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More Than Half of Retail Businesses are Using Inflation to Price Gouge

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Special Reports

More Than Half of Retail Businesses are Using Inflation to Price Gouge

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As the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has surged in recent months affecting both retailers and consumers gearing up for the holidays.

In November, Digital.com surveyed 1,000 retail owners and executives to discover how inflation is impacting profitability, pricing, and discount offers this shopping season.

Our findings revealed that more than half of retail businesses are using inflation to drive up prices higher than what’s necessary to offset increased costs.

Key Findings

-56% of retail businesses say inflation has given them the ability to raise prices beyond what’s required to offset higher costs

-Over half of retailers have increased prices by 20% or more on average

-52% of businesses are offering fewer or no discounts this holiday season

-Shrinking discounts and increasing price of complementary products are most popular ways businesses are driving up prices

56% of retail businesses have increased profits beyond inflation to boost profitability

When asked how recent inflation has impacted profitability, 56% of retail businesses responded that inflation gave them the ability to raise prices beyond offsetting costs.

Large enterprises (LEs) were more likely than small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to say they were using inflation to more than offset costs at a rate of 63% compared to 52% of SMBs and 55% of SMEs.

“What’s interesting about our findings is that more than half of respondents say that while they used inflation as a reason for price increases, they expect higher profits as a result,” says Digital.com’s small business expert, Dennis Consorte.

“In other words, businesses are inflating already inflated prices in order to turn a bigger profit amid people’s fears over uncertain times.”

Automobile, e-commerce, and electronics industries most likely to hike prices

Our survey revealed that the automobile, e-commerce, and electronics and appliances industries were most likely to be capitalizing on inflation.

Of the businesses we surveyed who belonged to the automobile industry, 72% indicated they raised prices to more than offset costs. Sixty-five percent of e-commerce and 62% of electronics and appliances businesses also admitted to price gouging.

Over half of retailers have increased prices by 20% or more

Eighty-five percent of businesses have increased prices, and 55% of retailers have increased prices by 20% or more on average.

Of those who have increased prices, 28% of large enterprises increased prices 50% or more, compared to 6% of SMEs and 12% of SMBs.

When asked why they have increased prices, 66% of businesses cited rising inflation, 69% supply chain issues, and 57% increased demand.

52% of businesses are offering fewer or zero discounts this holiday season

This holiday season, 38% of businesses will offer fewer discounts than last year, and 14% will not offer any at all.

Smaller businesses are offering fewer discounts this holiday season compared to larger enterprises. Fifty-seven percent of SMBs and 56% of SMEs say they plan to offer fewer or no discounts, compared to 36% of LEs.

It comes as no surprise to Consorte that many small businesses are offering fewer discounts this year.

“Many small businesses are still recovering from lockdowns and other COVID mandates. With the Omicron variant upon us and inflation at a 30-year high, decision-makers feel uncertain about future revenue. For them, fewer discounts could be seen as a way to keep the doors open through the holiday season.”

Clothing and accessories (74%), electronics and appliances (66%), and furniture and home furnishings (57%) are the industries that are most likely to be offering fewer discounts this holiday season.

Businesses are increasing price of complementary products, shrinking discounts

Among businesses that have increased prices, 55% shrank discounts, and 48% increased the price of complementary products.

Furniture and home furnishings (51%), health and personal care (50%), clothing and accessories (50%), and electronics and appliances (45%) are the industries that are most likely to have shrunk discounts.

The industries most likely to have raised the price of complementary products include automobile (61%), building material, gardening equipment, and supplies (46%), electronics and appliances (45%), and health and personal care (43%).

Businesses are also using pricing tactics such as shrinkflation, increased surcharges, and bundling to drive up prices.

“We’re still in a period of fear and uncertainty about the economy and legislative responses to COVID-19. We can expect unusual pricing tactics for as long as this continues. Some merchants will continue to raise prices out of fear, while others will take advantage of their customers’ fears to realize higher profit margins. When the Zeitgeist of our time returns to baseline, so too will merchants in their pricing methodologies,” says Consorte.

Methodology

All data found within this report was derived from a survey commissioned by Digital.com and conducted online by survey platform Pollfish. In total, 1,000 U.S. retail business owners and executives were surveyed. Appropriate respondents were found via a screening question. To qualify for the survey, each respondent had to own a retail business or be an employed executive at a retail business. This survey was conducted on November 18, 2021. All respondents were asked to answer all questions truthfully and to the best of their abilities. For full survey results, please email julia@digital.com.

This article originally appeared here. Republished with permission. 

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

China Will Continue to Be a Major Contributor to Global Trade Growth in 2022

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Despite the twin impacts of the pandemic and the US-China trade war, economic indicators suggest that China will continue to grow rapidly through the next year and will be one of the biggest contributors to global trade growth in 2022. 

Indeed, in some ways, the current trajectory of China’s economic growth and trade surplus – both highly positive – is a return to normal. Though many feared that the pandemic and the US trade war would cause long-term, structural damage to China’s trading and economic infrastructure, it appears that this was not the case. In fact, changes to the way supply chains work may mean that China is now in a stronger position than it was at the beginning of the pandemic – a luxury that other countries can only dream of.

In this article, we’ll look at the most recent economic indications from China, explain what they mean for global trade, and see how analysts and governments in the West are responding to these signs.

Positive indications

First, let’s look at the state of the Chinese economy. Here, the news is very positive. On almost any measure that is commonly used as a proxy for consumer demand – the Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI), electricity consumption, bank lending, etc. – the Chinese economy is booming. 

Though many analysts expected that consumer demand would be significantly down in 2021, in actuality, China is experiencing strong demand in both domestic and foreign markets. The Chinese government continues to invest heavily in making China a tech superpower, and so far, they are mostly succeeding. 

There are some complexities hidden behind this headline, though. One is that China has seen heavy food price inflation over the past few months driven, in part, by the US-China trade war. For many households in the country, food makes up a sizable proportion of the household budget. 

On the other hand, it seems that the pandemic has not affected the Chinese economy to anywhere near the degree that some experts expected. The transition to remote working for office workers, for instance, went more smoothly than had been predicted and occurred without a net loss to the economy. This was the case in some other countries too – remote workers contributed $1.2 trillion to the US economy alone last year, a 22% increase from 2019 – but it was especially pronounced in China.

 

Increased foreign trade

Since both domestic and foreign demand for Chinese goods remains high, we are likely to see China’s share of global trade increase over the next year. This is also a continuation of the pre-pandemic trend, which saw gradually increasing volumes of high-value finished goods being exported from China.

When it comes to global trade volumes, the picture is not completely positive, however. Though demand for Chinese goods remains high, the pandemic has imposed new restrictions and complexities on exporters. This is likely to slightly reduce trading volumes over the next year. That said, China is already a titan when it comes to global trade, and a slight reduction in growth is not likely to affect that. 

Liang Ming of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation predicted that the country’s total foreign trade will be near five and a half trillion by the end of 2021. In fact, since that prediction was made, market conditions have only grown more positive for Chinese exporters. 

Many manufacturers in the country have used enforced lockdown periods to update and improve their logistics and supply chains for the post-Covid world, and many of their trading partners have come out of the pandemic more quickly than expected. 

Calls for decoupling

All this is great news for China, and specifically for Chinese exporters. It might not be such good news, however, for the countries that buy goods from China. This includes the US and the majority of European nations, all of whom are heavy consumers of Chinese-made goods. Many analysts are alarmed at the growing dominance of China in global trade, pointing out that this could be dangerous for the world’s privacy and safety.

The numbers are certainly impressive. Official data released from the Chinese government in July 2021 showed that for the first half of the year the country’s foreign trade surged to 18.07 trillion yuan, equal to roughly $2.79 trillion USD. This was despite many industries being affected by the US trade war and despite calls in the US for the country to transition away from its dependence on China.

There are other concerns about granting China a larger portion of the global economy. Specifically, concerns about the privacy of data collected by Chinese companies remain high, as do concerns that Chinese banks are being used to launder money on behalf of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels.

All of these concerns have led some think tanks to call for a “decoupling” from the Chinese economy. This would involve selected trade embargos in order to promote domestic production of consumer items in Western economies and to give these economies time to make back some of the gap that is opening in global trade.

Conclusion

Ultimately, the trajectory that China now finds itself on – with a growing economy and a rapidly increasing trade surplus – has been the norm for much of the last two decades. And if a global pandemic and a US-directed trade war has been unable to stop the growth of the Chinese share of global trade, it’s unlikely that anything will. 

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

3 Reasons Why it’s Going to Take Longer to Unravel the Current Global Logistics Mess

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If you’re involved in global shipping or even a consumer who recently purchased furniture or other bulky items, you’re well aware of the sorry state of global logistics. The pandemic and its knock-on effects have created global shipping chaos and driven astronomical shipping costs. While we are all enduring the consequences, the big question now is when will global logistics return to normal? Will it happen after peak season this year? I am less optimistic about a quick turnaround. Here are three data points that highlight why I believe the current situation will drag on longer than anticipated.

Inventories are way down and retailers want to hold more of it in the future.

The pandemic created a unique situation. Manufacturing and distribution capacity declined, but consumer demand didn’t. Retailers have seen their inventories cut as consumers continue buying, but they cannot replenish their stocks. According to the US Census Bureau, the inventory to sales ratio is down more than 25% since the beginning of the pandemic (see Figure 1).

The chart also shows a general decline over 2 decades in the inventory to sales ratio, which is a testament to retailers and their logistics partner continually improving their supply chain performance. That trend is about to change as many retailers are deciding to hold more inventory as a hedge against greater supply chain uncertainty. So, what does that mean? Retailers will be buying more than what they need in the short-term to build their stocks to larger acceptable levels. This will continue to put more pressure on supply chains and logistics operations—not reduce it—even after the peak season ends this year.

Figure 1: Retail Inventory to Sales Ratio

Inflation is up, but still viewed as manageable and history says it can go higher before stunting demand.

The Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) just released its revised forecast for inflation. The forecast did rise by 1% to 3.4% for the year; however, that is more than manageable and unlikely to suppress consumer demand as longer-term inflation is being forecasted at 2%. In addition, if inflation were to go higher, that wouldn’t necessarily mean that US import volumes would decline and take pressure off the current situation. The last time inflation breached 5%, as it did in May, was in August 2008 when it reached 5.8%. As you can see from the US maritime import chart (see Figure 2), import volumes continued to increase.

Figure 2: US Maritime Import Volume

Source: Descartes Datamyne

The economy continues to reopen and the Fed expects robust job creation through the fall. This is a good news/bad news story. As states continue to relax or eliminate COVID-19 related restrictions, parts of the economy such as restaurants, tourism and other service industries will return to more normal capacity, increasing demand for goods many of them import. The Fed is also predicting robust job growth into the fall. The continued opening up of business will drive job growth and consumer spending as those hit hardest by the pandemic have more cash to spend. Again, more pressure on global supply chains.

The protracted situation means that short-term plans that increase costs but get goods to market may make more sense than waiting for the global shipping situation to get better on its own. However, retailers and other importers should evaluate their supply chains now for the alternate sources and paths their goods take to get to market. This evaluation should take into account the impact that highly concentrated and congested trade lanes have on the risk to fulfilling customer demand. For example, the concentration of manufacturing in countries such as China and the use of ports like LA/Long Beach. We can see today the delays that are happening and it won’t take much to see additional delays at some level with disruptions in the future. Now is the time for importers to engineer the risk out of the supply chain.

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Archives, Banking, Global Trade Daily, Special Reports

Why Investors Need to be Wary of the Investment Herd Mentality

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The past year has been one of exceptional volatility – volatility for personal lives while dealing with COVID restrictions, volatility in job markets due to government-mandated shutdowns, and volatility in markets as economies collapsed and began to rebound. After a drop of over 10,000 points from February to March 2020 at the onset of the COVID crisis, the Dow Jones Industrial Index entered a strong recovery. Investors flooded back into the market, driving prices to new heights in early 2021.

Much of this new investment came as investors responded to positive news about the launch of COVID vaccines and the prospect of world economies reopening. Markets began to show the effects of herd mentality investing as investors pursued profit opportunities. While herd investing may lead to profitable spikes, it is also capable of causing sudden drops with accompanying losses for the herd. 

Understanding the herd

Humans are naturally prone to herding. While perhaps originally a protective measure against predators, herding spread through every facet of human life. Throughout their lives, people join any number of herd groups – social groups, religious groups, political groups, sports groups and others. They rely on the mutual support found in these settings and the information sharing that occurs in the group.

Herd investing behavior has many underlying causes. Some seek to achieve the same wealth and status as the successful investors they see in the news. Many people who know little to nothing about investing but who also want to take advantage of investing in markets rely on the herd to provide them with information about investment opportunities. Many investors just have FOMO – the fear of missing out on a good thing. 

Frequently, it is uninformed investors, and those with the most to lose, who form the bulk of the investing herd. Trying to get rich quickly by following the example of successful traders, they wind up losing everything. 

But even with post-COVID volatility roiling markets, there are good opportunities in the markets for informed investors who pursue sensible investing strategies.

The dangers of following the herd

Unfortunately, herd mentality all too frequently results in the herd running off a cliff together. The history of markets is replete with examples of investors driving markets drastically upwards, only for herd panic to crash those markets. 

The dangers of herd investing first appeared in the 17th-century tulip buying craze in the Netherlands. Tulipmania, as it is now known, was the first market bubble. Just before the bubble burst, the most sought-after tulips were selling for upwards of 5000 florins. 

To put this in context, at the time, you could buy four oxen (and not just any oxen, fat ones) for 480 florins. A thousand pounds of cheese was 120 florins, and the equivalent of 65 kegs of beer was 32 florins. The cost of tulips grew to exceed annual salaries, and the most expensive tulips cost more than a house. 

Using margin contracts, buying on credit, leveraging assets, investors did whatever was needed to get their hands on tulip bulbs. But prices began to fall, and the market quickly and completely collapsed, leaving many investors bankrupt.

History has repeated itself several times since the beginning of the 20th century. The Great Depression of the 1920s, the dotcom bubble in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the subprime mortgage crisis culminating in the housing crash of 2008 are all examples of herd-driven bubbles. 

Herd activity drives market volatility

Herd investing appears to be increasingly driving market volatility. The past year alone has seen several glaring examples of herd-created bubbles.

The herd creates crypto bubbles

A more recent example of herd investing is the explosion of interest in the cryptocurrency markets. From October 2020 to April 2021, the price of Bitcoin increased sixfold, from $10,000 to over $60,000. Since that time, it has lost a third of its value. And this is the second crypto bubble in less than five years. In early 2018, Bitcoin lost 65% of its value in a single month. By the end of 2018, cryptocurrency markets had seen a larger percentage decline than the stock market did during the dotcom bubble.

Cryptocurrency is an attractive investment. But it is notoriously volatile, and the crypto investing herd quickly responds to even minute suggestions about price direction. Tesla founder Elon Musk’s support for dogecoin helped its price skyrocket in early 2021. But when he made a joke on Saturday Night Live about dogecoin being a “hustle,” the price quickly plummeted.

Robinhood and GameStop

The GameStop price rollercoaster in early 2021 is a particularly alarming example of herd investing because it involved an intentional manipulation of the herd. A group of investors decided to punish investment firms that were relying on shorting stocks by driving up the prices of those stocks. They then promoted the stocks on an investment board on Reddit. GameStop became the poster child for their efforts, but other frequently shorted stocks also began to rise.

GameStop’s price skyrocketed as social media-based investors followed the Reddit group. Trading volume increased as well, with GameStop becoming the most traded stock on the S&P 500 at one point. Once again, Elon Musk got involved, sending out a tweet about GameStop that exacerbated the frenzy, causing the price to nearly double shortly after the tweet. 

GameStop quickly fell again after the Robinhood trading platform and others suspended trading. The fallout from this event is ongoing.

Fears about post-COVID inflation

At present, the herd is spooked about the prospect for significant inflation as world economies rebound from the COVID crisis. Consumer prices have been rising, even more so than expected at this point in the recovery. And, despite reassurances from the Fed that the inflationary spike is temporary, the fears of the herd have made themselves known in the markets. 

The fastest increase in the consumer price index in nearly fifteen years caused selloffs in the markets. At the same time, yields on treasury bonds have been rising. Home prices are also experiencing rapid upswings, leading to fears of another housing bubble.

The herd may be edging towards its next cliff.

Don’t get trampled by the herd 

Knowledgeable and prudent investors can still take advantage of hot market opportunities while avoiding suffering substantial losses by simply following the herd. Portfolio diversification is one important tool savvy should employ to counteract the effects of market volatility. Balancing risky herd-friendly investments with more stable options like bonds, mutual funds, or even gold helps portfolios avoid wild swings from market volatility.

There are also positive herd-style options, such as investment funds, that take advantage of the knowledge of investment experts. According to London-based financial advisor Alex Williams of Hosting Data, investment funds are a collection of capital that is owned by a conglomeration of investors. 

“These investors collect shares together, while each member remains in full ownership and control of their own individual shares,” says Williams. “The benefit to investment funds is that you have a wider selection of investment options and opportunities. You can also get access to better management expertise and there’s less commission than you’d be able to get on your own.”

And for those investors who do want to rely on social media, like the Reddit GameStop investors, without risking the downsides of herd investing, there are more well-founded options. Social investing platforms (distinct from socially responsible investment platforms) allow inexperienced investors to benefit from the knowledge and insights of experienced traders through copy trading and mirror trading.

Conclusion

With a bit of effort and prudent selection of a range of investments, even the most novice investors can take advantage of a booming stock market while protecting themselves from the whims of the herd.