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Washington Halts Port Fees in U.S.–China Maritime Truce, Easing Pressure on Global Shipping

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Washington Halts Port Fees in U.S.–China Maritime Truce, Easing Pressure on Global Shipping

The White House has confirmed a one-year suspension of U.S. port fees and other measures imposed under the Section 301 investigation targeting China’s dominance in global shipbuilding, logistics, and maritime sectors. The move, effective November 10, 2025, marks a major de-escalation in the trade tensions that have unsettled global shipping markets throughout the year.

Read also: Xeneta: U.S.–China Truce Offers Relief, But Container Rates Set to Sink Deeper Into 2026

Announced as part of a broader trade accord between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping last week in Busan, South Korea, the suspension covers all “responsive actions” tied to the Section 301 probe, while both sides negotiate a longer-term maritime framework.

“The United States will suspend for one year the implementation of the responsive actions taken pursuant to the Section 301 investigation on China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance,” the White House said in its fact sheet. “During this time, the U.S. will continue negotiations with China while deepening cooperation with Korea and Japan to revitalize American shipbuilding.”

Reciprocal Steps from China

In exchange, China will roll back its own retaliatory measures, including sanctions on several shipping entities—believed to include units of Korean shipbuilder Hanwha—and suspend counter-fees on U.S.-linked vessels for one year.

The port fees had their origin in a Section 301 petition filed in March 2024 by the United Steelworkers (USW) and a coalition of labor unions. The petition accused Beijing of using state subsidies and non-market practices to dominate global shipbuilding. Following that complaint, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) ruled in January 2025 that China’s maritime and shipbuilding policies were “unreasonable” under U.S. trade law.

“Today, the U.S. ranks 19th globally in commercial shipbuilding, producing fewer than five ships a year, while China builds over 1,700,” said Katherine Tai, former USTR under the Biden administration. “China’s dominance in this sector undermines fair competition and remains the biggest obstacle to reviving U.S. shipbuilding.”

Suspension Covers Broad Maritime Actions

The White House said the suspension applies not only to the port fees on China-linked ships—introduced October 14—but also to potential tariffs on Chinese-built cranes and cargo-handling equipment, fees on foreign-built car carriers, and rules tied to LNG shipping incentives.

While the move relieves immediate financial strain on shipping operators, it also raises questions about the future direction of U.S. industrial maritime policy.

Industry Divided on Impact

Labor representatives expressed mixed reactions. Roy Houseman, Legislative Director for the United Steelworkers, called the suspension a “truce with loose ends,” warning that Washington still lacks a coherent plan to rebuild domestic shipyard capacity.

“Fifty-three percent of all global ship orders by tonnage in the first eight months of 2025 went to China,” Houseman said. “That level of concentration is unhealthy. We need policies that genuinely reinvigorate U.S.-based shipbuilding.”

Shipping industry groups, however, broadly welcomed the decision. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) described the suspension as “a positive and stabilizing step,” noting that the earlier fee regime had already “posed significant challenges and disruptions” to global trade.

World Shipping Council President Joe Kramek echoed the sentiment:

“Global trade flows best when it flows freely. The suspension of ship fees by both the U.S. and China is a win for exporters, importers, and consumers alike.”

Next Steps: Regulatory Details Still Pending

Despite the White House confirmation, maritime legal experts cautioned that the details still hinge on upcoming regulatory filings.

“The administration’s fact sheet sets the timeline, but the formal regulatory language will define the true scope of the suspension,” said Brian Maloney, partner at Seward & Kissel’s Maritime & Transportation Group. “The USTR’s public comment period for the Section 301 probe closes November 10, so final regulatory action will likely follow shortly after.”

For now, the temporary suspension offers a welcome reprieve for shippers caught between dueling trade measures—but with only a one-year window, industry observers say the truce may simply postpone deeper policy battles over how to rebuild U.S. shipbuilding competitiveness in the face of China’s global maritime dominance.

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Pressure Points: How Geopolitical Tension and Economic Flux Are Reshaping the Global Shipping Container Market

Container prices have eased slightly, but UK demand is rising. Orders for new one-trip containers have tripled since Q1, as companies try to stay ahead of rising freight costs and potential delays.

Read also: Container Shipping Profits Sink 56% in Q2 as US Tariffs Cloud Outlook

Red Sea diversions are still adding time and cost. In the Strait of Hormuz, tensions are affecting oil prices and shipping activity. These global issues are now starting to influence UK supply.

Here, we’ll look at what that could mean for availability, pricing, and procurement decisions in the months ahead.

Longer wait times for stock

Some carriers are now quoting up to £232 per 20ft unit to reposition empty containers into the UK, a cost they previously absorbed. It’s part of a wider shift: global volumes might be softening, but UK delivery, depot space, and timing pressures are pushing buyers to act early.

That’s especially true in time-critical sectors like construction, infrastructure, and retail, where the risk of delay outweighs the potential savings from holding off.

“A few years ago, buyers could afford to wait for prices to settle,” says Andrew Thompson. Chief Executive Officer at Cleveland Containers. “Now, they’re planning further ahead to make sure stock arrives when it’s needed, without extra surcharges or hold-ups.”

Availability is no longer guaranteed just because demand is lower overall. Preferred formats, such as new 20fts or high cubes, are getting booked out faster, and once delivery windows tighten, even small changes in availability or spec can cause real disruption.

Rising production costs

Global freight rates have eased, but container prices aren’t following. That’s because the real pressure is now happening further upstream, where production costs are climbing.

Key materials like steel, marine plywood, and hardware fittings have all gone up over the past quarter. Chinese and Southeast Asian manufacturers are already pricing these increases into forward orders for Q3 and Q4.

Steel is the biggest factor, as prices for hot-rolled coil, the base material used in container walls and frames, are up year-on-year and remain volatile due to energy costs and regional supply constraints. Plywood used for container flooring has also jumped, as export restrictions limit supply.

For UK buyers, this means current factory quotes are already 8-12% higher than last year, and that’s before port charges, rerouting costs, or warehousing are added.

“We’re seeing the impact start at the factory,” says Thompson. “Costs are up on new builds, and that’s now feeding through to used units too. It’s not freight driving prices this time, it’s what it costs to produce the container in the first place.”

Geopolitics

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting main shipping routes, affecting oil prices. Frontline’s suspension of freight contracts in the region shows how seriously carriers are treating the risk.

China remains a major importer of Iranian oil, so any disruption affects energy costs for manufacturers, especially for steel, paint, and plywood. That’s already feeding into container pricing.

“Oil volatility is showing up in supplier quotes,” says Thompson. “It’s not just freight, anything with an energy cost is going up.”

Red Sea diversions continue, but the bigger concern is how quickly these pressures spread. As with the 2021 Suez blockage, local disruption can have a global impact.

What UK Buyers should be watching now

UK container supply held steady through early 2025, but that’s already changing. Forward orders for one-trip 20fts have jumped, and depot turnover is accelerating. Stock is still available, but the units buyers want most, such as newbuilds, high-cubes, and CSC-certified containers, are booking out earlier and moving faster.

Pricing pressure is coming from both ends. Factory quotes are rising due to raw material costs and energy volatility, while rerouting and port delays continue to feed into landed prices. That’s pushing more buyers to act early, especially in sectors where timing and spec can’t be compromised.

Leasing is also trending up, particularly on projects with uncertain timeframes or tight budgets. But even here, availability is narrowing. For used stock, rising newbuild costs are quietly lifting replacement value, and that’s already starting to show in pricing.

What matters now is how these pressures interact. A shift in oil prices, a change in freight routing, or even a regional supply gap can push up costs quickly. And most buyers won’t feel it until the quoting stage, when timelines are fixed and flexibility is gone.

If you’re waiting for prices to drop or supply to catch up, you may already be behind the curve. Decisions made now, on spec, timing, or procurement route, will determine how exposed your business is heading into Q4.

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5 Risk Mitigation Strategies for High-Value International Shipments

A single error on a customs form or a momentary lapse in security at a port are everyday occurrences. However, for those transporting high-value international shipments, they can be the difference between a successful delivery and a fortune in losses. Professionals shouldn’t accept them as the cost of doing business. Risk mitigation strategies can insulate them from damage.

Read also: Digital Freight Platforms: Revolutionizing Global Shipping Operations

Understanding the Risks: What’s at Stake?

Most logistics professionals are used to supply chain disruptions. Around every four years, businesses experience delays lasting one to two months, which can cause losses equivalent to 30% of their annual earnings.

Severe weather and geopolitical events can cause delays along key trade routes. They may be unpredictable, but they are manageable with the right approach. Aside from typical disruptions, common risks include stolen, lost and damaged goods. Cyber threats also are happening more frequently, resulting in inflated freight costs and frustrated customers.

While regulatory issues don’t present an immediate danger, preventing them helps companies mitigate costly consequences. Managing documentation, import restrictions, and taxes is essential for preventing delays at customs and avoiding potential seizures of high-value international shipments.

Cargo Theft Tactics and Trends at a Glance

Decision-makers should prioritize theft prevention when developing risk mitigation plans. Amid the rise of e-commerce and expansion of international trade, cargo theft has evolved from disorganized, scattered incidents into a coordinated criminal enterprise. It can occur at truck stops, distribution centers, rail yards, rest areas or ports, so they must be vigilant.

According to the American Trucking Association, cargo theft causes over $200,000 in losses per incident on average. Annually, it costs the United States economy $35 billion. Strategic theft is more common than pilferage or straight theft — it increased by 1,500% from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.

Bad actors often pose as brokers by using deception to intercept high-value loads. The legitimate receiver deals with the fallout, fielding calls from frustrated trucking companies. Some criminal groups even run warehouses and online marketplaces to move stolen goods more easily. Tracing them is challenging since they use domain spoofing and virtual private networks.

Even simple operations can be costly. In May 2025, four men stole $3 million in televisions, which they planned to smuggle. Electronics comprise a significant portion of cargo thefts due to their high resale value. The thieves used semitrucks to steal trailers from a truck park and were only identified because a security guard recognized one of the vehicles.

Risk Mitigation Strategies for High-Value Goods

Since the global logistics environment is vast and complex, avoiding risk entirely is impossible. Instead, decision-makers should focus on reducing its likelihood or impact.

Secure Packaging and Handling Protocols

Sensitive and high-value international shipments require specialized packaging to withstand environmental conditions and impacts. Even with a significant upfront investment into custom solutions, companies should see a positive return on investment. Spending a few more cents per unit is more cost-effective than writing off inventory and paying for reshipping.

Paper and cardboard are lightweight but lack durability and provide poor protection. Unlike these conventional materials, polyethylene provides repeatable shock absorption and prevents static buildup. Packaging suppliers can cut or mold the foam cushioning to fit any high-value product to ensure it arrives at its destination safely.

Advanced Tracking and Monitoring Tools

Internet of Things sensors, blockchain technology, geofencing and artificial intelligence tools enhance traceability. They enable advanced data analytics for exhaustive visibility into the supply chain. Smaller fleets may be unable to upgrade every truck, but these tools are becoming more affordable as technology advances.

Continuous Driver and Vehicle Logging

Comprehensive preemployment screening and thorough credential verification are fundamental for mitigating insider threats. Businesses can guard against fictitious pickups with continuous location logs and unique pickup codes. Even if thieves convincingly impersonate drivers, they won’t be able to steal the load.

Shifting Financial Liability for Loss or Damage

External risk mitigation involves lessening the impact of threats beyond the organization’s control. As a bonus, it may shift financial liability, as other entities absorb the losses.

Transferring Risk to Insurance Providers

Coverage beyond limited liability is valuable when moving shipments exceeding tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Business leaders who get high-quality insurance shift financial liability to their carrier, taking the pressure off contingency planning. Of course, stopping potential threats is still crucial since claims may increase insurance premiums.

Strategic Partnerships and Vendor Vetting

Cargo thefts may originate as inside jobs, so thorough vetting is essential when establishing strategic partnerships. Moreover, working with an experienced freight forwarder can mitigate customs and regulatory compliance risks.

Due diligence and ongoing performance monitoring are key international shipping risk management strategies. Enforcing chain-of-custody documentation and tamper-evident solutions can help eliminate insider threats. When supply chain disruptions or crises occur, partners who communicate quickly and effectively will recover sooner.

The Art of Proactive Contingency Planning

International shipping risk management involves contingency planning. Business leaders and fleet owners who take a forward-thinking approach can respond effectively to challenges. Mastering it can help them maintain continuity and minimize product losses.

Data is the core component of any successful strategy. Where are thieves likely to strike? What high-value products are most commonly damaged during shipping? Do specific trade routes pose more problems than others? Combining historical and real-time information will generate accurate answers.

Developing incident management and crisis response plans is relatively easy. Those who can follow through demonstrate true mastery of the art of contingency planning. A strategy that looks good on paper doesn’t always translate well to real-world scenarios, so management should run simulations and source feedback to close gaps.

The Growing Volume of High-Stakes Freight

Thanks to the flourishing e-commerce sector, luxury goods, electronics and pharmaceuticals are constantly moving across borders. According to Grand View Research, the global freight transport market size will reach an estimated $72.97 billion in 2030 — up from $26.77 billion a decade prior. The export of sensitive and high-value goods will drive its value up.

As the volume and value of international shipments grow, logistics professionals and fleet owners are increasingly exposed to regulatory risks, in-transit damage and cargo theft. Risk mitigation strategies are becoming exponentially valuable, especially as trucking and marine cargo insurance premiums rise.

Protecting High-Value International Shipments

Even if everything works out, having a million-dollar shipment stolen or stuck in customs can be stressful. A proactive, technology-enabled risk mitigation strategy can help professionals avoid such headaches. Nothing is 100% effective, but that’s what insurance is for.

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Hapag-Lloyd Delivers Strong H1 2025 Results Amid Global Shipping Challenges

Hapag-Lloyd posted solid results for the first half of 2025, reporting a Group EBITDA of USD 1.9 billion despite trade volatility, port congestion, and security risks in the Red Sea.

Read also: Hapag-Lloyd Confident Amid U.S.-China Tariff Challenges

The German container carrier’s Liner Shipping segment handled 6.7 million TEU in the first six months of the year, up 11% from 2024, with revenues rising to USD 10.4 billion. Freight rates remained stable at around USD 1,400 per TEU, supported by growth on major East-West routes.

CEO Rolf Habben Jansen highlighted the company’s resilience:
“In a volatile market, we significantly increased our transport volume and ended the first half on a strong note. Our Gemini network has started very successfully, setting new standards in schedule reliability.”

Launched in February with Maersk, the Gemini Cooperation achieved 90% schedule reliability on key East-West trades in its first months. Optimization of the network is expected to continue through the second half of the year.

Hapag-Lloyd’s Terminal & Infrastructure division also posted growth, with EBITDA reaching USD 79 million and EBIT USD 37 million. In March, the company expanded its European footprint by acquiring a majority stake in CNMP LH in Le Havre, France.

For 2025, Hapag-Lloyd forecasts Group EBITDA of USD 2.8 to 3.8 billion and EBIT of USD 0.25 to 1.25 billion but warns that geopolitical tensions and volatile freight rates could impact results.

“In the second half, we’ll stay focused on quality, growth, and cost optimization,” Habben Jansen said. “We aim to help customers navigate uncertainty and hope new trade agreements will bring greater supply chain predictability.”

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Global Shipping Faces Historic Climate Turning Point as IMO Considers Emissions Tax

The global shipping industry is on the brink of a historic transformation as the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) holds pivotal talks this week in London to hammer out binding regulations aimed at cutting the sector’s climate impact.

Read also: Port of Long Beach Launches $57M Green Tech Push to Cut Emissions

At the heart of the negotiations is a proposal for the world’s first global emissions levy, which—if adopted—would mark a landmark commitment in the fight against climate change. The shipping sector, responsible for roughly 3% of global carbon emissions, has long evaded hard emissions rules. That could soon change.

The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) is reviewing a “basket” of measures, including a global marine fuel standard and a long-debated carbon pricing mechanism—ranging from a direct carbon levy to market-based schemes such as carbon credits.

Climate advocates are calling the talks “historic.”
“This would be an absolute game-changer,” said Sara Edmonson, global advocacy head at mining company Fortescue. “No other industry has made a global commitment of this size. Most countries haven’t either.”

But obstacles remain. The concept of a levy is politically sensitive, particularly in the U.S., Australia, and China. Some nations favor “levy-like structures”—economic measures that avoid the controversial term but achieve similar outcomes.

John Maggs of the Clean Shipping Coalition emphasized the stakes:
“It’s not a question of if we get agreement, but how ambitious and how effective it is—and how many unhappy countries are left in its wake.”

Small island nations—among the most vulnerable to climate change—are leading the charge. Fiji, the Marshall Islands, Vanuatu, Barbados, and others have pushed hard for a meaningful carbon price. Meanwhile, countries like Brazil, China, and Saudi Arabia have voiced strong opposition, citing concerns over trade competitiveness and economic inequality.

For Pacific Island leaders like Vanuatu’s Minister Ralph Regenvanu, the IMO talks offer a critical path forward, especially as broader UN climate negotiations under the UNFCCC are seen as too slow.
“This is a great opportunity,” he said. “A global measure adopted by a UN body with real teeth.”

The shipping industry, which moves 90% of the world’s trade, is one of the most difficult to decarbonize due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Yet momentum is building.

Angie Farrag-Thibault of the Environmental Defense Fund said success hinges on two key outcomes: a global fuel standard and a decisive economic signal.
“These steps must include a fair financing structure to help vulnerable countries,” she said, “while pushing the industry toward zero-carbon fuels at the pace we urgently need.”

As the MEPC wraps up talks on Friday, all eyes are on whether the IMO can deliver a deal that balances ambition, equity, and enforcement—potentially setting the tone for international climate policy for years to come.

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Trump’s Tariff Blitz Adds to Global Shipping Turmoil

The global ocean shipping industry, responsible for moving 80% of world trade, is bracing for intensified uncertainty as President Donald Trump escalates trade tensions with allies and rivals alike.

Read also: The Impact of Tariffs on American Consumers & Businesses

This comes as major players in the container shipping and supply chain industries gather at the S&P Global TPM conference in Long Beach, California, where carriers like MSC, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd—alongside logistics firms such as DSV and DHL—are set to navigate a shifting trade landscape. With protectionist measures on the rise, these companies face potential disruptions that could weaken container ship owners’ negotiating power and dent long-standing profit margins.

Tariffs and Trade Barriers Reshape Global Logistics

Trump has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and is pushing for a steep $1.5 million entry fee on Chinese-built vessels docking at U.S. ports. Further trade restrictions loom, including:

  • A potential 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian exports such as avocados, tequila, beef, lumber, and oil.
  • Additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.
  • Proposed 25% duties on select European Union imports.

Such moves have heightened concerns over trade flow disruptions, impacting businesses reliant on global supply chains. According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, “Unprecedented uncertainty is all around.”

Geopolitical Risks, Climate Challenges, and Inflationary Pressures

The world’s largest importer, the U.S., is shifting away from free trade at a time when global supply chains are already contending with higher costs due to extreme weather events and geopolitical instability. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi militants have forced carriers to reroute away from the Suez Canal, adding further strain to global shipping.

While U.S. container imports have surged ahead of expected tariff hikes, analysts warn of a looming slowdown once higher import taxes take effect, retaliation from trade partners ensues, and inflation-hit consumers absorb the rising costs. The Drewry World Container Index, a key freight rate benchmark, stood at $2,629 for a 40-foot container as of Thursday—75% below its pandemic-era peak of $10,377 in September 2021 and at its lowest level since May 2024.

“The geopolitical landscape has of course become more complex, which could lead to wild swings for freight rates in either direction, but our base case is for a moderation throughout 2025,” noted Jefferies analysts.

Shipping Fee Proposals Shake the Industry

Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. Trade Representative has proposed significant entry fees on Chinese-built vessels. Under this plan:

  • Chinese maritime operators, including state-owned COSCO, could face fees of up to $1 million per vessel.
  • Non-Chinese operators using Chinese-built ships could see port entry fees as high as $1.5 million.

While this measure may benefit South Korean and Taiwanese shipping firms, experts warn it could have far-reaching consequences for global supply chains and U.S. consumers, potentially driving up prices for everything from clothing and electronics to food and fuel.

“The economic burden on U.S. exporters and importers will be huge,” said container shipping expert Lars Jensen.

As the Biden administration’s protectionist trade agenda unfolds, the shipping industry is left navigating uncharted waters, with the potential for significant disruptions in global trade and logistics.

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African Ports Chart Course Toward Net-Zero Shipping

African nations are taking decisive steps to accelerate the continent’s green shipping transformation, aligning with global efforts to reduce maritime emissions. On February 6-7, over 200 delegates from 35 countries gathered in Mombasa, Kenya, for a workshop focused on implementing the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Revised Strategy for the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (IMO GHG Strategy).

Read also: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of EU Shipping Regulations

Organized by the IMO in collaboration with Kenya’s Ministry of Mining, Blue Economy, and Maritime Affairs, and the Danish Maritime Authority, the event emphasized actionable strategies for achieving net-zero emissions.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez highlighted the need for immediate, coordinated action: “The IMO’s climate ambition is clear. The focus now should be on action and implementation, and IMO stands ready to support African Member States in their efforts.”

Delegates proposed several initiatives to advance green shipping across the continent:

  • Accelerate ratification and implementation of MARPOL Annex VI, regulating ship emissions.
  • Develop and expand National Action Plans for GHG reduction.
  • Promote sustainable port development.
  • Boost production and availability of alternative fuels.
  • Foster green marine employment and investment opportunities.
  • Enhance seafarer training for green shipping competencies.

Hon. Hassan Ali Joho, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Mining, Blue Economy, and Maritime Affairs, stressed Africa’s pivotal role in the global green transition: “Our ports, shipping routes, and maritime industries are integral to global trade and must evolve in alignment with the net-zero emissions target by 2050. By doing so, we can create green jobs, attract investments, and build resilient economies while addressing the pressing challenges of climate change.”

Highlighting regional progress, Comorian officials successfully assessed the Port of Mutsamudu on Anjouan in October 2024, marking a milestone in partnership with the IMO to advance sustainable maritime practices.

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Global Shipping Market Faces Turbulence as Tanker Rates Surge on China Routes

In light of recent sanctions imposed by the US on Russia, the cost to hire oil supertankers on key routes to China has seen a dramatic increase, according to Bloomberg. This development underscores the sweeping impact of geopolitical tensions on the global shipping market.

Read also: Global Shipping Faces Turbulence: Chokepoint Disruptions Threaten Trade and Supply Chains

Following sanctions that affected approximately 160 tankers transporting Russian crude, daily rates for very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) on the Middle East-to-China route soared by 112% to $57,589 last Friday, as per Baltic Exchange data. Similarly, the US Gulf-to-China and West Africa-to-China journeys have experienced jumps of 102% and 90%, respectively.

Amid these developments, Chinese refiners are urgently sourcing crude oil from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas to offset the shortfall of Russian oil. A VLCC moving from the US Gulf to China was booked last week for $9.5 million, distinctly higher than the low-$7 million range seen in previous months. Moreover, Indian Oil Corp. continues to procure Middle Eastern barrels, further straining the available vessel capacity.

Compounding concerns is the potential for tanker rates to remain high if US President-elect Donald Trump, who is to be inaugurated later today, exerts more pressure on Iran. Junjie Ting, a Singapore-based shipping analyst at Oil Brokerage Ltd., noted, “Rates could hold at these levels if Trump dials up the pressure on Iranian oil shipments, which is more likely than not.”

The heightened demand for VLCCs impacts costs not only for these larger vessels but also for smaller ones such as Suezmax tankers, which can transport about 1 million barrels. This ripple effect is evident in shipping markets globally, with the SSY shipbroker report indicating climbing rates due to increased demand and constrained supply.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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C.H. Robinson: Trends and Anticipated Disruptions for 2025 Shipping 

C.H. Robinson’s Mike Short, president of Global Forwarding, provides insights into the trends and potential risks that shippers need to understand when planning for 2025 amid an increasingly disrupted shipping environment. With over 27 years of experience in global logistics and leading C.H. Robinson’s global freight division, which handles ~6,000 air and ocean shipments daily, Mike has seen and experienced a lot in the world of logistics. Here are some of the key considerations that Mike believes shippers need to pay attention to as the new year unfolds:

Read also: Supply Chain 2025 Predictions

As we approach 2025, the global supply chain landscape faces significant transformations. Global shippers are dealing with challenges like changing ocean carrier alliances, new government administrations, possible port strikes, and geopolitical conflicts. These events have already strained supply chains, and the situation is expected to intensify as we enter the first quarter.

The most important factor in navigating ongoing disruptions and building resiliency into supply chains at a time when they are growing increasingly complex globally, is to anticipate what is to come.

1. Global trade changes

Tariffs are top of mind for many as 2024 brought many trade and tariff changes and we expect more in the coming months. This includes, for example, the recent 35.5% tariff on imported electric vehicles from China by the European Union. Since over half the world went to the polls this year, it’s likely more global trade changes are on the horizon with new incoming leadership. For example, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump indicated that he plans to use tariffs during his presidency. And other country leaders have responded, which could start a cascade of trade changes across the globe, and therefore supply chain shifts.

Many shippers began diversifying several years ago after the pandemic highlighted the need for greater supply chain agility and are not starting at square one. In fact, looking specifically at the trans-Pacific lane, we’ve seen Chinese imported goods from the U.S. decrease 8 percent from 2017 to 2023. During that same time, other countries in Southeast Asia, Mexico, Canada, India, and even some Europe countries have increased almost equally across the board. It’s clear that shippers have already been shifting their supply chains to optimize their resilience and we expect that trend to continue.

Beyond near/re-shoring or decoupling from China, shippers are also looking for diversification across modes, such as ocean to air, full-container-load (FCL) to less-than-container-load (LCL), and even shifts in inland strategies. During the recent U.S. port strike, we helped many shippers execute different inland strategies, such as transloading, to make up for any time lost while their freight was stuck at the port.

2. Shifts in ocean carrier strategies

New ocean carrier alliances, which control 60% of the global container market, are bound to present a level of market disruption as we’ve seen during past alliance shifts. For example, while Gemini Cooperation’s strategy aims to reduce the number of port callings between Asia and North Europe by half – therefore shortening transit time by several days – smaller ports may be eliminated entirely from the route. This shift would not only impact ocean freight schedules, but will likely also shift how freight flows inland. The trans-Atlantic trade will also experience change with the Ocean and Premier Alliances forming a cooperation, which removes capacity between North America and Europe.

Another example is the new Port of Chancay in Peru, which aims to reduce shipping times between LATAM and Asia 10+ days by bypassing traditional routes through the U.S. Even if you’re not shipping between Asia and Peru, it is important to know that this new route not only bypasses a major consumer country, but could also consequently shifts rates and available capacity in other lanes.

3. Labor strikes

Many countries, including Canada, United States, Brazil, Australia, Italy, and India, have experienced port, rail and/or customs strikes this year. The jump in labor strikes started most notably in 2023, with a 280% year-over-year increase in activity. The trend continued in 2024 and isn’t expected to slow down. C.H. Robinson is already helping shippers prepare for a potential second U.S. port strike in January. Industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals are especially eager to create contingency plans since even a two-day strike could significantly disrupt operations due to their just-in-time inventory model.

4. Front-loading

Potential strikes, pending tariffs, and the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday have prompted shippers to front-load freight. While front-loading has typically been done via ocean, we are already seeing some priority freight shift to air in anticipation of a potential second U.S. port strike.

This behavior isn’t new — back in 2018, some shippers increased production and stockpiled freight before the U.S. Section 301 tariffs went into effect. The difference today is that front-loading is a common approach across a range of shippers. We will be watching how this enhanced focus on front-loading heading into 2025 may impact freight patterns as the year progresses.

 5. Ecommerce boom

The ongoing shift of air capacity to support ecommerce activity exiting Asia continues to impact other lanes. Recently, rates spiked on the trans-Atlantic route due to aircraft being reassigned to the trans-Pacific for ecommerce shipments. This shift in capacity has led to increased rates and reduced capacity on smaller volume lanes, a trend expected to persist as ecommerce demand from Asia remains strong.

 This industry will be one to watch as it continues to exert a significant influence on global air freight supply and demand. And as air forecasting becomes more difficult, it’s key to add flexibility into your strategy and evaluate what freight is urgent and needs to ship via air to not only mitigate risk but also capitalize on cost savings.

6. Geopolitical events

Geopolitical conflicts around the globe continue to impact supply chains. Due to the war in Ukraine, the airspace over the region remains closed, and airlines have avoided Russian airspace, forcing carriers to take longer routes over the Middle East. Now, with increasing tensions in the Middle East, including the Palestine-Israel conflict and political changes in Syria, it is likely other routes will need to be adjusted. Additionally, the diversions from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which began in October 2023, continue to significantly reduce space capacity, disrupt schedule reliability, and contribute to global port congestion.

Going Forward 

Going into 2025, diversification for supply chain agility remains crucial as it allows adaptability during the changing market conditions that the topics I mentioned can bring. Shippers have made significant progress in this area over the past few years, but there’s still much work to be done. Being an asset-light company, we have the ability to help our customers build more agility and flexibility across their supply chain because they’re not tied to one trade lane, region, or mode. This is critical so as disruptions clog up one area of the supply chain, we’re able to strategize and shift our customers’ freight to keep it moving despite the challenges.

  These trends are just a few that will shape the 2025 global supply chain. Sustainability, GenAI, and more will also have an impact. Keep in mind, every topic I mentioned has a ripple effect across the supply chain. A disruption at sea or a port strike can cascade down to significantly impact trucking and rail– to name just a couple examples.

  A healthy and responsible supply chain starts with understanding its interconnectedness. It is possible to see the full picture – and is something our teams do every day. In the new year, initiate conversations on these topics and ask questions about the tailwind effect. This will help you anticipate potential challenges and opportunities and determine the best strategy to protect your supply chain and your business objectives.

carbon emissions global trade attacks

IMO Chief Urges Action as Red Sea Attacks by Houthi Forces Disrupt Global Shipping

International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez has concluded a diplomatic tour of key Red Sea countries amid escalating maritime threats from Houthi forces. The crisis, which began with the hijacking of the MV Galaxy Leader in November 2023, has seen over a hundred drone and missile attacks on vessels in the area, significantly impacting global trade and seafarer safety. These attacks, reportedly motivated by the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, have resulted in four deaths, two sunken ships, and extensive vessel damage, prompting many shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, a costly and time-consuming detour.

Read also: Houthi Attacks Update: East-West Trade Braces for Uptick in Freight Costs in 2024

Dominguez’s diplomatic mission included high-level discussions in Djibouti, Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen, where he stressed the urgency of restoring safe navigation in the Red Sea. “The continuous attacks on ships and seafarers in the Red Sea are endangering innocent lives and affecting the entire shipping industry,” he stated, highlighting that international shipping underpins roughly 80% of global trade in goods.

The IMO is exploring ways to support affected nations and uphold the principle of freedom of navigation in the region, which plays a vital role in global maritime trade. “This region has strategic importance and potential for development to support sustainable maritime transport,” Dominguez emphasized.

However, challenges remain as Houthi forces have declared an ongoing blockade against Israeli-affiliated vessels, complicating efforts to stabilize the Red Sea shipping lanes. Yahya Sarea, the Houthi military spokesperson, recently asserted that vessels connected to Israel would remain targets, and alleged that many companies tied to Israel were divesting their assets in response to the attacks.

As the Red Sea crisis continues, Dominguez and the IMO are calling for unified global action to address the escalating threats and ensure safe passage in this critical maritime corridor.