-profits. They also typically focus on advancing specific sectors, like education, technology, and healthcare.

Unfortunately, there’s no central database that covers all available grant opportunities, so you’ll need to spend time researching if you pursue this path. Here’s a list of a few good places to start, including:

Grants.gov

OpenGrants

Challenge.gov

SBIR.gov

So that’s it! Now you know 5 new ways to raise seed funding for your startup.

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William Stringer is the Co-Founder and CEO of Chisos Capital, a company that invests in ideas, and the founders with potential to bring them to life. Through our proprietary investment approach, the CISA, we write checks to idea- and early-stage entrepreneurs. Inspired by the desert oasis of the Chisos mountains, Chisos Capital seeks to democratize opportunity.

equity

Tales from the Trenches: Founder Equity and Founder Agreements in the Pandemic

From day one, it’s crucial to put your company on the right path. With proper planning, you can avoid a number of common problems that would make investors run for the doors, such as co-founder disputes, tax issues, and cap tables. Startup equity is one of those things that most founders struggle with unless they have an MBA.  But as with all of life, founders’ paths may grow apart for different reasons. It’s one thing when the “divorce” is peaceful, but sometimes situations become very complicated. In a blink of an eye, you’re fighting over the “custody” rights with someone who was previously on your side.

With the added stresses of the pandemic—working from home or working from anywhere—and the pivots required for businesses to adapt their models and work styles to the new normal, we are seeing significant pressure placed on the relationships between founders and other founders, between boards and founders, and between investors and founders.

Founder equity splits. When considering how to initially split founder equity among the various co-founders, some of whom may be present, and some of whom are merely a twinkle in your eye, startups should think long term.

First, consider the relative contributions each person will make.  While everyone says they are “all in” at the start, are they quitting their jobs? Have they invented something? Is their role critical to fundraising or engineering? Who is adding the most value now, and who will add value later? What cash is available? Get clear on these issues from the start and understand that they will evolve over time.

Types of startup equity. As to the types of startup equity, they are generally structured as common stock at formation. The price per share is usually insignificant, or what is referred to as “par value,” a “peppercorn,” or close to zero. This is referred to as “sweat equity,” which is vested over time.

Founder stock terms can also include some of the elements typically found in preferred stock, such as governance rights, liquidation preferences, and super-voting rights. Special founder terms can be a red flag for venture capital investors, and for that reason, particular consideration should be given as to whether such terms are reasonably obtainable.

At formation, cash investors typically receive a convertible note, a simple agreement for future equity, or series seed preferred stock. Some founders put in cash at the formation and structure the cash investment in one of these instruments.

Who gets what? There are four groups of people who typically get equity in the early stages:  founders and co-founders, advisors, investors, and employees, and consultants. Who gets what is more art than science, and there is no simple answer. Numerous websites offer purported “co-founder equity split” calculators and practical advice.

Equity incentive plans. Stock options are the typical currency for employees, consultants, and advisors of startup companies. Restricted stock units, restricted stock awards, phantom stock, and a large assortment of hybrid instruments may also exist.  In early-stage and venture-backed startups, the currency is usually a stock option. Stock options can be structured in a number of ways for tax purposes. Typically, they can be “incentive stock options” or “ISOs.” If options do not qualify for ISO status, they are referred to as “non-qualified” stock options, or “NSOs.” An ISO gives an employee the right to buy shares with the profit taxed at the capital gains rate, not the higher rate for ordinary income.

Vesting. Founder equity, like stock options, typically vests over time. Founder equity is usually subject to repurchase by the company, with one-fourth of the equity ceasing to be subject to repurchase, or vested, after a one-year cliff. After that, founder equity vests monthly or quarterly until the culmination of four years from the formation. Sometimes, repeat entrepreneurs can obtain equity without offering the right of repurchase or reverse vesting, or with reduced vesting, but four years is the standard.

Stock options are not actual ownership, and there is no cash outlay upon grant. These options become exercisable after one year from the initial vesting date, which is usually the date of grant, and they vest in monthly or quarterly installments until four years have transpired from the initial vesting date. In order to exercise stock options, the holder pays the exercise price, which for tax purposes must correspond to fair market value upon the date of the grant. Unless the option has ISO status, upon subsequent exercise and sale, it would be taxed at ordinary income tax rates.

Cap tables. Founders are well served to ensure that their companies use a technology-enabled vendor to store the company’s capitalization records in an automated, secure, and cloud-available format.

409A valuations. In a nutshell, Section 409A of the Internal Revenue Code provides a safe harbor. It suggests that the IRS will not challenge an exercise price as being below fair market value if a third-party independent valuation firm established the fair market value, and that value was approved by the board of directors, all within the prior year of the grant. While there is much fine print and some exceptions, a 409A valuation is generally important to obtain once a year and after each financing round. This risk of doing nothing is that the IRS could argue that the option was granted below fair market value and impose a higher tax rate on the income or gain.

When things change. After your company’s formation is complete, the founder equity has been divided, the equity incentive plan approved, and stock options doled out, life goes on. The world turns, and things change. Co-founders join, co-founders leave, co-founders fight, key employees join and depart, venture capital is raised, and M&A transactions come and go.

Founder roles adjust over time. It’s only natural. So, as well, should their salaries, bonuses, commissions, downside protections, and equity stakes. These are all easy to adjust when things are going well, but what about when things go sideways? Management carve-out plans can provide incentives for people to struggle through a tough spot.

Founder break-ups and departures. When founders leave, the first questions asked are whether the equity is vested and what happens to it. If unvested, the company should repurchase it at the issue price. For vested equity, founders will want it bought back at fair market value, and investors won’t want precious dollars going out the door to provide liquidity to someone who is leaving. Deals are struck where founders have something that investors want, like super-voting rights, board control, and exit rights. When the parties can’t agree, founders who push the envelope too far risk getting recapitalized and diluted, being terminated for cause, undergoing investigation, and having their information rights clipped. Does the founder have the right to severance? Is it enough to buy peace?  Non-competition agreements post-termination of employment are generally not enforceable in California, so this can be another carrot that departing founders can dangle in exchange for a buyout of their shares. Will the remaining team know where the bodies are buried, or is a consulting agreement with the departing founder required to make sure her or his services are available when needed? Was there a bonus due? A commission? Inevitably, companies and departing founders will need to get along to ensure a good exit.

Mergers and acquisitions. It is not uncommon for companies to be put up for sale when a founder departs, and market participants expect it.  So for boards and founders in a deadlock, is it the right time to bring things to a boil? Who constitutes the universe of potential strategic and financial buyers? Is it feasible to raise a growth equity round or “minority recap” with primary and secondary capital to reshuffle the C-suite and the cap table? Is a management carve-out plan needed? A new retention plan? Or restructuring? Potential scenarios abound…

What happens next. Invariably, after a founder divorce, the parties need to find a way to get along…in the board room…to raise capital…to help sell the business…to market the message…to evangelize the mission.

Things sometimes fall apart. Founders have to know how to keep things together until the next off-ramp is in sight.

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Louis Lehot is the founder of L2 Counsel. Louis is a corporate, securities, and M & A lawyer, and he helps his clients, whether they be public or private companies, financial sponsors, venture capitalists, investors or investment banks, in forming, financing, governing, buying and selling companies. He is formerly the co-managing partner of DLA Piper’s Silicon Valley office and co-chair of its leading venture capital and emerging growth company team. 

L2 Counsel, P.C. is an elite boutique law firm based in Silicon Valley designed to serve entrepreneurs, innovative companies and investors with sound legal strategies and solutions.