C.H. Robinson’s Mike Short, president of Global Forwarding, provides insights into the trends and potential risks that shippers need to understand when planning for 2025 amid an increasingly disrupted shipping environment. With over 27 years of experience in global logistics and leading C.H. Robinson’s global freight division, which handles ~6,000 air and ocean shipments daily, Mike has seen and experienced a lot in the world of logistics. Here are some of the key considerations that Mike believes shippers need to pay attention to as the new year unfolds:
Read also: Supply Chain 2025 Predictions
As we approach 2025, the global supply chain landscape faces significant transformations. Global shippers are dealing with challenges like changing ocean carrier alliances, new government administrations, possible port strikes, and geopolitical conflicts. These events have already strained supply chains, and the situation is expected to intensify as we enter the first quarter.
The most important factor in navigating ongoing disruptions and building resiliency into supply chains at a time when they are growing increasingly complex globally, is to anticipate what is to come.
1. Global trade changes
Tariffs are top of mind for many as 2024 brought many trade and tariff changes and we expect more in the coming months. This includes, for example, the recent 35.5% tariff on imported electric vehicles from China by the European Union. Since over half the world went to the polls this year, it’s likely more global trade changes are on the horizon with new incoming leadership. For example, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump indicated that he plans to use tariffs during his presidency. And other country leaders have responded, which could start a cascade of trade changes across the globe, and therefore supply chain shifts.
Many shippers began diversifying several years ago after the pandemic highlighted the need for greater supply chain agility and are not starting at square one. In fact, looking specifically at the trans-Pacific lane, we’ve seen Chinese imported goods from the U.S. decrease 8 percent from 2017 to 2023. During that same time, other countries in Southeast Asia, Mexico, Canada, India, and even some Europe countries have increased almost equally across the board. It’s clear that shippers have already been shifting their supply chains to optimize their resilience and we expect that trend to continue.
Beyond near/re-shoring or decoupling from China, shippers are also looking for diversification across modes, such as ocean to air, full-container-load (FCL) to less-than-container-load (LCL), and even shifts in inland strategies. During the recent U.S. port strike, we helped many shippers execute different inland strategies, such as transloading, to make up for any time lost while their freight was stuck at the port.
2. Shifts in ocean carrier strategies
New ocean carrier alliances, which control 60% of the global container market, are bound to present a level of market disruption as we’ve seen during past alliance shifts. For example, while Gemini Cooperation’s strategy aims to reduce the number of port callings between Asia and North Europe by half – therefore shortening transit time by several days – smaller ports may be eliminated entirely from the route. This shift would not only impact ocean freight schedules, but will likely also shift how freight flows inland. The trans-Atlantic trade will also experience change with the Ocean and Premier Alliances forming a cooperation, which removes capacity between North America and Europe.
Another example is the new Port of Chancay in Peru, which aims to reduce shipping times between LATAM and Asia 10+ days by bypassing traditional routes through the U.S. Even if you’re not shipping between Asia and Peru, it is important to know that this new route not only bypasses a major consumer country, but could also consequently shifts rates and available capacity in other lanes.
3. Labor strikes
Many countries, including Canada, United States, Brazil, Australia, Italy, and India, have experienced port, rail and/or customs strikes this year. The jump in labor strikes started most notably in 2023, with a 280% year-over-year increase in activity. The trend continued in 2024 and isn’t expected to slow down. C.H. Robinson is already helping shippers prepare for a potential second U.S. port strike in January. Industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals are especially eager to create contingency plans since even a two-day strike could significantly disrupt operations due to their just-in-time inventory model.
4. Front-loading
Potential strikes, pending tariffs, and the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday have prompted shippers to front-load freight. While front-loading has typically been done via ocean, we are already seeing some priority freight shift to air in anticipation of a potential second U.S. port strike.
This behavior isn’t new — back in 2018, some shippers increased production and stockpiled freight before the U.S. Section 301 tariffs went into effect. The difference today is that front-loading is a common approach across a range of shippers. We will be watching how this enhanced focus on front-loading heading into 2025 may impact freight patterns as the year progresses.
5. Ecommerce boom
The ongoing shift of air capacity to support ecommerce activity exiting Asia continues to impact other lanes. Recently, rates spiked on the trans-Atlantic route due to aircraft being reassigned to the trans-Pacific for ecommerce shipments. This shift in capacity has led to increased rates and reduced capacity on smaller volume lanes, a trend expected to persist as ecommerce demand from Asia remains strong.
This industry will be one to watch as it continues to exert a significant influence on global air freight supply and demand. And as air forecasting becomes more difficult, it’s key to add flexibility into your strategy and evaluate what freight is urgent and needs to ship via air to not only mitigate risk but also capitalize on cost savings.
6. Geopolitical events
Geopolitical conflicts around the globe continue to impact supply chains. Due to the war in Ukraine, the airspace over the region remains closed, and airlines have avoided Russian airspace, forcing carriers to take longer routes over the Middle East. Now, with increasing tensions in the Middle East, including the Palestine-Israel conflict and political changes in Syria, it is likely other routes will need to be adjusted. Additionally, the diversions from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which began in October 2023, continue to significantly reduce space capacity, disrupt schedule reliability, and contribute to global port congestion.
Going Forward
Going into 2025, diversification for supply chain agility remains crucial as it allows adaptability during the changing market conditions that the topics I mentioned can bring. Shippers have made significant progress in this area over the past few years, but there’s still much work to be done. Being an asset-light company, we have the ability to help our customers build more agility and flexibility across their supply chain because they’re not tied to one trade lane, region, or mode. This is critical so as disruptions clog up one area of the supply chain, we’re able to strategize and shift our customers’ freight to keep it moving despite the challenges.
These trends are just a few that will shape the 2025 global supply chain. Sustainability, GenAI, and more will also have an impact. Keep in mind, every topic I mentioned has a ripple effect across the supply chain. A disruption at sea or a port strike can cascade down to significantly impact trucking and rail– to name just a couple examples.
A healthy and responsible supply chain starts with understanding its interconnectedness. It is possible to see the full picture – and is something our teams do every day. In the new year, initiate conversations on these topics and ask questions about the tailwind effect. This will help you anticipate potential challenges and opportunities and determine the best strategy to protect your supply chain and your business objectives.
